The effect of water uncertainty for dependent communities : a study on adaptation and its management of agricultural communities within the fringes of Botswana's Okavango Delta

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The Effect of Water Uncertainty for Dependent

Communities

A Study on Adaptation and its Management of Agricultural

Communities within the fringes of Botswana’s Okavango Delta

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The Effect of Water Uncertainty for Dependent

Communities

A Study on Adaptation and its Management of Agricultural

Communities within the fringes of Botswana’s Okavango Delta

James Briars 12235954 jamiebriars@gmail.com Msc. Thesis – International Development Studies Graduate School of the Social Sciences University of Amsterdam The Netherlands Thesis Supervisor: Andres Verzijl Second Reader: Maarten Bavinck

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Abstract

The inland Okavango Delta, Botswana, is a wetland region highly dependent on flooding for its own seasonal formation, which provides irreplaceable ecological, economic and social benefits to the region. Climatic processes have begun to change the seasonality of flooding in the delta, creating heightened periods of drought as well as vast uncertainty as to when the floods will come; issues which climate change threatens to exacerbate. Previous research has detailed how local farmers live alongside the delta’s seasonal flooding in the form of

livelihood adaptations – in particular molapo (flood recession) farming, however there is minimal literature regarding the new threat facing the delta, as well as outdated official management plans detailing adaption strategies for farmers whom will be the most effected by further changes.

This research project aims to understand how management-level stakeholders are formulating the current threat facing the delta’s water resources, contrasting this knowledge against the perspective of local stakeholders, particularly farmers, including how their livelihoods are affected by uncertainty, how they are adapting to limit the negative effects of uncertainty, and how their practices are influenced by management-level decisions.

Thus, semi-structured in-depth interviews with stakeholders of multiple levels have been adopted, as well as observations of local practices when in the local communities of the south/south-eastern edges of the delta. This study found there to be a significant conflict between local and management-level stakeholders, with locals disregarding government adaptive strategies in favour of traditional and cultural livelihood practices. Initially, this finding seemed questionable given the ease of certain adaptations farmers could undertake which would have significant benefits to their crop productivity and livelihoods. However, upon further understanding of the context/nature of the conflict between local communities and the government, dis-trust and dis-regard for adaptive government policy can be better understood. Several factors influence this decision from farmers of the delta, including: local customs and culture, tribal identity, spiritual beliefs, long-term economic development and inequality. Thus, these findings add credence to arguments regarding the inefficiencies of adaptive management literature, in that management often fails to adequately capture human-environment relations at the local-level.

Key words: Okavango Delta, Botswana, Water Scarcity, Uncertainty, Adaptive

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Acknowledgements

First and foremost, I would like to give great thanks to all those I encountered during my time in Botswana. Everyone I met along the way welcomed me into their country with open arms and utmost generosity. Botswana is a special place, made ever so wonderful by the kindness of its people whom were always willing to help me however they could. Whether that was through inviting me for meals or offering a place to stay, or just genuine intrigue in what I was doing, rarely would anyone expect anything in return despite offering me so much. Honourable mentions must be given to the Motsebe family for their hospitality and friendship in Maun, as well as the Sexaxa Village Community Trust for their assistance in helping me access delta-farmer participants. The time and support of Ekesi in particular greatly influenced the process and I wish you well with you’re ambitions for the community.

I extend my deepest gratitude and appreciation to my supervisor in Amsterdam, Andres Verzijl. The writing process of this thesis has been a big learning process for me – your guidance and patience throughout the process has been invaluable.

To my family, friends and Zoe, your support over this last year has been incomprehensible and I appreciate you all.

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List of Figures:

- Figure 1: Location of the Okavango Delta and its Principal Features - Figure 2: Okavango River Annual Inflow at Mohembo

- Figure 3: Multi-phased Adaptive Management process - Figure 4: Conceptual Scheme

- Figure 5: Map of the Okavango Delta region

- Figure 6: A photo of the floodplain at Sexaxa Village

- Figure 7: Map of the Okavango Basin, including catchment area in Angola. - Figure 8: Key Delta Management Stakeholders

- Figure 9: A water-efficient molapo farm as envisaged by delta managers with various rows and sectors

- Figure 10: Summary of Delta Management Strategy Design - Figure 11: One example of a modern Kgotla

- Figure 12: Another traditional-style Kgotla

- Figure 13: Summary of Factors contributing to Conflict

List of Abbreviations:

- BOD: Botswanan Okavango Delta

- DEA: Department of Environmental Affairs - DWA: Department of Water Affairs

- DCP: Department of Crop Production - DAR: Department of Agricultural Research - MOA: Ministry of Agriculture

- NGO: Non-Governmental Organisation - ODMP: Okavango Delta Management Plan - ORI: Okavango Research Institute

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1 – Introduction

1.1 – The Okavango Delta, Botswana

Botswana has been heralded as an elephant safe haven in Africa; a continent home to various nations at the forefront of the ivory trade and commercial hunting industry. By introducing a ban on all forms of animal hunting in 2014, the government of Botswana have paved the way for conservation efforts in Africa. However, recently, the government of Botswana have announced that they will be lifting the hunting ban due to various reasons, which has caused vast international outcry from conservationists and environmentalists. The primary cause for the lifting of the ban is due to increased cases of human-wildlife conflict with elephants in northern Botswana, which is in part a result of increasing elephant population sizes since the ban was first introduced (Burke, 2019). Another significant factor behind this increase is changes to the Okavango Delta ecosystem. The delta is a tremendous wetland home to a diverse range of wildlife and ecology, with the water of the delta acting as an oasis to the nearby Kalahari Desert. This ecosystem is vital for sustaining life in an otherwise vastly semi-arid country – especially for indigenous communities residing on the fringes of the delta. Changes to the seasonality of flooding and drought to now-sporadic flood events and sustained periods of drought has created a significant deal of uncertainty for the delta’s water resource supply. The long periods of drought in particular are adversely affecting the region’s elephant population in terms of their access to water, causing these animals to seek water elsewhere. This has led to elephants entering urban areas as well as private rural farmland, which results in the destruction of crops and arable land (Nkala, 2017).

The increasing prominence of human-wildlife conflict in the country in relation to water issues is a symptom of a wider problem facing Botswana and the water resources of the Okavango Delta which will be focused upon in this thesis. Studies undertaken by Moses & Hambira (2018) and Milzow et al. (2010) believe that anthropocentric global warming and climate change is adversely affecting the delta. Whilst there is no consensus as to the precise impact of climate change for the delta, it can be seen that the Okavango is under the ambiguous threat of uncertainty posed by the various influences acting upon the delta’s water such as upstream land-use changes and natural climate cycles. This threat is particularly concerning for farmers of the delta; traditional agricultural practices known as molapo farming, involves specific timing of planting crops as the floodwaters recede. Floodwater is therefore a valuable resource necessary to maintain agricultural livelihoods; increasing uncertainty over the presence of floodwater within the delta places agricultural livelihoods on a difficult path given their dependency on the delta as their primary supply of water. This study will seek to assess how this threat of water resource uncertainty is being managed at the government-level, as well as how local and indigenous communities affected first-hand by such changes are engaging with adaptation strategies to maintain their livelihoods within the delta.

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1.2 – Problem Statement & Research Aim

Climate change is an Earth process of increasing prominence, particularly for delta landforms, which are regions especially vulnerable to its negative consequences. Particularly in the case of coastal delta systems, the construction of dams and dikes upstream often impedes natural sediment deposition, ultimately leading to sinking land within (lower parts of) deltas. This issue accompanied with rising sea levels resulting from climate change processes results in an increasing likelihood of flooding as well as permanent submergence being a general trend facing deltas globally (IADC, 2009).

The Okavango Delta in northern Botswana (BOD) faces a unique set of challenges as an inland delta. Water within this specific type of delta does not exit the delta by flowing into an ocean or sea as with coastal deltas, meaning that in the case of the BOD, the delta is in a permanent wetland state. Therefore, the state of water in this inland delta is determined by the balance between water inflows and evapotranspiration processes (Milzow et al. 2010). Moses and Hambira’s (2018) study considers how climate change and rising temperatures in this semi-arid region could lead to increased evapotranspiration rates within the delta, which poses vulnerability to the balance within the delta and its hydrological cycles. Climatic processes threaten the delta’s water in terms of quantity and volume, which poses uncertain impacts for flooding within the delta as well as potentially enhancing droughts.

Figure 1: Location of the Okavango Delta and its Principal Features Source: (Wolski et al. 2005, p.180) As seen in Figure 1, the extent of the land that is flooded in the delta is variable, consisting of areas of permanent swampland closer to the inflows from the panhandle region; areas of seasonal floodplains beyond the permanent swampland; as well as areas subject to occasional floods at the outer-areas of the delta. Wolski et al.’s (2005) article details how the inflows into the delta are annually variable, which determines the flood-levels of the different areas of the delta each year – represented

in Figure 2 below. Additionally, McCarthy et al.’s (2000) study outlines how the average discharge levels from the main inflow rivers has been gradually declining over time, meaning that the supply of water entering the delta is decreasing each year. The primary effect of this decline is increased irregularity to the flood levels in the outer-areas of the delta that experience occasional flooding (Milzow et al. 2010). Given that the water inflows at Mohembo (where the

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3 Okavango River enters the delta) are declining on average yet are annually variable, there is unpredictability for flood levels in these outer areas of the delta – where the indigenous inhabitants of the delta tend to reside. Paired with the threat of increased evapotranspiration rates within the delta, the BOD’s water and flooding patterns are increasingly vulnerable. Figure 2 (below) is the most recently available study that demonstrates this variability of water inflows entering the delta – whilst the final recording for this study was in 2001, this graph serves its purpose in demonstrating how water entering the delta is difficult to predict.

This unpredictability sets the delta’s inhabitants on a difficult path. Agricultural livelihoods are a common practice undertaken by delta communities to achieve subsistence, which are built on extensive local knowledge of living in the delta, coexisting with the presence of floodwater. Tribal culture is also prominent in Botswana, which has a significant impact on agricultural practices within the delta. Agricultural communities and villages are for the most part located in the areas of the delta subject to occasional flooding due to the stability offered by a reduced threat of flood inundation. Typically, delta communities belong to the indigenous Bayei tribe, which means that agricultural livelihoods and life within the delta tends to adhere to the cultural traditions of this particular Batswana tribe (The study sites are considered as local-communities and indigenous communities interchangeably throughout this thesis). Farmers commonly practice ‘molapo’ farming (flood recession agriculture) – which involves planting crops in the floodplain as the floodwater recedes. This form of agriculture is extremely accessible; processes of fluvial sediment deposition from the floodwater results in fertile soil, meaning that the land in the floodplain is productive and requires minimal inputs other than the seeds for the crops (Magole and Thapelo, 2005). However, increases to the irregularity of flooding within the outer-areas of the delta makes molapo-style agricultural livelihoods increasingly vulnerable. The exact number of farmers dependent on the delta’s water resources is not known, however, Motsholapheko et al. (2011) note how the population of the Ngamiland District in northern Botswana, which is home to the BOD, is over 125,000. Settlements in this region are concentrated around the outer-edges of the delta, where this study describes agricultural livelihoods as ‘common’. Thus, it can be determined that there is a need for adaptation in order for these delta inhabitants to maintain this form of livelihood as a method of achieving subsistence, especially given that climate change and rising temperatures in the region are set to exacerbate the current climatic issues leading to water insecurity (Moses & Hambira, 2018).

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4 Figure 2: Okavango River Annual Inflow at Mohembo. Source: Magole & Thapelo (2005, p.126).

To manage the vulnerable land within the delta and mitigate the uncertainty facing the water of the delta, the Okavango Delta Management Plan (ODMP) was formulated in 2008, designed as an integrated approach to mobilise all important stakeholders involved in managing the delta through active participation and accountability (Mfundisi, 2008). The overall goal of the ODMP is to:

integrate resource management for the Okavango Delta that will ensure its long-term conservation and that will provide benefits for the present and future well-being of the people, through sustainable use of its natural resources (2008, p.1).

Commonly, western-style delta management discourses have focused on hard-engineering, technocratic solutions to flood events within delta landforms such as levee and dyke construction. These measures are designed with the aim of substantially reducing the presence of floodwater within the land of deltas in order for inhabitants to be as least effected by the presence of floodwater as possible (van Wesenbeeck et al, 2014). However, such a delta-management strategy is not a viable option for a developing country like Botswana due to a number of reasons. Firstly, due to the ecosystem services and source of natural capital the delta provides to its inhabitants, flooding is a significant and beneficial ecological process (Magole & Thapelo, 2005). Floodwater is essential for the long-term ecological sustainability of the land, as fluvial sediment deposition supplies essential nutrients to the land which maintains agricultural productivity as well as strengthening the land to resist subsidence. Technocratic management solutions inhibit these processes of fluvial sediment deposition (Ehlert, 2012; Liao et al. 2016; van Wesenbeeck et al, 2014; Tsheboeng et al. 2014). Therefore, such hard-engineering solutions for the delta designed to alleviate the land from floodwater jeopardises the ecosystem services of the land in the long-run. Additionally, pursuit of technocratic measures for alleviating floodwater is a strategy with extensive difficulties and costs to its design, implementation and maintenance (Motsholapheko et al., 2011; Cuny, 1991). Henceforth, an adaptive strategy that is designed to reduce the water resource uncertainty for the delta posed by climate change and environmental shocks, whilst also recognising the need

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5 for an approach that considers the important role of floodwater and thus the need for the delta’s inhabitants to coexist with floodwater is vital. A management strategy that adheres to these characteristics in important to sustain the ecological characteristics of the delta, the ecosystem services, and source of natural capital that the land provides for its inhabitants (Wesselink et al., 2015).

The aim of this study is to offer assessment on how the notions of conservation and sustainability formulated by expert-level stakeholders engaging in an adaptive management process, and as envisaged within the ODMP, translates into practice within the local communities of the BOD, if at all. Furthermore, attention will be paid to understanding of the indigenous, contextual knowledge that is mobilised within the practices of various local stakeholder groups residing within and around the delta, whom face such issues of water resource uncertainty on a day-to-day basis. Thus, this study will adopt the following primary research question:

- How is Botswana’s Okavango Delta being managed in order for the delta’s inhabitants to

live with floodwater whilst reducing resource uncertainty? 1.3 – Relevance

In general, deltas are vulnerable landforms that are subject to a complex web of internal and external processes and influences. Renaud and Kuenzer (2012) discuss how delta landforms are as of 2012, home to over 500 million people worldwide. Climate change is widely considered to be the most prominent threat facing deltas globally. One consequence of climate change is sea-level-rise due to de-glaciation in Greenland and the melting of Antarctic ice as global average temperatures are rising, which leads to devastating challenges in particular for low-lying coastal river deltas (IPCC, 2007). The immediate challenge to these deltas is extensive flooding as well as saltwater intrusion, which can dramatically change the balance of life within a complex ecosystem resulting in vast ecological, social and economic destruction. Mitigating this risk entirely is increasingly improbable, meaning adaptation is essential (Adget et al. 2003).

Research and academic funding generally focuses on matters within coastal deltas and the threat posed by sea level rise and saltwater intrusion. However, as mentioned the Okavango Delta faces a unique set of threats and challenges due to its inland location; surrounded by desert in a land-locked country. Inland deltas are under-researched due to their rarity which reflects the lack of published social science and ethnographic research currently regarding the BOD. The primary threats to the Okavango (differing from coastal deltas) are in the form of a break of seasonality, increasing drought as well as heightened evapotranspiration rates (Moses & Hambira, 2018; Milzow et al. 2010); thus, this study is beneficial in order to highlight and emphasise the unique situation of inland deltas and the Okavango Delta in particular.

Contextually specific, there is limited research detailing the adaptations within the BOD and the management strategies designed to mitigate uncertainty in the face of climate change and

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6 ecological shocks. One study conducted by Motsholapheko et al. (2011) detailed certain adaptation strategies undertaken by households and communities within the BOD in response to delta water issues. The study found that the dominant flood-coping strategies were “labour switching to other livelihood activities, …seeking government assistance and …short term local mobility” (p.992). However, this study took a singular focus regarding livelihood adaptations, including how local stakeholders overcame the negative effects once a flood has occurred as an adaptation strategy, avoiding attention to floodwater management strategies designed to limit the damaging effects of a flood before it has occurred, thus not requiring extensive livelihood adaptations. Furthermore, this study did not include notions of adaptation in times of drought and limited water resources necessary for agricultural livelihoods.

Furthermore, the Okavango Delta has become a highly politicised arena with a multitude of actors with varying interests. In particular, the government’s appropriation of the delta through their conservation movement with aims of expanding the country’s tourism industry, has created change within the environment. Thus, the ethnographic commitment of this study to portray local-level actors such as agricultural communities of the delta and their livelihoods in the context of the government’s increased role within the delta is relevant to incorporate their perspective, and their own individual challenges.

1.4 – Research set-up

This thesis will consist of eight main chapters. This first introductory chapter consisting of a problem statement and the relevance of this research highlights key topics within this research; uncertainty, adaptation and coexisting with flooding. These topics will be elaborated upon and conceptualized in chapter two; the theoretical framework. The third chapter will seek to outline the methodological commitments undertaken during my time in the field, as well as reflection upon these decisions. Chapters four, five and six will present the empirical analysis. Discussion of these chapters within the context of the theoretical framework will follow (chapter seven), which will then be concluded upon in the final chapter with additional policy recommendations and suggestions for future research.

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2 – Theoretical Framework

Political ecology offers a useful approach to research involving the analysis of complex socio-ecological problems and the causes and consequences behind such developments. Harrill (1999) describes the goal of political ecology as “facilitating sustainable development through the reconstruction of social and political systems” (p.67). The political ecology approach is in concern with the appropriation and commodification of nature through the expansion of global corporate capitalism, which often lends itself to unequal distributions related to variance in political power amongst actors involved (Bookchin, 1990). Such outcomes can be particularly damaging for local and indigenous communities, whom are often exploited and excluded from access to their environment due to lack of political power. Political ecology is normative in its line of inquiry, seeking to offer solutions where possible to aid the struggles and interests of marginalized communities. A strong methodological commitment lends the political ecology approach to qualitative forms of research, in particular ethnography, as up-close observational research is essential for understanding key-elements of nature-society relations (Walker, 2005; Watts, 2015).

Political ecology offers a relevant line of inquiry given the following three theoretical concepts to follow in the sections below, which will formulate this theoretical framework. Central to these concepts of resource uncertainty, adaptive management, and local knowledge and reality; are notions of conflict between stakeholders at different levels, which is a consequence of efforts of environmental management. This form of intervention in nature has meant that the BOD has become a politicised arena, where power-relations between actors are determining the outcome of human-nature relations. Inefficiencies within the interaction between stakeholders has meant that efforts for human-nature relations to become more sustainable are not occurring, meaning political change is necessary for sustainability to become a tangible outcome. Thus, considering power relations between actors as highlighted by political ecology throughout this research project, with particular attention given to equitable representation for local stakeholders, will be pertinent for analysis leading to certain ways in which environmental management can become more effective at dealing with the threat posed to nature, and the indigenous communities dependent on their relationship with the environment. In the context of this study, the approach offered by political ecology is relevant given the current situation in Botswana. Given the multitude of actors with differing interests operating within the delta, in particular the government with aims of conservation and tourism expansion, it is beneficial to consider the presence of local-level communities of the delta, whom have less political power as actors than the government and large tourist organisations. Additionally, the presence of tribalism in Botswana and the dominance of one tribe in particular – the Tswana – as the only officially recognised tribe of the country, creates a sense of power behind this tribe, to the exclusion of other tribes within the country, particularly in the BOD region. Thus, analysis focusing on the significance of tribal identities of the communities of the delta through a political ecology lens is important within the context of this thesis.

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2.1 – Resource Uncertainty

The basis of uncertainty as a theoretical concept focuses on knowledge, and that certain ecosystems under a wide-array of influences can be seen as systems within the presence of uncertainty. This is due to a lack of or incomplete knowledge about the overall ecosystem and the influences acting upon it, as well as difficulties in the acquisition of knowledge necessary to formulate resource issues with a robust degree of certainty (Vermeulen et al., 2013). Thus, the presence of uncertainty within water resource systems of deltas are seen to be wicked problems, meaning that they cannot be solved. Alternatively, a more tangible approach is to manage these systems and issues as best possible based upon the limited knowledge available (Luoma et al., 2015).

The nature of water itself as a resource contributes to uncertainty. Water is a fluid and dynamic resource, thus unpredictable, meaning it has consistently proved difficult to view water as a resource of significant security (Lavau, 2013). Roth and Warner’s (2007) article demonstrates notions of inherent uncertainty within water management systems, the presence of which must be recognised and accounted for as a first step in mitigation. The article uses the example of Dutch flood management systems, which are based on precise measurements of water discharge levels as an indicator for the success of certain interventions. However, various assumptions are made when attempting to measure water discharge quantities, which can have certain implications for the outcomes of such measurements. Roth and Warner note how “putting a number on a possible peak discharge turns out to be a leap of faith” (2007, p.521). Thus, it can be seen that attempting to precisely measure water, as in the case of the Dutch management system, uncertainty must be accommodated for, and its presence must be recognised within the margins of such measurements (Zevenbergen et al., 2013). Matrosov (2015) compounds this view with discussion of the non-stationarity of water as a resource, and how predictions over the forces acting upon a human-water interrelated system are difficult. For example, it is difficult to predict precise measurements of water over time when volume is affected by precipitation which can be extremely variable. Williams (2011) recognises this issue as inherent in in certain water systems. This author describes ‘structural uncertainty’, involving a lack of knowledge from those designing and implementing a management strategy about the ecological characteristics involved in natural resource management and the relationships between interventions and outcomes (Memarzadeh & Boettiger, 2018). Thus, a management system to mitigate uncertainty must recognise the difficulties presented by non-stationarity and the premise that all is not known when managing water (Walters & Holling, 1990). A study by Vermuelen et al. (2013) using the case study of adaptation planning for climatic uncertainty in Sri Lanka, demonstrates how increasing knowledge acquisition benefits the process of decision-making under such circumstances for more positive outcomes, validating the significance of efforts to learn more about an ecosystem when facing uncertainty. Uncertainty over water resources is an issue that is not simply present within select cases but has become an increasingly global issue. Rapid population growth has increased demand for water in various ways; in particular through heightened personal consumption, changing land uses affecting water resources, and expanding industries; resulting in water scarcity being a

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9 significant contributing factor towards uncertainty (Hall, 2003). Water scarcity is also heavily influenced by global climate change, rising temperatures increase rates of evaporation and transpiration, which are particularly damaging for water resources in arid and semi-arid regions (Greve et al., 2018; Vörösmarty et al., 2013; Pahl-Wostl, 2006). Whilst scholars debate over whether water scarcity at the global level has the potential for a Malthusian-envisaged economic collapse, Jury and Vaux (2007) demonstrate that water scarcity and rising demand resulting from population growth has the potential for numerous water-related problems and conflicts, which will affect the developing world the hardest (Mach et al., 2019). Therefore, methods of management that mitigate the risk posed by water scarcity and uncertainty are pertinent to avoid devastating consequences.

Alternatively, Urteaga-Crovetto (2016) demonstrates how discourses of water scarcity can often be socially constructed as part of the process of politicising and commodifying the environment, meaning that scarcity and uncertainty can be formulated to suit powerful actors. This finding is important due to the premise that water scarcity is not always an objective reality but can be an issue of subjective ontological construction. Therefore, this author’s study adds credence to the viewpoint of political ecology, in that even when resource uncertainty is a product of water scarcity, this occurrence can still be politicised resulting in exploitation and exclusion by powerful actors for political means. Furthermore, in terms of epistemology, powerful actors can dictate knowledge mobilisation due to their influence. Foucault (1972) inextricably links power with knowledge, which means that the knowledge of less-powerful actors can be excluded. Thus, it is important to recognise that when considering matters of scarcity and uncertainty, whose knowledge is mobilized in the framing of these issues can create differing outcomes.

Overall, given the characteristics and nature of water as a resource, uncertainty can be seen to have an inherent presence within such water-systems, particularly in the cases of deltas. Therefore, it is important for a management approach enacting upon uncertain water resources to recognise the presence of the characteristics of water that contribute to it being an un-secure resource. This concept will be particularly relevant for stakeholders involved in the planning and formulation of management strategies, such as the ODMP, as assumptions regarding water status that do not accommodate for uncertainty will suffer from inefficiencies. Thus, this study will seek to assess how uncertainty is formulated by different stakeholders operating within the BOD, particularly at the management-level, as measures to limit uncertainty are important given the water issues facing the delta and the population dependent on its floodwater resources. Furthermore, how uncertainty is perceived by delta management stakeholders will be useful for the context of an adaptive approach to management, which will be outlined below.

2.2 – Adaptive Management

Adaptation itself involves a “process, action or outcome in a system (household, community, group, sector, region, country) in order for the system to better cope with, manage or adjust to some changing condition, stress, hazard, risk or opportunity” (Smit & Wandel, 2006, p.282). This process can be reactive or anticipatory. Engagement with adaptation is formulated by two

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10 main factors: adaptive capacity – the ability to adapt, and vulnerability – the level of threat posed by changing conditions within a system (Smit et al. 2000).

Figure 3: Multi-phased Adaptive Management process. Source: Williams (2011, p.1348).

Adaptive management is a theoretical concept that acts as a useful tool in reality for the learning of and thus conservation management of natural resources, through efforts to enhance adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability. This approach involves processes of learning about the most appropriate methods to carry out adaptations when doing so is necessary. Thus, this concept is of particular use given conditions of uncertainty over such resources in regard to their future supply, reliability and productivity. Williams’ (2011) article offers a comprehensive overview of the theoretical underpinnings of this concept as well as its own framework for its implementation, based on the brief informal definition that adaptive management is “learning to manage by managing to learn” (Pahl-Wostl, 2006, p.52). Given that uncertainty involves a lack of knowledge upon a particular water resource system, the commitment to learning offered by adaptive management theory is beneficial for knowledge acquisition, thus understanding the most appropriate methods for mitigating the effects of water-resource uncertainty.

The process of adaptive decision making leading to resource management strategies and outcomes is a multi-phased process (Williams, 2011). The first, being the deliberative phase, which involves formulating a plan regarding the nature of the resource issue and how to engage in managing such an issue. Such elements of this set-up phase focus on stakeholder involvement, resource management objectives, types of management strategies, models for predicting strategy outcomes, and plans for monitoring the effects of the implemented strategy within the resource’s arena. Careful deliberation within each of these elements as to which strategy best suits the resource problem, followed by decision making regarding the cumulative impact of these various elements will highlight an appropriate strategy that can be used to manage a resource facing uncertainty, as well as various potential alternative methods for doing so (Williams, 2011). The intended outcome of this phase, as McLain and Lee (1996) write, is to set-up management as best to “increase knowledge acquisition rates, facilitate information flow among policy actors, and create shared understandings among scientists, policy makers and managers” (p.439). These elements are essential when there is a need for management of an adaptive nature, as this concept is premised on the condition that knowledge of ecosystems and their processes is incomplete, thus a learning-based process significantly aides the management process (Allen & Garmestani, 2015; Walters & Holling, 1990).

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11 The second phase of Williams’ (2011) framework is the iterative phase, which involves making decisions upon the strategies offered during the deliberative phase of adaptive decision making and implementing such decisions into practice. Further key elements of this phase include follow-up monitoring and assessment. These elements are crucial to ensure the approach to resource management is adaptive in its nature, as they act as a mechanism for learning and knowledge-building to take place within the context of the ecological system. Learning and knowledge formation underpin adaptive management theory, as continual processes designed to benefit the knowledge of those involved in resource management over the timeframe of a project is essential in forming management strategies that reduce uncertainty, as well as making adjustments to strategies already implemented which can be altered to increase efficiency (Williams, 2011; Kraus-Polk & Milligan, 2019).

System feedback is an essential process following the iterative phase of adaptive management for translating the knowledge gained throughout the process back into the deliberative/set-up phase, allowing for the methods used during this phase to adapt in response to what has been learned throughout the process. Feedback completes the cycle of the adaptive management process, as represented by Figure.1 (Williams, 2011), which is then replicated numerously over the timeframe of an adaptive management project, each time reformulating various elements, methods and goals based on the new-knowledge gained throughout each stage of the process. The outcome of this process means that resource managers will have learnt the most appropriate methods to mitigate the issues offered by systems vulnerable to uncertainty (Berkes et al. 2000). McLain and Lee (1996) note how the cyclical, multi-phased nature of adaptive management is beneficial in order to ensure that the new knowledge acquired throughout the learning-process is acted upon and thus implemented in order to reduce resource uncertainty. Furthermore, given how processes of climate change can heighten the sense of uncertainty within a resource system, Memarzadeh and Boettiger (2018) outline how this limits the observability and thus monitoring of the environment, which is a significant limitation to a learning-based approach to resource management. Climate change is an external force causing change to resources that can make them increasingly unpredictable, resulting in low accuracy amongst models tracking management effects on such resources (Gillson et al. 2019). Therefore, Kraus-Polk and Milligan (2019) stress the significance of models of climate change trajectory as an integrated factor in a management system that is subject to such external influences.

The case of the Okavango Delta is a prime context for the potential uses of an adaptive approach to water resource management. Given the uncertainty of the delta’s water as a resource, which is exacerbated by the increasing harm caused by changing cycles of flooding and drought resulting from climate change and anthropocentric activities (Mmualefe & Torto, 2011), an adaptive, learning based approach to conservation management is appropriate to gain understanding of the most effective ways to reduce uncertainty and contribute to the sustainability of the delta. Especially given the feasibility issues of costlier technocratic measures. Furthermore, adaptive management offers a useful framework for accessing and including the knowledge systems of local stakeholders, whom have first-hand experience of

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12 the delta and are essential stakeholders in the process of implementing management strategies designed to reduce uncertainty (Grincheva, 2013). Local stakeholders, in particular farmers from local communities of the delta, have an inherent understanding of the resource environment and how to manage the natural resources of the delta, having lived with the presence of floodwater for many years and have engaged in their own adaptive learning processes (Hiwasaki et al., 2014). Therefore, inclusion of the knowledge and reality of locals is an essential part of managing water in a delta facing uncertainty due to the close relationship they have to nature, also meaning they are most effected by threats to the delta and the impacts of management upon such threats. This will be expanded upon in the final concept of this theoretical framework. Therefore, this study will seek to assess how the current management situation in Botswana performs in contrast to this adaptive management framework, including access to management of stakeholders at the local-level. This process will highlight potential inefficiencies and aspects which can be improved upon to benefit the overall management of the delta.

However, in practice adaptive management has faced certain critiques. In particular is the view that an adaptive approach to environmental management often fails to recognise the significance of human-nature relations at the local level and accommodate this within strategies (Kraus-Polk & Milligan, 2019). This critique ascertains that the learning processes of adaptive management are heavily focused upon quantifiable ecological impacts; overlooking social aspects of learning processes such as socio-cultural dimensions in relation to the environment (Stringer et al., 2006). Such dimensions include embodied landscape experiences as well as the role of human-nature affect and values. To overcome this issue, Kraus-Polk and Milligan (2019) posit that the adaptive management approach must improve social learning in order to transition to a “post-normal science, with an emphasis on deliberation, values, a plurality of legitimate perspectives, uncertainty, and the erosion of the monopoly of experts within collective decision-making” (p.4); processes which will better capture qualitative human-nature relations at the local level. Recognising this criticism throughout this study will be pertinent in assessment of the success of adaptive management as a useful framework for managing the Okavango Delta’s uncertain water resources.

2.3 – Local-Level Knowledge and Reality

Whilst the concept of adaptive management is a useful method for knowledge-building processes to benefit decision-making within systems of uncertainty; as mentioned, this framework often overlooks the significance of local-level knowledge and human-nature relations (Kraus-Polk & Milligan, 2019; Stringer et al., 2006). Thus, it is wise to consider local knowledge, reality and the ways in which indigenous communities of the delta formulate their livelihoods alongside flood and drought events; that is to analyse those actually living within a changing ecosystem vulnerable to such events. Furthermore, it is beneficial to gain understanding of how participation in management is accessed by local communities in order to assess whether indigenous knowledge is transferred and thus included in delta management decisions.

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13 The inclusion of traditional knowledge in environmental intervention is essential for a successful process involving local stakeholders that are directly affected by decision-making. Often attempts to combine traditional, local-level knowledge with scientific, ‘western’ knowledge to the benefit of environmental management raises fundamental epistemological tensions (Smith et al., 2017). Grincheva (2013) discusses how mainstream scientific epistemology has a hegemonic power, yet knowledge can be constructed within communities at the local-level in their interaction with their environment. These knowledge systems can be formulated as a product of century-old residence of communities living within an ecosystem, resulting in multi-generational knowledge based on extensive human-environment interaction. Thus, it is important that different systems of knowledge are represented equitably during environmental management (Sutherland et al., 2013). Furthermore, Audefroy and Sánchez (2017) also consider access to adaptation to the effects of climate change at the local-level to be dependent on factors of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Hiwasaki et al. (2013) demonstrates how community resilience within each of these factors is benefitted by approaches integrating traditional forms of knowledge with modern-technological knowledge, further evidence that equitable representation of indigenous epistemology is essential for the success of environmental interventions.

Furthermore, the ontological realities of various stakeholder groups acting within an environmental system creates different interpretations of what adaptation means. Laituri’s (2000) work considers the role of culture at the local-level, and its formative impact upon perspectives of reality. The impact of culture on reality creates specific interpretations in regard to questions such as: what is a flood? And what risks are associated with floods? How these questions are interpreted at the local level dictates responses to environmental changes, thus adaptations (Lavau, 2013). Articles by Few (2003) and Stringer et al. (2009) demonstrate how adaptations in the context of flood events as well as drought events are culturally and socially constructed at the local-level. These articles both emphasise how decisions regarding adaptation to environmental change is a product of intimate human-environment relations, thus a result of ontological reality, as well as epistemology.

In terms of actual adaptation strategies themselves, there is great variance amongst different local-level communities living within different ecosystems. For example, in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, Liao et al. (2016) outlines how communities have undertaken adaptations in the form of building houses on stilts as well as mobility preparedness by constructing footbridges and building boats. Few (2003) discusses how in Malaysia communities have also begun to construct houses on stilts in flood-prone areas, as well as engaging with methods of livelihood diversification. Rashid (2000) discusses how during floods in Dhaka, Bangladesh, communities unite in order to share resources and support one another. Other examples further demonstrate how communities take their own approaches to coping during times of flooding, yet the approaches taken at the local-level are always specific to each locality. This sense of variability demonstrates the inherent lack of generalisability when discussing adaptation strategies at the local level, further emphasising how adaptations are place-specific within the context of local ontologies and epistemologies.

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14 Thus, given the significance of local-level and indigenous epistemologies and ontologies, as well as their impact on adaptations, it is important for delta management stakeholders of the Okavango Delta to make provisions for the inclusion of this knowledge and perspective within management strategies. Thus, knowledge transfer between communities and the government is important, as well as inclusion and access of community members to decision-making processes.

2.4 – Conceptual Scheme

Figure 4

Agriculture is a prominent livelihood amongst rural delta communities worldwide given the water resources that these communities have access to. Agricultural practices within such

Living with Flooding and Drought Environment (delta) Climate Change Adaptive Management Water Resource Uncertainty Changing land- uses upstream Strategies Monitoring Indigenous Delta Communities Stakeholders Models Delta Managers

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15 communities are a product of indigenous epistemologies as well as local realities and culture, formulated by multi-generational existence within a specific ecosystem. However, change to their environment poses a significant threat of uncertainty, particularly when agricultural livelihoods are dependent on a natural water supply offered by floodwater. Thus, an adaptive approach to the management of ecosystems is useful due to its theoretical promise of learning-based management and knowledge acquisition. The outcomes of this process will result in management solutions and strategies that allow for the delta to be managed in a way that mitigates the worst effects posed by uncertainty, whilst allowing for indigenous and local communities to continue living within their environment.

Due to significant changes from the proposal for this research, the original conceptual operationalization table has not been included in this thesis.

2.5 – Research Questions

Given the current threat facing the BOD in terms of water issues affecting flooding cycles, as well as the dependency of the local population on reliable floodwater to accommodate agricultural livelihoods; an approach to delta management that recognises the need for adaptation is important. Thus, the following main research question for this study was adopted:

How is Botswanan’s Okavango Delta being managed in order for the delta’s inhabitants to live with floodwater whilst reducing resource uncertainty?

Given key concepts focusing on resource uncertainty, adaptive delta management, and local knowledge and reality, a comprehensive analysis of this research question will benefit from discussion regarding various sub-questions.

Firstly, the ambiguity surrounding the precise cause of issues facing the delta means that a multitude of approaches to management can be taken. Thus, a sub-question focusing on the specific approach taken by individuals from various government departments involved in delta management and how they formulate these issues within the context of management strategies is pertinent. Henceforth, the following sub-question was adopted:

1. How have management-level stakeholders formulated water resource uncertainty within the Okavango Delta ecosystem?

Next, a sub-question regarding the formation of delta management itself is beneficial for contrast against the adaptive management framework. This process is important for assessment on the current delta management approach offered by government official participants, as adherence to adaptive management principles is important given the water issues within the delta and the need for adaptation to mitigate negative consequences.

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16

2. How have adaptation strategies been devised for local agricultural communities residing around the Okavango Delta to mitigate the effects of water-resource uncertainty?

Finally, given the emphasis on adaptive management as a framework of analysis for the management of the BOD, inclusion of a sub-question focusing on how communities at the local level whom are the recipients of the decisions undertaken by individuals involved in delta management actually live with flooding and drought is important. Understanding how these farmers interact with management strategies in relation to local and indigenous knowledge is useful for the assessment of the efficiency and effectiveness of the management of the delta.

3. How have local-level community members interacted with the adaptation strategies of delta management in their efforts to live with water-related issues?

Collectively, answering these three sub-questions will provide elaborate analysis necessary to allow for a comprehensive discussion and conclusion upon this study’s main research

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17

3 – Methodology

3.1 – Ethnographic Research

This study will adopt an ethnographic research approach, invoking the use of a qualitative methodology. Ethnography’s focus on understanding phenomena within the relations and interactions of communities, with recognition of cultural practices, lends itself to the nature of the issue at hand (Hammersley & Atkinson, 2007; LeCompte & Goetze, 1982). Central to answering the research questions of this study is understanding the day-to-day goings on within indigenous communities as well as farmer practices themselves in relation to their natural context – the delta; as well as in relation to the management strategies designed by individuals from the government to mediate human-nature interactions. Linton and Budds (2014) consider the importance of mobilizing relationality and dialectics when assessing issues associated with water resources. Their study demonstrates the significant role that water can play in shaping a society as it is an essential resource, meaning that one cannot separate water from the society acting upon it; which is often the case of hydrological-science discourses which have removed the processes and relations within human-water systems in favour of more objectivist and positivist approaches (Loftus, 2011; Linton, 2010). Thus, it is important to recognise that in the context of this study, government-level delta managers must consider the relations between the delta’s water and indigenous communities. Therefore, ethnography is a useful approach as it satisfies the need for relational and dialectical thinking in its emphasis on the day-to-day interactions of communities and individuals within their natural environment. Such factors also contribute to ethnography as being a useful approach in regard to political ecology; due to its inquiry upon how nature is appropriated and distributed amongst actors with political motivations, which can often undermine the relations between nature and local-level actors. Thus, ethnography is useful in this case in order to understand the extent to which local and indigenous communities of the Okavango Delta are excluded from management decision-making processes (Harrill, 1999; Bookchin, 1990).

3.2 – Data collection

In line with ethnography, qualitative methods of in-depth interviews and observations were selected as the appropriate methods of data collection. During my time in the field of 7 weeks, I decided to split my time between interviews with government officials and other delta management-level stakeholders first; followed by interviews with local/indigenous community members as well as observations when travelling into agricultural communities whom have first-hand experience of life within an ecosystem effected by change to their water resources from the delta. Based in Maun, the capital of the Ngamiland (North-Western) District, I was able to gain access to various government ministries and departments involved in the management of the delta. This city is an internal migration-hub for this district and others in Northern Botswana, meaning I came into contact with many individuals from indigenous delta communities whom were temporarily based in Maun seeking employment. From Maun, I was able to travel to Sexaxa Village and the town of Shorobe, two local communities in the

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south-18 eastern region of the delta where molapo farming is practiced. These sites were chosen due to their proximity to Maun which meant that I was able to travel to each of these communities within one day. Figure 5 below shows the location of Shorobe to the north-east of Maun – Sexaxa Village is located roughly half-way in between these two localities. Travelling to each of these communities did provide difficulties; Shorobe is 40 kilometres outside of Maun with a limited number of buses making this journey each day. This meant that some time was wasted making the journeys between these two study sites. Furthermore, when in the two study sites, on a couple of occasions language barriers became an issue. Most people I came into contact with spoke a good level of English, however it is still a second-learned language (Setswana is the most commonly spoken language). During one (group) interview in particular with three female farmers from Sexaxa Village, none of the participants spoke much English, so another farmer from the community offered to help translate for me. By using a translator, I felt that moments of what the three participants were discussing may have been lost, but overall, I felt that this group interview was still useful and provided interesting insights.

Figure 5: Map of the Okavango Delta region, Northern Botswana

Source: http://www.worldofmaps.net/en/africa/map-botswana/map-botswana-okavango-delta.htm

In regard to a sampling strategy, I chose to adopt purposive sampling as this method meant that I would choose to interview the participants I deemed most appropriate. Access to participants of all stakeholder-levels benefitted from the ‘snowballing’ effect during my time in Botswana, which is a testament to the friendly and helpful nature of the people there. This was particularly useful when accessing participants from local communities, as establishing a network amongst significant actors such as the village chiefs within these communities made the arrival and access to further participants within the villages far simpler. The first local community I travelled to was Sexaxa Village; I was able to contact the village chief by getting in touch with the village’s community trust website. The chief was then able to provide me with contact

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19 details for another farmer in Shorobe. In regard to access of management-level stakeholders, I decided that the most efficient method of arranging interviews would be to wait in the reception areas of the offices of the various government departments involved in managing the delta. By making my presence and intentions known I was then able to interview officials from the department whom had time for me or arrange meetings for later dates. I found the tactic of ‘opening doors’ to be most productive as I found face-to-face conversation to lead to better progress during my time in Botswana; a number of meetings that I arranged over the phone were rescheduled or forgotten about when I arrived for them in the first few weeks during my time in the field.

Semi-structured interviews were deemed the most appropriate method of collecting interview data. These interviews were conducted on a one-on-one basis when possible, which was all interviews excluding two, and in as quiet and relaxed environment as possible. When I felt appropriate I recorded these interviews, which was generally easier to do so with government participants as these conversations were conducted in offices. When in the local communities, often the interviews were conducted whilst walking between the centre of the village and the molapo farmland closer to the delta outflow rivers, thus recording these conversations was not easy or appropriate. An interview list has been included in the annex section. In terms of observations, I wrote these reports alongside regular field notes, with the aim of highlighting significant occurrences, phenomena or even a key statement that had stuck in my mind mentioned by a participant each day. Observations proved significant during the time I spent in the local community study sites, particularly when being shown around the communities and the molapo fields.

The primary method of data collection, being semi-structured interviews, creates a somewhat limitation in regard to external reliability. Whilst initially planning on proceeding with structured interviews due to a greater sense of replicability, it quickly became evident that this style of interview was too rigid and didn’t fit with the casual, conversational nature of social interaction in Botswana. Thus, semi-structured interviews seemed a more appropriate style in order to fully engage with participants so to obtain information necessary to answer the research questions of this study. However, this raises issues regarding the replicability of such interviews, as the exact interview structure varied with different participants (Bryman, 2012). Whilst I went into the interviews with a list of key topics and essential questions I knew were necessary to discuss, the specific questions and order of topics was left to come up naturally in conversation. Despite this being an issue of external reliability, I felt like it was conducive of data of a higher quality.

It is also important to recognise that ethnographic research does not seek to achieve generalizable results and conclusions. Contrarily, the benefits of ethnography can be found in its commitment to place-specific detailed understandings of phenomena. Thus, in the context of my own research, it is important to recognise that my findings can only be applied to communities of the south-eastern region of the delta – home to the study sites of Sexaxa Village and Shorobe.

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20 Overall, whilst the methods adopted during my study raise certain issues in regard to reliability, I felt they were still the most appropriate methods given the situation and difficulties I experienced in the field, as well as time limitations meaning access to a wider participant-base from a variety of culturally heterogeneous villages was not feasible. Furthermore, acknowledgement and consideration of these issues throughout my final thesis write-up and data analysis will be important to limit the influence of researcher biases and subjectivity.

3.3 – Data Analysis

Given the qualitative nature of ethnographic research and the specific methods adopted by this study; this form of data invokes interpretative analytical methods. Thus, inductive thematic analysis is a useful method to benefit the process of answering this study’s main research questions. This process was carried out by coding all the interview data gathered using Atlas.ti. I devised four main code-groups based on the different aspects of this topic, which were: Delta Management, Ecological Concern, and Local-Level Strategies, as well as a final group focusing on analytical points. Within these individual code-groups were further codes based on recurring topics and noteworthy points that came up during these interviews. A list of these codes can be seen in the annex section.

Once codes were established and applied to the interview transcripts, then cross-referenced with my observation reports, I induced the key themes based on regularity and consistency of the codes. To present these themes in the subsequent empirical chapters, I will include important quotes from the data that offer best examples of aspects of each theme. These quotes will all be noted in verbatim.

3.4 – Ethics & Positionality

Recognising and checking my own positionality prior to my time in the field was an important measure for the context of my research. As a white British male, it was significant to remember the possibility of pre-existing colonial frameworks and hierarchical structures in the country, particularly given British colonial history within Botswana, as well as various geo-political conflicts between Botswana and South Africa’s once-apartheid system (Silve, 2012). Thus, maintaining a sense of reflexivity was useful when in the field, by forcing myself to consider upon my own positionality when interacting with participants (Guillemin & Gillam, 2004). Furthermore, maintaining reflexivity was also important given the inherent researcher biases involved in research, as well as participant biases given interaction with various different stakeholder groups (England, 1994; Morris, 2015). Upon reflection, my own positionality did not significantly impact my time in the field. Generally, the people of Botswana are very welcoming, and I did not feel there were any significantly negative prejudices towards me. In terms of access to participants, the only female participants I interviewed were three farmers in a group interview – all other participants were male. I believe that being a male myself made it difficult to access female farmers in particular, however, gender did not appear to be a factor

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21 relevant for this research, and the few female farmers I were able to interview shared similar views to their male counterparts.

3.5 – Ethical Reflection

Ensuring voluntary participation was relatively straightforward. The first half of my research, interviewing officials from various government departments involved in delta management, meant all participants were involved on a voluntary basis, as they had to opt-in to participate in order for me to speak with them in the first place. Furthermore, prior to the participation with all those at the local-level, I made sure to clearly outline my research and the nature of their participation in my study. Once this had been clarified, I would then ask the participants whether they were happy to go ahead with the interview or not. I also stressed that they could stop the interview if they felt uncomfortable continuing at any point.

I opted to use verbal consent as a method to achieve informed consent, which participants were able to decide upon once they had sufficient knowledge about the nature of their participation and my research. This method was beneficial due to occasional language barriers as not all participants spoke a good level of English, meaning consent forms would have been difficult for participants to understand. However, in hindsight, using consent forms may have been an easier method would I have been able to translate forms into the local Setswana language. In terms of participant safety, interviewees were interviewed where possible by themselves and in a quiet place where no one else would be able to hear the interviews. However, on a couple of occasions it was only possible to do group interviews, which created a difficult dynamic, as participants seemed to answer questions more carefully and with greater consideration, given their peers were in the room. This was problematic for one interview involving two hydrologists from the Department of Water Affairs (DWA), one of which was the manager of the other participant, meaning there was pressure on that participant to answer in a certain way so as to not displease his higher authority as well as come across knowledgeable. Upon reflection, I should have ensured all interviews were conducted on a one-on-one basis to avoid placing that particular participant in a difficult situation, despite certain difficulties at the time including time constraints.

For confidentiality and trust, all I could do was to reassure the participants that their identity and personal information would remain anonymous throughout my research process, meaning trust between us was important. When travelling into the study site villages, I made every effort possible to make prior contact with the village chiefs, whom I would then meet and spend time with before carrying out interviews with any community members. The village chiefs are the highest authority in the villages and looked upon highly by community members, meaning having the trust of this individual generally conditioned trust with other individuals in the community. Building up this relationship with the village chiefs was fairly difficult, time constraints meant that I could not spend too much time making introductions and getting to know one-another, meaning that that the process of building up trust often felt rushed. Therefore, if I had more time in the field this would have benefitted the relationship between

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22 myself and local community members, which would mean a greater sense of trust in me as a researcher and the guarantees I gave them of confidentiality. However, due to the time constraints I was under, I felt like this process was fairly sufficient.

The effect of water uncertainty for dependent communities : a study on adaptation and its management of agricultural communities within the fringes of Botswana's Okavango Delta

The Effect of Water Uncertainty for Dependent

Communities

A Study on Adaptation and its Management of Agricultural

Communities within the fringes of Botswana’s Okavango Delta

The Effect of Water Uncertainty for Dependent

Communities

A Study on Adaptation and its Management of Agricultural

Communities within the fringes of Botswana’s Okavango Delta

Abstract

Acknowledgements

List of Figures:

List of Abbreviations:

Table of Contents

1 – Introduction

2 – Theoretical Framework

3 – Methodology