Renewable Energy in The Netherlands

Renewable Energy in The Netherlands

Dr. Martien Visser

Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen

Partner of the Energy Academy Europe E-mail: b.m.visser@pl.hanze.nl

This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided.

 On Sunday January 11th_{, renewable power production peaked to 20% of total power}

demand. A record for The Netherlands.

 On Saturday January 10th_{, renewable energy production peaked to 6% of the total}

energy demand (excluding feedstock and international shipping and aviation).

 In January 2015, power generation with Solar-PV was 50% higher than in January 2014.  In January 2015, wind power generation was equal to previous year.

 The relatively cold period in the 3rd _{week of January coincided with a lack of wind and}

net power exports. Hence daily power generation by fossil fuels peaked to 350 GWh.  In January 2015, temperatures were slightly higher than normal

January 2015

In a Nutshell

• January data

• Monthly profiles

• Monthly data

• Hourly data

• Miscellaneous

Content

SELECTED ENERGY DATA FROM JANUARY

Final Energy Demand

January 2015

Energy is used for many different purposes. The most important applications are heating/gas (35 TWh) and various forms of transport (27 TWh). Final energy

demand, including sources that do not contribute to national CO2 targets, was 89 TWh. Renewables are given by comparison.

Mar-15 Page 6 35.1 12.6 12.0 10.8 7.4 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy*

January 2015

TWh

Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses

*estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power

Final Energy Demand

January 2015

Final energy demand in January 2015 was similar to that in January 2014. Data on oil consumption are not yet available and have been estimated using

extrapolations of monthly data which are available until October 2014.

Mar-15 Page 7 -0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.8 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy*

January 2015 versus January 2014

TWh

Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses

*estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power

CO2 Emissions

January 2015

In January 2015, the estimated national CO2 emission (excluding power imports, feedstock and international shipping & aviation) was estimated at 16.3 Mton. Slightly higher than in January 2014

(15.7 Mton). Main reason is more national power production, due to less power imports.

Mar-15 Page 8 6.3 3.5 3.4 4.5 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mton CO2 January 2015

*do not contribute to the national CO2 target ** excl. gas & coal to power Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS,

In January 2015 the installed power generation capacity was 24760 MW, significantly lower than in January 2014. Gas capacity decreased , Solar PV (+50%)

and wind capacity (+6%) have increased in 2014.

Power Generation

Capacity

January 2015

Gas Coal Wind Biomass* Solar Nuclear

Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, Windstats, own analyses

Power Supplies

January 2015

In January 2015, power consumption in 2014 was 10.8 TWh, 2% higher than in January 2014. Net imports decreased significantly and coal- and gas-fired production increased. The

average contribution from renewable energy to power demand is estimated 9.6%.

Mar-15 Page 10 5.5 3.2 0.79 0.02 0.26 0.37 0.47 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

NatGas Coal Wind solar-PV Biomass Nuclear Net imports

Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, own analyses

SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES

(using daily data)

Daily power demand shows a typical week-weekend pattern. Daily gas demand (excluding the gas demand for power) is mainly used for the

heating market and affected by ambient temperature.

Mar-15 Page 12

Gas and Power Demand

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Power Gas*

January 2015

GWh

Daily conventional power generation peaked in 19-23 January. This was a week with relative low wind production and low net power imports.

Mar-15 Page 13

Conventional Power

Production

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Coal Gas Nuclear

January 2015

GWh

Daily Wind Production peaked to 53 GWh on January 10th_.

1 GWh is sufficient to provide electricity for a year to 300 households

Mar-15 Page 14

Wind and Solar

Power Production

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Wind Solar-PV

January 2015

GWh

On January 11th _{the contribution of Renewable Power to the total power}

demand peaked to 20%. One day earlier, the contribution of all renewable energy forms to the primary energy demand peaked to 6%. Variations in

renewable power originate mainly from variations in wind.

Mar-15 Page 15

Contribution of

Renewable Energy

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Ren% Power Ren% Prim.

January 2015

SELECTED MONTHLY ENERGY DATA

In January 2015 gas demand (excluding the gas demand for power production) was equal to January 2014. Mar-15 Page 17

Gas Demand

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

In January 2015, gas production was lower than in January 2014. Production is higher than consumption because of gas exports to neighboring countries.

Mar-15 Page 18

Gas Production

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

In January 2015, power demand was 2% higher than in January 2014 Mar-15 Page 19

Power Demand

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: TenneT, CBS, own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

In January 2015, wind power generation was equal to January 2014. The moderate increase in wind capacity was compensated by slightly less wind.

Mar-15 Page 20

Wind Production

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

In January 2015, Solar PV was low, although 50% higher than in January 2014, due to a significant increase of Solar PV capacity.

Mar-15 Page 21

Solar PV Production

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: PolderPV.nl, CertiQ, Klimaatmonitor, KNMI, own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

Estimated power production by coal-fired power stations has increased compared to previous year. Coal demand for power generation is difficult to estimate because the

status of the new coal-fired power stations is not publicly known.

Mar-15 Page 23

Coal-to-Power

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

Estimated power production by gas-fired power stations and cogeneration has increased compared to previous year. Decreased power imports, compared to previous year, have been compensated by an increased use of gas for power.

Mar-15 Page 22

Gas to Power

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

Renewable Energy

All Sources

2015 (and 2014)

In January 2015, total renewable energy (EU norms) was about 2.4 TWh (wind, solar, hydro, biomass, others). The production of renewable energy is slightly lower than in

January 2014, due to a lower contribution from biomass.

Mar-15 Page 24 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014) TWh

In January 2015, the estimated national percentage of renewable energy as fraction of total primary energy demand has been estimated at 3.6% (EU norms). In this

calculation, energy demand covered by electricity imports, feedstock and international shipping and aviation have been neglected.

Mar-15 Page 25

Renewable Energy

Percentage

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

In January 2015, CO2 emissions are higher than in January 2014. The main reason is that less power is imported and thus, more power had to be produced in The Netherlands. Imported

power does not contribute to the national CO2 balance. Contributions from feedstock and international shipping and aviation are not taken into account.

Mar-15 Page 26

CO2 Emissions

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, CE-Delft, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014) Mton

SELECTED HOURLY ENERGY DATA

In January 2015, hourly gas production peaked at 180.000 MW (180 GW) Mar-15 Page 28

Gas Supply

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Gas Production January 2015

Gas import LNG Terminals Production Storages

MWh

On January 24th_{, gas demand in The Netherlands peaked to 100.000 MW (100 GW).}

The peak in gas demand was caused by a combination of relatively low temperatures and high demand of gas from the power sector.

Mar-15 Page 29

Gas Demand

Including Gas-to-Power

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Gas Demand January 2015

Industry LDC points

MWh

Mar-15 Page 30

Gas Imports & Exports

January 2015

In January 2015, gas exports were 63 TWh, equal to 140% of national demand. Gas imports were 17 TWh. Gas exports peaked at January 24th _{to 115.000 MW (115 GW).}

-140000 -120000 -100000 -80000 -60000 -40000 -20000 0 20000 40000

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

January 2015

Gas export Gas import

MWh

Mar-15 Page 31

Power Imports &

Exports

January 2015

In January 2015, power imports were 1.9 TWh, equal to 18% of national demand. Total power exports were 1.4 TWh. Power exports peaked to 4000 MW on January 20th_.

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

January 2015

Power import Power export

MWh

Mar-15 Page 32

Power Generation

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas

MW January 2015

sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are added

In the week of 20-24 January, power generation peaked, due to the net exports that occurred. The majority of the additional power generation has been generated by

In January 2015, wins energy peaked to 2350 MW. Wind power generation varied widely in January.

Mar-15 Page 33

Wind Power

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Wind Power January 2015

MW

At the end of January, power generation by Solar-PV peaked at 250 MW. In January 2014, the peak in Solar-PV power generation was (only) 140 MW. Days in January are

short. Thus, solar production occurs only on a limited amount of hours.

Mar-15 Page 34

Solar PV Power

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Solar Power January 2015

MW

The following set of slides presents for each week in

2015 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-PV

to the total power consumption in The Netherlands.

Mar-15 Page 36

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

5-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Mar-15 Page 37

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Mar-15 Page 38

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Mar-15 Page 39

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

26-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

MISCELLANEOUS

The effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) in January 2015. Mar-15 Page 41

Effective Temperature

January 2015

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

January 2015

Sources: KNMI, own analyses

Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation.

Mar-15 Page 42

Fuel Specific CO2

Emissions

Sources: CE-Delft, own analyses Power Generation

This presentation is based on numerous sources which present data on energy

demand and supply in The Netherlands. These data, however, do not cover the

entire energy system. Some approximations and scaling factors were thus

needed. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of

Applied Science in Groningen and various energy experts in The Netherlands

which gave suggestions for improvements of the methods used. Currently, the

aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the

Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS). It is believed by the author that the

detailed results in this presentation give a fair presentation of the complex

reality of the Dutch energy system.

Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided with

the objective to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are

at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable.

Epilogue

b.m.visser@pl.hanze.nl