Graduate School of Social Sciences MSc Thesis Political Science: Political Economy
Research Project: Political Economy of Energy
CHALLENGES TO ENERGY TRANSITION POLICIES IN TURKEY: DEVELOPMENT OF WIND AND SOLAR POWER SECTORS
FROM 2002 TO 2018
Begüm Taşçıoğlu 12190004 21.06.2019
Supervisor: Dr. Mehdi Parvizi Amineh Second reader: Dr. Robin Pistorius
Abstract
This thesis provides a study on Turkish energy transition process from 2002 to 2018, with a focus on the development of wind and solar power sectors. As a developing country, Turkey has a growing population and an economy that is challenged by its limited energy resources and global political ambitions. Dependency on fossil-fuel imports to sustain Turkish economic development is a temporary solution, which puts a burden on the available domestic resources. The quest for energy transition has started in order to relieve the economy from energy-imports and to support the development of renewable energy sector. With concepts from energy and transition studies this thesis answers the research question: What are the challenges to the development of wind and solar power sectors that impede energy transition in Turkey? The study has found that (1) dominance of fossil-fuels in the Turkish energy regime has not prevented the development of the wind and solar power sectors, (2) inconsistent energy policies provide resilience to Turkish fossil-fuel companies against energy transition, and (3) incentivizing the wind and solar power sectors accelerated energy transition in Turkey. It is found that incomprehensiveness of transition policies and resistance from key energy sector actors challenge the success of energy transition.
Keywords: Turkey, Energy transition, Energy policy, Renewable energy, Wind power,
Table of Contents
Abstract ... 3
Acknowledgements ... 7
Maps ... 9
List of Abbreviations ... 11
List of Tables, Figures and Maps ... 13
CHAPTER 1: RESEARCH DESIGN ... 15
1. Introduction ... 15
2. Literature review ... 17
2.1. Energy transition around the globe ... 17
2.2. Energy and renewables in Turkey ... 18
3. Theory, concepts and operationalization ... 22
3.1. The Resource Scarcity Model ... 22
3.2. The Multi-Level Perspective... 24
3.3. The Transition Management Theory ... 25
4. Brief argumentation and hypotheses ... 27
5. Data and methods... 28
6. The organization of the thesis ... 29
CHAPTER 2: ENERGY SITUATION IN TURKEY... 31
1. Introduction ... 31
2. An overview of the Turkish economy ... 32
3. Domestic energy resources and production ... 33
4. Energy consumption in Turkey ... 38
5. Energy trade and scarcity ... 42
5.1. Energy trade ... 42
5.2. Energy scarcity ... 43
6. Turkish energy strategy and renewables ... 45
6.1. Fossil-fuels ... 46
6.2. Nuclear ... 47
6.3. Renewables ... 48
7. Conclusion ... 48
CHAPTER 3: WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES IN PRACTICE ... 51
1. Introduction ... 51
2. Variable renewable energy resources... 52
3.1. Regulatory policies ...56
3.2. Fiscal incentives...61
3.3. Financial tools ...62
4. Developments in renewable energy projects ... 65
5. Conclusion ... 68
CHAPTER 4: WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY INDUSTRY STRUCTURE... 71
1. Introduction ... 71
2. Roles and interests of key actors... 72
2.1. Public sector actors ...72
2.2. Private sector actors ...74
2.3. The general public ...77
3. Relationship between key actors ... 79
3.1. Resistance to transition ...84
4. Conclusion ... 85
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION... 87
BIBLIOGRAPHY... 93
APPENDIX 1: Development indicators (2002-2017) ... 101
APPENDIX 2: YEKDEM Local Content Price List ... 103
Acknowledgements
This thesis is a product of months of reading, learning and writing about a topic I have been interested in for a long time. I would like to first thank my supervisor Dr. Mehdi Amineh for his persistent support and constructive feedback during this strenuous process. Even though sometimes I had difficulty meeting his academic expectations, he has made sure that my research would produce this thesis. Secondly, I would like to thank my second reader Dr. Robin Pistorius for taking the time to review my work.
I am grateful for the discussions I had with my research project group and for their companionship during these past months.
Lastly, I would like to thank my family and friends here and at home, for their genuine support and motivation throughout this process.
Maps
List of Abbreviations
AKP Justice and Development Party CO2 Carbon dioxide
CSP Concentrated Solar Power
EBRD European Bank of Reconstruction and Development EIB European Investment Bank
EMRA Energy Market Regulatory Authority
ENAR Energy Industry Research and Development Supporting Mechanism EPIAS Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST)
EU European Union
IEA International Energy Agency
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency GUNDER International Solar Energy Community-Turkey GWh Gigawatt hours
IPARD Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance Rural Development Programme Ktoe Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
MENR Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
Midseff Turkish Mid-size Sustainable Energy Financing Facility MLP Multi-level Perspective
MW Megawatt
PPI Private Participation in Infrastructure database
PV Photovoltaics
SOE State-owned enterprise SPP Solar Power Plant
TEIAS Turkish Electricity Transmission Company
TL Turkish Lira
TMMOB Chamber of Mechanical Engineers TMT Transition Management Theory TSI Turkish Statistical Institute
TSKB Turkish Industrial Development Bank
TUBITAK Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey TUREB Turkish Wind Energy Association
UN United Nations
YEGM General Directorate of Renewable Energy YEK Renewable energy regulation
YEKA Renewable Energy Resource Area
YEKDEM Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism VRE Variable Renewable Energy
List of Tables, Figures and Maps
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Electricity Generation and Shares by Energy Resources (2002-2017) Table 2.2 Renewable energy installed capacity April 2019
Table 2.3 Net electricity consumption by sectors (2002-2017) Table 2.4 Total energy balance (2002-2017)
Table 3.1 Fixed purchasing price guarantees for renewable energy
Table 3.2 Cost per unit of YEKDEM electricity between 2018 and 2019 in TL/MWh
List of figures
Figure 1.1 A dynamic multi-level perspective on technological transitions Figure 2.1 Total primary energy production in ktoe (2002-2017)
Figure 2.2 Primary energy consumption in mtoe (2002-2017)
Figure 2.3 Total final energy consumption by source in ktoe (1990-2016) Figure 2.4 Electricity consumption per capita in MWh/capita (1990-2016)
List of maps
CHAPTER 1: RESEARCH DESIGN
1. Introduction
This research aims to identify the challenges to Turkey’s energy transition process, particularly in the development of wind and solar power sectors from 2002 to 2018. Its objective is to understand the energy situation in the country with regards to its indigenous energy resources and energy demands, and the efficiency of the policy framework concerning deployment of these renewable energy resources to provide for it, while preventing negative political, economic and environmental consequences of its current energy status. The research also analyzes the Turkish energy market structure and the relationship between its public and private actors to reveal the supportive and impeding links to the transition of the energy sector. Success of Turkey’s transition process is important to study as a paradigm of political economy of energy transition, because it is a developing country with an industrialization-related growing energy demand, insufficient domestic energy resources, and it is located in a geopolitically strategic region for current global energy politics.
The main research objective of this thesis is to study the process of Turkey’s energy transition from a fossil-fuel based energy regime into renewables between the years 2002 and 2018, in order to identify the political and economic challenges to the development of wind and solar power sectors. The timeframe from 2002 to 2018 is chosen to correspond to the terms of the still-ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which shall help to understand the position of the party on the deployment of renewables to overcome Turkey’s energy challenges, prevent any potential policy inconsistency that might exist between the AKP and previous governments and because wind and solar energy production is a recent phenomenon in Turkish energy industry, as it is discussed in chapter 2.
In order to investigate Turkey’s challenges in employing renewable energy resources extensively, this research looks into three topics of interest about Turkey’s energy industry and its transition process. First, past and current energy situation with relation to available domestic resources, energy trade, and energy-intense sectors are studied. Turkey’s overall energy strategy and targets with regards to sustainability and energy security are discussed in order to look for the significance of renewable energy resources for its future. Secondly, an analysis of the development of Turkey’s wind and solar power sectors is carried out to establish the significance of these resources to the economy, through a policy analysis focused on wind and solar energy industries. Lastly, an
investigation into the structure of the wind and solar energy industry is made to reveal the power relationship between its key incumbent actors. The risks and impediments to Turkey’s energy transition process are revealed through these analyses on its energy situation, renewables policy and industry structure.
This research contributes to debates on energy studies, particularly about energy transition and socio-technical transitions, which look into the process of new technological developments replacing the existing energy structure, energy-related political relations and how new sustainable energy technologies spread from labs to landscapes. It analyzes Turkey’s current energy profile with respect to energy import-dependence in the global neoliberal economy. Energy transition as a resolution to import-dependency create opportunities for states to become energy-independent, and even energy-exporters. Therefore, a change in the global political and economic landscape following an eventual energy transition is considered transformative as existing state-market relations are likely to be affected by the new dynamics of the energy regime. Therefore, analyzing Turkey’s process in overcoming the circumstances of its energy situation through wind and solar energy production is possibly crucial for energy studies to discern the energy transition process of other developing countries.
Energy transition is a complex multi-level, multi-actor process that brings politics, economy, business, scientific and civil society together. It defies existing established energy systems and structures with its prospects regarding innovation and efficiency. Facing challenges from multiple sides until a potential full transition, technology development, deployment and use of wind and solar energy require considerable backing from their proponents. Therefore, identification of these challenges is of primary concern, in order to accurately understand, communicate and implement energy transition policies. The main research question for this thesis addresses this concern for Turkey, while the following sub-questions investigate the specific elements of the transition process in Turkey:
What are the challenges to the development of wind and solar power sectors that impede energy transition in Turkey?
- What is the current energy situation in Turkey? What is the impact of this situation on the Turkish economy?
- What are the political and economic tools used by the state to incentivize developments in wind and solar energy sectors? What are the consequent developments in these sectors?
- What are the roles of the key actors in wind and solar power sectors? How do these roles impact realization of energy transition in the Turkish energy regime?
2. Literature review
2.1. Energy transition around the globe
Conventional fossil-based energy resources such as coal, oil and natural gas are challenged by the political, economic and environmental risks that surround their widespread consumption around the world. Their concentrated availability in conflicted regions of the world, increases the risks of dependency on these energy sources and improving energy technologies offer more efficient solutions to provide power to growing global economies. Caineng et al. (2016) discuss that global energy trends indicate consumption of these fossil-fuel resources will be decreasing in the future as a consequence of these risks, and inevitably, energy from renewable resources will become significant in the global energy regime. They argue that “strong development of new energy technologies will promote the coming of a ‘new energy era’, and ‘new energy revolution’ may come earlier than expected,” where coal, oil, gas and renewables would have equal shares in global energy consumption and advanced battery technologies would threaten resilience of continuing fossil-fuel consumption.
Energy transition has become a very heated topic of conversation in the recent decade, as supporting technologies such as energy storage, electric cars etc. advanced enough to move into real markets. The entrance of these ‘niche innovations’ into the existing energy regimes accelerates the transition process, through requiring higher electrical energy production and consumption. Sovacool (2016) looks into the time scale of the energy transition processes around the world and in historical examples and how the tendency of ‘path dependency’ and ‘lock-in’ in existing energy systems prevent abate adoption of renewables and related disruptive technologies. Although, despite this abatement of existing systems resistance, Renewables 2018 Global Status Report show that the global renewable energy capacity had its largest yearly increase in 2017, covering over a quarter of global electricity supplies (REN21, 2018). Total wind and solar shares reached 7.5% of electricity production globally, which meant that energy production from
renewable resources more than doubled in a decade without even compelling a substantial systems change.
Renewable energy resources such as wind and solar are intermittent resources, where power generation depends on the existence of wind, sunshine or solar radiation, unlike uninterrupted supplies of hydrocarbon resources. Nalan et al. (2009) argue that this is an impediment to the prevalent adoption of renewable energy, as utilities companies are reluctant to risk supply imbalances that might be caused by daily weather conditions. But the Renewables 2018 Global Status Report show that countries with determined renewable energy deployment targets (e.g. Denmark, Uruguay, Germany) overcome these power imbalance risks through increased investments in energy storage, in addition to improving their energy regulations, market designs, and energy transmission infrastructure to increase flexibility.
Developments in the renewable energy technologies that led to higher efficiency and better outcomes have also led to international organizations and supranational organizations to adopt policies to promote and support deployment of renewables in their member states. For example, European Union (EU) has several policies, targets and internal mechanisms to increase total share of renewable energy up to 30% until 2030, and projects to promote their adoption in member- and candidate-states such as Turkey (European Commission, 2019). The Bringing Europe and Third Countries Closer Together Through Renewable Energies (BETTER) Project aims at creating a renewable energy cooperation mechanism between the EU and Turkey through assessment of case studies, stakeholder involvement and policy and strategy evaluations. Unlike dependency-based fossil-fuel markets, as “green energy market,” the project targets creation of a possible “integrated and interconnected energy market” between the EU and Turkey, which would become mutually beneficial through establishing an ‘energy union’ (European Commission, 2014). Similar projects are carried out by various organizations e.g. the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), UN Climate Change (UNCC), the World Bank, in order to increase cooperation and technology transfer between states and to increase global renewable energy production.
2.2. Energy and renewables in Turkey
Energy transition is a complicated inter-disciplinary study area, right in the nexus of political science, international relations, political economy, energy studies, sustainability
transition studies and socio-technical transitions, in order to understand the change that all the levels of the society go through. Current energy regime is feeding the growth of the global economy, where the market system has been historically highly fossil-fuel dominant. However, concerns over the risks related with unstable energy supplies, security of supplies and consequences of climate change invited technologically innovative alternative renewable energy resources into the mix in the recent decades (Bulut and Muratoglu, 2018, pp. 240).
Turkey’s domestic conventional energy resources are limited to coal reserves, and the country is dependent on substantial amounts of natural gas and oil imports to fully supply its industries and households with necessary energy resources such as electricity and gas (Nalan et al., 2009). Due to its high dependence on energy imports, domestic economy is also heavily affected by any supply disruption or price fluctuation in the global energy markets. Therefore, Kok and Benli (2011) state that, transition to new energy systems fueled with alternative energy resources, domestic renewable energy resources and nuclear energy, and adoption of complementary political and economic policies offer the best option for Turkey to solve its issues with energy scarcity and security. Accelerated developments in the renewables sector, such as higher energy efficient technologies, building of larger integrated wind and solar power plants, decreasing prices of renewable energy becoming competitive with fossil-fuel prices are making it advantageous for the Turkish economy to adapt to these changes rapidly (Benli, 2013, p.33). These renewable energy sources, hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass etc. are much less damaging to the environment compared to fossil-fuels, independent of the impacts of unstable international politics and have less price fluctuations risks, which makes them imperative for Turkey’s energy situation (Bulut and Muratoglu, 2018, pp. 240). Turkey’s potential to produce energy from renewable energy is significant and many scholars agree on that Turkish energy regime should be restructured to welcome greater deployment of renewable energy production domestically, in order to supply a larger share of the country’s total energy consumption (Kaygusuz and Sarı, 2003; Yılmaz and Sever-Mehmetoglu, 2016; Çapık et al., 2012; Başaran et al., 2015).
Turkey’s power market has been controlled and regulated by the state and has been progressively liberalizing to invite further investments and improve market conditions and competitiveness since 2001. Despite the market liberalization reforms made in line with EU integration guidelines, state is still a dominant actor in the energy industry, along with
the entrance of private energy companies (Sirin and Ege, 2012, p.4918; European Commission, 2018, p.79). Turkish energy market is highly affected by the policies and activities of state bodies and government politics. Turkish government already has some plans in place through the MENR’s 2015-2019 Strategic Plan, according to which, reducing import dependency is the primary concern for Turkey in order to decrease the trade deficit, while rational use of domestically available resources, resource diversification and increased energy efficiency are also highlighted. While the plan underlines the significance of renewable energy for Turkey’s long-term energy supply situation, it puts equal emphasis on continuing consumption of domestic fossil fuels i.e. coal, and introduction of nuclear power to the energy system to provide sufficient electricity for the growing economy. The strategic plan shows that Turkish policy-makers approach energy policies in order to remove the impediments caused by energy scarcity to the country’s economic growth. Dogan (2016) discusses the economic impact of consumption of fossil-fuels and renewables on the economy and the GDP off Turkey, concluding that energy consumption has ‘unidirectional causality’ with growth, while energy policies regarding resource and efficiency has no impact on it. On the other hand, increased renewable energy production has positive correlation with growth through helping out Turkey’s energy import-dependence, and its domestic production will restructure the existing energy system and create a significant economic sector in the country.
Turkey’s 2018 energy consumption consists of nearly 30% of renewables, of which more than half comes from its domestic hydraulic resources (Yakışan Mutlu, 2019). Wind power constitutes about a quarter of the installed renewable energy capacity, while solar power with a share of 16% is lagging behind despite its high potential (EXIST, 2019). The growth rate of the renewables sector is comparatively slower than Turkey’s energy demand growth, which means that it is still in need of developments to boost the attractiveness of the sector. The current rate of renewables has been reached with previous reforms in the energy industry, including privatization of more than 40% of the entities related with energy production, distribution and transmission (Investor’s Guide, 2018). In order to create a domestic renewable energy market, the government have been promoting investments in the renewables sector through various regulatory, fiscal and financial incentives (Albayrak, 2017; Çapık et al., 2012). The wind and solar power sectors to reach about 12% of total installed capacity took nearly a decade of work, during which Turkey’s total energy demand have risen at about 4-5% yearly, despite its large costs to the domestic
economy (Ministry of energy and natural resources, 2018). This shows Turkey’s need for a rapid energy transition, if it is ever going to supply its energy consumption through renewable energy resources instead of fossil-fuels.
Renewable energy production in Turkey, has grown significantly since 2010, after the introduction of necessary legal framework and financial incentives by the government in the previous years. Requirement for a production license has been waived as part of renewable energy strategy, which resulted in a significant capacity of wind and solar energy production. Along with these small-medium scale companies, some conventional energy companies in the industry also adopted renewables, establishing large-scale renewable energy parks, constituting about half of domestic wind and solar power generation in Turkey. Companies such as Polat Energy, Demirer Energy, Güriş, Borusan EnBW Energy, Akfen Renewable Energy, EnerjiSA, Alarko Energy Group are leading business actors in the wind and solar power sectors in Turkey (Turkish Wind Energy Association; Solar Energy Investors Association). Expansion of companies in the renewables sector to energy resource scarce regions are identified as important steps to develop a decentralized energy regime that provides sustainable energy everywhere in Turkey, while strengthening Turkish economy both in renewable energy production and in related subsidiary industries. Sirin and Ege (2012) discuss Turkey’s options to develop a successful renewables policy that will have long-term effects on creating a sustainable energy system. They set three priorities for a better deployment of renewables in the country: strong political commitment from the government to support development of the renewable energy sector through resource allocation, advocacy groups and agreement with international norms; market creation through increasing the share of electricity consumption from renewables and reducing price risks with lower barriers and more incentives; support of technology development in order to increase efficiency and support domestic production of related renewables technology.
Most of the energy transition studies about Turkey discuss the technical requirements of the transition along with the need for economic incentives to stimulate the renewables sector, because the transition process is still considerably new and slow, and there is still a large room for the development of the sector. This work shall study to identify the political and economic challenges of a more rapid energy transition in Turkey.
3. Theory, concepts and operationalization
This research uses three theoretical frameworks to provide the necessary analytical foundations to answer the main research question and its sub-questions. In analysis of the energy situation in the country, ideas and concepts from the resource scarcity model are used in order to classify Turkey’s position with regards to its energy reserves; in analysis of the renewable energy sector structure and the relationships between its key actors, a combination of multi-level perspective and transition management theory is applied to explain various aspects of Turkey’s political economic system in the transition process.
3.1. The Resource Scarcity Model
Turkey’s current energy situation is faced with multiple challenges that affect its economic growth and investment environment. The high dependence on fossil fuel imports for energy generation and industrial raw materials overwhelms the economy with increasing resource demand in the face of insufficient indigenous resources. Turkey’s geopolitical position between the Europe and the Middle East has resulted in an ever-growing transit pipeline network over the country, which has been supplying Turkey with natural gas and oil imports. But it also has deepened the dependence on exporter-states and created an energy security issue. Therefore, it is important to discern the leading causes of Turkey’s energy scarcity, how energy transition away from hydrocarbons to renewables is a feasible solution to diversify Turkish energy mix, and what stands in the way of achieving a successful energy transition.
To understand Turkey’s current energy situation and its energy security issues, resource scarcity model (RSM) is a viable analytical framework. The model states that energy scarcity happens in the face of increasing population growth in developing countries, higher per capita income in consumer countries and development of energy-intense technologies, According to the model, a country might have one of the three forms of resource scarcity: demand-induced, supply-induced and structural (Amineh and Guang, 2017; Amineh & Houweling, 2007).
Demand-induced scarcity is about the issues related with the increasing energy demand per capita. Global fossil-fuel consumption is increasing on a higher rate than global population growth, which means that an average person needs to consume more resources every day. But in the face of limited resources, availability of energy per person is set to decrease, creating demand-induced energy scarcity. This imbalance between demand and
availability is triggered by the energy consumer population growth, the rising economic wealth of consumers, and energy-intense technological developments. Supply-induced scarcity is caused by the unavailability of the limited energy resources. It is closely linked with the supply-demand relationship in the oil and natural gas industry: Unexpected increases of energy demand cause shortages, because available supplies are insufficient to cover the full demand, despite existing reserves of natural gas and oil. Since these fossil-fuel reserves are not infinite, suppliers consider higher costs of future energy shortages and limit energy production accordingly. Structural scarcity happens with the intentional decisions of supplier states. It is a form of supply-induced scarcity where availability of energy supplies is used to control the market for political reasons, independent of the changes in energy demand. The structure of the existing energy system is quite vulnerable to structural scarcity, because fossil-fuel supplier states are mostly politically unstable, whereas consumers support mostly democratic liberal ideals.
The resource scarcity model is useful to study the energy situation of Turkey, which is high fossil-fuel dependent country. The model helps to understand Turkey’s increasing energy dependence vis-à-vis its increasing energy demand and the political and economic implications of imported energy supplies on the country and its economic growth. On the other hand, Turkey has a high potential of renewable energy production and the resource scarcity situation is reversed in the case of renewables, where supply is -technically- unlimited. The model should help in explaining the quest for energy independence in Turkish energy policy and development of renewables sector.
3.2. The Multi-Level Perspective
Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) is an analytical framework based on evolutionary economics and widely used to study socio-technical transitions. It is founded on the idea that radical innovations are the drivers of economic growth, and in pursuit of economic development, societies will technologically advance their existing resources and tools. As
a dynamic process, economic system will adopt and adapt to technological developments, changing the existing economic, political and social structures along the way.
MLP theory explains the process of technological transition and the changing relationship dynamics between relevant actors in and out of the state-market-society triangle. Figure 1.1 showcases the dynamics of MLP, which studies transitions in three levels of analysis: at the niche innovation level (micro-level), radical technological transitions are developed, trialed and experienced, building knowledge, based on the experience that is protected from market conditions; at the socio-technical regimes level (meso-level), existing technology is used in combination with some of the newly accepted radical technologies (hybrid system), while developments in the infrastructure, markets, policies, culture, and industry happen over time; at the socio-technical landscape level
Figure 1.1 A dynamic multi-level perspective on technological transitions
(macro-level), external factors, determine the broad events and perceptions, which consequently accelerate or decelerate the process of transition to the new technology (Geels, 2002; 2011).
In energy transition studies, circular causality is an important part of the MLP framework, because it is used to study how all the social, political and economic actors, along with changing trends, values and meanings are interconnected in creating new perceptions about renewables and increase their acceptance by the general public. When applied to energy transition, MLP puts the existing energy regime into the center, which is currently the fossil-fuel dominant energy system, while niche innovations, developments in the renewables sector and the socio-technical landscape, e.g. global perceptions, constantly change themselves and influence the regime at the same time (Geels, 2010).
MLP approaches energy transition as an evolutionary change, that includes the changes in the society, markets, politics and technology into the process. The change in the energy regime happens through an accumulation of developments in these separate areas, until the full transition is achieved.
3.3. The Transition Management Theory
The approach of the transition management theory (TMT) into socio-technical transitions is different than MLP, because TMT takes the process of socio-technical transitions as a complex system that requires management in order to achieve the desired outcome that is in line with sustainable development principles.
The theory assumes that the transition is dependent on the progress of its adoption by the institutional structures of the society. Therefore, according to TMT, a society must have at least some basic sustainability-related values and goals put in place by an agency, in order to be able to go through an energy transition successfully, arguing that economic decisions are not naturally made based on moral concerns (Rotmans at al., 2001). These characteristics are identified as adaptive capacity, policy paradigm, powerful actors, institutional and policy entrepreneurs and behavioral change at home (Smith et al., 2005). But also, similar with MLP theory, transition management still acknowledges the need for multi-actor involvement in the transition process. The difference is in their approach to “how”: transition management has designated actors responsible of ensuring existence of necessities, for a swift progress in transition, unlike MLP’s evolutionary and observant approach to transition (Kern and Smith, 2008).
The transition management theory, as a descendent of complexity theory, is useful to study the changing dynamics in the energy politics of the current Turkish government and its energy policies. The change in the political discourse of Turkey is reflected in the latest developments in the renewable energy sector, such as the government’s tender bids for Renewable Energy Resource Areas (YEKA) for wind and solar parks, which would be best analyzed through the lens of the TMT.
The research operationalizes certain concepts from above-mentioned theories in order to study the details and dynamics of policies and processes of renewable energy related developments in Turkey. The main concepts to be used in the research are (1) energy scarcity, (2) state-market relationship, (3) energy supply security, (4) energy regimes and (5) regime resistance.
The concept of energy scarcity lies on the basis of energy studies about Turkey, and it will be operationalized through the energy scarcity model of Amineh and Huaweling (2007), which has three indicators of scarcity: demand-induced, supply-induced and structural. Turkey’s energy situation vis-à-vis these indicators should determine its energy scarcity model and identify the main direction of energy policies towards overcoming this issue, as its current and future energy situation plays the most significant role.
Operationalization of energy supply security is essential to study Turkey’s motivation towards energy transition. It is an energy import dependent country, where about 70% of the energy consumed is fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, and they are mostly imported from resource rich countries such as Russia and Iran. Therefore, security of supplies is a great concern for the resilience of Turkish politics, as entire economy and economic growth, along with maintenance of the quality of life of households, depend on these imported energy resources. Energy imports have a very large impact on the country’s foreign debt as well, especially at times of economic fluctuation and depreciation of Turkish Lira. The impact of resource scarcity shows up in the analysis of the supply security concept, with questions over continuity and cost of supplies.
The state-market relationship concept is very significant to the analysis of Turkey’s energy politics, because until 2000s, energy was considered among strategic political industries and it was managed and regulated by the state. Liberalization of energy markets and inclusion of private sector into the energy production, distribution transmission processes started in early 2000s and are still ongoing. For example, unlike production and
distribution of power services, energy transmission is conducted only by the state-owned Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEIAS). Distribution of work among different sectors of the economy is important to increase the efficiency of the process and also to study the dynamics between these different actors with relation to multi-level perspective and transition management theories (Geels, 2011; (Kern and Smith, 2008).
The next concept to operationalize is energy regimes, which F.W. Geels (2002) defines as existing energy systems that dominate the global economy, in his attempt to apply multi-level perspective theory to the transitions between energy systems. For example, in the industrial era coal became the energy regime initially, but now natural gas and oil play a far greater role than coal does in the world. Energy regimes evolve and change based on the developments in society, economy, technology etc. that affects the way of living. According to literature and studies on energy transition, consumption of renewable energy resources will become the dominant energy regime for the future with the electrification of other systems such as transportation networks. Therefore, energy transition from fossil-fuels to renewables is called an energy regime change, that is expected to impact much more than the energy industry.
Regime resistance of the MLP framework indicates that the potential conflicting interests of key actors of the transition and the mutually beneficial relationships between these actors may impact the process of transition through resistance and resilience to change. MLP states that transition is evolutionary because actors protect their interests in the face of change, and they will submit to it once necessary conditions emerge. However, if transition actors have vested interests in the existing energy regime, such as a relationship between a state body and a company, then there might be regime resistance to transition, where e.g. the state body doesn’t fulfill its duties.
Application of the three above-mentioned theoretical frameworks and operationalizations of the related concepts in the analysis of this research is elemental to understand the inner dynamics of Turkey’s energy transition process.
4. Brief argumentation and hypotheses
Turkey is a highly energy import dependent country, with limited and low-quality coal and nearly no natural gas and oil reserves. On the other hand, its geographical position creates high potential for energy generation from renewables especially from wind and the sun. However, the process for technological transition of the energy industry through
widespread deployment of wind and solar energy would require significant systems change. With an almost steadily growing economy in the last two decades, ironically, Turkey’s ambitions are also limited by its high fossil-fuel consuming industrial structure. The growing significance of energy transition for Turkey has resulted in the adoption of policies for market development of renewables and the necessary infrastructure, whose success depends on their implementation by the key actors of energy transition, which is likely to be affected by bilateral dynamics of this multi-level and multi-actor structure. The three hypotheses below are formed to deliver this initial argumentation for the prospect of this research:
Hypothesis 1: Dominance of fossil-fuels in the existing energy regime is an impediment to the development of the renewable energy sector.
Hypothesis 2: Turkish energy policy is inconsistent with the principles of energy transition and protects incumbent fossil fuel energy companies.
Hypothesis 3: State’s incentives for the development of wind and solar power sectors are advantageous for the prospect of the renewables market.
5. Data and methods
The research uses a qualitative research design, which is suitable to make a single-case study on Turkey, using triangulation method in analyzing statistical data and official policy documents, along with the secondary data acquired from peer-reviewed sources. The method increases the internal validity of the research, which aims to assess the causal relationship between policy and effect. The factors discussed throughout the thesis are variables of this relationship.
Primary data used in the research is acquired from national and international institutions in order to use legitimate and accurate data material in the research. Statistical data is employed in the analysis of energy situation and economic indicators regarding Turkey’s energy industry. Utilized statistical data sources include Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), British Petroleum (PB), Eurostat, the World Bank, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR), Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST), Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA), International Energy Agency (IEA). Data material used in the policy analysis is obtained from the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR), Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers (TMMOB), Turkish Wind Energy Association (TWEA).
Secondary data is collected from book chapters and peer-reviewed journal articles, which are specialized on Turkey, politics, economy, energy, environment and transition studies. Some of the main sources used in this category include Energy Research & Social Science, Environmental Science & Policy, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Renewable and Sustainable energy Reviews, Energy Policy, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Renewable Energy Journals. Furthermore, documents published by private research institutions such as SHURA Energy Transition Center, Istanbul Policy Center, Turkish Industrial Development Bank (TSKB) are also utilized when additional information and/or inference is required. Company webpages and corporate reports are consulted for related data, along with online newspaper articles for the assessment of recent developments.
The statistical energy data presented in chapter 2 of the thesis excludes 2018 data and only includes data from 2002 to 2017, because, as of June 2019, 2018 data is not officially published by the Turkish Statistics Institute. Primary data used in other parts of the thesis may include complementary data and information from 2018 and first half of 2019, retrieved from other sources.
6. The organization of the thesis
This thesis consists of five chapters that looks into Turkey’s energy transition process from 2002 to 2018, in order to identify the challenges to energy transition policies in the development of wind and solar power sectors.
Chapter two, “Energy Situation in Turkey,” focuses on the analysis of Turkey’s energy situation with relation to its energy economy, such as domestic energy resource reserves, energy production, consumption and trade. Government’s energy strategy is examined and significance of energy transition for Turkey is discussed. The chapter gives an overview of Turkey’s energy strategy for fossil-fuels, nuclear and renewable energy production, and related energy targets concerning supply security, import dependency and sustainability. It applies the resource scarcity model to Turkey and assesses its situation with relation to the indicators of the model to evaluate the state of its energy scarcity and need for transition.
Chapter three, “Wind and Solar Energy Resources in Practice,” studies the wind and solar power sectors in Turkey through a policy analysis. It analyzes the Turkish renewable energy policies and related policy tools/incentives to determine their challenges. Then, the chapter looks into the developments of wind and solar power industries since
2002 to determine the success of the implementation of these policies in accelerating the transition process.
The fourth chapter, “Wind and Solar Energy Industry Structure,” focuses on identifying the key actors of the energy transition process in Turkey through a state-market classification. It analyzes the impact of the relationship between the state and market actors in developing wind and solar power sectors in Turkey and looks into the relations in the industry that might resist energy transition.
In the fifth and final chapter of the thesis, “Conclusion” displays the analyses of the previous findings and answers the research question through identifying the
CHAPTER 2: ENERGY SITUATION IN TURKEY
1. Introduction
Energy situation of a country describes its domestic energy resources, energy production, consumption and trade relations that affect its industrial development levels, economic growth potential, and quality of life of its households. Its analysis is significant in determining the liabilities of the domestic economy, and what is the positive or negative contribution of its energy situation to that economic status: an energy-supplier country wouldn’t have a negative value in its balance sheet, contrary to an energy-importer’s, whose financial resources must be shared between its energy imports and economic investments.
This chapter focuses on the current energy situation of Turkey in order to answer the first sub-question of this research: What is the current fossil-fuel and renewable energy situation in Turkey? What is the impact of this energy situation on the Turkish economy? It analyzes domestic energy resources in the country, its energy production and consumption balances, its energy demand and imports with respect to fossil fuels and lastly, it assesses Turkey’s energy policies concerning supply security, import dependency and sustainability matters. This analysis of the current energy situation is important to understand the necessity of energy transition from fossil-fuel dominance to renewables for Turkey, through displaying where renewables stand in the domestic energy regime and how Turkey’s energy situation affects its economy.
To answer the question, the chapter is divided into seven sections. First, in section 2, an overview of Turkish economy is given. Then, Turkey’s existing energy resources and its domestic energy production are analyzed in section 3, through applying the resource scarcity model as a theoretical tool. Determining Turkey’s energy supply and demand situation relative to resource types is the main point of this analysis. In section 4, Turkey’s energy consumption is discussed with a focus on the share of electricity usage by different sectors and economic indicators about the country. Section 5 discusses Turkey’s energy trade situation through its net imports and its position in the energy economy. Section 6 analyzes the general energy policies of the Turkish government with respect to different energy resource types, in order to draw a clear picture of where energy transition policies stand within the government’s energy policy framework. The chapter ends with a conclusion in section 7.
2. An overview of the Turkish economy
In this section, an overview of the Turkish economy from 2002 to 2018 is made to explain the development process behind its energy situation. It deals with the political economy policies of the AKP government who has been in office for three consecutive terms since November 2002 elections.
Following the Turkish economic crisis of 2001, which was mainly caused by the inability of unstable political coalitions to provide strong fiscal policies and resulting high dependency on foreign investments, the Turkish economy went into an institutionalist neo-liberal reform process under the leadership of the last coalition government before the AKP era. These IMF and World Bank-led reform policies consisted of large-scale privatization of state-owned enterprises and strengthening of domestic institutions such as the Central Bank. The positive results of these reforms on the economy started to be visible after the victory of the AKP in the 2002 election with inflation falling as low as 5.4% in 2009 from 37.6% in 2002. Over the course of 16 years of the AKP government, from 2002 to 2017, Turkey’s GDP quadrupled and GDP per capita rose trifold (see Appendix 1 for a table of development indicators). Consolidated by international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and the EU, Turkish economy industrialized rapidly under the new neo-liberal market rules which were implemented by the central right, conservative AKP government. The new economic environment However, Öniş (2019) presents that this liberalist approach yields to a state-capitalist and developmentalist model of economy in the post-2011 era with the concentration of political power on Erdoğan, who has become the first president of Turkey with the 2018 presidential elections. The post-2011 economic and political system has tendencies to empower the business elite and to favor “emergence of powerful groups in sectors such as construction, energy and media, often with overlapping ownerships, with close ties to the party” (Öniş, 2019, p.8). Despite this developmentalist government approach, starting from 2015, Turkish economy started to show signs of relative weakening in the face of domestic political instability, leading to an escalation of authoritarian populist discourse. As part of this new path, development of a strong national industry is emphasized by the government in sectors like construction, transportation, defense and energy. On the other hand, the negative international reaction to the chance in discourse and political system has affected the economy significantly. Questions over independency of the Central Bank, transparency of institutions and clientelist tendencies of state investments resulted in the devaluation of Turkish Lira in the global markets, which
reached its worst through the currency crisis in 2018 due to economic sanctions from the Trump administration (idem., p.9).
The growth of the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2018, despite its turbulences, has affected Turkey’s energy needs significantly due to the development of energy-intense industries. The consequent energy situation is studied in the following sections.
3. Domestic energy resources and production
In order to see where Turkey’s energy situation stands in terms of level of dependence, first its domestic energy reserves are analyzed in this section. Then, its domestic energy production and consumption are examined to give a clear picture of the balance between energy supply and demand in the country, before its final position is analyzed according to the resource scarcity model at the end of the section.
Turkey is geographically situated in the Eurasia region, between Europe, Middle East and Asia; the country has sea borders to the Black Sea, Aegean and the Mediterranean. It is an immediate neighbor to some of the world’s main fossil-fuel supplier-states such as Russia (natural gas), Iran and Iraq (oil) (see Map 1). Its close proximity to these supplier-states means that Turkey’s geopolitical significance in the global politics is quite high, because most of these resources are transferred to energy importing states through numerous ports, straits and pipelines that pass through the territories of Turkey. Due to this advantageous geographical position, Turkey is able to diversify its energy sources and suppliers, and economically benefit from being the energy hub between Europe and the supplier-states (IEA, 2016, p.21). But, despite its position in this fossil-fuel rich region, Turkey doesn’t have accessible oil and natural gas reserves that might provide a portion of its domestic energy consumption. Turkey’s coal reserves, situated mostly in the central and northern regions, are considered to be of moderate amount on the global scale and constitute about 3.2% of global lignite reserves, according to the MENR. On the other hand, its geographical position and various climate conditions provide substantial potential for electrical energy generation from renewable resources such as hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal.
Primary energy is the energy form that is found in the nature, without going through any man-made conversion process: while fossil fuels are directly considered as primary energy, for renewable resources, electricity produced from these resources are accepted as primary energy. Primary energy production in Turkey have been on the rise due to growing energy demand from the intensified domestic economic activities and investments in various projects to improve production efficiency and increase capacity for different energy resources such as coal mines, thermal and hydropower plants, wind power plants. Figure 2 illustrates Turkey’s annual total primary energy production change between the years 2002 and 2017. As seen on the graph, it has risen up to 36501 ktoe in 2017 from 24291 ktoe in 2002, which is a 47% increase from its 2002 production level (Eurostat, 2019). This change in Turkey’s primary energy production is significant to understand the developments in the energy industry. As an energy-importer country, increasing domestic production is expected to positively affect the energy trade balance, and reduce foreign dependence. Energy trade situation and its impact on the Turkish economy are discussed in section 4 in detail.
Energy transition is based on the principles of electrification, decentralization and digitalization of the energy regime (See chapter 1 for detailed explanation). First, it requires electricity to become the primary energy source for all energy needs, replacing fuels as a resource. In an ideal energy-transitioned state, fuels such as oil and gas would only be used as raw material, not as a resource in thermal energy production. Decentralized energy
Source: Eurostat, Energy Balances, 2019
0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 35,000.0 40,000.0 P ro duc ti o n in kt o e Year
systems of renewable energy power plants distribute energy production to places where renewable resources exist, reducing the states’ control over energy production. Digitalization is necessary to manage the efficiency of an energy system that includes inputs from variable renewable energy (VRE) sources such as wind and solar. These principles and VRE sources are discussed in chapter 3 in detail, however as a result of the electrification principle, this chapter mostly focuses on electric power as an energy output. As mentioned earlier in the chapter, in terms of availability and accessibility of domestic natural gas and oil reserves, Turkey is in an unfortunate position compared to its neighboring countries. In terms of coal reserves, its position is considered to be better due to its hard coal and lignite reserves. MENR’s 2017 Turkey’s Hard Coal Sector Report state that the country has 1.5 billion tons of geologic reserves, of which nearly half is accepted as visible and extractable. In terms of lignite reserves, despite having considerably more, MENR studies show that over 60% of lignite has low-calorie heat value and therefore has a lower energy output after combustion at thermal power plants. Turkish Statistical Institute’s energy statistics data show that since 2002 share of coal as a fuel in electricity generation reached nearly 33% in 2017, from 25% in 2002 (see Table 2.1). Lack of
high-Year Total Coal Liquid fuels Natural Gas Hydro
Renewable Energy and wastes(1) (GWh) 2002 129.400 24,8 8,3 40,6 26,0 0,3 2003 140.581 22,9 6,6 45,2 25,1 0,2 2004 150.698 22,8 5,0 41,3 30,6 0,3 2005 161.956 26,6 3,4 45,3 24,4 0,3 2006 176.300 26,4 2,4 45,8 25,1 0,3 2007 191.558 27,9 3,4 49,6 18,7 0,4 2008 198.418 29,1 3,8 49,7 16,8 0,6 2009 194.813 28,6 2,5 49,3 18,5 1,2 2010 211.208 26,1 1,0 46,5 24,5 1,9 2011 229.395 28,8 0,4 45,4 22,8 2,6 2012 239.497 28,4 0,7 43,6 24,2 3,1 2013 240.154 26,6 0,7 43,8 24,7 4,2 2014 251.963 30,2 0,9 47,9 16,1 4,9 2015 261.783 29,1 0,9 37,9 25,6 6,5 2016 274.408 33,7 0,7 32,5 24,5 8,6 2017 297.278 32,8 0,4 37,2 19,6 10,0 (%)
Electricity generation and shares by energy resources
Source: Turkish Statistics Institute, Electricity Generation - Transmission Statistics of Turkey, 2018 (1) Renewable energy and waste includes geothermal, solar,wind, solid biomass, biogas and waste. Figures in table may not add up to totals due to rounding.
calorie burning coal reserves and increasing share of coal in production signal that imported coal supplies are used in thermal power plants to make up for insufficient and unqualified domestic hard coal and lignite reserves.
Next, we look at the hydropower resources in Turkey, which plays a significant part in the country’s energy portfolio. Turkey’s hydropower potential is substantial due to its large territory covering natural water resources. MENR states that Turkey’s theoretical hydropower capacity constitutes 1 percentile of the total global hydro capacity and its economic hydro potential is nearly 16% of the European potential. Of the 433 billion kWh/year theoretically potential hydraulic resources, 140 billion kWh/year is found technically and economically feasible for power generation. Installed capacity for hydropower have reached a third of total installed capacity in 2017, and despite utilizing only 42% of the hydropower potential, its production covered almost 20% of total electricity generation (see Table 2.1). The total installed capacity of reservoir and river type hydropower plants alone account for more than half of all the renewable energy installed capacity in Turkey, even without utilizing full potential of the reserves (See table 2.2.).
In 2007, Turkey published its first Wind Energy Potential Atlas, which showcased that western, southern and central regions of the country have high wind energy potential. The MENR studies conclude that from the 1.3% of the country’s surface area, 48000 MW wind power can be generated. The existing installed capacity of wind energy has reached nearly 7000 MW until 2019 from a 19MW capacity in 2002, and it provides Turkey with nearly 19.882 billion kWh electricity (MENR, 2019). Therefore, since only 15% of the wind energy potential is currently available for power generation, it remains as one of the almost ‘untapped’ domestic renewable energy resources in Turkey, even though its existent capacity constitutes a quarter of all renewable capacity of Turkey (see Table 2.2).
According to the Solar Power Potential Atlas, Turkey’s annual total hours of sunshine is 2741 (daily average 7.5 hours) and annual total solar radiation is 1.527 kWh/m² (daily average 4,18 kWh / m²) (MENR, 2019). This makes especially the southern regions of the country to have the great potential to generate solar power through the deployment of technologies such as photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) panels. Turkey’s installed capacity has reached from 1 MW capacity in 2002 to 5063 MW in 2018. Yet the share of solar power in the total electricity production is only 2.5% in 2018 with 7477 GWh yearly production. A detailed analysis of Turkey’s wind and solar power sectors is made in the next chapter of the thesis.
Other renewable energy resources such as geothermal, biomass, landfill gas currently comprise about 2% of Turkey’s total electricity production capacity. Due to their difference in production methods compared to fossil fuels, hydro, wind and solar power, and their low share in the energy mix, other renewable energy sources are not studied in detail for this research.
The look into Turkey’s domestic energy resources and production describes the inadequacy of domestic fossil fuel production to supply Turkey’s energy demands, while renewable sources like hydro, wind and solar remain almost untouched by the energy production industry. In the next section, how Turkey’s energy consumption collides with its domestic resources is studied to help determine the energy scarcity situation in the country.
Table 2.2 Renewable energy installed capacity April 2019 Renewable energy installed capacity April 2019
Resource Licenced Unlicenced Total Share in
Total RE (%) Wind 6638 52 6690 26,2% River type 6358 21 6379 25,0% Reservoir type 6368 0 6368 24,9% Solar 0 4141 4141 16,2% Geothermal 1273 0 1273 5,0% Biomass 322 30 352 1,4% Other 0 119 119 0,5% Biogas 93 23 116 0,5% Landfill gas(LFG) 101 0 101 0,4% (MW)
Source: Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST), Transparency Platform, 2019 Figures in table may not add up to totals due to rounding.
4. Energy consumption in Turkey
In this section, Turkey’s energy consumption and energy demand growth is discussed in order to study its energy dependency in the following ‘Energy trade and scarcity’ section. First, the share of electricity in energy consumption is analyzed, followed by an evaluation of its energy demand growth in relation to some economic indicators such as GDP and per capita income. Then, sectoral consumption of electricity over the years is assessed in an attempt to identify renewable energy consumption according to different sectors.
Turkey has become a heavily energy consuming country in recent decades, as shown in figure 2.2, its energy consumption has more than doubled between 2002 and 2017, from 73.1 mtoe in 2002 to 157.7 mtoe in 2017 according to BP’s 2018 Energy Statistics Report. Energy consumption is found correlated with economic growth of a country by many researchers (Bulut and Muratoğlu, 2018, p. 242-243) and Turkey’s economic development and growth rate are quite similar with what its energy consumption graphics show: Increased energy consumption shown in figure 2.2 indicate increased economic activity in value added industries that contribute to better development patterns, which translate into higher per capita income and energy consumption as figure 5 shows. In general, Bulut and Muratoglu (2018) state that the nature of the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption may depend on different dynamics such as
Figure 2.2 Primary energy consumption in mtoe (2002-2017)
73.1 77.5 82.8 84.9 94.3 100.4 100.8 102.2 107.7115.1 122.3 121.6 125.6 137.5144.4 157.7 -20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 C o ns um pt io n in m to e Year Source: BP, 2018
consumption feeding the economy, bidirectional causality, GDP causing increased consumption and lack of any causality between growth and energy consumption. In Turkey’s case, the analogy between the graphics based on time-series data showcase more of an energy-led economic growth and growth-led intense energy consumption. This correlation and the results of Bulut and Muratoglu’s (2018) study denote that through increased energy consumption in its fossil-fuels dominated energy regime (see figure 2.3 for final energy consumption by source), the economy in Turkey has grown, but this situation also means that the economic cost of energy had become an impediment to growth at the same time. The study also remarks that, for renewable energy consumption, there is neutrality between economic growth and energy consumption, claiming energy transition would have no impact on economic growth, positive or negative (idem, p. 247). Energy scarcity is discussed in detail later in this chapter.
The increase in Turkey’s energy consumption over the years, along with its economic growth, also signal an increasing energy demand. Its industrializing economy is becoming more dependent on advanced technologies, which require significant energy supplies compared to traditional production mechanisms (Kok and Benli, 2017, p.870). Figure 2.4 depicts the per capita electricity consumption in Turkey from 1990 to 2016, during which time technology has evolved from means to an end in itself for the economy. Therefore, along with economic growth comes a transition to energy-intensive production and increased industrial energy demand that necessitates more energy supplies, especially in the form of electricity, which is consumed at all levels of the industry (Bulut and
Source: IEA World Energy Balances, 2018
Muratoğlu, 2018, p.242). Electrification and automation of traditional industries and introduction of new technologies such as cloud tech, data artificial intelligence, internet of things/blockchain technologies into the global economy force Turkish economy to compete with these higher energy-intensive global developments (World Energy Council, 2019). The rate at which Turkey’s per capita electricity consumption increased is a signal of how energy demand will increase in the near future.
Table 2.3 Net electricity consumption by sectors (2002-2017)
Year Total Household Commercial Government Industrial Illumination Other(1)
(GWh) 2002 102.948 22,9 10,6 4,4 49,0 5,0 8,1 2003 111.766 22,5 11,5 4,1 49,3 4,5 8,1 2004 121.142 22,8 12,9 3,7 49,2 3,7 7,7 2005 130.263 23,7 14,2 3,6 47,8 3,2 7,5 2006 143.071 24,1 14,2 4,2 47,5 2,8 7,2 2007 155.135 23,5 14,9 4,5 47,6 2,6 6,9 2008 161.948 24,4 14,8 4,5 46,2 2,5 7,6 2009 156.894 25,0 15,9 4,5 44,9 2,5 7,2 2010 172.051 24,1 16,1 4,1 46,1 2,2 7,4 2011 186.100 23,8 16,4 3,9 47,3 2,1 6,5 2012 194.923 23,3 16,3 4,5 47,4 2,0 6,5 2013 198.045 22,7 18,9 4,1 47,1 1,9 5,3 2014 207.375 22,3 19,2 3,9 47,2 1,9 5,5 2015 217.312 22,0 19,1 3,7 47,6 1,9 5,7 2016 231.204 22,2 18,8 3,9 46,9 1,8 6,4 2017 249.023 21,8 19,8 4,1 46,8 1,8 5,7
Source: TEDC, Electricity Distribution and Consumption Statistics of Turkey
(1) It includes consumption in agriculture, livestock, fishery sector and municipal water abstraction pumping facilities, and other public services etc. Figures in table may not add up to totals due to rounding.
(%)
Distribution of net electricity consumption by sectors
Source: IEA World Energy Balances, 2018
