The Human Geography of Expectations
‘A case study analysis of the hype-disappointment cycle of 3D television’
i
Amsterdam, 30 June 2014
Thesis, MSc. Business Studies – Entrepreneurship
and Innovation
Name:
Farmer, KC
Student number:
10658459
Study:
Business Studies
Course code:
6314M0223
Assignment:
Master Thesis
First supervisor: Gruijters, ACC
Second supervisor: van der AA, W
Table of contents
1. Introduction... 4
1.1 Problem statement and research question
5
2. Literature review... 7
2.1 Expectations in emerging technologies
7
2.2 The Gartner Hype Cycle model
9
2.3 Disappointment after the hype
10
2.4 The driving forces
11
2.4.1 The nature of innovation
12
2.4.2 Human psychology
13
2.5 Human geography
15
2.6 Summary
17
3. Potential influencers of hype... 19
4. Case: 3D television... 22
4.1 Google statistics
23
5. Research method: Investigating the hype...25
5.1 Data collection
25
5.2 Analysis 1: The Dutch and British hype
26
5.2.1 Method
26
5.2.2 Results
27
5.2.3 Discussion
30
5.3 Analysis 2: Bottom-up approach
31
5.3.1 Method
31
5.3.2 Results
32
5.3.3 Discussion
34
5.3.3.1 Positive expectations
34
5.3.3.2 Negative expectations
36
6. General discussion... 39
7. Conclusion... 44
References... 46
Appendix I
...
49
Appendix II
...
50
Appendix III
...
54
Appendix IV
...
55
Appendix V
...
57
Abstract
Although Gartner’s Hype Cycle model, which illustrates the process of overenthusiasm, disillusionment and the eventual realism emerging technologies go through, has been increasing in popularity, it lacks theory to clarify the differences in hype patterns in different contexts. The continuous process of globalization and the current international context of innovation have raised the question if human geography can have an influence on hype formations. We review the various literatures that discuss expectations and hype-disappointment cycles, and demonstrate the importance of human psychology in the development of inflated expectations. We then discuss the essence of culture, which can influence human psychology, and examine the cultural differences between Great Britain and the Netherlands. Followed by a case study analysis of the hype of 3D television in both countries some interesting findings were discovered, which led to the development of a proposed framework for future research to challenge and build on. The key findings are that the hype-disappointment patterns of the technology differed between the two countries, and that these differences appeared to be caused by situational factors, such as product-involvement.
1. Introduction
“When I once became sure of one majority, they tumbled over each other to get aboard the bandwagon.” – Theodore Roosevelt
The phrase jumping on the bandwagon first originated in American politics in 1848. The term relates to the spreading of conduct or beliefs among people, such as fads and trends. The probability of an individual adopting this conduct or belief increases with the proportion of individuals that have already done so. As more, and more people come to adopt this conduct or belief, and buzz is created others also ‘hop on the bandwagon’. However, not all bandwagons lead to Rome.
The evidence of conformity can be found in many areas, so too in the area of innovation. With the current media we are often confronted with technological hypes, the new ‘it’ crowdfunding project or a novel invisible Internet innovation. Many individuals jump on these bandwagons. However, these technological hypes have the tendency to inflate expectations, and inflated expectations can lead to disappointment. Emerging technologies in particular can fall victim to high rising expectations that may take the form of hypes. These hypes can attract resources and influence research directions. Unfortunately, these dynamics can have a negative effect when the expectations are not met. Hence, the credibility and reputation of the emerging technologies could suffer. In addition, resources and energy invested could go to waste.
When confronted with innovation, uncertainties, high risks, and delayed returns quickly come to mind. These factors make it a complex process. Gartner Inc., an American information technology research and advisory company, developed a graphical tool to reduce this complexity dubbed the Gartner Hype Cycle model, also known as a hype-disappointment cycle or hype cycle for short, which illustrates the process of overenthusiasm, disillusionment and the eventual realism emerging technologies go through. It can be used to determine the maturity, business benefit and future direction of an innovation. To be more precise, companies can use hype cycles to educate themselves about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry (Fenn & Raskino, 2008). It can help managers answer several investment related questions, such as the following: Should you make an early move? Is a cautious approach more suitable? Should one wait for further maturation? These questions refer to the risk associated with adopting an emerging technology within a company that in the end might not pay off. How do you separate hype from what is commercially feasible? By understanding the hype cycle, you can better time your innovation investment
decisions to maximize the chance of succeeding in the long term. On the other hand, companies who own the innovation or actors close to it can use the tool to determine the maturity and related hype status of their technology, which can aid strategic decisions. Some might use the tool to form strategies to influence the very hype itself, this occurrence will be discussed later in the thesis.
1.1 Problem statement and research question
Gartner’s hype cycle tool has been much discussed in recent literature. However, the tool is very generic and disregards the variability in hype cycle shapes in different situations, such as for different technologies. Theories are lacking to clarify these differences in shape patterns in different contexts. Although, there are clear benefits for the functionality of the tool for a better understanding of when and why hype-disappointment cycles differ for emerging innovations. This and the current international context of emerging technologies has led to the following research proposal to investigate if the hype cycle of a technology differs in different countries. Thus, does human geography have an influence on the shape of a hype-disappointment cycle? And if so, how profound is it? It is hoped that the results of this research will aid actors/managers close to the innovation to better understand their hype cycle in different cultural contexts, and enhance hype related decision-making. This thesis will focus on forming two independent hype-disappointment cycles of 3D television from two different countries, that of the Netherlands and Great Britain, in order to gain insights with regard to the influence of human geography.
Central research question: Does geographical context influence the hype-disappointment
cycle of an emerging technology?
In this thesis, we will examine the public discourse surrounding 3D television and analyze cultural and situational characteristics between the Netherlands and Great Britain, and figure 1 on the following page depicts a broad framework for our review. This framework was developed based on our literature review and research findings to show how geographical context can influence the shape patterns of hype-disappointment cycles. As the research advances the factors in our framework will be elaborated on, and the whole will be discussed more thoroughly later.
To investigate the central research question, the study will firstly, conduct a literature review, which discusses the concept and effects of expectations, the hype cycle as formulated by Gartner, and the associated disappointments and its consequences. Secondly, the paper will
analyze the forces at work that generate and form a hype-disappointment cycle. Thirdly, the concept of human culture will be introduced and differences between the Netherlands and Great Britain will be examined. Next, two separate analyses will be conducted, one focusing on the shape of the hype-disappointment cycle in each country, the other on the content of the media attention. Fifthly, the data will be analyzed and the framework is discussed; and finally, the study will conclude the findings and the managerial implications will be reviewed.
Figure 1. A framework for understanding how geographical context can influence a hype-disappointment cycle pattern.
2. Literature review
2.1 Expectations in emerging technologies
The American Heritage dictionary (2000) defines expectations as prospects, especially of success or gain. Borup et al. (2006) interpret technological expectations as the representations of future technological situations and capabilities. In short, expectations in the emerging technologies relate to our beliefs of their future potential. As expectations play an important role in hype and disappointment cycles, the following paragraphs will discuss the processes and effects of expectations in emerging technologies.
Collective expectations are the result of the transaction of expectations between a large number of individuals. They are formed through societal discourse (e.g. media). Moreover, innovation activities aid the development of collective expectations, and can be viewed as the materialized indicator of expectations. In brief, actors close to the innovation are guided by their specific and collective expectations, but also contribute to the formation of these expectations (Konrad, 2006). Figure 2 illustrates this process more clearly, where the actors influence the collective expectation by their innovation and discourse activities.
Figure 2. The relationship between actors’ activities and collective expectations.
(Konrad, 2006: p.432) In turn, these collective expectations can influence the actors, and can have a significant role in determining the direction of technological change, as well as the adoption rate of innovations. According to Alkemade and Suurs (2011) this occurs through several processes. First, expectations function as an allocation mechanism. There is a positive relationship between expectations and actors and activities. Positive expectations of an emerging
technology help to attract players and align the interests and actions of these players. Second, this process of alignment can create legitimacy for the emerging technology. Positive expectations can lead to strong protected niches around the innovation. Wherein, the technology is more likely to receive favorable evaluations, possibly leading to even higher expectations. Third, as mentioned earlier, expectations are vital in the mobilization of resources for the emerging technology. Finally, favorable expectations can help reduce perceived risks of a new technology by developers, which can aid the process and direction of technological change.
These processes illustrate the key role that expectations play in the development of technological innovations. Moreover, it is mentioned that expectations play a more vital role in the earliest phases of the technology’s life cycle. This can be explained by the higher uncertainty regarding future capabilities and adoption that characterizes the earlier phases of a technological life cycle (Alkemade & Suurs, 2011). In instances of certainty there is less room for expectations, reducing the value of beliefs of the future potential. Further, Berkhout (2006) argues that expectations differ in their importance and form. Validity and attractiveness of anticipations determine which expectations become more widely accepted and shared by people. Regarding form, expectations can be specific (applications of new technology) or more general (societal contribution of new technology), and positive (benefits of new technology) or negative (associated risks of the new technology).
Having acknowledged the importance and effects of expectations in technological developments, it can be argued that this creates incentive for actors to express and manipulate expectations towards a certain technology. Stakeholders and advocates of an emerging technology can, as a strategy, attempt to enhance the reputation through the management of expectations and information. This is referred to as a proactive expectations management strategy. Another strategy is the reactive expectations strategy, where players react to negative anticipations asserted by other actors in an effort to reduce or diminish the negative aspects. When successfully performed, it results in positive expectations (the larger the group of shared expectations, the more successful). Such strategies can create legitimacy towards a technology, mobilize resources, actors and activities, and reduce perceived risks by technology developers (Alkemade & Suurs, 2011).
However, the active management and manipulation of expectations, in combination with other factors, such as human tendencies, which will be discussed shortly, can result in inflated expectations. If these are not met, it could potentially harm credibility and the reputation of the emerging technology. Moreover, the invested time and resources could to go to waste
(van Lente, Spitters & Peine, 2012). An example of a technology not living up to its expectations is the Iridium handset. Iridium was a global satellite phone company that had developed a technology in the 1990’s, which enabled users with an Iridium handset global cellular communication. The new technology and service was expected to have a bright future. However, the technology was never able to meet its expectations due to technological difficulties (e.g. line-of-sight technology), which made the service unpopular. The company filed for bankruptcy in 1999, after it had invested over five billion US dollars to build and launch its satellite infrastructure. Besides wasted monetary resources, the technology’s credibility and reputation was damaged (Time, 2009). Two other cases where expectations suffered from a sudden downfall are, the interactive television and e-commerce innovations. These dynamics are often referred to as the hype-disappointment cycle (Konrad, 2006).
2.2 The Gartner Hype Cycle model
From what is discussed so far it becomes clear that expectations play an important role in the formation of hype. High waves of positive expectations can be indicated as hypes (van Lente et al., 2012). Jackie Fenn, the vice-president at Gartner, is the originator of the Gartner Hype Cycle model, which the company has been using since 1995 (Fenn & Raskino, 2008). The Gartner Hype Cycle model was developed to illustrate the process of overenthusiasm, disillusionment and eventual realism emerging technologies and innovations go through. The hype cycle is a graphical tool that can be used by strategists and planners to determine the maturity, business benefit and future direction of a certain technology. The model has been adopted by the press and organizations worldwide. The hype cycle is characterized by five phases:
1. Technology trigger; An emerging technological breakthrough initiates the process and starts things off. This phase is accompanied by the generation of significant media attention and public interest. However, very few technologies have the potential to start a new hype cycle.
2. Peak of inflated expectations; In this phase the new technology or innovation is confronted with hype. Publicity generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There might be some successful application, but more often failures. 3. Trough of disillusionment; Expectations diminish, because the innovation fails to
meet anticipations. Often, the new technology loses media attention in this phase. 4. Slope of enlightenment; The actual usability and benefits of the new technology
become more apparent in this phase. It is here, where technologies either make it, or fail completely.
5. Plateau of productivity; The advantages of the technology become widely demonstrated and accepted. The stability of the technology rises, and second and third generation improvements are made (Fenn & Raskino, 2008).
Figure 3 depicts the hype cycle and the five segments discussed above. The line illustrates the trajectory that emerging technologies go through over time, varying in their visibility and expectations. It is said that the model does not capture a unique phenomenon, but rather one that continuously repeats itself with every emerging innovation or technology that catches our attention. It does not only capture technological innovations, it can also relate to service innovations, management science innovations, and other forms of novelties.
Figure 3. The Gartner Hype Cycle model.
(Fenn & Raskino, 2008: p.9)
2.3 Disappointment after the hype
Hype is defined as excessive publicity and the ensuing commotion, as something misleading, a deception (The American Heritage dictionary, 2000). It should therefore, be no surprise that the hype in the form of inflated expectations is usually followed by disappointment or the trough of enlightenment phase, as actual outcome does not meet the initial anticipations. Disappointment is often characterized by a sudden downfall of positive expectations. Hereafter, a slow recovery might become apparent (slope of enlightenment) (van Lente et al., 2012). As mentioned earlier, and as the Iridium example illustrates, disappointments can lead to the substantial waste of invested energy, time and monetary resources.
Van Lente et al.’s (2012) research has shown that hypes are developed by expectations at different levels, namely expectations at micro- (e.g. individual firm), meso- (technological field), and macro level (society). Thus, the expectations of emerging technologies are developed by a complex interaction of specific, functional and general expectations. It is argued that the interplay of level of expectations strongly affects the negative consequences of disappointments in a technological field. Moreover, disappointments are influenced by the characteristics of the innovation itself, as well as the nature of the associated environment (funding, complexity of regulations, societal settings).
Further, when the applications of a technology are known and pursued, it is indicated that this has a negative consequence for the recoverability of a new technology after disappointment. The more specific an anticipated application is, the more difficult it becomes for an innovation’s expectations to be reoriented (van Lente et al., 2012). Thus, the more generic in use an innovation is, the less likely it is for consequences of disappointment to be large and profound.
Thus, there are two parties that can gain from a better understanding of what influences technological expectations. On the one hand, more information allows for better strategic decisions, which often concerns individuals or companies closer to the technological innovation. Actors and stakeholders can use the knowledge to better influence the very expectation themselves, or use it as a benchmark for performance. On the other hand, it allows for higher quality investment-related decisions. Consider a new technological breakthrough within an industry. Managers would have to decide if and when the technology should be adopted in their own firm. Is an early move wise? Or is a cautious approach more suitable and should one wait for further maturation? Many companies have jumped on a technological bandwagon that led them to bankruptcy. This does not merely apply to companies, consumers too are sensitive to the bandwagon effect and can enhance purchase decisions with a better understanding of hype and disappointment patterns.
2.4 The driving forces
Fenn and Raskino (2008) add to the Gartner Hype Cycle model by explaining how such a cycle arises again and again with emerging technologies. Two factors are at play here. That of human psychology and the nature of innovation. Human psychology drives our expectations higher than is justifiable by the current capabilities of the innovation. The nature of innovation, on the other hand, drives how quickly something new develops genuine value.
These two factors can be represented in two separate curves, and when they overlap, as is shown in figure 4c, the two explain the development of Gartner’s hype cycle.
2.4.1 The nature of innovation
Figure 4, depicted below, separates the formation of hype into two separate factors. This could help clarify how innovations differ in their hype-disappointment patterns. Let us first consider the nature of innovation in more detail, which relates to the maturity of an innovation (figure 4b). As mentioned earlier, a technological breakthrough starts the hype cycle off. However, before a technology reaches value for adopters it must pass through four stages of development along the S curve of maturity, which is depicted on the next page in figure 5.
1. The embryonic stage; the new technology is still in the lab and there is no commercial use yet.
2. The emerging stage; is where the innovation comes into early commercialization by suppliers. Potential adopters launch pilot projects and industry leaders implement the technology or starts developing complements.
3. The adolescent stage; is characterized by improved capabilities, a greater understanding of the technology, and the development of an associated infrastructure. 4. The mainstream stage; the innovation has demonstrated its value and is considered
established. Yet, the innovation might continue to evolve its capabilities (Fenn & Raskino, 2008).
It is often the adolescent stage that discontinues the disappointment marked by the trough of disillusionment and initiates the phase of enlightenment. However, the maturity of the innovation relates to the actual development of the associated technology, and thus, is not likely affected by geography.
Figure 4. Hype cycle components.
Figure 5. Maturity S curve.
(Fenn & Raskino, 2008: p.36)
2.4.2 Human psychology
Therefore, the focus of the paper lies with the human impact on the hype cycle (figure 4a). Although illogical, there is a huge acceleration of the expectations around a new innovation, a form of irrational exuberance. According to the authors Fenn and Raskino (2008) there are three aspects of human psychology at play here: attraction to the new, social natures and our propensity to use decision heuristics under circumstances of uncertainty. These three aspects all relate to our psychological evolution as human beings, which have developed in our complex and occasionally belligerent world. Unfortunately, they can lead to irrational behavior and possibly negative consequences.
First, our attraction to the new is said to already occur at birth. Babies seem to spend more time with objects they have never seen before, than ones that they have already encountered. Our heightened interest in unfamiliar things is referred to as the novelty preference. Dobelli (2010) refers to it as neomania: the mania for all things shiny and new. We seem to prefer the new and novel to what we already know and can predict. However, we need to be allowed the time to embrace the novel, as forced change is perceived negatively. Nonetheless, if we are allowed the time, we appear to overvalue novelty. Besides our overvaluation we often feel the need to share the experience or discovery. Communication and community discourse can cause the expectations surrounding an innovation to flourish.
The second force at work here is that of social contagion or social proof, which relates to our extreme sensitivity to what other people around us are doing and saying (Dobelli, 2013).
Although we want to be seen as individuals and unique, almost everyone seeks social acceptance as well. Often, this impulse to be influenced by others occurs unconsciously. Once enough people show interest in an innovation, a tipping point is reached, and the public discourse becomes self-propelling. Much as the bandwagon effect mentioned throughout the paper.
Finally, decision heuristics play an important role in human decision-making under uncertainty. Heuristics are simple decision-rules or mental shortcuts people often use, instead of evaluating all possible alternatives. They suffice under most circumstances. However, heuristics can also lead to flawed decision-making. With the availability heuristic, for instance, we tend to overestimate the probability of something that comes to mind more easily. Hereby, foregoing the analysis of both sides. For example, imagine wanting to adopt an innovation, it is likely that you will seek out supporting information rather than disconfirming evidence. These decision heuristics compound the effects of the novelty preference and social contagion. Thus, enhancing the probability of hype formation.
More articles can be found, which suggest that human psychology can influence the formation of hype. Dobelli (2013) discusses a cognitive bias called the hedonic treadmill, which states that positive emotions experienced by stimuli are often short-lived, and that after a while the positive effect wears out. So to it is likely that the excitement we feel from neomania will fizzle out. This fizzling out can help explain the disappointment phase after the hype. Another factor that could influence hype formations is involvement. Petty and Cacioppo (1983) found evidence to suggest that persons with varying levels of involvement (high vs. low) analyze information differently. Those that are high in involvement are more likely to take the central route to persuasion and base their evaluations on the strength of the presented arguments. By contrast, people who are low in involvement are less motivated to process the information and take the peripheral route to persuasion, which is often based on decision heuristics, such as the amount of arguments or attractiveness of presented images. In short, high-involvement individuals process information more cognitively, whereas people with low-involvement process information through affect. It can be argued that individuals who process the information more thoroughly (central route) are less prone to contributing to hype-driven expectations Finally, individuals can differ in their need for closure. People who are low in their need for closure experience less discomfort over situations of uncertainty than individuals with a high need for closure (Sweeney et al., 2010). If we could determine a culture to be predominately low or high in their need for closure, we would expect a delayed or smaller hype cycle with high need for closure cultures than their low need for closure counterparts.
Altogether, these factors have the potential to influence the hype-driven expectations. More interestingly, these forces are determined by human psychology and behavior, on which geography or culture can have an influence. Imagine Internet use, for instance, it is an accelerator of social contagion and differs among countries. In the Netherlands the Internet has a penetration of 93 percent, whereas in Great Britain only 87 percent of the people use the Internet (International Telecommunications Union, 2013). Or a culture’s degree of need for closure can be an indicator of a hype cycle’s shape. The higher the need for closure, the smaller the hype cycle.
2.5 Human geography
Given both globalization and the potential impact radical innovations can bring about, emerging technologies have been pushed to an international context. Through media prominent innovations are discussed worldwide, and potential markets are created far from the origin of the idea. Moreover, often, investments and actors are gathered on a global rather than national scale. Consider crowdfunding for instance, which is a form of microfinancing that entrepreneurs use to fund new projects by means of an open call through the Internet (Mollick, 2013). Being an online phenomenon, investors are geologically widely dispersed. Although this form of funding currently covers a small percentage of the financial start-up market, it is growing in popularity and has already significantly increased the amount of global investors, be they big or small. Furthermore, as discussed, human psychology plays a huge role in the formation of hype, which can differ across societies. All in all, this suggests that actors and managers involved with emerging technologies should at the very least take into account global aspects, such as differing cultural geographies.
Cultural geography can be seen as the study of cultural products and norms, and their differences and relationships across geographies. Culture is the overall framework wherein humans acquire information regarding how to organize thoughts, emotions, and behaviors in relation to their environment. Culture is not inherited, it is learned. It does, however, influence individuals how to think, how to feel, and instructs one how to act. It also teaches individuals how to interact and communicate with one another (Neuliep, 2011). Seeing that culture influences how we think, feel, act and interact, and thus, influences our human psychology and behavior, it can be argued that it plays a significant role in the development of hype. As Fenn and Raskino (2008) noted, the first part of the hype cycle constitutes hype-driven expectations. Here human psychology drives our expectations higher than is justifiable
by the current capabilities of the innovation. If human conduct is influenced by culture, it could very much be the case that culture also influences the intensity of the hype.
Further, Konrad (2006) stated that collective expectations are the result of the transaction of expectations between a large number of individuals. If culture affects how we interact and communicate with each other, so too does it influence how collective expectations are formed. This in turn could have an effect on the hype cycle of an innovation.
As mentioned earlier our research will entail the following two countries: the Netherlands and Great Britain. A book written by Hofstede, Hofstede and Minkov (2010), which focuses on the national cultural differences among countries, can provide us with a deeper understanding of the cultural and organizational differences between these two nations. First, however, let us consider the mental programming of human beings. According to the authors there are three levels of uniqueness in mental programming: human nature, culture and personality. Human
nature is what we all have in common, it is inherited and represents the universal level of our
mental programming. It determines our physical and basic psychological functioning.
Culture, on the other hand, is learned and specific to a group or category. Finally, the personality of an individual is partially learned and inherited and is specific to a person. It is
ones personal set of mental programs and is more unique than the previous two levels. If human nature is universally inherited and does not really differ among people from other countries, it is culture and personality traits that should receive our attention. Especially cultural differences, which are group specific, could play a vital role in possible deviations between the hype-disappointment cycles of the two countries.
Hofstede et al.’s (2010) research has identified several distinct differences between the Netherlands and Great Britain. The authors have analyzed 76 countries over a forty-year span and have ranked them according to six different cultural or organizational characteristic indexes. Table 1 depicted on the next page summarizes their findings related to the Netherlands and Great Britain. As table 1 illustrates, the Netherlands and Great Britain score alike on power distance, individualism and indulgence versus restraint. However, they do differ on their degree of masculinity, uncertainty avoidance and their long-term orientation. Could these factors have an affect on the formation of hype?
Table 1. Summary of Hofstede et al.’s (2010) findings. Index Definition Ranking Great Britain Ranking the Netherlands Power Distance Measures the distribution of power
and wealth. Extent to which people submit to authority.
65 63
Individualism The degree to which the interest of the individual prevail over the interest of the group.
3 4
Masculinity The degree to which masculine values are valued over feminine values.
11 73
Uncertainty Avoidance
A measure that indicates the preference for strict laws and regulation over ambiguity and risk.
68 55
Long-Term Orientation
A long-term orientation includes certain characteristics, such as persistence, ordering and observing relationships by status, thrift and sense of shame. A short-term orientation, on the other hand, includes personal steadiness and stability, protecting ones ‘face’, respect or tradition and reciprocation.
40 22
Indulgence vs. Restraint
The degree to which a society allows free gratification of natural human drives (enjoying life, having fun) versus the restriction of such basic needs.
14 15
2.6 Summary
Taken into account what is discussed so far, collective expectations are formed through societal discourse (e.g. media) and are the result of the transaction of expectations between a large number of individuals. They can have both positive and negative effects for emerging technologies. Collective expectations can determine the direction of the technological change, influence the adoption rate of the innovation, form as an allocation mechanism, help attract players and monetary investments, align the interests and actions of players involved, create legitimacy around the innovation, and help reduce perceived risks. However, expectations that are not met could potentially damage the credibility and reputation of the innovation. Moreover, monetary and non-monetary investments can go to waste. It can then be argued
that these expectations are worth managing or manipulating (expectations management strategies) and that a greater understanding of when and why these expectations vary will aid the process.
Gartner developed a graphical tool that captures the process of collective expectations, which illustrates the process of overenthusiasm, disillusionment and the eventual realism emerging technologies go through. It can be used to determine the maturity business benefit and future direction of an innovation. It is said to occur continuously with every emerging innovation that catches our attention. Two forces form the hype-disappointment pattern: the nature of innovation and human psychology. The nature of innovation refers to the actual development of the innovation. It is concrete, and relates to the genuine capabilities. Human psychology however, is illogical and is the cause of the huge acceleration of the positive expectations, which forms the hype. Our attraction to the new, social contagion, decision heuristics, the hedonic treadmill, and product involvement are all likely psychological factors that influence the formation and pattern of the hype.
Culture was illustrated as an overall framework wherein we obtain information on how to organize thoughts, emotions, and behaviors in relation to the surroundings. If human psychology affects a hype, and culture influences individuals how to think, feel and teaches one how to act, than too it is likely that culture indirectly has a role on the formation of hype-disappointment cycles. Moreover, the ever-increasing international context emerging innovations are confronted with enhances the importance of such cultural considerations. According to Hofstede et al.’s (2010) research The Netherlands and Great Britain are very similar with respect to certain cultural characteristics, but also differ in others, such as their degree of masculinity, uncertainty avoidance and their long-term orientation. It would therefore be interesting, and more importantly valuable, to determine if hype-disappointment cycles differ when analyzed from different societies.
3. Potential influencers of hype
There are two essential forces at work that shape the hype-disappointment cycle process. The nature of innovation and human psychology. The nature of innovation is concrete and less abstract, as it relates to the actual capabilities of the innovation. Therefore, it is unlikely to be influenced by geographical context. Human psychology, however, relates to the way we process or, in this case more importantly, misprocess information (Fenn & Raskino, 2008). Neomania, social contagion, decision heuristics, and the hedonic treadmill are all cognitive processes that cause the irrational exuberance visible with hype formations. In theory, there should be a positive relationship between these variables and hype sensitivity1. However, it
can be argued that these factors are part of our human nature, which according to Hofstede et al. (2010) all humans have in common. Nonetheless, it emphasizes the importance of psychological aspects in hype formations, and since culture relates to how a group of individuals think, feel, and act, it can be argued that human psychology, which forms a hype, can differ across societies and geographical contexts. Thus, culture, which does differ across societies, can play a vital role in possible deviations between the hype-disappointment cycles of the Netherlands and Great Britain.
Although Hofstede et al.’s (2010) research did not focus on hype-related dimensions, their study can give us some insights on the matter. As mentioned above, cultural characteristics can influence the human psychology of a group of individuals, and hence, how information is analyzed and processed. When comparing Great Britain to the Netherlands the two countries differ in their degree of long-term orientation, uncertainty avoidance and masculinity. At first glance, one would assume that a country’s degree of long-term orientation could play a role in the shape of a hype, as expectations concerning an innovation relate to its future potential. Suggesting that individuals with a high degree of long-term orientation would focus more on the future capabilities of an innovation, rather than the short-term speculations. However, the traits of long-term versus short-term orientation are not classified as such, but relate mostly to the differences between Western and Asian societies. Long-term societies, for instance, emphasize relationships ordered by status and being thrifty. Short-term societies, on the other hand, focus on characteristics such as, protection of one’s face, and spending. Although, a culture’s degree of consumption (saving vs. spending) is a likely influencer of the country’s sales of an innovative product or service, we are unable to establish a concrete relationship between the degree of long-term orientation and the shape of a hype-disappointment pattern.
1 The vulnerability of an individual or group of individuals to process information in a way that
The remaining two cultural characteristics, however, are more likely to affect the shape of a hype. A country’s degree of uncertainty avoidance, for instance, primarily focuses on the extent that people of a certain culture feel threatened by uncertain situations. Despite that the authors’ focal point was uncertainty within an organization, it can also relate to ambiguous situations outside the organization. The uncertainty related to innovation perhaps? If that would be the case, we can expect the Netherlands to have a higher degree of uncertainty avoidance with regard to emerging innovations, and thus, see a smaller or delayed hype compared to that of Great Britain. Or could masculinity affect the form of a hype cycle? The social norms of a high masculine society is ego oriented, money and things are important, and people live in order to work. By contrast, in a low masculine society people are relationship oriented, quality of life and people are important, and individuals work in order to live. It could be the case that innovations with high social status, which is arguably the case for 3D televisions, are more valued by high masculine societies and are therefore able to reach more hype than in feminine societies, and vice versa for life quality enhancing innovations. The cultural difference in masculinity and uncertainty avoidance between Great Britain and the Netherlands leads to the following propositions.
Proposition 1: Countries with a high degree of uncertainty avoidance have a smaller or
delayed hype compared to countries with a lower degree of uncertainty avoidance.
Proposition 2: Countries with a high degree of masculinity have a greater hype than
countries with a lower degree of masculinity when the innovation is high in social status. Vice versa for innovations that enhance life quality.
Besides differing in their degree of masculinity, uncertainty avoidance and their long-term orientation there is another characteristic more closely related to the 3D television case that differentiates the two countries: the average daily television viewing time per person. In 2012, Great Britain had an average television viewing time of 243 minutes per person a day, whereas in the Netherlands individuals only watched an average of 196 minutes a day (Statista, 2014a). This suggests that the product involvement is higher for British individuals than for Dutch individuals, as the product is used more intensively in Great Britain. According to Petty and Cacioppo (1983) attitude changes that occur through the central route (high-involvement) are longer lasting than those that occur through the peripheral route (low-involvement). When we view involvement as a continuum, varying in the strength of attitude change, we can expect British individuals to have a longer lasting attitude change than their Dutch equivalents. This suggests that positive or negative attitude changes of British
individuals towards the 3D innovation are sustained longer than those of Dutch individuals. This leads to the third proposition.
Proposition 3: A countries average involvement towards the innovation mediates the
duration of the hype and disappointment phase. High-involvement innovations have a longer hype and disappointment cycle than low-involvement innovations.
Based on what is discussed so far, we expect to see two different hype-disappointment cycles for Great Britain and the Netherlands. Our research will attempt to answer the following questions:
- Does an innovation’s hype cycle differ in shape when analyzed from the Netherlands and Great Britain?
- What factors seem to influence the shape of the hype cycles?
4. Case: 3D television
While the hype and disappointment patterns are widely accepted phenomenon in current expectation literature, it lacks theory that allows for differences between geographical contexts. In an attempt to reduce this knowledge gap the thesis will conduct a case study to examine the hype pattern of 3D television in different geographical contexts, that of Great Britain and the Netherlands. In the following sections the technology will be discussed in more detail and some differences between the two countries regarding the technology will be discussed before the research method will be elaborated on.
3D televisions or 3DTVs are the television systems that allow the spectator to observe ‘depth’. Hence, the logical dubbing of the technology as three-dimensional television. It is based on binocular disparity, the difference seen by the left and right eye, and to date several techniques have been developed to mimic or allow this phenomenon to occur. Currently, there are four techniques used to create 3D image:
A. Color separation;
Both left and right eye images are displayed on screen at the same time in different colors. Images for the left eye in one color and another color for the right eye images. Combined with color glasses that ensure that the right images go to the proper eye, 3D image could be perceived. However, this technology is rather old and the quality is very unsatisfactory. The technological advancements that will be discussed relate to the next technologies.
B. Polorised/passive glasses;
This technology needs a 3D television display that uses a polarised screen. Images for the left and right eye are lined up behind it, and each image is given a different polarisation. Besides a polarised 3D television display there is the need for polarised glasses, the right and left glass each have a different polarisation to ensure the correct images reach the proper eye allowing for 3D images.
C. Shuttered/active glasses;
Again, there is the need for both a television and glasses. However, the technology differs to the previous one as the images are not displayed simultaneously, but rather shutter between the images for the left eye and images for the right eye at a high frame rate. When the images are meant for the left eye, the right eye lens of the glasses is blurred and vice versa.
D. 3D television displays without glasses;
Multiple lens technology allows the television set to display multiple image beams, which enables the spectator to perceive depth without the need for special 3D glasses (Kunić & Šego, 2011).
Although, the first 3D film was shown in 1922, many disadvantages made the technology unpopular. However, 2010 appeared to be the year of ‘modern’ 3D. The first 3D television sets came out and 3D movies and 3D contents were released. CEO of Dream Works Animation, Jeffrey Katzenberg, called the technology “the greatest innovation that has happened for the movie theaters and for moviegoers since color” (Bell, 2013: p.1). Big shoes to fill for the new technology.
4.1 Google statistics
Google’s search engine is the worldwide market leader with a global market share of over 88 percent (April 2014). It is also by far the dominant search engine in the Netherlands and Great Britain (Statista, 2014b). As search engines are widely used for information gathering it is a great tool to analyze trends and popularity of search terms. Later in the thesis Google statistics will be used to support the analysis and findings of our case study. As an illustration of the insights Google can provide, and as a first glance to what the research might potentially encounter two findings are portrayed in this section. Appendix I depicts the average monthly searches of the keywords 3D TV for the Netherlands and Great Britain (May 2012 – December 2013) (Google AdWords, 2014). When analyzed per capita it becomes clearer how the two countries differ in their search intensity of the keywords. In Great Britain, in 2012, 3D TV was searched 0,308 times per 100.000 habitants. This number decreased in 2013 to 0,232. In the Netherlands the number of searches per 100.000 habitants was much lower, 0,167. However, it saw a smaller proportional decrease in 2013 compared to Great Britain, with 0,116 searches per 100.000 habitants. These numbers insinuate that the hype and disappointment cycle was less profound in the Netherlands.
This notion is supported by the statistics provided by Google Trends (2014). Google Trends is a public web tool of Google Inc. that presents the popularity of search terms. It illustrates how often a particular search term is browsed compared to the total search volume in a certain region. Figure 6 on the following page depicts a graph based on the normalized search data of the keyword 3D TV in the Netherlands and Great Britain. The vertical axis represents how often a term is searched, relative to the total number of searches globally. The graph shows that Great Britain had a higher trend with regard to 3D searches compared to the Netherlands,
which is also reflected by the average score, 23 versus 182. Thus, initial data provided by
Google does suggest that we will encounter two different hype cycles for Great Britain and the Netherlands regarding 3D television.
Figure 6. Normalized search data of the keyword 3D TV in the Netherlands and Great Britain.
Google Trends (2014)
5. Research method: Investigating the hype
In this section, the conducted analyses designed to clarify the concept of hype in differing geographical contexts will be presented. As mentioned throughout the paper, the two countries that will be used for this research are the Netherlands and Great Britain for its cultural differences and for lingual considerations. It is important to note that we are aware that culture is mostly a human phenomenon rather than a geographic one, as it is people that constitute culture not geographic location. However, the presented readings in the literature review support the notion that culture does differ in the two suggested countries. The following paragraphs will, firstly, present the conducted research developed to analyze the overall shape and duration of the hype in the Netherlands and Great Britain. Secondly, made media statements will be investigated more thoroughly in an attempt to find arguments for the findings in the first analysis.
5.1 Data collection
To explore the expectations surrounding the 3D television this study will evaluate the public discourse presented in the mass media, and thus, mostly capture the expectations at a macro (society) level. There are three arguments that rationalize this method. First, the public discourse with regard to expectations well indicates the common expectation in a technological domain, as they are shared beliefs. Second, as stated earlier, hype is partially determined by media attention, which mass media represents in the widest possible manner (van Lente et al., 2013). Third, to examine the difference in cultural context it was important to use the same form of media for the analysis in both the Netherlands and Great Britain, which discourse in mass media properly satisfies.
To analyze the public discourse surrounding 3D television in different countries four newspapers will be consulted. For each country two newspapers were examined rather than one to enhance the validity of the findings. The following newspapers were chosen: Algemeen Dagblad and De Volkskrant for the Netherlands, and The Times and The Daily Telegraph for Great Britain. These newspapers will be used to carry out the quantitative and qualitative analysis of media attention and statements. These papers were selected, because they represent the two largest non-tabloid paid daily newspapers with a science or technology section in their countries (CvdM, 2014; the Guardian, 2014). Although, tabloid newspapers tend to have higher circulations, they rarely focus on technological innovations. Moreover, the paid subscription newspapers have a more accessible archive.
Both the quantitative and qualitative analysis will be based on secondary qualitative data. Archival research retrieved from every newspaper’s database will be used for both analyses. In each archive a keyword search will be conducted. The following keywords will be used for the database search: ‘3D television’ or ‘3D televisie’ for the Dutch equivalents3. The results
will be filtered on date, 01-01-2005 till 31-12-13, and relevance. 2005 was chosen as outer limit, as the modern 3D television technology4 came to light in this year. To ensure relevance,
each article will be checked on appropriateness, only those articles that actually discussed the 3D television technology or related technologies, events and products will be included. An initial article count and date analysis should provide us with an estimate of the span and shape of the hype cycle.
5.2 Analyses 1: The Dutch and British hype 5.2.1 Method
The first analyses will have a deductive research approach in an attempt to answer the central research question. To focus on the human geography we will develop two country specific hype cycles of 3D television. To examine the hype and disappointment pattern we will conduct an analysis in a fashion similar to those conducted by Ruef and Markard (2010) and van Lente, Spitters and Peine (2013). Hype shall be determined by both media attention and media statements. As Ruef and Markard noted, solely media attention does not signify a hype, nor does a significant decline in media attention alone represent disappointment. Both a phase of extensive media attention and highly optimistic expectations need to be detectable to justify a period of hype. To mark disappointment, a clear drop in media attention accompanied by shifting expectations should be apparent. Hence, we will only recognize a hype if both significant media attention is apparent with actual positive expressions about the innovation. Thus, hype and disappointment shall be determined by a combination of quantitative analysis of media attention and qualitative analysis of media statements.
With regard to the qualitative analysis we will consider the expectation statements made in the newspapers concerning the future expectations of the innovation. The qualitative analysis of the articles found will provide us with more clarity regarding the made media statements. Expectation statements made and the overall prospect of the article will be captured in two groups of nodes. Every article will be analyzed using the same method. First of all, all comments made that discuss the outlook of the 3D technology will be classified as very
3 The search terms 3D television and 3D televisie included the results with 3D TV. 4 Polarised/passive glasses-, shuttered/active glasses-, and 3D televisions without glasses
positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative in the expectations group. Next, based on the statements made in the text, each article will be classified as having a very positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative overall outlook. Table 2 on the following page will be used to classify these expectations. By doing so it can be determined if a true hype is visible, not only in media attention, but also in highly optimistic expectations. On the other hand, a period of disappointment will be marked by a reduction in media attention and a shift in the expectations from positive to more negative outlooks.
Altogether, the analysis should provide us with four newspaper specific 3D television hype-disappointment patterns and two country specific hype-hype-disappointment cycles based on data from four separate mass media newspapers from the Netherlands and Great Britain. From this standpoint we will investigate the possible dissimilarities and correlations. Based on the presented propositions it is expected that the Netherlands and Great Britain will have two different hype-disappointment cycles. The Netherlands has a higher degree of uncertainty avoidance, a lower degree of masculinity and a lower product involvement. Proposition 1, 2 and 3 suggest that the Netherlands will have a smaller and/or delayed hype cycle compared to that of Great Britain. Thus, in our results we expect to see greater media attention and a longer duration of the 3D television hype for Great Britain.
5.2.2 Results
An initial article count after retrieving the newspaper articles gathered according to the data collection method provides a primary insight. The keyword search conducted in every database produced the following article outcomes. Algemeen Dagblad counted 37 articles and De Volkskrant 42. The Times counted a total of 34 articles and The Daily Telegraph appeared to contribute the least amount of attention to the 3D technology with a total of 27 articles. Combined the analysis included 140 newspaper items. Appendix II exhibits two of the articles collected to illustrate the type of data used. When divided by country, the Dutch newspapers seem to have devoted the most attention to the 3D innovation with 79 articles in total, compared to 61 British newspaper articles that addressed the 3D technology. Based on these initial findings the Netherlands has devoted greater media attention to the 3D innovation. However, when we include the date of the newspaper article appearances, a more precise picture becomes apparent.
Table 2. Classification of expectations.
Label Description Example
Very positive expectations
Very positive expectations that emphasize a breakthrough without mentioning forthcoming problems.
“The technological revolution (3D), hailed as the greatest innovation in moving pictures since Al Jolson opened his mouth and said - Wait a minute you ain’t heard nothing yet - has finally arrived.”5
Positive expectations Positive expectations on a future of a technology, without
mentioning forthcoming problems. Breakthrough character is absent.
“Cable companies Ziggo and UPC are going to offer 3D-television. Possibly even the World Cup soccer.”6
Both positive and negative
expectations
Neutral expectations seeing a positive future, but mentions problems that have to be solved for it to succeed.
“3D is clearly on its way to the mass market, but the electronics industry has yet to agree on a 3D standard format, however, leading to the risk of format war.”7
Negative expectations
Negative expectations seeing problems or risks around a technology, which decrease the success of this technology.
“I don’t think 3D can be used as wallpaper, particularly because you need the glasses and when you put them on it’s very isolating. You become very unaware of the person next to you.”8
Very negative expectations
Very negative expectations that could lead to commercial failure.
“Children and adults with less than perfect sight can suffer nausea, blurred vision and dizziness after watching 3D films”9
(Van Lente et al., 2012: p.1619)
5 Wallop, H. (20 March 2010). Samsung 3D TV: first review. The Times
6 Editorial staff. (7 April 2010). Ziggo wil het WK-voetbal driedimensionaal aanbieden. Algemeen Dagblad
7 Bannerman, L. (2 September 2009). Sony plans to put 3D TVs in homes by end of 2010. The Daily Telegraph
8 Singh, A. (16 December 2010). Sir David Attenborough: why 3D TV won’t quite take off. The Times
Appendix III represents two graphs that illustrate the four newspaper specific 3D television hype patterns. De Algemeen Dagblad, De Volkskrant and The Times all portray a substantial peak followed by a decline in media attention. With regard to media publicity, the patterns seem to correctly represent the first three phases of the Gartner Hype Cycle model: technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations and the trough of disillusionment phase. Yet, The Daily Telegraph does not depict the same pattern of inflated attention, but to a greater extent remain constant in their 3D coverage.
The country specific hype cycle is summarized in figure 7. The figure exhibits the combined newspaper hype cycles for the Netherlands and Great Britain, which shows the number of articles released semiannually. With the graph it is possible to determine the extent and timing of media attention the two countries devoted to the 3D technology.
Figure 7. Country specific hype cycle.
However, as mentioned earlier, media attention alone does not signify a hype, nor does a significant decline in media attention represent disappointment. Both a phase of extensive media attention and highly optimistic expectations need to be detectable to justify a period of hype. To mark disappointment a clear drop in media attention accompanied by shifting expectations should be apparent (Ruef & Markard, 2010). By assigning an overall level of expectation to each article a pattern indeed becomes noticeable. For all newspapers, at least
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 05 -‐1 20 05 -‐2 20 06 -‐1 20 06 -‐2 20 07 -‐1 20 07 -‐2 20 08 -‐1 20 08 -‐2 20 09 -‐1 20 09 -‐2 20 10 -‐1 20 10 -‐2 20 11 -‐1 20 11 -‐2 20 12 -‐1 20 12 -‐2 20 13 -‐1 20 13 -‐2 N umb er o f a rt ic le s
3D television hype cylce based on press articles
Great Britain The Netherlands
67 percent of the negative or very negative articles were written after June 201010. Thus, both
a period of extensive media attention and a period of decline were visible, and a more negative outlook accompanied the drop. Hence, the pattern visible in the graph justifies a proper hype and disappointment cycle for both countries. Here too, for both nations, the patterns seem to correctly represent the first three phases of the Gartner Hype Cycle model: the technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations and the trough of disillusionment phase. Arguably, the second semester of 2013 might mark the first step towards the slope of enlightenment phase. However, the inclusion of the year 2014 would be needed in the analysis to explicitly conclude this matter. Based on the first, second and third proposition formulated in the literature review, a smaller and/or delayed hype was expected for the Netherlands compared to Great Britain. These initial findings do not support the proposed direction of our propositions.
5.2.3 Discussion
The first articles to discuss the 3D television technology related to the public announcements of companies stating their pursuit of the commercialization of the technology, such as Philips and Disney. The moment of extensive publicity appeared with the introduction of the first 3D televisions at technology fairs, and continued soon thereafter with the commercial launch of the first 3D sets designed for use in the home. As figure 7 shows Great Britain seem to kick off their moment of hype in the first semester of 2008, whereas the Netherlands appear to dedicate more attention to the technology from 2009 onwards. Moreover, the two Dutch newspapers’ extensive publicity on the subject lasted a year longer than that of their British equivalents, till the end of 2012. The more negative outlook during the period of diminishing attention, or the through of disillusionment phase, mostly related to the disappointments regarding the technology to live up to its expectations, for instance, in sales and public interest.
As noted earlier, based on the three propositions formulated in the literature review, a smaller and/or delayed hype was expected for the Netherlands compared to Great Britain. However, as figure 7 illustrates the Netherlands dedicated more media attention to the 3D television technology, suggesting that the country experienced a greater 3D hype than its overseas neighbors. Although, it appears that Great Britain’s interest in the innovation started a year earlier, and the Netherlands’ publicity lasted a year longer, it is hard to concretely suggest that the Netherlands experienced a delayed 3D hype. From our literature review it was expected
10 Percentage of the negative or very negative articles that were written after June 2010: The
that the differing degree of uncertainty avoidance, masculinity and product involvement would lead to a smaller and/or delayed hype for the Netherlands. However, this is not supported by our findings. Yet, the results do support the notion that hype cycles differ when analyzed from different geographical contexts, as can be seen from our analysis of the Netherlands and Great Britain.
The analysis lacks the insight to determine what factors are at play and influence a country’s hype cycle. It is still possible that the factors uncertainty avoidance, masculinity, and product involvement affect the media attention a country dedicates to an innovation. Moreover, the results of the analysis are in stark contrast to the Google Trends (2014) findings presented earlier. Here, the frequency of the 3D TV keyword search indeed showed a higher interest for Great Britain, which does support our formulated propositions. Nonetheless, the analysis and the findings give insufficient room for the speculation of the validity and direction of the relationships of the suggested factors.
5.3 Analyses 2: Bottom-up approach 5.3.1 Method
To strengthen the analysis of the 3D television hype cycle of the Netherlands and Great Britain, and in an attempt to improve on the shortcomings of the previous observations, the second analysis will use a different methodology. In the previous sections theory inspired the research, however, in this part of the study a reverse fashion will be adopted following an inductive procedure. The analysis will follow the grounded theory approach, where the data is analyzed with a coding technique. Using a coding method relevant text will be indicated and labeled, where eventually conceptual categories will be developed from the coded parts, and hereafter lead to theory development (Boeije, 2009).
The data collection method is identical to that of the first analysis. Hence, the same 140 articles retrieved from the four newspaper databases will be used for the current data analysis. The analysis will consist of subdividing and reconstructing the data with the aim of translating the data into visible patterns and eventually theory. An open coding technique will be applied. After multiple readings of the data every sentence or multiple sentences that related to or developed expectations regarding the 3D television technology were labeled. The labels were developed according to the topic or theme the expectation discussed. For instance, if a sentence were to state that 3D television could cause nausea, the phrase would be marked and labeled as ‘health concerns’. If an article were to discuss the release of the Pirates of the Caribbean 4 in 3D however, the label would read ‘new 3D movie’.
