Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook October 10 - 16, 2019
Flash flooding reported over Dakar and Kaolack in Senegal
Dry conditions persisting in the southern part of Mauritania
1) An abnormal dryness has been issued for the past couple of weeks over the southern part of Mauritania. The ITF has moved further south which could prevent quick recovery before the end of season in the southern part of Mauritania.
2) Flash flood has been reported in the central Senegal last week. The coming week predicts above normal rain which could maintain the flood in the area.
3) The central Nigeria has been over flooding warning for the past couple of weeks and remains under risk of flood for the coming week.
4) The flood has been very active this year over the western-central-eastern Sudan and will remain under a flash flooding warning for the coming week.
5) Flash flood and heavy rains have been reported in southeastern Oromia and Somali in Ethiopia; Gedo region in Somalia. Eastern Ethiopia and northern-southern Somalia have shown more than 200 percent of normal rainfall this past 30 days in ARC2. The coming week predicts moderate to heavy rainfall which could increase the risk of riverine flooding over areas along Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia.
6) Flash floods have been reported over Yopougon and Aboisso Department in Cote d’Ivoire. In spite of the fact that light rain has been predicted in the far-southern part of the country for the coming week, a flooding polygon would be issued due to the actual saturated ground condition.
Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
The northern part of Angola is starting receiving rainfall.
Some flash floods and landslides have been reported in Senegal, central Sudan, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya and Somalia.
West Africa countries registered between 25 to 300mm last week.
Light to moderate has been registered between 12N-17N latitude which correspond the actual position of the ITF (Figure 1).
Moderate to heavy rainfall has been registered between 10S-12N latitude. Southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Tanzania and northern Zambia have recorded light to moderate rainfall this past week which confirms the ITF movement southward.
The major period of the rainy season performance has been relatively positive in the west over Guinea, Sierra Leon, Liberia, and Cote d’Ivoire; in the western and central over Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia (Figure 2). In contrast, large deficit has been observed central and eastern Nigeria, Cameroon, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and western Mauritania.
This coming week, GEFS week1 ensemble predicts moderate to heavy rain over the Gulf of Guinea countries expending to Democratic Republic of Congo. The abnormal dryness in the southern Mauritania remains active due to the fact that GEFS week1 ensemble predicts a climatological rainfall for the coming week. A flooding polygon has been being placed over the central Senegal due to the previous week flooding and the above normal rain expected for the coming week. The central Nigeria also would be under a flooding polygon due to the actual ground water saturation and the heavy rain predicted for the coming week.
Ethiopia registered a significant amount of rain last week.
Ethiopia has registered between 25-200mm of rain during Kiremt season; the heaviest part is located longitudinally between 8-12N sometimes exceeding 300mm (Figure 2). Far southern Yemen and northern Somalia has registered heavy rainfall sometimes over 300mm in local area also. In contrast, the eastern part of Democratic Republic of Congo has observed a deficit of rain between 50 to 100mm of precipitation. This starting Bega season would acknowledge the weak deficit of rainfall over the northeastern part of Ethiopia during the previous season even though recently the anomalies have begun to be weakly positive.
This coming week, the GEFS week1 ensemble mean predicts moderate to heavy rain over Ethiopia except a small portion in the northeastern part of the country observing light rainfall. Yemen and northern Somalia would receive moderate to heavy rainfall this coming week. Kenya and Uganda would remain near climatological rainfall, while moderate to heavy rainfall are expected over Democratic Republic of Congo extended to northern Angola, Congo and Gabon including most part of Tanzania. The southern Africa would remain near climatology rainfall for the coming week.
7-Day Satellite-Total Rainfall (mm) Valid: September 30 – October 06, 2019
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
3 Month Total Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Valid: August 01 – October 06, 2019
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
