Sex scandals and abuse of office; the makings of the people’s leader?
An analysis of the two populists Silvio Berlusconi and Donald Trump’s crisis
management tactics used to keep the electorate favourable
Master Thesis
Written by: Áslaug Ellen Yngvadóttir Student Number: s2184869
Supervisor: Dr. G.M. van Buuren Word Count: 11.896
Date of Submission: 30.04.2020 Leiden University
Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs MSc Crisis and Security Management
TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ... 3 PREFACE... 4 INTRODUCTION ... 5 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ... 8 LITERATURE REVIEW ... 8 Populism ... 8 Populist Rhetoric ... 10
The Populism of Berlusconi & Trump... 13
THEORY ... 14
Blame avoidance ... 14
Situational Crisis Communication Theory ... 15
METHODOLOGY ... 17
RESEARCH DESIGN ... 18
CASE SELECTION ... 20
DATA COLLECTION ... 21
OPERATIONALIZATION ... 22
VALIDITY &LIMITATIONS ... 23
CASE DESCRIPTIONS ... 24
SEX SCANDALS ... 24
Berlusconi - “The Noemi Case” ... 24
Trump - “Stormy Daniels” ... 25
ABUSE OF POWER ... 28
Berlusconi – “Rubygate” ... 28
Trump – “Ukraine Case” ... 29
RESULTS ... 31
POLLING RESULTS... 31
Sex Scandals - Noemi Case ... 31
Sex Scandals - Stormy Case ... 33
Abuse of Power – “Rubygate” ... 33
Abuse of Power – “Ukraine case” ... 35
Overall polling results ... 36
THE POPULIST’S CRISIS COMMUNICATION ... 37
Unapologetic ... 37
Us vs. Them ... 38
Explanations ... 39
Being the victims ... 41
CONCLUSION ... 42
ANNEX ... 44
THE CODING OF THE CASES ... 44
SEX SCANDALS ... 44
Berlusconi – “The Noemi Case” ... 44
Trump - “Stormy Daniels” ... 48
ABUSE OF POWER ... 53
Berlusconi – “Rubygate” ... 53
Trump - Ukraine Case ... 60
Abstract
Populist leaders campaign by using a populist rhetoric which is based on being anti-elite and separate from the establishment. The original question is why and how populist leaders are able to retain popularity regardless of scandals and perceived misgivings. The research question of this thesis is thus: When populists in power face ethical or legal challenges, which tactics prove
successful in keeping their electorate supportive? The thesis delves into the crisis communication
tactics of two populist leaders, Silvio Berlusconi the former prime minister of Italy and the current president of the United States, Donald J. Trump with a case study. The cases have two themes, sex scandals and abuse of power, two for each leader, tallying up to four cases. The research provides popularity data to analyse if the scandals had an effect on their popularity. Then by coding their discourse in relation to each case, an analysis is made on what tactics were used in order to explore if they were in line with their populist stance that got them elected in the first place. The coding is based on the Situational Crisis Communication, a theoretical framework by Timothy Coombs with the following labels; denial, diminishment posture, rebuilding posture and bolstering posture.
The data exhibited that in all four cases, either minimal or no support was lost. A pattern was discerned between the two leaders in their crisis communication tactics and was found to be in line with the populist stance, which got them elected into office. The two leaders never apologised and thus denied and excused themselves. When the blame was placed on them, they answered by predominantly claiming it to be someone else’s fault, most usually the elites or the media. It is believed that by previously having created this persona that is ‘working for the people’ the populist has already convinced his people that he is working for them and that the ‘others’ are against him.
Preface
This 15 ECTS MSc thesis is my final project for my Crisis and Security Management Masters degree at the Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs at Leiden University. The topic came to be as I had persistently pondered why leaders today seemed to behave in a manner I believed to be inappropriate, even towards their own electorate. Yet they continued in office and continued to be elected. Further, my fascination with the concept of accountability for leaders led me on.
The thesis has been a long process. It comes to an end as the world is in the midst of the Corona Crisis with President Trump leading the United States through the hardship. Despite the seriousness of it all, his crisis communication is the same as described in this thesis. Not accepting responsibility and blaming others. I can only hope the world will see through the populists who bombard excuses and we instead become captivated with a different type of leadership featuring accountability and modesty. It is due to this hope that I believe this research to be important.
I want to sincerely thank my supervisor, Dr. G.M. van Buuren who kindly accepted to assist me on this project late in the process. His comments along the way have been invaluable in making this into something worth reading. I’d also like to thank my friends, Sunna for her pep and read-overs along the way. Sanne and Marissa for being my academic and non-academic friends on new grounds in the Netherlands. My mother Guðrún, for my-life-long patience in checking my grammar and language. Then I would like to take the opportunity to thank Halla, Atli, Jana, Dísa, Katrín and Sólveig just for existing. Lastly, my boyfriend, Ólafur, for giving me fresh air. Then of course, myself. Because I wrote it.
I hope you enjoy the reading and find it enlightening.
Áslaug Ellen Yngvadóttir Reykjavík, Iceland 30th of April 2020
Introduction
This introduction chapter provides an outline of this thesis with a justification as to why this topic is believed to be important and relevant. The research question is put forward and the research method briefly explained as well as the academic and societal relevance of this paper. The chapter ends with a reading guide to unravel the structure of this paper.
The question whether our democracy works in modernity has been salient in the past years.1 The question is urgent because democracy impacts our lives in a deep sense on all levels. Today’s world is complicated. It centres on fast change, economic growth and globalisation that favours only some of us. Arguably, this has led to people losing faith and interest in democracy. Alongside this dwindling faith in democracy, the use of populism in campaigning and political discourse, has become more frequent, and the presence of populism became ever more established with Donald Trump’s presidential win in 2016.2 The concept of populism is hard to define in the minds of most.3 Having said that, according to Cas Mudde, most definitions of populism share a minimum two points of reference: ‘the elite and the people’. His definition of populism is interpreted as an ideology that sets society apart and into two homogenous and antagonistic groups, ‘the pure people’ versus the ‘corrupt elite’. Populism argues that politics should be an expression of the volonté général (general will) of the people.4 Politicians, parties and movements are not only called
1 Roman Krznaric. “Why We Need to Reinvent Democracy for the Long-Term.” BBC Future. BBC, March 19,
2019. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190318-can-we-reinvent-democracy-for-the-long-term.
Isaac Chotiner. “Is Democracy Necessarily Good?” Slate Magazine. Slate, October 11, 2018. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/democracy-history-united-states.html.
2 Paul Waldman. "How on Earth Have We Let Trump Get Away With Hiding His Tax Returns?" The Washington
Post. August 09, 2018. Accessed March 02, 2019./,
"The Ultimate Trump Delusion." NewsComAu. November 04, 2018. Accessed March 02, 2019.
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/the-trump-delusion-all-the-times-people-thought-he-was-doomed/news-story/07b5277c2a8434527ec1c67195cd6ab5,
Matthew Walther. "Trump Will Get Away with Everything." The Week - All You Need to Know about Everything That Matters. August 22, 2018. Accessed March 02, 2019. https://theweek.com/articles/791668/trump-away-everything.
3 Claudia Alvares and Peter Dahlgren. “Populism, Extremism and Media: Mapping an Uncertain Terrain.” European
Journal of Communication 31, no. 1 (February 2016): 46–57. doi:10.1177/0267323115614485.
4 Cas Mudde. "The Populist Zeitgeist." Government and Opposition 39, no. 4 (2004):
“populist” due to a certain policy, position or ideological stance, but also because they utilise a rhetoric of being anti-elite and anti- establishment. 5
This thesis delves into the scandals of two populist politicians, Italy’s former Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi and the aforementioned president of the United States, Donald J. Trump. The politicians and their presidencies are similar and most relevantly, feature a populistic approach to their politics.6 What is intriguing about populist candidates is what they say and do often spark controversy, yet seemingly it appears that they manage to maintain popularity. Exemplified with the controversy during Trump’s campaign when he claimed he can do anything with women, and even “grab them by the pussy”. He was elected into office in spite of those controversial comments.7 In addition to that, questions have been raised of his unlawfulness, of racism towards immigrants and of his overall competency to serve as the world’s most powerful man.8 His now three years in office have not been without scandals, both political and personal. There have been periodic pleas to impeach him, to the point of him being impeached by the House of Representatives of which he has been acquitted by the senate. Despite being the third ever president to be democratically impeached by the House it remains likely that he will become re-elected in 2020.9 Similarly, Berlusconi before running in 1994 had extensive records of indictments and trials but nevertheless was elected in only 60 days, to later become Italy’s longest running Prime Minister since the Second World War.10 His time as prime minister was permeated with scandal, of ‘bunga bunga’ orgies, alleged sex with underage prostitutes and misuse of power.
Donald Trump and Silvio Berlusconi are not the only populists in office who have exhibited behaviour that is illegal or unethical by a democratic standard.11 It begs the question as
5 Ethan C Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, and Kirk A. Hawkins. "Framing and Blame Attribution in Populist
Rhetoric." The Journal of Politics, 2019, 000. doi:10.1086/701832.
6 Enzo Traverzo, Régis Meyran, and David Broder. The New Faces of Fascism: Populism and the Far Right.
London: Verso, 2019. 20.
7 "Transcript: Donald Trump's Taped Comments About Women." The New York Times. December 21, 2017.
Accessed March 02, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html.
8 Matt Flegenheimer, and Michael Barbaro. “Donald Trump Is Elected President in Stunning Repudiation of the
Establishment.” The New York Times. The New York Times, November 9, 2016.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-president.html.
9 Jeff Cox. “Trump Is on His Way to an Easy Win in 2020, According to Moody's Accurate Election Model.”
CNBC. CNBC, October 15, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/moodys-trump-on-his-way-to-an-easy-2020-win-if-economy-holds-up.html.
10Andrew Alexander Monti. "Comparative Electoral Hortatory Language 1993-1994: Jean Chretien and Silvo
Berlusconi." Order No. MS00031, York University (Canada), 2013. https://search.proquest.com/docview/1510294919?accountid=12045. 75.
11 David Held and Gareth Schott. Models of Democracy. Oxford: Polity Press, 2016. Accessed February 21, 2019.
to why the scandals do not appear to have an electoral effect on populist leaders? The hypothesis is that the candidate’s populist rhetoric is important to their ability to maintain their popularity in office and continued electoral success midst frequent scandals.12 Therefore, the question that this thesis seeks to answer is the following: When populists in power face ethical or legal challenges,
which tactics prove successful in keeping their electorate supportive? The objective of this thesis
is to test that assumption. To analyse what tactics are effective and if they are related to their populist stance, two different themes of cases will be analysed; Sex Scandals and Abuse of Office, meaning a total of four cases, two for each president/prime minister. Secondly, data related to their popularity during a scandal will be researched to examine if the scandals influenced on their popularity. Thirdly, an analysis will be made to discover what tactics the leaders used during each crisis, and if those strategies are considered a populist rhetoric. This is to analyse if a populist rhetoric plays a role in their capability to remain popular while in office. To do this, The Situational Crisis Communication Theory by Timothy Coombs will be used to code their discourse throughout each crisis.
This subject is important as the actions of populists can threaten the fundamental rights of democracy. Populist leaders often appear to undermine the institutions of democracy as many of the actions of Berlusconi and Trump have neither been ethical nor legal. The evidence is found in the cases this thesis examines: Berlusconi at 72-years old attending a birthday party of a 17-year old girl, the other case is him asking the police to release a female escortout of jail who had attended his ‘sex’ parties before she was 18-years old. Trump covering up infidelities by paying an adult film star to keep silent, most likely to increase the chances of him winning the 2016 election and the case of him coercing the leader of Ukraine to research his political opponent. There is much research available on how populists are elected into office, but less on how they manage to remain in office. With this questionable behaviour exhibited by leaders who have power over our lives, it is advantageous to know how populist politicians use their rhetoric to avoid losing electoral support when scandals strike.
The structure of the thesis is as follows: the next chapter encompasses the theoretical framework with a literature review of main concepts of populism and its rhetoric as well as a brief description of the populism used by the two leaders. The latter of the theoretical framework are the theories used in the thesis; Blame Avoidance and the Situational Crisis Communications
Theory by Coombs. The third chapter is a methodological section describing the research design as well as presenting the cases. The fourth chapter is the Results chapter, which features the data from polls followed by an analysis of their crisis communication. Lastly, the conclusion of the thesis. Importantly, in the annex the coding of the populists’ discourse in crisis is found as well as the popularity/approval data during the scandals.
Theoretical Framework
This chapter encompasses the theoretical framework that the research is built upon. Within the framework, the key concept of populism is introduced and later the rhetoric of populism explained. Then the populism of Donald Trump and Silvio Berlusconi is described. Then Blame Avoidance will be briefly explained followed by Timothy Coombs’ theory, the Situational Crisis Communications Theory where the definitions of predefined crisis communication tactics will be explained. This frame will be used to code the discourse of the leaders.
Literature Review
Populism
Democracy is a contested term, and since its birth there has been plenty of room for disagreement.13 Between democracy and populism a powerful connection is present, as they both place the people to be of utmost importance.14 By its very nature democracy is open to debate, it is a competitive political activity that wrestles over resources and power. Citizens view these freedoms as the moral foundation for the legitimacy of the system, whereas few others take advantage of these freedoms to provoke current political arrangements, and undermine liberty, equality and civil rights.15
Today populism is frequently the topic of discussion and has been widely researched. Gianfranco Pasquino notes that populist leaders do not represent the people but instead think of
13 David Held and Gareth Schott. Models of Democracy. Oxford: Polity Press, 2016. Accessed February 21, 2019.
ProQuest Ebook Central. 14.
14 Gianfranco Pasquino. “Populism and Democracy” in Twenty-First Century Populism: the Spectre of Western
European Democracy. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. 15.
themselves an integral part of the people.16 The populist’s point of view is that the elites are spoiled, exemplified by Donald Trump’s slogan during his electoral campaign “drain the swamp”. Albertazzi and Duncan McDonnel add to the definition that according to populists, these ‘others’ or the ‘elite’ are acting together to strip the sovereign people of their rights, values, prosperity, identity and of their right to expression. The others are to blame for their unpleasant situation in which people encounter themselves, and that they must by all means be given back their voice through the actions of a populist leader.17
Since the early 1990s populism has inserted itself as one of the basic characteristics of Western democracy. In the early days, populism was mostly employed by outsiders, whereas today we have an increasing amount of world leaders that behave in a manner that exemplifies many of the traditional examples of pure populism.18 Mudde argues that populism is a ‘thin-centred ideology’ which can easily be combined with other more refined ideologies, such as communism, nationalism and socialism.19 He furthermore writes that while charismatic leadership, such as Berlusconi and Trump have possessed are common among populists, they facilitate rather than define populism. That being said, the success of populist actors is intertwined with strong party leaders and is defined by more direct communication between party leadership and party supporters.20
There are several explanations for this rise of populism. Much of the literature on populism debates that it is a phenomenon of social crises.21 The argument is that the rise of populism is the result of the transformation to a post-industrial society, and of the deficient way social democracy has dealt with it. According to research by Norris and Inglehart, populist support is strengthened by anti-immigrant attitudes, mistrust of national governance, support for authoritarian values, and
16 Daniele Albertazzi, and Duncan McDonnell. “Introduction: The Sceptre and the Spectre” in Twenty-First
Century Populism: the Spectre of Western European Democracy. 7. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008
17 Daniele Albertazzi, and Duncan McDonnell. “Introduction: The Sceptre and the Spectre” in Twenty-First
Century Populism: the Spectre of Western European Democracy. 3-5
18 Cas Mudde. "The Populist Zeitgeist." Government and Opposition 39, no. 4 (2004).
doi:10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135. 552.
19 Cas Mudde. "The Populist Zeitgeist." 544. 20 Cas Mudde. "The Populist Zeitgeist." 544.
21 Gianfranco Pasquino, Daniele Albertazzi, and Duncan McDonnell. Twenty-First Century Populism: the Spectre of
Western European Democracy. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. 1.
Enzo Traverso, Régis Meyran, and David Broder. The New Faces of Fascism: Populism and the Far Right. London: Verso, 2019. 27-28
René Cuperus. “The Populist Deficiency of European Social Democracy: the Dutch Experience.” Internationale
left-right ideological self-placement.22 Populism is frequently viewed as the embodiment of ‘anti-politics’. Anti-politics can be defined as a reaction against contemporary politics that appear to have ceased to embody values and has instead become exclusively about ‘governance’. Politics, according to many, now subsist on empty institutions and are reduced to a mixture of economic powers, bureaucratic machines and an army of political professionals that no longer fight for ideas, but instead build careers. The emergence of anti-politics is the result of this hollowing out of politics, where policy changes are rare.23
This note brings us to the next point of the faults of democracy: politics fatigue or apathy. It argues that one of the causes for the predominance of populist techniques is the phenomenon of politics fatigue exemplified in difficulty of receiving popular support. This is a serious problem both for politicians as well as for journalists. Since there has been a balance of power, or at least a strong opposition within democracies, radical or programmatic legislation has become arduous and resistance from the population is always feared. Therefore, to keep apathy at bay, politicians and journalists have begun to value a crisis. 24
Populist Rhetoric
Surprisingly, little is known about how populist rhetoric works as most populism research has rather focused on the profile of populist politicians and parties as opposed to their discourse.25 As mentioned, the definition of populism has been disputed, but a number of scholars have chosen a definition that is ideational, categorising it as a dualistic (good vs. evil) view of politics that sees the side of good as the will of the common people, and the opposite as the conspiring elite. This rhetoric is reflected in the distinct discourse that Trump frequently employs. An example is contrasting ordinary citizens e.g. “the American people” with the elite “Washington” that has
22 Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart. 2016. ‘Trump, Brexit and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-nots and
Cultural Backlash’. Harvard JFK School of Government Faculty Working Papers Series, August, 3-5.
23 Enzo Traverso, Régis Meyran, and David Broder. The New Faces of Fascism: Populism and the Far Right.
London: Verso, 2019. 27-28.
24 Heinz Steinert. "The Indispensable Metaphor of War:." Theoretical Criminology 7, no. 3 (2003).
doi:10.1177/13624806030073002. 281-282
25 Ethan C. Busby Joshua R. Gubler, and Kirk A. Hawkins. "Framing and Blame Attribution in Populist Rhetoric."
Inglehart, Ronald, and Pippa Norris. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash." SSRN Electronic Journal, 2016, 1-52. Accessed February 28, 2019. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2818659.
corrupted the political system and needs to be removed: “drain the swamp”, “transform our country”.26
First, a populist rhetoric refers to the failures of governance that afflict society. Second, it identifies its audience as a virtuous public that is comprised of the common people, framing the people as good democratic subjects agonised by policy failure. Third, it blames policy failure on the calculated, knowing behaviour of powerful elites within the society. Politicians can make choices about the rhetoric they apply to avoid populist elite blaming, as this pattern of dispositional blaming is a key rhetoric that separates populism from alternative political discourses. Populists’ discourse result in the demonization of elites twinned with the glorification of the “people”. 27 Various studies have analysed the rhetoric of well-known politicians, finding shared characteristics across many of the leaders that we conventionally consider to be populists.28 Analysis of texts from the 2016 US presidential campaign show that Trump had a moderately populist discourse, whereas Clinton and some Republican candidates did not.29 Furthermore, current research has commenced in support of the idea that populist rhetoric at the elite level can affect populist attitudes and behaviour at the mass level. Two experiments done in the Netherlands exhibit that pieces of populist sounding language increases support for populist parties and facilitates political resentment when the language is used to frame salient political issues.30 According to a study conducted by Busby, Ethan, Gubler and Hawkins, found that non populist politicians can use alternative rhetoric to engage voters substantively such as by framing problems in terms of situational factors, which blame the neutral forces that are not in control by the individual as they can have the same effect on prompting populist responses.31
Populist leaders share a ‘populist’ communication style where their appearance and clothing portrays a part. 32 According to Stewart, Mazzoleni and Horsefield the communication strategies of populist leaders involve:
26 Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, and Kirk A. Hawkins. "Framing and Blame Attribution in Populist Rhetoric." 27 Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, and Kirk A. Hawkins. "Framing and Blame Attribution in Populist Rhetoric." 28 Bonikowski, Bart, and Noam Gidron. "The Populist Style in American Politics: Presidential Campaign Discourse,
1952-1996." Social Forces 94, no. 4 (2016): 1593-621.
Rooduijn, Matthijs, and Teun Pauwels. "Measuring Populism: Comparing Two Methods of Content Analysis." West
European Politics 34, no. 6 (2011): 1272-283.
29 Kirk A Hawkins. 2016. “Populism and the 2016 US Presidential Election in Comparative Perspective.”
Comparative Politics Newsletter 26 (2): 91–97
30 Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, and Kirk A. Hawkins. "Framing and Blame Attribution in Populist Rhetoric." 31 Ethan C Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, and Kirk A. Hawkins. "Framing and Blame Attribution in Populist Rhetoric." 32 Cas Mudde. "The Populist Zeitgeist. 554.
1. Playing the role of the underdog; 2. Use of professional experience; 3. Rallies;
4. Free media publicity; 5. Staging events; and
6. Tactical attacks on the media.33
Populist leaders are often news makers. Mazzoleni writes that the European media has given substantial legitimacy to the populist agenda as ‘underdog’ leaders have often been able to take advantage of the media. This is because the media tends to publish stories that do not follow a pattern of typical political coverage. The relationship between media and populists means a chain of supply and demand that leads to added visibility and an echo effect of the populist message that reaches a wide audience. Thus, the media plays a pivotal role in mobilizing populist causes, although it is by no means the only factor that add to the degree of support for populist causes.34 At present, political language has become a spectacle. Political leaders must be good actors and be able to master the tools of drama to grasp the attention of the audience as it becomes ever more distanced from politics. 35
Politics are a breeding ground for crisis. Whether the crisis is regarding a sex scandal, untruthfulness or people being involved in conflicts of interests or government officials engaging in acts based on their own selfish interests. Since politicians are public officials, they are sometimes above the law or permitted to play by different standards than others. The disregard for such standards, which would most likely harm the reputation of the normal citizen, can indeed have a market value for public officials, especially populists. However, politicians that become intertwined with scandals harms their brand and can even terminate their careers.36
Populist leaders present themselves as part of the pure people who act against the corrupt elite. Despite claiming to be pure, populist leaders are often surrounded by scandals and corruption
33 J. Stewart, G. Mazzoleni and B. Horsefield. Conclusion: Power to the Media Managers, in The Media and Neo
Populism: A Contemporary Comparative Analysis. Westport, CT: Praeger.
34 Gianpiedro Mazzoleni. “Populism and Media” in Twenty-First Century Populism: the Spectre of Western
European Democracy. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008
35 Gianpiedro Mazzoleni. “Populism and Media” in Twenty-First Century Populism: the Spectre of Western
European Democracy.
36 Robert L. Heath. 2010. „ Introduction Crisis Communication: Defining the Beast and De-marginalizing Key Publics“ In The Handbook of Crisis Communication.. Editors: Timothy Coombs and Sherry J. Holladay, 2-3. West Sussex: Blackwell Publishing.
allegations. The topic of the thesis are the two leaders who are both billionaires that have led tumultuous lives. They hardly represent the lives of a normal citizen. Most research on populist leaders is about how they have been able to achieve popularity and power, but not on how they handle being in power with their irregular backgrounds and controversial manner of doing things. How do they act and speak when crises strike, when they have become embedded in the system and should thus be required to adhere to certain rules and etiquettes? Thus, the gap that this research aims to answer is how and if populists who face personal crises continue in office despite that their actions seem to reveal that they are also corrupt just like the elites they presumably despise.
The Populism of Berlusconi & Trump
In this brief chapter, how characteristics of the two leaders as populists are described. Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential election campaign reflected the concept of populism: a rhetoric that advocated a mixture of xenophobic fear tactics (against Mexicans and Muslims), conspiracy theories on those who rival him , and isolationists “America First” policies.37 Trump’s political style indeed bears most of the aforementioned communication strategies of populists. Trump claims to be an underdog to D.C. politics and a professional, self-made billionaire who is leading an insurgency movement for the benefit of the ordinary American who have become tired of the corrupt establishment, incompetent politicians, dishonest Wall Street speculators, conceited intellectuals and politically correct liberals.38 He often blames the media of being unjust towards him39 and criticises the media, an example of this is his statement in August 2018: “Whatever happened to the free press? Whatever happened to honest reporting? They don’t report it. They only make up stories”.40
37 Waddick Doyle. Translating Genres: Translating Leaders: Trump and Berlusconi, 2017. Contemporary French
and Francophone Studies, 21:5, 488-497, DOI: 10.1080/17409292.2017.1436198
38 Waddick Doyle. Translating Genres: Translating Leaders: Trump and Berlusconi.
39 Montanaro, Domenico. “For President Trump, Life Is Just Not Fair - And What That Means For The Rest Of Us.”
NPR. NPR, August 4, 2018. https://www.npr.org/2018/08/04/635294139/for-president-trump-life-is-just-not-fair-and-what-that-means-for-the-rest-of-us?t=1569493557526.
40 The Associated Press. “Trump Renews Attacks on 'Fake, Fake Disgusting News'.” KATV. KATV, August 3,
2018. https://katv.com/news/nation-world/trump-renews-attacks-on-fake-fake-disgusting-news?fbclid=IwAR3uO-DnAQUPJuwFFOYI1M5RsBPF0lQnPZUtTMPaveLgmAYe0Uju3DKY-uA.
Similarily, Berlusconi’s populism is centred on the hard-working, slightly conservative, law-abiding citizen, who sees his world being corrupted by progressives, criminals and aliens.41 Berlusconi’s swift sixty day electoral campaign was according to him the first time in Western history that a national political party had been launched from inside a major corporation.42 The content and campaign was feel-good, while simultaneously blaming the Communists for Italy’s poor standing.43 He claims to represent the Western consumer who despises politics and politicians 44
To summarise, both leaders use a dualistic rhetoric while campaigning as well as stating that they represent the people who are tired of the politicians and the elites.
Theory
Blame avoidance
The understanding of who did wrong and who did right in a crisis is not always rational. In the game of politics, accountability ‘narratives’ are often challenged. Promoters and defenders weigh in on debates to get their version accepted as the truth. Often with the aim of being perceived as the hero of the crisis. Some leaders appear to thrive under crisis induced pressure. An example of this is when President Bill Clinton was subject to impeachment in the aftermath of the Lewinsky affair, despite being troubled by the event for a long time, his rating polls remained at an all-time high.45
Once a general agreement has been reached on how to define a certain situation, the degree of blame is determined by perceptions or (1) the level of responsibility the actors have for causing or contributing to the crisis; (2) the history of the crisis – if there have been similar occurrences in the past there will be more blame; (3) one’s reputation before the crisis – if there is a damaged reputation then it will result in more blame; (4) and how much avoidable harm was caused by this
41 Cas Mudde. "The Populist Zeitgeist." 578.
42 Alan Friedman. Berlusconi: the Epic Story of the Billionaire Who Took over Italy. New York: Hachette, 2015. 43 Eli Rosenberg. “The Communists Are Out to Get Berlusconi.” The Atlantic. Atlantic Media Company, October
31, 2013. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/communists-are-out-get-berlusconi/349136/.
44 Carlo Ruzza & Laura Balbo. (2013). Italian Populism and the trajectory of two leaders: Silvio Berlusconi and
Umberto Bossi.167.
45 Annika Brändström. Crisis, Accountability and Blame Management: Strategies and Survival of Political
crisis.46 The degree of blame an actor faces is not stable but fluctuates depending on how the actor responds to the blame and if new incriminating information is introduced.47
This struggle is the ‘blame game’ where both factions use tactics, rhetoric and symbolic actions to frame and explain how they think the responsibility landscape should be like.48 The odds of success are dependent on the choice of strategy as well as on the individual, temporal and institutional factors.49 Top political leaders are enabled and constrained by structural boundaries as well as individual skills in positioning themselves in the right place during the crisis.50 Scholars usually concur that most resignations correspond with intense scrutiny and negative media reporting.51
The Media, Parliament and public venues are excellent arenas for blaming activities. Beyond them in framing and blaming contests, it is necessary to look at personal and professional backgrounds of actors, age, prior experiences, political capital as well as personalities and skills.52 Studies in the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany indicate that political experience seems to be a factor that protects ministers from leaving office, so experience in understanding formal and informal rules help leaders exploit them. 53 By using the theoretical framework of Coombs, the tactics employed by the two politicians will be analysed.
Situational Crisis Communication Theory
There are many definitions of crises. The one that will be used in this thesis is “an event that is an unpredictable (but not unexpected) major threat that can have a negative effect on an organisation,
46 Timothy W. Coombs. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. SAGE
Publications, Incorporated, 2015.
47 Sandra L. Resodihardjo, Brendan J. Carroll, Carola J.a. Van Eijk, and Sanne Maris. "Why Traditional Responses
To Blame Games Fail: The Importance Of Context, Rituals, And Sub-Blame Games In The Face Of Raves Gone Wrong." Public Administration 94, no. 2 (2015). doi:10.1111/padm.12202. 352
48 A Boin,, ‘t Hart, P., Stern, E., and Sundelius, B. (2005) The Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leadership
under Pressure. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 103.
49 A Boin, ‘t Hart, P., Stern, E., and B. Sundelius. (2005) The Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leadership
under Pressure. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
50 Annika Brändström. Crisis, Accountability and Blame Management: Strategies and Survival of Political
Office-holders. Stockholm: CRISMART, Swedish Defence University, 2016. 19.
51Annika Brändström. Crisis, Accountability and Blame Management: Strategies and Survival of Political
Office-holders. 19.
52 A Boin, ‘t Hart, P., Stern, E., and Sundelius, B. (2005) The Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leadership
under Pressure.
53 Annika Brändström. Crisis, Accountability and Blame Management: Strategies and Survival of Political
industry, or stakeholders if handled improperly”.54 Timothy Coombs writes that crisis communication should be strategic and should intend to improve the situation for stakeholders and the organisation in crisis. As populists know, each crisis comes with the potential of creating unique communication demands.55 Coombs identifies the lessons from strategic communication analysis of crises that create consistent results to provide a guidance on what is successful and unsuccessful in crises. He discerns two strategies for crisis communication, 1) managing information and 2) managing meaning. Managing information refers to the collection and dissemination of crisis-related details. Managing meaning pertains to influencing how people perceive a crisis or the organisation in question. In turn, crisis response strategies are mainly about meaning making.
The Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) is research that applies attribution theory to crisis management. Attribution theory is built on the belief that people allocate responsibility for negative and unexpended events. The strategies involved in that process are four: 1) denial, 2) diminishment posture, 3) rebuilding and 4) bolstering posture. 56
The strategy of denial seeks to sever all ties between the organisation and a crisis, with the objective of establishing that there was no responsibility held for said crisis and that only misperception connects the two together, and perhaps that there is suffering involved for the unjust victim. Within denial, a scapegoat strategy can be applied, meaning, attempting to transfer the blame on to another actor. Here it is important to note that if the organisation attempts denial and is then found to bear some responsibility, the damage is intensified. Furthermore, stakeholders, or in this case the electorate are inclined to have a negative view of the scapegoating strategy, as they want organisations to assume responsibility. Another strategy within denial is attacking the
accuser where the crisis manager confronts the person or group that says the crisis exists. This
may include threatening a lawsuit. 57
54 Timothy Coombs. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. SAGE Publications,
Incorporated. 2015. 19.
55 Timothy W. Coombs. "The Value of Communication during a Crisis: Insights from Strategic Communication
Research." Business Horizons 58, no. 2 (2015): 141-48. Accessed December 10, 2018. doi:10.1016/j.bushor.2014.10.003. 598
56 Timothy Coombs. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. 173-175 57 Timothy Coombs. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. 175
Diminishing posture attempts to minimise the responsibility for the crisis. This can be done
by excusing, by claiming a lack of control over a situation or denying bad intention or by justifying by minimising the crisis by saying it is not as bad as people think. 58
Rebuilding posture can be done by compensation or by apology.59 This is where actors assume responsibility and asks victims for their forgiveness. There, the general idea is to participate in positive actions towards victims in order to counteract negative impact from the crises.60
Bolstering can be achieved by reminding. Managers will then remind stakeholders of their previous good work. Another option is ingratiation where actors praise stakeholders. Lastly by claiming victimage by explaining that they are also a victim of perceived crisis.61
Coombs furthermore provides an overview of crisis communication strategy as a recommendation for action. He identifies seven crisis situations including suggested responses and likely outcomes. They are: No Crisis Responsibility, Minimal Crisis Responsibility, Strong Crisis Responsibility, Integrity-based Crisis, Competence-based Crisis, Long-term Threat and Timing. 62 In this thesis the scandals or crisis select have a strong crisis responsibility to the actor, as these scandals would have been preventable as they are human made errors involving misdeeds. 63
Methodology
This chapter centres on the research design that was implemented in this study. The case selection and requirements of the four different cases is described as well and the index for the coding of the discourse for the cases. The specific research methodology of discourse analysis that is used to analyse the cases will also be explained. This if followed by a description of the operationalization of this research. Next, an account of where the data for the popularity polls
58 Timothy Coombs. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. 175 59 Timothy Coombs. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. 175
60 Timothy W. Coombs. "The Value of Communication during a Crisis: Insights from Strategic Communication
Research." 141-48.
61 Timothy Coombs. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. 175
62 Timothy W. Coombs. "The Value of Communication during a Crisis: Insights from Strategic Communication
Research." 141-48.
63 Gabriel L. Adkins. 2010. „Organizational Networks in Crisis Response“ in The Handbook of Crisis
was obtained. Subsequently, the reliability and validity of this study will be touched upon. Lastly a description of the cases in detail.
Research design
The objective of this thesis is to see if and how populist leaders utilise a populist rhetoric or tactics to avoid losing electoral support for their scandals. The research question; When populists in power
face ethical or legal challenges, which tactics prove successful in keeping their electorate supportive?, is answered with a qualitative multiple case study, as it analyses four different cases,
with the aim of achieving a detailed insight into the rhetoric and crisis communication of two populist leaders during personal crises. Therefore, it presents a case by case study, with two different themes, sex scandals and abuse of office, analysing the discourse in the aftermath of a serious scandal that the populist politicians encountered. The research goal is twofold, firstly to provide data to analyse the effect that the scandals had on the leaders and secondly to see what tactics were used and if they were in line with their populist stance. Their rhetoric and tactics will be analysed by using the Situational Crisis Communication Theory, therefore the method is deductive.
The thesis explores tactics from a crisis communication framework because the populists enter crisis mode in order to lessen the damages suffered due to their misdeeds, the damages being negative electoral effects, worsened reputation and career.64 The events presented in this thesis are self-made misdeeds that lead to a crisis for the politician in question. Populists now hold power in many governments of the world. This research is important because it analyses how populist leaders respond when they face crisis and scandals. Furthermore, it can be argued that the scandals that saw the light of day during their electoral term(s) epitomise that they are not a part of the ‘pure people’ but rather of the ‘corrupt elite’. With their populist rhetoric and tactics, they continuously aim to control the discourse to be viewed as a part of the pure people. It appears that with this they maintain popularity with their electorate. As written, most resignations correlate with intense scrutiny and negative media reporting. Therefore, the research aims to explain the puzzle on how populists are able maintain popularity and power when they exhibit behaviour that should be punishable by a democratic standard or behaviour that you would think people would not support.
64 Coombs, Timothy. Ongoing Crisis Communication: Planning, Managing, and Responding. SAGE Publications,
The justification for researching these populist leaders is that they are populists who are similar and used a compatible populist rhetoric while campaigning. By comparing the two, it is possible to analyse and see if a similar pattern of their tactics emerges. Both leaders have styled themselves as the ultimate anti-politicians; presenting themselves as exceedingly successful entrepreneurs running against the establishment of the professional politicians. They were businessmen before entering into politics, possessed unclean slates, have had frequent run-ins with the law as well as being notorious ladies’ men. There are however differences between the two. Firstly, they are not from the same continent. Secondly, the political systems are different. In Italy, you vote for a coalition that seeks to form a government, whereas in the United States you vote in a de facto dual-party system, for either The Republican Party or The Democratic Party. Thirdly, Berlusconi belongs to the era of television, where he used his ownership of the majority of channels in Italy to boast his political campaign as well as his action when in government whereas Trump is in the modern age with the benefits of social media and his previous reality TV star career on the Apprentice.
For Trump, social media provides a platform that acts as a direct source of news, thus bypassing mass media. It is unlikely that Trump, a man without political experience would have been able to win the 2016 election without such a powerful representation tool as social media.65 However, the same argument can be applied to Berlusconi, as it is unlikely that he would have been able to win his first election had he not owned the majority of newspapers and television channels in Italy, which was the main medium for political communication at the time.66 In the same way as Trump uses Twitter, the people of Italy could listen to daily updates from a personal friend of Berlusconi, Emilio Fede on the channel Rede 4 where he frequently used the time there to denounce magistrates and appraise the achievements of Berlusconi.67
The argument here is since Berlusconi himself owned majority of the TV channels as well as newspaper in Italy he also possessed the same power over the media as Trump does today with his millions of followers on Twitter. The assumption of this thesis is that the different platforms
65 Gunn Enli."Twitter as Arena for the Authentic Outsider: Exploring the Social Media Campaigns of Trump and
Clinton in the 2016 US Presidential Election." European Journal of Communication 32, no. 1 (2017). 53-60
66 Umberto Eco. Turning Back the Clock: Hot Wars and Media Populism. Translated by Alastair McEwen,
Harcourt, 2007. 142.
of communication do not matter as the important thing is that the message is controlled by the populist and that it is delivered to the people.
Case Selection
The cases analysed are four in total, two cases from Silvio Berlusconi and two from Donald J. Trump. They are split into two themes, sex scandals and abuse of power. The cases were selected because when the political careers of the leaders were researched, they appeared to be the most high-profile cases in terms of media coverage. Therefore, they were believed to bear the most potential harm for their electoral support and popularity. Furthermore, the cases selected needed to represent some of the most difficult challenges each candidate faced while in office and were required to be a clear and obvious case of misconduct as well as an ethical breech on behalf of each candidate. The analysis will be made with the election outcome for each of their wins and polls as a reference point before the scandal. After each crisis the polls in the aftermath will demonstrate if the crises had an effect on their popularity.
The case selected within the theme sex scandals for Berlusconi is the “Noemi Case”. On the 29th of April 2009, the major newspaper La Repubblica reported that Berlusconi, then Prime Minister, had attended the 18th birthday party of Noemi Letizia. The following day, Mr. Berlusconi’s wife, Veronica Lazio wrote an article in that same newspaper criticising her husband for consorting with underage girls, referring to it as ‘malaise’.68 The case was high profile, and made people wonder if their Prime Minister had broken the ethical breach of having had a sexual encounter with a minor. As for Trump, the scandal surrounding his highly prolific alleged sexual relations with the adult film star Stormy Daniels. She claims that she received a bribe to keep her from speaking up, after she and Trump had sex in 2006. At the time Trump was married to Melania.69 The occurrence made international headlines and there were questions of the legality of the bribe.
Within the theme abuse of power, the case selected is Berlusconi’s action of requesting the release a minor from prison by claiming she was a niece of then Egyptian president Hosni
68 Alessandro Chiaramonte and Roberto Dalimonte. “The Twilight of the Berlusconi Era: Local Elections and
National Referendums in Italy, May and June 2011.” South European Society and Politics 17, no. 2 (2012): 261–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2012.701793.
69 To Luckhurt. "Why the Stormy Daniels-Donald Trump Story Matters." BBC News. May 03, 2018. Accessed
Mubarak. The girl in question, Karima El-Mahroug is Moroccan, and was known to him, as she had previously attended one of his infamous parties when she was underage. The case of Trump is his impeachment by the House of Representatives on the 18th of December 2019 on the accusations of him seeking out help from the government of Ukraine to gain advantage in the 2020 elections. In that endeavour he is supposed to have retained millions of dollars of senate approved military aid from Ukraine.70
The texts selected for analysis are the words of the heads of state themselves in relation to each crisis. They were collected from either in newspaper interviews, television interviews, press statements, or in Trump’s case, Twitter. They were selected by carefully combing through every statement found regarding each case with the aim of exhibiting every single rhetoric and argument used by the two leaders. The author of this thesis is an Italian speaker and therefore the Italian has been translated to English. For reference, the original language version can be found in footnotes.
Being populists, the assumption is they will not apologise and deny allegations using the populist rhetoric ‘us vs. them’. Therefore, they will present themselves as the ‘good people’ sacrificing themselves for the nation and that they are being attacked by their enemies. In sum, the theory is that to avoid losing support they will blame the political opposition, the elites or the media by using either a scapegoat method or attacking the accuser.
Data collection
The data from polls was found in several places online. They are presented with graphs and analysed in the Result section of this thesis and found in the annex. For Berlusconi they were encountered online at Sondaggi Politico Elettorale (http://archivio.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/) a site that the Italian government keeps to collect polls done by various parties. The ones used were the polls that were before, during and after the scandal inquiring on the trust Berlusconi inspired, as well as the hypothetical question if there were elections today for whom would people vote. In addition, other relevant polls on the scandals were used. For Trump data was gathered mostly from the website FiveThirtyEight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/) a respected site for opinion poll analysis in the United States. Furthermore, other polls in relation to the cases were used.
70 “Trump Impeachment: What You Need to Know about the Senate Trial.” BBC News, BBC, 1 Feb. 2020,
Operationalization
The tactics of the two populists in each case will be coded with the following labels; denial through
scapegoating, i.e. blaming immigrants or the other dominant party, by attacking their accusers by
vilifying their enemies such as the media or the elites; diminishing postures either by excusing or
justifying or by stating that they are the victims; rebuilding postures where they can bolster by
praising themselves or stakeholders. After the cases have been coded, electoral data will be provided to show that the crisis had little effect on their popularity. The coding scheme is to analyse the speeches and words and relate to the different communication strategies or repertoires based on the SCC theory of Coombs. Here below is an index with the colour coordination that is used in the Annex to code the cases:
Index:
Denial: red tones
Diminishing posture: gray tones
Bolstering: green tones
Rebuilding posture: blue tones
Simple denial Excusing Reminding Compensation Populist
rhetoric
Scapegoat Justifying Ingratiation Apology
Attacking accuser
Victimage
In order to code their rhetoric, discourse analysis will be used. To elaborate, according to Jørgensen and Philips, one definition of discourse is “a particular way of talking about and understanding
the world (or an aspect of the world)”.71 The starting point of analysing discourse is that reality cannot be reached outside discourses. Thus, the discourse is the object of the analysis. The analyst therefore needs to work with what has been said or written, to identify patterns and to recognise the social consequences of varied discursive representations of reality.72 Discourses are unfinished structures in an undecidable terrain that never becomes fully structured. Therefore there is space for struggle over what the structure should consist of and which discourse should have the upper
71 Marianne Jørgensen and Louise Phillips. Discourse Analysis as Theory and Method. Los Angeles, CA: Sage,
2011. 1.
hand, and how meaning should be regarded with the individual signs. 73 Populists can take advantage of this wiggle room within the language, since it is not set in stone, so they can use the language to gain control over the structure and of the discussion on a certain topic.74 Thus, discourse analysis can cast a light on the texts lead to, surface during, and become clarified after a crisis.75 Therefore this thesis is looking for the meaning of the words that the two populist politicians use as they navigate their way to crisis and attempt to take control the discussion of the crisis.
Validity & Limitations
The internal validity of this study is to establish if a populist rhetoric is essential to these populist leader’s success or popularity with the electorate when facing a crisis. Therefore, an intelligible coding scheme was created to measure the patterns of a populist rhetoric. The objective is to see if they use populist discourse precisely at a time when they are trying to protect themselves from harm, at a time when their people are waiting for a response, and then see if it has an effect on their popularity. Therefore, other factors matter less as the research is done in a specific crisis timeframe. However, as to any study, there are limitations. One is that there may be other reasons for a populist leader being able to maintain popularity during scandals. Examples are politics fatigue, apathy or country specific elements such as the lack of another suitable candidate. Furthermore, coding discourse inevitably possesses a subjective element and the author acknowledges the role she has in this method in discerning meanings within the texts. To combat that subjectivity, a straightforward coding scheme was used to code the texts. They can be referred to in the annex and make it possible to observe in a clear manner how a conclusion was reached regarding the coding of their rhetoric.
The external validity is the question of if the thesis results can be applied to other populists. The limitation is that the thesis only explores two populists and presents only four cases, which is limited. Having said that, two candidates can provide a comparison, as opposed to featuring solely one case which cannot offer a reliable pattern. Despite Berlusconi and Trump similarity, they do
73 Marianne Jørgensen and Louise Phillips. Discourse Analysis as Theory and Method. 29. 74 Marianne Jørgensen and Louise Phillips. Discourse Analysis as Theory and Method. 33-36
75 Robert L. Heath. 2010. „ Introduction Crisis Communication: Defining the Beast and De-marginalizing Key
Publics“ In The Handbook of Crisis Communication.. Editors: Timothy Coombs and Sherry J. Holladay, 2-3. West Sussex: Blackwell Publishing.
differ a great deal being from two different countries who served in a different time. Therefore, if a pattern is identified it is plausible and believable that other populists also use the same tactics when faced with a crisis.
Case Descriptions
Sex scandals
Berlusconi - “The Noemi Case”
On the 29th of April 2009, La Repubblica reported that Berlusconi had attended the 18th birthday party of Noemi Letizia on the 26th of April.76 At the time he was 72 years old. His presence there was undeniable as he had allowed for pictures with the young Noemi at the party which was also attended by Letizia’s parents.77 Berlusconi gifted Noemi a gold necklace with diamonds worth 6.000 euro.78 In an interview Noemi referred to the prime minister as “papi” and told her reporters of her dreams of becoming a television personality or a politician, and that “papi will decide what is best” suggesting that papi will give her the opportunity to be in show business or to be elected into Parliament.79
The next day Mr. Berlusconi’s wife, Veronica Lazio wrote an article in the same newspaper criticising her husband for consorting with underage girls, referring to it as ‘malaise’.80 She furthermore stated that she could not stay with a man who ‘‘dates minors’’81 and that her “husband is not well”. In addition to that, she said he had never bothered to attend his own children’s
18-76 Alessandro Chiaramonte and Roberto Dalimonte. “The Twilight of the Berlusconi Era: Local Elections and
National Referendums in Italy, May and June 2011.” South European Society and Politics 17, no. 2 (2012): 261–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2012.701793.
77 “Berlusconi Denies Relationship with 17-Year-Old Girl.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, May 5, 2009.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-berlusconi-sex/berlusconi-denies-relationship-with-17-year-old-girl-idUSTRE5446BK20090505.
78 Giuseppe D’Avanzo. “The Inconsistencies of a Political Case.” Ten questions to Berlusconi. La Repubblica May
14, 2009. http://temi.repubblica.it/repubblica-ten-questions-to-berlusconi/2009/05/24/the-inconsistencies-of-a-political-case/.
79 Dario Cresto-Dina. “Veronica, Addio a Berlusconi‘Ho Deciso, Chiedo Il Divorzio.’” Veronica, addio a Berlusconi
"Ho deciso, chiedo il divorzio" - Politica - Repubblica.it, May 3, 2009.
https://www.repubblica.it/2009/04/sezioni/politica/elezioni-2009-2/veronica-divorzio/veronica-divorzio.html.
80 Alessandro Chiaramonte and Roberto Dalimonte. “The Twilight of the Berlusconi Era: Local Elections and
National Referendums in Italy, May and June 2011.”
year-old birthday parties.82 She ultimately asked for a divorce.83 Consequently, people wondered what the nature of the relationship between Berlusconi and the young Letizia, and pondered if their prime minister could possibly have had sex with a 17 year old girl?84
Berlusconi claimed on the 6th of May to have seen Noemi, her friends’ daughter 3 or 4 times, and always with her parents.85 However, it was later found that Noemi sat with him at a presidential table on the 19th of November 2008. At the time she was still a minor and was unaccompanied by her parents, although she was with a friend who was also a minor.86
On the 24th of May, Letizia’s ex-boyfriend, Gino Flaminio, 22, told La Repubblica that “Noemi’s parents have nothing to do with this, the link was just with her”.87 He furthermore stated that Berlusconi had frequently telephoned Letizia complimenting her “angelic face” before flying her on a private jet to his Sardinian villa over New Year’s, where she alongside 30-40 other young female guests were put up in bungalows, a story which her mother later confirmed.88 The scandal was known by the whole country and widely spoken of and satirised on TV shows as well as online.
Trump - “Stormy Daniels”
The case dates back to 2006 but enters the media spotlight during Trump’s presidency. It officially began with The Wall Street Journal publishing an article in January 2018 regarding the president’s lawyer, Michael Cohen paying the former adult film star, Ms. Stormy Daniels $130,000. This
82 “Veronica, Addio a Berlusconi‘Ho Deciso, Chiedo Il Divorzio.’” Politica - Repubblica.it, May 3, 2009.
https://www.repubblica.it/2009/04/sezioni/politica/elezioni-2009-2/veronica-divorzio/veronica-divorzio.html. Original language: Quell'imperatore è ancora suo marito ed è il padre dei suoi figli, un padre che, seppure invitato, non ha mai partecipato alla festa dei loro diciott'anni,
83 “Berlusconi Denies Relationship with 17-Year-Old Girl.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, May 5, 2009.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-berlusconi-sex/berlusconi-denies-relationship-with-17-year-old-girl-idUSTRE5446BK20090505.
84 Rachel Donadio. “Prime Minister's Escapades Finally Raise Eyebrows.” The New York Times. The New York
Times, May 29, 2009. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/world/europe/29berlusconi.html.
85 “Berlusconi Talks to CNN (Italian).” YouTube. CNN, May 25, 2009.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skm8Wsuwubk.
86 Giuseppe D’Avanzo. “Ten New Questions We Are Asking Berlusconi.” La Repubblica. June 26, 2009.
http://temi.repubblica.it/repubblicaspeciale-repubblicaspeciale-ten-new-questions-to-silvio-berlusconi/2009/06/26/ten-new-questions-to-silvio-berlusconi/.
87 Giuseppe D’Avanzo, and Conchita Sannino. “‘Cosí Papi Berlusconientr Nella Vita Di Noemi.’” La Repubblica,
May 24, 2009. https://www.repubblica.it/2009/05/sezioni/politica/berlusconi-divorzio-2/parla-gino/parla-gino.html.
88 Tom Kington. “Silvio Berlusconi Faces New Questions over Relationship with Model Noemi Letizia.” The
Guardian. Guardian News and Media, May 24, 2009. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/may/24/silvio-berlusconi-noemi-letizia-italy.
payment was done one month before the 2016 election for an agreement that forbade her from publicly speaking about an alleged sexual encounter with Mr. Trump.89 Ms. Daniels claims she met him in July 2006 at a charity golf tournament in Lake Tahoe. In an interview with In Touch Weekly in 2011, not published until January 2018, she said Mr Trump invited her for dinner, and that she went to meet him in his hotel room. In the interview she stated that “He was all sprawled out on the couch, watching television or something .. He was wearing pyjama pants.” Ms Daniels said that they later had sex in the hotel room and that he has been trying to keep it quiet ever since. At the time of the encounter, Mr. Trump was married to the First Lady, Melania Trump who four months earlier had given birth to their son.90
When the story hit in 2018, Mr. Cohen, stated that “President Trump once again vehemently denies any such occurrence.”91 Furthermore, many raised questions on if the hush money potentially came from illegal campaign payments as using campaign funds because if so they were likely to have been in violation of federal law.92 Watchdog filed a claim that the alleged payment to a porn star was an illegal donation to the Trump campaign.93 Further clarification surfaced when Cohen said on 12th of February, 2018 that he had paid the sum out of his own pocket. He furthermore stated that he had not been reimbursed by the Trump Organisation or the campaign and stated that the payment had been legal, and not a campaign contribution nor a campaign expenditure.94
Daniels, filed a civil suit versus Trump March 6th in 2018, alleging that the nondisclosure agreement signed was void because it was missing Trump’s signature.95 On March 7th, Sarah
89 Michael Rothfeld, and Joe Palazzolo. “Trump Lawyer Arranged $130,000 Payment for Adult-Film Star's
Silence.” The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Company, January 12, 2018. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-lawyer-arranged-130-000-payment-for-adult-film-stars-silence-1515787678.
90 To Luckhurst. “Why the Stormy Daniels-Donald Trump Story Matters.” BBC News, BBC, 3 May 2018,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43334326.
91 Karen Yourish. “Here's Everything Trump's Team Has Said About the Payment to Stormy Daniels.” The New
York Times, The New York Times, 3 May 2018,
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/03/us/politics/giuliani-stormy-trump-statements.html.
92 To Luckhurst. “Why the Stormy Daniels-Donald Trump Story Matters.” BBC News, BBC, 3 May 2018,
www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43334326.
93 Josh Gerstein et al. “Alleged Payment to Porn Star Was Illegal Donation to Trump Campaign, Watchdog
Says.” POLITICO, 22 Jan. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/01/22/stormy-daniels-trump-payment-illegal-donation-357250.
94 Maggie Haberman. “Michael D. Cohen, Trump's Longtime Lawyer, Says He Paid Stormy Daniels Out of His
Own Pocket.” The New York Times. The New York Times, February 14, 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/us/politics/stormy-daniels-michael-cohen-trump.html.
95 “Stormy Daniels and Trump: The Conflicting Statements.” BBC News. BBC, August 23, 2018.
Huckabee Sanders, the White House Press Secretary stated that “There was no knowledge of any payments from the president.”96 On May 3rd Trump’s new attorney Rudy Giuliani disclosed that the president had repaid Cohen for the hush-money over a period of several months. He furthermore stated that the president was unaware of the specifics of it, but that he did know about the arrangements that Cohen would take care of things like this. The repayment to Mr. Cohen placed new scrutiny on the legal issues since Trump never reported the expenditure, loan or repayment, not in his campaign filings nor on his financial disclosure form with the government ethics office. From thereon, the main question centred on if the payment to the actress was intended to prevent damage to Trump’s likelihood of winning the 2016 election or to save his marriage. Historically, proving such claims has been difficult.97
On August 21, 2018, Cohen came before the United States District Court in Manhattan and admitted that Trump had directed him to arrange payments for two women in 2016 to refrain them from speaking publicly about affairs with Mr. Trump. He pleaded guilty to breaking campaign finance laws, alongside a list of crimes that unravelled his shadowy involvement in Trump’s circles. He furthermore stated that the payments to the women were made “in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for federal office” thus implicating the president in federal crime. According to this, the payment to Stormy is seen as a donation to the Trump campaign because by securing her silence it enhanced his electoral fortunes. The payment also breached campaign finance law prohibitions as donations of more than $2,700 are prohibited in a general election.98
In the aftermath prosecutors struggled with a Justice Department policy which forbids charging a sitting president with a federal crime. They furthermore had problems with regards to whether they had sufficient evidence to exhibit that Trump had understood campaign finance law and on if he had purposely violated them. He has thus not yet been charged with a crime. In July
96 Karen Yourish. “Here's Everything Trump's Team Has Said About the Payment to Stormy Daniels.” The New
York Times. The New York Times, May 3, 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/03/us/politics/giuliani-stormy-trump-statements.html.
97 Charlie Savage, and Kenneth P. Vogel. “The Legal Issues Raised by the Stormy Daniels Payment,
Explained.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 3 May 2018,
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