Somalia – 2008 food riots
under examination
Interdisciplinary Research Report
Irene Kranendonk, 10263357 Floor Oudendijk , 10262377 Lisanne Soffner, 10152792 Margot Wiggers, 10084657 University of Amsterdam
Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies 04-‐12-‐2013, 6.898 words
ABSTRACT
This report examines the food riots in Somalia in 2008. In 2007 a global food crisis occurred and Somalia, located in the horn of Africa, was one of the most affected countries. However, Somalia was not the only vulnerable country and while some countries were affected by food riots, others were not. This leads to the main question in this research: Which combination of factors contributed to the beginning of the food riots in Somalia in 2008. To fully comprehend this question, insights from earth sciences, human geography and earth sciences need to be combined. After literature research and use of statistics there can be concluded that Somalia is a failed state and that it is likely that being a failed state have played a role in the beginning of the food riots. The second factor that might have played a role with the beginning of the food riot is the poor socio-economic state of Somalia. At last, it can be concluded that there was no drought or other climatic factors contributing to the outbreak of the riots so he domestic agricultural sector of Somalia did not significantly contributed to the outbreak of the food riots.
Table of Content
Introduction 1
Methodology 4
Theoretical Framework 4
Results 10
Discussion 17
Conclusion and recommendations 18
References 20
Attachments 24
Introduction
Our global food economy contains contradictions (obesity being a problem in certain countries, while famines are a problem in others) and is in crisis. This can be illustrated by the “world food crisis” which occurred across the globe in 2007 and 2008. The prices of rice, wheat, corn, soybeans and more food soared (Schneider, 2008). According to the FAO reports (2009), food prices rose by nearly 40 percent in 2007 and increased even further in 2008. The rapid rise in commodity prices (including wheat, maize, meat, soybeans, rice, dairy products, cassava and palm oil) has led to several riots all over the world in at least 37 countries (IFPRI, 2008). These countries are for the most part developing countries such as Haiti, Burkina Faso,
Egypt, Cameroon, Indonesia, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Somalia (IFPRI, 2008). It is our contemporary global food economy itself that is in crisis (Schneider, 2008). Even though the price of food decreases, the food crisis is far from over. Food riots will continue to occur if this issue will not be resolved (Schneider, 2008).
In this research report, the focus will be on the country of Somalia and its food riot in 2008. Located in the horn of Africa, one of the driest and infertile regions of the world, Somalia was one of the most vulnerable countries. However, Somalia is not the only vulnerable country and while some countries were affected by food riots, others were not or to a leaser extend (Berazneva and Lee, 2011).
What exactly triggered food riots in Somalia in 2008? Was it mostly the rise in commodity prices or did other factors, like a failing government play a large part as well? Most previous research on this topic has had their focus on just one discipline or provide an overview for all of the affected countries instead of one particular country ((IFPRI, 2008 (biofuels), Harsch, 2008 (governance), Schneider, 2008 (multiple countries), Lagi et al, 2011 (political instability)). As a result, there has been no interdisciplinary research conducted yet on the multiple causes and their interplay that might have contributed to the food riots in Somalia in 2008. Therefore, in this research an interdisciplinary approach will be used.
The justification for this interdisciplinary approach is that the problem is very complex. As one can see in figure 1 in Attachments, derivedfrom the World Food Program The food riots in Somalia had multiple immediate causes, as well as multiple underlying causes. Our goal in this research is to get a better comprehension of the underlying causes in particular. As you can see, the underlying causes are post-state conflict, social marginalisation and environmental degradation. To fully comprehend these causes, insights from political science, human geography and earth sciences need to be combined. Insights from the earth sciences discipline will be used to make a better understanding of the ecological and biological causes. With an input from the human geography and political sciences field, a better understanding of the political, social and economic causes that triggered the food riots in Somalia in 2008 will be obtained. In addition, it is important to point out that neither earth sciences nor human geography or political sciences on its own have come to a suitable reasoning of the causes and consequences of the food riot in Somalia in 2008. Earth sciences is a natural science and describes the structure and dynamics of natural systems. In the case of the food riots in Somalia in 2008, the earth science field will provide an overview about the way the food
system was organized and the term ‘food security’ (FAO, 2013) will be applied to the case of Somalia. Furthermore, climatic and biological factors that contributed to the rise in commodity prices will be discussed. Political science and human geography are social sciences and try to explain the human world and seek how the human world can be predicted and improved (Repko, 2012). The disciplines used in this report all examine different aspects and it is therefore of great scientific relevance that the different working fields are combined to one suitable interdisciplinary theory.
The main question in this research is: Which combination of factors contributed to the beginning of the food riots in Somalia in 2008?
In order to give a comprehensive answer to the research question, different sub questions were formulated:
1. How did Somalia meet all four dimensions of food security in 2008 (availability, access, utilization and stability)?
2. Which climatic or biological factors contributed to the rise in food prices in Somalia in 2008?
3. What were the characteristics of the political system in Somalia at the time? 4. What were the trends of social and economic indicators in Somalia at the time? 5. What was Somalia’s position in global international relations?
6. What were the short term triggers, the events which caused the situation to escalate? Food prices depend on many factors and are unstable. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that a rise in food prices like in 2007-2008 will ever happen again. By giving an overview of the trends occurring in Somalia during the global food crisis of 2008, a better insight in food riots, its triggers and interaction among disciplines will be gained.
The report will start with the methodology. This will be followed by the theoretical framework where the theoretical background that is essential to understand the 2008 food riots in Somalia is given. The theoretical framework will be followed by the results paragraph. These paragraphs will be analysed and sub conclusions will be drawn. This is followed by a discussion. The result will be closed with the conclusion and further recommendations. At last, a list with used references and attachments is given.
Methodology
The sources of this research are mainly from literature. Due to practical reasons field work cannot be executed. The literature will be complemented with statistics, using sources like the World Bank and the UN databases. All the social sciences will be using the theories and the set methods to research the sub questions and the main question.
Using a data management table, the theories and concepts from the disciplinary reports are combined and then analysed in order to find common ground. This common ground is very important in order to create an interdisciplinary view of the way in which the different factors identified contributed to the food riots in Somalia in 2008. Furthermore, the other way to make the research interdisciplinary is to use redefinition of the concept food security. The definition of food security contains four dimensions, these will be discussed in the theoretical framework. In addition, it will be proposed to expand the term food security with a fifth dimension, governance. A description of this fifth dimension and the justification of expanding food security will be discussed in detail in the theoretical framework.
The last integrative technique that is used is the extension of the Dependency theory. The Dependency theory refers to the concept of “the developing of the underdeveloped”. This concept refers to the reasoning that some countries cannot develop because of the power of wealthier nations have over them and use these power to extract labour and resources from the underdeveloped countries. These can be called quasi-colonial relations. We can also see these quasi-colonial relation in the theory of political realism. This theory says that there is no international order because each country acts in its own interest. And the consequence of this acting according to you interest is resulting in this quasi-colonial relations. From here on, conclusions and recommendations can be set up.
Theoretical Framework
In this section the theories that will be used will be described. Note that most of these theories are monodisciplinary. This is due to the fact that most of the research that is done is on a monodisciplinary level. However, since this is an interdisciplinary research, the theories will be applied. In the results sections these theories will be integrated.
There are two different theories that are applicable on the national policy of Somalia. The first one is on how states become failed ones. This theory has been introduced by Goldstone (2008). He argues that there are several ways for a country to slip into a failing state. First of
all the state has to have legitimacy and effectiveness, both of these are lacking in a failed state. Legitimacy relates the approval of the government from the elite and the rest of society. The concept of effectiveness is based on the decisiveness of the government. Thus, is the state able to make policies and act upon it? As already mentioned above, the failed states neither have legitimacy nor effectiveness. A state can fail through five different pathways, namely:
• By the escalation of communal group conflicts • By state predation
• By regional or guerrilla rebellion • By democratic collapse
• By a succession or reform crisis in an authoritarian state.
In the research it will be determined whether Somalia is a failed state via this theory. Furthermore, when this is the case, the pathway will be identified that Somalia has taken to a failed state and if there is any correlation with the riots in 2008.
The second internal policy theory that can be used is focused on the population and the causes of a conflict and thus of the riot . Since Somalia is in a civil war since 1991 this can be applicable. Hoeffler and Collier (2002) makes a distinction between greed and grievances. Greed refers to the causes that are based on economic situation. This means that the population will riot when they feel that they are deprived in comparison with the elite.
Grievances are incentives of the population to riot that concerns other causes than the
economic ones. Among these are ethnic inequality, high ethnic diversity, and social exclusiveness (Hoeffler and Collier, 2002). It is important to point out that the there is disagreement on which concept takes over in a conflict. Hoeffler and Collier claim that it is the grievances that makes people riot eventually. Keen (2012) argues that it can be both
greeds and grievances. In this research, Keen’s point of view is used, due to practical reasons.
This theory can be applied to the riots.
Besides these political theories, there are additional theories that can be applied on the international politics of Somalia.
The behaviour of states in the international community can be explained by the theory of realism. The main theoretical proposition within the theory of realism is that the international system is anarchic; therefore states always act in their own interest. States compete constant for power and security. Conflicts are unavoidable because of this constant competition for
power and security. This aspect of the theory of realism is also called the balance-of-power theory (Walt, 1998).
The lack of international aid in the period after operation Black Hawk can be explained by the political theory of realism. After it is determined that the theory of realism can be applied, identification of a correlation between the theory of realism and the Somalia food riots in 2008 will follow.
Seamlessly connected with the theory of realism is the Bush doctrine, because the foundation of the doctrine lays in self-interest. After the September 11 attacks the view of president Bush on foreign policy changed dramatically. The Bush doctrine originated. The president’s pre-September 11 views saw the use of force of America as a world leader restricted to defending traditional vital interests (Jervis, 2003). After the September 11 attacks these foreign policy principles changed dramatically because the Bush announced that the United States of America the right had to secure itself against countries that harbour or give aid to terrorist groups (Krauthammer, 2008). The doctrine consists of four elements:
1. A strong belief in the importance of a state’s domestic regime in determining its foreign policy. As a result of this, the United States sees this as a opportune time to transform international politics.
2. The perception that great threats can be defeated only by new and vigorous policies. Preventive war is the most favourite policy to defeat great threats.
3. Willingness to act unilaterally when necessary.
4. An overriding sense that the United States need to assert its primacy in world politics to obtain peace and stability.
Since the September 11 attacks is the American foreign policy consistence with these four elements (Jervis, 2003).
Applying the Bush doctrine to the case of Somalia can help explain the actions of the international community which were triggered by the attacks of September 11 (Lyman and Morrison, 2004)
Lastly it can be said that the Somali never constituted a single coherent territory, having been part of two colonial empires for a long time with other Somali’s living outside the territory boundaries of the colonies (Rotberg, 2002: 10). Multiple examples elsewhere in Africa and Asia show that formal colonies have difficulties establishing an effective and legitimate
government. The first elected, independent, proto-democratic governments are proved to be corrupt, inefficient and incapable of creating any kind of national political culture (Rotberg, 2002: 11). In this report, it will be discussed whether this is also the case in Somalia. If this theory can be applied to Somalia, it will be determined whether a failing government has a correlation with the Somali food riots in 2008.
The next social science that is used in our research is human geography. Questions that are in the domain of human geography require fact-based answers. The questions are about the current socio-economic state of Somalia. The underlying theories from human geography are about the underlying mechanisms that explain why Somalia is developed nor developing. Two theories will be briefly explained, the Dependency Theory and the World-System Theory.
Dependency Theory came up in the 1960’s as a reaction to the Modernization Theory. Modernization Theory is based on the idea that each country can follow the same developing trajectory (Flint & Taylor, 2011). The theory argues that some countries are not developing because the countries all around the world are aligned in a certain structure and this structure is actually preventing certain countries from developing. This is also called the “developing of underdevelopment”, a term founded by Andre Gunder Frank, a very well-known Dependency Theorist, in 1971 (van Nederpelt, 2004). The particular structure that keeps underdeveloped countries from developing is as follows: there are different types of countries in the world. There are countries at the centre of the core, at the periphery of the centre, at the centre of the periphery and at the periphery of the periphery. Between these countries there is a division of labour (Ferraro, 2008). The countries at the centre of the core are the countries that have capital-intensive industries, a lot of power in the world and very advanced technology. The countries in the periphery are the countries that exploit agriculture and deliver resources and cheap labour to the countries at the core. The countries in the centre extract the resources of the countries in the periphery (van Nederpelt, 2004).
In contrast to the Dependency Theory, the World-System Theory, found by Immanuel Wallerstein, describes a three-tier structure in the world. Countries can be in the periphery, in the core or in the semi periphery. Countries at the core have advanced technology and diversified industries. They exploit the countries in the periphery are the countries that deliver cheap resources and labour to the countries in the core. They are exploited. The semi periphery both exploits and is exploited (Flint & Taylor, 2011). However, Wallerstein does states two differences here with Dependency Theory. Dependency Theory assumes that the
exploitation is between countries, but Wallerstein assumes that that’s not the case because of two reasons. First, everyone is exploited, all around the world. This leads to a redistribution of surplus, not of labour or resources. Second, the fact that everyone is exploited, not just periphery countries by the core countries leads to a transnational diversion of labour instead of a international diversion labour (Wallerstein, 1983).
Somalia can be seen as a country in the periphery. Somalia’s primary economic sector is agriculture. There is very little industry. The industry that there is, is for mostly for processing food (CIA, 2013). These are features of a state in the periphery (Ferraro, 2008). However, in the case of Somalia, the Dependency Theory and the World-System Analysis turn out to both not give an adequate explanation (Mohamoud, 2006). At the emergence of the theories, they were welcomed by Africanists who wanted to comprehend the backwardness of the country. Specifically the aspect that the elites of all countries are working together to maintain the distribution of labour was something the Africanists endorsed. However, when in the 1980’s the Dependency Theory was not able to explain the ethnic tensions etc., the theory was slowly banned (Mohamoud, 2006). The Dependency Theory however did open up a discussion that was not possible when the Modernization Theory was the reigning paradigm. The Dependency Theory made it possible that scholars also looked closely to external and economic influences. It made the countries at the core look closely at trade barriers, understanding that the developing of the underdeveloped is a responsibility not merely of a singular country.
Another important factor up for discussion is the organization of the food system in Somalia, this is very important in the way a country handles variation in production, demand and prices. An important theory in the framework of food related issues is food security.
The term food security is defined in the World Food Summit as:
“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit, 1996).
The Food and Agriculture Organization has addressed four dimensions to food security: availability, access, utilization and stability (FAO, 2013) where the concept of food availability refers to the availability of sufficient quantities of food. Assumptions underlying this concept are that food has to be of good quality and from domestic production or import. Food access states that individuals have to have access to resources to obtain enough nutritious food. Utilization points out that the contribution of non-foods in food security are
important as well. Food stability can also refer to the availability and access dimensions of food security because food stability states that an individual, population or household should not be at risk of losing access to adequate food. Loosing access to adequate food can be caused by for example an economic or climatic crisis or seasonal food insecurity. In Eastern Africa, mostly the availability and access to food have been a problem in the 2008 food crisis (FAO, 2006). Food insecurity is an important contributor to food riots as it can create hunger, social instability and unrest in a community.
Concerning the analysis of the food riots from the political and human geographical discipline, the addition of a fifth dimension to food security will be proposed here. This fifth dimension is defined as governance. This arises from the interdisciplinary analysis where the four dimensions currently concerning food security are not sufficient in the case of the food riots in Somalia 2008. This dimension is defined as: the presence of a well-regulating and efficient government or governing body in terms of policies on food related issues. This also includes the regulation of the availability and allocation of food, food aid and access to resources needed to obtain enough qualitative food.
Food production, import and export are important factors in generating food security as this influences the availability and access of food in a country. In Somalia, agricultural production is very important. Not only because of its food supply, but it is also economically beneficial as it creates labour opportunities and generates income for farmers. However, far from all of Somalia’s food demand is met by domestic agricultural production, Somalia is for the most part dependent on the import of goods, which makes the country very vulnerable and dependent on other countries (FAO Somalia, N.D.).
Finally, the biological and climatic factors that might have contributed to the rise in food prices leading to the food riots in Somalia in 2008 need to be discussed because this can be important factors in determining food security. Here, the focus will be on the impact of biological and climatic factors on domestic production as well as the import of food.
Drought is considered as the most common natural cause of crop losses, malnutrition and famine, especially in developing countries. This also accounts for Somalia as it is located in the Horn of Africa, one of the driest regions in the world (FAO Drought Emergency, 2011). Drought affects all four dimensions of food security; availability, stability, access and utilization. (FAO Drought Emergency, 2011). However, prior to the food riots in 2008 there have not been any events of extreme drought or other climatic events leading to a decline in
both domestic food production or production in countries exporting food to Somalia (Headey & Fan, 2010).
Even though the domestic food production in Somalia is declining due to increasing soil erosion, land degradation and salinization this has not significantly contributed to the increase in food prices in 2008 either (Clover, 2010).
The increase in prices of wheat in Somalia might have been partly due to the outbreak of stem rust disease in 2006 in Yemen, Sudan and North-East Africa (Sing et al, 2008). However, it has to be further investigated whether this outbreak in Kenya in 2007 has also spread to the wheat producing area in the south of Somalia, affecting crop yield and increasing wheat prices.
If it was not a biological or climatic event causing the rise in food prices leading to the food riots in 2008, which factors did contribute to the rise in food prices? The United States Department of Agriculture published a report, written by N. Childs and J. Kiawu (2009), discussing the factors behind the rise in rice prices and other commodity products in 2008. In this article it is argued that the increase in rice prices that occurred in late 2007 and early 2008 was not caused by crop failure or tight global rice supply. Instead, the sudden increase in rice prices was caused by a weak dollar, trade restrictions, large panicking importers buying great amounts and record oil prices (Childs & Kiawu, 2009).
Import prices of grain and oilseed have also risen in 2006 and 2007. This was mostly due to a change in diet in Asia from a higher per capita meat and dairy consumption instead of a diet based on rice. In addition, another factor to the boost in grain and oilseed prices have been caused by competition with the use of these crops for biofuels (Childs & Kiawu, 2009). There have been a slight decline in the global production of wheat between 2006 and 2008 because of adverse weather in several growing areas. However, this decline was not significantly enough to explain this rise in prices of wheat. (Childs & Kiawu, 2009).
Results
In this section, the subquestions previously formulated will be answered. The first subquestion covered is: How did Somalia meet all four dimensions of food security in 2008 (availability, access, utilization and stability)?
Food insecurity is an important contributor to food riots as it can create hunger, social instability and unrest in a community which can ultimately lead to food riots. This also
accounts for Somalia where there is food insecurity as not all of the four dimensions of food security are met. These dimensions will be shortly explained next.
Availability refers to the availability of sufficient quantities of food. Food has to be of good quality and from domestic production or imports. The concept of food access states that individuals have to have access to resources to obtain enough nutritious food. Utilization points out that the contribution of foods in food security is important as well. These non-food inputs include adequate diet, clean water availability, sanitation and health care. The concept of food stability can also refer to the availability and access dimensions of food security because food stability states that an individual, population of household should not be at risk of losing access to adequate food. Loosing access to adequate food can be caused by for example an economic or climatic crisis or seasonal food insecurity (FAO, 2010).
The restricted availability and access to food where the two major dimensions of food security lacking in 2008 leading to food insecurity (FAO, 2010).
In addition, because of the high import quantities and the dependency of Somalia on this imported goods, the country is very vulnerable in case of an crisis as the country is unable to produce sufficient amounts of food to meet its domestic demand. This relates to the dimension of stability in terms of food security. Stability in the concept of food security states that an individual, population or household should not be at risk of losing access to adequate food (FAO,2006) which is met when you are so highly dependent on import as Somalia in 2008.
Which climatic or biological factors contributed to the rise in food prices in Somalia in 2008? Another factor influencing stability in terms of food security besides dependence on import, are climatic of biological events. These can be severe and surprising with possible devastating effects on crops and other products. Drought is certainly an important factor influencing agriculture in Somalia. Because of droughts, overall low precipitation, low fertility of the soils and soil erosion and degradation, domestic production in Somalia is not sufficient to meet its food need. However, there has not been a climatic event that caused food instability in Somalia in 2008 neither in any of the countries on which Somalia was dependent for import. One possible biological factor influencing domestic production in Somalia was the outbreak of stem rust disease in Kenya in 2007, which has possibly also spread in Somalia. Stem rust disease causes black, broken stems and shrived grains not suited for consumption. The possible outbreak of stem rust disease in Somalia and its possible effects on domestic food production and in turn food prices need to be further researched (Sing et al, 2008).
The “failed” state theory may shed light on the third subquestion: how was the political system in Somalia organized at the time? As already been mentioned in the international relations part is that Somalia is in a Civil War from 1991, when clans led by warlords declared their independence in the Northern part of Somalia (CIA World Factbook, 2013). In the south the warlords were given carte blanche, meaning that they could do anything they wanted (PBS news, 2007). Since then there has been a Transitional Federal Government (Schneider, 2008). That is when following the scientist, the state Somalia failed and since then there has been a civil war (Foreign Affairs, 2009). Furthermore, since 1991 there has been a famine (CIA World Factbook, 2013).
First of all it will be investigated whether Somalia was a failed state or not. Hence, did it lack efficiency and legitimacy? When following the Index of Economic Freedom (2013), the argument is that is does not have any efficiency. Apart from some taxation, there is only a little done on fiscal policy. Even these taxations cannot be collected sometimes, because of the fact that there are warlords who do that sometimes instead of the government (ibid). Furthermore, the rule of law is very different from the one in the Western countries. The corruption in Somalia is extremely high, which might cause displeasures (IoEF, 2013). This might have contributed to the rioting in 2008. Concerning the legitimacy of Somalia, it is firstly very important to point out that legitimacy is very hard to measure, since it concerns the opinions of different people, meaning that it is subjective. The country does have a central government. However, in practice, it is the warlords and the clans that are in power. This means that many people will not perceive the central government as decisive or capable. The population has tighter bands with their own clan than with the government. However, there is no social policy and there is a high percentage of poverty (CIA World Factbook, 2013). This means that the warlords have to provide for them. Not having a policy, thus lacking efficiency, can automatically result in a lacking legitimacy, since the population does not think well of the central government. The last fact, on the high poverty can also be found in the Human Geography part.
Concluding, it can be stated that Somalia is indeed a failed state since the outbreak of the civil war in 1991 due to the fact that it lacks legitimacy and effectiveness. This means that there is no policy on food on a national level. On a local scale there might be a non-formal policy that is imposed by warlords. However, as will be mentioned in the earth sciences part, Somalia is dependent on the imports from abroad.
The pathway Somalia followed to state failure was the one of state predation. Several warlords declared their independence in 1991 and afterwards, they try to expand their own territory.
The question asked is: What were the trends of social and economic indicators in Somalia at the time? The indicators used in this part are the GDP per capita purchasing power parity, Human Development Index, literacy rate, and gender inequality. These indicators were chosen because they give a sufficient overview of the socio-economic status of Somalia. GDP per capita purchasing power parity is a way to determine what the GDP per capita is but then not according to current foreign exchange rates, but according to a relative comparison. As you can see (figure 1), the GDP per capita is 600 US dollar. This is low. According to the CIA (2012), Somalia ranks the 225st place in the international GDP ranking. There are 229 countries in this list.
The Human Development Index is an index that consists of life expectancy, education and income indicators. Gathering data about the HDI in Somalia is really difficult. The latest data is from 2010, where Somalia is scoring 0.285 on this index. This is based on estimations. This score ranks Somalia on place 165 out of 170 (UNDP, 2012). Again, this is really low.
The Gender Inequality Index is an index that again consists of three indicators, reproductive health, empowerment and economic activity. The index ranges from 1 to 0, 1 being perfectly
Figure 1: GDP - per capita PPP. Indexmundi, 2013 http.://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c+so&v=67.
inequal, and 0 being perfectly equal. Somalia scores 0,773 and thereby ranks 4th lowest in the world (UNDP, 2012). Again, this is really low and worrying. The low scoring on this index also influences the HDI being low.
Also, literacy rates are really low (figure 2). The differences between urban and rural population and between males and females is also staggering.
Overall we can see that the socio-economic status of Somalia is terrible. Somalia is consequently in the lowest ranks, with GDP, HDI, GII and the literacy rate is also low.
The fifth subquestion is: What was Somalia’s position in global international relations? To answer this question the theory of realism and the Bush doctrine will be used.
The theory of realism can be useful in explaining the lack of international aid in the period after the operation Black Hawk. After that it is needed to investigate if the theory of realism can be applied to the United States. According to Mastandunno (1997) the theory of realism can be applied to the US foreign policy after the Cold War. The focus is on the US because the tradition of realism is mostly emphasised by great powers, and after the Cold War the US can be seen as the hegemon power in the international relations (Mastandunno, 1997). Since the independence of Somalia there has been structural involvement of the western world. One of the main things the international community has done is starting a peace operation after the civil war of 1991 to stop the skirmishes and create peaceful and stable Somalia (Battersby & Siracusa, 2009). The international community wanted to create a democratic state, so
Figure 2: Literacy percentage of population in Somalia, 2012. Retrieved from:
http://www.so.undp.org/content/dam/somalia/docs/Project_Documents/Human_Development/Somalia%20Human%20Develop ment%20Report%202012.pdf
appeasement had to be established, but it became clear that the current president at that time, Mohammed Farrah Aidid, would not cooperate with the United Nations that is why the international community wanted him arrested (UN, 1996). The US took the lead as hegemon and on 3 and 4 October there was a big fight between the US military forces, supported by the UN and Somali militiamen loyal to the self-proclaimed president Mohammed Farrah Aidid. This fight is now also known as Black Hawk Down, was executed by the US and resulted in a complete failure (Borgman et al., 2007). After the failing intervention in Somalia, it became clear that intervening would only cause harm to the intervening countries and Somalia would not disturb the balance of power. Interfering would only cause harm to the US and Somalia was not a threat anymore. The fact that states always act in their own interests and Somalia would not disturb the current balance of power, did the US decide to stop the interference in Somalia (Walt, 1998).
Now the international relations of Somalia are partly explained, but the Bush doctrine explains the start of interference that was triggered by the attacks of September 11 (Lyman & Morrison, 2004). After September 11, the US government saw the Horn of Africa as a possible new haven for al Qaeda operations, because Afghanistan was not an option anymore for the terrorist group. The US government recognized the need to go after the al Qaeda infrastructure in the horn of Africa. To prevent Somalia from becoming a second Afghanistan, the US government overcame her fear for Somalia after the failed intervention in 1993 and started intervening again (Lyman & Morrison, 2004: 78).
Why the international community decided to support Somalia in rebuilding their political and economic systems cannot clearly be explained by political theories. However, it might be the fact that the global food crisis caused more turbulence in the countries around Somalia, which made the whole region instable. The international community might not have seen instable Somalia as a threat for their national security, but might saw a whole instable region in Africa as a threat. The instability had to be stabilized for the national interest of countries and that might be the reason for the interference in Somalia after 2008.
Lastly, there can be concluded that due the years of suppression the Somali were not capable of organizing a functioning government. Somalia was a colony until 1960, and this defined the international relations for the country during the 2008 food riots. Somali never constituted a single coherent territory, having been part of two colonial empires for a long time with other Somali’s living outside the territory boundaries of the colonies (Rotberg,
2002). The Somali people had lived in an essentially stateless society, because of their vision of unity they rushed forward into indecency without questioning of a thought of how their government should be organized. This resulted in a very corrupt and inefficient government first elected government and eventually the state of Somalia failed (Rotberg, 2002). When you can call a state a failed state, is described above in the theoretical framework section about national policy.
So far, all of the questions focused on the long-term factors contributing to the outbreak of food riots. However, there must have been some short-term triggers ultimately causing the situation to escalate. According to Berazneva (2013), the trigger that eventually escalated the food riots of 2008 in Somalia is the roaring food prices due to the global food crisis. This food crisis was initiated by the speculation of commodities. Usually, these speculations occur in the Western countries, thus the first World in the Dependency theory(Zembla, 2011). Somalia and other African countries are not resilient enough to be able to sustain these fluctuations in the food prices. Hence, the governments in the African countries could not guarantee a sustainable food security because Somalia is a failed state. Moreover, the population did not have availability of food or had a limited access to food. Specifying this to Somalia, the population might have rioted, because of the two implications, the first being that Somalia it is a failed state and the second is that it had a poor socio-economic standard. Thus, this was caused by greed and not grievances.
In this report we have used a lot of different theories. Figure three shows the interaction between the results.
As seen in figure three lays the foundation of this research within two theories: the food security and failed state theory. The dependency theory and theory of realism were also necessary, but these theories were more important for background information and led the research toward the theories of food security and failed state.
Discussion
In the paragraph above, the results are described. However, it is important to note the issues that were ignored in the research. In addition, in this section some of the issues are noted that may have constrained the research, and thus may have influenced its outcomes.
First of all, it became clear during the research that there is far less similarity between the food riots in Somalia in 2008 and food riots in other countries than previously expected. Somalia being a failed state causes the country to differ too much from other countries, so the obtained knowledge of our research cannot be applied to other cases to counter or prevent food riots.
Second, the use of the theory of realism is a choice. In the political science there are multiple so-called “eternal debates”. It is the task of a political scientist to find the best explanation for a certain phenomenon. However, most phenomena can only be explained by using a combination of two or more schools of thought like a combination of realism and liberalism. By only using the theory of realism in the international relation part, it could be that the outcomes of this investigation are too short sighted. In further research there should be
Figure 3: result interaction
investigated if other schools of thought can also be applied to the Somalia 2008 food riots case.
Furthermore, it is clearly stated in this report, that no biological of climatic factors have had an significant impact on domestic production, as well as the import of commodities, and thereby not influencing price rises. However, the boundaries of scientific research concerning these disciplines in this research need to be discussed. At first, as stated before, more research is needed to be able to fully exclude the possible effects of the outbreak of stem rust disease in Somalia in 2007. Currently, no data is available on this particular case. Second, the basis of this study are published literature reports. The conclusions made are based on these reports which causes this research to be dependent on previously conducted research and published reports. Consequently, this report might lack information just because it is not researched or published yet. For instance, there are no significant climatic factors identified in literature that have significantly contributed to the food crisis in 2008 in Somalia. However, this does not necessarily exclude the possibility of such an event occurring.
Conclusion and recommendations
In this section, several conclusions will be drawn and recommendations will be given concerning the food riot in Somalia. This is because the situation in Somalia is still fragile. However, these recommendations are not addressed to the Somali government, since the country is a failed state. These will be addressed to other scientist and the global community. However, first of all, some conclusions will be drawn. Our main question was:
Which combination of factors contributed to the beginning of the food riots in Somalia in 2008?
Following this research, it is concluded that the fact that Somalia is a failed state is likely to have played a role in the beginning of the food riot because it lacks legitimacy and effectiveness. Meaning that the government of Somalia is non-decisive. Moreover, it does not have any policy on food, but only on raising taxes. The state of Somalia is even worse, because of the ongoing Civil war between warlords.
The second factor that might have played a role with the beginning of the food riot is the poor socio-economic state of Somalia. After doing the socio-economic survey, there can be learned that the state of Somalia is almost the lowest in the entire world. This can be related to the non-decisive government of Somalia, that does not provide any governance.
At last, it can be concluded that there was no drought or other climatic factors contributing to the outbreak of the riots. The fact is, however, that Somalia has an underdeveloped agricultural sector and is highly dependent on the import of commodities. Because of the lack of domestic production, the domestic agricultural sector of Somalia did not significantly contributed to the outbreak of the food riots. In fact, the lack of availability and accessibility in terms of food security were caused by its dependence on imported food.
In addition, during this report it is considered that the four dimensions (availability, accessibility, stability, utilization) concerning the term food security established by The Food and Agriculture Organization in 2013, are not sufficient in the case of the Somali food riots in 2008. Here, it is proposed to expand food security by means of a fifth dimension, governance. This dimension will be stated as: the presence of a well-regulating and efficient government or governing body in terms of policies on food related issues. This also includes the regulation of the availability and allocation of food, food aid and access to resources needed to obtain enough qualitative food.
The justification of adding a fifth dimension to food security arises from this research in which it has become clear that the main contributor to food insecurity was a lack of governance. There is need for a fifth dimension because only implementing governance in another dimension is not sufficient to clarify its importance and influence in the case of Somalia in 2008.
Applying the renewed term of food security to the case of the food riots in Somalia 2008 following the political and human geographical analysis, it is concluded that besides availability and access, Somalia also lacked governance in terms of food security in the case of the 2008 food riots.
The short term cause for the Somali population to riot was the rise in food prices in 2008. This correlated with the long-term causes of the food riot, such as the productivity of the domestic agricultural sector. Their disability to cope with this sudden rise in food prices is caused by their bad socio-economic state (Breazneva, 2011). Their socio-economic state categorizes them as an undeveloped country. Why some countries are not developing is explained by the Dependency theory.
As mentioned before, we will end with some recommendations to our fellow scientists. There needs to be more empirical research on food crises in general and the poignant situation of
countries like Somalia in particular. It would be very helpful if there would be knowledge on how to prevent a global food crisis from spiraling out of control and becoming a local famine with rioting as a result. Then, we would also like to use this report as a serious request to the international community to take action on the terrible situation in Somalia. After all, one cannot pull oneself out of a swamp of social, political, economic and agricultural misery.
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Attachments
Figure 1. Somalia Integrated Phase Classification Map. Rural, Urban and IDP populations. Projections to the end of June ‘08. (WFP, 2008).
