A Shot in the Dark
Deep Sea Mining in Papua New Guinea, a Policy
Document to Prevent Potential Socio-ecological Impacts
Authors: Mirte Steenkamp 10785027, Roos van Wees 10736441, Michael de Jonge 10220267 & Stijn de Keijzer 10798692
Course: Interdisciplinary Project Teacher: Jaap Rothuizen & Alison Gilbert
Date: 31/05/17 Words: 7496
Abstract
Since mines are depleting on land, the search for alternatives to find scarce resources such as copper and zinc becomes more important. A relatively new alternative is deep-sea mining (DSM). As resources become more scarce and prices increase, deep-sea mining becomes more economically feasible. Papua New Guinea (PNG) will be the target area of the research, mainly because a DSM company Nautilus Minerals, plays a big role in this niche and has future plans to extract minerals from the seafloor of PNG. The goal of this research is to make a policy document concerning the current status and the problems involving social, environmental, geographic and economic issues. To find the best mining locations to prevent or mitigate the impacts on environment and socio-economics. This research also looks at the possibilities and threats through a SWOT-analysis for planned DSM-projects in PNG by the mining company. With this SWOT-analysis policy-makers can be more aware and informed in decision-making involving DSM in PNG.
1. Introduction
With an increasing world population and fast developing economies in China and India, the hunger for resources has never been stronger. The article of Cohen (2007) stresses the possibility that phosphorus, zinc, copper, and nickel will run out in the near future. As reserves are depleting on the land, the search has switched to the deep-sea. This is more than 1000 m below the sea surface (Glover & Smith, 2003). Where high-grade Seafloor Massive Sulfides (SMS) deposits have been located, in the sea near PNG. These contain soon-to-be scarce metals like copper and zinc (MPI, 2010). The new way of mining raises a lot of questions and uncertainties, such as: how will it influence aquatic ecosystems? How will people in surrounding areas be affected? And is it economically feasible? It is hard to answer these questions, because there is a lack of experience about mining underwater. Therefore the title of the research is “A Shot in the Dark”, not only because mining will impact the dark ocean floor, but also because DSM has never been done before, and deep-sea ecosystems are still barely understood (Pante et al., 2012). So making predictions about possible impacts comes with a high uncertainty. However, the Canadian mining company Nautilus Minerals, certainly seems to think it is feasible, as it is taking the leading steps in endorsing deep sea mining.
When the multinational BHP started with terrestrial gold mining in PNG, it led to one of the “worst environmental disasters caused by humans” (Burton, 1999). So it is understandable that most people of PNG are against the arrival of another multinational mining company (PNG Mine Watch, 2016). Not only civilians raised concerns, also scientists that think that DSM could pose a major threat to marine ecosystems (Halfar & Fujita, 2007). Despite the protest of locals and experts, the ship to deploy the mining machines is now being built in China, and will set sail to PNG in 2018 (Fairley, 2015). What if DSM will lead to another disaster? To prevent this, it is essential to answer the main question of this research: “Which Solwara locations of Nautilus Minerals can best be used to minimize the potential
socio-ecological impacts of deep-sea mining in Papua New Guinea together with maximizing economic feasibility?”
This paper is intended to be a policy document to the government of PNG, with the aim of finding the best locations to prevent possible impacts on life in the sea and on the land. It is an interdisciplinary research, because DSM potentially impacts ecological, as well as social communities. Moreover, it influences geological processes on the ocean floor, and the costs and profits to be made with mining covers the field of economy. The research group consists of people from the four most relevant disciplines; ecology, earth sciences, human geography and economy. The paper will start by explaining the theories from all the different fields considering DSM in PNG, then it will be discussed where the disciplines overlap, and which methods will be used. The results are given in a SWOT-analysis in order to integrate the findings of these different fields. Next, recommendations, a discussion and conclusion are given, which will shed light on the dangers of DSM in PNG.
2. Theoretical framework
The main theories are summarized in the data management table in Appendix A, but this chapter will explain how they overlap between the disciplines.
2.1 Integration of concepts
By laying the concepts of all the different disciplines together, it became possible to see which are related to each other. Economy seems to be highly related to geology, because the amount and type of minerals, and the depth of which to extract them, influences the costs and the profits to be made. Geology is also closely related to ecology, since the survival of vent species depends on the type and distribution of geological features. Ecology is connected to human geography, because it provides ecosystem services, such as fish stocks and spiritual values.
Surprisingly, the concepts used in ecology turned out to be comparable to the concepts used in social sciences. In ecology the concept of resilience can be used in two ways (Figure 1); ‘engineering resilience’ which focuses on the recoverability of the system and the time it takes to recover after a disturbance (Miller et al., 2010). ‘Ecological resilience’ is the amount of disturbance the system can take without reaching a threshold that will change the system into a different state (Griffiths & Philippot, 2012). Or it could disintegrate all together, just like is the case with ‘social disintegration’ when bonds between parts become weaker and the system falls apart in smaller parts. There is no name for this in ecological sciences, so
‘ecological disintegration’ has been made as a new concept.
Sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability are the main concepts used with resilience (Miller et al., 2010). Sensitivity (the inverse of resistance) is the extent that a system will respond when there is a change in conditions. Adaptability is to which degree modifications can be made in the system. Vulnerability is depended on both of these concepts, as it is the degree to which change may damage the system. Resilience is related to vulnerability; a system with a high vulnerability has a lower resilience, and a system with a high resilience a lower
vulnerability (Miller et al., 2010). These concepts are referring to ecological communities with “systems”, however social communities are also systems, they are also vulnerable, sensitive and can adapt. Adaptability depends on the actors that can influence the system (Walker et al., 2004). It means the way humans can deal with change in their environment by learning, observing and modifying their interactions (Folke et al., 2004). In ecology, it relies on species richness, the more different species, the higher chance that some are able to adapt to the change. On the contrary, a higher diversity of people, could lead to a lower
adaptability. This has been seen with the gold mining in PNG, where the high diversity of local communities led to an unequal amount of change due to the low communication between them.
Moreover, even measures taken after the gold mining disaster to can be associated to the measures that will be taken with the deep-sea organisms. Like aiding resettlement (although it is called recolonization in ecology), compensation for land (the proposed recruitment areas), the adequacy of these new housing facilities (the recruitment area should be similar to the destroyed area) and the ties to the land (Roche & Bice, 2013). The latter will not mean what type of cultural values the vent species have for their particular vent, but maybe how
physically attached they are to that place, that destroying their vent can not be compensated in any way.
2.2 Integrated framework and complexity
To create a better understanding of where the disciplines overlap, an integrated concept map has been made (Figure 2). It also displays the complexity of the problem, even this sizeable map does not demonstrate all the concepts that are relevant to the research problem. Many concepts influence multiple other concepts, and the magnitude of this influence, depends again on other concepts that are again related to different concepts.
Simply by counting the amount of relations (arrows) of each concept, it becomes clear which concepts are the most important. Disturbance (8 arrows), social resilience (7), ecological resilience (including engineering resilience) (7), vulnerability (6) and economic feasibility of DSM (6). So, these parts of the system will get the most attention during this research, because they are the key stones of the research problem.
Disturbance, is mainly the impact on the deep-sea ecosystem, so there should be looked for a way to minimize this. Social resilience depends on how the fishery is affected, but also their power, adaptability and job opportunities offered by Nautilus. Ecological/engineering
resilience depends on sensitivity, adaptability, transformability and persistence, so these aspects should be analyzed at the Solwara location to make sure if they can survive the disturbance. Economic feasibility of DSM mining, can also be seen as the profits that are made by Nautilus. This depends on the type of equipment they use, the minerals they can extract and the costs of employing locals. The vulnerability of the system depends on the socio-ecological resilience, but also the economic feasibility is vulnerable, but then to market fluctuations. The price and scarcity of minerals that are extracted is important to analyse the profitability of DSM. The minerals that are present, and the type of socio-ecological
communities that are involved, differs per mining location. Therefore, this research will make a comparison between solwara locations considering all these relevant concepts. In order to examine which mining sites contain the most advantages in all disciplines, and which contain the least.
3. Study area
3.1 The science of hydrothermal vents
3.1.1 Geography and tectonics of Manus Basin
Not every seafloor contains valuable deposits ready to mine, there are several geological factors that determine the availability and accessibility of valuable deposits. Baker, German and Elderfield (1995) did research on the locations of polymetallic massive sulfide deposits at the modern seafloor and on his map. These volcanogenic massive sulfide ore deposits (VMS) are found in several geological environments on the seafloor. On spreading mid-ocean ridges that spread fast, intermediate and slow, in sedimented rifts, in back- arcs and in the calderas of arc volcanoes in deep waters (Binns & Scott, 1993).
In PNG SMS are found in the Manus Basin (back-arc) and the Woodlark Basin (seafloor spreading ridge) both in the Bismarck Sea (Herzig & Hannington, 1995). In the same figure can be seen that the Manus Basin has several hydrothermal sites. On these sites massive sulphide chimneys have been discovered, which are rich in valuable metals as Au, Cu, Zn and Ag (Both et al., 1986; Binns & Scott, 1993; Binns et al., 2002a). This explains the interest of deep sea mining companies as Nautilus Minerals for the Manus Basin (Birney, 2006). This interest led to permission of the government of PNG to pursue deep sea mining in several area of the Manus Basin (see Appendix B.1).
The basin is formed by the Solomon Sea plate that subducts at the New Britain trench along the northeast or northwest direction (Binns, 1993). This back-arc basin is behind the volcanic arc and is formed by the pull of the subduction of the oceanic crust. The Manus Basin is 80 by 100 km width and has a depth up to 2500 metres, it is mainly basaltic crust formed 5 million years ago (Binns, 1995).
Figure 3. Map of tectonics in Bismarck sea (Herzig & Hannington, 1995).
Based on a global geomorphological feature map of Harris, Macmillan-Lawler, Rupp and Baker (2014) the map in Appendix B.2 shows the geomorphological features present in the areas licensed by Nautilus Minerals. From this map can be seen that 9 geomorphological features will come in contact with the deep sea mining. Within the Manus Basin are lower lying plains which are connected to the spreading ridge, the SMS are often found in these areas (Gille, Metzger & Tokmakian, 2004; Harris et al., 2014). Furthermore Harris et al., (2014) stated that 87.8% of the known and predicted hydrothermal vents lie in the rift valley and spreading ridge features. These two features are are abundantly present in the licensed area of Nautilus Minerals. The escarpments and canyons will be hard to access due to steep slopes and likely be avoided by Nautilus Minerals (Birney et al., 2006; Harris et al., 2014;). 3.1.2 Hydrothermal vent formation & SMS formation
It is hard to explain why there are hydrothermal active areas in the Manus Basin. There is evidence that the impact craters may have produced hydrothermal systems, this because the impact was capable of melting the country rocks and this melt can act as a heat source for these systems (Colín-García et al., 2016). Research of Kirsimäe and Osinski (2012) even found evidence for 60 out of 181 hydrothermal systems in craters that have been impact induced (as cited in Colín-García et al., 2016). The combination of the impact of
extraterrestrial and the the thin seafloor crust due to the spreading ridge could explain the hydrothermal vents.
Active hydrothermal vents consist ‘black smoker’ chimneys, which are created from cracks in the sea floor of the basin. The cracks have flow in of cold water and mineral rich water flows out, this initial cold seawater makes contact with the hot rocks or magma beneath the crack and boils to the surface (Hannington et al., 1995). The mix between the 400˚C seawater with the cold 2˚C seawater at low pH (3-5), allows iron sulfides, hydrogen, methane,
manganese, zinc, copper, lead, cobalt and aluminum to precipitate, this creates a rapid nucleation driving a suspension resembling black smoke (Birney, 2006; Herzig &
Hannington, 1995). This whole process creates SMS on the seafloor of the Manus Basin with ore that contains more than 50% sulfide minerals (Binns, 2003). In the same way also ‘white smokers’ exist, however they are further away from the heat source which makes the
seawater more dominating than the magmatic water resulting in a temperature around the 40 to 75 ˚C with an high pH (9-8), therefore the fluid is rich of calcium producing deposits of sulfate and carbonate and white smoke (Colín-García et al., 2016). White smokers can grow to 60 meters and black smokers grow only 10-20 meters, ultimately oxidation will cause the chimney to fall what will seal the crack (Birney, 2006). This will make a layer around the vents with accumulating deposits (Figure 4).
The basin has currently three known hydrothermal zones with a black-smoker chimney structure: PACMANUS (Papua New Guinea-Australia-Canada-Manus), SuSu Knolls and DESMOS (Birney et al., 2006) (Figure 3).
Figure 4.
Hydrothermal vent system (Hannington et al., 1995).
3.1.3 Hydrothermal vent ecosystems
Rare aquatic species can be found around hydrothermal vents (Vanreusel et al., 2016) that can survive without sunlight, with extreme changes in temperature, high pressure and strong concentrations of chemicals (Birney et al., 2006). Hydrothermal vent ecosystems have a higher productivity than most common deep-sea habitats (Glover & Smith, 2003). They are very resilient because they manage to survive in an environment with a high variability, such as the change in activity of vents (Boschen et al., 2016). Active vents have a greater
biodiversity and different types of species than inactive vents. It is hard to distinguish between active and inactive vent fields, there seems to be a continuum (Birney et al., 2006). When an active vent becomes inactive, the energy source for the chemotrophic bacteria is gone, and the organisms have to colonize a new vent. This happens mainly by larvae, but also by immigration of adult species (Boschen et al.,, 2013). However, there is still uncertainty about the vulnerability of larvae to mining disturbance (Lee & Van Dover, 2015). At Solwara 1, the black snail (I. nautilei) is likely to recover from the mining disturbance (Thaler et al., 2011). Considering its great dispersal capabilities and high growth rates (Van Dover, 2000). 3.2 Technology
The following stages are included in the proposed technology: sampling and drilling for exploration, extraction of SMS with a drum cutter and transport of the sediment through a riser pipe to the ship where the water is removed. The wastewater will be pumped back to the ocean floor where it is dumped. Finally, the ore is placed on a transport ship that sets off to the harbor of port Rabaul (OBG, 2012). The fact that all the machines and techniques are new, will mean that unforeseen failures are more likely to happen, than with common used machines. What if the riser pipe leaks? It will possibly create a subsurface plume. The magnitude of the plume will depend on the height of the leak (Birney et al., 2016). If it is indeed true that plumes close to the surface have the largest impacts, it could result in mortality in the upper sea layer. So it is essential that the technology used is tested and that there are materials and specialists on board to act fast in the case of an emergency. Being able to monitor such a leak, is therefore also crucial. The machines are visualized in Figure 5.
Figure 5. The three ROVs (Nautilus Minerals, 2015).
After assessing the size of the ore deposit reserve by drilling, extraction can begin. The seafloor proposes challenges first it is covered in loose materials such as the fallen chimney, deposition layers and solid fused minerals. Secondly due to tectonic activity the seafloor is
rough, which makes it hard to access the deposits (Birney et al., 2006). These so called SMS extraction devices consist of a ‘drive body’, ‘ore crusher’ and an ‘ore lifter’. The drive body is a ROV (Remotely Operated Vehicle) that makes sure the first layer is cut and makes routes to operate on (Birney et al., 2006; Hayden, 2004). The auxiliary cutter creates benches and a smooth work environment for the other ROVs(Figure 5). The solid sulfide rocks underneath the loose material requires cutter heads and extra application of weight to crush them, this will be done by the bulk cutter (Birney et al., 2006; Nautilus Minerals, 2015). The collecting machine will collect all the cut material dropped by the auxiliary and bulk cutter. After cutting the SMS it will be lifted in a pipeline to the production support vessel (Birney, 2006) 3.2.1 Transportation and tailings
Nautilus Minerals will be transporting the massive sulfide ore with ships and the choice between a coastal processing facility or using facilities of terrestrial mines (Birney et al., 2006). Methods processing massive sulfide deposits only recover 40% and there will be tons of unprocessed rock (Birney et al., 2006). Research of Ramirez-LLodra et al. (2015) shows that the mine tailings can be done in submarine or deep sea, however in PNG the the DST (deep sea tailing) is already being used for the Lihir and Misima mines and will be the most feasible option for the deep sea mines (Shimmield, Black, Howe, Hughes & Sherwin, 2010). 3.2.2 Solwara locations
Nineteen thermal vent systems that have been found in the Bismarck sea (Figure 6). These have been given the names: Solwara 1 until Solwara 19. The idea is to mine about three years at Solwara 1, and then to move on to one of the other Solwara’s (OBG, 2012).
3.3 Potential environmental impacts and mitigation measures 3.3.1 Possible ecological impacts
The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) from Nautilus led to a long list of impacts, not only to the benthic community, but also to all other sea depths (Gwyther, 2008b). Boschen et al. (2013) has summarized these potential impacts. This list has been modified by adding the impacts from critics on the EIA (Steiner, 2009) and Van Dover (2007; 2011) (Table 1).
The main environmental impacts are: the direct mining impact that leads to immediate mortality of species and habitat destruction (Birney et al., 2006), sediment plumes that smother benthic communities and clog the mouths of filter feeders and acoustics that could disturb the behaviour of cetaceans. Furthermore, an active vent could become inactive as a result from mining, and disturb the species that live around the vent that depend on the vent fluid. It has been discovered that if hydrothermal vents remain active after mining, the deposits can rebuild and faunal communities could recolonize the vents (Boschen et al., 2013). At Solwara 1 the the chimneys showed remarkably high re-growth (Gwyther, 2008a). However, if the digging occurs in an inactive area, it could activate due to digging, and the benthic community can be heavily impacted. The seabed increases in temperature, leading to the death of clam colonies. This has happened during a drilling operation in a thermal vent system near Japan (Nakajima, 2014) where also the settlement of the sediment plumes from the mining operation killed the surrounding benthic community.
Considering the fishery, the most important impact would be: bioaccumulation from metals released from mining, that could could affect the health of fish stocks higher in the water column (Gwyther, 2008b). Fish are mobile, so fishery far from DSM could also be impacted. However, since the chance of catching contaminated fish decreases with distance from the mining location, it would be safer to avoid mining close to fishery. Mining close to the coast could form a risk because it is close to fishing areas, but also because it is closer to critically endangered coral species (Carpenter et al., 2008). The coral could be strongly impacted in case one of the shuttle barges or bulk carriers drift near the coast in heavy weather, and spill their cargo of oil and toxic metals (Steiner, 2009).
Not only the mining itself can influence marine life, there is also pollution from deep-sea waste disposal (DSTP) of terrestrial mines (Hughes et al., 2015) which have severe impacts on deep-sea communities. DSTP is now happening for decades from the shores of Lihir and Misima in PNG. Although this is not close to the Solwara’s, the research of Hughes et al. (2015) shows that deep-sea organisms are more vulnerable than was previously expected, and that there are possibly other anthropogenic factors in play that impact the communities at thousands of meters below the sea surface. Even climate change could have a large impact, due to the extreme susceptibility of the deep-sea ecosystem to changes in the carbon flux (Hannides & Smith, 2003).
3.3.2 Measures to mitigate impacts
Enhancing recolonization of destroyed areas will likely be the main focus (Boschen et al., 2013). It is possible to look at vents as islands, so the same rules for island species richness (MacArthur & Wilson, 1967) could apply. Which means that the closer and bigger an island (vent) is to another island (vent), the higher the chance of immigration and the lower the chance of species extinction. Therefore it could help to keep a large vents in the mining area untouched and ensure that they are equally distributed, so that they can act as ‘stepping stones’ for the immigrating species. This, together with a recruitment zone that is protected
from mining and has similar environmental characteristics, would offer the best chance of survival for the deep-sea creatures.
Another important aspect is to minimize the toxicity, size and concentration of sediment plumes (Boschen et al., 2013). The efficiency of retrieving minerals from the collected water should be high, this is not only good for the profits, but also in decreasing the toxicity of the plume. To monitor the impacts of DSM it is advised to incorporate an observatory (Figure 7) that registers changes in variables such as water quality. Certain rules could be made to ensure the health of the sea organisms. For example, when during a measurement the concentration of one of the chemicals turns out to be too high, the mining should be halted.
Figure 7. Monitoring program (Yamamoto et al., 2016). 3.4 The potential social impacts
Potential social impacts are different from those encountered in land-based mining activities. Being the first mining operation of this type they are also difficult to predict. Impacts are likely to be less tangible than those already well-documented elsewhere in PNG. Coastal peoples in PNG feel substantial stewardship for the marine environment. They regard the seas as a holistic entity with considerable spiritual value (Steiner, 2009). Many PNG people
express a strong spiritual connection to all components of the ocean environment, including deep-sea hydrothermal vent systems even though they may never have seen them. This suggests that social impacts of the proposed mining activities will extend beyond monetary valuation and inferred tenure of marine resources. Although coastal peoples in PNG may not live at or directly utilize the offshore mine site should it should not be interpreted to mean that they do not value and/or exert ownership and tenure over such areas.
3.4.1 Social communities closest to mining sites
Communities and villages living within the mining area are located in New Ireland and New Britain. On Figure 8 we can see the villages in New Ireland and New Britain. The villages
are the red dots on the map. As we can see, a lot of the villages are located on the coast. The villages closest to the mining area are Dampet, Messi- Labu, Kontu, Lamasalang. Even though most villages were made aware of the Solwara 1 mine, other east coast villages were not made fully aware of the Solwara mine and of the returns and long-term negative effects (The National, 2014). Thirty-two percent of the population are in paid employment and 68% live a subsistence lifestyle, mainly by selling local produce (betel nut, food crops, fish, etc.) at local markets. Only 15% of the land is arable. Many also depend on the sea for their
livelihood.
Figure 8. Location of communities in PNG (Townsvillemap ArcGIS online, 2015). 3.4.2 Dependence and possible impacts on fishery
Papua New Guinea’s 5957 million square kilometer exclusive Economic Zone is one of the largest marine jurisdictional zones in the whole Pacific and is also one of the richest in fisheries resources (High Commission of Papua New Guinea, 2001). The fisheries zone includes an extended reef system, numerous islands and an extensive coastline. These create huge opportunities but also present an enormous challenge for monitoring and control. The total market value of PNG catch is estimated at K350 to K400 million on average although information on the true value of artisanal fisheries is difficult to obtain and cyclical factors and commodity price movements, especially tuna, cause huge value swings from year to year (NFA, 2017).
Figure 9. Fishery products export values 2004-2006 (NFA, 2017).
Generally, the total value of fisheries exports from the periods 2000-2006 has increased significantly. This has been the case because of the prudent management and fiscal approach that NFA has pursued and a stabled economy. The year 2005 was historic for NFA has exports hit close to K300 million. The fishing industry has been very vibrant in the past years and is experiencing a robust growth. In the years leading to 1999, the fisheries sector alone has been contributing less than 1% to the annual national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the wake of the millennium, exports has been picking up, employment increased, more on-shore development and initiatives like the Parties to the Nauru Agreement (PNA)
Initiative has breathed more and promising prospect for the industry as a whole. The value of marine products exported was K4.9 million in the September quarter of 2007. The outcome was a result of combined declines in the export price and volume. Employment also declined due to the completion and improvement of projects.
The EIS states that due to the Project’s offshore location: “no adverse effects due to
interference with subsistence fishing vessels is anticipated,” and further that there will be no impact from mining on “nearshore coral reefs, including traditional reef fishing and shark calling” (Gwyther, 2008a). The EIS however does not consider the potential for an ore barge of bulk ore carrier to ground or founder, spilling its ore and fuel onto nearshore reefs, or noise from vessels. The waste from deep sea mining will be handled like the it has been done at the Lihir and Misima mines. The process here is called Deep Sea Tailing (DTSP) and will be the most feasible option for the deep sea mines (Shimmield et al, 2010). However, the potential environmental impacts of DSTP are irrefutably significant but at the same time extremely site-dependent; the result of complex and interacting biogeochemical, ecological,
topographical and oceanographic conditions. Under some conditions, DSTP may be the waste management option with the least impact out of several alternative tailings placement
strategies available. In other situations DSTP would be environmentally irresponsible. For example, DSTP operations in areas experiencing oceanographic upwelling have the potential to impact shallow coastal waters, reefs and fisheries (Shimmield, 2013).
With Nautilus also dumping their waste in the area where these other mines have been dumping their waste, there will be an increase in damage and risks for deep sea communities, eventually also affecting human communities that are dependant on fish resources.
3.4.3 The Coral Triangle
The Coral Triangle sits at a crossroads of rapidly expanding populations, economic growth and international trade (CTI-CFF, 2016). Coral reefs have experienced mass bleaching, which threaten to degrade the important ecosystems. An estimated 120 million people live within the Coral Triangle, of which approximately 2.25 million are fishers who depend on healthy seas to make a living. These threats are putting at risk livelihoods, economies and future market supplies for species such as tuna.Studies (Peñaflor et al. 2009) have highlighted the alarming decline of coral cover in this region. Since the marine resources are a principal source of income for the population, the downstream effects of losing these critical coastal ecosystems are enormous.
3.4.4 Social Disintegration
When social systems join together to form a larger one, they are said to integrate. When the opposite occurs, the larger system must be regarded as disintegrating (Goldsmith, 1971). This could also be seen as a system which is being reduced, the different bonds which were
holding the system together are now being weakened and will eventually fall apart into smaller systems. Such disintegration could be initiated by sustained anger and frustration over a long period of time by the country’s population. In PNG such frustration and anger has been going on for quite a while and could eventually lead to violent action directed against the mine. In 1984, BHP began exploiting the gold cap at the Ok Tedi mine in PNG. During the mining period, the discharge caused widespread and diverse harm, both environmentally and socially, to the 50,000 people who lived in the 120 villages downstream of the mine (Kirsch, 1996). This resulted in a lot of social problems, because the ‘quality of life’ in the villages continued to decline, and the potential for a violent response against the mine was increasing day by day (Kirsch, 1993).
3.5 Law of DSM 3.5.1 Legal background
Deep-sea mining potentially impacts ecological communities. Therefore it is important to have good legislation that affect the environment not or in the least worst way. Once there is legislation on DSM there will also be better understanding in how to bring this in business. Also the companies in this business will know their financial-environmental responsibility, as there will be fines on neglecting legislation (Birney et al., 2006) . Our paper will be focussing on Papua New-Guinea, so the international legislation on PNG is affecting our case. The location of the tenements is visible in Figure 10.
Figure 10. Location of tenements (Nautilus Minerals, 2010).
3.5.2 International legislation
On January 14, 1997 PNG ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), thus becoming part to some major international regulations on oceans that includes the maritime zones and the promotion of marine and environmental protection (Division of Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, 2016). This UNCLOS gave PNG some rights and duties on marine subjects. The most relevant rights and duties of establishing an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) within the range of 200 nautical miles offshore (UNCLOS Part V, Article 57). This gives PNG the right to the resources in that EEZ (UNCLOS Part V, Article 56). The duty however is the responsibility and protection of the environment in that area (UNCLOS Part V, Article 61).
3.6 Economic feasibility
Looking at what the economic drivers behind the deep-sea mining are gives us some
knowledge on why it is or will be done in the first place. There are several economic drivers for deep-sea mining and the most important driver is that Nautilus Minerals’ Worley Parson Engineering study (Heydon, 2004) shows that deep-sea mining for copper is about 50% cheaper than land mining copper. This is because the copper ore is qualitatively better than the copper ore mined on land. Another driver concerning copper is the price of this
commodity. Since this commodity is getting scarcer the price of copper is nearly 200% increased in twenty years, with a peak in 2012 of 350% increase (InfoMine Inc. 2017). Thus driving the metals market to seek an alternative in deep-sea mining.
In economics it is useful to look at the costs and benefits which has already occurred and then take a look at the future. Because with every social-science it is hard to predict the future and the assumption you have to make are events (costs and benefits) from the past will occur in the same circumstances in the future.
So we first look to the events concerning deep-sea mining which already happened or will happen in PNG. Therefore it is wise to have a look at Nautilus Minerals. Nautilus Minerals has done a project to mine in deep-sea in PNG territorial waters in 2008 (Gwyther, 2008a). This project is called Solwara and according to Gwyther (2008a) which is financed to do this research by Nautilus Minerals, the benefits in terms of labor will not be for the people of PNG. Because the first project requires experienced labor and the people of PNG do not have the intellectual knowledge to work for Nautilus Minerals. But according to Gwyther (2008a) there will be direct and indirect labor available for the people of PNG. How much is the question. A couple of other benefits are pointed out by Gwyther (2008a). But we can raise questions about how reliable this paper is, because it is financed by the company. So the company has incentives to cover some costs or negative externalities up.
Furthermore it is significant to mention that Papua New Guinea holds 30% in equity in the projects, so that would mean the government would earn 30% of the profit (Gwyther, 2008a).
4. Selected method and data
The kind of data collection this research is going to use is mainly secondary data. To obtain information from published data about DSM and use this to draw new conclusions for DSM in PNG in a geologic, ecologic, economic and social geographic context. This data can be found in scientific articles, journals & ArcGIS. In our case a lot of data will come from reports of Nautilus Minerals, but to check the data this will be compared with other sources that published about DSM. The main research this paper will built on is: Potential Deep-Sea Mining of Seafloor Massive Sulfides: A Case Study in Papua New Guinea (Birney et al., 2006). This paper will add more objective and recent knowledge about DSM in PNG. In order to integrate the findings from the four disciplines a SWOT-analyses will be used (Valentin, 2001). This analyses is a useful technique for the identification and assessment of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of DSM in PNG. The analysis will provide strategic insights (Valantin, 2001). This will be done for every Solwara project (19 in total). This will result in an integrated overview of all the disciplines over all solwara
projects.
During the SWOT-analysis, many maps in ArcGIS are used to compare the different
disciplines per location. The boat routes are derived from the National Geographic world map (ArcGIS, 2017). The information about threatened reefs, is gathered from Reefs at Risk Revisited (WRI, 2011a) and future threats (WRI, 2011b). A global geomorphological features map (Harris et al., 2014), a map of the solwara projects and the regions of the licensed areas of Nautilus Minerals (Nautilus Minerals, 2010). Moreover, a more detailed maps of for example seamounts (Bismarck, 2008). The different maps are put in the right order in ArcMap 10.2 and intersected wherever necessary to show the different factors playing a role in the Nautilus Minerals DSM areas in PNG. In the end there will be an integrated map of the Manus Basin made in ArcMap.
This end map will include an attribute table with information gathered from Nautilus Mineral reports with all the information of all the solwara projects, the information about the projects is inconsistent and not the whole table could be filled in:
5. Results
5.1 Integrated map
Many results have been extracted from maps (Appendix B). The most important maps concerning the different disciplines have been integrated, see map below.
5.2 Interdisciplinary SWOT-analysis
In this section a summary of the key results of the SWOT-analysis is presented. The full SWOT-analysis can be read in Appendix C.
The different clusters and Solwara 19 are not equally distributed over the Bismarck sea. There are three clusters of points, cluster A: Solwara 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 13. Cluster B: Solwara 2, 3, 14, 15, & 16. Cluster C: Solwara 11, 17 & 18. Furthermore, there is one isolated mining site: Solwara 19.
5.2.1 Socio-ecological
From the ecological perspective, cluster A creates a higher risk in comparison with the Solwara sites from other clusters, because it lays close to areas with high watershed- and marine-based pollution (Appendix B.4 & B.6). Moreover, it is close to reefs that are
threatened by this pollution, but also by overfishing (Appendix B.7). Especially Solwara 1, 5 and 9 lay close to a busy boat Rabaul and Kavieng, so the operation could disturb shipment routes and because they lay closest to the coast: possibly fisheries. Furthermore, port Rabaul that will be used for the transport of cargo with this cluster, has a higher pollution in
comparison with all the other harbors in the Bismarck sea (Appendix B.6).The extra activities of DSM could lead to more pollution in this harbor, and lead to frustrated people and higher risks for sea life. The coastal development is here also high, which causes threats to reefs (Appendix B.5). However, the strong coastal development could also increase the chance of finding locals who could potentially work with Nautilus.
With the increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, ocean acidification is an extra pressure that marine life is facing in the coming decades. Now, the aragonite concentration in the Bismarck sea is still optimal (Appendix B.8), but in 2050 it is expected to be marginal for cluster B, C and Solwara 19. It is expected to become extremely marginal for cluster A (Appendix B.9), so that is another reason why cluster A creates more risk in comparison with the other clusters. Not only at the present, with the nearby reefs and heavy pollution, but also in the future climate change will increase in this region. The thermal stress increases from 80 in 2030 (Appendix B.10) to 92,5 in 2050 (Appendix B.11).
Cluster C only has Solwara 11 and 18 that lay close to a shipment route between Lorengau and Finschhafen, which could interfere with boat traffic. It has a low increase of thermal stress, but it is in 2050 expected to be higher (95) in comparison to cluster A. Cluster C lays far away from the coast, fisheries, and the harbor of Lorengau that would probably be used for the transport of ore, is less polluted. So does this region minimize most risks? Not from the ecological perspective, because Solwara locations 11, 17, 18 and also the isolated Solwara 19 lay close to seamounts (Appendix B.3). Seamounts can be hotspots for biodiversity (Clark & Koslow, 2007) so the mining impacts could have larger consequences. Therefore, Solwara 11,17,18 and 19 have been assigned as a red flag area: these regions could have the largest
possible impacts. Especially Solwara 17 which is only 530 m below sea level (BSL) and would not be deep-sea mining, because it is less than 1000 m deep. Mining would occur high in the water column where fish, such as endemic tuna and mackerel swim (OBG, 2012). Solwara 19 is a red flag area because it lays close to seamounts, but also because thermal stress is expected to increase the most in this area: from 60 in 2030 (Appendix B.10) to 100 in 2050 (Appendix B.11). This could potentially put an extra pressure on the deep-sea ecosystems, which could make the deep-sea ecosystem more vulnerable to mining. Cluster B seems to have the least risks that are involved from the socio-ecological
perspective. It is does not lay close to the coast, seamounts, shipment routes, fishery and the harbor that would possibly be used for the transport of minerals (Kavieng) is the least polluted in comparison with the other harbors.
5.2.1 Geological and economics
The results show Solwara 1 can be potentially profitable, because with our calculations the sum of benefits could be circa 691.000.000$ for about one year mining. However with the potential expenditures of 11,9 billion dollar for 20 years ( ISA, 2008; Sharma, 2011) this can be lower profitability if the estimations are right. But expenditures are for mining 1,5 million tonnes a year and that would mean that Solwara 1 is exploited within one year (Sharma, 2011). So for 20 years the benefits would exceed the expenditures. Also it is not certain if the mining would be at a rate of 1,5 million tonnes a year, but when it does not the expenditures will likewise decrease.
As for the other Solwara’s except Solwara 1, there is a lack of information about the actual amount of tonnes to be mined. However there is information about the mineral composition of the Solwara’s. So based on the mineral composition we can conclude that Solwara 3 is more attractive than Solwara 1, because it contains double the percentage in gold and 10 times the percentage in silver. Solwara 2 and Solwara 4 till 14 the mineral composition is more or less the same as with Solwara 1. Solwara 16 till 19 there is an absence of gold and silver, so these locations could be potentially less profitable. For Solwara 15 there was no information at all available. In conclusion based on the (economic) SWOT results the best location for Nautilus Minerals and the PNG government (who holds 30% in equity) for profitability is Solwara 3, then Solwara 1, 2 and 4 till 14 and then Solwara 16 till 19.
6. Discussion
Not all critics of the EIA have been studied and the table of environmental impacts is still not complete. Also, the impacts, there sources, duration and magnitude still have a high
uncertainty, so they should be measured in the field to give more accurate results. This will help for a better development of mitigation measures and strategies to be taken during DSM. In the SWOT-analyses it was not possible to compare if all Solwara locations had suitable recruitment areas. If recruitment areas for vent species will work for conservation has been criticized by some experts (Steiner, 2014). If the project starts and the recruitment area seems to protect the organisms, it should be researched if the other locations also have
compensation areas. Also, the way that the locations have been compared has not been done with weights that are certain or widely recognized. Mainly because there is a lack of
experience about DSM. For example, it has been assumed that mining locations close to the coast could possible interfere with fisheries, and that mining close to a shipment route is a negative factor due to more boat traffic. Moreover, seamounts around Solwara 11, 17, 18 and 19 are expected to have a high biodiversity that could be influenced by mining, but this has not been explored yet.
Furthermore we could not compare the Solwara’s to each other in terms of possible benefits and profits, because there is only information available about the mineral composition and not on the size of the actual amount of rock to be mined. So we could not further calculate the benefits.
The resolution of the geomorphological features is low (~1:144k scale) for the global map, this has been overcome by fusing the map with more detailed maps. For example of the seamounts (Bismarck, 2008) but more maps could have been be used. Aragonite
concentrations estimates are also quite inaccurate, the scale of the map is 200 km. Future thermals stress estimations have a better cell size; 50 km. Still there could be some inconsistencies, the development of more detailed maps would help in making better predictions of impacts.
The EIS stated that due to the Project’s offshore location: “no adverse effects due to
interference with subsistence fishing vessels is anticipated,” and further that there will be no impact from mining on “nearshore coral reefs, including traditional reef fishing and shark calling” (EIS, 2009). The problem here is that it is hard to anticipate the effects on fisheries and future reliability on healthy fish in the seas. A better study is needed from Nautilus to make such statements.
7. Conclusion
In this paper we have examined the impact of deep sea mining in Papua New Guinea. We started this research with the question: “Which Solwara locations of Nautilus Minerals can best be used to minimize the potential socio-ecological impacts of deep-sea mining in Papua New Guinea together with maximizing economic feasibility?” and we tried to answer this with the use of literature studies, maps and an interdisciplinary SWOT analysis.
We have found that Nautilus plans to start mining at Solwara 1 and then after three years will continue to mine at one of the other mining locations. Cluster A (Solwara 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 13) is nearby the coast where many local threats can be found, such as (over)fishing, marine- and watershed-based pollution and coastal development. Cluster C (Solwara 11, 17 & 18) and Solwara 19 are far from the coast and fisheries, however, the mining locations lay close to seamounts which possibly harbor great biodiversity and therefore mining could form a large threat. Cluster B (Solwara 11, 17 & 18) is further away from the coast and pollution and fisheries than cluster A, but not as isolated as cluster C (lower transportation costs) and not close to seamounts. So cluster B would minimize the potential socio-ecological impacts. It was found that of cluster B, Solwara 2, 3 and 10 have the highest economic feasibility. So Solwara 2, 3 and 10 are the mining locations with the least possible risks and most profits. If Nautilus manages to successfully start with deep-sea mining it could attract more mining companies to the Bismarck Sea. Preserving large vents throughout the mining field and assigning recruitment areas for all viable mining locations could help to increase the survival chances of vent organisms. A monitoring program that was demonstrated in this paper would be a good option to consider in order to measure the ecological impacts. Social impacts are harder to monitor, but since this paper only predicts small potential impacts for the fisheries and shipment routes, there is not a big risk. Nautilus says to hire civilians of PNG when they start with mining. Job opportunities for local people would be good for the local economy, therefore it is important to ensure that Nautilus keeps it word. All in all, deep-sea mining should be done with precaution and close monitoring so that another environmental disaster like the Ok Tedi gold mine can be prevented.
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Appendix A: Data management table
Disciplines Theories Concepts Assumptions methods
Insight into the problem Ecology Insular
biogeography
Extinction, immigration, isolation, connectivity, distance, size habitat
species richness depends on extinction and immigration
Vents can be seen as islands, so theories about insular biography can applied to vent ecosystems Ecology Distance effect Distance, immigration,
isolation, recolonization, disturbance, recruitment zone Immigration increases when the distance of the island (vent) is closer to the source area
Recruitment areas have to be close to the impacted area
Ecology Ecological resilience
Transformability, persistence, adaptability, disturbance, ecosystem state, equilibrium, threshold
The amount of disturbance the system can take without reaching a threshold that will change the system into a different state. Vent ecosystems have a high resilience because it manages to survive the high variability of vent fluids. However, mining is an extra disturbance that could result for the system to reach the threshold Ecology Engineering
resilience
Sensitivity, time, The
recoverability of the system and the time it takes to recover after a disturbance Depends on life history characteristics and dispersal mechanisms, and this differs per species, so some are more resilient to mining than others Ecology Halo effect Distance, species richness,
abundance
The closer to the vent the more organisms, at active as well as inactive vents
It is better to mine at a larger distance from the vents
Earth Sciences
Resources and reserves are often defined as ‘all there is’, this is incorrect states Meinert et al. (2016) and the main resource issue will be the development of capacity to discover additional resources. This provides a conceptual framework. Reserves:
reachable and economically recoverable minerals. Resources: Includes all reserves and in addition the non-economical reachable minerals.
Limits to growth: Concept introduced in The limits to growth (Meadows et al., 1972). The increase of resources is linear and the growth of population exponential which will cause the world to ‘run out’ on resources.
Additional resources discoveries: There are many resources still unknown and not considered in the ‘limits to growth’ calculations, for instance minerals in the deep sea reachable by deep sea mining. The terms reserves and resources are often misused. Conclusions are that the world will soon ‘run out’. Quantity of resources is still unknown and a lot of resources are yet to be discovered.
Minerals that can be derives by deep sea mining can be an addition to the reserves
Deep sea mining can bring new
discoveries and possibilities that will help in the issues of resource demand.
Human Geography
Cultural importance
Culture exhibits the way that humans interpret their biology and their environment, culture can become a very important and integral part of human existence. Culture defines and shapes human beings. -Human nature -behaviour -biology -environment Human Geography Environmental conservation Environmental conservation can be seen as the broad term for anything that furthers the goal of making life more sustainable for the planet. Environmental conservation considers all the aspects of taking care of earth, this means the air and the earth's atmosphere, animal and plant life, humans and cultural development, and the planet's water. Besides this, environmental conservation
Environmental conservation plays a huge part in the sustainable development of our planet. -Sustainable -Development -Human rights
also shares a lot of interests with human rights.
Human Geography
Social disintegration
Social disintegration can be seen as a system which is being reduced, the different bonds which were holding the system together are now being weakened and will eventually fall apart into smaller systems.
It is the tendency for society to decline or disintegrate over time, perhaps due to the lapse or breakdown of traditional social support systems. Social disintegration can bring a country into a weaker state. -Social problems -Quality of life
Economics Deep-sea mining can compete with land mining// Coase theorem// Industrial organization approach
Direct competition, price, price fluctuation, profit, land mining, efficient allocation, costs. // Property rights, transaction costs, externalities// suppliers, bargaining power of buyers and sellers, potential entrants, substitutes, entry barriers Rational buyers, homogeneous products. // Efficient markets, rationality. // Competitiveness and profitability increase or decrease with these factors. Competition
between two ways of producing the same product, regarding deep-sea mining and land mining. // Law includes property rights for deep-sea mining and brings more efficiency. // Profitability
comparison based on this approach with respect to deep-sea mining and land mining.
Appendix B.3: Seamount map
Appendix B.5: Coastal development threats
Appendix B.6: Marine-based pollution threats
Appendix B.7: Overfishing threats
Appendix B.9: Aragonite Saturation 2050
Appendix B.11: Expected Thermal Stress 2050
