APPENDIX 1 1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test on the variables Dickey-Fuller critical values of H

APPENDIX 1

1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test on the variables

Dickey-Fuller critical values of H

rejection

Level of Significance

Critical Value

1% -3,6019

5% -2,9358

10% -2,6059

Table 1

Variables of the consumption function

Time Series

R

DW ADF

Conclusion

Variables of the exports function

Time Series

R

DW ADF

Conclusion

expo

0,5557 1,4407 6,8953

non-stationary

ln(expo)

0,0029 1,2866 -0,3353

non-stationary

dln(expo)

0,3189 1,8597 -4,1627

stationary

at

1%

s&

0,2131 2,043 -3,1223

stationary

at

1%

d(

s&

)

0,6183 2,0211 -7,5309

stationary

at

1%

yg

0,0144 1,3773 -0,7471

non-stationary

ln(yg)

0,05752 1,2408 -1,5228

non-stationary

dln(yg)

0,2950 1,7726 -3,9356

stationary

at

1%

Table 4

Variables of the imports function

Time Series

R

DW ADF

Conclusion

gov

0,8194 1,5093 13,1338

non-stationary

ln(gov)

0,0117 2,1372 0,6720

non-stationary

dln(gov)

0,5270 1,9746 -6,4211

stationary

at

1%

t

0,7786 1,9829 11,5615

non-stationary

ln(t)

0,0201 2,8223 0,8846

non-stationary

dln(t)

0,6876 1,8406 -9,0247

stationary

at

1%

ctpn

0,7875 0,4891 11,8686

non-stationary

ln(ctpn)

0,0017 0,3556 -0,2600

non-stationary

dln(ctpn)

0,0599 1,9879 -1,5357

non-stationary

Table 6

2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests on Residuals of Regressions

Residuals of the consumption function

ADF Test Statistic -2.670967 1% Critical Value* -3.6067 5% Critical Value -2.9378 10% Critical Value -2.6069 *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDCONS) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/07/06 Time: 20:15 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RESIDCONS(-1) -0.324791 0.121600 -2.670967 0.0112

C -0.000446 0.002090 -0.213261 0.8323

Residuals of the investments function

ADF Test Statistic -5.350237 1% Critical Value* -3.6067 5% Critical Value -2.9378 10% Critical Value -2.6069 *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDINV) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/07/06 Time: 20:16 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RESIDINV(-1) -0.870705 0.162741 -5.350237 0.0000

C 0.000915 0.015404 0.059433 0.9529

R-squared 0.436191 Mean dependent var 0.001092 Adjusted R-squared 0.420953 S.D. dependent var 0.126416 S.E. of regression 0.096197 Akaike info criterion -1.794926 Sum squared resid 0.342390 Schwarz criterion -1.709616 Log likelihood 37.00107 F-statistic 28.62504 Durbin-Watson stat 1.955397 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000005

Table 8

Residuals of the exports function

ADF Test Statistic -5.340023 1% Critical Value* -3.6117 5% Critical Value -2.9399 10% Critical Value -2.6080 *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDEXPO) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/07/06 Time: 20:18 Sample(adjusted): 1963 2000

Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RESIDEXPO(-1) -0.846907 0.158596 -5.340023 0.0000

C 0.004208 0.015423 0.272831 0.7865

R-squared 0.441998 Mean dependent var 0.004462 Adjusted R-squared 0.426497 S.D. dependent var 0.125546 S.E. of regression 0.095076 Akaike info criterion -1.817083 Sum squared resid 0.325420 Schwarz criterion -1.730895 Log likelihood 36.52459 F-statistic 28.51584 Durbin-Watson stat 1.776333 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000005

10% Critical Value -2.6080 *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDIMPO) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/07/06 Time: 20:20 Sample(adjusted): 1963 2000

Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RESIDIMPO(-1) -0.431110 0.136595 -3.156112 0.0032

C 0.001014 0.010878 0.093207 0.9263

R-squared 0.216728 Mean dependent var 0.000189 Adjusted R-squared 0.194970 S.D. dependent var 0.074718 S.E. of regression 0.067040 Akaike info criterion -2.515864 Sum squared resid 0.161796 Schwarz criterion -2.429675 Log likelihood 49.80141 F-statistic 9.961045 Durbin-Watson stat 1.744316 Prob(F-statistic) 0.003226

Table 10

Residuals of the government expenditure function

5% Critical Value -2.9378 10% Critical Value -2.6069 *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDGOV) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/07/06 Time: 20:22 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RESIDGOV(-1) -0.995397 0.164825 -6.039122 0.0000

C -0.003028 0.018238 -0.166030 0.8690

R-squared 0.496400 Mean dependent var 0.000251 Adjusted R-squared 0.482789 S.D. dependent var 0.158302 S.E. of regression 0.113847 Akaike info criterion -1.458006 Sum squared resid 0.479560 Schwarz criterion -1.372695 Log likelihood 30.43112 F-statistic 36.47099 Durbin-Watson stat 1.992225 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001

3. Test regression on the consumption function

Ordinary regression

Dependent Variable: LOG(CONS) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/08/06 Time: 18:21 Sample(adjusted): 1961 2000

Included observations: 40 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 0.934512 0.395881 2.360586 0.0239

LOG(CONS1) 0.572076 0.047295 12.09603 0.0000 LOG(YD) 0.514033 0.074690 6.882182 0.0000

RP1 -1.182835 0.374471 -3.158681 0.0033 LOG(MD) -0.060578 0.027895 -2.171620 0.0367 R-squared 0.999922 Mean dependent var 7.365615

Adjusted R-squared 0.999913 S.D. dependent var 1.957182 S.E. of regression 0.018242 Akaike info criterion -5.053659 Sum squared resid 0.011648 Schwarz criterion -4.842549 Log likelihood 106.0732 F-statistic 112218.8 Durbin-Watson stat 0.646190 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Table 12

Corellogram for the ordinary regression

Sample: 1961 2000 Included observations: 40

Date: 07/08/06 Time: 18:47 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 0.869036 0.297819 2.917997 0.0063 LOG(CONS1) 0.548901 0.035798 15.33322 0.0000 LOG(YD) 0.549477 0.057642 9.532513 0.0000 RP1 -1.155093 0.283297 -4.077321 0.0003 LOG(MD) -0.070152 0.022662 -3.095638 0.0040 RESIDCONS1 0.688333 0.129302 5.323443 0.0000 R-squared 0.999956 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999950 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013703 Akaike info criterion -5.601705 Sum squared resid 0.006197 Schwarz criterion -5.345772 Log likelihood 115.2332 F-statistic 150532.2 Durbin-Watson stat 1.784372 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Table 14

Corellogram for the corrected regression

Sample: 1962 2000 Included observations: 39

Residuals of the corrected consumption function

ADF Test Statistic -5.758024 1% Critical Value* -3.6117 5% Critical Value -2.9399 10% Critical Value -2.6080 *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDCONSNEW) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/08/06 Time: 19:00 Sample(adjusted): 1963 2000

Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RESIDCONSNEW(-1) -0.928056 0.161176 -5.758024 0.0000

C -0.000514 0.002051 -0.250770 0.8034

R-squared 0.479429 Mean dependent var -0.000354 Adjusted R-squared 0.464969 S.D. dependent var 0.017284 S.E. of regression 0.012642 Akaike info criterion -5.852351 Sum squared resid 0.005754 Schwarz criterion -5.766162 Log likelihood 113.1947 F-statistic 33.15484 Durbin-Watson stat 1.994876 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001

Table 16

Corrected regression with Dummy

Method: Least Squares Date: 07/08/06 Time: 19:03 Sample(adjusted): 1962 1999

Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 0.676416 0.309669 2.184317 0.0366 LOG(CONS1) 0.545691 0.035673 15.29718 0.0000 LOG(YD) 0.518801 0.059151 8.770733 0.0000 RP1 -0.873645 0.316211 -2.762859 0.0096 LOG(MD) -0.045430 0.025881 -1.755375 0.0891 RESIDCONS1 0.553793 0.157261 3.521492 0.0014 DICT -0.015362 0.008710 -1.763710 0.0876 R-squared 0.999958 Mean dependent var 7.362557

Adjusted R-squared 0.999950 S.D. dependent var 1.896175 S.E. of regression 0.013414 Akaike info criterion -5.620203 Sum squared resid 0.005578 Schwarz criterion -5.318543 Log likelihood 113.7839 F-statistic 123216.3 Durbin-Watson stat 1.841168 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Included observations: 38

Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob . | . | . | . | 1 0.052 0.052 0.1115 0.738 .**| . | .**| . | 2 -0.297 -0.301 3.8381 0.147 .**| . | . *| . | 3 -0.196 -0.177 5.5111 0.138 . |*. | . |*. | 4 0.139 0.074 6.3691 0.173 . *| . | .**| . | 5 -0.098 -0.242 6.8134 0.235 . |*. | . |** | 6 0.133 0.206 7.6598 0.264 . *| . | .**| . | 7 -0.158 -0.297 8.8913 0.261 . | . | . |*. | 8 0.021 0.125 8.9144 0.350 . |*. | . |*. | 9 0.120 0.099 9.6646 0.378 . |*. | . *| . | 10 0.074 -0.109 9.9651 0.444 .**| . | . *| . | 11 -0.279 -0.070 14.358 0.214 . *| . | . *| . | 12 -0.086 -0.180 14.790 0.253 . |*. | . |*. | 13 0.121 0.138 15.682 0.267 . |*. | . *| . | 14 0.111 -0.102 16.459 0.286 . *| . | . *| . | 15 -0.097 -0.064 17.079 0.314 .**| . | .**| . | 16 -0.196 -0.217 19.727 0.233

Table 18

Unit root test on the residuals of the corrected regression with Dummy

5% Critical Value -2.9422 10% Critical Value -2.6092 *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDCONSDUMMY) Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/08/06 Time: 19:08 Sample(adjusted): 1963 1999

Included observations: 37 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RESIDCONSDUMMY

(-1)

-0.946704 0.165923 -5.705674 0.0000

C -0.000432 0.002026 -0.213405 0.8322

R-squared 0.481901 Mean dependent var -0.000634 Adjusted R-squared 0.467099 S.D. dependent var 0.016878 S.E. of regression 0.012321 Akaike info criterion -5.902488 Sum squared resid 0.005313 Schwarz criterion -5.815411 Log likelihood 111.1960 F-statistic 32.55471 Durbin-Watson stat 1.958466 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002

APPENDIX 2

Estimation of the fundamental functions of the Model

1. The Consumption Function

Dependent Variable: LNCONS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/12/06 Time: 14:35 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.869036 0.297819 2.917997 0.0063 C(2) 0.548901 0.035798 15.33322 0.0000 C(3) 0.549477 0.057642 9.532513 0.0000 C(4) -1.155093 0.283297 -4.077321 0.0003 C(5) -0.070152 0.022662 -3.095638 0.0040 C(6) 0.688333 0.129302 5.323443 0.0000

R-squared 0.999956 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999950 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013703 Akaike info criterion -5.601705 Sum squared resid 0.006197 Schwarz criterion -5.345772 Log likelihood 115.2332 Durbin-Watson stat 1.784372

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 LNCONS LNMD

Table 3

2. The Investments Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 13:23 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.935482 1.545726 0.605206 0.5492 C(2) 0.575845 0.198477 2.901321 0.0066 C(3) 0.148980 0.218075 0.683160 0.4993 C(4) -0.723741 1.750376 -0.413477 0.6819 C(5) 0.198051 0.116648 1.697856 0.0989 C(6) 0.289918 0.248673 1.165860 0.2520

R-squared 0.997332 Mean dependent var 6.244436 Adjusted R-squared 0.996928 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.100617 Akaike info criterion -1.614357 Sum squared resid 0.334083 Schwarz criterion -1.358424 Log likelihood 37.47996 Durbin-Watson stat 1.953847

Table 8

3. The Exports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 13:34 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDEXPO1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -1.993976 0.496591 -4.015329 0.0003

C(2) 0.859943 0.031790 27.05067 0.0000

C(3) 0.439913 0.099676 4.413444 0.0001

C(4) 0.004410 0.002109 2.091378 0.0440

C(5) 0.153765 0.174765 0.879840 0.3851

R-squared 0.997985 Mean dependent var 5.987132 Adjusted R-squared 0.997748 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.101679 Akaike info criterion -1.614784 Sum squared resid 0.351513 Schwarz criterion -1.401507 Log likelihood 36.48828 Durbin-Watson stat 1.853027

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 LNEXPO

Table 13

4. The Imports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 13:42 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.234366 0.346967 -6.439700 0.0000 C(2) -0.040480 0.146720 -0.275902 0.7843

C(3) 1.127082 0.159911 7.048180 0.0000

C(4) 0.002492 0.001060 2.349366 0.0248

C(5) 0.980798 0.143039 6.856858 0.0000

R-squared 0.999368 Mean dependent var 6.352694 Adjusted R-squared 0.999294 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.055138 Akaike info criterion -2.838750 Sum squared resid 0.103366 Schwarz criterion -2.625473 Log likelihood 60.35562 Durbin-Watson stat 1.852164

-10 0 10 20 30 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 SEXP

Table 18

5. The Government Expenditure Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 13:53 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5) *LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.525886 0.134076 -3.922300 0.0004 C(2) -0.635197 0.359691 -1.765952 0.0867 C(3) 0.054293 0.419094 0.129548 0.8977 C(4) 0.307620 0.155949 1.972573 0.0570 C(5) 0.630588 0.160995 3.916829 0.0004 C(6) 1.146051 0.416014 2.754842 0.0095

R-squared 0.996588 Mean dependent var 4.270142 Adjusted R-squared 0.996071 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.127334 Akaike info criterion -1.143368 Sum squared resid 0.535060 Schwarz criterion -0.887436 Log likelihood 28.29569 Durbin-Watson stat 2.034036

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 GOV

Table 23

APPENDIX 3

General Presentation of the Results

Consumption Investment Exports Imports

Gov.

Expenditure

King

₊

(5%)

-

(5%)

+

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

Dictatorship

(5%)

-

(N/S)

+

(N/S)

-

(10%)

+

(N/S)

Conservatives

₊

(N/S)

+

(15%)

-

(15%)

+

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

Socialists

₊

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

+

(5%)

+

(10%)

-

(N/S)

EU

₊

(N/S)

-

(5%)

+

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

+

(N/S)

Conservatives:

K. Karamanlis

+

(N/S)

+

(5%)

-

(N/S)

+

(10%)

-

(N/S)

Conservatives:

K. Mitsotakis

-

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

-

(5%)

-

(5%)

+

(N/S)

Socialists:

A. Papandreou

+

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

+

(1%)

+

(1%)

-

(N/S)

Socialists:

Table 1

K. Simitis

-

(N/S)

+

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

-

(N/S)

+

(N/S)

Note: The level of significance of the relevant dummy variable is in brackets. N/S: no

statistical significance. Plus denotes a positive effect and Minus a negative one.

The Consumption Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/06 Time: 12:40 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5)

*DLNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*KING Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 1.143742 0.457434 2.500343 0.0177 C(2) 0.585050 0.029530 19.81231 0.0000 C(3) 0.426635 0.029735 14.34805 0.0000 C(4) -1.235115 0.452459 -2.729780 0.0102 C(5) -0.006801 0.034603 -0.196539 0.8454 C(6) 0.503568 0.161473 3.118592 0.0038 C(7) 0.025863 0.011178 2.313661 0.0273

R-squared 0.999952 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999943 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.014532 Akaike info criterion -5.463759 Sum squared resid 0.006758 Schwarz criterion -5.165171 Log likelihood 113.5433 Durbin-Watson stat 1.596161

The Investments Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:11 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD +C(6)*RESIDINV1+C(7)*KING

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.574792 1.999239 0.287505 0.7756 C(2) -0.201366 0.481916 -0.417844 0.6789 C(3) 0.931419 0.012926 72.05591 0.0000 C(4) -1.548801 1.998060 -0.775153 0.4439 C(5) 0.028789 0.263000 0.109462 0.9135 C(6) 0.884458 0.519884 1.701261 0.0986 C(7) -0.238456 0.066139 -3.605389 0.0010 R-squared 0.997309 Mean dependent var 6.244436

Adjusted R-squared 0.996804 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.102617 Akaike info criterion -1.554482 Sum squared resid 0.336966 Schwarz criterion -1.255894 Log likelihood 37.31240 Durbin-Watson stat 1.918122

Dependent Variable: LNEXPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:14 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*KING

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.021595 0.579685 -3.487403 0.0014 C(2) 0.859028 0.033630 25.54387 0.0000 C(3) 0.444666 0.112528 3.951597 0.0004 C(4) 0.004462 0.002207 2.021893 0.0514 C(5) 0.157469 0.181478 0.867700 0.3918 C(6) 0.006447 0.066856 0.096432 0.9238

R-squared 0.997986 Mean dependent var 5.987132 Adjusted R-squared 0.997681 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.103194 Akaike info criterion -1.563784 Sum squared resid 0.351414 Schwarz criterion -1.307851 Log likelihood 36.49378 Durbin-Watson stat 1.851104

The Imports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:15 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*KING

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.186731 0.366798 -5.961683 0.0000 C(2) -0.025693 0.152083 -0.168942 0.8669 C(3) 1.109592 0.166446 6.666360 0.0000 C(4) 0.002434 0.001081 2.251370 0.0311 C(5) 0.966104 0.148403 6.509995 0.0000 C(6) -0.014813 0.032996 -0.448929 0.6564 R-squared 0.999372 Mean dependent var 6.352694

Adjusted R-squared 0.999277 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.055797 Akaike info criterion -2.793556 Sum squared resid 0.102739 Schwarz criterion -2.537624 Log likelihood 60.47435 Durbin-Watson stat 1.831730

Dependent Variable: LNGOV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 13:59 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5) *LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*KING

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.471205 0.146180 -3.223453 0.0029 C(2) -0.718219 0.370775 -1.937074 0.0616 C(3) -0.076052 0.441754 -0.172159 0.8644 C(4) 0.282433 0.158443 1.782551 0.0842 C(5) 0.650561 0.162622 4.000450 0.0003 C(6) 1.206462 0.421525 2.862134 0.0074 C(7) -0.077256 0.081598 -0.946778 0.3508 R-squared 0.996681 Mean dependent var 4.270142

Adjusted R-squared 0.996059 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.127534 Akaike info criterion -1.119713 Sum squared resid 0.520480 Schwarz criterion -0.821125 Log likelihood 28.83441 Durbin-Watson stat 2.082424

2. Greece under a military dictatorship. Dummy: DICT

The Consumption Function

Dependent Variable: LNCONS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/06 Time: 13:08 Sample (adjusted): 1962 1999

Included observations: 38 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5)

*DLNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*DICT Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.738830 0.446058 1.656353 0.1077 C(2) 0.571677 0.029834 19.16166 0.0000 C(3) 0.433480 0.029401 14.74374 0.0000 C(4) -0.779720 0.435717 -1.789510 0.0833 C(5) -0.018302 0.036642 -0.499488 0.6210 C(6) 0.492717 0.145612 3.383779 0.0020 C(7) -0.022825 0.009493 -2.404318 0.0224 R-squared 0.999954 Mean dependent var 7.362557

Adjusted R-squared 0.999945 S.D. dependent var 1.896175 S.E. of regression 0.014019 Akaike info criterion -5.532040 Sum squared resid 0.006092 Schwarz criterion -5.230379 Log likelihood 112.1088 Durbin-Watson stat 1.809029

Dependent Variable: LNINV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:27 Sample (adjusted): 1962 1999

Included observations: 38 after adjustments

LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*DICT

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.749677 1.795733 0.417477 0.6792 C(2) 0.592654 0.251041 2.360789 0.0247 C(3) 0.091034 0.296633 0.306892 0.7610 C(4) -0.395406 2.178896 -0.181471 0.8572 C(5) 0.228252 0.142195 1.605204 0.1186 C(6) 0.285228 0.273325 1.043547 0.3048 C(7) -0.017071 0.063748 -0.267789 0.7906 R-squared 0.997183 Mean dependent var 6.174618

Adjusted R-squared 0.996638 S.D. dependent var 1.785806 S.E. of regression 0.103546 Akaike info criterion -1.532773 Sum squared resid 0.332377 Schwarz criterion -1.231112 Log likelihood 36.12268 Durbin-Watson stat 1.945999

The Exports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:28 Sample (adjusted): 1962 1999

Included observations: 38 after adjustments

LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*DICT

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.012467 0.540755 -3.721584 0.0008 C(2) 0.859139 0.036776 23.36166 0.0000 C(3) 0.443052 0.110012 4.027292 0.0003 C(4) 0.004525 0.002301 1.966722 0.0579 C(5) 0.150298 0.183263 0.820119 0.4182 C(6) 0.005280 0.051539 0.102452 0.9190

R-squared 0.997877 Mean dependent var 5.908849 Adjusted R-squared 0.997545 S.D. dependent var 2.114325 S.E. of regression 0.104766 Akaike info criterion -1.530230 Sum squared resid 0.351231 Schwarz criterion -1.271664 Log likelihood 35.07438 Durbin-Watson stat 1.857944

Dependent Variable: LNIMPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:12 Sample (adjusted): 1962 1999

Included observations: 38 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*DICT

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.464689 0.540766 -4.557775 0.0001 C(2) -0.159907 0.233272 -0.685496 0.4980 C(3) 1.251791 0.253414 4.939698 0.0000 C(4) 0.002618 0.001028 2.546066 0.0159 C(5) 1.028255 0.185423 5.545465 0.0000 C(6) -0.041708 0.024492 -1.702941 0.0983 R-squared 0.999384 Mean dependent var 6.274511

Adjusted R-squared 0.999287 S.D. dependent var 2.043651 S.E. of regression 0.054560 Akaike info criterion -2.835103 Sum squared resid 0.095256 Schwarz criterion -2.576537 Log likelihood 59.86697 Durbin-Watson stat 1.876010

The Government Expenditure Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:36 Sample (adjusted): 1962 1999

Included observations: 38 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)* LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5)

*LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*DICT Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.670014 0.148715 -4.505367 0.0001 C(2) -0.629641 0.348746 -1.805443 0.0807 C(3) 0.287072 0.423130 0.678450 0.5025 C(4) 0.208484 0.163483 1.275260 0.2117 C(5) 0.734195 0.167508 4.383051 0.0001 C(6) 1.073294 0.405863 2.644475 0.0127 C(7) 0.065458 0.060164 1.087987 0.2850

R-squared 0.996755 Mean dependent var 4.182512 Adjusted R-squared 0.996127 S.D. dependent var 1.982673 S.E. of regression 0.123384 Akaike info criterion -1.182201 Sum squared resid 0.471936 Schwarz criterion -0.880540 Log likelihood 29.46181 Durbin-Watson stat 2.098386

The Conservative Government (1975-1980, 1990-1993. Dummy: CONSERV

The Consumption Function

Dependent Variable: LNCONS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:40 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*CONSERV

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.865871 0.302921 2.858408 0.0074 C(2) 0.550760 0.038054 14.47311 0.0000 C(3) 0.546696 0.060903 8.976447 0.0000 C(4) -1.149167 0.289816 -3.965166 0.0004 C(5) -0.069467 0.023376 -2.971679 0.0056 C(6) 0.683184 0.134932 5.063183 0.0000 C(7) 0.000972 0.005910 0.164514 0.8704

R-squared 0.999956 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999948 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013910 Akaike info criterion -5.551268 Sum squared resid 0.006192 Schwarz criterion -5.252680 Log likelihood 115.2497 Durbin-Watson stat 1.784289

The Investments Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:07 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*CONSERV

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.071985 1.609920 0.044713 0.9646 C(2) 0.593166 0.152442 3.891106 0.0005 C(3) 0.163915 0.169468 0.967236 0.3407 C(4) 0.083053 1.704087 0.048737 0.9614 C(5) 0.170369 0.084479 2.016703 0.0522 C(6) 0.207510 0.214485 0.967477 0.3406 C(7) 0.067157 0.045518 1.475400 0.1499

R-squared 0.997545 Mean dependent var 6.244436 Adjusted R-squared 0.997084 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.098019 Akaike info criterion -1.646167 Sum squared resid 0.307446 Schwarz criterion -1.347579 Log likelihood 39.10025 Durbin-Watson stat 1.878166

Dependent Variable: LNEXPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:04 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5)

*RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*CONSERV Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.539942 0.731673 -3.471420 0.0015 C(2) 0.828139 0.041817 19.80381 0.0000 C(3) 0.551149 0.145388 3.790888 0.0006 C(4) 0.005188 0.002436 2.129549 0.0408 C(5) 0.135934 0.135671 1.001934 0.3237 C(6) -0.069047 0.046259 -1.492620 0.1450 R-squared 0.998106 Mean dependent var 5.987132

Adjusted R-squared 0.997819 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.100079 Akaike info criterion -1.625080 Sum squared resid 0.330520 Schwarz criterion -1.369147 Log likelihood 37.68905 Durbin-Watson stat 1.879652

The Imports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:05 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*CONSERV

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.218012 0.488001 -4.545094 0.0001 C(2) -0.033523 0.209685 -0.159872 0.8740 C(3) 1.119189 0.228365 4.900870 0.0000 C(4) 0.002547 0.001004 2.536585 0.0161 C(5) 0.963406 0.184031 5.235014 0.0000 C(6) 0.007855 0.022209 0.353683 0.7258

R-squared 0.999371 Mean dependent var 6.352694 Adjusted R-squared 0.999275 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.055859 Akaike info criterion -2.791334 Sum squared resid 0.102968 Schwarz criterion -2.535401 Log likelihood 60.43101 Durbin-Watson stat 1.798375

Dependent Variable: LNGOV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:49 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5)

*LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*CONSERV Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.528741 0.136479 -3.874153 0.0005 C(2) -0.631674 0.365161 -1.729851 0.0933 C(3) 0.099333 0.460532 0.215691 0.8306 C(4) 0.310753 0.158685 1.958303 0.0590 C(5) 0.627648 0.163734 3.833346 0.0006 C(6) 1.139797 0.422752 2.696136 0.0111 C(7) -0.013236 0.052014 -0.254471 0.8008 R-squared 0.996595 Mean dependent var 4.270142

Adjusted R-squared 0.995957 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.129178 Akaike info criterion -1.094108 Sum squared resid 0.533980 Schwarz criterion -0.795520 Log likelihood 28.33511 Durbin-Watson stat 2.029898

The Social-Democratic Government (1981-1989, 1994-2000) Dummy:

SOCIAL

The Consumption Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:52 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*SOCIAL

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.817303 0.314681 2.597240 0.0141 C(2) 0.541662 0.038394 14.10799 0.0000 C(3) 0.558879 0.060598 9.222737 0.0000 C(4) -1.109022 0.297755 -3.724612 0.0008 C(5) -0.072425 0.023253 -3.114591 0.0039 C(6) 0.693586 0.130995 5.294742 0.0000 C(7) 0.003720 0.006611 0.562698 0.5776

R-squared 0.999957 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999948 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013848 Akaike info criterion -5.560269 Sum squared resid 0.006136 Schwarz criterion -5.261681 Log likelihood 115.4252 Durbin-Watson stat 1.814700

Dependent Variable: LNINV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:00 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*SOCIAL

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 1.135110 1.274588 0.890570 0.3798 C(2) 0.558351 0.148465 3.760821 0.0007 C(3) 0.191927 0.149948 1.279954 0.2098 C(4) -1.034649 1.351341 -0.765646 0.4495 C(5) 0.183674 0.083335 2.204042 0.0348 C(6) 0.260239 0.215966 1.205000 0.2370 C(7) -0.039692 0.042685 -0.929863 0.3594 R-squared 0.997387 Mean dependent var 6.244436

Adjusted R-squared 0.996897 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.101127 Akaike info criterion -1.583727 Sum squared resid 0.327254 Schwarz criterion -1.285139 Log likelihood 37.88268 Durbin-Watson stat 1.919502

The Exports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:57 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*SOCIAL

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.474844 0.659035 -3.755253 0.0007 C(2) 0.813491 0.043842 18.55500 0.0000 C(3) 0.546591 0.133287 4.100863 0.0003 C(4) 0.004122 0.002253 1.829791 0.0763 C(5) 0.136976 0.137107 0.999045 0.3250 C(6) 0.097515 0.043360 2.248966 0.0313

R-squared 0.998134 Mean dependent var 5.987132 Adjusted R-squared 0.997851 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.099340 Akaike info criterion -1.639900 Sum squared resid 0.325658 Schwarz criterion -1.383968 Log likelihood 37.97806 Durbin-Watson stat 1.863903

Dependent Variable: LNIMPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 14:56 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*SOCIAL

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.347427 0.448863 -5.229724 0.0000 C(2) -0.102953 0.193675 -0.531578 0.5986 C(3) 1.189349 0.210431 5.651960 0.0000 C(4) 0.001983 0.000968 2.048133 0.0486 C(5) 1.035110 0.186409 5.552907 0.0000 C(6) 0.038422 0.020954 1.833614 0.0757

R-squared 0.999402 Mean dependent var 6.352694 Adjusted R-squared 0.999311 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.054465 Akaike info criterion -2.841882 Sum squared resid 0.097892 Schwarz criterion -2.585949 Log likelihood 61.41670 Durbin-Watson stat 2.056557

The Government Expenditure Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:02 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5) *LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*SOCIAL

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.526119 0.137566 -3.824475 0.0006 C(2) -0.634726 0.367421 -1.727517 0.0937 C(3) 0.054117 0.425849 0.127080 0.8997 C(4) 0.307768 0.158856 1.937404 0.0616 C(5) 0.630545 0.163531 3.855803 0.0005 C(6) 1.145303 0.427161 2.681200 0.0115 C(7) -0.000707 0.059659 -0.011849 0.9906 R-squared 0.996588 Mean dependent var 4.270142

Adjusted R-squared 0.995949 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.129308 Akaike info criterion -1.092091 Sum squared resid 0.535058 Schwarz criterion -0.793503 Log likelihood 28.29577 Durbin-Watson stat 2.034889

The Consumption Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/06 Time: 14:05 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*CONSERV1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.826953 0.441842 1.871603 0.0704 C(2) 0.550442 0.039195 14.04352 0.0000 C(3) 0.546059 0.071979 7.586381 0.0000 C(4) -1.108882 0.436009 -2.543255 0.0160 C(5) -0.068701 0.031413 -2.187020 0.0362 C(6) 0.691078 0.112746 6.129491 0.0000 C(7) 0.002800 0.006544 0.427901 0.6716

R-squared 0.999956 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999948 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013886 Akaike info criterion -5.554757 Sum squared resid 0.006170 Schwarz criterion -5.256169 Log likelihood 115.3178 Durbin-Watson stat 1.808192

The Investments Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:48 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*CONSERV1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -1.714760 1.652169 -1.037885 0.3071 C(2) 0.589613 0.178544 3.302341 0.0024 C(3) 0.083901 0.197330 0.425183 0.6735 C(4) 2.033170 1.827743 1.112394 0.2743 C(5) 0.237293 0.105728 2.244385 0.0319 C(6) 0.175531 0.226921 0.773536 0.4449 C(7) 0.148250 0.049955 2.967691 0.0056

R-squared 0.997908 Mean dependent var 6.244436 Adjusted R-squared 0.997516 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.090481 Akaike info criterion -1.806197 Sum squared resid 0.261980 Schwarz criterion -1.507609 Log likelihood 42.22085 Durbin-Watson stat 1.995991

Dependent Variable: LNEXPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:49 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5)

*RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*CONSERV1 Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.119854 0.601718 -3.523000 0.0013 C(2) 0.851426 0.039194 21.72342 0.0000 C(3) 0.466443 0.122628 3.803712 0.0006 C(4) 0.004622 0.002207 2.094395 0.0440 C(5) 0.152703 0.177026 0.862598 0.3946 C(6) -0.021437 0.056250 -0.381093 0.7056 R-squared 0.997994 Mean dependent var 5.987132

Adjusted R-squared 0.997690 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.102982 Akaike info criterion -1.567893 Sum squared resid 0.349972 Schwarz criterion -1.311961 Log likelihood 36.57391 Durbin-Watson stat 1.849874

The Imports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:50 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*CONSERV1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.238485 0.334349 -6.695065 0.0000 C(2) -0.034995 0.141410 -0.247469 0.8061 C(3) 1.122150 0.154114 7.281301 0.0000 C(4) 0.002737 0.001030 2.656930 0.0121 C(5) 0.917105 0.141845 6.465549 0.0000 C(6) 0.047337 0.024892 1.901686 0.0660

R-squared 0.999431 Mean dependent var 6.352694 Adjusted R-squared 0.999344 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.053131 Akaike info criterion -2.891457 Sum squared resid 0.093157 Schwarz criterion -2.635524 Log likelihood 62.38341 Durbin-Watson stat 1.718966

Dependent Variable: LNGOV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:51 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5)

*LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*CONSERV1 Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.498385 0.144387 -3.451725 0.0016 C(2) -0.618687 0.364772 -1.696095 0.0996 C(3) 0.188011 0.488010 0.385260 0.7026 C(4) 0.354716 0.179246 1.978933 0.0565 C(5) 0.581025 0.185866 3.126046 0.0038 C(6) 1.105377 0.426882 2.589422 0.0143 C(7) -0.039261 0.071156 -0.551762 0.5849 R-squared 0.996620 Mean dependent var 4.270142

Adjusted R-squared 0.995987 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.128698 Akaike info criterion -1.101555 Sum squared resid 0.530018 Schwarz criterion -0.802967 Log likelihood 28.48033 Durbin-Watson stat 2.063059

The Conservative Government of Konstantinos Mitsotakis (1990-1993)

Dummy: CONSERV

The Consumption Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:53 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*CONSERV2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.848304 0.460961 1.840293 0.0750 C(2) 0.546504 0.041825 13.06638 0.0000 C(3) 0.552364 0.074167 7.447584 0.0000 C(4) -1.136766 0.449736 -2.527628 0.0166 C(5) -0.070479 0.031564 -2.232904 0.0327 C(6) 0.699385 0.136325 5.130295 0.0000 C(7) -0.001761 0.007972 -0.220879 0.8266 R-squared 0.999956 Mean dependent var 7.437442

Adjusted R-squared 0.999948 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013908 Akaike info criterion -5.551613 Sum squared resid 0.006189 Schwarz criterion -5.253025 Log likelihood 115.2564 Durbin-Watson stat 1.800188

Dependent Variable: LNINV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:54 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*CONSERV2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.772949 1.592673 0.485316 0.6308 C(2) 0.570500 0.200929 2.839307 0.0078 C(3) 0.127562 0.224166 0.569051 0.5733 C(4) -0.510564 1.814929 -0.281314 0.7803 C(5) 0.219972 0.124986 1.759967 0.0880 C(6) 0.304670 0.252965 1.204394 0.2373 C(7) -0.032384 0.061121 -0.529837 0.5999 R-squared 0.997355 Mean dependent var 6.244436

Adjusted R-squared 0.996859 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.101732 Akaike info criterion -1.571809 Sum squared resid 0.331178 Schwarz criterion -1.273221 Log likelihood 37.65028 Durbin-Watson stat 1.997862

The Exports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:56 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5)

*RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*CONSERV2 Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.151335 0.592899 -3.628503 0.0010 C(2) 0.855048 0.033598 25.44927 0.0000 C(3) 0.468788 0.116423 4.026572 0.0003 C(4) 0.004518 0.002274 1.986543 0.0553 C(5) 0.137630 0.143686 0.957855 0.3451 C(6) -0.077322 0.037935 -2.038245 0.0496 R-squared 0.998088 Mean dependent var 5.987132

Adjusted R-squared 0.997799 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.100538 Akaike info criterion -1.615925 Sum squared resid 0.333560 Schwarz criterion -1.359992 Log likelihood 37.51054 Durbin-Watson stat 1.874741

Dependent Variable: LNIMPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:57 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*CONSERV2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.353324 0.458365 -5.134170 0.0000 C(2) -0.082701 0.193829 -0.426669 0.6724 C(3) 1.176479 0.212157 5.545317 0.0000 C(4) 0.002387 0.001010 2.364240 0.0241 C(5) 1.028437 0.187306 5.490675 0.0000 C(6) -0.054843 0.022547 -2.432403 0.0206 R-squared 0.999423 Mean dependent var 6.352694

Adjusted R-squared 0.999336 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.053463 Akaike info criterion -2.879021 Sum squared resid 0.094323 Schwarz criterion -2.623089 Log likelihood 62.14091 Durbin-Watson stat 2.117131

The Government Expenditure Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:59 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*DLOG(GOV1)+C(3)*DLNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5)

*LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*CONSERV2 Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.508610 0.155414 -3.272614 0.0026 C(2) -0.632286 0.365186 -1.731408 0.0930 C(3) 0.054350 0.425241 0.127811 0.8991 C(4) 0.325777 0.176847 1.842143 0.0747 C(5) 0.610971 0.184295 3.315187 0.0023 C(6) 1.135426 0.424638 2.673870 0.0117 C(7) 0.018858 0.082017 0.229923 0.8196

R-squared 0.996594 Mean dependent var 4.270142 Adjusted R-squared 0.995955 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.129202 Akaike info criterion -1.093737 Sum squared resid 0.534178 Schwarz criterion -0.795149 Log likelihood 28.32787 Durbin-Watson stat 2.053211

The Consumption Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:00 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*SOCIAL1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.733458 0.439344 1.669438 0.1048 C(2) 0.544116 0.039058 13.93113 0.0000 C(3) 0.564509 0.074145 7.613591 0.0000 C(4) -1.043931 0.414140 -2.520718 0.0169 C(5) -0.078698 0.032731 -2.404403 0.0222 C(6) 0.637073 0.117221 5.434820 0.0000 C(7) 0.007787 0.007335 1.061697 0.2963

R-squared 0.999958 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999950 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013636 Akaike info criterion -5.591002 Sum squared resid 0.005950 Schwarz criterion -5.292414 Log likelihood 116.0245 Durbin-Watson stat 1.812911

The Investments Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:02 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*SOCIAL1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 1.648641 1.400126 1.177495 0.2477 C(2) 0.525995 0.134918 3.898622 0.0005 C(3) 0.157143 0.150982 1.040807 0.3058 C(4) -1.415295 1.433797 -0.987096 0.3310 C(5) 0.232103 0.084173 2.757438 0.0095 C(6) 0.308460 0.204862 1.505695 0.1420 C(7) -0.041096 0.042590 -0.964934 0.3418 R-squared 0.997389 Mean dependent var 6.244436

Adjusted R-squared 0.996899 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.101085 Akaike info criterion -1.584558 Sum squared resid 0.326983 Schwarz criterion -1.285970 Log likelihood 37.89889 Durbin-Watson stat 1.980898

Dependent Variable: LNEXPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:04 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*SOCIAL1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.305934 0.586949 -3.928679 0.0004 C(2) 0.839416 0.035708 23.50791 0.0000 C(3) 0.502662 0.116580 4.311730 0.0001 C(4) 0.003028 0.002137 1.417084 0.1658 C(5) 0.084480 0.133397 0.633295 0.5309 C(6) 0.090808 0.035190 2.580476 0.0145

R-squared 0.998167 Mean dependent var 5.987132 Adjusted R-squared 0.997889 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.098460 Akaike info criterion -1.657690 Sum squared resid 0.319916 Schwarz criterion -1.401758 Log likelihood 38.32496 Durbin-Watson stat 1.804847

The Imports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:05 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*SOCIAL1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.406979 0.429919 -5.598678 0.0000 C(2) -0.113264 0.185514 -0.610543 0.5457 C(3) 1.205954 0.201703 5.978845 0.0000 C(4) 0.001344 0.000899 1.494259 0.1446 C(5) 0.960933 0.174042 5.521258 0.0000 C(6) 0.058684 0.019832 2.958964 0.0057

R-squared 0.999455 Mean dependent var 6.352694 Adjusted R-squared 0.999373 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.051970 Akaike info criterion -2.935664 Sum squared resid 0.089129 Schwarz criterion -2.679732 Log likelihood 63.24545 Durbin-Watson stat 1.950894

Dependent Variable: LNGOV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:06 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5) *LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*SOCIAL1

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.528337 0.147476 -3.582538 0.0011 C(2) -0.633043 0.436664 -1.449724 0.1569 C(3) 0.059838 0.485382 0.123281 0.9027 C(4) 0.305948 0.161609 1.893134 0.0674 C(5) 0.632391 0.166736 3.792775 0.0006 C(6) 1.143916 0.480283 2.381756 0.0233 C(7) -0.002250 0.062766 -0.035843 0.9716 R-squared 0.996588 Mean dependent var 4.270142

Adjusted R-squared 0.995949 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.129305 Akaike info criterion -1.092133 Sum squared resid 0.535035 Schwarz criterion -0.793545 Log likelihood 28.29658 Durbin-Watson stat 2.035728

The Social-Democratic Government of Konstantinos Simitis (1994-2000)

Dummy: SOCIAL

The Consumption Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:08 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*SOCIAL2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.813456 0.422635 1.924724 0.0632 C(2) 0.570026 0.038479 14.81396 0.0000 C(3) 0.540001 0.065954 8.187584 0.0000 C(4) -1.125111 0.409312 -2.748787 0.0098 C(5) -0.077870 0.030947 -2.516241 0.0171 C(6) 0.561489 0.160347 3.501712 0.0014 C(7) -0.015866 0.015174 -1.045572 0.3036 R-squared 0.999958 Mean dependent var 7.437442

Adjusted R-squared 0.999950 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013640 Akaike info criterion -5.590447 Sum squared resid 0.005954 Schwarz criterion -5.291859 Log likelihood 116.0137 Durbin-Watson stat 1.732199

Dependent Variable: LNINV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:11 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*SOCIAL2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.942219 1.754338 0.537080 0.5949 C(2) 0.575423 0.160885 3.576609 0.0011 C(3) 0.148497 0.184821 0.803466 0.4276 C(4) -0.728658 1.659994 -0.438952 0.6636 C(5) 0.198702 0.125717 1.580545 0.1238 C(6) 0.290573 0.246425 1.179155 0.2470 C(7) 0.000547 0.071399 0.007657 0.9939

R-squared 0.997332 Mean dependent var 6.244436 Adjusted R-squared 0.996832 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.102177 Akaike info criterion -1.563076 Sum squared resid 0.334083 Schwarz criterion -1.264488 Log likelihood 37.47998 Durbin-Watson stat 1.954719

The Exports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:12 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*SOCIAL2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -1.953399 0.571846 -3.415950 0.0017 C(2) 0.866733 0.035563 24.37185 0.0000 C(3) 0.428982 0.113999 3.763051 0.0007 C(4) 0.004078 0.002153 1.894141 0.0670 C(5) 0.137738 0.147704 0.932531 0.3578 C(6) -0.027126 0.039030 -0.695013 0.4919 R-squared 0.997998 Mean dependent var 5.987132

Adjusted R-squared 0.997695 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.102878 Akaike info criterion -1.569913 Sum squared resid 0.349266 Schwarz criterion -1.313981 Log likelihood 36.61331 Durbin-Watson stat 1.839660

Dependent Variable: LNIMPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:13 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*SOCIAL2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.234319 0.477194 -4.682207 0.0000 C(2) -0.025651 0.206739 -0.124076 0.9020 C(3) 1.116448 0.224379 4.975724 0.0000 C(4) 0.002248 0.000948 2.370571 0.0238 C(5) 0.913438 0.186365 4.901329 0.0000 C(6) -0.038445 0.032925 -1.167654 0.2513 R-squared 0.999392 Mean dependent var 6.352694

Adjusted R-squared 0.999299 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.054915 Akaike info criterion -2.825423 Sum squared resid 0.099517 Schwarz criterion -2.569490 Log likelihood 61.09574 Durbin-Watson stat 1.711913

The Government Expenditure Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 16:15 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5) *LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*SOCIAL2

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.530153 0.160124 -3.310884 0.0023 C(2) -0.633561 0.366680 -1.727832 0.0937 C(3) 0.069523 0.521165 0.133399 0.8947 C(4) 0.302277 0.190311 1.588333 0.1220 C(5) 0.635431 0.189408 3.354826 0.0021 C(6) 1.146668 0.422622 2.713222 0.0106 C(7) 0.005613 0.110871 0.050628 0.9599

R-squared 0.996588 Mean dependent var 4.270142 Adjusted R-squared 0.995949 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.129303 Akaike info criterion -1.092167 Sum squared resid 0.535017 Schwarz criterion -0.793579 Log likelihood 28.29725 Durbin-Watson stat 2.031558

The Consumption Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:18 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNCONS=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(CONS1)+C(3)*LNYD+C(4)*RP1+C(5) *LNMD+C(6)*RESIDCONS1+C(7)*EU

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.852810 0.301081 2.832494 0.0079 C(2) 0.544456 0.036643 14.85836 0.0000 C(3) 0.556233 0.058905 9.442920 0.0000 C(4) -1.140053 0.286356 -3.981242 0.0004 C(5) -0.073386 0.023309 -3.148368 0.0035 C(6) 0.651335 0.140760 4.627264 0.0001 C(7) 0.007606 0.010934 0.695621 0.4917

R-squared 0.999957 Mean dependent var 7.437442 Adjusted R-squared 0.999949 S.D. dependent var 1.928618 S.E. of regression 0.013812 Akaike info criterion -5.565431 Sum squared resid 0.006105 Schwarz criterion -5.266843 Log likelihood 115.5259 Durbin-Watson stat 1.777039

The Investments Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:19 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNINV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(INV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*RP1+C(5)*LNMD+C(6) *RESIDINV1+C(7)*EU

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 0.937212 1.357528 0.690381 0.4949 C(2) 0.476768 0.150451 3.168921 0.0034 C(3) 0.217775 0.148412 1.467368 0.1520 C(4) -0.928230 1.421786 -0.652862 0.5185 C(5) 0.249517 0.077974 3.199993 0.0031 C(6) 0.242130 0.198707 1.218526 0.2319 C(7) -0.163547 0.076997 -2.124067 0.0415 R-squared 0.997674 Mean dependent var 6.244436

Adjusted R-squared 0.997238 S.D. dependent var 1.815294 S.E. of regression 0.095406 Akaike info criterion -1.700206 Sum squared resid 0.291273 Schwarz criterion -1.401618 Log likelihood 40.15401 Durbin-Watson stat 2.025293

Dependent Variable: LNEXPO Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:21 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance LNEXPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(EXPO1)+C(3)*LNYG+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDEXPO1+C(6)*EU

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.099195 0.625597 -3.355508 0.0020 C(2) 0.844936 0.051237 16.49064 0.0000 C(3) 0.466091 0.130303 3.576974 0.0011 C(4) 0.004252 0.002236 1.902078 0.0659 C(5) 0.155092 0.142987 1.084653 0.2859 C(6) 0.036331 0.092294 0.393645 0.6964

R-squared 0.997992 Mean dependent var 5.987132 Adjusted R-squared 0.997688 S.D. dependent var 2.142832 S.E. of regression 0.103032 Akaike info criterion -1.566914 Sum squared resid 0.350315 Schwarz criterion -1.310981 Log likelihood 36.55482 Durbin-Watson stat 1.839646

The Imports Function

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:22 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNIMPO=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(IMPO1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*SEXP+C(5) *RESIDIMPO1+C(6)*EU

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -2.221606 0.353505 -6.284519 0.0000 C(2) -0.026359 0.154219 -0.170918 0.8653 C(3) 1.115208 0.165659 6.731964 0.0000 C(4) 0.002678 0.001204 2.225027 0.0330 C(5) 0.971809 0.147265 6.599065 0.0000 C(6) -0.016494 0.047926 -0.344159 0.7329 R-squared 0.999370 Mean dependent var 6.352694

Adjusted R-squared 0.999275 S.D. dependent var 2.074848 S.E. of regression 0.055867 Akaike info criterion -2.791051 Sum squared resid 0.102997 Schwarz criterion -2.535118 Log likelihood 60.42549 Durbin-Watson stat 1.845525

Dependent Variable: LNGOV Method: Least Squares Date: 10/16/06 Time: 15:24 Sample (adjusted): 1962 2000

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

LNGOV=C(1)+C(2)*LOG(GOV1)+C(3)*LNY+C(4)*LNT+C(5) *LNCTPN+C(6)*RESIDGOV1+C(7)*EU

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) -0.488993 0.190067 -2.572737 0.0149 C(2) -0.650347 0.368881 -1.763029 0.0874 C(3) 0.061739 0.425923 0.144954 0.8857 C(4) 0.329951 0.177424 1.859672 0.0721 C(5) 0.601596 0.193787 3.104420 0.0040 C(6) 1.160727 0.425248 2.729528 0.0102 C(7) 0.029617 0.106599 0.277840 0.7829

R-squared 0.996596 Mean dependent var 4.270142 Adjusted R-squared 0.995958 S.D. dependent var 2.031507 S.E. of regression 0.129153 Akaike info criterion -1.094496 Sum squared resid 0.533772 Schwarz criterion -0.795908 Log likelihood 28.34267 Durbin-Watson stat 2.027756