How Marketplace Rumors Circulate: The Intermedia Agenda-Setting Relationship Between Traditional Online Newspapers and Specialized Online News Outlets
Hye Seung Lee 10915842 Research Master’s Thesis Graduate School of Communication
Research Master’s programme Communication Science University of Amsterdam
Supervisor: Dr. Damian Trilling Date: June 30th, 2017
Abstract
An increasing number of marketplace rumors are initiated and circulated among different types of online news media because journalists frequently use the internet as a source of news. This study examines the intermedia agenda-setting relationship between traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets at the first and second level of agenda-setting. Automated content analysis was conducted for online news articles (N = 949) about rumors and leaks of iPhone 7 and 8, including articles from 12 traditional online newspapers and 4 specialized online news outlets. The results of VAR analyses suggest that traditional online newspapers and
specialized online news outlets do not influence each other in setting a news agenda at the first level. However, specialized online news outlets appear to have a positive agenda-setting influence on traditional online newspapers for the design,
specification, release date, and price attribute agendas at a lag of one day. Additionally, the traditional online newspapers were sub-categorized into major, business-related and tabloid newspapers; the results indicate that specialized online news outlets only have a positive influence on the major online newspapers at the first level of agenda-setting. Yet, results vary among the different attribute agendas of the three sub-categories in the traditional online newspapers.
How Marketplace Rumors Circulate: The Intermedia Agenda-Setting Relationship Between Traditional Online Newspapers and Specialized Online News Outlets
During a recent earning call with analysts, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook
complained that news reports about rumors and leaks of future iPhones caused poor sales of the iPhone 7 in the quarter. In opposition, journalists pointed out that the actual problem was the product itself and Cook was blaming the media for no reason (Epstein, 2017; Ulanoff, 2017). This was an unusual dispute between Apple and the media because the company is typically very secretive and refuses to comment on reports about rumors and leaks (Sääksjärvi, Gill, & Hultink, 2017). Does the media really write that often about iPhone rumors, as Cook said? What kind of news media was he referring to? These questions raise curiosity regarding how the rumor reports are initiated and carried out in the news cycle.
Nowadays, the most significant news provider across demographic groups is online news, and the aggregate of online news on computers and mobile devices surpassed TV news (Schrøder, 2014). For journalists, the internet also became a source of information in the context of shared journalistic norms; thus, regular patterns of intermedia agenda-setting between traditional media entities and new forms of media outlets were established (Meraz, 2011; Vonbun, Königslöw, &
Schoenbach, 2015; Heim, 2013; Sweetser, Golan, & Wanta, 2008; Lee, Lancendorfer, & Lee, 2005). While scholars previously focused on the intermedia agenda-setting relationships between the offline and online news media forms, it is now essential to examine how different types of online news outlets influence each other’s agenda. Among online media, niche online news outlets attract an audience by providing in-depth information on specific topics (Stanyer, 2009). So far, research has not directly compared the specialized online news outlets to traditional online newspapers.
Therefore, this study aims to determine the effects of intermedia agenda-setting among traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets, distinctively focusing on their practices of online news production.
As mentioned above, this study will explore a news topic related to rumors and leaks of a product launch. This is the era of technology, where the launch of a product receives significant attention from not only potential consumers, but also from the general public. Even long before a new product is released, rumors and leaks of designs and features are published online every day by a wide range of news
providers (Sääksjärvi et al, 2017). The internet has allowed greater access to news and instant communication; therefore, misinformation is now overwhelming present but still commonly circulated (Kimmel, 2004). Despite that, much uncertainty exists about the relation between the concept of marketplace rumors and the role of online news media. Simply put, there is limited information on how different types of online media outlets cover marketplace rumors and leaks. Thus, by comparing traditional and specialized online news outlets through content analysis and time series analysis, this study will provide a better understanding of how the two different online news media types affect each other regarding such rumors of a product launch.
This study seeks to investigate the first and second level of agenda-setting concerning the transmission of issue salience and attribute salience, respectively (McCombs, Llamas, Lopez-Escobar, & Rey, 1997; McCombs, 2005). Within research, there is a knowledge gap regarding the intermedia agenda-setting of traditional and specialized news media. Currently, little is known about the practices of online news production, including how specialized online media sets its news agenda. Thus, this study will shed a light on the role of specialized online news media in the creation of the online public sphere and news flow (Mitchelstein &
Boczkowski, 2009; Thorson & Wells, 2015). Moreover, research has not yet examined how rumors regarding the marketplace circulate among different news media types. Examining marketplace rumors within major online newspapers and specialized online news outlets will fill a gap in the current literature.
The findings in this paper will contribute to more efficient user experiences of news media use concerning a product launch, considering that users are often
misguided by marketplace rumors that have not been verified as true (Kimmel, 2004). On the other hand, firms should also be wary of their product information being the target of rumors by news media outlets, since information labeled as a rumor is likely to be evaluated negatively and its potential impact on firms and stakeholders is considerable (Kamins, Folkes, & Perner, 1997; Kimmel, 2004). The public relations professionals of firms would be able to handle such news more effectively with knowledge of how the news spreads from one media type to another. Based on discussions above, this study addresses the following research question: What is the agenda-setting relationship between traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets?
Theoretical Framework Marketplace rumors and news media
Information diffusion of a new product is mostly spread by word-of-mouth and social pressure of the consumers to adopt the product rather than by the control of the firm (Horsky & Simon, 1983). When it comes to marketing, the innovation
adoption model states that the steps towards adoption of a new product are:
Awareness – Interest – Evaluation – Trial – Adoption (Rogers, 1995). The stage of awareness, where a person first adopts new information, is crucial to shaping consumers’ interests. However, when there is no official information about an
upcoming product, such awareness is often raised by misinformation or rumors that are available on the web (Ahern & Sosyura, 2015).
Rumors can be defined as unverified information that contain instrumentally valuable statements or public concerns for a certain group (DiFonzo & Bordia, 2000; Shin, Jian, Driscoll, & Bar, 2016). Kimmel (2004) states that marketplace rumors are started and spread based on a group’s effort to discern the true facts and obtain cognitive clarity or closure. Similarly, Wang and Song (2015) discussed that rumors are created by uncertainties stemming from an inability of stakeholders to clearly acknowledge the characteristics (e.g., quality and capability) of products. Corporate stakeholders, such as employees and customers, pay attention to rumors that are related to firms. The scholars use expectancy violation theory to explain this phenomenon by presuming that stakeholders experience anxiety that their expectations might be violated by the firms’ behaviors (Wang & Song, 2015).
Prior research discovered that media coverage of marketplace rumors has a significant influence on financial markets and consumer perceptions towards firms (Laouiti, Msolli, & Ajina, 2016; Kimmel, 2004; Kamins et al., 1997; Marshall, Visaltanachoti, & Cooper, 2014; Sääksjärvi et al, 2017). Some studies evaluated the impact of social media platforms like Twitter on rumor diffusion and refutation (Shin et al., 2016; Wang & Song, 2015). A significant effect of pre-crisis media coverage as the moderator for rumor refutation effectiveness was also discovered (Wang & Song, 2015). Moreover, a recent study by Sääksjärvi et al. (2017) found that such rumors in news media shape consumer knowledge and interests towards new products, which in turn affects how consumers respond to subsequent official preannouncements made by the firms. Overall, previous literature has established the significant role of news
media for rumor diffusion, yet the route of rumor circulation among different news media types still needs to be investigated.
Nevertheless, some researchers argue that rumors contrast with news, since rumors are developed as they circulate via unofficial communication channels, whereas news is published by official outlets through confirmed sources (Shin et al., 2016). However, in a real-life setting, instances of news media organizations covering rumors and leaks are regular (Sääksjärvi et al., 2017). With the emergence of the internet, the public has unprecedented access to diverse information sources, which requires news providers to compete for readership (Ahern & Sosyura, 2015).
Newspapers now publish speculative stories that grab readers’ attention and appeal to a broader audience (Ahern & Sosyura, 2015). In other words, news media entities would still publish a rumor because it is regarded as much more sensational. Even respected news vehicles like the Wall Street Journal have regularly carried rumors that have not yet been publicly announced (Kimmel, 2004).
Ahern and Sosyura (2015) also found that out of 501 merger rumors covered by 2,142 newspaper articles, including the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, only 167 (33.3%) of them were accurate. They further stated that the media were more likely to cover merge rumors of large, public firms with high-brand values because such firms interest more average readers (Ahern & Sosyura, 2015). This prompts a need to understand how marketplace rumors are covered in the online news environment and which type of news media write rumors that are not confirmed by the firms publicly.
Specialized online news outlets
New forms of online news started to appear because technology has largely reduced the cost of publicizing and distributing information (Stanyer, 2009; Dimmick,
Chen, & Li, 2004). Among many types of the new media platforms, niche news outlets were created to offer specialized news and information (Tewksbury, 2005). Audiences can now consume specific information through the specialized news outlets, which provide in-depth information written by experts in the particular field. For instance, technology news platforms such as CNET.com and The Verge are well-known as the leading specialized online news organizations for topics related to technology (Bilton, 2016). However, previous studies have not distinguished specialized online news outlets from the online newspapers facilitated by the traditional elite news media.
In the broader sense, some scholars indicate that the difference between the traditional and specialized media forms could be explained by the characteristics of their main audience groups. They argue that heterogeneous audiences select a general interest medium like the traditional newspapers because they offer a broad range of content to suit the different tastes, interests, and opinions of the public. In contrast, a homogenous audience for a specific outlet consumes a relatively narrow range of content that appeals to that distinct group (McQuail, 1997; Tewksbury, 2005). In opposition, Stanyer (2009) argues that the traditional and specialized news media forms still serve the same audience that regularly consume news packaged by the traditional outlets, while a small percentage of them visit niche sites for more specialized information.
With respect to the homogenous audience of the specialized news outlets, one could argue that the type of news media would narrow audiences’ perspectives. For instance, Garrett (2009) has criticized that niche audiences tend to choose polarized news outlets that are exclusively supportive of their political opinions. However, other scholars suggest that new forms of media outlets would eventually benefit readership
in the long-term. The niche theory proposes that a new medium will always compete with traditional or established media for many aspects such as consumer satisfaction, consumer time, and advertising price (Dimmick, Kline, & Stafford, 2000; Dimmick et al., 2004). They argue that the competition between the old and new forms of news media would result in the older media being excluded or displaced (Dimmick et al., 2000). Similarly, the theory of uses and gratifications suggests that online news media would grow over the traditional news media because it provides utility or gratification to news consumers, especially in terms of contents (Dimmick et al., 2000; Dimmick et al., 2004). Altogether, the theories illustrate that the new media forms prosper by competing with the traditional media forms as they provide new solutions to old concepts. The relationship between the old and new forms of news outlets is
meaningful because they heavily influence each other to create a more advanced form of media. The present study investigates how the specialized online news outlets are related with the traditional news media organizations in terms of their online news productions and agenda-setting effects.
Intermedia agenda-setting effects between traditional and specialized online news outlets
Intermedia agenda-setting can be defined as a dynamic and routinized process of news diffusion, where coverage of one media outlet is influenced by the agenda of other outlets (Vliegenthart & Walgrave, 2008; Vonbun et al., 2015). In other words, one medium is regarded as one of the sources that might affect another medium’s agenda; thus, potential relationships of different media forms are highlighted in most of the intermedia agenda-setting research (Lee et al., 2005; Vargo & Guo, 2016). This study also explores the intermedia agenda-setting relationship between the two online news outlets at the first and second level of agenda-setting. The agenda-setting theory
of McCombs (2005) explained that the salience of issues is transmitted from one medium to another at the first level of agenda-setting, while both the salience and attributes of issues are transmitted at the second level of agenda-setting.
Several studies have already found intermedia agenda-setting effects between traditional newspapers and new types of news media. In the context of political events such as a presidential campaign, scholars examined the intermedia agenda-setting effects between the traditional online newspapers and political blogs (Heim, 2013; Sweetser et al., 2008; Meraz, 2011). Similarly, Lee et al. (2005) observed instances of intermedia agenda-setting between internet bulletin boards and traditional news media during an election in South Korea. Their research showed that traditional newspapers influenced the internet bulletin boards at the first level of agenda-setting (Lee et al., 2005). Moreover, intermedia agenda-setting between the traditional newspaper and online wire service was also discovered (Lim, 2006). Online wire service is another form of news outlet that was developed in the online news environment, which
provides utilities such as archives of past stories, hyperlinks to web-based information databases, and readers’ forums (Lim, 2006). The study empirically found that the issue agenda of online wire service was strongly influenced by the major online newspapers, whereas online wire service had only a causal influence on the issue agendas of the major online newspapers (Lim, 2006).
A recent study by Vargo and Guo (2016) suggested that emerging news media websites like BuzzFeed, Gawker, and Yahoo also have an intermedia agenda-setting relationship with traditional media organizations. They assumed that, unlike other types of news media, emerging news media would not be largely affected by the agenda of the traditional newspapers. Evidently, the journalists of online news outlets are not rooted in any traditional and offline media, which makes such online media
sources inherently different from traditional and partisan online media (Vargo & Guo, 2016). Emerging news media is a separate category that is traditional and non-partisan, which is not heavily influenced by the issue agenda of traditional media. This was supported by a time-series model, which showed that emerging news media was moderately more likely to set the issue agenda of the traditional online news media, namely New York Times and the Washington Post (Vargo & Guo, 2016). Similarly, the present study presumes that non-traditional news media in the online media landscape does not follow the agenda set by the mainstream online newspapers. Until recently, research has not considered how specialized online news outlets
perform in relation to the practices of traditional online news media. Thus, this is the first study to examine intermedia agenda-setting effects between the two types of online news media at the first and second level of agenda-setting.
The underlying assumption is that the competition between the media outlets and media market pressures would cause the transmission of issue agenda from one media outlet to another, since journalists often follow the news agenda of others to survive in the rapid online news publishing cycle (Vliegenthart & Walgrave, 2008). Similarly, Shoemaker and Reese (1996) stated that the effects of intermedia agenda-setting depend on news production and resources. Vonbun et al. (2015) shared this view by arguing that media types with a faster publishing cycle, such as online news, are monitored more often by other journalists than the major online newspapers are. Thus, they are more likely to be agenda-setters of the traditional media types. Based on this notion, specialized online news outlets would likely be the agenda-setters for traditional online newspapers in regards to marketplace rumors at the first level of agenda-setting because they have a faster publishing cycle and less rigid publication
processes than traditional online newspapers do. The first hypothesis is formulated below:
H1. Specialized online news outlets are more likely to set a news agenda for
traditional online newspapers than traditional online newspapers do for specialized online news outlets.
In terms of second level intermedia agenda setting between traditional online newspapers and the new types of online news outlets, previous literature presents mixed perspectives. For instance, Heim (2013) examined whether political bloggers influence the journalists of traditional newspapers at the second level of agenda setting by conducting a content analysis of news articles, blog posts, and candidate press releases. The results showed that political blogs were unable to set the news media’s attribute agenda about the candidates’ perceived characteristics, and the author stated that many journalists would question bloggers’ credibility, so they avoid being influenced by the bloggers (Heim, 2013).
On the other hand, Lee et al. (2005) found that the attributes of the issue agenda on the internet bulletin boards were independent from the attributes of the traditional newspapers. They argued that the online public sphere created in the internet bulletin boards served the role of opinion-leader, transmitting the attributes of the issue agenda to the traditional newspapers (Lee et al., 2005). Similarly, Vargo and Guo (2016) found moderate evidence that the emerging media set the agenda of the traditional media at the first and second level of agenda-setting by using the network agenda-setting model; however, they concluded that news agendas are mostly reciprocal across different issues and time periods, and no media takes a clear lead.
So far, the literature has not investigated intermedia agenda-setting between traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlets at the second
level of agenda setting with regards to marketplace rumors. According to Hannah, McCarthy, & Kietzmann (2015), rumors and leaks often include business models or products, strategic plans, planned mergers and acquisitions, product launch dates, designs, and working practices. In the context of rumors and leaks of a product launch, designs, features, prices and release dates could be discussed as attributes (Sääksjärvi et al, 2017).
That being said, this study suggests that specialized online news outlets would set the topic attribute agendas for the traditional online newspapers since they now serve the role of opinion-leader in media outlets. Traditionally, the New York Times has been widely known as the elite opinion-leader for many political and societal issues, which has stronger agenda-setting influences than local newspapers and TV news (Vliegenthart & Walgrave, 2008; Lim, 2006). It is logical to assume that the arguments of elite journalists from the major newspapers are simply more influential. However, an increasing number of studies suggest that the new types of online news media, such as political blogs and internet bulletin boards, are now the opinion leaders in the media landscape. The traditional major newspapers no longer solely serve the leader role. For instance, online news sites were found to be the opinion-leaders for traditional major newspapers during an election by showing greater agenda-setting influences on the traditional newspapers (Vonbun et al., 2015). A time-series analysis from Meraz (2011) also revealed that U.S. political blogs, which have specialized knowledge and analysis, were able to set traditional media’s online news agenda by serving the role of opinion-leader media. This study also proposes that specialized online news outlets should be regarded as the opinion-leader media, since they have specialized resources on a particular topic and are mainly written by experts that have in-depth knowledge and experiences.
Therefore, topic attribute agendas of specialized online news outlets will have stronger influences on topic attribute agendas on the traditional online newspapers than vice versa. Based on the discussions above, the second hypothesis is as follows: H2: Specialized online news outlets are more likely to set topic attribute agendas for traditional online newspapers than traditional online newspapers do for specialized online news outlets.
Methods
To test the hypotheses, an automated content analysis was performed based on a manually constructed dataset of online news articles.
Case Selection
The case study product that online news outlets report marketplace rumors and leaks about is the Apple iPhone. It is quite common to see online news rumors about designs and features of upcoming iPhone models (Sääksjärvi et al, 2017). This occurs because the iPhone is often considered the most popular and profitable product in the world (Williams-Grut, 2015; Heisler, 2017; Sääksjärvi et al, 2017). Therein,
consumers have high expectations towards future iPhones because Apple has been the leader of innovation in the recent decade. Among the series of different iPhone
models, the iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 are featured in this study to explore news media attention from traditional and specialized online news outlets. The iPhone 7 was unveiled at the Apple event on September 7th, 2016 and there is still no official information about when the iPhone 8 will be revealed. Thus, all the online news articles about the iPhone 8 are based on rumors and leaks.
Selection of the traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets was completed using a bottom-up approach. First, 54 recent online news articles were gathered in Google News with the keyword “iPhone rumor” as
preliminary data. From this data set, the official websites of the news platforms were reviewed to see whether they have been consistently publishing articles about
unveiled iPhones. Several news platforms were then selected based on several criteria for each type of online news media. Table 1 shows the overview of the online news articles gathered for each platform.
Table 1
The number of online news articles collected for each online news platform Type of
platform
Platform name Number of
articles
Total number of articles
Traditional The Washington Post 5
370 Traditional The Wall Street Journal 8
Traditional The Telegraph 27
Traditional The Sun 46
Traditional The Independent 39
Traditional The Guardian 8
Traditional The New York Times 3
Traditional New York Post 6
Traditional The i 7
Traditional Fox News 46
Traditional Daily Mail 71
Traditional Business Insider 104
Specialized CNET 58 589 Specialized BGR 339 Specialized Mashable 84 Specialized 9to5Mac 108 Total 959
For the traditional online news outlets, the New York Times
(https://www.nytimes.com), the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com), Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk), Telegraph (https://
http://www.telegraph.co.uk), the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com), the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com), Fox News
(http://nypost.com), the Sun (https://www.thesun.co.uk), Daily Mail (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home) and Business Insider
(http://uk.businessinsider.com) were selected. These platforms were chosen to represent a variety of traditional online news platforms. The New York Times, the Guardian, Independent, the Telegraph, the Washington Post, Fox News, the i, and New York Post are the major daily newspapers based either in the United States or the United Kingdom. The Wall Street Journal and Business Insider are business-focused daily newspapers, while the Sun and Daily Mail are categorized as the tabloid
newspapers. Some of the major daily newspapers, such as the New York Times and the Washington Post, published less than ten articles for the entire period, yet they were still included because they are widely regarded as the leading traditional online newspapers. The business-focused daily newspapers and the tabloid newspapers were selected because they have been consistently publishing about iPhone rumors and leaks.
For the specialized online news outlets, CNET, Mashable, Boy Genius Report (referred to as BGR), and 9to5Mac were selected. CNET (https://www.cnet.com) is a leading online platform that provides the latest technology news and product reviews (Bilton, 2016; “About CNET,” n.d.). Mashable (http://mashable.com) is an online multi-platform media for technology and digital culture topics; it also provides product reviews and tech business-related information for professionals (“About”, n.d.). BGR (http://bgr.com) is an online news platform that provides technology news and commentary focused on the mobile and consumer electronics market (“About BGR”, n.d.). Finally, 9to5Mac (https://9to5mac.com) is a specialized online news outlet that publishes news and reviews for Apple products only (“About 9to5”, n.d.). The four specialized online news outlets were chosen because they consistently
publish news articles about unveiled iPhone models. Also, they are representative of the specialized online news outlets. CNET, Mashable, and BGR were the leading platforms for technology news, and 9to5Mac only focuses on news topics about Apple products, which makes it the most specialized platform.
Data Collection
From each online news platform’s official website, the following keywords were used to collect the relevant articles: iPhone 7, iPhone 8 and iPhone rumor. Online news articles published by the selected platforms with the keywords during the 13-month period from June 1st, 2016 to April 30th, 2017 were reviewed. However, since the iPhone 7 was unveiled on September 7th, 2016, any news articles that were published about the model after the date were excluded because the articles were product reviews rather than rumors and leaks. Figure 1 shows the timeline of the time-series data. From the unveiled date, September 7th, 2016, only iPhone 8 and iPhone rumor were used as the keywords. Every article had to be manually coded to discern whether they were relevant for the study for the following reasons. First, many articles were about more than one smartphone model from various brands to compare the features and designs; therefore, only the articles that include contents solely about the upcoming iPhone model were collected. Second, some articles contained a video about the model rather than text; these were also excluded. Thus, a full-text of each article was skimmed, and it was only transferred into a codebook as daily time-series data if rumors and leaks of the unveiled iPhone model were discussed. The final dataset consisted of each news article’s publication date, type of the platform, platform name, title of the article, URL, and full text of the article.
2016-06-01 2016-09-07 2017-04-30 Figure 1. Timeline of the time-series data
Dataset
To aggregate and merge the data for the specialized online news outlets and the traditional online newspapers, the Python module pandas (McKinney, 2010) was applied. Both data were aggregated per publication date of the news articles and merged per the date index. Zero values were given to days in which no article was published for the type of news platform.
Media attention. Two variables, visibility_tra and visibility_spe were created to determine the number of articles published per day from each type of news media (traditional vs. specialized). From June 1st, 2016 to April 30th, 2017, the media attention given by the traditional online newspapers was for 167 days, while the media attention given by the specialized online news outlets was for 203 days. The combined dataset showed that online news articles about the unveiled iPhone were published by the two types of online news media in a total of 237 days.
Topic Attributes. A bottom-up approach was used to generate attribute
categories for automated content analysis. The most frequent 500 words out of 254,845 words were extracted from the combined dataset of the news articles
published by the traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlet. The researcher reviewed the extracted words and categorized them by similar
characteristics to form macro attributes that framed the unveiled iPhone. The four Time-series data starts Time-series data ends iPhone 7 unveiled
attributes were formed as follows: design, specification, release date, and price. First, the attribute of design for the future iPhone consisted of 28 words (i.e. design, curved, 5.8-inch, edge). Second, the attribute of specifications consisted of 33 words (i.e. OLED, wireless, camera, charging). Third, the attribute of release date consisted of 11 words (i.e. date, release, September). Finally, the attribute of price consisted of 5 words (i.e. price, cost, expensive). The full list of words for each attribute is found in Appendix A. The next step was to calculate the number of words for each attribute agenda found in the news articles. After aggregating the whole data set per
publication date, the number of words for each attribute agenda found in the news articles per day was computed for each online news media type into the following variables: design_tra, design_spe, specs_tra, specs_spe, date_tra, date_spe, price_tra, price_spe.
Data Analysis
VAR Models. In order to investigate the intermedia agenda-setting
relationships between the newspapers, Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis was used. Since this method of analysis is suitable to test variables as both independent and dependent variables, it can determine whether one type of online news outlet influences the other more or less (Vliegenthart, 2014). The Python module Statmodels (Seabold & Perktold, 2010) was applied in this stage. First, VAR analysis assumes stationarity of the time-series, which means that the mean of the variables is constant over time. Thus, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to check whether the series are stationary (Vliegenthart, 2014). If all the variables were confirmed as stationary, the next step was to select the optimal number of lags for each VAR model. Based on section-order statistics such as Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the best model specification was chosen. In
VAR analysis, ordinary least squares regression (OLS) is employed, yet caution should be used when interpreting its individual coefficients due to multicollinearity (Vligenthart & Mena Montes, 2014). Therefore, another measure called the Granger-causality test was completed. It indicates whether one variable exerts a significant influence on the other variable(s). More specifically, it shows that variable x is argued to Granger-cause another variable y if the prediction for y based on its own past is improving when adding x’s past to the equation (Vligenthart & Mena Montes, 2014). Lastly, since the Granger-causality test does not show the size or direction of the influence, cumulative impulse response functions (CIRF) will be tested, which
provide information of the consequences of a change (impulse) in one variable at time 0 on the following values of the other variables. This gives a more graphical
representation of the direct and cumulated size of the over-time effects from one series to the other series (Vligenthart & Mena Montes, 2014).
Result
Before discussing the results of testing the two hypotheses, Table 2 shows the mean visibility scores of the news articles containing rumors and leaks and the topic attribute agendas in the articles computed per day for traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlets. A total of 237 days from June 1st, 2016 to April 30th, 2017 were gathered into the dataset.
Table 2
The mean scores of visibility and attribute agendas computed per day for the two types of online news media
Media Type Traditional Specialized
Visibility M 1.56 (1.69) 2.49 (2.16) Min. 0 0 Max. 9 10 Attributes Designs M 13.00 (16.55) 18.61 (19.54) Min. 0 0 Max. 78 89 Specifications M 18.99 (25.64) 28.23 (29.14) Min. 0 0 Max. 160 155 Release date M 6.15 (9.25) 6.85 (10.55) Min. 0 0 Max. 68 95 Price M 1.34 (3.41) .89 (2.14) Min. 0 0 Max. 27 12
Note. Estimated standard deviations are given within brackets.
First, the specialized online news outlets’ mean visibility score is higher than for that of the traditional online newspapers despite the smaller number of online news platforms included for the specialized online news outlets. An independent-samples t-test was conducted and the specialized online news outlets published significantly more news articles about the unveiled iPhones than traditional online newspapers did on average, t(472) = 5.20, p < .001. Figure 2 shows visibility patterns in the two types of online news media. The numbers of news articles about the rumors and leaks for the unveiled iPhone models resemble similar trajectories in the
specialized online news outlets and traditional online newspapers over time. There are ups and downs at similar time points for both types. This shows that the amount of
media attention given to the rumors and leaks of the unveiled iPhones have been comparable to some extent in the traditional and specialized online news media.
Figure 2. Patterns of visibility of news articles containing rumors and leaks in traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlets
Next, the mean scores of the four attribute agendas were compared between traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets. As shown in Table 2, all the specialized news outlets’ attribute agendas have higher mean scores than those of the attribute agendas of traditional online newspapers. An independent-samples t-test was conducted and the average number of words found for the design and specs attribute in the news articles published per day is significantly higher for the specialized online news outlets than the traditional online newspapers, design: t(466) = 3.37, p < .001; specs: t(466) = 3.66, p < .001. However, the mean values for the release date attribute and the price of the specialized online news outlets do not differ significantly from the mean values for the traditional online newspapers at a 5% level of significance, date: t(466) = 0.77, p = .442; price: t(466) = -1.71, p = .088. Figure 3 presents the patterns of the four attributes agendas of the two online news
media over time. Overall, the trajectories have peaks at the similar time points in all the series.
Figure 3. Patterns of the four attribute agendas of traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets
Media Attention
Based on the Dickey-Fuller test, the stationarity of the time series were
established for all ten variables; thus differencing is not needed. As the next step, lags of up to ten days were tested and the best model specification was chosen as a Lag 1 based on AIC and BIC statistics. This was expected since the online media
environment accelerates journalistic co-orientation, and thus intermedia agenda-setting processes occur very rapidly (Vliegenthart & Walgrave, 2008; Vonbun et al., 2015).
H1 assumed that specialized online news outlets are more likely to set a news agenda for traditional online newspapers than vice versa. Table 3 presents an
overview of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models in the VAR analyses for the first level intermedia agenda-setting effects between the traditional and specialized online news media with a time lag of one day. The results suggest that there is no significant first level intermedia agenda-setting relationship between the traditional and
specialized online news media. The Granger causality test result shows that news media attention given by the specialized online news outlets does not Granger cause news media attention given by the traditional online newspapers at a 5% level of significance, t(466) = 2.51, p = .114, thus rejecting the first hypothesis.
Table 3
The OLS regression in the VAR analyses of the first level intermedia agenda-setting effects between traditional and specialized online news media within a lag of 1 day
Traditional Specialized L1 Traditional .214 (.075)** .166 (.097) L1 Specialized .093 (.059) .136 (.076) N 236 2.173 2.261 2.209 8.787 AIC BIC HBIC FPE
Note. Estimated standard errors are given within brackets; *p < .05. **p < .01.
Figure 4 shows cumulative impulse response function (CIRF) analysis for interaction between visibility in traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets. The CIRF indicates over-time cumulative increases in the dependent variable by a one-unit increase in the independent variable after a lag of one day. Although the relationship was not found to be significant, the cumulative impulse response analysis of a significant relation between the visibility in the two online news media types at L1 and L0 shows that one article increase in the specialized
online news outlets result in 1.21 more articles in the traditional online newspapers in the following day.
Figure 4. CIRF analysis for interaction between visibility in traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets
Attribute Agendas
H2 assumed that specialized online news outlets would be more likely to set topic attribute agendas for traditional online newspapers than traditional online newspapers do for specialized online news outlets. The four topic attributes, design, specifications, release dates, and prices were tested to examine the intermedia agenda-setting effects between the traditional online newspapers and the specialized online
news outlets at the second level of agenda setting. Table 4 presents the overview of the OLS models in the VAR analyses for the four attribute agendas of the traditional and specialized online news outlets within a lag of one day.
Table 4
The OLS regression in the VAR analyses of the second level intermedia agenda-setting effects between traditional and specialized online news media within a lag of 1 day Attributes T. design S. design T. specs S. specs T. date S. date T. price S. price L1 T.design .135 (.071) .163 (.086) L1 S.design .140 (.060)* .035 (.073) L1 T.specs .250 (.069)** .166 (.083)* L1 S.specs .137 (.061)* .073 (.073) L1 T.date .119 (.071) -.016 (.084) L1 S.date .263 (.062) ** .307 (.073) ** L1 T.price -.032 (.072) -.017 (.047) L1 S.price .539 (.115) ** .208 (.075) ** N 236 236 236 236 AIC 11.293 12.902 8.725 3.614 BIC 11.381 12.990 8.813 3.702 HBIC 11.329 12.937 8.760 3.650 FPE 80271.000 401040.000 6152.570 37.119
Note. Estimated standard errors are given within brackets; *p < .05. **p < .01. Design. The results suggest that the design attribute in the specialized online news outlets has a significant positive influence on the design attribute in the
traditional online newspapers in the following day. The results of the Granger causality test shows the design attribute in the specialized online news outlets
significantly Granger-causes the design attribute in the traditional online newspapers, t(466) = 5.33, p < .05. Yet, the traditional online newspapers do not significantly Granger-cause the specialized online news outlets for the design attribute with a lag of one day at a 5% level of significance, t(466) = 3.60, p = .058.
Specification. For the specification attribute, a significant intermedia agenda-setting relationship is found between the traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlets. The specification attribute in the traditional online newspapers has a significant positive influence on the specification attribute in the specialized online newspapers in the following day and vice versa. The results of Granger causality test indicates that the specification attribute in the traditional online newspapers Granger-causes the attribute of specification in the specialized online news outlets, t(466) = 4.02, p < .05. Also, the results of Granger causality test indicate that the specification attribute in the specialized online news outlets Granger-causes the specification attribute in the traditional online newspapers, t(466) = 5.01, p < .05.
Release date. For the release date attribute, there is only a unidirectional agenda-setting relationship between the traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlets. The release date attribute in the specialized online news outlets has a significant positive influence on the release date attribute in the traditional online newspapers in the following day. The results of Granger causality test suggest that the release date attribute in the specialized online news outlets Granger-causes the release date attribute in the traditional online newspapers with a lag of one day, t(466) = 17.87, p < .001, whereas the traditional online newspapers do not significantly Granger cause the specialized online newspaper for the release date attribute with a lag of one day at a 5% level of significance, t(466) = .03, p = .853.
Price. The price attribute also has a unidirectional agenda-setting relationship between the traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlets. The price attribute in the specialized online news outlets is found to have a significant positive influence on the price attribute in the traditional online newspapers in the following day. The results of the Granger causality test indicate that the price attribute in the specialized online news outlets Granger-causes the price attribute in the
traditional online newspapers with a lag of one day, t(466) = 22.05, p < .001. The traditional online newspapers do not significantly Granger cause the specialized online newspaper for the price attribute with a lag of one day at a 5% level of significance, t(466) = .14, p = .712.
Overall, the results show that the four attributes in the specialized online news outlets have significant positive influences on the attributes in the traditional online newspapers, thus supporting the second hypothesis. Figure 5 presents the cumulative impulse response analysis of relations between the attributes in the traditional
newspapers and the specialized online newspapers with a lag of one day that were found to be significant by the Granger causality tests. The CIRF graphs show that how a one word for the attribute increase that the independent variable has cumulative effects on the dependent variable over time. The CIRF presents that in the following day, having a one word for the design attribute increase in the specialized online news outlets results in .14 more words per day for the design attribute in the traditional online newspapers. A one word for the specification attribute increase in the
traditional online newspapers results in .17 more words per day for the specification attribute in the specialized online news outlets in the following day, while a one word for the specification attribute increase in the specialized online news outlets results in .14 more words per day for the specification attribute in the traditional online
newspapers in the following day. In other words, the traditional online newspapers have a stronger agenda-setting influence for the specification attribute on the
specialized online news outlets than the specialized online news outlets do. Moreover, having a one word for the release date and price attribute increase in the specialized online news outlets results in .26 and .54 more words per day respectively for the release date and price attribute in the traditional online newspapers in the following day. This shows that the price attribute in the specialized online news outlets has the strongest agenda-setting influence on the traditional online newspapers out of the other three attributes.
Figure 5. CIRF analysis for interaction between the attributes agendas in traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets
Additional Analyses
Separate analyses were performed to further explore the intermedia agenda-setting effects between specialized online news outlets and the following
sub-categories of the traditional online newspapers: major, business-related, and tabloid. Table 5 in Appendix B shows the mean scores of visibility and attribute agendas per day for the sub-categories of the traditional online newspapers.
Media Attention
Table 6 in Appendix C shows the results of OLS models in the VAR analyses of the first level intermedia agenda-setting relationships between the specialized online news outlets and the three sub-categories. Only one significant unidirectional first level agenda-setting relationship was found; the specialized news outlets have a positive first level agenda-setting influence on the major online newspapers with a lag of one day. The Granger causality test shows that news media attention given by the specialized online news outlets causes news media attention from the major online newspapers on the following day, t(464) = 14.81, p < .001. The CIRF analysis in Appendix D (Figure 6) indicates that an increase by one article in the specialized online news outlets results in .09 more articles per day in the major online newspapers on the following day.
Attribute Agendas
Design. The design attribute in the specialized online news outlets has a positive influence on the major online newspapers with a lag of one day, as illustrated by the Granger causality test, t(464) = 9.23, p < .01. The CIRF analysis shown by Figure 7 in Appendix E indicates that a one word increase for the design attribute in the specialized online news outlets results in .07 more words per day in the major online newspapers on the following day.
Specification. The specification attribute in the specialized online news outlets appears to have a positive influence on the attribute in the business and tabloid online newspapers. The Granger causality test shows that the specification attribute in the specialized online news outlets causes the attribute in the business newspapers, t(464) = 6.55, p < .05 and in the tabloid newspapers, t(464) = 4.41, p < .05. The CIRF analysis shown in Appendix E (Figure 7) indicates that a one word increase for the specification attribute in the specialized online news outlets results in .07 more words per day for the attribute in the business online newspapers on the following day. Also, a one word increase for the specification attribute in the specialized online news outlets results in .05 more words per day in the tabloid online newspapers on the following day.
Release Date. The results indicate that the release date attribute in the specialized online news outlets has a positive influence on the major online
newspapers with a lag of one day, as indicated by the Granger causality test, t(464) = 15.92, p < .001. The CIRF analysis in Appendix E (Figure 7) shows that a one word increase for the release date attribute in the specialized online news outlets results in .12 more words per day in the major online newspapers on the following day.
The specialized online news outlets and the tabloid online newspapers have an intermedia agenda-setting relationship for the release date attribute. The Granger causality test indicates that the specialized online news outlets have a significant positive influence on the release date attribute of the tabloid online newspapers, t(464) = 8.18, p < .01. In addition, the tabloid online newspapers have a significant negative influence on the specialized online news outlets, t(464) = 5.14, p < .05. The CIRF analysis shown by Figure 8 in Appendix F indicates that a one word increase for the attribute in the specialized online news outlets results in .09 more words per day in
the tabloid online newspapers on the following day. On the other hand, a one word increase for the attribute in the tabloid online newspapers results in .28 less words per day in the specialized online news outlets.
Price. The price attribute in the specialized online news outlets has a positive influence on the major online newspapers, t(464) = 21.00, p < .001. On the other hand, the price attribute in the major online newspapers has a negative influence on the specialized online news outlets, t(464) = 5.83, p < .05. The CIRF analysis shown by Figure 8 in Appendix F indicates that a one word increase for the price attribute in the specialized online news outlets results in .30 more words per day in the major online newspapers, while a one word increase in the major online newspapers results in .13 less words per day for the attribute in the specialized online news outlets.
Conclusion and Discussion Conclusions
This study examined the intermedia agenda-setting relationships between traditional online newspapers and specialized online news outlets with regards to rumors and leaks of a product launch. The findings in this study suggest that the two types of online news media do not set a news agenda for each other at the first level of agenda-setting. However, the design, release date, and price attribute in the
specialized online news outlets were found to have second level agenda-setting effects on the traditional online newspapers. For the specification attribute, the results reveal that the traditional online newspapers have a stronger agenda-setting influence on the specialized online news outlets. The results partially support findings from earlier research that traditional newspapers still impose stronger agenda-setting influences over new types of online media outlets, such as blogs and online wire services (Lim, 2006; Heim, 2013). However, since the design, release date and price attributes of the
specialized online news outlets have positive agenda-setting influences on those in the traditional online newspapers, it is evident that specialized online news outlets are more likely to set topic attribute agendas for traditional online newspapers. Discussion
Although the intermedia agenda-setting relationship was not present at the first level, specialized online news outlets may still set the attribute agendas for traditional online newspapers. The findings were similar to the results discovered by Lee et al. (2005), in which the traditional major newspapers set an issue agenda for the internet bulletin boards at the first level of agenda-setting, and the internet bulletin boards influenced the major newspapers at the second level of agenda-setting. Further analysis of agenda-setting research regarding the relationship between traditional and new forms of online news media confirms that the second level of agenda-setting does not always require the first level of agenda-setting.
Surely, this study is a crucial step towards revealing the intermedia agenda-setting relationship between traditional and specialized forms of online news media because it expands on recent literature that has compared new forms of online news media to the traditional forms (Vonbun et al., 2015; Vargo & Guo, 2016). Neither print nor online versions of the traditional newspapers solely serve the role of an agenda-setter for the other types of news media any longer. Based on this notion, this study has extended the scope of intermedia agenda-setting research by examining the sub-categories of the traditional online newspapers (major, business-related, tabloid online newspapers). The findings confirm the assumption that intermedia agenda-setting relationships with specialized online news outlets would vary because the audience characteristics within the sub-categories of traditional online newspapers are not the same (Örnebring & Jönsson, 2004; Dutta-Bergman, 2004).
The most notable finding from the additional analysis was that the major and tabloid online newspapers have negative agenda-setting influences on the specialized online news outlets for the price and release date attribute agendas respectively, while the specialized online news outlets have positive agenda-setting influences on the two types of traditional online newspapers. One explanation for this outcome is that journalists from specialized online news outlets do not rely on the major and tabloid online newspapers as a source of information because they are considered general or sensationalistic (Örnebring & Jönsson, 2004). Future research on intermedia agenda-setting among traditional online newspapers and other types of news media should further investigate the sub-categories of the traditional online newspapers, since they might have varying relations depending on attribute agendas.
Moreover, this study provides a theoretical insight into the news coverage for rumors and leaks of a product launch. In line with findings by Kimmel (2004) and Ahern and Sosyura (2015), the traditional online newspapers publish rumors and leaks on many occasions. In future studies, the four attributes (design, specification, release date, and price) of rumors and leaks of a product launch can be used along with the predictors of rumor accuracy to develop a better understanding of
marketplace rumors and the role of news media in rumor circulation (Ahern & Sosyura, 2015). Also, this study was the first to take an automated approach to analyzing marketplace rumors and leaks of a product launch. However, the data retrieval was not completed automatically; thus, future researchers could explore an even larger amount of data through an automated approach like web scraping to collect online news articles (Mitchell, 2015).
This study also contributes to an understanding of online news flows about marketplace rumors and leaks, which may help public relations and marketing
professionals analyze rumor diffusion and make refutations accordingly. Also, the findings might be valuable to new product managers since results confirmed that consumers are already exposed to rumors and leaks about the product by the various types of online news media. Therein, to more effectively shape consumer knowledge and interest towards the product, these professionals should consider publications from specialized online news outlets in their PR, marketing and Webcare strategies (DiFonzo & Bordia, 2000; Moore-Copple, Climek, & Pritchard, 2015; Sääksjärvi et al., 2017; Jong & Dückers, 2016).
Nevertheless, there are several limitations to this study. First, the case selection was limited to just one model in the product category of smartphones. Although the product choice was appropriate to study the concept of marketplace rumor circulation and the amount of rumors, future studies should explore other product categories or make comparisons between different models in one product category. Second, the selection of online news platforms was somewhat arbitrary because the platform had to consistently publish rumors and leaks of the product during the selected period. Without such criteria, a broader range of newspapers could be utilized to improve the generalizability of the results. Also, the selected online news platforms were based in either the United States or the United Kingdom; thus, there are time differences in publishing online news articles because the news cycle runs every hour. Further investigations could base the unit of analysis on an hour to create a more representative sample of online news flows.
Moreover, this study did not examine the intermedia agenda-setting effects that exist among traditional online newspapers. The results reveal that traditional online newspapers have influence among themselves in setting the news and attribute agendas. This raises the question of how traditional online newspapers publish rumors
of a product launch by following other traditional online newspapers’ news and attribute agenda. The journalists of the traditional online newspapers might perceive that their market competition is more credible than the other types of online news outlets. This idea can be linked to factors affecting rumor transmission by studying characteristics of journalists from traditional online newspapers and other types of online news outlets. Lastly, the intermedia agenda-setting relations between the sub-categories of the traditional online newspapers can be studied further.
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Appendix A
Design Specs Release Date Price
design oled september price
designs wireless this year cost
screen camera unveil expensive
screens feature launch cheap
curved headphone date $
curve charging when
size chip launched
antenna features wait
redesign sensor launch
redesigned Touch released redesigns fingerprint release edge-to-edge lightning high-end 3d steel headphones 5.8-inch battery inch handset metal ios stainless lcd jack premium hardware bluetooth glass facial display dual-lens displays usb-c home button scanner
7-inch audio edge processor edges lens 8-inch face panel chips 256gb adapter water
Appendix B Table 5
The mean scores of visibility and attribute agendas computed per day for sub-categories of the traditional online newspapers and the specialized online news outlets
Media Type Major Business Tabloid Specialized
Visibility M .59 (.93) .47 (.73) .49 (.75) 2.49 (2.16) Min. 0 0 0 0 Max. 7 4 4 10 Attributes Designs M 4.32 (8.51) 4.10 (8.81) 4.57 (8.65) 18.61 (19.54) Min. 0 0 0 0 Max. 49 49 50 89 Specifications M 7.16 (14.36) 4.80 (10.99) 7.03 (12.17) 28.23 (29.14) Min. 0 0 0 0 Max. 117 70 82 155 Release date M 2.44 (5.25) 1.58 (3.46) 2.13 (4.72) 6.85 (10.55) Min. 0 0 0 0 Max. 36 19 41 95 Price M .54 (2.19) .43 (1.52) .37 (1.36) .89 (2.14) Min. 0 0 0 0 Max. 24 16 10 12
Note. Estimated standard deviations are given within brackets.
The major online newspapers had the most articles (n = 141), followed by tabloid online newspapers (n = 117) and business online newspapers (n = 112). The mean scores of the three sub-categories are distinctively lower than the scores of the specialized online news outlets. Thus, the traditional online newspapers across the three sub-categories publish a relatively moderate amount of articles regarding rumors and leaks.
