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The  impact  of  an  announcement  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  on  

the  stock  market  

 

 

Andrey  Fyodorov  

S1684582  

Supervisor:  dr.  Bo  Qin  

Co-­‐assessor:  drs.  Abdul  Rehman  Abbasi  

University  of  Groningen  

MSc  Business  Administration  –  Organisation  Management  &  Control  

Master  Thesis  

2013  

Abstract  

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Contents  

Introduction  ...  3   Literature  review  ...  6   CEO  turnover  ...  6   Securities  Market  ...  6   Regular  salary  ...  7   One-­‐dollar  salary  ...  7   CEO  Power  ...  8   Conceptual  model  ...  10   Methodology  ...  12  

Identifying  event  &  event  window  ...  12  

Sample  selection  ...  13  

Abnormal  and  cumulative  abnormal  returns  ...  13  

Average  abnormal  returns  ...  15  

Cumulative  average  abnormal  returns  ...  15  

Regression  ...  15  

Descriptive  statistics  ...  16  

Results  ...  18  

Market  returns  on  turnover  announcement  ...  18  

The  AAR  on  CEO  turnover  announcement  on  sample  ...  18  

The  CAAR  on  CEO  turnover  announcement  ...  19  

Market  returns  and  one-­‐dollar  CEO  announcements  ...  19  

The  AAR  on  one-­‐dollar  CEO  announcement  ...  19  

The  CAAR  returns  on  one-­‐dollar  CEO  announcement  ...  20  

The  relation  between  CEO  power  and  market  reaction  ...  20  

Market  returns  and  regular  salary  CEO  announcements  ...  22  

The  average  abnormal  returns  of  a  regular  salary  CEO  announcement  ...  22  

Cumulative  average  abnormal  returns  of  a  regular  salary  CEO  announcement  ...  23  

Conclusion  ...  24  

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Introduction  

 

Since   the   financial   crunch   of   2007   the   incentive   compensations   of   managers   is   under   attack,   from  the  public.  The  media  trumpets  every  year  list,  with  CEO  compensations,  who  were  paid   the   highest?   Who   received   the   biggest   bonuses?   CEOs   are   almost   nailed   to   a   pillory.   While   corporations  are  cutting  costs,  CEOs  are  receiving  huge  salaries  and  bonuses,  while  employees   are   losing   their   jobs.   There   is   an   increasing   pressure   from   the   internal   and   external   environment  to  cut  bonuses  for  the  top  management.  Institutions  and  corporate  governance   protecting   this   mechanism   of   reward   system   are   under   pressure.   Governments,   media   and   shareholders  are  demanding  that  managers  withdraw  their  bonuses  or  even  repay  them.  Since   the  managers  are  paid  excessive  salaries  and  bonuses,  for  bad  performance.    In  a  recent  event   of  2013  the  stock  price  of  SNS  REAAL  plummeted  and  a  government  bailout  was  in  order  for  the   bank  to  survive.  A  reporter  from  the  public  network  in  the  Netherland  blogged  that  the  CEO  of   SNS  REAAL  should  return  the  bonuses  he  had  received  in  the  previous  years.  As  a  reaction  a  lot   of   people   were   upset   and   started   threating   him,   he   had   to   submerge,   fearing   his   own   life.   Apparently  the  public  does  not  accept  huge  bailouts  and  bonuses,  during  a  recession.  

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According   to   (Rebhein.,   2007),   increasing   diverse   pressure   grows   to   curb   executive   pay.   Top   managers  justify  that  high  compensation  is  necessary  for  the  increasing  risks  of  taking  on  the   top  leadership  position.  In  1970,  the  CEO  from  Chrysler  reduced  his  pay  to  a  one-­‐dollar  salary,   with  stock  options.  Chrysler  was  then  struggling,  and  needed  government  help.  This  send  out  a   new   positive   message   to   both   the   government   and   the   public,   Chryslers   CEOs   was   willing   to   reduce   costs   while   working   for   a   buck.   This   was   controversy   to   the   system,   taking   a   CEO   position   and   not   accepting   large   salary   payments.   On   the   other   hand   he   received   huge   compensation  packages  based  in  stock  options,  camouflaging  his  intentions.  

The  BusinessWeek  wrote  in  2007:  “during  the  credit  crunch  that  CEOs  who  are  willing  to  accept   a  one-­‐dollar  salary,  imply  a  symbolic  gesture  to  employees,  the  public  and  investors”.  This  sends   out  a  very  strong  signal  to  the  investors,  that  the  CEO  will  be  only  rewarded  when  they  are  too.     Labor  unions  criticize  this  behavior,  according  them  it  is  merely  a  publicity  stunt,  by  egotistical   CEOs  who  are  paid  million  in  stock  and  option,  and  who  are  already  rich.    

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This  study  will  try  to  contribute  to  literature,  because  the  topic  of  a  one-­‐dollar  salary  is  new.   Monitoring  the  security  markets  and  what  the  effects  are,  on  the  turnover  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO   and   separating   the   sample   into   powerful   CEOs   and   less   powerful.   This   will   expand   the   knowledge  in  the  field  of  finance.    And  try  to  capture  the  message  the  one-­‐dollar  CEO  is  trying   to   send   out,   with   accepting   such   a   salary   package.   Does   the   stock   market   react   to   such   a   message?  How  will  the  market  evaluate  the  message  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO?  

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Literature  review  

 

The  Chief  Executive  officer  is  the  highest  executive  in  a  corporation  and  in  charge  of  the  total   management.   He   is   responsible   for   the   corporation.   CEO   compensation   exists   of   different   packages,  such  as  regular  salary,  stock  packages  and  reward  bonuses  and  performance  vested   stock   options,   such   as   a   one-­‐dollar   salary.   In   classic   agency   theory   it   is   assumed   that   CEO   compensation  contracts  are  an  arms-­‐length  transaction  that  provides  an  efficient  solution  for   the   shareholders   of   the   corporation   (Jensen   &   Mecking.,   1976).   The   CEO   uses   this   incentive   mechanism  to  extract  salary  from  the  shareholders,  in  whatsoever  form  (Bebchuk  et  al.,  2002).   Agency   theory   makes   sense   of   the   compensation   plans,   because   their   compensation   levels   demand   higher   management   skills   and   increased   risk   associated   with   taking   a   CEO   position   (Murphy  &  Zabojnik.,  2004)  The  primary  objective  of  a  corporation  is  to  maximize  shareholder   value   (Sundaram   et   al.,   2004).   This   study   will   make   a   distinction   between   compensation   contracts;  the  one-­‐dollar  CEO  versus  a  CEO  with  a  regular  salary,  and  the  reaction  of  the  stock   market,  to  an  announcement  in  turnover.  

CEO  turnover    

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is   assumed.   It   states:   “a   stocks   abnormal   return   at   time,   should   reflect   the   release   of   the   information  at  the  same  time”  (Basu.,  1977).  Any  information  released  before  then  should  have   no  effect  on  abnormal  returns  in  this  period,  because  all  available  information  has  already  been   incorporated   in   the   stock   price.   Assuming   the   market   is   efficient   and   all   information   is   incorporated.   The   stocks   return   known   only   in   the   future   cannot   influence   the   stock   return   either.  The  announcement  of  the  CEO  turnover  is  before  the  turnover  date,  and  the  market  has   already  incorporated  this  information.  

Securities  Market  

The  Securities  Act  of  1933  and  Exchange  Act  of  1934  provide  the  basic  regulatory  framework  for   the  United  States  for  the  public  trading  of  securities.  The  1933  Act  places  an  emphasis  on  the   issuing  of  new  securities.  The  1934  Act  extends  the  disclosure  requirements  of  all  the  available   securities  under  the  Act  of  1933,  which  are  traded  on  the  market  after  their  issue.    The  intent  of   the   registrations   statement   is   to   provide   potential   stockholders   with   all   the   available   information  to  make  a  reasonable  decision  on  the  stock.    Assuming  the  stock  price  includes  all   the  relevant  available  information.  The  security  markets  will  be  represented  by  the  S&P  500,  it   is   an   equity   index   that   is   one   of   the   most   followed   indices   and   it   is   considered   the   best   representation  of  the  market  of  the  United  States  economy  (The  National  Bureau  of  Economic   Research)  After  the  announcement  of  a  turnover  in  CEO  a  distinction  is  made  in  compensation   packages  the  first  is  the  regular  salary  and  the  second  the  one-­‐dollar  salary.  

Regular  salary  

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experience,  tenure  within  the  corporation  (Hogan  &  McPheters.,  1980).  This  results  in  higher   pay  level  than  the  rest  of  the  management.  It  is  also  expected  that  the  CEO  potentials  impact   the   corporation’s   performance.     Will   the   market   appreciate   the   announcement   of   a   regular   salary  CEO?  

One-­‐dollar  salary  

There  is  a  shift  in  a  trend  to  switching  to  a  one-­‐dollar  salary.  CEOs  of  corporation  such  as  Oracle,   Google,  Hewlett  &  Packaard,  Kinder  Morgan  and  Whole  Foods  have  already  implemented  such   a  reward  system  (The  Forbes.,  2007).  The  likelihood  of  a  one-­‐dollar  salary  increases,  when  the   CEO  is  rich,  overconfident  and  owns  a  sizeable  ownership  stake  in  the  corporation  (Dan  Zang  et   al.,  2011).  These  one-­‐dollar  salary  CEOs  seem  to  be  in  a  powerful  situation  in  which  significance   is   drawn   under   private   benefits.     The   Fortune   (2011)   wrote   that   one-­‐dollar   CEOs   gave   up   around   $610.000   in   annual   wages   but   gained   more   than   $2   million   in   incremental   options   awards.  Literature  suggests  that  there  is  an  alignment  with  CEO  and  shareholder  goals,  in  the   structure   of   compensation   (Jensen   &   Murphy.,   1990).   In   accordance   with   traditional   agency   theory  a  large  equity  based  compensation  plan  makes  the  CEO  behave  more  like  stockholders   and   thus   decrease   the   agency   costs   of   equity   (Jensen   and   Meckling.,   1976).   However   the   purpose  of  one-­‐dollar  CEO  salary  is  to  incent  the  CEO  to  take  on  greater  risks  and  benefit  the   firm  from  its  growth  opportunities  (Smith  &  Watts.,  1992).  This  is  the  result  of  taking  a  risky   position   in   receiving   a   one-­‐dollar   salary.   CEO   tends   to   take   different   positions   when   taking   a   one-­‐dollar  CEO,  a  more  in-­‐depth  view  will  be  provided  in  the  next  part,  focusing  on  CEO  power.    

CEO  Power    

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or  increasing  the  share  price  (Xuan.,  2009).    The  power  of  the  CEO  is  based  on  his  relation  with   the  shareholders,  when  the  CEO  is  in  the  board  he  has  more  power.    

The   second   measure   of   power   will   be   the   governance   structure   of   the   cooperation.   In   the   article   of   (Abernethy,   Kuand   &   Qin.,   2013),   they   mention   that   a   good   cooperate   governance   structure   will   determine   a   significant   executive   pay.   CEOs   have   various   incentives   to   support   arrangements  favorable  to  powerful  top  managers  (Morese  et  al.,  2011)  they  also  mention  that   poor  governance  structures  will  lead  to  more  power  to  the  CEO.  These  characteristics  of  board   and  ownership  structure  have  a  negative  relation  with  subsequent  cooperation  operations  and   stock   return   performance.   Cooperation’s   with   weaker   governance   structures   have   greater   agency   problems   (Core   et   al.,   1998).   He   found   that   cooperation’s   with   weaker   governance   structures  have  greater  agency  problems;  CEOs  with  greater  agency  problems  receive  greater   compensation.  A  measure  of  strong  or  weak  corporate  governance  will  be  based  if  the  board  is   presumed.   To   be   more   independent,   the   number   of   outside   directors   increases   proportionately   .The   corporate   governance   in   the   US   has   increasingly   shifted   towards   independent   boards   with   a   majority   of   outside   (independent)   directors.   Board   monitoring   effectiveness  may  manifest  itself  in  managerial  hiring  and  firing  decisions.  CEO  turnover  is  one   possible  measure  of  gauging  effectiveness.  The  paper  by  (Weisbach.,  1988)  tests  the  hypothesis   that   inside   and   outside   directors   behave   different,   in   their   decisions   to   remove   the   CEO.   A   distinction   will   be   made   between   an   outsider   and   insider   successor   type   of   CEO.   Inside   CEO   tend  to  have  accumulated  power  throughout  their  career  within  the  corporation,  thus  having   more  power.  

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Conceptual  model

 

 

During  this  part  hypothesis  will  be  formed  and  the  research  question.  A  distinction  will  be  made   between  the  dependent  and  independent  variables.  

This  research  will  consist  of  two  parts.  The  first  part  will  be  an  investigation  of  how  the  stock   market  reacts  to  a  CEO  turnover  based  on  the  whole  sample.  The  second  part  will  consist  of  the   reaction  of  the  stock  market  on  the  announcement  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  versus  a  regular  salary   CEO.  This  will  be  contrasted  to  the  power  of  the  one-­‐dollar  CEO.  Does  the  market  appreciate   the   announcement   of   a   one-­‐dollar   CEO,   based   on   power?   This   will   lead   to   the   following   research  question  for  this  study:  

How  does  the  stock  market  react  to  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  announcement?   From  the  research  question,  the  following  hypotheses  are  generated:  

Hypothesis    

Hypothesis  1   The  announcement  of  CEO  turnover  has  influence  on  the  abnormal  returns   Hypothesis  2   The  announcement  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  has  influence  on  the  abnormal  returns   Hypothesis  3   The  power  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  has  influence  on  the  abnormal  returns   Hypothesis  4   The  announcement  of  a  regular    salary  CEO  has  influence  on  the  abnormal  

returns  

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In  the  conceptual  model  above  the  CEO  turnover  announcement  is  the  independent  variable,  it   is   split   up   into   regular   and   one-­‐dollar   salary,   and   they   are   the   independent   variables.   The   independent   variables   will   have   an   influence   on   the   dependent   variable   the   stock   market   reaction.    Assuming  that  a  one-­‐dollar  CEOs  can  be  powerful  or  not,  a  new  variable  will  be  coded   for  the  CEO  power.  Indicating  that  power  of  the  CEO  can  influence  the  stock  market’s  reaction.   The   power   of   the   CEO   is   based   on   the   corporate   governance   structure,   camouflage   or   key   position  within  the  corporation  (board  member).    

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Methodology  

 

The  stock  market  reaction  on  the  announcement  of  a  CEO  turnover  can  measure  by  using  an   event   study.   Event   studies   have   been   used   in   a   wide   range   of   setting   including   finance   (MacKinlay  et  al.,  1997).    An  event  study  is  a  statistical  method  to  assess  the  impact  of  an  event   on   the   value   of   the   firm.   Event   studies   are   based   on   the   theoretical   framework   of   efficient   capital   market   and   the   notion   that   security   prices   include   all   information   available   to   the   market.   As   a   result   the   announcement   made   by   firms   provided   to   market   participant’s   information  it  can  be  impounded  into  the  market  price  (Konchitchki  &  O’Leary.,  2010).  In  the   methodology   the   framework   for   the   research   will   be   explained,   first   the   identification   of   the   event  will  be  explained,  followed  up  by  creating  the  event  window.  Further  it  will  be  elaborated   how  the  samples  are  chosen  and  how  the  returns  are  calculated.  

Identifying  event  &  event  window  

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The   normal   return   is   the   stock   return   of   the   individual  corporation  if  there  was  no  special   event   such   as   an   M&A.   To   calculate   the   normal   return   the   estimation   window   is   the   long  window  event  of  day’s  sets  from  [-­‐53  to  -­‐ 3].  The  estimation  period  is  before  the  event,  so  these  can  be  seen  as  the  normal  returns.    The   choice  of  the  estimation  period  is  arbitrary;  (Brown  &  Warner.,  1980),  for  this  event  a  50  day   estimation   window   is   used.     For   calculating   the   normal   return   of   a   stock  

the  mean  adjusted  model  is  used.  This  explains  the  normal  return  as  the   average  return  within  the  event  window.  The  following  formula  is  used  for   calculating  the  normal  return:  

 The  i  is  the  stock  index  and  the  T  is  the  numbers  of  days  during  the  event  window.   For   calculating   the   normal   return   of   a   stock,   the   daily   stock   return   for   the   estimated   window   was   found.   For   calculating   the   daily   return   the   following   formula  was  used:  

The  i  is  the  stock  index  and  t  refers  to  time  (day).  R  i,t  is  the  stock  return  for  day  t  and  stock  i;   Pi,t  is  stock  price  for  day  t  and  stock  i.  This  is  done  for  both  the  one-­‐dollar  CEOs  and  the  regular   dollar  CEOs.    

Sample  selection  

The  selection  of  the  sample  set  of  firms  to  be  included  in  the  analysis.  The  total  sample  size  for   this   study   is   207   CEOs,   from   public   traded   cooperation’s,   based   in   the   US.   Drawn   from   this   sample   the   average   abnormal   returns   and   the   cumulative   average   abnormal   returns   will   be   provided.  Data  will  be  provided,  to  measure  if  the  announcement  of  CEO  turnover  has  influence   on  the  returns.  The  findings  of  this  sample  consist  of  146  powerful  CEOs  from  the  Forbes  500   list.  The  other  61  are  one-­‐dollar  CEO,  they  were  found  using  LexisNexis  database.    

Abnormal  and  cumulative  abnormal  returns  

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examining  abnormal  returns  and  cumulative  abnormal  returns  (CAR);  it  indicates  the  extent  to   which  the  market  adjusts  the  firm’s  value  in  response  to  the  new  information  signal  obtained   through  the  firm-­‐related  announcement.  The  cumulative  abnormal  returns  are  expected  to  be   negative  or  positive  depending  on  whether  the  market  believe  that  the  turnover  of  the  CEO  will   result  in  incremental  negative  of  positive  future  cash  flows  (Konchitchki  &  O’Leary.,2012).  The   same  formula  is  used  for  calculating  the  expected  market  return  for  the  event  window;  the  S&P   500  provided  the  expected  market  return.  

For   calculating   the   historical   market   returns   for   the   estimation   window  the  following  formula  can  be  used:    

After   calculating   the   actual   return   and   the   expected   return   the   difference   can   be   calculated   providing  the  abnormal  return  formula:  

The  AR  is  the  abnormal  return,  the  R  is  the  actual  return  of  the  stock  within  the  event  window,   and  NR  is  the  normal  return  of  the  event  window.    

The  market  model  will  be  used,  to  increase  the  power  of  the  test  other  factors  such  as  beta  and   alpha   and   the   risk   free   rate   will   be   included   to   the   excess   return   of   the   market   portfolio   (S&P500).  The  abnormal  returns  will  be  generate  given  by  a  security  over  a  period  of  time  (-­‐53   to   –3).   The   expected   rate   of   return   is   the   estimated   return   based   on   the   CAPM   model,   mentioned  below.  The  Rs  is  the  return  on  the  return  of  the  stock  minus  the  risk  free  rate  for  the   current   day.   The   beta   and   alpha   are   calculated   using   the   long   window   return,   using   a   regression,  the  data  is  provided  in  excel.  

 

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Average  abnormal  returns  (AAR)  

For  the  average  abnormal  returns  the  actual  return  of  the  stock  for  that  day  is  taken,  subtract   the   expected   return   for   that   day   from   the   S&P   500   including   the   following   formula   for   calculating  the  abnormal  return:  Rs  –  ((alpha  +  beta*(Rmkt  –Rf)  +  Rf)).  This  is  done  before  the   announcement   day   [t-­‐1],   the   announcement   day   itself   [t=0]   and   the   day   after   the   announcement  day  [t=+1].  Averaging  the  result  for  each  day  creates  the  AAR  of  each  event  day.     Cumulative  average  abnormal  returns  (CAAR)  

The   next   step   is   to   calculate   the   cumulative   average   abnormal   returns   of   all   the   stocks.   The   following   formula   is   used   for   calculating  CAAR:  

The   results   are   provided   in   excel.  Providing   these   data   statistical  

test  in  SPSS  and  excel  can  be  performed.  The  goal  of  the  statistical  test  will  be  to  test  if  the   announcement  of  a  CEO  turnover  has  positive  or  negative  impact,  and  to  measure  the  impact   of  the  stock  market.  For  this  the  T-­‐test  method  can  be  used,  the  t-­‐test  is  a  test  to  see  whether   the  null  hypothesis  is  supported  or  not.  It  can  determine  whether  the  implication  of  two  data   sets  is  significantly  different  from  each  other  or  not.    This  requires  the  testing  of  the  previous   stated  hypotheses.  This  indicates  that  the  announcement  of  the  regular  or  one-­‐dollar  CEOs  and   the  CAAR  all  should  be  zero,  implying  that  the  announcement  has  no  influence  on  the  reaction   of  the  stock  market.  

Regression  

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Descriptive  statistics  

 

The   next   table   provides   the   descriptive   statistics   on   the   returns   on   various   event   windows,   using  the  market  return  and  comparing  them  with  the  regular  versus  the  one-­‐dollar  CEO.  Both   the  median  and  the  mean  AAR  and  CAAR  on  different  event  days  and  windows  for  a  regular   CEO   they   are   both   positive   and   significant.   The   mean   has   one   main   disadvantage;   it   is   particularly  susceptible  to  the  influence  of  outliers.  These  are  values  that  are  unusual  compared   to  the  rest  of  the  data  set  by  being  especially  small  or  large  in  numerical  value.  The  median  is   less   affected   by   outliers   and   skewed   data.   All   tests   are   significant.   Indicating   there   is   a   difference  between  the  one-­‐dollar  salary  CEO  and  the  regular  CEO  turnover  announcement  for   both  the  median  and  the  mean.  For  this  table  ANOVA  and  the  Mann-­‐Whitney  tests  are  used  to   compare  mean  and  median,  representatively.  

One  dollar  CEOs  versus  regular  salary  CEOs    

Variable   Regular  

 (N=146)  

One  Dollar   (N=61)  

p-­‐value  

Mean     Median   Mean     Median   t-­‐test   Mann-­‐   Whitney   AAR  -­‐1   0.0030   0.006   -­‐0.0251   -­‐0.0308   <0.01   <0.01   AAR  0   0.0028   0.0043   -­‐0.0101   -­‐0.0146   <0.05   <0.01   AAR  +1   0.0082   0.0077   -­‐0.0148   -­‐0.0285   <0.01   <0.01   CAAR  [-­‐1]   0.0003   0.0062   -­‐0.0251   -­‐0.0242   <0.01   <0.01   CAAR[-­‐1,0]   0.0058   0.0090   -­‐0.0352   -­‐0.0516   <0.01   <0.01   CAAR[-­‐1,+1]   -­‐0.0500   0.0121   -­‐0.0500   -­‐0.0781   <0.01   <0.01     B. Qin 8-11-31 24:16

Comment [1]: Keep 4 decimal palaces for

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The   next   table   provides   the   median   and   mean   comparison   between   the   less   powerful   and   powerful  CEOs.    The  mean  and  median  between  the  samples  is  compared  in  terms  of  AAR  and   CAAR  for  different  event  days  and  windows.  After  the  day  of  the  announcement,  the  mean  and   median  for  the  powerful  CEOs  differs,  this  can  be  the  result  of  outliers.    When  p-­‐value  is  >  0.05,   the  difference  in  mean  and  median  between  the  two  groups  is  significant.  This  is  the  case  for   AAR   0,   CAAR   [-­‐1,   0]   and   CAAR   [-­‐1,   +1].   When   the   p-­‐value   is   <   0.05   the   mean   and   median   between  the  groups  is  not  significant.  This  is  the  case  for  AAR-­‐1,  AAR+1  and  CAAR  [-­‐1].    

 

Powerful  CEOs  versus  less  powerful  CEOs  (both  in  one  dollar  salary  sample)  

Variable   Powerful  CEOs  (N=40)   Less  powerful  CEOs   (N=21)  

p-­‐value   Mean     Median   Mean     Median   t-­‐test   Mann-­‐

Whitney   AAR  -­‐1   -­‐.0305   -­‐0.0241   -­‐.0148   -­‐0.0241   .253   .400   AAR  0   -­‐.0175   -­‐0.0188   .0057   -­‐0.0063   .044   .012   AAR  +1   -­‐.0240   -­‐0.0305   .0052   -­‐0.0157   .195   .053   CAAR  [-­‐1]   -­‐.0305   -­‐0.0241   -­‐.0148   -­‐0.0242   .253   .400   CAAR[-­‐1,0]   -­‐.0490   -­‐0.0520   -­‐.0076   -­‐0.0242   .032   .042   CAAR[-­‐1,+1]   -­‐.0743   -­‐0.0806   -­‐.0038   -­‐0.0424   .029   .012   B. Qin 20-6-13 20:23

Comment [2]: When  p-­‐value  is  less  than  

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Results  

 

This  part  will  provide  the  results  of  the  event  study  and  the  regression  analysis  of  the  research.     All  the  model  and  calculations  can  be  found  in  excel.  A  brief  summary  of  the  results  is  provided   in  the  appendix.  The  first  part  consists  of  the  Average  Abnormal  returns  (AAR)  and  Cumulative   Average   Abnormal   Returns   (CAAR)   of   an   announcement   of   a   CEO   turnover.   The   second   part   consists   of   the   announcement   of   a   turnover   of   a   one-­‐dollar   CEO.   The   one-­‐dollar   CEO   will   be   separated  into  CEO  with  power  and  CEO  with  less  power.  The  third  part  provides  the  AAR  and   the  CAAR  for  the  regular  salary  CEO.  

Market  returns  on  turnover  announcement  

In  this  table  you  can  find  the  average  abnormal  returns  of  a  CEO  announcement  turnover,  and   its  market  reaction.  Before  the  day  of  announcement  [t-­‐1],  on  the  announcement  day  [t=0]  and   the  day  after  the  announcement  [t+1].  The  AAR  for  the  day  after  the  announcement  is  made,   that  a  CEO  will  be  replaced,  has  a  positive  AAR  of  0.0014.  The  day  after  the  announcement  is   taken,  to  measure  the  impact  of  the  announcement.  This  is  statistical  significant  with  p-­‐value  <   0.01.   This   is   supported   by   the   findings   of   (Huson,   Malatesta,   &   Parrino.,   2004),   they   suggest   that   management   turnover   induces   a   higher   expected   corporate   performance   through   increased   managerial   quality.   These   finding   are   also   supported   by   (Davidson   et   al.,   1990),   where   the   announcement   of   a   CEO   turnover   leads   to   positive   abnormal   returns.   The   market   appreciates  the  announcement  of  a  CEO  turnover,  leading  to  positive  AAR  after  the  day  of  the   announcement.  

The  AAR  on  CEO  turnover  announcement  on  sample    

Day   AAR   p-­‐value  

-­‐1   -­‐0.0052   6.6833E-­‐71  

0   -­‐0.0009   4.4581E-­‐07  

B. Qin 17-6-13 10:35

Comment [3]: To  separate  the  market  

response  to  CEO  turnover  alone  from  the   repsonse  to  one-­‐dollar-­‐salary  news,  first  pool   all  observations  (including  one-­‐dollar  sample   and  regular  salary  sample),  report  AAR  and   CAAR,  and  check  if  there  are  statistically   significant.  After  that,  partition  the  full  sample   into  one-­‐dollar  subsample  and  regular  salary   subsample  (as  what  you  have  done).  Finally   compare  the  sign    and  magnitude  of  market   response  with  different  samples.  

B. Qin 17-6-13 10:35

Comment [4]: However,  their  findings  do  

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This   table   provides   the   CAAR   for   the   event.   The   second   step   is   to   include   the   cumulative   average  abnormal  returns  for  the  occurring  event.  The  announcement  of  CEO  turnover  has  a   negative  CAAR  of  0.0048,  with  p-­‐value  <  0.01,  this  test  is  significant.  The  results  are  supported   by  (Dedman  and  Lin.,  2002)  where  the  negative  stock  price  reaction  may  reflect  the  financial   costs  of  compensating  the  departing  CEO  for  loss  of  office,  or  new  information  that  is  disclosed   simultaneously   with   the   turnover   announcement   of   the   CEO   leading   to   negative   cumulative   abnormal  returns  for  the  occurring  event.  

The  CAAR  on  CEO  turnover  announcement  

Day   CAAR   p-­‐value  

[-­‐1]   -­‐0.0052   6.6833E-­‐71  

[-­‐1,0]   -­‐0.0062   3.0679E-­‐83  

[-­‐1,+1]   -­‐0.0048   8.3702E-­‐65  

Market  returns  and  one-­‐dollar  CEO  announcements  

This   table   provides   the   result   of   the   AAR   on   the   announcement   of   a   one-­‐dollar   CEO.   The   average  abnormal  returns  for  the  announcement  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  -­‐0.0148,  with  p-­‐value  <   0.01,  acknowledging  that  the  announcement  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  salary  has  a  negative  influence   on   the   average   abnormal   returns   of   a   corporation   in   the   US   at   the   CEO   turnover   announcement.  All  results  of  AAR  are  significant  with  p-­‐value  <  0.01.  The  stock  market  reacts   negative  to  the  news  of  a  CEO  turnover  with  a  one-­‐dollar  salary.  

The  AAR  on  one-­‐dollar  CEO  announcement  

Day   AAR   p-­‐value  

-­‐1   -­‐0.0251   5.4642E-­‐39  

0   -­‐0.0101   1.0613E-­‐18  

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This  table  covers  the  CAAR  for  the  one-­‐dollar  CEO  for  the  event.  The  second  step  is  to  include   the  cumulative  average  abnormal  returns  for  the  occurring  events.  For  the  one-­‐dollar  CEO  the   CAAR  for  the  event  is  -­‐0.0500,  with  p-­‐value  <  0.01,  indicating  that  the  announcement  of  a  one-­‐ dollar   CEO   has   negative   influence   on   the   cumulative   abnormal   returns.   Both   findings   are   supported  by  (Lubatkin  et  al.,1987)  where  the  announcement  of  a  CEO  turnover  has  negative   influence  on  the  abnormal  returns.    The  stock  market  does  not  appreciate  the  announcement   of  a  one-­‐  dollar  CEO.      

The  CAAR  returns  on  one-­‐dollar  CEO  announcement  

Day   CAAR   p-­‐value  

[-­‐1]   -­‐0.0251   1.0928E-­‐38  

[-­‐1,0]   -­‐0.0352   3.8410E-­‐47  

[-­‐1,+1]   -­‐0.0500   4.4000E-­‐56    

The  relation  between  CEO  power  and  market  reaction  

 In  the  next  part  a  distinction  is  made  between  the  power  of  a  CEO  within  the  firm,  when  the   CEO  is  powerful  he  is  coded  as  1  when  he  has  less  power  he  is  coded  0.  This  is  based  on  criteria   if   he   is   a   board   member,   the   corporate   governance   structure   of   the   corporation   (insider   or   outsider  type)  and  if  he  has  voluntary  accepted  the  one-­‐dollar  salary,  or  it  was  due  pressure   from  the  public.  The  paper  of  Charles  A.  Dice  –  why  do  some  CEOs  work  for  a  one-­‐dollar  salary?   Provides  a  list  of  CEOs  whom  voluntary  took  a  one-­‐dollar  salary,  the  missing  CEOs  are  found   using  news  announcement  surrounding  the  acceptance  of  a  one-­‐dollar  salary.  Orbis  provided   data   for   the   governance   structure   and   the   compensation   of   the   board.   Statistics   provided   indicate  that  for  both  most  CEOs  who  accept  a  one-­‐dollar  salary,  are  powerful.  The  Average  is   0.65.  

B. Qin 13-10-31 09:28

Comment [5]: What  you  mean  by  

governance  structure.  What  features  did  you   really    look  at?  Articulate  it!  

B. Qin 17-6-13 10:35

Comment [6]: How  did  you  know  CEO  

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Less  power  vs.  power,  one-­‐dollar  CEO       0   1   average   0.10   -­‐  1.45     N   DF(n-­‐1)   21  20   40  29   variance   0.0047   0.0075   Standard  deviation     0.0690   0.0867   t-­‐test   0.3148   3.7297   p  value   0.3781   0.0003  

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Market  returns  and  regular  salary  CEO  announcements  

This  part  of  the  results  covers  the  market  returns  on  an  announcement  turnover  for  a  regular   salary   CEO.   In   the   average   abnormal   returns   of   a   regular   salary   CEO   announcement   are   provided,   and   how   the   market   reacts   to   it.   The   average   abnormal   return   after   the   announcement   day   is   0.0100,   with   p-­‐value   <   0.01.   All   the   values   are   statistically   significant.   Indicating   that   the   announcement   of   a   regular   salary   CEO   has   influence   on   the   abnormal   returns  in  the  US,  on  the  day  after  the  announcement  day.  The  stock  market  reacts  positive  to   this  announcement  and  appreciates  the  positive  AAR’s.  This  is  supported  by  (Huson,  Parrino,  &   Starks.,  2001),  which  found  positive  abnormal  returns  with  the  turnover  of  a  CEO;  they  suggest   that   shareholders   assess   the   quality   of   the   board   on   hiring   a   new   CEO   resulting   in   positive   company  performance.  

The  average  abnormal  returns  of  a  regular  salary  CEO  announcement  

Day   AAR   p-­‐value  

-­‐1   -­‐0.0010   0.0073  

0   0.0011   0.0035  

+1   0.0100   2.70E-­‐55  

 

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announcement  of  management  changes.  This  is  often  due  the  factor  that  those  firms  are  often   financially  distressed.  However  the  factor  of  financial  distress  is  not  provided  in  this  study.  

Cumulative  average  abnormal  returns  of  a  regular  salary  CEO  announcement  

Day   CAAR   p-­‐value  

[-­‐1]   -­‐0.0009   0.0146  

[-­‐1,0]   0.0001   0.7920  

[-­‐1,+1]   0.0100   1.574E-­‐55  

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Conclusion  

 

This  study  examines  the  announcement  of  a  CEO  turnover  and  the  impact  of  the  stock  market   in  the  US  between  1992  and  2013.  The  sample  size  consisted  of  146  regular  salary  CEOs  and  62   one-­‐dollar  CEOs.    The  AAR  on  the  first  day  after  the  announcement  for  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  is  -­‐ 1.48,  with  p-­‐value  <  0.01.  This  is  statistical  significant,  thus  we  can  accept  hypothesis  1:  “The   announcement   of   a   one-­‐dollar   CEO   has   influence   on   the   abnormal   returns”.   However   the   announcement   of   a   one-­‐dollar   CEO   has   negative   influence   on   the   AAR.     The   CAAR   for   the   occurring  event  [-­‐1,  +1]  has  a  CAAR  of  -­‐0.005,  with  p-­‐value  <  0.01.  It  can  be  assumed  that  the   announcement  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  has  influence  on  the  abnormal  returns;  however  these  are   negative,  for  the  occurring  event.  The  stock  market  does  not  appreciate  the  announcement  of  a   one-­‐dollar  CEO.    

The  one-­‐dollar  group  was  divided  into  powerful  and  less  powerful  CEOs,  based  on  the  criteria   of;  public  outrage,  if  the  CEO  accepted  his  one-­‐dollar  salary  voluntary  or  did  it  to  camouflage  his   real   intentions.   Secondly   how   strong   or   weak   the   corporate   governance   structure   (insider   or   outsider)  is,  and  lastly  if  he  is  a  board  member  or  not.    All  these  factors  contribute  to  the  power   of  the  CEO  and  his  real  intentions  in  accepting  a  one-­‐dollar  salary.    The  sample  consist  of  21  less   powerful  CEOs  and  42  powerful  CEOs  The  AAR  for  the  less  powerful  CEO  on  the  announcement   day  is  0.10,  this  is  positive  however  it  has  a  p-­‐value  of  0.37  this  is  not  statistical  significant  at  p-­‐ value  <  0.10.  The  powerful  CEO  has  an  AAR  of  -­‐1.45  on  the  announcement  day,  significant  at  p-­‐ value  <  0.01.  The  second  hypothesis  was:  ‘’the  power  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  has  influence  on  the   abnormal  returns’’.  The  less  powerful  CEO  has  no  significant  influence  on  the  AAR  during  the   announcement   data;   however   the   powerful   CEO   has   influence   on   the   AAR.   The   one-­‐dollar   salary  announcement  can  be  a  bold  statement  of  confidence  and  risk  seeking  activities.  Since   the  CEO  will  be  interested  in  increasing  the  stock  price  in  the  short  run.  He  will  be  risk  seeking,   stockholders   who   are   risk   averse   will   not   appreciate   the   announcement   of   one-­‐dollar   salary   (Loureiro  et  al.,  2011).  A  powerful  CEO  can  be  the  indication  of  a  poor  corporate  governance  

B. Qin 13-10-31 10:36

Comment [7]: Provide  some  implications  

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structure  or  he  tries  to  camouflage  his  real  intention.  This  is  supported  of  the  negative  AAR  of  -­‐ 1.45  and  CAAR  on  the  day  after  the  announcement.  

The  regular  salary  CEO  sample  has  an  AAR  of  0.01  on  day  after  the  announcement.  With  p-­‐value   <  0.01,  this  is  statistically  significant.  The  CAAR  for  the  occurring  event  is  0.0100  with  a  p-­‐value   of  <  0.01;  this  is  significant.  The  third  hypothesis  is:    “The  announcement  of  a  regular  salary  CEO   has  influence  on  the  abnormal  returns”.    This  hypothesis  can  be  accepted,  with  p-­‐value  <  0.01.   The  announcement  of  a  regular  salary  CEO  has  positive  influence  on  the  AAR  and  the  CAAR’s   event  window.    This  can  be  supported  by  the  findings  of  (Furtado  &  Rozeff.,  1987),  when  there   is  a  change  in  the  top  management  the  corporation  shifts  a  signal  in  the  corporation’s  policy,   and  therefore  raise  shareholders  wealth.    

This  study  captures  the  stock  market  reaction  on  the  one-­‐dollar  salary  turnover  announcement.   Is  it  a  movement  towards  an  optimal  contract  were  the  CEO  aligns  the  shareholders  interest  or   it  is  rather  a  move  to  camouflage  their  real  intentions?  Is  it  just  a  tool  to  avoid  public  outrage  in   extracting  excessive  rents?  This  study  has  shown  that  the  stock  market  does  not  appreciate  the   announcement   of   a   powerful   CEO   with   a   one-­‐dollar   salary.   When   the   corporate   governance   structure   is   weak,   or   the   CEO   is   a   board   member   or   he   is   trying   to   camouflage   his   real   intentions   the   stock   market   reacts   negative   to   this   type   of   powerful   one-­‐dollar   CEO   announcements.  The  results  on  less  powerful  one-­‐dollar  salary  CEO  are  not  significant,  however   the  AAR  is  positive  with  0.10,  more  research  should  be  done  on  this,  by  increasing  the  sample   size.    

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higher  expected  corporate  performance  through  increase  managerial  quality,  creating  positive   abnormal  returns  for  the  regular  salary  CEO.    

 AAR’s  of  CEO  turnover,  base  &  one-­‐dollar  salary  

  CAAR’s  of  CEO  turnover,  base  &  one-­‐dollar  salary  

 

The   tables   provide   a   summary   of   the   AAR’s   and   CAAR’s   for   CEO   turnover   and   for   both   the   regular   and   one-­‐dollar   salary   and   the   whole   sample.     The   stock   market   does   appreciate   the  

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AAR  and  CAAR  decrease.  The  stock  market  however  appreciates  the  announcement  of  a  new   regular  salary  CEO;  the  AAR  and  CAAR  are  positive  and  increase.    To  conclude  the  answer  on  the   research   question   can   be   provided,   the   research   question   was:   “How   does   the   stock   market   react   to   a   one-­‐dollar   CEO   announcement?”   The   stock   market   does   not   appreciate   the   announcement  of  a  CEO  turnover  with  a  one-­‐dollar  salary  

Limitations  &  further  research  

The  limitation  of  this  research  is  that  it  is  based  on  press  release  date  announcement.  Inside   information   such   as   CEO   turnover,   can   be   known   before   the   announcement   is   made   to   the   public.  These  announcement  can  result  in  stock  trading  with  preempt  information,  or  it  can  be   leaked  to  the  public,  biasing  the  internal  validity  of  this  research.    Another  bias  of  this  research   is  the  small  sample  of  the  one-­‐dollar  CEOs,  with  low  power.  This  can  lead  to  a  Type  II  error.     The   third   limitation   is   the   choice   of   the   CAMP   model;   it   includes   factors   for   calculating   the   expected  return.  But  there  are  different  models  such  as  the  Fama-­‐French  model  which  is  more   extended  it  includes  three  factors  into  the  model  the  small  market  capitalization  (SMB)  and  the   high  market  ration  (HML).  The  only  factors  included  for  this  research  were  the  market  reaction   on   the   announcement.   Other   factors   can   influence   the   turnover   of   a   CEO   such   as   the   performance  or  the  financial  position  which  were  not  included.  

This  research  can  be  the  basis  for  further  research  on  the  new  topic  of  the  one-­‐dollar  CEO.  The   US   has   is   going   to   accept   a   new   bill   in   which   the   CEO   has   to   wait   to   cash   in   his   stock.   This   increases  the  long-­‐term  goals  of  the  corporation,  instead  of  short-­‐term  growth  and  increasing   stock  price.    

 

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Appendix  

 

Announcement  of  CEO  turnover-­‐  AAR  

AAR   -­‐0.0053   -­‐0.0010   0.0014  

AAAR   -­‐0.0016          

AAR-­‐AAAR^2   0.000013553   0.000000405   0.000009274  

Degrees  of  freedom  (n-­‐1)   206          

variance   0.00001          

Standard  deviation   0.0027827547          

N   207          

    AAR   T-­‐test   t-­‐test  p  value  

t-­‐1   -­‐0.53%   27.39070627   6.68326E-­‐71  

t=0   -­‐0.10%   5.068212561   4.45814E-­‐07  

t=+1   0.14%   7.387900857   1.82622E-­‐12  

 

Announcement  of  CEO  turnover-­‐  CAAR  

CAAR   -­‐0.0053   -­‐0.0063   -­‐0.0048  

CAAAR   -­‐0.0055          

CAAR-­‐CAAAR^2   0.000000031   0.000000645   0.000000392  

Degrees  of  freedom(n-­‐1)   206          

variance   0.00001          

Standard  deviation   0.0027827547          

N   207          

    AAR   T-­‐test   t-­‐test  p  value  

[-­‐1]   -­‐0.53%   27.39070627   6.68326E-­‐71  

[-­‐1.0]   -­‐0.63%   32.45891883   3.0679E-­‐83  

1,+1]   -­‐0.48%   25.07101797   8.37019E-­‐65  

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Announcement  of  regular  salary  AAR  

AAR   -­‐0.0010   0.0011   0.0100  

AAAR   0.0034          

AAR-­‐AAAR^2   0.000018790   0.000005197   0.000043752  

Degrees  of  freedom  (n-­‐1)   145          

variance   0.00002          

Standard  deviation   0.0047518173          

               

    AAR   T-­‐test   t-­‐test  p  value  

t-­‐1   -­‐0.10%   2.471623423   0.007303697  

t=0   0.11%   2.735772358   0.003500577  

t=+1   1.00%   25.27491185   2.70195E-­‐55  

 

Announcement  of  regular  salary  CAAR  

CAAR   -­‐0.0010   0.0001   1.008%  

AAAR   0.0031          

AAR-­‐AAAR^2   0.000018790   0.000010596   0.000045142  

Degrees  of  freedom  (n-­‐1)   145          

variance   0.00002          

Standard  deviation   0.0049842289          

               

    CAAR   T-­‐test   t-­‐test  p  value  

[-­‐1]   -­‐0.10%   2.471623423   0.014607395  

[-­‐1.0]   0.01%   0.264148934   0.792040221  

[-­‐1,+1]   1.01%   25.53906079   1.57497E-­‐55  

 

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Announcement  of  one-­‐dollar  CEO  AAR  

Average  abnormal  return   -­‐0.0251   -­‐0.0101   -­‐1.479%  

AAAR   -­‐0.0167          

AAR-­‐AAAR^2   0.000070921   0.000042873   0.000003511  

Degrees  of  freedom  (n-­‐1)   60          

variance   0.000039102          

Standard  deviation   0.00625314091252979          

               

    AAR   T-­‐test   t-­‐test  p  value  

t-­‐1   -­‐2.51%   31.07455344   5.46417E-­‐39  

t=0   -­‐1.01%   12.5316694   1.06128E-­‐18  

t=+1   -­‐1.48%   18.32157601   1.47469E-­‐26  

 

Announcement  of  one-­‐dollar  CEO  CAAR  

CAAR   -­‐0.0010   0.0001   1.008%  

AAAR   0.0031          

AAR-­‐AAAR^2   0.000018790   0.000010596   0.000045142  

Degrees  of  freedom  (n-­‐1)   145          

variance   0.00002          

Standard  deviation   0.0049842289          

               

    CAAR   T-­‐test   t-­‐test  p  value  

[-­‐1]   -­‐0.10%   2.471623423   0.014607395  

[-­‐1.0]   0.01%   0.264148934   0.792040221  

[-­‐1,+1]   1.01%   25.53906079   1.57497E-­‐55  

 

CEO  power  and  the  announcement  of  a  one-­‐dollar  CEO  

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