Citation for published version (APA):
Lysen, E. H. (1981). Output prediction for wind turbines in Weibull-distributed wind regimes. (TU Eindhoven. Vakgr. Transportfysica : rapport; Vol. R-475-D). Technische Hogeschool Eindhoven.
Document status and date: Published: 01/01/1981 Document Version:
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*9305811* EINDHOVEN oo'fwikke#ingssamenwerkin1f..H.
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DOCUMENTATIECENTRUM 8.0.S. - T.H.E. class.!AIJJ/f)I. II
dv. J datumI
OUTPUT PREDICTION FOR WIND TURBINES IN WEIBULL-DISTRIBUTED WIND REGIMES
by E.H. LYSEN
April 1981
WIND ENERGY GROUP Department of Physics
University Technology Eindhoven
CONTENTS Page .List of symbols ii
-.
I. INTRODUCTION 2. OUTPUT CHARACTERISTICS 2 3. WIND REGIMES 5 4. OUTPUT PREDICTION 104. 1 Ideal wind turbine (cubic output) 11
4.2 Wind turbine with quadratic P(V) curve 13
4.3 Wind turbine with linear P(V) curve 14
4.4 Constant torque 16
4.5 Comparison of the four P(V) curves 19
5. EXAMPLE 20
6. REFERENCES 22
GRAPHS 23 to 34
A swept rotor area m
C power coefficient
p
c Weibull scale factor mls
esystem dimensionless energy output
F(V) cumulative distribution function
F
fey) velocity frequency distribution function slm
G gamma function
k Weibull shape factor
L ratio AmaxlAd
p p r p ref T
v
v
v
c power rated power reference power: (C n) !p A V 3 p max time wind speedaverage wind speed
cut-in wind speed
design wind speed
furling wind speed
rated wind speed
W W W s mls mls mls mls mls mls
x dimensionless wind speed (= VIV)
x dimensionless cut-in wind speed (= V IV)
c r
x
d dimensionless design wind speed (= V/V)
x
f dimensionless furling wind speed (=Vf/V)
x dimensionless rated wind speed (=V IV)
r r
n efficiency
Ad tip speed ratio at design speed
Amax max. tip speed ratio
3
1. INTRODUCTION
Predicting the energy output of a wind energy convers~on system via
mathematical representation of both wind system and the wind regime becomes a well-established procedure.
In this paper we have chosen a Weibull distributed wind regime and a linear output curve for the wind system. The latter is questionable, although many of the small and large wind systems recently measured 'show this more or less linear behaviour between the cut-in wind speed and the rated speed. This is why we also compared the linear output with three other types of output curves, culminating in the cubic response, the ultimate goal of every
wind system designer.
The energy outputs are presented in graphs 4.5 - 4.10 at the end of the paper, showing the .dimensionless energy output as a function of the relative design wind speed for different values of the rated wind wind speed. The influence of the furling wind speed is shown in a
separate set of graphs 4.11 - 4.16. An example of how to manipulate
with the dimensionless quantities is given in section 5. The values
of e t are calculated by means of a programmable calculator
sys em
2. OUTPUT CHARACTERISTICS
The output characte'ristic of a windmill can _he determined by measuring the energy output and the average windspeed during a short time interval of say 5 or 10 minutes. Plotting the average power in this interval as a function of windspeed will result in a cloud of points, such as in fig 2.1.
kW Generated power 60 50 3 20 10 4 5 6 :...
..
' .-..
...
~.
7 8..
.
..
;. '.
.
,.
windspeed 9 10 11 12 13 m/sFig 2.1 Typical example of a power output curve of a wind turbine,in this case a Swedish 60 kW turbine [1] .
The shape of this output curve between Vcut · and V t d can
~n ra e
be described by various analytical functions, dependent on the
type of wind turbine. For the ideal windturbine the shape is a cube, but in practice a square or linear curve is a better approximation for the measured data (fig 2.2).
a c
v
c b I I Iv
V r r V_ dpi
/Ipi
II I I I I / I I / / / "t. / I ... I-
I Vc Vf Vc Vr Vfy
-fig 2.2 Four different shapes of the output curve of a wind
turbine between V and V
c r
a ideal, i.e. cubic
b quadratic
c linear
d derived from constant
Algebraically the shapes of the output curves lietween V and V
c r
can be written as follows:
cubic : quadratic linear : "constant torque load": 3 P(V}= a V 2 2 P(V}= a(V -V. c } P(V}= a(V-V } V4 c 2 P(Vl= a(V + b VcV 1 c (V =O} c (2.1 } (2.2)
(2.3}
(2.4}
Given the fact that in many cases the output curves are nearly linear, most graphs of section 4 are devoted to this linear output. For comparison purposes we have calculated the output with four different output curves in one wind regime
(figs 4.3 and 4.4)
To introduce the idea of the design speed we have to realize
that for all non~cubic output curves the conversion efficiency
C .Q of the wind system will vary as a function of V. This
p
means that at one windspeed V
d the system reaches its maximum
conversion efficiency (C n) • This windspeed is called the
p max
design windspeed of the system. It turns out that for the three non-cubic output curves a unique relation exists between V
d and V :c quadratic: linear :. "constant torque load": (2.S} (2.6) (2.7)
These values can be found t k 'a ~ng t eh d 'er~vat~ve. dPdV = 0 of the P(V) curves mentioned.
3. WIND REGIMES
There is a growing evidence that the velocity frequency dis-tribution of a wind regime quite satisfactorily can be approxi-mated by means of so-called Weibull functions [2], shown in
fig 3. I : -.
with: k: Weibull shape factor [-]
c: Weibull scale factor
[m/s]
[s/m]
(3. I)From a given set of winddata the Weibull shape factor can be determined by plotting the cumulative distributed data on a
so-called Weibull graph paper (fig 3.31 of which the
verti-cal axis bears the cumulative distribution function (fig 3.21
The scale factor c is a function of the average windspeed V and the shape factor k via:
I
V = c
r
(1+ -)k
By introducing a dimensionless windspeed
V x = -V (3.2) (3.3) (3.4)
I. 4 , -_ _- , .--_ _-,- , -_ _----, ---,- _ jf(x)
I
I.2f---+---+--+--\----t---+----+---j~--__j
o.
8f--~-__+_-.,f--_I_-+--+-+---__+---__+_---+_--___jo.
6f---,~_Pfl:_f_----'~+_----3oc---\\<+---+_----+----t---j 0 0.5 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 V x = - + V I. k 1.0 4. k = 2.5 2. k 1.5 5. k = 4.0 3. k 2.0Fig 3.1 Wind velocity distribution functions, represented by Weibull functions for different values of the Weibull shape factor k
I.0
,---r----:::;;;;;o"'-..,..--=_-::::::=---,
r
F(x) O. 8 f---f---I---I-1'--+.~---!---__j 0.6 f . - - - + - 1 - R - - - + - - - j 0.4 0.2 f--I--I:-J.--I-I---+---+---j 4. k = 2.5o
1. k = 1.0 2. k = J.5LO
3. k 2.0 2.0 5. k = 4.0 x ) 3.0Fig. 3.2 The cummulative distribution function F(x)
as a function of the reduced wind speed; the shape factor k is used as parameter.
4 3 2 1
I
I I I I I I I I II
I I I I I I I I II
I I I I I I I I+-1
k·axis 95 1ttttt 90 80 70 ~ 60 50 40-
> -1.1.. 30 c .2...
25 ~ 1-." .0 20 'C...
en "U 1S OJ > ·z ctI 10-
~E
6 ~ u 6 5 4 3 2+
. .
- point c-estimation 2 3 5 6 8 10 15 20 25 1)Weibull probability paper for wind energy studies.
Cumulative distribution functionFlv)versus
winds~v.
Wind Energy Group, Dept. of Physics, Uni•• of Technology, Eindho..n, Nl1herlands.
Fig. 3.3 Weibull paper
f(:xl=
k
k-l -Gx
G.k.x • e (3.5)
with the gammafunction: G(k} = rk(l+
t )
A reasonable approximation of this gammafunction for 1.5<k<3.5 is given by:
G(k)
=
0.2869 . k- 1 + 0.6880 . k- 0.1(3.6)
(3.7)
In coastal areas the shape factor of the Weibull distribution
generally is around k = 2. In this situation the velocity
distri-bution takes a relatively simple form:
k
=
2 (3.814. OUTPUT PREDICTION
The average output E of a wind turbine with an output curve P(V) in a wind regime characterized by a velocity distribution f(V} in a period T is given by:
co
E T
J
P(V}, f(Vl d Vo
In the case of a constant output power P
r between Vr and Vf
(4.1)
the expression becomes:
V r E =
T~P(Vl
f(Vl d V+ V c (4.21For dimensionless windspeeds one becomes:
x x
r f
E = TJP(X
1
f(xl dx + TPrf
f(xl dx (4.31Xc x r
As E(xl is still in joules (or watt hoursl preferably a
di-mensionless energy output e is utilized:
system (4.41 E PrefT E e = - - - = - - - = -system ( ) 1 2 PAV· 3T cpn max11
The result is:
esystem
=
x r pi jP(X1
f(xl ref x c x f dx +;r
j(X}
dx ref x r (4.5}This expression will be worked out for a number of output curves P(Vl, or better P(xl.
4.1 Ideal wind tur1ll.ne: cubic p(Vl curve
The ideal wind turbine possesses a cubic output curve between
Vc and V r: or: or:
-.
P(Vl = Cp max Tl!p
V3 A P(x) = C n!p
x3ti
A (4.6) p max P(xl P 3 ref xAbove V and below Vr f the output is assumed to remain constant:
P(V) = P r (4.71 P(xl P 3 or: = x ref r
With Weibull distribution as descrihed in section 3 the
dimen-sionless energy output becomes:
{X
k+2e = G
system
with (3.61
This expression for e t is shown in fig 4.1 for different
sys em
values of k, with x
=
0 and x = 00c f
1T 2
- 7; x
e dx +
For k
=
2 the expression becomes:J
r 'IT 4 esystem=2"
x x c 'IT 2 'IT 2 3( - -4 x - -4 x f \ x e r - e J rk=l .5 .k=2 k=2.5 k=3 k=3.5 x 0 c ind turbines x r Output ideal 2.0 1.5
o
1.0 k=3.5 k=3~
k=2.5 k=2 k=I.5 Io
.5 I k=1r
I
e systemo '
2 3 V r ) x rFig. 4.1 The value of e as a function of the
system
relative velocity x, for several values of the Weibull shape factor (related to a wind turbine with an ideal output characteristic).
4.2 Wind turbine with quadratic P(V} curve
(4.10) V 2_ V 2
r c
P(V}
=
PrThe quadratic P(V} curve chosen is [4]: V 2 _ V 2 c (4.11) p(V) = P r %
This is a special case of a gemeral formula adopted by Powell [4] }:
Vk _ V k c
This formula is chosen because it yields an analytical expression for the dimensionless energy output:
-Gx k r ) _ (x k _ x k) r c e-GX /
J
(4.12}The design windspeed of the windturbine given by (4.111 is:
or, for k = 2: Vd
=~.
Vc (4.13)In the quadratic case, with k = 2, the energy output becomes:
'IT 2 - - x (e 4 c 'IT 2 - - x e 4 r} (x 2- x 2} r c
-2!.x
2]
e 4 f (4.14)~} NOTE: This general formula is rather questionable, because
P(Vl now becomes a function of k. Here we will limit
4.3 Wind turbine with linear P(V} curve
The linear P(V} curve is given by 2.1 and possesses the following typical features (3):
v
= 1.5 V d c V 3 V c r 1} (C n)V = (Cpn)max 6.75 ;-3 ( -V -P r r c V 3 ( 3Vr ) or (C n)V (C n) d?
- - -1 p r p max Vd r (4.15) (4.16) (4.17)The energy output is found to be: xr TP
j
e-Gx k dx -Gx k r E = - -x -x - TPr e f (4.18} r c x cThe dimensionless energy output is found with (4.161 and (4.41:
2 -Gx k - x (3x - 2x d} e f d r 6.75 e ;:: system or in terms of x d: e = system xr xcje-GX k dx x x c r 2 ( -Gxk 3Xd) e dx 2
'3
xd 2 -Gx k - 6.75 x (x -x } e f (4.19) c r c (4.20)The latter function is shown in figs 4.5- 4.10 for a number of k-values and for x
f
=
00.The reduction in output caused by the choice of xf is shown
in figs 4.11- 4.16. The method of reading the latter graphs is
explained below in fig. 4.2. The function x
d 2
(3xr-2xd1 is plotted in the third quadrant as a help-function and is afterwards
-Gx k
multiplied by e f to yield the l e .
o
l
helPfunction
k=2
Fig. 4.2 The influence of the furling windspeed x
f = Vf/V on the
dimensionless energy output of a wind turbine can be calculated via the help function in the third quadrant of this graph.
With xf
=
00 the output of the turbine chosen (xd
=
1.1 andx
=
1.8) should have been e=
1.21 but the introductionr system
of the furling windspeed x
f
=
2.2 reduces this value to4.4 Constant torque load
The power outout of an ideal waterpumping windmill, consisting of
a pump with a constant torque and a rotor with quadratic C - A
p curve [3] is given by:
P(V2
=[~
V .L -"t
d (L - 1)] (C n)!p
d V P max with V c= VdF
A and L=
max A d V 3 A d (4.21l . k -Gx eThe dimensionless energy output is found to he
x r ·system -
X/
Gk
J
[~d·L
xl
[L
::x~
(L-I) ::].
[.-Gx/ _
.-Gx/]
dx -(4.222k=2 3 2
>
V3 r---1,'"====1
/,. 'VV2 ---I-constant torque loadL
~
a
2.0 p-.
1
1.6 V x=
-
-;. V x d 1.4 xf '" 1• 2 0.4rYst~.
8 f---+--II-U---l---I
x r V r VFig. 4.3 The value of e as a function
system
of the rated windspeed xr'
The value of x
0.8 0.4
o
1.0 x r V r = -v 2.0 ) 3.0Fig. 4.4 The value of e as a function of
system the rated windspeed x •
r The value of x
4.5 Comparison of the four P(VI curves
For comparison purposes the four P(V} curves mentioned before were plotted in the following conditions:
(11 (Ill. k
=
2, k=
2, and x=
(Xl f and x=
(Xl fThe design windspeed of x
d
=
1.4 has been chosen because atk
=
2 the three non-cuEic P(VI curves produce the highestout-put at tliis value.
Tlie value xd = 1.0 has been chosen because tliis is a more
rea-listic value in a practical situation, when some power during more liours is worth more than a lot of power during a small numEer of Bours. The curves are shown in figs. 4.3 and 4.4.
5. EXAMPLE
Suppose one wishes to know the annual output of a wind turbine with the following (linear) characteristics:
v
= 4 mls c V 9 mls r V f =15 mls D =10 m p = 8kW r V d = 6 mls (5.11 in a windregime with V = 5mls(5.2}
k = 2.5The first step is to derive the dimensionless quantities:
x = 0.8 x d = 1.2 c x = 1.8 r x f = 3
(5.3)
In fig 4.8 one finds: e t
=
1.2 for xf
=
00. The correctionsys em
for x
f = 3 can be found in fig 4.14 and shows that the correction
is negligible.
The definition of e gives the total energy output in a
system period T: E e (C n)
.!p
A V_3 T syst. p max (5.4) x) With formula (4.17): (C n) p max p r 3V (~- I)!p
A V 3 Vd dFor a year, i.e. T
=
8760 hours, the total energy output becomes with these data:E
=
19467 kWh/year (5.5)For a water pumping windmill with a linear output characteristic the procedure is similar. We assume the following data:
H
=
10 m V d=
5 m/s xd 1.25 Vr=
8 m/s x 2 V f 10 mls r=
xf=
2.5 D 5 m (CpT))max=
0.2 A = 19.6 m2V
= 4 mls k = I.75In fig. 4.6 one finds e
=
1.38 for xf
=
00. The correction forsystem
xf
=
2.5 can be found in fig. 4.12 and is estimated at~esys emt=
-0.10.The resulting e becomes 1.28.
system
The annual energy output is calculated with (5.4):
E
=
1.28*
0.2*
0.6*
19.6*
43*
8.760=
1688 kWhFor a head of
E
=
1688Note:
10m this corresponds to:
3.6 x 106 3
x 9.81 x 10
=
61944 m of water per year.Exact calculation with a "constant torque load" characteristic yields an annual otuput of 1600 kWh in this example.
6. REFERENCES [1] Gustavsson, B. Tornkvist, G. [2] Stevens, M.J.M. Smulders, P.T. [3] Lysen, E.H. [4] Powell, W.R. [5] Lysen, E.H.
Test results from the Swedish 60 kW experimented wind power unit
Second Int. Symposium on Wind Energy Systems
Oct. 1978, Amsterdam.
The estimation of the Parameters of the Weibull Wind Speed Distribution for Wind Energy Utilization Purposes
Wind Engineering, Vol. 3, nr. 2,
pp. 132-145, 1979
The output of water pumping windmills in non-Weibull distributed wind regimes
(it?- Dutch)
Internal Report, Eindhoven University
of Technology, ~ 396 D, March 1980.
An analytical expression for the
average output power of a wind machine. Solar Energy, Vol. 26, nr. 1,
pp. 77-80, 1981.
Comments on: lIAnalytical expression for the average power of a wind machine". Internal Report, Eindhoven University of Technology, R 474 D, April 1981.
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system
The graphs 4.5 - 4.10 of e versus x
d for different values of x
system r
are calculated with a TI59 programmable calculator. The programme calculates the value of the integral (see formula 4.20):
x -G k 2 r e = 3x d f e x dx system 2 1~
The value of G is approximated with:
G
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*
0.2869 + k-O•I*
0.688k
which is exact for k=2 and k=3 and accurate within 2% for 1.5 < k< 3.5.
The programme prints the values of k and the xr concerned and subsequently
prints the values of e for xd=O until 3 in steps of 0.1. If xd=3
system
is reached, or e has become negative beforehand, the procedure is
system
repeated for a higher value of x (x + 0.2) until the required number
r r
of xr's has been finalized. The integral is calculated with Simpson's rule, available in the calculator as PGM 09.
The programme is initialized by entering the following data via the labels B-E:
B value of first x minus 0.2
r
C required number of x 's
r
D Weibull shape factor k; after entering k, G ~s calculated and
displayed
E number of intervals for numerical integration (usually n=IO
is sufficient).
APPENDIX ~. t.: .-, .::. "! .-, i-' 1.':: 1_" -:' ..- ' ! tIi :' C: LC:L Ci( (17 t:S .:'" 42 ~:~TD 15 !J2 iJ7 elf ::.1·5 \.'>:: ~?El LE:L ~2 E: