Skiing in Pirin National Park

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Skiing in

Pirin

National

Park

April 18

2013

Thijs Haverkamp, Frans de Heij & Koen Mulder

Expert: Prem Bindraban Tutor: Yrrah Stol

Abstract: This paper tries to identify what type of governance could resolve the conflict that appears to be existing between a pristine ecosystem and the potential profits of expansion of ski-areas of Bansko into the Pirin National Park in Bulgaria. Facets of this problem are researched upon with theories and methods from different disciplines. Results are integrated in an overarching framework method inspired by the Actor Network Theory of Bruno Latour. Relevant actors, such as the government, tourists and the ecosystem itself are identified, as well as their program (what they would like to happen) and anti-program (what they do not want) about the use of the area. Based on these (anti-) programs the actors are given values for their power and desire in four different scenarios: maintaining the current state, full expansion, ecotourism expansion and cooperative expansion. Power being a value to represent in relation to the other actors how much power the actor possesses. Desire being a value which represent how much of this power the actor will use in their favour. Power times Desire gives an identification for the driving force of an actor. Putting these values in the four different scenarios there was found that maintaining the current state creates a large conflict and that full expansion suits the strongest actors. The method used in this paper enables to file a conflict. By influencing the program and anti-program and thereby the actors values appearing conflicts can be solved.

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1 Introduction

“A nature reserve containing unique biodiversity and spectacular formations” (UNESCO, 2013). The Pirin National Park lies in the southwest of Bulgaria and covers most of the Pirin Mountains, with an area of about 400 km2_{. The park was included on the UNESCO World Heritage list in 1983 for its unique plant and} animal species, mainly because of the great relief diversity and its unique location. Additionally, the area is part of the Natura 2000 network of protected ecosystems (Wikipedia, 2013).

Next to the Pirin National Park lies a village

with about 8500 inhabitants, called Bansko. The town Bansko is famous by tourists for its ski area during the winter season, and for the numbers of mountain forests and lakes in the region. The ski area contains about 60 kilometres of ski runs in the area in 2012, but plans are currently being set by the regional government to increase these runs to 200 kilometres (Dimitrova, 2011). A conflict between a pristine ecosystem and potential profits from ski activities in the park appears to be arising.

Until now, the state plan for the management of the Pirin National Park forbids implementation of sports and urbanization projects in the park, but this plan expires at the end of 2013. Moreover, on 19 February 2013 the Ecological Council of the Ministry of Environment and Water (MoEW) approved an amendment to the Management Plan of the Pirin National Park so that the construction of new ski infrastructure and other associated activities in the park are no longer illegal (WWF Global, 2013). The expansion of the ski slopes is encouraged, not only by the great economic potential for the government and local livelihood, but also by the high level of unemployment in the region due to the economic crisis (Dimitrova, 2011). However, UNESCO and environmentalists are warning that the plans will result in degradation of the ecosystem, and will yield negative effects on the long-term economic interests of local people in the area. They are promoting ecotourism as a more sustainable alternative for the area (Dimitrova, 2011).

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3 This study tries to make a problem analysis of the current situation, and proposes a method to come to a type of governance for Bansko and the Pirin National Park, that is sustainable, in a way that it takes into account long-term effects for both local inhabitants as well as the ecosystem. The conflict between the pristine Pirin ecosystem and the potential benefits from winter tourism in the park for the local livelihood is point of departure. Therefore, the following research question is proposed:

What type of governance can resolve the conflict that appears to be existing between a pristine ecosystem and the potential profits of expansion of ski-areas of Bansko into the Pirin National Park, Bulgaria?

As many different sort of actors are involved in the conflict, such as the Bulgarian and local government of Bansko, but also the local livelihood and NGO’s, theories from different disciplines have to be used and combined to give insight in the problem. Theories from ecology, such as resilience and habitat fragmentation are important to understand the ecological effects of ski slope creation on the National Park. Theories from the economic discipline are required to understand the financial dependence, growth, development and potential benefits of ski slope expansion. Also understanding of tourism is vital, and tourism is often argued to require a non-disciplinary approach (Echtnet, 1997). Finally, to understand how the governments take their positions and what their drivers are, knowledge from political science is of significant importance. Thus, as many different theories and disciplines give insight in the problem an interdisciplinary approach is needed. To combine these different insights and theories, the Actor Network Theory (ANT) by Latour (1992) will be used. Briefly, the idea of the ANT is that every actor is connected and has influence on other actors. In this light, actors can be all things that play a part in the problem or process. Consequently, actors can be individuals, groups, techniques, nature, etc. The ANT will be used in this study to provide structure and give insight into the conflict and as a foundation for an actor valuation methodology. Both the ANT and the actor valuation methodology will be described in more detail in the Methodology paragraph.

To find all the actors involved, the actors were divided in three possible groups; consumers, producers and government (Eadington, 1991). All actors can be assigned to at least one of these groups. An overview of the actors is provided in the figure below. In the last row, the actors are found. In red, the consuming actors are shown, containing ecotourism, winter tourism, developers, and (un)employed and dependent locals. In green the producing actor is shown, which is the Pirin National Park ecosystem. Finally, in blue the governing actors are shown, which consists of the Bulgarian government, UNESCO, ENGO’s and Natura 2000. Note that the dependent locals are not described later on in the paper, because it is forbidden to fish, log or hunt in the Pirin Park, therefore there are no dependent locals. (Dountchev, 2013)

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4 Figure 2 - Actor identification: red shows consuming actors, green shows producing actors, and blue shows governing actors. In the following part of this paper, first the methodology will be described. Here the Actor Network Theory will be described in more detail, as well as an implementation of this method in this study. Consequently, the results of our research will be presented, where for each scenario a table with a description will be presented. From these results, a conclusion will be drawn about which a type of governance is recommended, that can resolve the conflict. Finally, in the discussion, the gaps in our research will be identified and recommendations for further research and action will be made.

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2 Methodology

The Actor Network Theory by Latour (1992) will be used as an overall methodology in this study. In this paragraph, firstly the theory itself, and its implementation in this research will be described. Secondly, the methodology for identification and program analysis of the different actors will be explained. Consequently, the valuation of desirability and power of different actors within different scenarios will be discussed. Finally, four different scenarios are provided in detail.

2.1 Actor Network Theory and implementation

The ANT was conducted by Latour in 1980. The ANT is about actors and their relations. Actors can be all things that play a part in the problem or process. Every actor has certain characteristics and is set in a network with all the other actors. Based on the characteristics, the actors have a program and anti-program. The program is what the actor wants to happen and the anti-program exists of what the actor opposes. In the ANT the actors influence each other. Actors are therefore not solid but will change as other actors or factors change. This theory improves the cooperation between society and technology and provides a framework in which complex problems can be mapped (Latour, 1992).

For implementation of the ANT in this research, first all the actors have to be identified. In the identification all relevant characteristics will be presented based on different theories from different disciplines. Consequently, what the actors want (their program) and what they oppose (anti-program) will be described, based on the identification. After setting the actors programs and anti-programs they will be given values in four different scenarios for both desire and power. In conclusion, the ANT is conducted to improve understanding of the influence of different actors on each other in different settings.

2.2 Power and desirability valuation

After the ANT is implemented for this conflict, a power and desirability valuation is made for four different scenarios. For each actor, its power will be valuated, as well as its desire for a certain scenario. Power is defined as the power (on a scale from 1 to 5, 1 being very little power and 5 a lot of power) an actor has, to realize or oppose a certain scenario. For example, the developers have more power to create a scenario where Pirin is fully exploited, to create a scenario where knowledge is needed. Moreover, both power and influence are taken into account in the valuation of Power. This means that not only the ability to make decisions and change laws is meant under with power, but also the influence an actor has on a public debate or other actors, for example by writing an interesting article in a newspaper. But also by being economically important or by buying political influence (van der Eijck, 2001). Desire is the desire to use this power. It is on a scale from -5 to +5. Minus 5 being the desire to oppose the certain scenario strongly and 5 to strongly prefer the certain scenario. The value 0 can be regarded as a neutral perspective. The numbers for desire are derived from the programs and anti-programs of the various actors. The power is derived from the identification of the actors. Also, they are both relative to the other numbers in the table.

2.4 Scenarios

To be able to answer our main question, four scenarios will be used to investigate its effect on relations between actors; continuation of the current state, full expansion of ski slopes into the national park, full exploitation of ecotourism, and expansion of ski slopes in cooperation with research groups.

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1. Current State

In the current state scenario, nothing is changed. This means the management plan of 2004 will be carried out The Pirin National Park stays as it is now and the ski region shall not expand. Also other expansions, such as eco-tourism shall not be expanded. Everything will be focused on keeping the Pirin Park as it is.

2. Full expansion

The full expansion is the other extreme scenario. In this scenario, the developers will have the possibility to expand the full 200 km of ski slopes into the Pirin National Park. This would mean that the pristine ecosystem will not be taken into account and that the resilience of ecosystem will drop. On the other hand, the Bansko ski region and therefore economy will be able to grow.

3. Ecotourism

The ecotourism scenario is a compromising scenario. It provides an alternative for the expansion of the ski facilities. Right now, there is some ecotourism, but it is not at its full potential. This means there is room to expand in this sector, and therefore grant the local government and the local inhabitants of the area an alternative income. Ecotourism has minimum impact on the ecosystem and is therefore more preferable for the actors that want to maintain the Pirin National Park.

4. Cooperative Expansion

The cooperative model is also an alternative for the full expansion. In this scenario, the ski region of Bansko will be able to expand, but with strict rules from a trans disciplinary research committee. This committee will be able to decide where ski slopes must be build and where or how many facilities are allowed in the Pirin Park. The committee will exist of several (independent) researchers of different disciplines but also stakeholders in the case. Developing companies (such as Yulen), locals and ENGOs might also have valid and useful information in order to find a way to expand the Bansko ski zone with minimum impact on the ecosystem.

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3 Results

Firstly, the actors will be described that are identified using the Actor Network Theory (Latour, 1992). Consequently, interactions between actors are described. Finally, the power of actors will be valuated and their desirability for each scenario.

3.1 Actor description

In this paragraph, all actors will be identified and their program and anti-program will be presented, using the Actor Network Theory. Firstly, the ecosystem will be identified as an actor, and its program. Consequently, the actors Natura 2000, Bulgarian Government, Bansko government, developers, ENGO’s, UNESCO, ecotourism, winter tourism and locals will be discussed.

The Ecosystem

The area on which this very conflict is based, and is here described as an actor in the network, is the Pirin National Park. Lying at an altitude of 1,008-2,914 in the Pirin Mountains, this park is characterized by a limestone Balkan landscape, containing lakes, waterfalls, caves and coniferous pine forests. Of the 40 ha of National Park, about 23 ha is forests this forests consists of 94% of dwarf pine species, of which the Macedonian Pine species is the most dominant one. This Macedonian Pine is also included in the IUCN Red List of Threatened species (Nicolov, 2006). In total, there are 1,315 species of vascular plants, including 86 Balkan endemics, 17 Bulgarian endemics and 18 local endemics (UNESCO, 2010). The fauna of the park consists of 2091 species and subspecies of invertebrates, of which 294 rare species and 216 endemics. The UNESCO has also recognized the park as an Important Bird Area (Nicolov, 2006).

Programme & anti-programme

To describe the programme of the ecosystem actor, it is necessary to determine what is beneficial for an ecosystem in general. One could state that a high resilience of the ecosystem could be a possible programme of the Pirin ecosystem. Holling defined the term ‘ecosystem resilience’ (as mentioned by Chaplin III FS et al (2000)) as the magnitude of disturbance that a system can experience before it shifts into a different state or stability domain (Folke et al., 2004). He noted that when a disturbance is large enough, an ecosystem can experience a so-called regime shift, and get into a completely other ecosystem state. Such a regime shift can yield tremendous effects for the biodiversity of an ecosystem, as for example a major disturbance in an ecosystem can cause extinction of a top predator, resulting in an overpopulation of a certain prey (a trophic cascade) (Folke et al, 2004).

There appears to be a significant relevance of resilience for the current state of Pirin National Park ecosystem. When the resilience of the ecosystem is high, the ecosystem will not get into another state in case of small disturbances. As the pressure on the Pirin ecosystem increases, due to increasing human interest in activities in the Pirin National Park, a high resilience will be crucial for the ecosystem to maintain the state in which it now functions and maintain the unique biodiversity features that it contains currently (see Appendix A).

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8 The anti-program of the ecosystem will here be directly related to the plans of expansion of ski slopes in the area. The study of Rixen et al. (2003) describes that there are negative effects of ski slope creation and maintenance on the local environment, due to e.g. snow compaction, ground levelling. They also stress the negative effects of the usage of artificial snow for the local environment. Secondly, on a large scale, the creation of ski slopes will result in habitat fragmentation and edge effects. This yields logically negative effects for biodiversity and thus resilience (see Appendix A).

Natura 2000

The Natura 2000 is an ecological network of protected areas in the territory of the European Union. This ecological network is mainly founded on the Habitats Directive from 1992, and the Birds Directive from 1979. The Birds Directive has established Special Protection Areas (SPAs) for birds, and similarly the Habitats Directive has resulted in Special Areas of Conservation (SACs). Together, these directives make up the Natura 2000 network of protected areas. Each EU member state is obliged to establish its own network of protected nature zones that will protect land, plants and animals of European importance.

Programme & anti-programme

The key role of Natura 2000 lies in preserving endangered habitats and species. In this way, biodiversity of an ecosystem can be maintained. In addition to this biodiversity benefits, the Natura 2000 network provides a range of benefits for society and local livelihoods by securing the ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services) (European Commission, 2013). Natura 2000 supports policy far beyond biodiversity, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, water quality and provision, food provision, jobs and livelihoods, cost savings, science and education, health and security, social cohesion and identity (European Commission, 2013).

Figure 3 - Ecological resilience: when a disturbance is high enough, the ecosystem (the ball) will get into another state (valley). A low resilience decreases the threshold that indicates a regime shift.

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9 One could state that the Natura 2000 actor generally has the same programme and anti-program as the Pirin National Park ecosystem actor. However, Natura 2000 is not a system of strict nature reserves where all human activities are excluded. Whereas the network will certainly include nature reserves, most of the land is likely to continue to be privately owned and the emphasis will be on ensuring that future management is sustainable, both ecologically and economically. Tourism and recreation can play a significant role in the sustainable management of this area. Therefore, the Natura 2000 actor will, for example, will not have a negative view regarding an increase of ecotourism in the area.

The anti-program of the Natura 2000 will logically exist of unsustainable management of the Pirin National Park ecosystem. As large scale expansion of ski slopes into the park ecosystem, yields negative effects for the biodiversity and resilience of the park on the long term, the European Union are certainly not in favour of these plans for the area.

Bulgarian Government

It is important to take the political setting into consideration. Since 2007, the year Bulgaria joined the European Union, they were led by a right-centred coalition. In this coalition, the Citizens for the European development of Bulgaria (GERB) led by Boyko Borisov have been the leading party. (Freedom in the World, 2013) On February the 20th_{the government fell because of massive protests. (Reuters, 2013)} In Bulgaria, corruption is a serious problem. (Appendix D) This shows the political instability in Bulgaria.

Because of this, we chose a more stable institution, the Ministry of Environment and Water (MoEW), as the main institution of the government considering the Pirin case. Also, the MoEW has jurisdiction over National parks and is therefore responsible for the Pirin National Park. It has the possibility to change law and make amendments. Because of these possibilities, the Bulgarian national government is a very powerful actor. Because of all the conflicts the Pirin case has become a political game with lots of reputations at stake. The MoEW has made it very public that they do want to make the expansion of the ski slopes. If this would not happen, the MoEW will lead to a considerable loss of face. This means the management of the Pirin case is of quite high importance for the Bulgarian government (Noordegraaf, 2008). This leads to a different strategy for the MoEW (See Appendix C).

In Bulgaria the winter tourism sector is growing with approximately 6% per year. In 2011 there were 3 million visitors during the winter season (European Commission, 2011). Tourism contributes directly around 7% of the GDP and 5% of employment. While indirectly it is estimated that the tourism sector contributes over 15% of the GDP and more than 13% employment (OECD, n.d.). As the Bulgarian government has had issues in the past with increasing debts, for instance the Bulgarian crisis in 1997, and a shortage on their current account. Also Bulgaria has a very high unemployment rate.

If we set Bulgaria in a Swann Diagram we see that there is no external and no internal balance, while these balances are desirable. Internal balance is that full employment and low inflation is achieved. External balance is when the current account is zero. That is when the import meets the export (Pillbeam, 2006). Bulgaria is right of the external balance and above the internal balance as seen in figure 3. Increasing tourism in Bulgaria would lead to increasing economic activity and a shift of the lines “internal balance’ and ‘external balance’ (figure 4), so that these would be in balance (see Appendix B).

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10 Figure 4 - Swann Diagram Bulgaria

Figure 5 - Modified Swann Diagram Bulgaria

Program & Anti-program

The MoEW has a clear agenda. On the 19th_{of February 2013, they approved an amendment to the} management plan of the Pirin National Park that “the restriction regimes for the construction of new ski infrastructure and other associated activities in the park are removed”. The government has changed the Management Plan of the Pirin Park, all in favor of the expansion of the ski region (ZaDaOstanePRIRODA, 2013). This shows that the Bulgarian Government wants the Bansko skiing area to expand.

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11 The economic benefits of expansion of the touristic sector seems to promising, because of the increase in export rate. So form both a political and economic point of view, the program of the Bulgarian Government is to expand the ski region.

Bansko Government

The Bansko government in this paper is represented by the Bansko municipality. This for the same reason the MeOW was chosen as representative for the Bulgarian government. The municipality is the most political stable institution in the Bansko government. Also, they have the power (by law) to make and implement a plan for the region. Of course, the Pirin area is of high importance for the Bansko government. They see it as their (only) possibility to expand their economy. But their power is not that big. Of course they can make decisions in their municipality borders, but the decisions of the Pirin National Park are made by the national government. As municipality they have the task to protect the interests of the locals in the Bansko area.

The Bansko government want to expand their skiing facilities. In 2005 they made a Territorial Development Plan where the ski zone would expand. This was/is against the agreements of the Management Plan of 2004. (ZaDaOstanePRIRODA, 2013)

Developers (Yulen and Vitosha Ski)

Yulen co and Vitosha are a companies that have been given the contracts to build the ski facilities. The organization has its headquarters in Bansko. Owner of the tour operators in the Pirin area is Tseko Minev, he is a very rich and powerful man that builds the ski slopes via these two companies. (Dountchev, 2013) Important to know is the fact that the Bansko municipality is shareholder of Yulen. Therefore the power of Yulen is somewhat bigger than it seems. Yulen has both economic and political power. Via Yulen en Vitosha, Tseko Minev seems to have a monopoly in the Pirin area. (ZaDaOstanePRIRODA, 2013) (Dountchev, 2013)

Program & Anti-Program

Because of their economic interest, the developers want the Bansko ski region to expand into the Pirin Park. This means they oppose the strong will to preserve the Pirin Park as it is.

ENGOs

The structures of NGOs vary considerably. They can be global; with either a relatively strong central authority or not. Alternatively, they may be based in a single country and operate transnationally. With the improvement in communications, more of the local bottom-up organizations, have become active at the national or even the global level. Increasingly this occurs through the formation of coalitions. There are international umbrella NGOs, providing an institutional structure for different NGOs that do not share a common identity. There are also looser issue-based networks and ad hoc caucuses, lobbying at UN conferences. (Willetts, 2006) The ENGOs in the Pirin case (Environmental Nongovernmental Organizations) are united in the Bulgarian “Future for Nature” NGO coalition. World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) is the founder of this coalition.

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All ENGOs want to preserve the Pirin National Park.

Therefore, the ENGOs have a very strong anti-agenda. They strongly oppose the expansion of the Bansko ski zone. They ask the next things of the Bulgarian Government:

• stops the amendments of the Management Plan of Pirin National Park • annuls the concession contract with Yulen JSC for the Bansko ski zone in Pirin National Park. • implements the Management plan of the Pirin National Park and the Strategy for the development of sustainable tourism in Pirin NP as part of the European environmental network NATURA 2000 and UNESCO World Natural Heritage site.

(ZaDaOstanePRIRODA, 2013)

UNESCO

The United Nations Organization for Education, Science and Culture (UNESCO) is an organization that focusses on the building of peace, the eradication of poverty, sustainable development and intercultural dialogue through education, the sciences, culture, communication and information. (UNESCO, n.d.) The conservation of cultural and natural heritage is embodied in the Convention concerning the Protection of

the World Cultural and Natural Heritage, adopted by UNESCO in 1972. (UNESCO, n.d.)

UNESCO does not have very much power in a political way. They only have knowledge but no instruments to stop the expansion directly. The way they try to stop it now is by using Bulgarian and European law. The influence of the Pirin Park on UNESCO is not very large. The only thing at stake is the authority of UNESCO. If they fail to stop the expansion, they will look weak. This will mean reputation loss (see Appendix C).

Because the Pirin park is a world heritage. UNESCO's agenda is to preserve the park. Consequently, they want to stop the expansion of the Bansko ski facilities into the Pirin Park.

Ecotourism

Ecotourism is a form of tourism involving visiting pristine and relatively undisturbed natural areas intended as low-impact and small scale alternative to conventional tourism. Its purpose may be to educate the traveler, to provide funds for ecological conservation, to directly benefit the economic development and political empowerment of local communities, or to foster respect for different cultures and for human rights (Honey, 2008). Ecotourism in Pirin now mostly exists of mountains treks and walking tours. There are several organization who provide these treks and tours in the summer, however none in the winter. At this time the ecotourism sector is not in its full potential. The government does not advert with the landscape and ecotourism possibilities, it only adverts for winter tourism (Dountchev, 2013). Ecotourism is not a well-organized organization and has therefore not so much power. As there is a limitation to areas which are suitable for high quality ecotourism the importance for the ecotourism sector to maintain Pirin National Park is large.

The program of the eco tourists is to preserve the Pirin National Park. So they would oppose to expansion of the ski slopes. However as the area has a high potential for ecotourism they would favor more

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13 exploitation of that potential. To fulfill the full potential high quality additional tourist services are required (PNP management plan, 2004).

Winter tourism

Winter tourism is the tourism sector which is based on winter activities such as skiing. Winter tourism in Europe growths every year around 3 percent (Eurostat, 2013). Tourism is Bulgaria during the winter season was in 2011 around the 3 million visitors. Bansko is increasing in popularity for winter tourism. And as the demand for winter tourism in whole of Europe increases the need for more ski slopes emerges, and the economic benefits increases. The potential for large winter tourism in Bansko is huge. However as the winter tourism sector is not a single striking organization its power is not so large. And winter tourism is not completely dependent on whether there is expansion in Bansko or not (Rixen et all, 2011).

The program of winter tourists is to expand ski slopes. They want more and larger ski areas and favorable in ‘cheap’ countries. They demand good facilities and prefer to ski in a nice area. The winter tourism sector does not take loss of ecosystems into account. Their program is to get as much ski slopes and facilities as possible.

Locals

Bansko has a population of 9000. Around 62 percent is at working age and the employment rate in rural and intermediate areas is around 43 percent. So almost 4000 locals have a job and around 1700 are looking for a job. The area is poor, the people are poorly educated and seem to see the solution in winter tourism expansion (Dountchev, 2013). As expansion of the winter tourism would lead to more economic activity which would lead to more demand for labor which would lead to a stronger position for the locals (Pilbeam, 2006). However in the group locals there are 2 sub-groups; the employed locals and the unemployed locals. Both the employed and unemployed locals have weak power and a high desire. The power and desire is slightly different between these groups. The employed locals have more power than the unemployed as their group is larger and they possess some important functions. The unemployed however have a larger desire for expansion as they have more need for a job. Further in this research the locals will be split into two groups, the employed and unemployed.

The locals strongly favor expansion of the winter tourism sector. They strongly oppose to maintain the current situation. Any change of the current situation will have a positive desire (Dountchev, 2013).

3.2 Interactions between actors

Now we have identified all the actors and their programs, we need to identify their relation to each other. Where are alliances, where are dependencies and who influences who? In general, the main conflict appears to be based on a difference of usage of the Pirin National park ecosystem. The one hand, the Bulgarian and local government of Bansko both see great economic potential in large scale development of ski slopes in the Pirin National Park. Also for the local economic situation such plans appear to be desirable, because of the high level of unemployment in Bansko. On the other hand, ENGOs and UNESCO state that the unique biodiversity of the ecosystem must not be degraded, and they both use the European legislation to state that exploitation of the ecosystem trough ski slope creation is illegal, because it is part of the Natura 2000 network of protected ecosystems.

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14 On a large scale, the ecosystem provides ecosystem services for all the local actors in the area. More subtle interactions regarding the ecosystem, occur between the environmentalists (ENGOs and UNESCO) and ecotourism, as Natura 2000 allows tourism in the area, as long as the ecosystem is sustainably managed. However, UNESCO and ENGOs are divided in this aspect, as UNESCO is more willing to cooperate with the Bansko government in the creation of ski slopes than the ENGOs, who are more negative towards any human activity in the ecosystem. Logically, as the Bulgaria has a democratic political system, the local livelihood has influence on both the Bulgarian and the Bansko government by voting. In return, these governments protect the interests of the local people. Thus, the opinion of the local people, employed as well as unemployed, will play a very significant role in the conflict.

The developers play a very interesting role in the conflict, as some people of the Bansko

government appear to be stakeholders in the developing companies that have great economical interest in winter tourism in the Pirin National park. Additionally, the developers appears to receive state funds from the Bulgarian government (Figure 6). According to ENGOs, illegal state funds are given to the ski industries and not to eco-tourism. The Bulgarian government only supports the winter tourism. This would mean the winter tourism sector might not as beneficiary as it seems. (Dountchev, 2013) Finally, the local livelihood is influenced by the developers, as a part of them is employed there, and expansion leads logically to more jobs in winter tourism in the future.

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15 Figure 7 - Actor interactions and relations

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3.3 Tables & Description

The data in the column desire are derived from the programs and anti-programs of the different actors. The power is derived from the identification of the actors. For example, the power of an actor can be moderate, but because the scenario is almost identical to the program of the actor, the desire can be very high. The last column of each table shows the desire*power, to show the size of the actors opposition or favour for the scenario. If a powerful actor does not use all of his power, the size of his opposition will not be as big as an actor that does. It shows the size of the forces that oppose and the forces that favour the scenario. Multiplication of power and desire was chosen to create clear differences. In case of multiplication, an actor with zero desire power will not use any force, whereas that is the case with, for instance adding up. The outcome of these tables will be discussed in the next paragraph.

Current state

Actors Desire (range -5 to 5) Power (from 1 to 5) Desire * Power

Bulgarian Government -5 5 -25 Developers (Yulen) -4 4 -16 Bansko Government -5 3 -15 ENGOs 4 2 8 Unemployed Locals -5 2 -10 EU/Natura 2000 2 5 10 Employed Locals -1 3 -3 Pirin Ecosystem 5 1 5 Winter Tourism -1 1 -1 Ecotourism 1 1 1 Unesco 3 3 9 Probability Negative -70 Positive 33 Sum -37 Difference 103

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17 In Table 1, it is visible that the Yulen and both the Bansko and Bulgarian Government strongly oppose. Also the unemployed locals need a job and will oppose strongly against this scenario. On the other hand, the Pirin ecosystem would be highly in favor of this scenario, as well as the ENGOs.

Full Expansion

Actors Desire (range -5 to

5) Power (1-5) Desire * Power

Bulgarian Government 4 5 20 Developers (Yulen) 5 5 25 Bansko Government 5 3 15 ENGOs -5 2 -10 Unemployed Locals 5 2 10 EU/Natura 2000 -3 5 -15 Employed Locals 2 3 6 Pirin Ecosystem -5 1 -5 Winter Tourism 4 1 4 Ecotourism -5 1 -5 Unesco -5 3 -15 Probability Positive 80 Negative -50 Sum 30 Difference 130

Table 2 - Full expansion desirability and power valuation

As also seen in the current conflict, the full expansion scenario (Table 2) is in high favor of both the governments, Yulen and the unemployed locals. It also has a strong opposition. The ENGOs, the ecosystem, ecotourism and UNESCO all strongly oppose.

Ecotourism

Actors Desire (range -5 to 5) Power ( range 1-5) Desire * Power

Bulgarian

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18 Developers (Yulen) -4 3 -12 Bansko Government -4 3 -12 ENGOs 5 2 10 Unemployed Locals 2 2 4 EU/Natura 2000 4 5 20 Employed Locals 1 3 3 Pirin Ecosystem -1 1 -1 Winter Tourism -1 1 -1 Ecotourism 5 1 5 Unesco 3 3 9 Probability Negative -41 Positive 51 Sum 10 Difference 92

Table 3 - Ecotourism desirability and power valuation Exploitation of ecotourism (Table 3) still has the Bulgarian and Bansko government as well as the developers against it. But the locals are in favor of this scenario. Also, the EU/Nature 2000 prefers this scenario, which makes a difference, concerning their power. Of course, ecotourism is highly in favor of this plan.

Cooperative Expansion

Actors Desire (range -5

to 5) Power (1-5) Desire * Power

Bulgarian Government 1 5 5 Developers (Yulen) 3 3 9 Bansko Government 2 3 6 ENGOs -1 3 -3 Unemployed Locals 4 2 8 EU/Natura 2000 2 5 10 Employed Locals 1 3 3

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19 Pirin Ecosystem -3 1 -3 Winter Tourism 3 1 3 Ecotourism -3 1 -3 Unesco -3 3 -9 Probability Positive 54 Negative -18 Sum Sum 36 Difference Difference 72

Table 4 - Cooperation desirability and power valuation

The first remarkable thing in Table 4 is the lack of strong opposition against this scenario. There are no negative desires under -3. On the other hand, only the unemployed locals strongly prefer this scenario.

3.4 Outcomes table

For every scenario a sum and difference are given. The sum is the sum of the desire*power column and shows how favorable the scenario is based on all the actors. A negative number shows that the actors strongly oppose this scenario. The scenario with the largest sum is the most desirable based on all the actors, in this case the cooperative expansion. There is only one scenario that has a negative outcome for the sum, the current state. This means the current state scenario is not likely to happen, because the majority of actors is against this scenario. The cooperative expansion scenario has the largest sum, this means it is the scenario that is most likely to occur, given number of programs that match this scenario. The other two scenarios, ecotourism and full expansion both have positive outcomes, however these are less than the sum of the cooperative expansion.

The difference between the sum of the negative outcomes and the sum of the positive outcomes shows the polarization. If the difference is high it means that the actors are polarized. If the difference is smaller it means that the actors are closer together and that there is less conflict. The full expansion scenario has the highest difference and the cooperative expansion the lowest.

Based on the sum and difference the cooperative scenario is most likely to happen. However it seems that the full expansion scenario is actually happening. This can be explained due to the driving forces. Every actor is a driving force and that force is characterized by the outcome of the desire*power table. In the table below the driving forces of both the cooperative and full expansions are compared. In red are given the three largest driving forces for both the scenarios. As seen in the table the three largest driving forces for the full expansion scenario are more than double the size of the three largest of the cooperative expansion.

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20

Actors Desire * Power Full expansion Desire * Power Cooperative Bulgarian Government 20 5 Developers (Yulen) 25 9 Bansko Government 15 6 ENGOs -10 -3 Unemployed Locals 10 8 EU/Natura 2000 -15 10 Employed Locals 6 3 Pirin Ecosystem -5 -3 Winter Tourism 4 3 Ecotourism -5 -3 Unesco -15 -9

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21

4 Conclusion

In this paper the Actor Network Theory is used as an overlapping framework in order to find fitting governance to resolve the conflict in the Pirin area. All the actors and their programs (and anti-programs) are identified and their interactions are visualized and described. In general the Pirin ecosystem, UNESCO, the ENGOs, eco-tourism, and Natura 2000 are favouring preservation of the Pirin Park ecosystem and oppose expansion of the ski region. In contrast, the Bulgarian Government, the Bansko Government, developers, unemployed and employed locals and winter tourism are opposing the preservation and favour the expansion of the winter touristic sector. Additionally, whereas within the two opposing groups there are many internal connections, almost no interactions occur between the two opposing groups. With this information the power and desire were quantified in tables for four different scenarios; current state, full expansion, cooperative expansion and ecotourism. In order to find out what the force of every actor was to oppose or promote a certain scenario, desire and power were multiplied. This has led to the following results.

Firstly, in the current state scenario there is a strong opposing power to maintain this state. The sum of power * desire is by far the lowest, which means that it not likely that the current state can be hold. Also the conflict is the second largest, which shows that the actors are polarized. Secondly, in the

full expansion scenario there is the largest conflict, because the actors are the most polarized. However,

the sum is second highest and, with a few really strong forces, the likeliness for this scenario is very high. Thirdly, in the ecotourism scenario the actors are less polarized then the first two scenarios, however the sum is the second lowest. This indicates that the scenario is not likely to occur. Finally, the last scenario is

cooperative expansion, which remarkably has the highest sum and the lowest difference. This means that

in general the forces in favour of cooperative expansions are the strongest, and the polarization is the lowest. However, as the polarization in this scenario is the lowest, the forces are significantly weaker than in the full expansion scenario. In the full expansion scenario a few actors with desire * power values higher than 15 exist, whereas in the cooperative expansion scenario no actor reaches this number. Therefore, it is more likely that the full expansion scenario will happen, even though the sum of the forces in the

cooperative expansion scenario is larger.

Our results show what is practically occurring in the region at the moment. The current state cannot be hold because many forces favour change. Today the expansion of the ski region is happening; illegally more and more ski slopes are built into the Pirin National Park (Dountchev, 2013). The expectation is that full exploitation of ski slopes will occur, although in general most actors would prefer cooperative expansion. However, since no major forces are pushing towards cooperative expansion, the forces who do favour full expansion of ski slopes are stronger. The conflict in this full expansion scenario is the highest of the four scenarios and that is also reflected in reality, as UNESCO and the Bulgarian government are having a prestigious conflict. The cooperative expansion scenario is most desirable and has the least conflict. However, due to lack of strong forces in favour of this scenario, it is not likely to take place. Instead, the strong forces of full expansion will have the upper hand.

In conclusion, as the cooperative expansion scenario appears to be the most beneficial because of its relatively low conflict, the type of governance necessary to resolve this conflict is one that tries to steer towards similar results as this scenario, i.e. having the least conflict between different actors. A type of governance has to be executed, that knows that it has the possibility to change the values for desire and

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22 power of actors. For instance, providing information about ecological effects of the creation of ski slopes to local livelihoods can significantly change its opinion regarding a full expansion scenario. In this way, governance can alter, and preferably, decrease the amount of conflict within a likely scenario. The method of quantifying power of actors and their desirability for certain scenarios can help governance to visualize the conflict and consequently come to a proper solution, and this method is therefore recommended.

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5 Discussion

Because of the high complexity some assumptions had to be made. In this discussion we will both describes the gaps of knowledge and give a stimulus for further research.

Where the data of power and desire is grounded with literature study in the actor description and interaction paragraphs. The scale (1-5) of this power is an assumption. It might be that the scale should be logarithmic. This is a gap in the knowledge of this paper.

Another problem in our research was the available literature from the Bulgarian and Bansko government side. Where the literature of the ENGOs and the international actors where all available in English, both the governments had most of their literature in Bulgarian. With no translator available in our team, it was not possible to get information from these articles.

The last problem we had in our research where the locals. As an actor they are much divided in their programs. We tried to divide the locals in clear groups but a good division was not found. This made the locals a difficult actor to put in our framework.

Because the approach of this study depends on arbitrary valuation of power and desire of actors, we do not recommend to directly use these findings. We ask, however, for further research on both the method and the data. With better data and a more perfected method, the results and recommendations derived from such a research could be very helpful in order to find the most favourable and most likely scenario. Therefore the research needs to be forwarded to all the different actors. This may influence both the power and desire of the actors. An actor may see that they have more power than thought. For example, locals might see they can influence governance by publishing an article or by protesting. Also, desires may change if there is more understanding of and for all the different programs and anti-programs. This may lead to bigger desire for a more compromising scenario.

Finally, the method used in this paper can be copied to other cases. It is a way to bring actors together and make a network transparent.

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24

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26

Appendix A

The factor that plays a crucial role in the resilience of an ecosystem is biodiversity. More precisely, the diversity of functional groups, the diversity of species and populations, and the diversity of species in functional groups determine the resilience and moreover the services that an ecosystem provides. Folke

et al. (2004) distinguish two types of diversity that are important in an ecosystem. Firstly, the

functional-group diversity refers to the diversity in functional-groups that for example decompose, generate soils, modify water flows or fix nitrogen. A high diversity in functional groups, results logically in a higher resilience for disturbances. Secondly, in an ecosystem a high functional-response diversity is desirable, which implies that different species within a functional group respond differently to environmental change. This is beneficial in the light that, when a disturbance is induced in an ecosystem, not a total functional group can be lost, but some species will compensate for the lower numbers or extinction of other species (Folke

et al, 2004).

The anti-program of the ecosystem will here be directly related to the plans of expansion of ski slopes in the area. Firstly, the very local effects of ski slope preparation and maintenance are described in the study of Rixen et al. (2003). They describe in their study that the main direct impacts of ski slope preparation are related to the compaction of snow cover, resulting in a decreased gas permeability and an increased thermal conductivity. Consequently, plants that grow under his compacted snow cover, can suffer more from frost damage and oxygen deficiency. Additionally, the compacted snow cover can result in a delay in development of the plant, and an increase in infection rate by fungi or pathogens.

Another major impact of the maintenance of ski slopes, is the ground levelling, mostly done during summer, to eliminate rocks and create smooth slopes. The removal of these rocks can result in a transformation of the vegetation, a decrease in productivity and a soil that is more likely to erode. Moreover, during the skiing season, on places where the snow layer is thin, it is plausible that plants are damaged by machines (e.g. snowmobiles) and sharp edges of skies (Rixen et al, 2003).

Moreover, concerning the maintenance of ski slopes, Rixen et al. (2003) come with another interesting conclusion. Because of the low altitude of Bansko, at 950m above sea level, artificial snow is being used when temperature drops below zero and snow conditions are inadequate, to provide a long winter sports season and generate as much income as possible. Rixen et al. (2003) describe that there are several ecological effects of artificial snow that are mitigated. For example, by using artificial snow, soil frost is decreased and there is an increase in the mechanical protection of the plants underneath the snow, for e.g. snow-grooming vehicles. However, the artificial snow appears to induce other negative effects on the environment, by altering the input of water and ions in the ecosystem. The impacts of these snow additives are not yet clearly defined, because plants appear to react inconsistently to the additives. Hence, further long-term studies of these snow additives are therefore necessary (Rixen et al, 2003).

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27 Secondly, another crucial effect of the creation of new ski slopes in the Pirin National Park that works on a slightly larger scale, is that strips of what is originally forest area are being cut and subject to ski slope creation. This results in habitat fragmentation of the ecosystem. Habitat fragmentation implies that there is a loss of habitat, a decrease in patch size and an increase in distance between the patches (Andrén, 1994). In landscapes with more than 30% of suitable habitat, the loss of habitat is primarily the biggest threat to the ecosystem. In these areas, the population dynamics and the abundance and distribution of certain species can best be described by the random sample hypothesis (Andrén, 1994). This hypothesis states that the patches can be considered as random sample of the source areas, and in this way the distribution of species can be determined. Additionally, Andrén (1994) describes that in areas with relatively large patches that are close to each other and thus a high proportion of suitable habitat, the configuration of the patches is less important.

When an ecosystem becomes more fragmented, such that only 10-30% of the original habitat is left, the decrease in patch size and isolation will have relatively larger effects. In this way, species cannot, or can hardly migrate to other patches within the ecosystem, resulting in a strong negative effect on the number of species in the area. Of course, this very much depends on the mobility of species; one can imagine that a bird species can migrate more easily, compared to a mammal (which is very relevant for the Pirin National Park, as it recognized as an Important Bird Area (Nicolov, 2006). Additionally, when habitat loss is this large, the configuration of the patches does become increasingly important (Andrén, 1994). When an ecosystem becomes fragmented, not only habitat loss and configuration of the patches play a role. Additionally, the patches are exposed to ecological changes associated with the increase of edges. There can be a wide variety of edge effects, such as changes in the microclimate and light regimes that alter seedling germination and survival, as well as an increase in tree mortality because of wind-shear forces. Edge effects are become more important in smaller and irregular shaped habitat fragments (Laurence, 1991). Although it is commonly accepted that edge effects are deleterious for forest fragments by changing its biotic and abiotic conditions, there is not much scientific consensus on how to measure these effects and how deleterious they are (Muncia, 1995). Although edge effects have been measured in a large variety of ecosystems, scientists have still not been able to draw clear-cut general patterns. In conclusion, the programme of the Pirin National Park ecosystem can be characterized by a high resilience, through high biodiversity. Subsequently, the anti-program of the ecosystem yields I) the local effects of ski slope creation and maintenance (snow compaction, ground levelling, and the usage of artificial snow) , ii) habitat fragmentation that is the consequent of ski slope creation and finally iii) the edge effects that are related to habitat fragmentation.

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Appendix B

So it is desirable to be at the point where the internal balance and the external balance cross each other. There are several ways to achieve that. First by adapting the Real Exchange Rate, however as Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007 their lev is set to the euro and therefor adjusting the exchange rate is not possible. Another factor is to change the domestic demand, an increase in domestic demand could get Bulgaria at the internal balance, however they still would not be able to obtain external balance. These are both endogenous factors and as mentioned above with just these 2 factors it is not possible to achieve internal and external balance. So an exogenous factor is required. To obtain internal and external balance the lines of those balances have to move. This can be done by increasing export, decreasing import, increasing economic activity or changing the money stock. As tourism is argued to be an export product and as increasing the tourism sector would lead to increasing economic activity both the internal and external balance lines could move. The internal balance would shift to the left as there is more economic activity and the external balance would shift more to the right as the export increases (Pillbeam, 2006).

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Appendix C

In the Pirin case, there are a lot of institutions involved. These institutions are all highly political. The issue also are very political and there are a lot of reputations at stake. Also, there is a lot of media attention for the Pirin case. This all leads to the conclusion that the Pirin case has an obliged political setting. Noordegraaf states that a political setting leads to political management.

Political management deals with two kinds of politics: Political actors and ‘the political’ (conflict between ideological values). Political management focusses on highly polarized issues in heavily

polarized settings with a lot of attention of politicians and the media. The issues with political management have the following characteristics; they have a high political character (politicians interfere), they are untamed and hazardous (reputations are at stake) and the issues are incidental (sometimes strongly present, sometimes only in the background). Political management has three institutions: Politics (for example a minister or the parliament), controversial institutions (not political but involved, for example government officials) and the media. Political managers use three kinds of instruments; agenda management (creating political awareness for issues), risk management (focusing to control and reduce political issues) and symbolic management (pretending to offer a solutions, because the problem is not manageable). (Noordegraaf, 2008, pp. 244-266)

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30

Appendix D

The European Commission’s July 2012 progress report found that acquittal rates were

disproportionately high in corruption cases against senior government officials, and that the number of cases in the courts declined sharply in 2011 after increases in 2009 and 2010. The director of a new commission for the identification and seizure of criminal assets resigned in early 2012, citing insufficient political support. A new law passed in May allowed assets to be seized through the civil courts rather than requiring a criminal conviction, though the EU report warned that further improvements were needed for the commission to be effective. The informal, untaxed “shadow economy” accounts for an estimated one-third of Bulgaria’s gross domestic product, and the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy estimated in June 2012 that an average of 150,000 bribes were paid each month in 2011. Bulgaria was ranked 75 out of 176 countries surveyed in Transparency International’s 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index. (Freedom in the World, 2013)

A study of Bryan W. Husted shows that corruption is significantly correlated to Gross National Product (GDP) per capita, power distance (the dependence of subordinates to their superiors), masculinity and uncertainty avoidance (“the extent to members of a culture feel threatened by uncertainty or unknown situations. A country with high power distance, masculinity and uncertainty avoidance will most likely have more corruption. (Husted, Bryan W; Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios, 1999) The Bulgarian culture has in comparison to West-European standards an average high masculinity. But in comparison to other east European countries, the Bulgarians are not that masculine. (Special Eurobarometer, 2005) Also, in comparison with the rest of Europe, the GDP per capita is low. (International Monetary Fund, 2010) This shows Bulgaria has the potential to be have a relatively (to European countries) high corruption rate.