Research Report Interdisciplinary project 2014
Drowning neighborhoods of São Paulo: an integrated approach on the
enhancement of adaptive capacity against floods.
São Paulo, January 2010
Students:
Jurg Wilbrink – 10373357 Max Wastiaux – 10187871 Marc Pullens – 5735025 Gabriel Koyro – 10855610
Expert & Tutor:
Crelis Ramelt Msc. Jaap Rothuizen Msc.
Date:
19-12-2014 Words: 8330
Abstract:
This research report will show an analysis of the concept of adaptive capacity and how it is related to flood risk management with São Paulo as its case study. Adaptive capacity will be extrapolated on using the sub concepts of flexible and strong measures. Using the knowledge of the fields of human geography, engineering and politics, these measures will be compared and the possibilities of combining the two in an integrated approach will be touched upon. Within the human geography discipline resilience and vulnerability of areas and people will be discussed, furthermore, GIS maps will be used to visualize and locate vulnerability to floods and serve as an instrument to empirically make our case. Engineering takes the presentation of technological solutions for its account, and possibilities in the future. Through politics, the ways of governance will be evaluated and through the concepts of MLG type 2 and good governance, desired changes in governance will be put forward. The final analysis will show that the most vulnerable areas are located not only in the city center, where land cover is at its maximum, but also at peripheral areas, where land cover is not such an important factor being infrastructure and urban drainage systems the most relevant components of flood management. Thereby making an integrated approach most desirable for the future of São Paulo considering the most vulnerable and their need for enhanced adaptive capacity regarding floods.
Table of Content
An introduction into adaptive capacity of São Paulo
Theoretical framework on the concepts underlying an understanding of adaptive capacity
Environmental perspective of urbanization Adaptive capacity and resilience
Vulnerability concerning aspects related to floods
Governance; organization of a self-sustaining system via learning and adaptation Flexible and strong measures, what they entail and what the differences are.
Research into an integrated approach regarding flood management in São Paulo
Locations of vulnerable area’s concerning floods, evaluating GIS data and maps. Current situation of flood governance institutions in São Paulo
Desired future flexible changes in the municipalities regarding key-stakeholders
Implementing integrated flood management
Conclusive analysis and statements
Future Recommendations
An introduction into adaptive capacity of São Paulo:
The grip of the changing climate is tightening. This leads to more frequent and intense natural disasters all around the globe (IPCC, 2007). In the case of São Paulo this consists of floods, rainfall, landslides and droughts (REF_CC impact in São P). Climate change is a global issue and cannot be solved in the short term. However, the effects of climate change are currently visible at a local scale. Mitigation and adaptation are necessary to reduce vulnerability to climate change. This is the reason why local communities need to find strategies to adapt and cope with the impact of a changing climate. Building adaptive capacity is a widely discussed strategy to treat these problems at local scales. In this strategy mitigation and adaptation can be seen as two separated but potentially complementary concepts to deal with climate change (College of Earth & Mineral science, 2014).
In 2008, more than 50 percent of world’s population lived in cities, this percentage may come up to 60% in 2030. Most of this growth will occur in developing countries (United Nations, 2008). In Brazil 80% of the population lives in urban areas (IBGE, 2010). As a BRIC-state, Brazil is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. If the economy of Brazil maintains the 2010 growth rate of 7.5 per cent, in 15 years it could become one of the five major economies in the world (Brazilian Red Cross 2011). Sectors of industry and tourism became very popular, mostly located in cities. Due to various reasons people move to the big cities. In cities there are more opportunities for a better life, better education, and better health services than in rural areas. Mechanization in the agrarian sector caused unemployment in rural areas and may be seen as a rural push-factor (Brazil, 2014). In figures 1 it is possible to observe the enormous urban growth of São Paulo, especially after the late industrialization, when urban planning was given very low importance, leading into population of natural flood plains.
Figure 1. São Paulo growth from 1881 to 2000.
These new inhabitants of the city have regularly built their houses on vulnerable areas to floods. For example, in the period of industrialization (1930-1980), the Italian and Spanish immigrants, who formed a big part of the blue-collar class, located their neighborhoods in floodplains (Fix et al. 2003). The largest urban area of Brazil, São Paulo, will be the main focus of our research on capacity building against the negative effects of floods. This is an interesting area due to a variety of factors that enhance the impact of floods. The city faces a huge rate of urban expansion, resulting in soil cover and therefore the decrease of infiltration rates causing floods (Jacobi et al., 2013, pp. 79). Subsequently, geographical location and the political system make the problem increasingly complex; policies are highly regulated in cities, which more often than in rural areas, cause problems if changes are necessary.
As seen in figure 1, the urbanization rate in São Paulo is depicted, which emphasize the considerable growth of the urbanized area. Rapid urban growth has created fragmented spaces with large spatial segregation, exacerbating social inequality and environmental degradation (Grotstein, 2001). Hence, particular neighborhoods or areas are predominantly exposed to water related hazards due to the combination of these aspects.
The aim is to enhance the adaptive capacity in vulnerable areas by delivering suggestions of measures. In this research the combination of environmental science and social science will be used to come up with integrated solutions. In this research vulnerability against floods is approached from three perspectives.
Flexible, strong and integrated methods will be discussed to develop future recommendations. The central question will be as follows:
What are the possibilities for enhancing the adaptive capacity against floods in vulnerable areas of São Paulo?
Several steps will be taken to formulate a complete answer to the central research question. Locating the vulnerable areas is the primary target. The mapping of vulnerable areas is most commonly done from a physical and direct perspective. The social conditions, which contribute to the vulnerability in these regions, are rarely referred to. In this research, the link between this data will be made with the help of GIS by combining the physical and social layers of data. Thus, the first sub question is as follows:
Where are the vulnerable areas located in São Paulo?
In the current situation, different aspects are causing the flood related problems in São Paulo. The governance and policies of the São Paulo municipality, which lead to the organization of the city are mostly short-termed and focused on structural interventions. An example is that counterproductive measures are taken by different mayors over the years, whereby land-covering highways are built on a uncovered landstrip, which originally was meant to increase the infiltration rate of the area. This leads to water runoff, causing rivers to overflow once again. Furthermore, expansion of urban areas often occupies natural river floodplains and is more likely to suffer from cyclic natural floods. By answering the following sub questions a view on already implemented measures is discussed.
What is currently done to enhance the adaptive capacity against floods? - What are the current ‘strong’ measures? - What are the current ‘flexible’ measures?
The concepts of strong and flexible measures will further be elaborated on in the paper, and a distinction in the type, properties and effects of measures will be made. This paper argues that an integrated approach is desirable to contribute to the enhancement of the adaptive capacity of urban floods. Answering the following question, will provide the necessary structure to appropriately answer the central research question:
Theoretical framework on the concepts underlying an understanding of adaptive capacity:
In the following subchapters we will extrapolate on the various concepts which all together will provide a necessary understanding of what adaptive capacity entails.
Environmental perspective of urbanization
While mentioning urbanization and defectively planned city growth, it is indispensable to mention its effects in the environment and local ecosystems. On the assumption that human activity impacts the surrounding environment, it is adequate to consider that its natural dynamic also changes, in order to absorb the anthropic impacts and avoid a collapse. These adaptations essentially relate the consequences to populated areas and human activities.
As watersheds are urbanized, there is loss of vegetation and open areas, making its surface less pervious and more channelized, which reduces infiltration rates and speeds up the removal of excess runoff (Holman-Dobbs et al., 2003).
Infiltration is the entry of water available at the surface into the soil (Philip, 1956). It depends mainly on the properties and conditions of the soil, such as porosity, hydraulic conductivity and existing moisture content of the soil (whether it is saturated or unsaturated) (UNESCO-IHE, 2010). Water infiltration originates subsurface flow, which is a lateral flow influenced by the underground terrain and the saturation gradient that induces the water to flow from a saturated location to an unsaturated one. Subsurface flow influences water availability during drought periods as the soil slowly replenishes the water of the base flow present in streams. According to Beven (2004) after Horton (1933), storm runoff is primarily a result of overland flow generated by an excess of rainfall over infiltration capacity of the soil. In case of rainfall, the amount of water that cannot infiltrate must be drained from the urban area, either by gravity or, if not possible, by human intervention, to prevent obstruction of vehicle and pedestrian traffic and to prevent property damage (Custódio, 2002). These impacts merge to urban disaster situations and originates floods.
Adaptive capacity and resilience
The aim of this research is to create and maintain a prosperous social, economic, and ecological systems in vulnerable areas in São Paulo. These systems are inherently connected; the society depends on the ecosystem service for security. Human actions cause major changes in ecological systems which results in
negative shifts and affect livelihoods, vulnerability and security. Such negative shifts represent loss of resilience (Folke et al 2002) .
Adaptive capacity is the main concept used in this research. First, the meaning and applicability of this concept will be explained then additional concepts are elaborated .
Enhancing the adaptive capacity is a strategy to cope with the problems of flood control. Adaptive capacity has been the subject of a worldwide interdisciplinary research effort aimed at making it operational for climate related policy processes. This concept is regularly used in climate related issues but is also applied outside the climate community. According to the Resilience Alliance (2014) adaptive capacity in social context means “the existence of institutions and networks that learn and store knowledge and experience, create flexibility in problem solving and balance power among interest groups play an important role in adaptive capacity (Resilience Alliance, 2014)”. In an ecological context the alliance states: “Adaptive capacity in ecological systems is related to genetic diversity, biological diversity, and the heterogeneity of landscape mosaics (Resilience Alliance, 2014)”.
Key in this research is using adaptive capacity as an umbrella concept that includes the ability to prepare and plan for hazard, as well as to implement technical measures before, during and after a hazard event. Resilience can be considered as an attribute that influences adaptive capacity. It consists of three factors: (i)The magnitude of a shock that the system can absorb and remain within a given state. (ii) The degree to which the system is capable of self-organization. (iii) The degree to which a system can build capacity for learning and adaptation (Folke et al 2002). This interpretation of resilience became the basis of scientific background for the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002 (Folke et al., 2002). In our definition, however, resilience is a determinant of the vulnerability of a system to hazards. It is a guideline for policy making.
Cities are in a constant state of change therefore the basic principle of resilience, returning to the original state after a disturbance, is not possible nor desirable. The original state will be vulnerable to disasters again. Instead, adaptive capacity building of urban areas focuses on self- organizing capacity and the degree to which a system can build capacity for learning and adaptation and is therefore more suitable approach (Klein et al 2004)
Adaptive capacity is defined in the glossary of the IPCC (2001, p. 982) TAR as “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences”. Because adaptation does not occur instantaneously, the relationship between
adaptive capacity and vulnerability depends crucially on the timescales and hazards with which we are concerned. The vulnerability, or potential vulnerability, of a system to climate change that is associated with anticipated hazards in the medium- to long-term will depend on that system's ability to adapt appropriately in anticipation of those hazards. However, vulnerability to hazards associated with climate variability that may occur in the immediate future will be related to a system's existing short-term coping capacity rather than its ability to pursue long-term adaptation strategies Brooks (2003).
Vulnerability and floods
As described in the introduction of this report, the research will focus on the ‘vulnerable’ areas of São Paulo. To understand how this concept is defined and what definition will be used in this research, some elaboration on the topic is necessary. A short elaboration on disasters and hazards will precede the defining of vulnerability, for vulnerability against floods, mainly caused by climate change, will be on of the main focus points of our research.
In some cases, claims are made that the societal response to the prediction of a natural disaster or hazard has as much effect as the disaster itself on the overall consequences, and thereby, vulnerability is co-described as the societal response to a natural disaster. The United Nations (2004) describe ‘hazard’ as ‘a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation’. Turner et al. (2003) describe it as the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a hazard. The term finds its origin from geography and natural hazards research, nowadays it is commonly used as a central concept in a wide range of scientific fields. Within different learning schools vulnerability is conceptualized in several ways, whereas engineers will have a descriptive manner of applying the term, social scientists will use it in the context of an explanatory model (Füssel, 2007).1 According to Kasperson et al. (2005) there is not one correct conceptualization of vulnerability that would cover all contexts where the concept is used. This is most problematic when there is collaboration between research teams from different disciplines. In our climate related research, all the scholars with different research traditions need to find a way to use consistent terminology (Newell et al., 2005). 1 To understand the concept of hazards and disasters, it is important to realize that disasters are highly subject to social construct. “There is a fine line between resources and hazards, between water out of control (flood hazard) and water under control (reservoir resource)” Weichselgartner (2001).
According to Füssel (2007) the most common frameworks provided to find consistent terminology largely agree on four dimensions that are necessary to describe vulnerability and is highly illustrative on understanding how we decided to use the concept in our research. The first thing he mentions is that all authors agree on the fact that the system of analysis should be demarcated before the concept is described, in our case this is the city of São Paulo, more specifically the area within the municipality. The attribute
of concern follows, which may consist of human lives, ecosystems, electricity grid, and for example
infrastructure. This will consist of a wide range of aspects, as will become clear further on in the research. The third dimension mentioned, is hazard; a potentially damaging influence on the system of analysis. Certain hazards are described as internal when the threat is from within the community, however hazards are more often external to the system. Floods are mainly seen as an external hazard, especially within our research, on an urban scale. The last dimension is the temporal reference: the time period of interest. This dimension is particularly important if the risk will change over time. As to the temporal reference, we decided to focus on reducing long-term vulnerability against floods.
Through the history of conceptualizing vulnerability, there arose different approaches. To illustrate the process some approaches will follow. The risk-hazard approach is a highly descriptive approach rather than explanatory, it is all about assessing the risk to valued elements that arise from the exposure to hazards with a certain magnitude (Dowing et al., 1999). Engineers and economists in the technical domains of science mainly apply this approach. It mainly describes the relationship between the severity of hazard and the damage that is caused (United Nations, 2004). A totally different approach as it comes to the interpretation of knowledge, is the political economy approach, which focuses on people, communities and groups, with questions as: why and who are the most vulnerable in certain situations. It is highly explanatory and based on socioeconomic vulnerability regarding different types of stressors. These two approaches have been combined in several integrated approaches, finding their roots, according to Füssel (2007), in the “geography as human ecology” by Barrows (1923). The most important aspect of the used integrated approaches is the combination of the internal factors of a vulnerable system with the external hazards. The integrated definition of vulnerability is mostly used in multi- and interdisciplinary research regarding environmental and climate research.
In this interdisciplinary research on creating adaptive capacity against floods, the integrated approach to the concept of vulnerability will be used. Herein, the focus will be on creating a common understanding under policy makers, which follow the risk-hazard approach and the political economy approach. More specifically; creating bridges between long-term and short-term adaptation to floods e.g. to create adaptive capacity against floods in the long run, the initial adaptive capacity may be weakened.
Governance; organization of a self-sustaining system via learning and adaptation:
Understanding of policy-making processes and its related institutions in São Paulo is of high importance when looking at possibilities to come up with changes that could heighten adaptive capacity. In this part we will therefore extrapolate on the forms of governance which will have beneficial effects on the current state of policy-making concerning the floods in São Paulo. Thereby creating the political space to improve the moldability of policymaking. Which will create more potential to enhance resilience and decrease vulnerability of the municipalities of São Paolo concerning floods.
Resilience, for social-ecological systems, is related to governance via the degree of participation and cooperation, which lead to more adaptation capacities and self-organization of a system (Folke et al 2002). This conceptualization works well with the popular new notion of good water governance.
This new popular concept has its roots in the emerging literature on both, multi-level governance and good governance regarding risk management. Hooghe & Marks (2001) elaborate on the idea of multi-level governance type 2. They explain that its focus lies on governing certain bodies of interest, by excluding the constraints of boundaries and including several governing institutions on different layers of governance. Resulting in improving trans-regional cooperation, referring to cooperation between national, state and local governing institutions, and inter-regional participation. Especially the last mentioned is well combinable with the idea of good governance.
Good governance concerning flood risk management includes “communities in the elaboration and
implementation of public policies, and as such goes beyond state-centered conceptions of policy” (Jacobi
et al., 2013, pp. 81). It entails a combination of multi-stakeholder negotiations, decentralization of power to local communities, the recognition of water basins as legitimate bodies for management and methodologies of conflict resolution (Solanes & Jouralev 2006; Castro 2007). Nowadays, there is an increasingly widespread agreement that in order to comprehend that changing the uses of water systems correlates with issues related to land use and planning (Gallart & Llorens 2003), climate change (Kalnai & Cai 2003), public health (Jacobi et al., 2013), water governance (Rogers & Hall 2003; Solanes & Jouvralev 2006) and environmental management (Jacobi et al., 2013, pp. 81). This means that innovative ways of management are needed to balance the various interests. Through implementation of instruments of participation, changes in patterns of governance can be achieved. For example “civil society
infiltration and pollution to tackle problems directly at the point where they are generated to mitigate their effects on water systems” (Jacobi et al., 2013, pp. 82)
To conclude on how self-organization of a system regarding flood risk management and water systems could be achieved in correct manner, we will have to take into consideration that social learning means cooperating to a future in which institutional stakeholders could improve their knowhow via intensified consultation, increasing cooperation and trust, conflict resolution and finding socially and technically feasible solutions. They would have to mobilize all of the potential stakeholders, thus reducing potential risks associated with bad governance in the region. This will result in a broad discussion on all levels of governance (national, state, regional, local), which could lead to a focus on new ways of inter- and intra-cooperative governing concerning natural disasters by finding solutions through the combining of participatory management into the decision-making process of the governments.
Assessing adaptive capacity is challenged by two main factors. First, adaptive capacity can only be measured after it has been mobilized. Thus after a flood, the adaptive capacity of the socio-economic system will be measurable. Hence, before a hazardous impact, adaptive capacity can only be assessed based upon assumptions about different indicators that might influence response and action. Difficult is to assess the extent to which specific institutional and governance factors relate and influence each other in building adaptive capacity. For instance, democracy and knowledge use are both indicators of adaptive capacity but might be contradictory. Decision making by democracy will limit science based policy due to the aspiration of reaching mutual consensus among stakeholders (Engle & Lemos, 2008).
Secondly, measuring adaptive capacity across and between different scales result in challenges in theoretical and practical perspective. Small scale studies make generalization of assessments difficult. However, we assume that the options of adaptation to floods are likely to be realized on local scale, whether policy actions and financial flows for building adaptive capacity will mostly happen on broader scales (Engle & Lemos 2008). The interaction between different scales of operation is desirable in building adaptive capacity in city neighborhoods.
Governance can be considered as a set of regulatory processes, mechanisms and organizations through which political actors influence environmental actions and outcomes. A variety of factors, such as, stakeholder participation, representation, accountability, knowledge use and equality of decision, relate and shape the governance of the vulnerable areas and their adaptive capacity (Engle and Lemos 2008).
Flexible and strong measures, what they entail and what the differences are.
Knowing the main reasons that affect urban flooding, it is possible to intervene in its core aspects with structural and non-structural measures. According to UNESCO-IHE (2010), non-structural measures are area specific and depends on the socio-economic environmental policies of the governing local authorities and the structural measures mainly involves rapid removal of surface water through artificial drainage and infiltration systems, most related to engineering structures.
Structural and non-structural measures can be more appropriate referred to as flexible and strong measures, considering that both approaches can cover more concepts related to adaptive capacity. While flexible measures can act enhancing the capability of the system to self-organize and absorb the disturbance, strong measures act as blocking or mitigating the impact caused by a disturbance.
Flexible measures, in the city of São Paulo are more related to long-term actions and can be reached by structural and environmental planning. These actions could, over time, decrease flood events in number and intensity because they will act increasing riparian forests, vegetation areas instead of exposed soil, enhancing the soils infiltration capacity.
Strong measures will act in the event of floods and focus in reducing its effects while it is occurring. The most common action is stabilizing flow peaks to a level which avoid river canal overflowing. This is achieved by building stabilization reservoirs capable of storing the rapid excess of water runoff, avoiding a flow peak that could cause floods and release it after the flow has decreased at safe levels.
Research into an integrated approach regarding flood management in São
Paulo
Locations of vulnerable area’s concerning floods, evaluating GIS data in maps.
To accurately determine what the likely locations are regarding vulnerability to floods we collected socio-economic data and physical data of the São Paulo municipal region. In the GIS-map depicted in map 3, the flood vulnerability is compared to the degree of urbanization. To adequately understand the data presented, the combination of data will be explained briefly.
The ‘Flood vulnerability’ diagrams depicted, consist of several types of data. We used data about socio-economic status, depicted in the GIS-map in map 1, which consist of a statistical (factorial) analysis of several factors; which are population density, population growth rate, median age, average family income, education years, infant mortality, residential share (m²/hab), percentage of people living in slums and mortality rate by external causes (SVMA and SEMPLA, 2002).
We normalized, while ‘reversing’ the data over the sum of flood points, depicted in map 2, of the individual areas (Nobre et al., 2011). We reversed the data, so it would result in a map where in the bigger and darker diagrams would depict the more flood vulnerable areas, and the smaller and lighter diagrams would depict the less flood vulnerable areas, as can be seen on the map.
The nine largest dark blue areas depict areas that are highly vulnerable to floods. Five of them are located in highly urbanized areas, and four are located in low urbanized, and even urban forest areas. These areas will be touched upon further on in this paper.
M ap 1. Socioeconomic profile of São Paulo per district. Source: SVAM & SEMPLA, 2002
The back layer of the GIS-map depicted in map 3, consists of a representation we developed using data about land coverage. We did a spatial analysis combining the ‘coverage data’ with the coordinates on the map, and made seven classifications accordingly; ‘High urbanization’ depicted in red, ‘Average
urbanization’ depicted in pink, ‘low urbanization’ depicted in yellow, ‘Urban forest’ in light green, ‘Forest’ in green, ‘Water’ in blue and finally ‘Extreme urbanization’ in black, which only occurs in the
center of the map.
Looking at where the flood vulnerability is highest in the map we come up with some explanations. The flood vulnerability is highest in the more central areas of the São Paulo municipality. This is due to the fact that the land coverage is highest in these areas, which causes surface imperviousness and consequently over-land runoff. Although these central areas have a high socio-economic profile, the amount of flood point is in such a number that the overall flood vulnerability, that we came up with, is high in these areas.
There are some peripheral areas, which have a high flood vulnerability as well. This may be explained by the low socioeconomic status of these areas, combined with moderate amount of floods. Whilst speaking with experts in the region, peripheral areas are indicated as higher vulnerable to floods than central areas (Interview 1: 19-12-2014).
Map 3. Map of Flood Vulnerability in São Paulo per district, compared to land cover. Generated in ArcMap by Gabriel Koyro and Jurg Wilbrink.
In the GIS-map in map 4 the flood vulnerability is combined with the elevation and the hydrography. The areas with the highest flood vulnerability are mostly located in the lowest regions and not directly next to the rivers. The reason for the flood vulnerability in these areas is the fact that water will accumulate in the lowest regions. We discovered that the risk of flooding is highest in the regions directly adjoining the rivers. According to experts in the region, the highest flood risk is not directly next to river, but rather areas situated at 100 to 200 meters distance from the river. This is due to the fact that water drainage systems are combined with sewerage, which directly drains in the river. When the water level rises in the river, this causes flood points in the areas that are located not directly next to the river. This is caused by the lower elevation of these areas (Interview 1: 19-12-2014).
Map 4. Flood Vulnerability in São Paulo per district, compared to physical information. Generated in ArcMap by Gabriel Koyro and Jurg Wilbrink.
The GIS-map depicted in figure 5 is developed using data on flood points in the São Paulo municipal areas. These points are spatially combined with data on slope percentages. The flood points are depicted as blue triangles and the difference in slope percentage are distinguished in a range of colours. Most of the flood points are located in areas with the lowest slope percentages as can be seen in the GIS-map in figure 5. The reason why the point are located in these areas is because the water flows over land towards the areas with the lowest slope, and concentrates here by the lowest flow rates in these areas, causing floods. More flood points can be found in the central areas, less show up in the peripheral areas. The central areas are the urban areas that are most densely built and located in areas that are with a moderate slope. Another reason may be the fact that more data is collected in these central areas, which leads to an uneven distribution of floods, although it is not clear if this has effect on the overall data.
Current situation of flood governance institutions in São Paulo
As has been mentioned earlier, the problems concerning floods do not solely stem from the growth of the city, but they have been aggravated by the absence of planning land use and occupation, the lack of preparation by concerning authorities and the non-existence of a culture centered around the notion of prevention in communities, generating a questioning of the legitimacy of state power (Warner, 2010). This considering, Jacobi et al., (2013) states that the contemporary scenario of urbanization requires an implementation of public policies which will improve the social and environmental sustainability of cities. Counteracting increased deterioration of urban living conditions, especially in emerging countries. Combine these two statements and it becomes clear that an inclusive cooperative approach will be the preferable flexible measure which will be beneficial to all stakeholders related to the floods in São Paulo. Currently the management of watersheds is in the hands of the regional governing institution of São Paulo. Their focus lies on the controlling of land use developments as to minimize environmental risks, by using instruments related to occupation entailing a decentralized and participatory approach to management. But again the lack of enforcement remains, because of the deficit of housing, which maintains illegal housing in the flood prone areas. Although the watershed management is in the hands of the regional governments, the state maintains the jurisdiction on managing the water resources. Furthermore besides the governmental institutions, several separate commissions discuss issues regarding natural hazards. Amongst the most influential are the National Council of Water Resources, the National Environmental Council (CONAMA), the National Council for Civil Defense (CNDC), the State Board for Water Resources (CERH), the State Council on the Environment (CONSEMA), the State Council on Climate Change and the watershed committees (Jacobi et al., 2013, pp. 84). Considering the fact that there are many institutions working on the issue, and the presumed focus on participatory governance this institutional setup deems adequate. Except that an absence of intersectional cooperation remains and conflicts over responsibility for specific rivers continue (Santos & Medeiros, 2009). There is also the issue of focus on the wrong sort of prevailing arrangements to deal with the recurrent threats of floods, whereby coordinated planning and routine activities are rare, whilst reactive lifesaving measurements (strong measurements) without any integration with broader urban management are rule (Fracalanza et al., 2009). This wrong kind of focus has the tendency to contribute to reproduction of risk, preserving a misleading model of intervention that only leads to enhanced impacts of floods and other natural hazards.
So as to summarize the above, the current situation of the governance on flood management in São Paulo, is that of a distinct lack of coordination and cooperation between several different
commissions, governing institutions on multiple levels of governance and public participation. Thereby resulting in a lack of cooperative good water governance.
Desired future flexible changes in the municipalities regarding key-stakeholders:
In this subchapter we will evaluate on preferable future changes considering flexible governing measurements. Table 1 will show short definitions of the key-concepts in this chapter indicating adaptive capacity of the vulnerable areas.
Adaptive capacity indicators
description of indicators
Participation All related stakeholders should be involved in the policymaking processes. With equal power, thereby ensuring the role of checks and balances and recognizing the unmapped poor.
Knowledge use Getting knowledge to all related stakeholders, will enhance policy decisions. Flood awareness
campaign Getting knowledge of floods in effective ways to inhabitants of flood-prone areas.Resulting in mutual understanding and changeable behavior. Health awareness and
planning campaign. Education all relevant stakeholders on health and water issues after a flood has takenplace. Thereby enhancing planning capabilities and coordination between stakeholders. Principle of
Subsidiarity Another way of ensuring checks and balances, by holding governmental institutions tosigned treaties. Table 1: indicators of adaptive capacity
As been noted in the theoretical framework, a way in which to enhance the adaptive capacity is by including the people in the policy-making process, especially the most vulnerable and unmapped, giving them much needed recognition. By doing so, knowledge is spread over all stakeholders involved and it will stop inhabitants from overpopulating specific flood mitigating areas. Therefore it is important to look at ways in how local people can be integrated and involved in the decision-making process. A way to do this is presented in the book ‘Cities and Flooding: A guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management
for the 21st century’ by Jha, et al. 2012. To reach the goal of enhanced participation, they suggest the
non-structural (flexible) measures, Flood awareness campaigns and Health planning and awareness campaigns (Jha et al., 2012, pp. 290-311).
Enhancing flood awareness will lead to mitigation activities and preparedness, which in turn reduce the velocity of the flood impact. As Jha et al. 2012 calls it: “the secret of success”(pp. 290), in these kinds of campaigns is to trigger local debates around issues concerning the area’s at risk.
Figure 2: Communications continuum (Jha et al., 2012, pp. 291)
To end up with a satisfactory amount of awareness, which will lead to understanding, acceptance and needed behavioral changes, basis guiding principles are required to be taken into account by the informing institutions.
- “implementation should be sensitive to local cultures, conditions and perspectives.
- all sectors of society should be targeted, including both decision-makers and members of the public.
- Messages should be targeted at the appropriate level for each interest group.
- Campaigns should be sustained over time, with regular monitoring of their success” (Jha et al., 2012, pp. 291)
Informing institutions can be found at the top-down and a bottom-up levels of approach. A top-down approach would for instance consist of national awareness campaigns backed up by flood fairs and activities designed to reach the local inhabitants. A bottom-up approach would consist of a community based initiative, where local stakeholders use local materials and localized small informative gatherings like at stage plays or by using folk songs.
But considering that these urban inhabitants may have received little to no hygiene education or health awareness training, makes them likely to be ill prepared to floods and how to cope in times of floods. This lack of knowledge can also be found at other stakeholders, for instance local governments and thereby result in a complete breakdown of basis public water services. Which often leads into high mortality rates (Jha, 2012, pp. 300). Regarding this issue, health awareness and planning campaigns need to be designed to enhance the adaptive capacity of the people in these areas. Again all key-stakeholders related to this issue should be involved in the decision-making process to ensure a an effective, clear and consistent message. Health awareness is therefore required by three distinct groups; the municipal staff, volunteers,
and health professionals, the general public and especially vulnerable groups and the media workers (Jha et al., 2012, pp. 300).
Besides the two types of campaigns, a governing principle that is being used by the EU, where they use the principle of subsidiarity (Europa.eu, 2010), should be looked at. This principle entails the issues on whether higher layers of governance should intervene in the decision-making processes. It is based on a number of criteria that a certain situation is subject to. Whereby the higher layer should investigate before intervening, whether the local or provincial governments are unable to solve the issue, or whether the lower layers of governance want to implement contrary policy, regarding national or regional governance treaties. This principle makes sure that more decentralized layers of governance and other related stakeholders like companies, NGO’s and inhabitants of the region, do not get overruled by the higher layers and it forces the higher layers to cooperate with the other stakeholders to come to cooperative integrated approaches concerning policy-management.
Desired strong future changes
Strong measures can take less time to take effect and, thus, we can assume that they are more preferable by the governance levels that are focused on short-term solutions and not in the whole scenery. In addition, strong measures can often present side effects or transport the problem to somewhere else. A great structure, such as reservoir for containing high amounts of water resulting from a heavy rainfall, must be designed with extremely precise security measures and without any budget cuttings. If the structure collapses, an enormous area would be affected, possibly with life loss situations, as the municipality of São Paulo has high population density. Furthermore, as reservoir stores great amounts of water, the siltation process worsens, decreasing its useful volume and, consequently, the usage life period. However, strong measures are not always a poor choice of tools for mitigating problems with floods. A dam or reservoir can be built for flood prevention, but can also be used for water and energy supply. Furthermore, it is possible to accomplish the positive effects of a big reservoir and, altogether, avoid most of its possible side effects. Small dams have already been built in the Alto Tietê watershed with beneficial impacts to flood-related issues. They demand less time and financial resources than a reservoir, demanding only a higher number of it in the same watershed for the effects to be significant.
in the reservoirs and dams. This would increase the useful volume and enhance the capacity of decreasing or even stopping a flood event.
In conclusion, strong measures, should be implemented in the source of the problem as it influences a small area compared to the watershed’s whole area. Dams or dykes are more effective near river sources or right before the beginning of urban areas where its construction would have less social impact in case of any properties expropriations. However, the environment impact should also be measured and be according the current legislation, in such manner that it does not inflict high ecosystem losses.
Implementing integrated flood management
Every flood scenario is different, that is why there is no flood management blueprint. Crucial is the suitability of measures in the context of the potential flood. A flood barrier in the in the wrong place can make flooding worse in another place by stopping rainfall from draining into the river or by pushing water to more vulnerable areas downstream. The designs of managements must be able to deal with uncertainties. Climate change is highly unpredictable this combined with urbanization, no climate model can give a credible prospect of the future which result in uncertainties. Measures therefore need to be flexible to uncertainties and need to take changing conditions into account.
Due to rapid urbanization, integrated management is highly desirable in urban planning, to adapt policy and measures to vulnerability of floods.
Each measure must be complementary to the other measures to prevent counteracting results, by identifying different ways of reducing flood risk in order to select those that best meet the desired objectives now, and in the future.
In flood risk management it is impossible to eliminate entirely the risk of flooding. This aspect must be taken into account when implementing structural measures. Structural measures may fail and flexible measures are mostly designed to minimize the impact of floods.
Benefits from flood management measures can also emerge in other forms. Such as, better and cleaner environments, green areas, protection to heat islands, health benefits and improvements of drainage systems and sewages.
Implementing a well working integrated flood management system can provide benefits due to more cooperation between stakeholders in flood management. Engagement with people at different stages
increases compliance and can reduce conflicts. This can affect also other societal problems in a positive way.
The integrated approach is essential in dealing with flood risk in cities. Floods are increasing in impact and cause more and more damage as a result of urbanization, urban development and climate change. Therefore management of floods need to be implemented in the short term but also in the long term. The balance of short and long term measurements requires clear leadership and the right institutional and legislative frameworks. Evaluating flood risk management, even when there has not been a flood, is an important aspect to improve the system and provide better resilience against future flood.
It is a huge challenge to create an integrated flood risk management system for rapidly growing urban settlements. One of the challenges is the change from traditional thinking to an integrated approach. Conventional strategies are affected by the desire to build structural measures. These structural measures worked well in the past but will not be comprehensive and flexible enough to cope with future flood hazards. The impact of climate change, urbanization, urban expansion etc. demands for a more integrated approach to provide better security to a larger amount of people.
Integrated flood risk management includes dynamic decision making which contains relevant institutions, involves stakeholders and engages affected communities. This is previously explained as flexible measures, which requires population participation and democratic decision making. An integrated strategy also involves the implementation of appropriate structural measures. Whether municipal management can have a lack of technical and financial resources to actually realize these measures, access to relevant and sufficient knowledge is critical in top down decision making.
According to Jha et al (2012) an integrated approach to build adaptive capacity to floods is characterized by five elements; (i) the role of informal and formal institutions, (ii) the important role of community engagement in flood preparedness and mitigation, (iii) community based measures to enhance adaptation resilience. (iv) financial resource measurements, and (v) issues that need to be take into account when operating and maintaining both structural and non-structural flood risk management measures once they are implemented.
The process of integrated flood risk management is characterized by several steps, understanding flood hazard and identifying the most appropriate measures, to plan, implement and finally evaluate the strategy
measures. In the case of São Paulo it is necessary to determine the vulnerable areas to enable full understanding of the situation so applicable measures can be implemented.
Five stages of successful management of floods are elaborated by Jha et al (2012). Each stage provides consultations to the other stages to enhance cooperation between the different instruments. First stage is to understand the flood hazard now and in the future to determine what will be affected during a flood. This step is essential in designing measurements and solutions which can limit damage from specific floods. In our research it is about preventing vulnerable neighborhoods from flooding. Assessing vulnerability of areas is done in the previous chapters. Secondly, identifying which measures will be most effective in preventing particular areas from floods related damage. Integrating flood risk management will provide a combination of flexible and strong measures which can as a whole contribute to a successful reduction of the urban flood risks.
Third stage is featured by planning the measures of urban planning, policy and management practices will enable solutions with benefits on environmental, health and economic purposes. This requires the development of a comprehensive long-term integrated strategy which can be linked to existing urban planning and management policy and practices.
In the fourth stage financing is the central subject. Integrated flood risk management is a multi-disciplinary and multi sectorial intervention that falls under financial responsibility of a variety of government and non-government bodies. Here prioritizing certain measures are essential. In the fifth and last stage described by Jha et al (2012) the evaluation on how effectively the measures are working and what could be changed in the future is the central issue. This is important for improving the design and implementation of flood and risk management measures, both flexible and strong.
By zooming in on the selected areas in São Paulo on vulnerability a number of suggestion can be done on improving the adaptive capacity of these areas. There is an interesting area in São Paulo that is very suitable for the implementation of integrated flood management. Regarding the first stage of implementing management when defining the flood risk is important to thoroughly investigate the before mentioned maps concerning vulnerability. There are two adjacent areas with high risk to floods. Their features differ in many ways. One area has a high urban soil cover, shown in figure 3, whilst the other has low urban coverage, seen in figure 4. The low urban area has also more elevation differences than the mostly flat highly urbanized area. According to stage 2 these physical differences demand for different measures. For instance in the highly urbanized area it is useful to replace hard, concrete structures that
cover the soil, for vegetation to increase water infiltration. In the area which is dominated by elevation differences, it is recommended to improve and clear drainage systems to lead away water flows to the rivers. Because these areas border each other structural interventions must be reconsidered very carefully. Structural measures could counteract flood management in the other area.
These areas are economically prosperous thus financing learning systems will be no barrier. Good coordination of various stakeholders is more important. Adapting measurements must be done by experts on the
Conclusion
By the gathered data it is possible to concentrate efforts in the areas, classified as most vulnerable to floods. While the mitigation actions for the flood impacts has to be done in these most vulnerable areas, the reduction of water runoff, which causes floods in first place, has to be done in the whole watershed and it is a more time-demanding action.
In one hand, strong measures, in a short period of time, are capable of avoiding the river overflow to reach urban areas and also avoiding damage to property and to the vulnerable people. On the other hand, ample modifications in the environment tend to inflict several responses which could lead to more problems, instead of eliminating one.
The flexible measures act in the source of the problem and can bring the environment back to a state where it no longer causes disaster situations anymore and the coexistence between natural and urban environment can be more harmonic. However, flexible measures take time and demand adequate planning, which can only be achieved by good types of governance.
For the best results in the city of São Paulo, the integrated approach is, we believe, the best solution considering that it can demand an adequate amount of time along with handing the best results and no other side effects that could be inflicted by great structures.
Future Recommendations:
These conclusions consider that there remains a necessity for more in depth and detailed studies, done in future research. Whilst doing our own GIS research and combining it with the concept of vulnerability, we found that we have just scratched the surface of what can be achieved using GIS data and maps regarding adaptive capacity and the governance aiming at flood risk. Governance on several layers could potentially benefit from field research done in the vulnerable areas themselves. This field research should consist of surveys filled in by locals and local stakeholders, thereby making it possible to get more knowledge on what local problems are and what problems are considered as more severe. To enable future researchers to link this knowledge with GIS mapping, they should consider using Participatory GIS. In the late nineties of the previous century the US National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (NCGIA) found that the GIS on itself was lacking on the field of implementing participation.
They started the foundations of an approach by which GIS could be integrated with empowering the underprivileged through: “social learning, supporting two way communication and broadening public participation across socio-economic context and locations”(Rambaldi et al., 2006). This spurred fast development of community-based management of spatial information through, what has come to be known as, Participatory GIS. The practice is multidisciplinary, by integrating locals with external experts, local knowledge experts and other related institutions. It thereby builds on high levels of stakeholder participation in the process of spatial learning, decision making, and action. Geo-referencing and visualizing local spatial knowledge helps communities to engage in peer-to-peer dialogues and promotes their issues and concerns regarding higher levels of governance. The integrated process of which Participatory GIS is a component, gives communities confidence in interacting with outsiders and adds authority to local knowledge. A way in which Participatory GIS can be brought to the locals, is by using Participatory 3D Modelling (Rambaldi et al., 2006). Participatory 3D Modelling is a relatively new form of communication conceived to support collaborative processes related mainly to facilitate participation in problem analysis and decision-making. Rambaldi et al. (2006) found that “it integrates people’s knowledge and spatial information to produce stand-alone scale relief models that have proved to be user-friendly, relatively accurate data storage and analysis devices and at the same time excellent communication media”.
To summarize the above: besides the fact that gathering more in depth local information can be used to combine it with GIS to make maps and 3D models, which governance institutions can use to get easy access to clear overviews on detailed local data. This data can also lead to enhanced sharing of knowledge and enhanced participation, which could in turn have beneficial effects on the quality of flood awareness and health awareness campaigns. Thereby leading to enhanced adaptive capacity and less vulnerability of these areas of São Paulo.
Furthermore Participatory GIS can provide more detailed information on local wealth distribution per district. Whereas current GIS data is only able to provide general average numbers on wealth per district, in field research and mapping more in detail on where wealthy and poor people live can help in the process of decision-making on where and which measures (strong and/or flexible) should be taken into account.
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We conducted an interview with an expert on the São Paulo region. She is an PHD, currently involved in water governance. In the research we refer to her as “Interview 1: 19-12-2014”.
