RESEARCH PAPER
Long term effects of Mud Volcano eruption ‘Lusi’
for the river area from a social geographic and
ecological point of view.
A case study on the Javanese mud volcano eruption Lusi, 2006.
June 24, 2016
Interdisciplinary Project 5132INPR6Y
Coordinator: Dr. C. Tromp Sanne Juch 1058837
Lecturer: N. van Woerden Universiteit van Amsterdam
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Abstract
Mud eruption Lusi on Java had and still has significant consequences for its surroundings. Sidoarjo in Eastern Java, the home of the volcano responsible for the eruption, already suffered a lot of damage. People have been killed, villages destroyed and tens of thousands inhabitants were forced to move. Since 2006, the mud volcano has erupted tons of cubic meters of mud every day and is still going. Expected is that the volcano will keep erupting up to another 80 years. It is therefore very important to gain extensive knowledge about the long term consequences on its direct surroundings and its related river zone, both environmentally as socially. Especially since the mud stream is redirected into the Porong River, which has significant consequences for the ecosystem and the water quality of the river. This paper will provide an overview of the current situation, will assess the long term consequences based on the theory of resilience and will give recommendation for adaptations for the surrounding population.
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Content
1. Introduction ... 4
2. Theoretical Framework ... 5
2.1 Study Area ... 5
2.2 Characteristics of the volcano ... 6
2.3 System analysis ... 8
2.4 Ecosystem services ... 9
2.5 Resilience ... 10
2.6 Analysing the problem ... 11
3. Methodology ... 11
4. Results ... 11
4.1 Direct Consequences ... 11
4.1.1 Social impacts ... 12
4.1.2 Environmental consequences ... 13
4.2 Long Term Effects ... 14
4.2.1 Long terms effects for environment and ecosystems ... 14
4.2.2 Long term results for population ... 15
4.2.3. Current adaptations ... 17
5. Conclusions ... 17
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1. Introduction
Sidoarjo in Eastern Java, Indonesia is being swallowed by steaming mud for the last ten years. The mud originates from a nearby mud volcano that has been erupting continuously. Since the volcano came to live in 2006, it has destroyed homes, rice paddies, factories, and roads, killing 15 people, displacing 40,000, and harming the livelihoods of many more (Normile, 2011). The cause of the eruption according to many is the drilling of a well by the company PT Lapindo Brantas (Davies et al., 2006; Davies et al., 2008). More likely however is a fault slip associated with the Yogyakarta earthquake two days prior is the causing factor for the disastrous eruption (Mazzini et al., 2009; Sawolo et al., 2009; Lupi et al., 2013). The eruption has already been going for nearly
10 years, and the area affected by the volcano keeps growing over the years despite different containing measures taken (see figure 1). Different researches have shown that it will probably keep going for decades, varying from a little over 20 years to at least 84 years (Davies, Mathias, Swarbrick & Tingay, 2011; Rudolph, Karlstrom & Manga, 2011). Geologists agree that human intervention will not stop the eruption anytime soon, thus leaving the population of Sidoarjo and surrounding areas to deal with the mud in the best way possible (Istadi et al., 2010). Therefore it is of grave importance to look at the long terms effects, environmentally and socially.
A lot of research has already been done on the cause and the direct effects of the mud volcano eruption. This resulted in the short term solution of building dams and redirecting the mudflow to sea (Jennerjahn, Jänen, Propp, Adi & Nugroho, 2013). The aim of this research is to look at long-term effects of the infinite stream and will give recommendations concerning the problem. This paper will give an overview of the current situation (including an explanation on how the volcano works), will investigate the long term effects locally and for the river and coastal area and will provide recommendations for adaptations.
Figure 1 - Direct area affected by Lusi mud eruption, situation in 2010 (Istadi et al., 2010).
5 The research question that will be answered in this paper is: “What are the long term effects, environmentally and socially, of the Lusi mud volcano eruption on Java, Indonesia for the river areas?” This question will be substantiated by the sub-questions: “What were the direct consequences of the eruption for the water quality of the Porong river which runs along the volcano?”, “What were the direct consequences of the mud eruption for the livelihood of the local population?”, “What are the long term consequences of the eruption for the water quality of the Porong river which runs along the volcano?” and “What are the long term consequences of the eruption of the volcano for the livelihood of the local population?”
This paper will start with a theoretical framework which will provide a basis for answering the sub questions. The study area will be shown, the unique characteristics of the volcano will be explained and a system analysis will be done. Also, the importance of ecosystem services and the resilience of ecosystems will be explained. The theory of resilience will be used to analyse the problem, especially for long term consequences. The next paragraph will elaborate on the methods used to conduct this research. Then the sub questions will be answered in the results which will be followed by an integration of these results into the conclusion and discussion, including recommendations for adaptation possibilities.
2. Theoretical Framework
This part of the paper will provide a framework of theories and knowledge which will be used to analyse the eruption Lusi and its consequences. A short introduction into the study area will be given and a system analysis will be shown, this way all the important factors in play will be become visible and a clear overview can be given. The concept of ecosystem services and the theory of resilience will be explained. An explanation about the importance of these concepts for analysing this problem will conclude this chapter.
2.1 Study Area
6 The volcano is located in the centre of Renokenongo, a village in the Porong sub-district in the Sidoarjo Regency, approximately 37 kilometres south of Surabaya (see figure 2; Kusumastuti et al., 2002; Shara et al., 2005 & Tingay, 2010). The city lies north of the Porong River, which flows into the sea after approximately 20 kilometres. The study area affected by the eruption included 12 villages from 3 districts (Putro, 2012), as well as the Porong River areas. The Sidoarjo Regency is a densely populated area with 2,843 person/square kilometre. For comparison, this is 1/3 of the density of Hong Kong (6,294 persons/km2). This area is a buffer zone of Surabaya, the capital city of East Java Province and the second
largest industrial zone in Indonesia after Jakarta (Richards, 2011; Putro, 2012). The Sidoarjo Regency is dominantly characterized by rice fields and fishponds and is inhabited by 1.682.000 persons (see table 1).
Table 1- the Characteristics of Sidoarjo Regency (Richards, 2011).
2.2 Characteristics of the volcano
Mud volcano systems are a common feature of Eastern Java and “Lusi” is one of these volcanic systems (Abidin et al., 2009). Geologically, mud volcanoes are important manifestations of vertical fluid flow and mud eruption in sedimentary basins worldwide (Mazzini et al., 2009). Lusi is the largest mud volcano in existence. The formation of a mud volcano system requires fractures in overlying earth layers (Brown, 1990). These fractures make it possible for water and mud to mix and reach the surface, a process driven the release of overpressure from clay- and organic-rich sediments. Eventually this leads to impressive build-up of mud mountains (Mazzini et al., 2009). The source of the water and the mud do not have to be the same layer. The water might come from deeper earth layers and pass through higher clay- and organic-rich sediments layers, mixing the two components (Bristow et al., 2000; Deville et al., 2003). A mud volcano erupts continuously and may range from 1 meter high and wide up to 700 meters high and 10 kilometres wide. The temperature of mud volcanoes is generally much lower than the temperatures found in igneous volcanoes, ranging from 2 °C to 100 °C (Brown, 1990).
7 Normally, mud volcano eruptions only last for a few days, and very little is known about their eruption dynamics (Jakubov et al., 1971). The erupted mud temperature if commonly observed to be cooler than the temperature in the source region, which typically would be 75 °C (Mukhtarov et al., 2003). The LUSI mud eruption is an intriguing exception in both respects, as ten years after its appearance it is still active and erupting boiling water and mud (Abidin et al., 2009).
As the volcano did not stop erupting after a couple of days, the affected area kept growing slowly. Figure 3 shows the growth of the Lusi mudflow over the first year after the eruption started. It can be concludes that the area affected by the mud does not continuously grow but has alternating periods of growth and decline. For instance, the area affected is bigger in satellite photo C than in satellite photo D. This either indicates a fluctuation in the amount of mud produced by the volcano with the addition of some mud founding a way elsewhere or that actions have been taken by the local population to contain the mud. Since the last photo (F), the affected area has been varying in growth rate, although the general trend is a certain rate of growth.
The rate of growth is also dependent on the volume of mud being erupted by the volcano. Initially the volume of mud reached up to 140.000 m3/day. Since then the mudflow fluctuated a number
of times from being almost dormant to extremely active. For example, a significant increase in the volume of the mud erupting from the Lusi volcano was experienced in April of 2010. This was manifested in a second smaller eruption close to the main one. In the late 2010 the activity subsided again to no more than 10.000m3/day (Richards, 2011).
It is very difficult to predict how long or how active LUSI will be in the future. It is expected that the eruption rate will decrease over time, although the rate in which it will decline is still uncertain. Eventually it is expected that the eruption is will stop in the next 20 to 80 years. Since the discharge is variable and can suddenly increase, the levees, that have been containing the mud since November 2008, could still be breached and cause local highways and villages to be flooded (Davies et al., 2011).
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Figure 3 - Satellite pictures from October 2005 to May 2007 showing the growth of the Lusi mudflow. A) 6th October 2005. B) 29th August 2006. C) 17th September 2006. D) 20th October 2006. E) August 2007. F) September 2007 (Istadi et al., 2010).
During the first eruptions in May and June 2006 hydrogen sulphide was released from the Lusi mud volcano (Normile, 2011). Hydrogen sulphide is a flammable and highly toxic gas. This gas is heavier than air, thus it accumulates along the ground. Although this gas smells very heavily at first, it quickly disables the sense of smell, making victims unaware of its presence until it is too late. The gas poisons several body systems when it is over the threshold of about 300 ppm, the nervous system however is affected most (Lindenmann et al., 2010). Exposure to lower concentrations of hydrogen sulphide may cause eye irritation, a sore throat and nausea. Long term, low-level exposure can also result in fatigue and miscarriage. After these first eruptions there were no further instances of this gas reported by the local population.
Furthermore two other toxic chemicals can be found in the Lusi mud. Both arsenic and phenol are present in the mud.
2.3 System analysis
A system analysis, in the broad sense, is a general methodology that applies a system by taking all aspects of the situation into account, and by concentrating on the interactions between its different elements. By doing a system analysis, all the aspects of the situation become clearer and an overview can be given (see figure 4 on the next page). A distinction has been made between earth science (orange), environmental science (green), and social science (blue). By doing this it becomes clear that
9 experts from different disciplines are needed to conduct a detailed and thorough investigation, this also enables developing recommendations that will be acceptable for all aspects and disciplines of the problem.
Between the different aspects the dominant interactions have been made clear using black arrows. From this, it can be concluded that different aspects from multiple disciplines can have an influence on each other. For example, the redirection of the mud stream into the Porong River (classified as an earth scientific aspect) results in an input of toxic into the river (environmental). In turn, this influences the fish farm industry, classified as a social aspect, as this provides food for the local
population. In figure 4, each aspect is accompanied by a number corresponding with future paragraphs in this paper.
Figure 4 - System analysis of the Lusi eruption situation accompanied by the corresponding paragraph of this paper. In this analysis the aspect are divided in three different disciplines; earth science (orange), environmental (green) and social (blue).
2.4 Ecosystem services
Ecosystem services have been researched extensively because of its importance for human well-being (Boyd & Banzhaf, 2007; Fisher & Turner, 2008; Worm et al..2006). The simplest definition found for ecosystem services is: ‘benefits people obtain from ecosystems’ (Fisher & Turner, 2008). A more complex definition by Boyd & Banzhaf (2007) is: ‘components of nature, directly enjoyed, consumed, or used to yield human well-being’. These services include provisioning, regulating, and cultural services that directly affect people and supporting services needed to maintain the other services. An important factor that influences the function of the services is biodiversity. Theoretical and empirical work has identified linkages between changes in biodiversity and the way ecosystems function (Schulze and Mooney 1993; Loreau et al. 2002). It is also important to manage the services in a sustainable way. ME Assessment
10 (2005) states: “In a narrow sense, the sustainability of the production of a particular ecosystem service can refer simply to whether the biological potential of the ecosystem to sustain the yield of that service (such as food production) is being maintained”. Thus, a fish provision service is only managed sustainable if the surplus and not the resource base is harvested, and if the fish’s environment and habitat is not degraded by human activities. The term “sustained yield management” is used to refer to the sustainable management and yield of an ecosystem service (ME Assessment, 2005). If an ecosystem is disrupted, it can have several consequences for it services. The extent and period (or if it will become permanent) of the disruption is also dependent on the resilience of the ecosystem, which will be explained in the next paragraph.
2.5 Resilience
The aquatic ecosystems influenced by the Sidoarjo mud volcano has an important characteristic: resilience. Holling (1973) defined resilience as “the amount of disturbance an ecosystem could withstand without changing its basic structure and self-organized processes”. A system capable of restoring itself after a disturbance while adopting a new stability domain has a high adaptive capacity.
Figure 5 show a metaphor used to explain resilience: Ball and cup heuristics of system stability. Ecological resilience is described as the width of a valley while the adaptive capacity is represented by the different landscapes (Gunderson, 2000).
Social resilience is often closely related to ecological resilience. This is especially clear when assessing a social system that is strongly dependent on a certain ecosystem (Adger, 2000), such as the populations of the Porong River area dependences on the river ecosystems and its resources for their livelihoods. Both the ecological and the economic services must be sustained in altered state for it to be possible to maintain their current balance. A balance where, for example, enough food can be produced to maintain a certain population size. When the thresholds of an ecosystem is to be exceeded an alternate state of the system is necessary which will alter the balance which will affect the wellbeing of the population depending on the ecosystem (Scheffer et al., 2012; Juch 2016). For a more detailed explanation of the term resilience and its functions, see Juch (2016).
Figure 5 - Ball and cup methafore for resilience (Adger, 2000).
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2.6 Analysing the problem
Because the resilience of an ecosystems and its services is closely intertwined with the ability of the population to maintain livelihood, and plays such a large role when assessing the problems resulting from the Lusi mud eruption, this paper will be using the resilience theory to further assess and explain the long term problems and possibilities for adaptations. As mentioned before, the redirection of the mud stream Lusi in the river will have negative consequences for the ecosystem of the river and eventually of the coastal zone. The resilience of the ecosystem will also determine the amount of change in the services provided by the ecosystems. The danger especially lies with the fish and shrimp population living in the rivers which a lot of farmers depend on (Fitrianto, 2012; Kure et al., 2014). If the adaptive ability of the river and coastal ecosystems is low, it is assumable the ecosystems will change in such a way that will have negative influence on the fish population. As a result sustainable management will become even more important to make sure that if a population manage to survive the negative influences, it will not die out by overfishing.
3. Methodology
For the methodology of this research the system analysis has been used to discover the main important aspects of the disaster. This also provided a clear overview of all the aspects and variables in play. As mentioned before, the aspects have been divided into different disciplines. Each discipline with the corresponding aspects has been investigated from only that point of view.
4. Results
This chapter will focus on the results found during this research. First, an overview of the direct consequences of the eruption for the livelihood of the population and for the Porong River, as the mud stream is being redirected into the river, will be given. Next, the long term consequences, also both socially as for the river, will be discussed.
4.1 Direct Consequences
This part of this chapter will give an overview of the direct consequences of the mud volcano eruption and the current situation, socially as well as environmentally. The corresponding sub questions are “What were the direct consequences of the mud eruption for the livelihood of the local population?” and “What were the direct consequences of the eruption for the water quality of the Porong River which runs along the volcano?”
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4.1.1 Social impacts
To get a better understanding of the major effect the mud volcano eruption had on the local population, it is important to look at different aspects of the effects and the damage. Already the division has been made between short and long term consequences, where the long term consequences will be discussed in section 4.2.2. But one should also think of the direct damages, such as destroyed homes and cars, and the indirect damages, like infrastructure which slows down trade. Therefore the corresponding question of this section is: What were the direct consequences of the mud eruption for the livelihood of the local population?
The volcano can be seen as a system that maintained a certain equilibrium, a system that showed resilience to minor earthquakes and drilling activities. The earthquake two days prior to the eruption had such an influence on the resiliency of the system that the tipping point was reached. The result of this was the mud eruption flowing since 2006. The alternative equilibrium is one where the eruption in constantly flowing by the input of mud and water from underground and the overpressure still present. This new regime will hold until, for example, the overpressure declines. Eventually making the system hitting another tipping point pushing the volcano into a non-active state.
There here have been several socio-economic impacts after the mud eruption in 2006. One of the consequences of the mudflow was that people had to move out of their town and resettle in another town or city. As mentioned before, the mudflow spread very widely, forcing around 40,000 people to relocate (Richards, 2011). One could also see the population of Sidoarjo as a social system hitting its tipping point because of the mud eruption. The social balance maintained prior to the eruption was disrupted forcing people to look for a new “regime”, even when this was only possible in another area. The current area of Sidoarjo has a reached a new balance, a certain input of mud with an equal amount of mud as output.
Households were displaced to three different resettlement areas. Three eviction patterns have been identified based on the origin of their jobs. Workers (1) tended to choose locations near the city centre, while farmers (2) preferred to move as a group, maintaining their social network with other community members. Traders, self-employed workers and others (3) lost their jobs and were often unable to start a new business or find another job quickly. Therefore they were forced to live in severe hardship as a result of the forced relocation (Putro, 2012).
Not only did the mud eruption Lusi had an effect on the social factors of the surrounding villages but had also an impact on the economic infrastructure and assets of Sidoarjo Regency and East Java. The following assets were inundated: 1) Land and houses of the community, 2) Paddy, sugarcane, and other potency crops, 3) Plants’ buildings and equipment, and 4) Utilities, such as toll roads, electricity lines, irrigation lines, fresh water pipelines, telecommunication lines, and gas pipelines (Putro, 2012).
13 In addition to the loss of assets, the mudflow has also caused loss of economic revenue to the surrounding area. The estimated total economic cost for 2006–2015 is ¥328,959,700,000 (€2.76 billion).
Table 2 - Economic costs as a result of the Lusi mud volcano eruption (BPK-RI, 2007).
4.1.2 Environmental consequences
To minimize the enormous effects of the eruption on the direct surroundings, the mud of the Lusi eruption is partly channelized into nearby rivers. The channel has dams on either side to reduce the pollution of the mud on the direct environment. This redirection of the mud stream has polluted the Brantas River and its distributary the Porong River with the land derived mud which will have significant consequences for the ecology of the river (Jennerjahn et al., 2013). To be able to come up with an appropriate adaptation strategy, these factors need also to be concluded. Therefore it is important to get more knowledge about these consequences. The corresponding question therefore is: “What were
the direct consequences of the eruption for the environmental surroundings?”
Soon after the eruption in 2006, a rapid environmental impact assessment was conducted by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNEP/OCHA) to be able to take actions fast if necessary. They concluded that major destructive effects on the direct environment, such as the release of toxic substances on the agricultural areas, were not expected. This mainly because of the rapid build of the earlier mentioned dams. The only exception on this was for the sheer amount of mud introduced into aquatic systems which can cause anaerobic conditions and kill aquatic life (UNEP/ OCHA Environment Unit, 2006). According to them is the input of mud into the river by the redirection comparable to other natural catastrophic events that are responsible for the mass injections of land-derived material into aquatic systems. Examples of this are earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis and typhoons. They also concluded that the “Lusi” mudflow causes long lasting additional material to the river with negative consequences as a result. It makes the Indonesian mud volcano a continuous source of sediments and carbon to the aquatic environment. As no end of the mud eruption is yet in sight, the carbon and ammonium input will make the resulting oxygen depletion probably a quasi-permanent feature. In turn, this will cause long-term destructive effects on water quality and ecology of the Porong
14 River estuary, which will be discussed in more detail later on (Jennerjahn et. al., 2004; Smith et al., 2003; Seitzinger et al., 2010).
4.2 Long Term Effects
This part of the paper will explain the long term effects of the mud volcano eruption Lusi. The corresponding sub questions for this section are: “What are the long term consequences of the eruption for the water quality of the Porong River which runs along the volcano?” and “What are the long term consequences of the eruption of the volcano for the livelihood of the local population?”
4.2.1 Long terms effects for environment and ecosystems
As mentioned before, it is expected that the redirection of the mud flow into the river, with the development of oxygen depletion as a result, will have major impacts on the wider marine and river environment. This also will have knock-on effects for the many thousands of people who depend on local fish and shrimp industry for their living (Abidin et. al., 2009). Therefore it is of grave importance to get more detailed knowledge about this resulting problem. The corresponding sub question for this is formulated as: “What are the long term effects of the eruption Lusi, locally as well as for the coastal areas?”
After the mud is being pumped into the Porong River, it will be carried to the ocean approximately 20 km to the east. The mud will eventually accumulate in the river and may result in sedimentation through the riverbank which will spread across the fisheries’ aquaculture area along the coast (Kure et. al., 2014). The local Marine and Fisheries Board stated that if the mudflow cannot be appropriately released to the sea, the sedimentation will affect the quality of the water’s oxygen absorption in the river and estuary. However, it has also been discussed (Kure et. al., 2014) that flood related concerns because of the accumulation mud inflow may be an insignificant problem as it will gradually erode and be flushed away by the floods and high water flow during wet periods. Nevertheless, it is an urgent issue to investigate and keep checking this possible problem to find out which of the two discussed results is true (Kure et. al., 2014; Seitzinger et al., 2010; Jennerjahn et. al., 2004; Smith et al., 2003).
The concerns about the mud inflow being of negative influence on the water quality of the river and its estuary are the most prominent (Kure et. al., 2014). A wide discussion about the environmental impacts due to increased sediment from the Lusi on the river and estuary has been going on and many papers have been written on this subject. Pohl (2009) mentioned that some analyses classified the mud as non-hazardous and non-toxic. On the other hand, other evidence indicates according to McMichael (2009), that the mud polluted the Porong River with hazardous materials such as arsenic (As) and phenol.
15 An assessment has been done on the mud and it has been concluded to contain phenol and arsenic in concentrations exceeding US government environmental guidelines for residential soil. As phenol and arsenic is toxic to fish, aquatic vegetation and humans (Phillips, 1990; Saha, Bhunia & Kaviraj, 1999; McMichael 2009), this could lead to serious problems. USGS (2008). Consequently, it is assumed that the mud is toxic and may have serious effects on the livelihoods and health of shrimp and fishing communities located adjacent to the Porong River (Kure et al., 2014).
The assumption that the Lusi mud is toxic has already been taken into consideration by Fitrianto (2012). Based on the data of the Sidoarjo Fisheries and Marine Department, the fisheries production in the Porong and nearby districts was 7.338.500 kg in 2007, but reduced to 5.467.200 kg in 2008 (Fitrianto, 2012). Due to this reduction of 25% in one year, the farmers living near the Porong River took several actions and innovation in order to survive the disaster (Kure et al, 2014). A comprehensive review of the water quality survey of the Porong River has been provided by Fitrianto (2012), the several actions and innovations conducted by the farmers has been summarized and will be discussed in chapter 4.2.3.
It seems that the tipping point of the environmental system has been reached. The balance between the regeneration of fish and the amount removed by fishers has been disrupted by the sudden decline in fish availability. This as a result of the toxic characteristics of the mud that has been redirected into the river. This also caused the social-environmental system to be disrupted. Prior the decline in fish, a certain amount of people were able to survive thanks to the fish production, a certain balance was maintained. The system had a strong resilience, able to bounce back from small disruptions and fluctuations in fish productions. With the decline in fish there was also a declination in fish availability for food. As a result, less people were able to survive living of fish, forcing them to move elsewhere. When the population declined to a certain extent, the fish production and the population will get into a balance once again, reaching a new equilibrium.
Nowadays a new equilibrium has been established and a relatively steady fish production has been present. But as the life span of the volcano, and therefore the need for the redirection of mud into the river, is still uncertain, it is important to check the water quality and the fish production regularly.
4.2.2 Long term results for population
It proved impossible comparing the devastation and disruption caused by the Lusi eruption to many other disasters because of the slow moving nature of the Lusi disaster. With an earthquake, cyclone or a forest fire there is an initial massive impact on the environment and the population. Lives may be lost, infrastructure and services disrupted, and property damaged or destroyed, usually within a short but drastic period of time. In these cases, the media interest is usually high and donation of aid pour in which helps with the recovery and rebuilding of the area. In most cases, those affected by these
16 types of disasters would rebuild their houses and replace lost possessions. The lived lost would be grieved, and emotionally and financial struggle would take place for a significant period of time, however the communities would remain (Richards, 2011).
In case of the Lusi eruption it was different, there was an initial impact in all the general aspects, but because of the slow nature of the disaster there are some differences. Media interest was present as the situation became steadily worse, the focus of however was on the cause or trigger of the eruption rather than the need for help. As a result of this and the uncertainty of the length of the disaster, there initially no coordinated response from the government or international community. This did change over time, with the government paying compensation for the lost property and social disruption and with the redirection of the mud flow into the river (Richards, 2011).
Lapindo, the company initially blamed for triggering the eruption, have paid out almost six trillion rupiah (US$ 600 million) in compensation and mud flow mitigation costs, even though they have claimed all along that the trigger was not related to their operation (Richards, 2011; Putro, 2012 ).
The government has also spent trillions of rupiah on mud flow mitigation, social recovery
infrastructure, and compensation (through the mud mitigation agency BPLS ) and made the commitment to spend trillions more in the next couple of years.
As for the payment of the compensation, a whole team was put together to plan this correctly so the inhabitants got enough money to survive the period right after the disaster while making sure the government would be able to pay everyone. So the initial payment in compensation was decided to be 20% of the total compensation budget, the rest got spread out over time afterwards. Even though Lapindo was significantly behind schedule with the compensation in relation to the purchase of land and buildings, the vast majority of claims have already been paid or are being processed. In 2011, 12.947 out of the total of 13.143 had already been paid (Richards, 2011; Putro, 2012).
As part of the compensation scheme, Lapindo build and provided a new resettlement area. But eventually approximately 500 households from Renokenongo village still broke away from the group and decided to build a new village in another area Porong district. This area with the new village, previously used for sugarcane cultivation, was named the Renojoyo area (Putro, 2012 ).
Nevertheless, the most devastating and defining aspect of the disaster, which also makes this disaster unique compared to others, is the loss of community experienced by the victims. Indonesian people usually highly value the sense of community and especially local community. Families live for generations in or close to the same village, and may also operate small businesses, earning their incomes directly from the village and its surrounds. After a couple of months, when entire villages were
17 Therefore, no matter the level of financial assistance or compensation, for the community the lost would still be significantly large. Especially since 40.000 people were forced to relocate (Richards, 2011).
4.2.3. Current adaptations
According to Fitrianto (2012), there were four actions and responses taken by farmers living near the Porong River in order to overcome the pollution of the river. These include: 1) The farmers reacted spontaneously by protesting the BPLS and sought a compensation for their losses. 2) The farmers sold their ponds and changed their business to another sector. 3) The farmers changed their commodities cultivated from shrimp to other pollution-tolerant fish. 4) The farmers still cultivate the shrimp but by modifying their technique and practices with new methods such as creating a water filtering technique, finding a new feeding method, etc.
5. Conclusions
The paper will finish with an overview of what has been discovered and will give some adaptation and further research recommendation to reduce the immense impact of the continues mud eruption.
In this research we have found that the volcanic eruption of the mud volcano in Sidoarjo, Indonesia resulted in the government infrastructure and the regional economy being severely impacted, in the death of 15 people, the displacement of over 40,000 people, thousands lost their property or job, and it harmed the livelihoods of many more (Normile, 2011).
Already a lot of research had been done on the cause and the short term effects of the mud volcano eruption which resulted in the short term solution of building dams and redirecting the mudflow to sea (Jennerjahn, Jänen, Propp, Adi & Nugroho, 2013). The redirection of the mud via dams and channels did cause oxygen depletion and is destructive for the water quality and the ecology of the Porong. The United Nations had defined the environmental effects as destructive and said that rapid actions are necessary. They also concluded that because of the fact that there is no end of the mud eruption in sight, the carbon and ammonium input will make the resulting oxygen depletion probably a quasi-permanent feature.
In turn, this will cause long-term destructive effects on water quality and ecology of the Porong River estuary and Indonesia's coastal waters (Jennerjahn et. al., 2004; Smith et al., 2003; Seitzinger et al., 2010). It can be concluded that local fisheries and fish farms are damaged by the poor status of the water quality with a 25% reduction as a result. The resilience of the system has been tested and the
18 equilibrium has been disrupted, causing a shift in regime of this social-environmental system. The fish produced would not be able to sustain the same amount of people anymore because of this shift and resulting decline of fish availability. In the social field it can be concluded that the mudflow mainly forced people to move out of their town and resettle in another town or city. Also, the Lusi mudflow had also a major impact on the economic infrastructure and assets as a lot of direct damage has taken place.
Compensations for the damage by the eruptions have been paid by the government and by Lapindo. Nevertheless, the most devastating and defining aspect of the disaster is the loss of community experienced by the victims. Therefore, no matter the level of financial assistance or compensation, for the community the lost would still be significantly large.
Thus it can be concluded that the mudflow does not only influence the lives of the population of Eastern Java directly, but also indirectly. Adaptation is needed to minimize the impacts the mud will have in the future, although the best adaptation strategy is not yet known. However, from the previous sections some recommendations for adaptations and future research can be made.
Concerning the lifespan of the LUSI eruption, a lot is still relatively uncertain and a significant part is yet unknown or poorly understood. More research into the sub surface geography of the area is essential. Neighbouring governments should be encouraged to seriously consider a contribution (financial and/or technical) to this. Especially since mud volcanos are common in this area and there is no guessing how long the volcano will keep erupting.
Because the lifespan of the volcano is so uncertain, environmental concerns also remains, particularly concerning the amount of land derived material and mud being pumped in the river. As mentioned before, a new equilibrium in fish production/regeneration has been established. With the continuous stream of mud into the river in combination with the fluctuating nature of the amount of mud being erupted, it is recommended to check the mud composition, the water quality and the fish production/regeneration regularly .
Some uncertainties remains as this research had some problems with contradicting findings. For example, as already mentioned before, a large discussion has been going on about the toxic nature of the mud. Some argue that the mud is not dangerous at all while others concluded that the mud was toxic which resulted into a decline in water quality.
Also, in this paper it has been assumed that the findings by Fitrianto (2012) about the decline in fish production were correct. However, others argued that there has been no change in fish availability as result of the Lusi mud eruption. As this is a really important aspect of the livelihood of the surrounding area and its inhabitant, it is very important to conduct research in such a way that final conclusion about
19 this concern can be made. Especially since the uncertainty surrounding this problem makes the government hesitant with providing the necessary help and compensations for fishers.
Nevertheless, this paper is assumed to be of good help in getting a better understanding of the problem and in showing how this problem is cannot be solved without the help of expert from different disciplines.
20
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