{
Rebalancing?
The U.S. and European Reaction to the Rise of the Emerging Economies 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 PRC US J EUAmerican Perceptions (in %)
May '00 Feb '08 Feb '11
Who is Currently the Economic Leader
in the World?
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1994 1999 2004 2010 US China Japan India Germany UK Brazil S Korea GNI, in bn U.S. $ (PPP) Source: World Bank Database 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1994 1999 2004 2010 EU US China Japan India Brazil S Korea GNI, in bn U.S. $ (PPP) Source: World Bank Database 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 1994 1999 2004 2010 US China Japan India Germany UK Brazil S Korea GNI/Capita, in U.S. $ (PPP) Source: World Bank Database 24 9 8 28 2 3 2 242009
US China Japan EU India Brazil Sub Sahara Rest Source: World Development Institute14 28 3 11 12 2 8 22
2050
US China Japan EU India Brazil Sub Sahara Rest Source: World Development Institute US PRC D J F NL B Br InKo 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Im port ExportMain Merchandise Exporters/Importers, 1999
Source: International Trade Statistics, Editions 2000 to 2010 US PRC D J F NL B Br In Ko 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Im port ExportMain Merchandise Exporters/Importers, 2004
Source: International Trade Statistics, Editions 2000 to 2010 US PRC D J F NL B Br In Ko 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Im port ExportMain Merchandise Exporters/Importers, 2009
Source: International Trade Statistics, Editions 2000 to 2010 US PRC D J F NL B Br In Ko 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 100 200 300 400 500 Im port ExportMain Services Exporters/Importers, 1999
Source: International Trade Statistics, Editions 2000 to 2010 US PRC D J F NL B Br In Ko 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 100 200 300 400 500 Im port ExportMain Services Exporters/Importers, 2004
Source: International Trade Statistics, Editions 2000 to 2010US PRC D J F NL B Br In Ko 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 100 200 300 400 500 Im port Export
Main Services Exporters/Importers, 2009
Source: International Trade Statistics, Editions 2000 to 2010 ‐8 ‐6 ‐4 ‐2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 US China Germany India Brazil Current Account Surplus/Deficit (in %GDP) Source: Trading Economics Data ‐8 ‐6 ‐4 ‐2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Germany Italy France Poland Netherlands Current Account Surplus/Deficit (in %GDP) Source: Trading Economics DataEU Export in Goods
Russia: 6.0% Turkey: 3.9% Switzerland: 7.4% South Africa: 1.7% U.S.: 22.7% Canada: 2.3% PR China: 5.4% Japan: 3.8% South Korea: 1.9% India: 2.1% U.A.E.: 2.1%EU‐27
Russia: 10.1% Turkey: 2.8% Switzerland: 5.2% South Africa: 1.4% U.S.: 13.1% Canada: 1.5% PR China: 14.1% Japan: 5.6% South Korea: 2.9% India: 1.7%EU‐27
Norway: 5.8% Algeria: 1.8% Libya: 1.9% Brazil: 1.9% Taiwan: 1.9% Saudi‐Arabia: 1.7%EU Import in Goods
U.S. Export in Goods
Mexico: 13.3% Singapore: 2.3% EU: 20.7% Canada: 23.4% PR China: 4.6% Japan: 6.1% South Korea: 3.1%U.S.
Taiwan: 2.4%Mexico: 10% Malaysia: 2.1% Taiwan: 2.1% Nigeria: 1.4% EU: 18.5% Canada: 16.8% PR China: 15% Japan: 8.2% South Korea: 2.6% India: 1.1%
U.S.
Venezuela: 2% Brazil: 1.5% Saudi‐Arabia: 1.7%U.S. Import in Goods
0 10 20 30 40 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 US EU Thailand Russia Korea Japan India Taiwan China Brazil Anti‐Dumping Measures, E.U. (in percentage of E.U. total) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 US EU Thailand Russia Korea Japan India Taiwan China Brazil Anti‐Dumping Measures, U.S. (in percentage of U.S. total) Source: China Daily, Oct. 27, 2010 Barack Obama, Interview with CNN (Sept. 20, 2009) “We can’t go back to the era where the Chinese or the Germans or other countries just are selling everything to us, we’re taking out a bunch of credit cards or home equity loans, but we’re not selling anything to them.” • U.S. debt and consumption would decline • Chinese domestic demand would rise • The renminbi would need to appreciate “China’s impressive economic rise would not have been possible without an open global trading system. This continued openness of market remains a pre‐ requisite also for China’s further development. But open market cannot be taken for granted, and are essentially a two‐way street. When problems relating to market access and non‐discriminatory treatment on the basis of their origin keep piling up, people start questioning the legitimacy and rationale of keeping the European market open. I am not one of the sceptics myself, but I see the dangers of this development for the very prosperous long‐term agenda that should be possible between our two economies.” Karel De Gucht, EU‐China High Level Political Forum (Nov. 8, 2011) “More balanced, and what we call ‘reciprocal’ market access, is (…) increasingly important to fight the rising tendencies in some parts of Europe seeing Chinese investment and access to the European market as a threat.”Hu Jintao, Speech at the APEC CEO‐Summit in Honolulu (Nov. 13, 2011) “The new mechanism for global economic governance should reflect the changes in the world economic landscape. It should observe the principle of mutual respect and collective decision‐making and increase the representation and voice of emerging markets and developing countries.” World Bank IMF WTO OECD G7 Embedded Liberalism Washington Consensus US EU J U.S.: 17.3% Japan: 6.2% Germany: 6.0% France: 5.0% UK: 5.0% Italy: 3.3% S.Arabia: 3.2% China: 2.9% Canada: 2.9% Russia: 2.7% Netherlands: 2.4% Belgium: 2.1% Brazil: 1.4% Pre‐2008 EU US Lender of Last Resort Market of Last Resort “Le privilège exorbitant” World Bank IMF WTO OECD G7 Competitive Liberalism US EU J U.S.: 17.3% Japan: 6.2% Germany: 6.0% France: 5.0% UK: 5.0% Italy: 3.3% S.Arabia: 3.2% China: 2.9% Canada: 2.9% Russia: 2.7% Netherlands: 2.4% Belgium: 2.1% Brazil: 1.4% Pre‐2008 16.4% 6.1% 5.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 2.2% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 2.2% Post‐2011 EU US Lender of Last Resort Market of Last Resort = Rebalancing “Le privilège exorbitant ?” G20+ G20 Ch Executive Board
