The effects of trade with the European Union on women's rights : a mixed methods analysis of the development of women's rights in the Mahgreb

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The effects of trade with the European Union

on women’s rights

A mixed method analysis of the development of women’s rights in the Maghreb

In the last decade, the effects that globalization and economic policies like trade liberalization have on women’s rights have gained increasing attention. Gender equality is an important component of development and even more importantly, it has great normative value. The literature on the effects of trade liberalization on women’s rights is extensive and has explored different causal mechanisms. The literature on policy diffusion has recently started to study whether trade with higher standards countries could have a spill over effect on women’s rights. However, country-specific factors like oil and religious legislation are also known to influence women’s rights. This thesis aims to fill the gap in the policy diffusion literature by taking domestic factors like oil and religion into account. It will do so by studying the Maghreb region in a mixed methods design. The causal mechanism behind policy diffusion through trade with the European Union (EU) will be studied to gain more insight into the effects of trade with the EU on women’s rights in the Maghreb. This thesis reveals that the role of religion in politics has played a determining role in the development of women’s rights in Algeria and Tunisia. Domestic factors influence the spatial effect caused by trade and are crucial to increase our understanding of policy diffusion mechanisms.

Master Political Science International Relations Cécile Wansink | 10427597

Supervisor: Sijeong Lim Second Reader: Jana Krause June 2017

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5.3 Control variables: economic development, oil revenues, democracy and female labour force participation ... 27 5.4 Limitations ... 28 6. Quantitative analysis ... 30 6.1 Regression analysis ... 30 6.2 Trend analysis ... 32 7. Qualitative analysis ... 38 7.1 Case description ... 38 7.2 Historical context ... 40

7.3 Algeria after independence ... 41

7.4Tunisia after independence ... 42

7.5 Family law in the Maliki school of Islam ... 42

7.6 Family law in Algeria ... 44

7.7 Family law in Tunisia ... 47

7.8 Trade liberalization in Algeria and Tunisia ... 48

7.9 The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership ... 49

7.10 The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and gender equality ... 50

7.11 The effects of trade relations with the EU on family law ... 53

8. Conclusion ... 55

Discussion ... 57

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3 Appendix A ... 64 Appendix B... 71

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List of Abbreviations

EEC – European Economic Community ENP – European Neighbourhood Policy EU – European Union

EMP – Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

EuroMeSCo - Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission FIS- Front Islamique du Salut

FNL - Front de Libération Nationale IMF – International Monetary Fund

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1. Introduction

In the last couple of decades, gender inequality has gained increasing attention. Not only because there has been a realization that women’s rights are human rights, but it has also gained interest as an instrument for development (Powell, 2005:606). Besides the normative value of gender equality, gender inequality can have severe economic consequences (Busse & Spielman, 2006:362). Gender bias may reduce economic growth and may discourage workers from entering a job that bests suits them, which lowers the value of output. Less educated women remain less skilled and the consequential lower human capital has a negative effect on GDP growth. Also, inequality in resources could inhibit reduction in child mortality and fertility rates and prevents the expansion of education of the next generation (Klasen, 2000:2). The educational attainment levels of women are closely linked to these important development policy goals. The growing attention for gender equality in relation to development goals was illustrated by a World Bank report from 2012 that was entirely devoted to gender equality in light of development. It pointed at the positive influence that economic development may have on gender equality, like improvements in education, literacy and health (Potrafke & Ursprung, 2012:399).

An important strand of research on gender inequality focuses on how economic globalization and especially trade liberalization shapes trajectories of women’s empowerment. The literature on this subject is extensive and has explored different causal mechanisms. Some scholars claim that free trade produces aspects that negatively affect women via forced labour in the global supply chain and trafficking (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1065), many suggest that it has had positive effects on women’s rights. For one, trade liberalization may spark economic growth; globalization consequently can improve women’s rights via economic growth (ibid). Some scholars claim that trade with countries that have higher standards in women’s rights has a positive effect on the other country’s women’s rights (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1065, Potrafke & Ursprung, 2012:399). As will be reviewed in the following section, most empirical studies on this topic have focused on establishing the association between indicators of globalization (such as trade liberalization) on an indicator of women’s empowerment (e.g., female employment and the gender wage gap) in a large, cross-country setting (Potrafke&Ursprung, 2011:1). In these studies, the effect of a causal factor like the level of trade openness is often assumed to be uniform across different countries. However, a common globalization factor may have a varied effect across different countries, even those in the same region (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1068).

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6 Also, other factors that have long been known to have a profound influence on the status of women, such as religion and the presence of oil revenue , might condition the effect of economic

globalization (Rahman, 2012:34).

To explore such possibilities, this thesis will study the Maghreb, a region that comprises of five countries (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia) that differ in their level of women’s rights, religious influence on legislation, and the presence of oil (Hufbauer& Brunel, 2008:1). To do so, the following research question is adopted : ‘’What are the effects of trade with the European Union on women’s rights in the Maghreb?’’. While trade with the European Union (EU) has been recognized as an important potential driver of women’s empowerment in the diffusion literature (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1066), how its effect might play out in different settings has been understudied. Scholars have called for greater integration between qualitative and quantitative studies to explore mechanisms of diffusion, which is what this thesis will do by applying a mixed methods research design (Graham & Volden, 2013:695).

This thesis seeks to fill the gap in the literature by studying differences between countries in the Maghreb, and delving into the causal mechanism more deeply by factoring in a conditioning role of oil revenues and the role of religion in national legislation. It makes an important contribution to the existing knowledge on the causal mechanism behind policy diffusion and the effect of trade with higher standards- countries on women’s rights. It is important to study if and how countries can diffuse their policies, especially because topics like gender equality are often not directly taken into account when studying the effects of trade. As said before, women’s rights are human rights and it is therefore of vital importance to study what the effects of trade on gender issues are.

First of all, the existing literature on trade liberalization, policy diffusion, religion and the presence of oil will be set out. The gap in the literature will be identified and brought together in a section on the interplay between these different factors. Then, the hypotheses and methods that have been used will be discussed. The quantitative analysis consists of a regression analysis and a trend analysis. Based on these findings, Algeria and Tunisia have been selected for the comparative case studies. The comparative case studies will be carried out in the qualitative section, that studies the development of family law and trade relations with the EU in both countries. The differences and similarities between Algeria and Tunisia will be used to gain more insight into the causal mechanism behind policy diffusion by taking domestic factors into account. The conclusion will combine the results of the quantitative and qualitative section and relate these to the existing literature. The discussion section will place the results of this study into the broader context and makes some suggestions concerning the development of women’s rights in the Maghreb.

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2. Literature review

The literature on the effects of trade liberalization on women’s empowerment in the Maghreb can roughly be divided into two strands: one that identifies specific religious, cultural and economic determinants of gender inequality in Muslim-majority states and the other one that focuses on the structure of the economy and more specifically the effect of oil on female labour participation (Rahman, 2012:347). The first strand of literature argues that in countries like Algeria and Morocco, ‘’the unequal socio-political status of women is fundamentally due to, and sustained by, patriarchal kinship traditions and strict versions of Shari’a family law that are entwined in the socio-political order’’ (ibid).

The other part of literature uses evidence from Maghreb countries as well, arguing that countries like Tunisia that have developed through more traditional, export-led industrialization have more women in the labour force compared to states that are heavily dependent on external oil rents (idem:348).

This review will cover some of the most relevant literature on trade liberalization, policy diffusion, religion, the presence of oil and their relation to gender equality. As mentioned in the introduction, trade liberalization can be seen as part of economic globalization. Economic globalization can be defined as ‘’the international integration of markets for goods, services, and capital’’ (Brune & Garrett 2005:400). Firstly, some theories on trade liberalization and gender equality will be set out. In this part, there will first be attention to what trade liberalization policies actually are and how they alter the structure of the economy. The effects of these changes in the economy will then be linked to women’s position in the labour market. The concept of trade-based policy diffusion will be set out after.

Then I will turn to possible conditioning factors on the effects of trade liberalization on women’s rights, namely the presence of oil and religion. This will illustrate the existing knowledge on the subject, as well as the gap in the literature that this thesis aims to fill.

2.1 Trade liberalization and gender equality

In recent times, the number of developing countries that have adopted trade liberalization strategies has increased greatly (Fontana et al., 1998:6). Trade liberalization can support growth and development, but can also cause problems that make it difficult for developing countries to fully reap the benefits from trade. Trade liberalization stems from the neoliberal rationale, that assumes that increased openness to trade is beneficial to efficiency and economic growth.

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8 This rationale promotes specialization in a country’s comparative advantage, creating economies of scale by widening markets, better use of productive capacities, improved management methods and more attention to innovation and technological progress in response to international competition (ibid). Furthermore, an outward-oriented policy is often argued for as more effective than an inward-oriented policy, even when taking goals such as reducing poverty and inequality into account.

Some examples of trade liberalization are decreasing tariff and non-tariff barriers, implementation of competition policies, elimination of behind-the-border measures and enforcement of intellectual property rights. These policies impact the prices and production of goods and services, fiscal revenues, employment and the balance of payments (Nicita &Zarrilli, 2010:205). Nicita and Zarrilli agree with Fontana et al. that trade liberalization is generally conducive to export-led growth (ibid). The relationship between trade liberalization and gender equality can be studied on macro, meso and micro level (Fontana, 2009:25). The analysis on a macro level focuses on changes in ‘’the labour division between men and women across different productive market and reproductive nonmarket sectors’’ (idem:26). On a meso level, the analysis studies the institutions that structure the distribution of resource and activities on a micro level. This involves gender inequalities in public provision and gender biases in the rules of operation of labour, commodity and other markets. The gender division of labour, resources and decision making are being studied in more detail in micro analysis, mostly within households (ibid).

Several studies have shown that export promotion and trade liberalization policies lead to the feminization of the labour force in developing countries (Ozler, 2000:1239). Increases in trade are expected to drive up the relative demand for female labour because they are often overrepresented in export-oriented sectors in developing countries (Oostendorp, 2009:151).The reasoning behind these theories is as follows: women are often low-skilled in developing countries, and low-income countries have a comparative advantage in the production of goods that are relatively intensive in low-skilled labour (Potrafke & Ursprung, 2012:400). Therefore, women will gain from freer trade. According to Nicita and Zarrilli, working and earning money is a strong force behind women’s empowerment and their say in decision-making within as well as outside the household (Nicita &Zarrilli, 2010:204).

But even so, Nicita and Zarrilli state that trade policies have redistributive effects that often favour those individuals who are better suited to confront the challenges and opportunities of integrated markets (Nicita &Zarrilli, 2010:204).The benefits from trade liberalization are often relatively lower and more volatile for women than for men.

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9 The effects of trade liberalization tend to be different across gender due to cultural, economic and social factors. Women in developing countries have a relative disadvantage in the adaptation problem that is caused by trade liberalization. This adaptation problem originates in the relative disadvantages women in developing countries have in terms of education, command over resources and in gaining access to credit, training, marketing networks and new technologies (idem:205).Since any negative impact of trade integration requires adaptation and this is harder on women, the opening to international markets might be more difficult for women. When globalization results in a transfer of technology to low-wage countries, high-skilled workers will benefit. So if women are less skilled than men, globalization will benefit men more than women (Potrafke & Ursprung, 2012:400). These factors can channel women into low-income, low productivity and casual employment, which make them more vulnerable to poverty (Fontana et al., 1998:90). As long as there is an abundance of unemployed females available in developing countries, women thus face more challenges in

confronting international markets (ibid).

Another argument on the negative effects of globalization is that ever-increasing competition and market-oriented reform leads to cuts in social programs and this is more damaging for women’s well-being than it is to men’s (Cho, 2011:4). Also, some scholars argue that better rights for women would add to production costs, making a country less competitive in globalized markets and thus providing an incentive not to improve women’s economic and social rights (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1066).

On the other hand, Becker’s model of discrimination emphasizes the positive effect of increased competition on women’s position in the labour market. (Black & Brainerd, 2004:540). In this model, Becker assumes that some employers have a ‘taste for discrimination’ against women, that will lead to them hiring fewer than the profit-maximizing number of women, by hiring more men that are equally skilled but more highly paid (idem:541). Employers that do not discriminate can then drive discriminating employers out of the market because discrimination is costly. An increasingly competitive market will therefore cause the gender wage gap to narrow (ibid). Increased global trade means increased competition, and this should lead to a minimization of gender discrimination. However, Neumayer and De Soysa concluded in an earlier study that the gender wage gap is not an ideal measure to study women’s empowerment because there are other forms of discrimination (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1066).

According to Fontana, the effects of trade liberalization on women depend on ‘’which factors of production experience a rise in demand as well as the prevailing gender norms regulating ownership of the factors that stand to gain’’ (Fontana, 2009:27).

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10 The effects of trade are thus likely to vary among women. Women’s ability to seize new opportunities depends on their education, skills, age and the social norms and obligations that prevail in their communities and households (ibid).

Factors like women’s employment can be labelled as practical gender needs, that contribute to their material status (Fontana, 2009:28). Nevertheless, it is important to assess whether these needs truly contribute to more egalitarian gender relations in the long term (ibid). As long as the demand for female labour is based on the acceptance of poor payment and exploitation, participation in the labour market does not mean economic empowerment (Cho, 2011:4).Therefore, this study will focus on women’s rights instead of their employment. In the next paragraph, the literature on how trade can cause policies to diffuse will be set out and linked to women’s rights.

2.2 Trade-based policy diffusion

An extensive field of literature on trade liberalization and women’s rights has emerged in recent years. However, these typically analyse the effect of trade on women’s empowerment in general, without taking into account with whom a country trades (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1066). Academics that claim a positive effect of openness to trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on women’s rights argue that by increasing the opportunities for women, they can challenge traditional patterns, partly due to the advance of modernization (ibid).

Greenhill et al. have studied whether trade can help to improve labour rights in developing countries. They have examined if there exists a so-called ‘’California effect’’, in which the key export markets exert upward pressures on outcomes in producer nations (Greenhill et al., 2009:669). They expect that multinationals from countries with higher standards have a spill over effect on local companies in the same supply chain (idem:670). Multinationals often bring their ‘good practices’ to developing countries and because of the sizable externalities that they create, the good practices are often adopted throughout the economy. They argue that this is not accountable to the level of trade of a country, but who a country’s trade partners are (idem:671). Their study provides quantitative evidence that exporting destinations have an effect on the labour standards of developing countries (idem:684). They did not find an effect of trade openness and conclude that it matters with whom developing countries trade instead of how much. Their conclusion is that trade is a conduit for the diffusion of norms regarding labour standards (ibid).

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11 Neumayer and De Soysa’s theory on spatial dependence argues for a similar diffusion, between trade and women’s rights. Spatial dependence can be defined as ‘’The phenomenon where policies, standards or similar choices of one unit of analysis depend on the choices of other units of analysis’’ (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1066). Neumayer and De Soysa have studied whether there is spatial dependence in women’s economic and social rights working via trade and FDI (ibid). They hypothesize that trade and FDI link countries with high standards of women’s rights to countries with low standards and thereby create a spill-over effect through spatial dependence. Sceptics of globalization argue the contrary, namely that trade and FDI links are exploitative, leading to the lowering of standards due to the profit motives of globalized capital via a race to the bottom, or at least leading to a reluctance of the laggards to raise standards (ibid).The causal mechanism that Neumayer and De Soysa employ focuses on the macro level, via FDI and trade linkages. In an increasingly globalized world, advocacy networks provide transparency and information to consumers, thereby creating awareness (ibid). Globalized companies are also likely to be more sensitive to image than local companies because they have to deal with increasing competition. This can be linked to the idea that increased trade liberalization causes policy diffusion (idem:1071). Diffusion can be defined as ‘’the interdependent process that is conducive to the spread of policies, not the extent of convergence that can result from it’’ (Gilardi, 2012:454). There are several reasons to believe that policies diffuse from one country to another. First of all, the successes or failures from a policy in one country can affect the decision to implement a similar policy in a different country (Maggetti & Gilardi, 2016:87). Secondly, a policy can be adopted because it is highly valued by peers, provides legitimacy or is widely accepted as an appropriate response to a given problem or situation. And lastly, policies can diffuse in order to maintain or improve one’s competitiveness (idem:88). Each one of these arguments refer to a different diffusion mechanism, namely competition, emulation or learning (ibid). Neumayer and De Soysa include coercion as well, which means that a given unit adopts policy following pressure from powerful countries or international organizations (idem:90). They do however argue that strict coercion does not appear often and that pressure and persuasion are more likely to be part of the policy diffusion mechanism (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1066). According to Maggetti and Gilardi, ‘’ diffusion implies that no central actors are coordinating the spread of a policy’’, which is why they do not include it in their analysis. (Maggetti & Gilardi, 2016:90). Nevertheless, since this study considers the EU as a central actor, the possibility of coercion might be worth looking at in the qualitative analysis.

Competition occurs when one unit reacts to the actions of another unit to attract or retain resources (idem:91).

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12 Simmons and Elkins have found that countries are more likely to liberalize their economic policies along the same line as countries with which it shares similar trade relationships, and that could be seen as competitor (Simmons & Elkins, 2004:173).

Emulation is a process in which norms diffuse not because of their objective characteristics, but because of their normative and socially constructed properties (Gilardi, 2012:466). In this mechanism, states shift from the ‘’ logic of consequences’’ to the ‘’logic of appropriateness’’. This assumption is more or less implicitly at the basis of all the aforementioned mechanisms. Compliance with for instance EU conditionality is in first instance a strategic shift, but it can induce a change of preferences in the long term (idem:467). The adaption of certain roles in particular settings, called ‘’role playing’’, can start without a full internationalization of norms, but by interacting with others change into a genuine understanding of these norms. Emulation is thus not related to the objective consequences of a policy, but the characteristics of the policy are of symbolic value (Maggetti & Gilardi, 2016:91). The process of learning is defined as ‘’a process where policies in one unit are influenced by the consequences of similar policies in other units’’ (idem:90). The adoption of a certain policy in one unit is thus more likely when it has been successful in another unit. Success can be dependent on the goals that the policy is designed to achieve, the challenges of its implementation or its political support (idem:91). The mechanism is schematically illustrated in Figure 1, where the different levels in the process of policy diffusion are illustrated. One could add coercion at the secondary level, with the indicator level being treaties, agreements or partnerships where certain policies are conditional to participate.

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13 There are several indicators for mechanisms of policy diffusion, but this thesis will focus on trade flows, since the null hypothesis that is being tested is based upon trade as well. This indicator looks at trade partners and gives more importance to countries with whom the studied country exchanges many goods and services (idem:94). This can be indicative of a competitive relationship, but it can also be indicative of a more general connection between the countries(ibid). Although emulation and learning effects probably do not exclusively stem from one’s trading and foreign investment partners, possible effects do depend on cues for normatively desirable behaviour. Such cues are likely to come in part from trading partners and investors from other countries, who provide direct personal contact and thus create a direct contrast and comparison to domestic standards (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1067).

Despite the extensive literature on the subject, the causal mechanisms behind the theory is understudied. Much of the existing literature focuses on providing evidence for the mere existence of spatial policy dependence (Neumayer & Plümper, 2004:820). Almost none of the existing studies provide more information on the causal mechanisms through which policy choices become spatially dependent. Similarly, empirical studies usually do not explicitly test for heterogeneity among recipients of spatial effects. The predictions that are derived from theories on spatial dependence are thus not yet linked properly to the empirical research on the subject (ibid).

Simmons and Elkins have found that governments are sensitive to external signals to liberalize and to restrict their monetary and financial policies (Simmons & Elkins, 2004:186). Spatial clustering supports the proposition that something systematic must be driving states’ policies, like policy diffusion (ibid). They did however find that in this particular process, governments tend to liberalize and restrict the capital account, current account, and exchange rate regime along the lines of countries with which they share a religious identity (ibid). According to these findings, countries that have the same religious majority are expected to share a similar trade liberalization trajectory. It also suggests that religion has some kind of effect on the process of policy diffusion concerning trade liberalization. Despite the shared religious identity of the Maghreb, there is variation within the region when it comes to women’s rights and the process of trade liberalization (Marshall & Stokes, 1981:640).

As aforementioned, theories on learning as part of spatial dependence suppose that positive examples can create convergence (Neumayer & Plümper, 2012:824). Most scholars see learning as an unintentional process that is caused by interaction and communication with other policy makers.

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14 Many of those scholars assume that this process is dependent on direct interaction, which means that if the frequency and intensity of direct communication increases, it becomes more likely that diffuse learning occurs. However, different governments will have different levels of exposure to such learning environments (ibid). Exposure to learning is thus heterogeneous and differs between different countries (idem:825). Responsiveness of governments to outside learning stimuli also differs. For instance, the economy and the stability of the political system might have an effect on responsiveness (ibid). Several theorists on learning predict that political systems and other domestic factors exert an influence on the spatial effect itself (idem:821). They highlight that the interaction between domestic and external factors needs more research. Exploration of the mechanisms of diffusion offers an opportunity for greater integration between qualitative and quantitative studies (Graham & Volden, 2013:695).

2.3 Religion and gender inequality

Religion is said to be an important factor when it comes to a country’s level of gender equality. Protestantism, for instance is said to have a positive influence on gender equality via education, while Islam has shown to have a negative influence on gender equality (Potrafke&Ursprung, 2012:407). They found that it is especially hard to advocate the adoption for gender equality in countries with a large Muslim population (Potrafke&Ursprung, 2011:18). However, it should be noted that this study focuses on the institutionalization of religion, instead of the percentage of the population that is Muslim.

Alexander and Welzel have studied support for patriarchal values and found that Muslims were more supportive of patriarchal values than non-Muslims in every regression model (Alexander & Welzel, 2011:271). The results remained robust when controlling for numerous factors, like sex, age and education. The results also hold in each type of society, whether the society’s economy was oil-based, democratic, mobilizes women in the workforce and whether it was patriarchal or religious in its power structures (ibid). However, they also found that Muslims are by no means a homogeneous social category when it comes to patriarchal values, since they found considerable variation over inner-societal divisions (idem:272). Their findings support the view that education and employment play a crucial role in the erosion of patriarchal values, and that this effect is stronger among Muslim women than Muslim men (ibid). According to this study, higher levels of education and employment can lead to a weakening of support for patriarchal values.

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15 Norris and Inglehart have studied what causes the ‘’clash of civilization’’ between the Western world and the Islamic world. They found that ‘’ citizens of Muslim societies are significantly less supportive of equal rights and opportunities for women’’ (Rizzo et al., 2007:1152). They see a relationship between Islam as state religion and gender inequality in the Arab world. Other scholars have done more specific research into this subject, focusing on family law. They claim that family law can reinforce the patriarchal family structures that limit the empowerment of women (idem:10). In Tunisia, family law is drawn mostly from secular sources, but in the other countries in the Maghreb region, it is (mostly or solely) based on the Sharia (ibid). This matters because ‘’ Traditional interpretations of the Sharia differentiate between men and women in the allocation of rights and responsibilities and typically place women in the position of minors and dependents’’(ibid). Some scholars argue that the high degree of subordination of women and girls in Muslim countries does not only have an effect on life in the family and communities, but on higher levels as well (Fish, 2002 :24). According to lawyer and human rights activist Asma Khadar, ‘’Family law is the key to the gate of freedom and human rights for women’’ (Charrad, 2004:1).

Rahman argues that most studies on the influence of Islam treats Muslim-majority states as homogeneous units, but that there are important distinctions over the extent to which different countries institutionalize Islamic tradition (Rahman, 2012:348). According to her, taking these differences into account might be critical to explain the variation in gender equality outcomes in these countries. Charrad agrees that family law is at the core of Islamic tradition, but also emphasizes that Islamic law is not a legal manual that lends itself to a single interpretation (Charrad, 2011:420). According to her, it is rather a set of ‘’ethical imperatives that can translate into various rules and behaviours’’ (ibid). Other scholars also argue that there are important differences between different Muslim countries (Rizzo et al., 2007:1152). The same study found that although Morocco and Tunisia are quite similar when it comes to socioeconomic factors, Tunisia has more equal gender norms. They also reformed their family laws, while Morocco did not make significant changes. This could explain the differences in gender norms. However, this study did not take the reform of family law in 2004 in Morocco into account.

Also, family law in Tunisia was in principle based on Islam and got more female-friendly over the years. Charrad mentions that this illustrates the importance of institutions (Charrad, 2009:551). However, she does not make the connection with religion and family law directly. If one would make this connection, the source of previous inequality could be Islam, and the changes in family law can be seen as less religious.

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16 Clark et al. found that women in countries with an Islamic tradition were substantially more likely to have seen their labour force status erode between 1960 and 1980 than women elsewhere (Clark et al., 1991:60). They suggest that this trend could be caused by the resurgence of Islamic fundamentalism in some Islamic nations (ibid). These findings suggest that the possible influence of Islamic fundamentalism needs to be taken into account in studies on women’s emancipation.

2.4 The presence of oil and gender inequality

Ross has argued that women in oil-rich countries are systematically disadvantaged because of a lack of industrialization and modernization (Ross, 2008:107). His study implies that it is not Islam religion that is the key factor in the underrepresentation of women in the workforce and government, but the presence of oil and minerals (ibid). Gender based segregation in the labour market plays a crucial role in Michael Ross’ theory. He argues that the reason that many Islam countries are behind in women’s empowerment is caused by the presence of oil, not religion (idem:107). To illustrate this, he modifies the ‘’Dutch disease’’ model to reflect gender-based segregation in the labour market (idem:110). First of all, oil booms lead to a shift away from the traded sector to the nontraded sector. In most developing countries, women work in the traded sector, in export-oriented factories and agriculture. They are excluded in most parts of the nontraded sector such as retail and construction, since most of these jobs entail heavy labour or contact with men outside of the family. A boom in oil production will increase the demand for workers as well as increase wages in the non-traded sector, which in this model is dominated by men. The trade sector, which is dominated by women, will decline and thereby demand for workers as well as wages will decrease. Also, booming oil exports have a positive effect on government revenues, which will result in higher government transfers to households (idem:110). Higher male wages and an increase in household revenues will reduce the supply of female labour and thus

reduce female labour participation.

Schultz has found that there are strong negative associations of natural resource exports with education and survival. According to his study, a greater reliance on natural resources for exports is associated with greater gender inequality in terms of education and survival (Schultz, 2006:28). Both female and male educational attainment are much lower in countries where natural resource exports are a larger fraction of income (idem:32). Yet, an increase in exports other than natural resources is strongly associated with higher levels of education and health for men as well as women

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17 Karshenas and Moghadam argue that the lack of feminization of the labour force in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) is caused by persistent patriarchal family structures and gender structures (Karshenas & Moghadam, 2014:434). However, the persistence of these structures are due to oil and remittance income, since it places income in the hands of male household members and thereby contribute to the luxury to keep ‘’their’’ women at home. As another possible explanation, they point to the macroeconomic impact of oil revenues on the structure of labour demand.

They argue for the same causal mechanism as Ross does; the appreciation of the real exchange rate that occurs in oil-exporting countries reduces the international competitiveness of tradable industries and thereby prevents feminization of the labour force (ibid).

Since few studies look at how trade liberalization effect is moderated by religion and oil, these are now separate sets of literature on women’s empowerment. I am building on to the literature on policy diffusion by arguing that this process is conditioned by domestic factors like oil and religion, as I will illustrate in a within-region setting. Studying this interaction will enable me to grasp a fuller picture of the effects of globalization on women’s rights. In the following section, I will justify my case selection by linking the existing theory to my case and illustrate why this case will help me to answer the research question.

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3. Women’s rights in the Maghreb: The interplay of trade

liberalization, the presence of oil and Islam

Women’s status in Muslim-majority countries has gained increasing interest in the last couple of decades. Moghadam wrote that although young women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are healthier and better educated than their mothers, they still face great obstacles finding jobs and playing active roles in society (Moghadam, 1994:9). The relatively low levels of female employment have been linked to culture, the presence of oil and social institutions. Low levels of female employment are linked to higher levels of gender inequality in society (ibid).

The World Bank has stated that the MENA (which the Maghreb is part of) failed to take advantage of the expansion of world trade and FDI in the 1980s and 1990s, and it is still one of the least integrated regions in the world (Moghadam 2007:82). Moghadam states that the countries that do receive substantial levels of FDI are the ones that have instituted adjustment policies from the World Bank and are politically most stable (idem:83). Countries that have substantial oil reserves have remained dependent on oil exports to increase foreign exchange earnings (ibid).

Feminist organizations in the region have become more vocal and visible in demanding increased participation in society and getting more rights (Moghadam, 2007:78). Calls for legal reform mainly centre on family law and better labour legislation. Trade liberalization is said to have had a mixed impact on the region (idem:98). According to Moghadam, female labour participation has increased, but this is caused as much from economic necessity and state imperatives as from women’s own aspirations. States imperatives include changes in labour laws that reflect the new economic realities of flexible labour markets, while avoiding a legitimation crisis by introducing 'modern' forms of social protection and non-discrimination (idem:84).

Scholars have documented the diversity of women’s rights within the Muslim world, and have been searching for what factors could explain this diversity (Charrad, 2009:547). However, as became clear from the literature review, the literature on these different factors is far from integrated. Charrad argues that if we are to develop a fuller and more nuanced understanding of macro processes that shape gender inequality in the Muslim Middle East, the focus must be on analysing how different factors like oil, patriarchal structures and politics come together to produce different

outcomes in times and places within the region (ibid).

On the other hand, there is the literature on policy diffusion that argues for a positive spill over effect caused by increased trade with countries that have better women’s rights. In 1995, the Euro -Mediterranean Partnership originated and created a platform for economic, political and social cooperation between the Mediterranean countries and the EU (Gavin, 2005:353).

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19 This partnership will be analysed to get more insight into the relationship between the Maghreb and the European Union. It will be used to study whether increased trade has caused a diffusion of norms and policies. The EMP has increased direct communication between policymakers, which according to some theorists is necessary for the process of learning to occur (Neumayer & Plümper, 2012:824). Diffuse learning is expected to be more likely if the frequency and intensity of such communication increases. Responsiveness to learning can also be a function of the state of the economy and the stability of the system, which are domestic factors (idem:825).

Both oil and the influence of religion on legislation are country specific factors that have been studied independently, but not together. To answer the question whether a policy diffusion mechanism might be conditioned by one of the other factors, a qualitative study should be carried out to study differences within a region into more detail.

The Maghreb is a region that comprises five countries (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia) that differ in their level of women’s rights, religious influence on legislation, and the presence of oil (Hufbauer& Brunel, 2008:1). The definition of the Maghreb is not completely agreed upon, since some people do not view Libya and Mauritania as part of it. Since the countries themselves do include those and they form l'Union du Maghreb Arabe (Arab Maghreb Union) together, the decision has been made to choose this definition of the Maghreb (Website Arab Maghreb Union, 2017). The Maghreb region is punctuated by mountain ranges and is continuously covered by great expanses of the Sahara to the south (Bell &Finaish, 1994:16). It’s geographical location is illustrated by Figure 2. Classical Arabic is the official language, but dialects and Berber are also being used for daily communication. With the exception of Libya, all countries have been colonized by France and French is therefore used as the language of communication with the outside world (ibid). Islam is often being called a unifying and binding factor of the region, even though different policies towards religious practice have been adopted by the various political leaders. Algeria, Libya and Tunisia have oil revenues (idem:17). All countries of the Maghreb depend heavily on the EU, which is their main economic partner (Bell & Finaish, 1994:30). The Maghreb countries have a history of being colonized, and followed different paths after they gained independence. According to some scholars, the structure of the political elite and tribal influences has played an important role in these differences (Marshall & Stokes, 1981:640). Linking this to the theory on learning, these characteristics of domestic politics might play an important role in the policy diffusion mechanism.

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20 It is therefore a case that is outstandingly suitable to explore whether trade with the EU has had a positive effect on women’s rights in the Maghreb because it has weakened the influence of religion on gender issues or if trade with the EU did not have a positive influence on women’s rights because domestic factors have had a conditioning effect on the policy diffusion mechanism.

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4. Hypotheses

In this section, the hypotheses that will be tested will be clarified. The null hypothesis is as follows:

 H0: Trade liberalization has had a positive effect on women’s rights in the Maghreb because of spatial dependence on the European Union, working via trade.

The null hypothesis is mostly based on Neumayer and De Soysa’s theory on spatial dependence. They argue that trade links countries with higher standards of women’s rights to countries with low standards. The EU consists of countries with higher standards of women’s rights and has engaged in increased trade relations with the Maghreb. The causal mechanism that they employ is that increased trade leads to more transparency and information to consumers, which creates awareness. Companies that are dependent on trade with countries that have higher standards are also likely to be more sensitive to factors that could harm their image, because they have to deal with increasing competition. Also, there is a partnership between (among others) the Maghreb and the EU, that could lead to mechanisms like learning and emulation. The null hypothesis will first be tested in the quantitative analysis to find out whether trade with the EU has had a significant effect

on women’s rights in the Maghreb.

To study the causal mechanism behind this effect, the two alternative hypotheses will further be tested in the qualitative section, on the basis of the comparative case studies. The quantitative section will focus on women’s economic and political rights, while the qualitative section will focus on family law. Family law is an important part of social rights, which cannot be tested in the quantitative analysis due to a lack of data availability. Trade relations with the EU in general will shortly be set out but the emphasis will be on the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP). This will be studied in the qualitative section to gain more knowledge on possible policy diffusion working via trade. Coercion might be part of the EMP, if for instance Maghreb states need to implement certain policies to keep participating in the partnership. Increased trade with the EU could also lead to processes of emulation, because it increases interaction and that might form new socially constructed properties. Learning mechanisms are also more likely to occur, because direct interaction between policy makers from different countries increases.

The first alternative hypothesis takes the possible influence of Islam on women’s rights into account, but expects trade liberalization to weaken this influence because of a spatial effect. Increased trade might cause mechanisms of policy diffusion that change the norms that before were determined by Islam. The alternative hypothesis is as follows:

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22  H1: Trade with the EU has had a positive effect on women’s rights in the Maghreb because it

has weakened the influence of religion on gender issues.

The second alternative hypothesis takes a possible conditioning effect of domestic factors on the policy diffusion mechanism into account. The mechanism behind this is that responsiveness to learning is said to be influenced by the economy and political system of a country. The second alternative hypothesis is therefore constructed as follows:

• H2: Trade with the EU did not have a positive influence on women’s rights because domestic factors have a conditioning effect on the policy diffusion mechanism.

In order to test these hypotheses, the development of family law in Algeria and Tunisia will be studied, as well as their trade relations with the EU. The EMP will be studied to explore if women’s rights play a role in the interaction between the EU and the Maghreb. This could say something about the presence of emulation and learning mechanisms. Strict coercion could also be part of the partnership. The development of family law and the political context of both countries will be studied to find out if there are domestic factors that might have influenced a spatial effect.

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5. Methods

To answer my research question and study my hypotheses, I will use a mixed methods approach. This will add to the completeness of the research, by filling the gap that is left by the quantitative section with the qualitative part (Bryman, 2012:637). The quantitative study will tell us whether there is a relationship between trade with the EU, while the qualitative section is meant to explain it

(idem:641).

Firstly, I will execute a regression analysis in which all Maghreb countries will be studied. The quantitative section is primarily meant to relate this study to the previous literature on spatial diffusion, that tends to adopt a large, cross regional sample of countries. The quantitative analysis that will be carried out will test whether the key findings from the spatial dependence literature hold in the case of the Maghreb. It relates to the null hypothesis and will be focused on testing whether trade with the EU has had an effect on women’s rights or not. After this, an analysis of trends in the dependent and variables will be made for all of the Maghreb countries separately. Based on this analysis, two countries will be selected for the comparative case study. The comparative case study is meant to gain more insight into the countries and the effects that trade with the EU has had on women’s rights. It will be used to test the two alternative hypotheses, that are meant to gain more insight into a possible conditioning effect of Islam and whether this possible effect has been influenced by the increased trade relations with the EU. Due to a lack of data, the quantitative section will only study the period between 1981 and 2011. The qualitative section will focus on a longer period and pays special attention to the historical, political and economic context of both cases. The cases that will be selected should therefore differ when it comes to women’s rights, while being relatively similar in respect to the independent variables. Women’s rights will be measured quantitatively with the CIGI Index, but in order to get a full picture, women’s rights need to be studied more in-depth in the comparative case study. This is of special concern since the quantitative section will focus on women’s economic and political rights. The available data on social rights could not be used for the quantitative studies. The qualitative section will therefore focus on family law, which is part of social rights. It will also analyse relations with the EU in general and more specifically the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) where both the EU and the Maghreb countries are members of. Together, this will provide a more detailed study on the development of women’s rights and policy diffusion.

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24 The Maghreb region is chosen because it features several characteristics that -according to the existing literature- could have an influence on women’s rights. Trade with the European Union accounts for a substantial part of total trade in the entire region, some of the countries have oil revenues and all of them have Islam as the state religion, but legislation differs . The qualitative part is essential to explain why countries in this region show different results when it comes to the relationship between trade with the EU and women’s rights. The effect of religion might interact or have a mitigating effect on a possible effect of trade with the EU, but the change of family law cannot be tested in the quantitative section and since all countries have Islam as a state religion, using this as a measurement would be inadequate.

The political situation in the Maghreb region has been complex, not only in the countries themselves but also in neighbouring countries. Since the Arab Spring has had a profound influence on the political (and therefore likely the economic) situation, I will not study the countries further than 2011. Due to limited data availability, the quantitative section will focus on the period between 1981 and 2011. The comparative case studies cover a longer period of time, namely after Algeria and Tunisia gained independence from France (in 1962 and 1956) (Website BBC 1 & 2, 2017). In addition, the historical context from before this period will shortly be set out as well.

In the following paragraphs I will explain the different variables and their specific indicators, that are being used for this study.

5.1 Dependent variable: women’s rights

The dependent variable is women’s rights, measured as women’s economic and women’s political rights from the CIRI dataset.

Women’s rights will be measured as women’s economic and political rights. This way, the model is better fitted, since there is more variation. The Cingranelli and Richards database for human rights provides data on human rights between 1981-2011 (Website CIGI database, 2014). They provide data on women’s political and economic rights that seem comprehensible. This set seems comprehensible since it covers political and economic rights and covers the time frame that will be studied. I have chosen to study rights, which of course has limitations since these are just formal rules, but the database codifies the extent to which the rights are being enforced, so this is relatively well solved (ibid). Also, the qualitative study will add a more nuanced component to the study. The ordinal scale of the data which codes rights from 0 to 3 takes implementation into account as well, which is important to keep in mind when interpreting the results. I argue that this is a good measurement because legal rights are determinant for women’s empowerment in these countries.

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25 Rights can be restrictive in such a way that for instance earning an income alone does not have a significant impact on women’s empowerment. If a woman cannot make decisions by herself according to the law, earning an income is not enough to create empowerment. The effects of trade liberalization on political and economic rights can be mitigated by cultural factors though, so I would like to dig deeper into this in the qualitative part of my study. Women’s political and economic rights are operationalized as follows:

Political rights:

• The right to vote;

• The right to run for political office;

• The right to hold elected and appointed government positions; • The right to join political parties;

• The right to petition government officials.

Women’s political rights are coded as two things: one is the extensiveness of laws pertaining to women’s political rights, and the other is government practices towards women or how effectively the government enforces these laws.

(0) None of women’s political rights are guaranteed by the law. There are laws in place that completely restrict women’s participation in the political process.

(1) Political equality is guaranteed by law. But, in practice there are significant limitations. Women hold less than five percent of seats in national legislature and in other high-ranking government positions.

(2) Political equality is guaranteed by law. Women hold more than five but less than thirty percent of seats in the national legislature and/or in other high-ranking government positions.

(3) Political equality is guaranteed by law and in practice. Women hold more than thirty percent of seats in the national legislature and/or in other high-ranking government positions.

Economic rights:

• Equal pay for equal work;

• Free choice of profession or employment without the need to obtain a husband or male relatives consent;

• The right to gainful employment without the need to obtain a husband or male relatives consent;

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26 • Equality in hiring and promotion practices;

• Job security (maternity leave, unemployment benefits, no arbitrary firing or layoffs, etc.); • Non-discrimination by employers;

• The right to be free from sexual harassment in the workplace; • The right to work at night;

• The right to work in occupations classified as dangerous; • The right to work in the military and the police force.

Rights like equal inheritance and the right to initiate divorce are part of family law, which can be studied in more detail in the comparative case study-part. This set seems comprehensible for the quantitative analysis since it covers political and economic rights and covers the time frame that will be studied. I have chosen to study rights, which has limitations since these are just formal rules, but the database codifies the extent to which the rights are being enforced, so this is relatively well solved (ibid). The ordinal scale of the data which codes rights from 0 to 3 is quite nuanced which fits this research since differences between the countries are expected to not be that big.

5.2 Main independent variable: trade with the EU

Trade with the EU is the main independent variable measured as % of export to the EU as % of total export (COW dataset). The dataset however only provided data on the separate countries, so the variable was composed of these data. The number of EU members has increased through the years, which means that an increase in the percentage of total trade is likely to happen automatically. Since this is the same for all the countries, this should not be a problem for the comparison that will be made.

For the trade data on export from Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, the Correlates Of War (COW) database has been used. However, this database did not provide data on the EU as a whole. The changes in the number of member countries have been taken into account by composing the total number of EU for each year separately and adding new member countries (Website EU 1, 2017). Therefore, this unit has been created by adding export from the separate member states up. In the data base, missing data is coded as -9. Since this gives a distorted picture when added up at the other numbers, this has been compensated by afterwards adding all the -9 values to the total number. The total number of export to the EU in a given year has then been divided to the total export and multiplied by hundred, so the numbers are now converted to percentages of total export.

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27 I have chosen to focus on exports, since the policy diffusion mechanism that I am studying implies that the EU has some sort of power over other countries, that make cause a spill over effect of their policies on women’s rights. Exporting a big part of one’s goods and services to a country or receiving most FDI from it is an important reason why a country should adopt better policies, since not doing it might cause negative externalities (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1067). The EU is the biggest and therefore most crucial importer of goods and services from the Maghreb, which is why they are chosen as the countries with higher standards in women’s rights (Bell & Finaish, 1994:30).

5.3 Control variables: economic development, oil revenues, democracy level and

female labour participation

The control variables are:

• Economic development measured as GDP per capita; • Oil revenues in % of GDP;

• Democracy level (Polity 2);

• Female labour participation as the ratio female to male (ILO estimate via the World Bank). The control variables are GDP per capita and the Polity2 variable that measures a country’s level of democracy. Economic development has been shown to have a significant positive effect on the status of women (Forsythe & Korzeniewicz, 2000:605). To make sure that a possible effect of trade with the EU is not caused by economic development we use GDP as an indicator (Website World Bank 1, 2017). Polity2 is included as a control variable because it is an indicator of a country’s level of democracy and higher levels of democracy are associated with more gender equality (Beer, 2009:2012). It is likely that because women have more voice in democratic societies, this translates into better rights for them (Neumayer & De Soysa, 2011:1069). The Polity2 variable is a modified version from the Polity variable, that measures a country’s level of democracy from -10 (strongly autocratic) to +10(strongly democratic) (Website POLITY IV 2, 2016:6). It is modified in such a way that is can be used in time series analyses like this one (Website POLITY IV 2, 2016:7).

Unfortunately, the available data on religion only provides information every five years. This means that it could not be taken into account in the regression analyses. However, the available data do tell us something about between-country differences. All countries are very similar in their percentage of Islam population, and they do not change much over time (Maoz & Henderson, 2003). This means that if Islam has some effect on women’s rights, the influence of Islam in for instance family law should be studied into more detail to find possible differences between the countries.

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28 As aforementioned, other characteristics of domestic politics might have an effect on the policy diffusion mechanism. It is therefore of great significance to take the history of the two countries in the comparative case studies into account when analysing trade relations with the EU and family law.

Since studies on the effect of oil revenues on women’s rights have made an important contribution to the subject, the presence of oil will be included as a control variable in the quantitative section. To make sure that a possible effect of oil revenues is not caused by a change in trade with the EU, an interaction variable will be introduced. In recognition of the extensive literature on the effects of trade liberalization on female labour force participation, this variable will be added to the regression analysis as well. To control whether changes in female labour force participation have had an influence on women’s rights, this will be used as a control variable in the regression analyses that use women’s rights as the dependent variable. It will thus be used to control whether a possible effect of trade is not purely caused by increased female labour force participation. A different regression will be carried out using female labour force participation instead of women’s rights as a dependent variable. This will be carried out to see whether trade with the EU has had an effect on female labour force participation.

5.4 Limitations

It is important to note that a linear regression analysis is not always the best option when the dependent variable is measured on a scale level. An ordinal model might fit better, but this did not give trustworthy results, because of the little variance in women’s rights. Also, turning our

dependent variable into a time series variable where the difference between one year and the other would be used could have been helpful. However, because of the relatively small observations, taking out the first number of each series narrowed the sample size too much to generate valid results. Luckily, this does not undermined the reliability of the results, since the measures that are devised for the concepts are consistent (Bryman, 2012:46). The results of the analysis are thus

consistent and repeatable.

It is important to recognize the flaws of this analysis. The measurement validity of women’s rights may be less strong, because translating rights into numbers is a little crude (idem:47). However, the

qualitative part of this study makes up for this.

I acknowledge the weaknesses of the regression analysis, but I would like to emphasize that this analysis was primarily meant to see whether oil has a significant effect on women’s rights in the Maghreb and if the effect of trade with the EU would hold. The ultimate goal of this thesis is to dig deeper into the causal mechanism behind this relationship.

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29 One should see the regression analysis as an illustration of the relevance of studying this specific region and as a means to select the most suitable countries for the qualitative part.

Since this thesis studies a specific region, which means that it is less externally valid (ibid).

Nonetheless, the existing literature has not yet looked into the influence of domestic factors in in mechanisms of policy diffusion. The findings on the exact influence of specific domestic factors might not be generalizable, but whether or not this influence exists can be generalized to other countries.

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6. Quantitative analysis

In this section, the results of the quantitative analysis will be set out and analysed. Regression analyses have been performed on the countries of the Maghreb as a whole to see if there have been significant effects of trade with the European Union (EU) on women’s rights. The goal of this part of the analysis is to relate this study to the existing literature and to test the null hypothesis derived from that literature. The null hypothesis that will be tested is ‘’ Trade liberalization has had a positive effect on women’s rights in the Maghreb because of spatial dependence on the European Union, working via trade’’. Hence, I will test whether increased trade with the EU increases the level of

women’s rights.

In the second part of this analysis, the countries of the Maghreb will be studied independently by looking at trends in the dependent variable and the independent variables throughout the years. These trends will be presented in a table, showing whether these trends show an increase or decrease between 1981 and 2011. The trends can be compared to each other to see if dependent and independent variables from the same country follow the same line, as well as comparing the countries to each other. Based on this analysis, two countries will be selected for the comparative case studies. Ideally, these countries are alike when it comes to trends in the dependent variable, but differ when it comes to the independent variables.

6.1 Regression analysis

As illustrated in Table 1 below, export to the EU has a significant effect on women’s rights in every model. The strength of this effect does differ, but in two out of four models the effect is significant at a level of at least 0.05. Female labour force participation is significant when added to the third model, but not at a very high level and the significant effect disappears when the oil variable is added. Adding this variable does not change the size and the significance of the effect of trade with the EU. So, contrary to theoretical expectations, the effect of trade with the EU on women’s rights is independent from female employment. The Polity2 variable that measures a country’s level of democracy is significant in every model. It’s beta coefficient is also higher in every model than the beta coefficient of trade with the EU. This indicates that, in accordance with the existing literature, democracy has a positive effect on women’s rights. Since the effect of exports to the EU remains significant as well, this does not take away the effect of trade. Also, democracy is supposed to increase women’s rights because the population has a voice in decision-making. The policy diffusion mechanism does not involve domestic decision-making, but diffusion of policies and norms from other countries.

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31 Hence, this finding does not interfere with the theoretical expectations based on the literature on policy diffusion.

Table 1. Regression of women’s political and economic rights (Maghreb region)

Maghreb region

Women’s political and economic rights

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

EU export (% of total export)

0.035 (0.000)***

0.021 (0.007)**

(0.090)*

0.021 (0.027)**

0.033 GDP per capita (currents US $)

-

2.286E-5

(0.382)

1.801E-5

(0.513)

9.518E-5

(0.089)*

Polity 2

-

0.102 (0.000)***

0.130 (0.000)***

(0.000)***

0.123 Female labor force participation

-

0.024 (0.085)*

(0.198)

0.018 Oil rents x EU export

-

0.000 (0.182)

Adjusted R²

0.111

0.195

0.149

0.196

*P<0.1 **P<0.05 ***P<0.01

In recognition of the literature on trade liberalization and its effect on female labour force

participation, a regression model has been composed to see whether exports to the EU have had an effect on female labour force participation (see Table 2). Trade with the EU has a significant effect in the first two models, but at a very low level and the effect disappears in the last model. The

democracy variable Polity2 has a significant effect in all models again. However, the significant effect is negative. This would mean that the more democratized a country is, less women would work. Although this sounds counterintuitive, this might have something to do with other factors that were in place at the same time countries became more democratized. Economic and oil crises for instance might have had a negative effect on female labour force participation, even if they occurred in periods of democratization. Also, in for instance Algeria, the influence of Islamic Fundamentalism became bigger when they were allowed as a political party and this affected family law (Lazreg, 1990:776). Similar events might have taken place in other countries in the region.

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Table 2. Regression of female labour force participation (Maghreb region)

Maghreb region

Female labour force participation

Model 5 Model 6

Model 7

EU export (% of total export)

0.192 (0.045)**

0.152 (0.080)*

0.141 (0.223)

GDP per capita (currents US $)

-

9.525E-5

(0.621)

0.000 (0.289)

Polity 2

-

-0.929

(0.000)***

-0.893

(0.000)***

Oil rents x EU export

-

-0.001

(0.560)

Adjusted R²

0.028

0.214

0.217

*P<0.1 **P<0.05 ***P<0.01

6.2 Trend analysis

In this paragraph, the countries will be analysed based on trends in the dependent variable as well as the independent variables. The countries’ individual trends will be compared to each other to find out if there is a possible relationship between women’s rights and the independent variables. Trends in the different variables will also be compared between the countries’ individually. Women’s rights have been split into economic and political rights again in this analysis. Combining the two was necessary for the regression analyses, but the trend analysis is more suitable to study less variance.

This way, it can give us more detailed information on differences in the period between 1981 and 2011.

Libya shows little possible correlation between any of the expected variables, which is not surprising since it is the country that suffered most from political unrest in the region, as well as the imposition of economic sanctions (Bell & Finaish, 1994:2). The possibility that this might influence all the studied variables is so probable, that it seems best not to draw any conclusions from these preliminary results. Although it is a very interesting case, making assumptions would not be right in this case. Libya will therefore not be selected for the comparative case studies.

Since Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco are quite similar in their trends, it seems best to pick one of them and compare this one to Tunisia (for a complete overview of the trends, see Appendix B). Tunisia does show quite some similarities to the aforementioned countries, but the increases in export to the EU, level of democracy and GDP are much more extreme.

The effects of trade with the European Union on women's rights : a mixed methods analysis of the development of women's rights in the Mahgreb