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Bijlagen:
Blik op de toekomst
Een onderzoek naar de toekomstige Europese truckmarkt
H.R. Jansen
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Inhoudsopgave
Bijlage 1: Uitnodiging dealerenquête ... 3
Bijlage 2: Herinnering dealerenquête ... 4
Bijlage 3: Dealerenquête vragenlijst... 5
Bijlage 4: Interviews experts truckmarkt ... 9
Bijlage 5: Bestaande gegevens segmenten... 11
Bijlage 6: Relatie leading indicators, trends, totale truckregistraties en trucksegmenten... 14
Bijlage 7: Bestaande gegevens trends ... 15
Bijlage 8: Resultaten dealerenquête ... 28
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Bijlage 1: Uitnodiging dealerenquête
Dear sir or madam,
You are invited to participate to the dealer survey. Since your company, [!NQbedrijfsnaam!], is a dealer in [!NQland!].
It is of great importance to forecast product demand. Judgmental forecasting is one of the methods to conduct forecasting. To collect opinions from experts of the truck market will result in a deeper understanding. Dealers are in close touch with the customer and have insight information of the industry.
The enclosed survey of European dealers aims to gather information on the possible developments of the European truck market in ten years time. We would like to know what the opinions of dealers across Europe are about the future European truck market. How will the market develop? Sixteen possible trends were formulated by interviewing key people from branch organizations of the truck market. What effects do the trends regarding economy, freight market and government policy, have on new truck registration in the future?
I am a student of the management and organization department of the University of Groningen. This research is part of my study.
It will be of great importance to this project to receive your input. You may be assured that the confidentiality of your response will be respected.
The results of this survey will be summarized in a report and sent to all interested participants. In this way you will get further inside of truck demand in the future. If you have questions regarding this survey, you can contact me by email: h.r.jansen@student.rug.nl
Thank you for your assistance, Yours sincerely,
H.R. Jansen
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Bijlage 2: Herinnering dealerenquête
Dear sir or madam,
Last week a questionnaire seeking your input about forecasting the European Truck market was mailed to you. [!NQbedrijfsnaam!] was included in the population of businesses. Truck dealers have an expert insight into the truck market. Dealer organizations are in close touch with the customer.
If you have already completed the survey, please accept my sincere thanks. If not, I would appreciate it if you could do so. It is important that data about your company will be included in this study if the results are to accurately represent the opinion of dealers across Europe about future truck demand.
Completing the questionnaire will take no more then 15 minutes. Respondents include principal/director, after sales manager, parts manager and finance manager.
The results of this survey will be summarized in a report and sent to all interested participants. In this way you will get further inside in future truck demand.
Yours sincerely, H.R. Jansen
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Bijlage 3: Dealerenquête vragenlijst
De vragenlijst is in deze bijlage weergegeven. De vragenlijst is in het Engels afgenomen. De vragenlijst is in vier secties onderverdeeld. A: algemeen, B: voorspelling, B1: Economie, B2: vrachtvervoer en B3: Overheidsmaatregelen. De antwoordmogelijkheden zijn van de drie laatste secties gelijk. De
antwoordmogelijkheden zijn alleen in sectie B1: voorspelling opgenomen. A: General
1: What’s your job title? [ ] Dealer principal/ director [ ] After sales manager [ ] Parts manager [ ] Manager Finance [ ] Other
2: How many years do you have experience in the truck business? [ ] <1 year
[ ] 1-2 years [ ] 2-5 years [ ] 5< years
3: At which country is your company based? [ ] Austria [ ] Belgium [ ] Bulgaria [ ] Cyprus [ ] Czech Republic [ ] Estonia [ ] Finland [ ] France [ ] Germany [ ] Great Britain [ ] Hungary [ ] Ireland [ ] Italy [ ] Latvia [ ] Lithuania [ ] Netherlands [ ] Poland [ ] Portugal [ ] Slovak Republic [ ] Slovenia [ ] Spain [ ] Sweden [ ] Romania
6 [ ] DAF service dealer
[ ] DAF Trucks sales dealer [ ] DAF service support points [ ] DAF service and sales dealer [ ] Other
B: Forecasting
In this segment I would like you to ask to give your opinion about the development of the European truck market. Its about the total amount of new truck registrations in Europe. The survey is distinguishing truck type (Rigid or tractor), axle configuration (2, 3, 4 and more axles) and vehicle weight (light and heavy segment) as product segments.
I have conducted multiple interviews with experts of the truck market. Likely trends influencing the truck market were established. What’s your opinion about the influence the trends have on the truck market? The trends are about the economy, the freight market and government policy.
Picture of a rigid truck:
Picture of a tractor truck:
Trend 0: How will the European truck market develop in ten years time?
Strong decrease (--) Decrease (-) Stable (=) Increase (+) Strong increase (++) No Opinion Total of new truck registrations ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () Truck type Rigid ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () Articulated ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () Axleconfiguration 2 axle ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () 3 axle ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () 4 axle and more ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () Weightclass Trucks over 3,5t under 16t ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () Heavy Trucks over 16t ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () B1: Economy
7 (The economies of European Union member states are expected to grow with 2,24% a year. The economy is the most important driver of the freight market)
Trend 2: What effect does the expansion of the European Union have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(The European Union is expanding. New member states such as Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are already boosting the economy of Europe. Candidate and potential candidate countries are Croatia, Macedonia, Turkey, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia. The expansion increases the total GDP and population size of the European Union.)
Trend 3: What effect does the economic rise of the new member states have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(Like the economies of Spain and Ireland for example. When they joined the European Union those economies were flourishing. Economists believe the
economies of the new member states like Poland will undergo a similar trend. The economies of the new member states will soon catch up with the old member states)
B2: Freight transport
Trend 1: What effect does the predicted annual growth off 2% of the total freight market have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(The freight market is a important key driver for the truck market)
Trend 2: What effect does the increase of market share of road freight transport in comparison to other transport modes have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(Road transport has the advantage over other transport modes, recent figures show that road transport is winning market share over other modes. Other modes are rail, aviation, inland navigation)
Trend 3: What effect does the increase of the length of transport have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(International transport is growing faster then national transport)
Trend 4: What effect does the change of the Location of the main European traffic routes have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(As the European Union is expanding the production locations and the demand market is becoming more distant, for instance Russia is more and more a place for cheaper labor)
Trend 5: What effect does the increase in competition of the road freight market have on new truck registrations in ten years time?
(Operators have to take action to save costs to be competitive, for instance collaborations between operators, use of lease contracts, less empty rides etc) Trend 6: What effect has the decrease in percentage of transported bulk goods have on new truck registration in ten years time?
8 Trend 1: What effect does new infrastructure tax policy have on new truck
registration in ten years time?
(For example the German LKW−MAUT toll system, a governmental tax for trucks based on the distance driven in kilometers, number of axles and the emission category of the truck)
Trend 2: What effect does new environmental zone policy for inner cities have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(More and more governments intensify the rules for environmental friendly trucks to allow access to the inner cities. Other type of access restrictions are license or permits, vehicle masses and dimensions, time restrictions)
Trend 3: What effect does a price increase of fuel have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(fuel costs are around 20% of the total costs operators have according to research) Trend 4: What effect does a government incentive for cleaner vehicles have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(Financial incentive of governments for trucks which comply to even cleaner emission standards who aren’t required yet)
Trend 5: What effect does an approval of long and heavy vehicles on European roads have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(Countries like the Netherlands and Germany conduct experiments to allow vehicles on the road who are longer (+25m) and can carry a heavier load. More freight could be transported with one truck.
Such a vehicle consist of a classic truck with a semi−trailer and a trailer)
Trend 6: What effect do new Euro emission norms have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(The European Union proposed new standards for Euro emission norms to achieve the air quality objective for Europe in the year 2020)
Trend 7: What effect does new European safety policy have on new truck registration in ten years time?
(For example: light strips on vehicles, safety mirrors, noise reduction, operating time of truck drivers, better law enforcement: cargo weight, speed, driving time & rest
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Bijlage 4: Interviews experts truckmarkt
In deze bijlage wordt uitleg gegeven bij welke organisatie interviews zijn afgenomen om meer inzicht te krijgen in de truckmarkt. Deze interviews zijn een belangrijke bron geweest bij het opstellen van de zestien trends van hoofdstuk 4. Deze trends worden gebruikt in de dealerenquête. Onderstaande figuur geeft de bezochte organisaties weer. Verder wordt aangegeven welke trends aanbod zijn gekomen in welke interviews.
Organisatie Beschrijving organisatie
Geïnterviewden Datum interview DAF
verkooporganisatie
Sales afdeling België A de Ridder 19 oktober 2006, Temse RAI vereniging Nederlandse
branche vereniging voor fabrikanten en importeurs van wegvervoermiddelen
J. Van de Braak 22 december 2006, Amsterdam Truck dealer associatie (TDA) Nederlandse branche vereniging voor truck dealers
B. Galema 15 januari 2007, Bunnik SAV Beroepsorganisatie van de Vlaamse vrachtvervoerders en logistieke dienstverleners L. Verkinderen 18 januari 2007, Brussel
ACEA Europese automobiel
constructeurs organisatie F. Martinez, S. Larson, J. Smolinska 19 februari 2007, Brussel IRU Internationale wegtransport organisatie M. Billiet 16 februari2007, Brussel Instituut voor wegtransport (IWT) Overheidsinstantie voor wegtransport in vlaanderen
H. Van Ameele 26 februari 2007, Brussel
Figuur 4.1: Beschrijving interview organisaties
DAF RAI TDA SAV ACEA IRU IWT
10 Trend 5 x x x x Trend 6 x x Overheidsmaatregelen Trend 1 x x x x x Trend 2 x x x x x Trend 3 x x x x x Trend 4 x x x Trend 5 x x x x x x x Trend 6 x x x x x Trend 7 x x x x x x
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Bijlage 5: Bestaande gegevens segmenten
De onderstaande gegevens zijn afkomstig van ACEA en Eurostat. ACEA is de
Europese truckconstructeur organisatie (www.acea.be). Zij verzameld gegevens van de nationale organisaties en verwerkt deze tot Europese gegevens. Eurostat is de statistische organisatie van de Europese Unie.
300000 310000 320000 330000 340000 350000 360000 370000 380000 390000 400000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Eu15 EU23
Figuur 5.1: Aantal nieuwe truckregistraties (ACEA, 2007) EU23 is de EU25 zonder Cyprus en Malta
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Figuur 5.3: Vrachtvervoer in miljoen ton kilometer per asconfiguratie truck in de EU 15 (Eurostat, 2007)
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Figuur 5.5: Vrachtvervoer in miljoen ton kilometer per trekker in EU15 naar asconfiguratie in de EU 15 (Eurostat, 2007)
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Bijlage 7: Bestaande gegevens trends
Figuur 7.1: Nieuwe truckregistraties in relatie tot vrachtvervoer en BNP
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Figuur 7.3: Nieuwe truckregistraties 2006 (ACEA, 2007)
Jaarlijkse BNP Voorspelling 1990 2000 2010 2020
EU-15 6982 8572 10391 12836
Nieuwe lidstaten 313 375 555 821
EU-25 7295 8947 10947 13656
Gemiddeld jaarlijks groeipercentage 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020
EU-15 2,07 1,94 2,13
Nieuwe lidstaten 1,82 4,01 3,98
EU-25 2,06 2,04 2,24
Figuur 7.4: BNP groei voorspelling Europese Unie (Mantzos, 2006) Toelichting:
EU15: België,, Denemarken, Duitsland, Finland, Frankrijk, Griekenland, Groot-Brittannië, Ierland, Italië, Luxemburg, Nederland, Oostenrijk, Portugal, Spanje en Zweden.
17 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 450000 452000 454000 456000 458000 460000 462000 464000 466000 468000 470000 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 Absoluut Percentage
Figuur 7.5: Inwoneraantal Europese Unie (Mantzos, 2006)
18 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 2005 2020 EU25
Figuur 7.7: Ontwikkeling vrachtvervoer (Eurostat, 2007) 100 index vrachtvervoer in de EU25
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Jaar Modus Marktaandeel
Weg Spoor Binnenvaart Totaal Weg Spoor Binnenvaart
2005 1 724 392 129 2 244 0,77 0,17 0,06 2004 1 683 392 129 2 203 0,76 0,18 0,06 2003 1 573 364 119 2 055 0,77 0,18 0,06 2002 1 560 358 128 2 046 0,76 0,17 0,06 2001 1 518 359 129 2 006 0,76 0,18 0,06 2000 1 487 374 130 1 991 0,75 0,19 0,07 1999 1 439 358 124 1 921 0,75 0,19 0,06 1998 1 382 370 125 1 876 0,74 0,20 0,07 1997 1 314 380 121 1 815 0,72 0,21 0,07 1996 1 268 360 114 1 741 0,73 0,21 0,07 1995 1 250 358 117 1 725 0,72 0,21 0,07
Figuur 7.9: Marktaandeel transportmodus in cijfers (Mantzos, 2006)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 EU 15 861,5 864,3 886,4 915,0 951,0 978,9 990,7 1014,2 1013,3 1063,5 1094,4 EU 10 86,5 88,3 90,7 95,7 100,9 104,1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 EU 15 265,7 273,0 286,0 307,5 321,8 338,4 352,0 359,5 360,5 395,9 383,6 EU 10 82,9 87,5 95,9 103,0 122,4 141,9
Figuur 7.10: Internationaal transport (European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, 2006)
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Figuur 7.12: Goederentransport verdeeld in route afstanden (European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, 2006)
Figuur 7.13: Huidige situatie Blue banana (Gorzelak, 1996)
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Figuur 7.15: loonontwikkeling index per kwartaal (CBS, 2007)
Nieuwe lidstaten: Estland, Letland, Litouwen, Hongarije, Tsjechië, Roemenië, Albanië, Slowakije, Slovenië en Malta. Geen statistische gegevens beschikbaar van Polen en Cyprus.
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 EU10 EU15 EU25
Figuur 7.16: Aantal transporteurs Europese Unie (Eurostat, 2007)
22 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 EU25
Figuur 7.17: Aantal transporteurs met een wagenpark van 50 en meer (Eurostat, 2007) EU25 data beschikbaar van Frankrijk, Litouwen, Polen, Tsjechië en Zweden.
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 Bulkgoederen Hoogwaardige goederen
Figuur 7.18: Vervoerd tonnage type goederen (Eurostat, 2007)
Gegevens van België, Denemarken, Duitsland, Finland, Frankrijk, Ierland, Nederland, Oostenrijk, Portugal, Spanje Tsjechië en Zweden. Bulkgoederen zij NSTR24 categorie 0 tot en met 19. Hoogwaardige producten zijn NSTR24 categorie 20 tot en met 24.
Euronorm Maximum van 3 assen 4 assen of meer
EURO 0 960 1550
EURO 1 850 1400
EURO 2 750 1250
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Euronorm Maximum van 3 assen 4 assen en meer
EURO 0 1332 2233
EURO 1 1158 1933
EURO 2 1008 1681
EURO 3 876 1461
EURO 4 en minder emissie uitstoot
797 1329
Figuur 7.20: Toekomstig Eurovignet tarief, zal binnen een jaar worden ingevoerd. Maximum jaarlijks tarief (Directoraat-generaal Energie en vervoer, 2007)
Land Belasting Gebaseerd op
emissienormen
Toekomstige ontwikkeling
Nederland Eurovignet Ja (Norm 0, 1 en
2>)
Onderzoek naar kilometer gebaseerd tolsysteem
Belgie Eurovignet Ja (Norm 0, 1 en
2>)
België onderzoekt het Duitse MAUT systeem
Oostenrijk Tol system Nee Hoger tarief voor
bergachtige wegen
Zwitserland Tol system (LSVA) Ja Speciale tarieven
voor Euro 4 en 5 verwacht Onderzoekt mogelijkheid afgelegde afstand
Italie Tol syteem
(Telepass)
Nee Onderzoek
mogelijkheid afgelegde afstand
Hongarije Eurovignet Ja (Norm 0, 1 en
2>)
Nieuw weg belasting system gepland in 2010
Luxemburg Eurovignet Ja (Norm 0, 1 en
2>)
Zweden Eurovignet Ja (Norm 0, 1 en
2>)
Verlaagd tarief voor Euro 4 in Zweden
Denemarken Eurovignet Ja (Norm 0, 1 en
2>)
Frankrijk Tol system
(Telepeage)
Nee Tolwegen zijn
geprivatiseerd. Prijzen en condities niet eenduidig. Groot Brittanie Lokale belasting
(bruggen, Londen centrum)
Nee Een elektronische
wegvrachtvervoer belasting wordt gepland
Tjechie Vignet Nee Introductie tol
systeem gepland gelijkend op het Oostenrijkse systeem
Duitsland Tol system (MAUT) Ja Tol systeem wordt
24
Polen Tol system
(vergelijkbaar met Frankrijk)
Nee
Figuur 7.21: Europese tolsystemen
Juridische en organisatorische maatregelen Maximum gewicht limiet Tijdzones
Infrastructuur Stedelijk vracht centra
Ondergrondse oplossingen Parkeerplaatsen
Prijs Wegenbelasting
Op kilometer afstand gebaseerd tolsysteem Door berekening van congestive kosten
Voertuig technologie Verbeterde efficiency voertuigen
Hybride voertuigen
Informatie technologie GPS
Traceer systemen Route planner software
Figuur 7.22: Maatregelen tegen stedelijk transport vervuiling (Commission of the European Communities, 2006)
25 Vrachtwagens Vrachtwagens en
trailer combinatie
Trekkers en Semi-trailer combinatie
2 assen 3 assen 4 assen 5 assen
en meer 5 assen en meer EU 18 25/26 36/38 40 40/44 België 19 26 39 44 44 Tsjechië 18 25/26 36 42 42 Denemarken 18/19 24/26 38 44/40 40/48 Duitsland 18 26 36 40 40 Estland 18 26 36 40 40 Griekenland 18 26 36 40 40 Spanje 18 26 36 40 40 Frankrijk 19 26 38 40 40 Ierland 17 26 35 40 40 Italië 18 26 40 44 44 Cyprus Letland 18 25 36 40 40 Litouwen 18 26 36 40 40 Luxemburg 19 26 44 44 Hongarije 20 24 36 40 40 Malta 40 40 40 Nederland 21.5 33 40 50 50 Oostenrijk 18 25 36 38 38 Polen 19.5 29.5 37 40 40 Portugal 19 26 38 40 40 Slovenië 18 25 40 40 Slowakije 18 26 40 40 40 Finland 18 26 38 60 48 Zweden 18 26 60 60 Groot-Brittannië 18 26 36 40 40
26 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
CO2 VOS (HC) NOx Fijnstof
Euro 0 (1990) Euro 1 (1993) Euro 2 (1996) Euro 3 (2000) Euro 4 (2005) Euro 5 (2008) Euro 6 (2012?)
Figuur 7.25: Euronorm nieuwe typen (IRU, 2006) 100 index
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Figuur 7.27: Dodelijke slachtoffers onderverdeeld in veroorzaker ongeval (European Commission, 2006)
Oorzaak ongeval Maatregel truck constructeur
Snelheid Cruise control
Snelheidscontrole systemen gebaseerd op de gebruikte infrastructuur Beperkt zicht chauffeur Ultrasone bescherm systeem voor botsingszones met kwetsbare
weggebruikers zoals fietsers en wandelaars
Waarschuwing voor lokale gevaren doormiddel van voertuig tot voertuig communicatie
Gebruik van dodehoekspiegels Ongepaste manoeuvre Baanvak bewakingssysteem
Draai en baanvak verander assistentie Tractie en stabiliteit controle systeem Active rol stabilisatie
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Bijlage 8: Resultaten dealerenquête
In deze bijlage staan alle verkregen resultaten van de enquête. Data over de respondenten, algemene forecast data en de effecten van de onderscheiden trends op de truckmarkt gegroepeerd naar economie, vrachtvervoer en overheidsmaatregelen.
A: Respondent 1 What’s your job title?
2 How many years do you have experience in the truck business?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent 1-5 7 17,5 17,5 17,5 5-10 11 27,5 27,5 45,0 larger10 22 55,0 55,0 100,0 Valid Total 40 100,0 100,0
3 At which country is your company based?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Oostenrijk 1 2,5 2,5 2,5 België 5 12,5 12,5 15,0 Bulgarije 1 2,5 2,5 17,5 Cyprus 1 2,5 2,5 20,0 Tsjechië 1 2,5 2,5 22,5 Estland 1 2,5 2,5 25,0 Finland 1 2,5 2,5 27,5 Frankrijk 1 2,5 2,5 30,0 Duitsland 3 7,5 7,5 37,5 Groot Brittannië 4 10,0 10,0 47,5 Hongarije 1 2,5 2,5 50,0 Ierland 1 2,5 2,5 52,5 Italië 1 2,5 2,5 55,0 Letland 1 2,5 2,5 57,5 Litouwen 1 2,5 2,5 60,0 Valid Nederland 1 2,5 2,5 62,5 5 12,5 12,5 12,5 16 40,0 40,0 52,5 10 25,0 25,0 77,5 6 15,0 15,0 92,5 3 7,5 7,5 100,0 40 100,0 100,0 Dealer principal/director Sales Manager Parts Manager Manager finance Other Total Valid
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
29 Polen 1 2,5 2,5 65,0 Portugal 4 10,0 10,0 75,0 Slowakije 1 2,5 2,5 77,5 Slovenië 1 2,5 2,5 80,0 Spanje 1 2,5 2,5 82,5 Zweden 2 5,0 5,0 87,5 Roemenie 1 2,5 2,5 90,0 Missing value 4 10,0 10,0 100,0 Total 40 100,0 100,0
4 To which category does your company belong to?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent service dealer 2 5,0 5,0 5,0
truck sales dealer 12 30,0 30,0 35,0
service support 14 35,0 35,0 70,0
service and sales dealer 9 22,5 22,5 92,5
others 3 7,5 7,5 100,0
Valid
Total 40 100,0 100,0
B Forecasting
1 How will the European truck market develop in ten years time? Forecasting (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing Value Total of new truck
registrations 5 27.5 27.5 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5 Rigid 5 27,5 27.5 15 15 10 0 Tractor 7.5 32.5 27.5 10 15.0 7.5 0 2 axle 7.5 32.5 25.0 12.5 15.0 7.5 0 3 axle 7.5 27.5 30 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 5 27.5 25 17.5 15 10 0
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
5 27.5 25 15 17.5 7.5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
5 27.5 25 10 15 12.5 2.5
C Economy
1 What effect does the predicted annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2,24% till 2020 have on new truck registrations in ten years?
Economy (n=12) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 2.5 25 37.5 22.5 5 5 2.5 Rigid 0 25 40 22,5 5 7.5 0 Tractor 5 22.5 40 22.5 5 5 0 2 axle 0 25 37.5 27.5 5 5 0 3 axle 0 22.5 40 25 7.5 5 0
4 axle and more 0 22.5 40 25 2.5 2.5 2.5
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
30
Heavy Trucks over 16t
2.5 22.5 37.5 22.5 2.5 10 2.5
2 What effect does the expansion of the European Union have on new truck registration in ten years time? Expansion (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 5 2.5 20 35 37.5 0 0 Rigid 0 7.5 20 37.5 35 0 0 Tractor 0 2.5 27.5 35 35 0 0 2 axle 0 5 20 40 35 0 0 3 axle 2.5 2.5 20 35 40 0 0
4 axle and more 0 2.5 20 35 35 2.5 5
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
0 2.5 20 35 35 5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
0 5 20 32.5 35 7,5 7.5
3 What effect does the economic rise of the new member states have on new truck registration in ten years time? Economic rise (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing system Missing value Total of new truck registrations 10 7.5 20 27.5 32.5 0 2.5 0 Rigid 5 12.5 20 30 30 0 2.5 0 Tractor 5 7.5 27.5 27.5 30 0 2.5 0 2 axle 5 10 20 32.5 30 0 2.5 0 3 axle 7.5 7.5 20 27.5 35 0 2.5 0 4 axle and more 5 7.5 20 27.5 30 2.5 2.5 0 Trucks over 3,5t under 16t 5 7.5 20 27.5 30 5 2.5 2.5 Heavy Trucks over 16t 5 7.5 20 27.5 30 0 2.5 7.5 D: Freight transport
1 What effect does the predicted annual growth off 2% of the total freight market have on new truck registration in ten years time?
Growth freight market (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 10 25 25 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5 Rigid 10 25 25 15 15 10 0 Tractor 12.5 30 25 10 15 7.5 0 2 axle 12.5 30 22.5 12.5 15 7.5 0 3 axle 12.5 25 27.5 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 7.5 25 25 17.5 15 10 0
31
under 16t
Heavy Trucks over 16t
10 25 22.5 10 15 12.5 5
2 What effect does the increase of market share of road freight transport in comparison to other transport modes have on new truck registration in ten years time?
Markets hare freigt transport (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 7.5 25 27.5 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5 Rigid 7.5 25 27.5 15 15 10 0 Tractor 10 30 27.5 10 15 7.5 0 2 axle 10 30 25 12.5 15 7.5 0 3 axle 10 25 30 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 7.5 25 25 17.5 15 10 0
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
7.5 25 25 15 17.5 7.5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
7.5 25 25 10 15 12.5 5
3 What effect does the increase of the length of transport have on new truck registration in ten years time? Length of transport (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 5 27.5 27.5 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5 Rigid 5 27.5 27.5 15 15 10 0 Tractor 7.5 32.5 27.5 10 15 7.5 0 2 axle 7.5 32.5 25 12.5 15 7.5 0 3 axle 7.5 27.5 30 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 5 27.5 25 17.5 15 10 0
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
5 27.5 25 15 17.5 7.5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
5 27.5 25 10 15 12.5 5
4 What effect does the change of the Location of the main European traffic routes have on new truck registration in ten years time?
Change of location (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 2.5 25 37.5 22.5 5 5 2.5 Rigid 0 25 40 22.5 5 7.5 0 Tractor 5 22.5 40 22.5 5 5 0 2 axle 0 25 37.5 27.5 5 5 0 3 axle 0 22.5 40 25 7.5 5 0
4 axle and more 0 22.5 40 25 2.5 7.5 2.5
32
under 16t
Heavy Trucks over 16t
2.5 22.5 37.5 22.5 2.5 10 2.5
5 What effect does the increase in competition of the road freight market have on new truck registrations in ten years time?
Increase competition (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 5 2.5 20 35 37.5 0 0 Rigid 0 7.5 20 37.5 35 0 0 Tractor 0 2.5 27.5 35 35 0 0 2 axle 0 5 20 40 35 0 0 3 axle 2.5 2.5 20 35 40 0 0
4 axle and more 0 2.5 20 35 35 2.5 5
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
0 2.5 20 35 35 5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
0 5 20 32.5 35 0 7.5
6 What effect has the decrease in percentage of transported bulk goods have on new truck registration in ten years time?
Decrease transport bulk goods (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing system Missing value Total of new truck registrations 10 7.5 20 27.5 32.5 0 2.5 0 Rigid 5 12.5 20 30 30 0 2.5 0 Tractor 5 7.5 27.5 27.5 30 0 2.5 0 2 axle 7.5 7.5 20 27.5 35 0 2.5 0 3 axle 7.5 7.5 20 27.5 35 0 0 0 4 axle and more 5 7.5 20 27.5 30 2.5 2.5 5 Trucks over 3,5t under 16t 5 7.5 20 27.5 30 5 2.5 2.5 Heavy Trucks over 16t 5 7.5 20 27.5 30 0 2.5 7.5 E: Government
1 What effect does new infrastructure tax policy have on new truck registration in ten years time? New infrastructure tax policy (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations
10 25 25 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5
Rigid 10 25 25 15 15 10 0
33
2 axle 12.5 30 22.5 12.5 15 7.5 0
3 axle 12.5 25 27.5 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 7.5 25 25 17.5 15 10 0
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
10 25 22.5 15 17.5 7.5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
10 25 22.5 10 15 12.5 5
2 What effect does new environmental zone policy for inner cities have on new truck registration in ten years time? New environmental zone policy (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 7.5 25 27.5 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5 Rigid 7.5 25 27.5 15 15 10 0 Tractor 10 30 27.5 10 15 7.5 0 2 axle 10 30 25 12.5 15 7.5 0 3 axle 10 25 30 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 7.5 25 25 17.5 15 10 0
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
7.5 25 25 15 17.5 7.5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t 7.5 25 25 10 15 12.5 5
3 What effect does an price increase of fuel have on new truck registration in ten years time? Price increase fuel
(n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 5 27.5 27.5 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5 Rigid 5 27.5 27.5 15 15 10 0 Tractor 7.5 32.5 27.5 10 15 7.5 0 2 axle 7.5 32.5 25 12.5 15 7.5 0 3 axle 7.5 27.5 30 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 5 27.5 25 17.5 15 10 0
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
5 27.5 25 15 17.5 7.5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
5 27.5 25 10 15 12.5 5
34 3 axle 0 22.5 40 25 7.5 5 0 4 axle and more 0 22.5 40 25 2.5 7.5 2.5 Trucks over 3,5t under 16t 0 25 37.5 22.5 5 5 5 Heavy Trucks over 16t 2.5 22.5 37.5 22.5 2.5 10 2.5
5 What effect does an approval of long and heavy vehicles on European roads have on new truck registration in ten years time?
Approval of long and heavy (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck registrations 5 2.5 20 35 37.5 0 0 Rigid 0 7.5 20 37.5 35 0 0 Tractor 0 2.5 27.5 35 35 0 0 2 axle 0 5 20 40 35 0 0 3 axle 2.5 2.5 20 35 40 0 0 4 axle and more 0 2.5 20 35 35 2.5 5 Trucks over 3,5t under 16t 0 2.5 20 35 35 5 2.5 Heavy Trucks over 16t 0 5 20 32.5 35 0 7.5
35
Trucks over 16t
7 What effect does new European safety policy have on new truck registration in ten years time? EU safety policy (n=40) Percent (%) Strong decrease Decrease No effect Increase Strong increase No opnion Missing value Total of new truck
registrations 10 25 25 12.5 17.5 7.5 2.5 Rigid 10 25 25 15 15 10 0 Tractor 12.5 30 25 10 15 7.5 0 2 axle 12.5 30 22.5 12.5 15 7.5 0 3 axle 12.5 25 27.5 10 15 7.5 2.5
4 axle and more 7.5 25 25 17.5 15 10 0
Trucks over 3,5t under 16t
10 25 22.5 15 27.5 7.5 2.5
Heavy Trucks over 16t
36
Bijlage 9: Factoranalyse
Een geroteerde componentmatrix laat nog sterker zien welke trends met welke componenten samenhangen. Dit wordt weergeven met vetgedrukte getallen.
Rotated Component Matrix(a)
Component 1 2 3 Truck market development ,982 ,009 ,124 GDP ,138 -,049 ,989 Expansion EU -,043 ,928 -,025
economic rise new
members ,051 ,927 -,039
growth freight market ,989 ,011 ,071
market share freight
transport ,984 -,016 ,079 length transport ,982 ,009 ,124 change of location ,138 -,049 ,989 increase competition -,043 ,928 -,025 decrease transport bulk goods ,051 ,927 -,039
new infrastructure tax
policy ,989 ,011 ,071
new environmental
zone policy ,984 -,016 ,079
price increase fuel ,982 ,009 ,124
cleaner vehicles ,138 -,049 ,989
approval of long and
heavy -,043 ,928 -,025
EU emissions norm ,051 ,927 -,039
EU safety policy ,989 ,011 ,071
