The influence of the shrinking of lake chad on livelihood, conflict and migration

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David Dortmans, Bachelor thesis Geography, Planning and Environment (GPE), Nijmegen School of Management, Radboud University Nijmegen, June 2019

THE INFLUENCE OF THE

SHRINKING OF LAKE CHAD ON

LIVELIHOOD, CONFLICT AND

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THE INFLUENCE OF THE

SHRINKING OF LAKE CHAD ON

LIVELIHOOD, CONFLICT AND

MIGRATION

Author: David Dortmans Student number: s4799763

Supervisors: Mirjam Wajsberg & Joris Schapendonk

Bachelorthesis Geography, Planning and Environment (GPE) Nijmegen School of Management

Radboud University Nijmegen June 2019

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Preface

This bachelorthesis was written to finish the bachelor Geography, Planning and Environment at the Radboud University Nijmegen. I chose this topic because during my studying period, I was always interested in issues about conflict and migration. I chose the Lake Chad region specifically because during earlier courses of the study, I had focused on this region as well. The Lake Chad region is interesting because of the different dynamics going on here, for example it being a border region and the aspect of climate change.

I found it quite hard to write this thesis, as it was my first written essay of this length, but I have learned a lot from it and I enjoyed progressing the thesis in the process a lot.

I would like to thank a few people to conclude this preface. First of all I would like to thank Mirjam Wajsberg and Joris Schapendonk for the supervision during this thesis. There were a few times that I was stuck and did not really know how to continue, and they helped me during these periods by putting forward new ideas that helped me progress. Furthermore, they gave me loads of feedback and helped me improve my English writing. I would also like to thank the people that I interviewed, as they were very keen on helping me gather information that helped me to write this thesis. David Dortmans

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Summary

The Lake Chad Basin is situated in the middle of Africa and consists out of seven countries: Algeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan. Lake Chad itself is situated in a border region consisting out of four countries: Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. Lake Chad has been shrinking since decades, possibly having a negative influence on the livelihood of people living in this region. This is because people rely on the possibilities the Lake offers in order to be able to perform those livelihood practices. Examples of this are fishing and agriculture. Livelihood can be measured by looking at different aspects, for example: financial, social, natural, physical and human resources.

Conflict is a phenomenon that is taking place in the Lake Chad region. Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram play a very powerful role within the regional dynamics within Lake Chad. Boko Haram

performs attacks on the local population, causing fear and despair. This terrorist group causes violent conflict, not only under the people living in Lake Chad, but also in a clash between the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which has a mandate to end the insurgency of Boko Haram. The question that is important for this research is if this conflict has originated as a result of the shrinking of Lake Chad, or if there are other reasons for this emergence of conflict.

Migration is a reoccurring phenomenon within the Lake Chad region. Historically, many people living in the Lake Chad region live a nomadic lifestyle, moving from place to place to perform livelihood practices such as fishing and agriculture. Especially for agriculture, it is important to be able to make use of fertile land, which causes people living in this area to maintain this nomadic lifestyle. This research tries to answer questions such as if the shrinking of Lake Chad has an influence on people living this nomadic lifestyle, or if the shrinking of Lake Chad leads to other types of migration within this region.

The main question this research tries to answer is: ‘How has the shrinking of Lake Chad affected

people’s livelihoods and has the shrinkage led to conflict and migration?’ To be able to answer this

multi-dimensional question, a few sub-questions have been made in order to answer the main question in a systematic way. These sub-questions are:

• What is the role of mobility and migration in this region of the world? •_{What new types of migration are related to the shrinking of Lake Chad?} • How does the shrinking of the Lake affect conflict in this region?

•_{In what way do state and non-state actors have a possible influence on livelihood changes} within Lake Chad?

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In order to be able to answer these questions, interviews with experts of the Lake Chad region have been performed. Furthermore, a document-analysis was conducted. This implies that documents about migration, conflict and livelihood from different types of organizations and media about Lake Chad have been analyzed. The focus of this analysis was to see how these organizations frame conflict, migration, livelihood and development in their articles. The results of this analysis help to answer the questions posed in this research.

The livelihood of people living in the Lake Chad area is being dominated by opportunities that the Lake offers, which are mainly agricultural practices and fishing. Once the main sources of livelihood are removed or become harder to access, it can trigger migration and conflict. Because of the shrinking of Lake Chad, it can be stated that the livelihood practices that people perform in this region have become harder to maintain, thus resulting in forms of conflict and migration.

However, conflict and migration are mainly triggered by the rise of terrorist groups in the Lake Chad region. The most influential terrorist group in this region is Boko Haram. This terrorist group has caused fear amongst the population living in this region. This results from multiple violent attacks in villages, burning down houses, stealing cattle, food and money amongst other violent crimes. People are scared to perform livelihood practices as they are scared of the influence of Boko Haram. As a result of this, people decide to flee the area, resulting in a high number of refugees and internally displaced persons in the Lake Chad region.

The shrinking of Lake Chad only has a marginal role in this process, as the power of Boko Haram mainly arises from the radicalization of this terrorist group. Since 2013, the terrorist group became a rural-based insurgency in the Lake Chad region, starting in Nigeria but expanding to the other three countries involved in this region later on. This insurgency happened after Boko Haram became controller by a new leader: Abubakar Shekau, who pursued a path of violence, bombings and suicide attacks.

In this research, it has become clear that the shrinking of Lake Chad does not play a big role in phenomena such as conflict and new types of migration, but it has however played a marginal role in the process of conflict and migration emergence. That is because people have become poorer and livelihood practices were harder to maintain since the shrinking of Lake Chad pursued. As a result, people became poorer and more desperate, resulting in an increase in Boko Haram members, because people joined the terrorist group as a result of a lack of other livelihood opportunities. There is some sort of conflict that originated from the shrinking of Lake Chad, namely agricultural conflict. This is a type of conflict that occurs in the Lake Chad region because people have to ‘share’ a smaller fertile area surrounding Lake Chad than before. Also, fishing with the same amount of people in a

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smaller area causes problems as well. This form of conflict is however minor in comparison with the conflict that Boko Haram causes.

Different state and non-state actors play an important role within this region with regard to

livelihood. First of all, Boko Haram is a very influential non-state actor that influences livelihood in a negative way in this region. Furthermore, there is the Lake Chad Basin Commission, which has a mandate of ensuring that the transboundary water resources of the Lake are well managed. The Lake Chad Basin Commission is an intergovernmental organization, meaning that different countries cooperate within this organization. The Lake Chad Basin Commission seems to fail to complete the challenges they have set, which mainly comes down to counteracting the shrinking of Lake Chad. Concluding and coming back to the main question of this research: ‘How has the shrinking of Lake

Chad affected people’s livelihoods and has the shrinkage led to conflict and migration?’, it can be

concluded that the influence of the shrinking of Lake Chad on livelihood, conflict and migration is not as large as originally expected. There are other factors that have a bigger influence on these

phenomena. Mainly the presence of terrorist group Boko Haram can be attributed to the rise of new types of conflict and migration in the Lake Chad region.

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1.1.1. Shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin

This research looks at the current situation regarding conflict and migration in the context of the shrinking of Lake Chad. The Basin is situated in Central Africa, and spreads over seven countries Africa: Nigeria, Niger, Algeria, Sudan, Central Africa, Chad and Cameroon. The Lake is the center of socioeconomic and ecological activities within a transboundary zone surrounded by four countries: Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger (Watang Zieba, Yengah & Tom, 2017). The Lake and its basin have been serving as the source of valuable economic resources in the region (Watang Zieba et al, 2017). Lake Chad is very important for the people living in this area. However, over the last couple of decades, the Lake is shrinking. This development has a massive influence on the population. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the Lake Chad Basin will experience an estimated 10% reduction in annual rainfall by 2050 (Watang Zieba et al, 2017). This is such a significant decrease in rainfall that this could have substantial effects on food and water security in the region as it will be difficult to manage this reduction (Watang Zieba et al, 2017).

According to Singh, Diop & M’mayi (2006), the shrinking of Lake Chad can be explained through three main reasons. First of all, the water and land surrounding the Lake is being overused by the people living in the Lake Chad Basin, and the reason for this is mainly that agricultural practices are being executed. Furthermore, population growth in the area plays an important role. The first of these factors can be seen as a result of the second factor. Between 1960 and 1990, so within 30 years, the population in the Lake’s area has grown from 13 million to 26 million people. This in combination with the fact that agriculture in the surrounding areas of the Lake provide the livelihood in 70% of the Lake Basin, demand for water for irrigation is estimated to have quadrupled between 1983 and 1994 (Singh et al., 2006). This is a such a big increase in both the rise of population as well as the rise in agriculture, where water is needed, that the Lake is not capable of delivering enough water in the long run. The third important reason for the shrinking of the Lake is climate change. The shrinking of the Lake results in a changing accessibility and availability of resources. An example of climate change and the influence of this on the Lake is the rainfall trend in Nigeria between 1901 and 2005. Within these years, rainfall amount dropped by 81mm per year. This decline has mainly taken place in the last three decades, and is still continuing to date (Ovuyovwiroye, 2010). As a result of this rainfall decrease, the Lake is shrinking, leading to severely limited access to sustainable livelihoods for people living in the region. People living in the area become more and more dependent on institutions like the government and NGO’s because of this. Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram take advantage of this by escalating their influence, for example by attacking communities and island within the Lake Chad region, consequently utilizing fear as a recruitment technique (Hershberger, 2018). As a result of this development, people are fleeing the area because they are scared for the influence of the terrorist organization, as well as the increasing problems occurring because of climate change in the area.

Okpara (2016) mentions regular conflicts in the Lake Chad region have been reported resulting from environmental degradation and clashes between different groups within the Lake Chad Basin. The geo-political location of the Lake can be characterized by instability. It is hard for the people living within the Lake Chad Basin to cope with the effects of climate variability in the area (Okpara, 2016). This means that it is hard for people living in the Lake Chad Basin to deal with the changes and problems that the shrinking Lake causes. Because of the changing size of the Lake, the socio-politic and socio-economic environment is changing for the people living in the Lake Chad Basin. This is driving them into poverty.

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1.1.2. Environment and migration

Migration studies very often mention the natural environment as a factor influencing human mobility, but this determinant faded from migration theories over the course of the twentieth century (Piguet, Kaenzig & Guélat, 2018). An increased focus was placed upon economic drivers regarding migration. This has changed during the last couple of decades, as attention for climate change and its consequences intensified. As a result of this, the ‘climate migrant’ was researched more often and the link between environmental change and migration was explored using a common methodological framework (Piguet et al, 2018). This common methodological framework focused on the role of environmental factors in migratory patterns. A climate migrant can be described as a person who flees an area as a result of worsening conditions because of climate change. In this specific case, that means that someone would flee the Lake Chad Basin because climate change has a negative influence on the livelihood of this person for example.

Betts (2013) states that there is a lack of conceptual language to identify people who migrate and who should have an entitlement not to be returned to their country of origin. Drivers of cross-border displacement and what they mean for protection are mainly focused on particular causes of

displacement such as environmental change or climate change. An approach based on identifying particular causes risks repeating the same mistake of the refugee definition, namely focusing on the causes of displacement instead of the underlying ‘threshold of rights’ (Betts, 2013). This threshold of rights contains for example the right to live in a country safely and without having to fear violence and poverty.

Migration is something that has always taken place in the Lake Chad Basin. The main form of

migration that took place is called ‘seasonal migration’. More than half of the farmers that are active in the Lake Chad Basin follow seasonal patterns in their practice of agriculture (Okpara, 2016). Farmers that used migration within these seasonal patterns did so for economic reason (Okpara, 2016). Thus, not all migration is caused immediately by the shrinking of the Lake. It has been argued that the African Sahel has managed to sustain a higher population size than they could as sedentary populations. This means that there were more people living in the Lake Chad Basin because of the opportunities the Lake had to offer. Migratory pastoralists have managed to sustain their cattle numbers and migratory practices in balance with the vegetation (Watang Zieba, 2017). The shrinking of the Lake even offers opportunities for people living in the Lake Chad Basin. As the Lake shrinks, an area of land rich in silt is increasing around the Lake, which causes people to migrate towards these areas instead of away from them (Watang Zieba, 2017). People are finding solutions for securing livelihood practices around the Lake, and consequently, people are migrating within the area of the Lake Chad Basin, and are not fleeing the area.

Richard (2016) states that people migrating within the Lake Chad Basin can be explained through the fact that the majority of people do not want to leave their home or their community. People are attached to their home. This dominates decision-making, encouraging people to stay. Also, it encourages people to migrate locally when forced to by storms, floods etc. (Richard, 2016).

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1.2. Research objectives

The situation within the Lake Chad Basin regarding the decreasing size of the Lake has a lot of effects on the population, both positive and negative. The people living in the area are very dependent on the possibilities the Lake offers, mainly in agricultural practices. As a result, the shrinking of the Lake should be considered as a very important topic that requires attention. There are environmental transformations and therefore transformations in people’s livelihoods. The changing situation regarding the Lake Chad Basin as an environmental transformation has an effect on the livelihood of people. In order to have a balanced understanding of how environmental change affects the life of the population, this research aims to understand the coping strategies of people with regard to the change of livelihood and the role of formal and informal institutions. In order to understand the situation regarding the Lake Chad Basin, it’s necessary to understand which actors play an important role within the situation as a whole. Both state- as non-state actors will be taken into account in order to create a better understanding of the dynamics influencing the livelihood of people within the Lake Chad Basin. This way, the link between the shrinking of the basin and conflict, migration as well as displacement can be made. Therefore, the goal of this research will be to gather insights into the process of change and conflict in the Lake Chad Basin, in order to gather knowledge to contribute towards the discussion of how climate change may lead to conflict and migration as a result of a changing livelihood.

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1.3. Research area

For this research, it is important to demarcate the research area in a clear way. There is a difference between the Lake Chad Basin and the Lake Chad, as the Basin is a much larger area than the Lake Chad by itself, and is composed out of seven countries (Algeria, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan) whereas Lake Chad by itself exists out of only four countries

(Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria). The Lake Chad Basin is so big that it makes up 8% of the whole of Africa, whilst the Lake Chad Conventional Basin, which is a name often used to indicate the Lake Chad only by itself, without the Basin, is a lot smaller.

For this research, it is practical to only look at the area which is being described as the Lake Chad Conventional Basin, thus consisting of the countries Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, because the possible effects of the shrinking of the Lake should be the most visible in these areas, whereas the influence of the shrinking of the Lake might be less visible in the whole Lake Chad Basin. Therefore, the Basin won’t be named during the rest of this research, the focus will be on the Lake Chad Conventional Basin.

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1.4. Research model

For this research, theories about livelihood, conflict, migration and environmental change are going to be used in order to get a starting position within the specific field discussed before: the influence of the shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin. After these theories are gathered and specified, the research will be executed with the help of document-analysis and interviews with experts. Document-analysis will take place strategically, so that different sides within this topic will be reviewed. Therefore, I have chosen to analyze documents of experts, humanitarian organizations, national governments and local newspapers. The experts that will be interviewed have knowledge about the Lake Chad area because they have lived in the area for a long time, or because they have researched this are for a long time. This way, knowledge that is gathered will be analyzed and certain recommendations to improve the current situation regarding the Lake Chad Basin will be made.

1.5. Research questions

The main question this research will try to answer is: How has the shrinking of Lake Chad affected people’s livelihoods and has the shrinkage led to conflict and migration? To achieve an improvement within the Lake Chad Basin for the people living there, it is important to understand the way the problem originated and developed, before answering the questions how this shrinking has an influence on the population. Therefore, it is important to understand the history of the basin and the way people lived and treated the Lake, before trying to formulate solutions. In order to answer this main question, a few sub-questions will be set up.

- What is the role of mobility and migration in this region of the world? - What new types of migration are related to the shrinking of Lake Chad? - How does the shrinking of the Lake affect conflict in this region?

- In what way do state and non-state actors have a possible influence on livelihood changes within Lake Chad?

Theory livelihood Theory conflict Theory environmental change Subjects of analysis (documents + interview experts) Recommendations Theory migration

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2.1. Theoretical framework

2.1.1. Environmentally induced migration

As stated in the project framework, in order to have a balanced understanding of how environmental change affects the life of the population, we need to dive deeper into the coping strategies of people and its institutional context. The impacts of climate change are likely to affect population distribution and mobility (Tacoli, 2009). Amongst the major global environmental changes observed around the world in recent decades is the drying of lakes (World Lakes Network, 2004). Climate change plays a very important role in the shrinking of these lakes. This climate change and the consequences on people’s livelihoods may be a cause for migration within the Lake Chad Basin. In 1990, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that the greatest single impact of climate change could be on human migration (Brown, 2008). Brown (2008) states that while the scientific argument for climate change is increasingly confident and clear, it is not quite clear how the

consequences of climate change have an impact for human population distribution. There are many other environmental, social and economic factors that influence migration-trends as well, and therefore it is hard to state that climate change has a direct impact on migration in most cases, although it plays a massive role as a cause of migration in reality. Nowadays, temporary migration as a response to climate stress is a phenomenon that is already taking place in many areas, but the ability to migrate is dependent on different factors, such as the financial and social situation of people (Brown, 2008).

Environmental change contributes directly to migration by forcing people out of areas that are becoming increasingly uninhabitable (Kothari, 2013). However, despite this recent development, the relationship between environmental change and migration remains little understood (Black,

Kniveton, Skeldon, Coppard, Murata & Schmidt-Verkerk, 2008), is poorly theorized and lacks detailed empirical evidence (Stal & Warner, 2009). So, whilst the impact of climate change on the movement of population is stirring up growing concern and interest, it has also led to much controversy over the methodology regarding migration and implications of future scenarios of migration (Kothari, 2013). So however, climate change might have a huge impact on people to decide to migrate, it is difficult to substantiate this statement because other factors may play an additional role in migrating as well. The key problem with the concept of ‘environmental refugees’ is that the implicit assumption is made that a direct causal link exists between environmental change and migration (Tacoli, 2009). A case study that can support this is a research in northern Mali in the late 1990s, cited by Tacoli (2009). 80% of households within the northern part of Mali had at least one migrant member, but this high level of mobility was related to economic opportunities rather than the direct consequence of desertification and land degradation; causes of climate change. In the case of the Lake Chad Basin, it is very questionable that any of the migrants will have made their decision to migrate only because of climate change. Other factors like financial decline as a result of this climate change will play a big role as well, and this is something to take into account during this research.

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2.1.2. Environmental change and its relation with conflict

The correlation between climate change and conflict is divided into two prominent perspectives in the research of Sachs (2008). The first perspective states that climate change is worsening resource scarcities and generates new conflict and security challenges (Sachs, 2008). Events such as severe drought, with localized violence and grim humanitarian consequences that follow, contribute to a narrative that climate change is worsening resource scarcities, leading to conflict and social breakdown (Sachs, 2008). The other perspective states that it is not climate change that causes conflict, but the effectiveness of governance and institutions to respond to climate shocks and variability which will determine the likelihood of conflict and/or collaboration around resources (Lind, Ibrahim & Harris, 2010). ‘’Climate change factors do not cause violent conflict, but rather

merely affect the parameters that are sometimes important in generating violent conflict” (Lind et al,

2010, p.1).

In addition to this, it is more and more understood that conflict and environmental change are related to each other. Societies already in conflict are particularly exposed to feel the impacts of climate change (Schaar, 2018). The reason for this is that they are already vulnerable because of the existing conflict. This is an interesting insight because it states that a relation between conflict and environmental change exists. However, this is not what this research will try to prove or test. This research will try to determine if environmental change has an impact on conflict-situations in the specific example of the Lake Chad region.

2.1.3. Livelihood and its relation with the shrinking of Lake Chad

A way of measuring the effects of the shrinking Lake Chad Basin on the life of the population, is the change in people’s livelihood. Analysis of livelihood considers how families utilize and combine different aspects (financial, social, natural, physical and human) to pursue a strategy of livelihood, for example farming, in order to survive (Scoones, 2009). Livelihood is explained as comprising people, their capabilities and means of living, including food, income and assets (Chambers & Conway, 1991). In the context of a changing climate and increasing hazards, vulnerable groups are those who find it hardest to reconstruct livelihoods following disaster, and this in turn makes them more vulnerable to the effects of subsequent hazard events (Engel, 2004). In the case of Lake Chad Basin, this applies to people who are very dependent on the Lake for agricultural practices, but are not able to adapt well to the changes the shrinking of the basin brings.

Livelihood ‘best expresses the idea of individuals or groups striving to make a living, attempting to meet their various consumption and economic necessities, coping with uncertainties, responding to new opportunities, and choosing between different value positions’ (Long, 1997, p.11). Livelihood is not a matter of material well-being, but rather it also includes non-material aspects of well-being, following the holistic understanding of livelihood (De Haan & Zoomers, 2005). Besides conventional assets like livestock, land or equipment, the holistic understanding of livelihood also looks at social capital and human capital (De Haan & Zoomers, 2005). Another insight in livelihood-studies that is interesting to look at is social exclusion. Failed access to resources and the resultant poverty or social exclusion can be the result of a mechanism by which certain people exclude other people from access to resources, with the objective of maximizing their own returns (De Haan & Zoomers, 2005). In case of the Lake Chad Basin, the shrinking of the Lake could lead to certain power-relations where some people exclude other people from access to the possibilities the Lake offers. The combination of overpopulation and the shrinking of the Lake might certainly lead to these kind of power-relations.

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2.1.4. State and non-state institutions

In the present situation regarding the Lake Chad Basin, a distinction should be made between state and non-state actors. Paley (2008) states that in international affairs, nation states remain the primary actors, but there has been a fundamental change in the type of players involved in

international affairs. Increasingly international actors in the form of for example the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are making themselves felt in the international arena. This originates from the fact that these organizations are becoming even more influential on a global scale. Furthermore, transnational actors (actors that are operating across national boundaries) in the form of the media, religious movements and terrorist groups are taking a more important place in international politics as well NGO’s and transnational actors. Non-state actors like these stated before affect the strategic dimensions of the game in international interaction. If non-state actors are not taken into account whilst doing research or developing a theory, these theories and models have not identified accurate and credible correlational mechanisms that describe the real reasons why dynamics occur in the real world (Paley, 2008). The changing (and worsening) social and political conditions of people living in the Lake Chad Basin made the terrorist organizations, but mainly Boko Haram, more powerful and this process continued steadily over the last couple of years (Magrin & de Montclos, 2018). The same goes for some NGO’s that are active in the Lake Chad Basin, like

Médecins sans Frontières. These non-state actors become more powerful because the shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin has caused humanitarian problems.

The governments of the countries bordering the Lake Chad Basin might be seen as important state actors within the area. However, this is not entirely the case. The environmental monitoring network in the Lake Chad Basin was described as sparse, poorly funded, badly operated and inadequate (UN, 2018). Agricultural loss has not been noticed at all by local authorities or community organizations during the last couple of years (UN, 2018). Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon are all weak states with little control over the region’s development (Magrin & de Montclos, 2018). Tyagi (2012) defines a weak as a state that is weak in its core functions to provide security to their citizens, providing services to its citizens and having legitimacy among its people. This term is rather controversial, and there are many differing opinions in academia about its use, but this research will regard weak states as the description Tyagi (2012) has given. These governments had to compromise with local powers, especially with traditional leaders and religious authorities, to govern a spice with highly porous borders (Magrin & de Montclos, 2018). These findings show that the situation should be regarded as a combination and interaction of state and non-state actors active within the area, which is

influenced by historic and contemporary developments within the Lake Chad Basin. It is clear to say that the state doesn’t have complete prevalence in the region, and this is something very interesting to look further into.

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2.2. Conceptual model

This research will try to highlight the influence of the shrinking on the Lake Chad Basin on the change of livelihood of people living around it, as posed in the main question of the research. Furthermore, this research will try to analyze if state and non-state actors have an influence on this change of livelihood. In addition, it will be investigated if this change of livelihood has an influence on

migration. It will be interesting to find out which form of migration is used as a reason for people to move. This is interesting because as stated before in this research, migration is a phenomenon that has taken place in the Lake Chad Basin for a long time. It also is important to investigate if the change of livelihood caused by the shrinking of the Lake might be a reason for climate induced conflict.

3.1. Research-strategy

This research will focus on one specific case study, namely the Lake Chad Basin. Therefore, the research will be profound on this specific case. For this research, interviews with people who are experts on this specific area will be the main source of newly gathered information. These people are experts on migration and conflict within the Lake Chad region. Unfortunately, it is not possible to carry out this research in the Lake Chad-area, so for gathering new information, interviews with experts are necessary. These interviews are meant to give more insight on specific topics within the research such as to better understand of the migration-processes and if they are caused by historical habits or the changing size of the Lake, as well as other dynamics taking place in the Lake Chad Basin. As a result of this approach, the research will be qualitative. The information gathered through document-analysis will be non-empiric, where secondary sources will be used. The information gathered through interviews is empiric. As a result, this research will be executed as a case study of the Lake Chad Basin. Furthermore, this research will make use of document-analysis in order to understand the ongoing dynamics regarding the Lake Chad Basin, for example (existing) migration-streams and changes in livelihood. Document-analysis means that the underlying messages of documents will be looked upon, and conclusions about this will be drawn. For example, it is a possible finding if an organization focusing on migration will focus on migration in the document as well. Documents that have been reviewed are for example documents written by US-AID, Oxfam Novib and a Nigerian newspaper.

3.1.1. Societal and scientific relevance

This research is relevant in a societal and scientific way because first of all climate change and the effects of this are occurring more and more around the world. The shrinking of Lake Chad is a good

Shrinking of the Lake

Chad Basin

Climate Change Overpopulation Overuse of land Migration Change of livelihood Influence of state and

non-state actors

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example of this climate change and its effects. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change is set to have a seriously large impact on agriculture in the Sahel zone (Stache, 2019). Therefore, doing research on climate change and the influence of this climate change on livelihood, conflict and migration could be applied to more regions of the world than only the Lake Chad region. In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that the greatest single impact of climate change could be on human migration (Brown, 2008). It will be scientifically relevant to research if this statement still applies thirty years later.

Furthermore, this research contains societal relevance because a crisis is going on in the Lake Chad region. Many people are internally displaced and need to flee the area. Figures from US AID show that more than 1 million children in Nigeria aged five years and younger are experiencing acute malnutrition (US-AID, 2019). The population living in the Lake Chad region is suffering, many people are being negatively influenced by the crisis in this region. Moreover, Oxfam Novib (2016) states that there has been an upsurge in violence in some areas in the Lake Chad Basin, which is making the situation for the local population in the area even worse. Because of all these problems currently occurring in the Lake Chad region, it can be stated that this research has societal relevance.

3.2. Research-material

To execute this research, it is very important to understand the processes that are taking place in the Lake Chad Basin regarding livelihood, conflict and migration and processes that have taken place in the past regarding these subjects to be able to answer the main question: How has the shrinking of Lake Chad affected people’s livelihoods and has the shrinkage led to conflict and migration? In order to get a better understanding of the way the shrinking of the Lake affects people’s livelihoods, it is interesting to seek information that explains why people behave and ‘survive’ in a different way, when the livelihood might be worsening and conflict and migration might appear. Important sources for obtaining this goal of gathering information about these subjects are mainly interviewing experts and doing document-analysis. These documents will be analyzed by comparing them to other documents and gathering important information about the main subjects of this research. This process will be elaborated more in parts 3.3. and 3.4.

The information obtained by interviewing experts will be summarized and compared to each other. Interviews will be transcribed and then coded, and afterwards, through these codes, what is said during the interviews can be analyzed. The interviews will have different subjects, such as the changing of livelihood caused by the shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin, and this can be combined with interviews about how these (possible) changes in livelihood might lead to conflict and migration. In addition, interviews with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that are active in the area of the Lake Chad Basin might be able to give unique insights in the processes that are taking place regarding the topics stated above. In this process, document-analysis will be executed in order to get a better understanding of the processes regarding these topics in the Lake Chad Basin, for example how changes in livelihood were handled in the past. Written reports will also play an important role within this research. These reports can help picture how the situation in the Lake Chad Basin has developed, and can therefore help answering the main questions regarding this research, such as the main question: How has the shrinking of Lake Chad affected people’s livelihoods and has the

shrinkage led to conflict and migration?.

3.3. Performed interviews

For this research, three interviews have been performed with different kind of experts of the Lake Chad area. Those interviews help in understanding the situation in the Lake Chad region better,

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whilst also helping to gather new insights for this research. I would like to thank these people for their cooperation, as they really helped conducting this research.

First of all, an interview with Dr. Uche Okpara was performed. Dr. Okpara is an environment, development and security researcher who has work for the University of Leeds among others. Dr. Okpara has written different essays about the Lake Chad area. The interview with Dr. Okpara was conducted via Skype, and English was the language spoken. The interview was recorded and transcribed and lasted for approximately 45 minutes.

Secondly, I interviewed Dr. Lotje de Vries who is a social anthropologist working on local dynamics of (in)security, state-society relations in (post-)conflict settings and transnational security governance in peripheral areas. She focusses mainly on South Sudan and the Central African Republic. These countries are close to the Lake Chad region, and the dynamics in those countries are kind of

corresponding with the dynamics in the Lake Chad region. The interview took place in Wageningen, was recorded and transcribed, and lasted for about an hour. The language spoken in this interview was Dutch.

The last interview was conducted with Dr. Alassane Dembele. He is a peacebuilding project officer of the International Office of Migration in Chad. Dr. Dembele works in N’Djamena in Chad, and has a lot of expertise regarding refugees and refugee-camps in Chad. Therefore, he could help me in

understanding the migration dynamics taking place in the Lake Chad region, which helped answering the research question: What new types of migration are related to the shrinking of Lake Chad? He also helped getting me insights that helped answer the other research questions. The interview with Dr. Dembele was conducted via Skype, and lasted for about 45 minutes. This interview was also recorded and transcribed.

The interviews help to reach the goal of this research, which is to gather insights into the process of change and conflict in the Lake Chad Basin, in order to gather knowledge to contribute towards the discussion how climate change may lead to conflict and migration as a result of a changing livelihood.

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4.1. Document-analysis

A document-analysis will be executed in this research in order to help to answer the research-questions. For this document-analysis, documents written by different organizations will be analyzed such as international organizations, governmental organizations, local newspapers and research-documents, in order to understand the way those organizations assess the current situation regarding the Lake Chad area. The aim of this document-analysis is to research if different types of organizations frame the current mechanics in the area in a different way. For the analysis,

Furthermore, there will be three main subject areas regarding those documents, namely how they look into migration, conflict as well as livelihood and development in the Lake Chad area. The main aim is to research if those different types of organizations named before frame the situation

regarding migration, conflict as well as livelihood and development in different ways, and what kind of information does resemble in those documents. In the table underneath, the organizations of which documents will be researched are named.

Type of organization Authoring organization International organizations MSF, Oxfam Novib, NRC

State (governments f.e.) US AID, Swedish + Dutch Governments Local (newsarticles) Today.ng

Academic research - Okpara et al. - Mahmood & Ani

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4.1.1. US AID

Migration Conflict Livelihood &

Development US AID, 2019 Migration is defined by US

AID as a phenomenon that resulted from violence in the Lake Chad Basin. An example of this is an attack by an armed opposition group at the beginning of 2019, resulting in 35,000 people to flee from Nigeria (where the attack took place) to Cameroon. It is notable that the worsening livelihood situation is not used as a reason that people are migrating according to US AID. The main reason of displacement and

migration is violence. It is also stated that violence in the area is the main reason that hindered agricultural production, livelihoods and cross-border trade. The shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin is not taken into account.

The escalating conflict has significantly reduced humanitarian operational capacity in the Lake Chad Basin. More than 260 relief workers were withdrawn from the area due to insecurity. In this case the relief workers who were withdrawn were working for humanitarian agencies. This shows the conflict in the Lake Chad Basin, and in this case in the Nigerian part of the Basin, is still a big problem.

This goes not only for local aid workers but also for the local population, as they are in need of the help of these aid workers who are forced to leave the area. As quoted from an US AID-document: ‘Years of conflict perpetuated by Boko Haram (…) have triggered a humanitarian crisis in Nigeria and surrounding countries in the Lake Chad Basin (…) (p.5). Again, it is notable that the shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin is named as a reason for conflict. The terroristic group is mainly named as the instigator of conflict.

Development and Livelihood mechanics are being analyzed by US AID. Acute food insecurity is being described as the main problem. US AID makes use of a ranking system called IPC (Integrated Phase Classification). This ranking determines how bad the current situation is according to US AID. The acute food insecurity is now ranked as IPC 4, which is Emergency level. Malnutrition is the main form of acute food insecurity. Figures from US AID show that more than 1 million children in Nigeria aged five years and younger are experiencing acute malnutrition. The worsening livelihood mechanics are being described as the result of conflict in the area.

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4.1.2. Dutch & Swedish Governments

Migration Conflict Livelihood & Development Dutch Government, (van Oosterom, 2018) & Swedish Government (Schaar, 2018) In the statements of the Dutch and the Swedish Governments, migration is not being named once. This is a big

difference with US AID, where migration is being named very often.

The Dutch Government states that indirectly conflict is the result of a lack of socio-economic opportunities. The population of the Lake Chad Basin is vulnerable to recruitment by violent extremists because of a lack of socio-economic opportunities. So again, the root causes (the original instigators of the shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin) are being highlighted.

The Swedish Government states that climate change has negative impacts on the stability and security of the Lake Chad Basin region. Climate change contributes to polarization and conflict, for example through the disruption of livelihoods. The shrinking of the Lake is not explicitly named in the document.

It is also stated that all relevant stakeholders, also at the local level, should be included in a dialogue in order to try and prevent further conflict to happen.

In contrast to US AID, both the Swedish as the Dutch

Government focus on root causes of the conflict emerging in the Lake Chad Basin. The three root causes that are being named by the Dutch Government are:

- Water and climate change

- Socio-economic challenges

- Lack of inclusion of women.

For example, water crisis and climate change have

worsened possibilities for livelihood practices in the Lake Chad Basin. The lack of pre-emptive actions to prevent water crisis to happen also are being taken into account regarding the changing livelihood mechanics in the region.

Both the Dutch as the Swedish government focus on the role of women within the Lake Chad Basin Crisis. It is stated that women’s full and equal representation and

participation is critical in stabilization efforts.

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4.1.3. MSF

Migration Conflict Livelihood & Development Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), 2019 MSF analyses that migration is a result of violence in the Lake Chad Basin region. According to MSF, many of the displaced persons are finding refuge in areas that are also already suffering from poverty and food insecurity. These are areas also surrounding the Lake Chad Basin, so for example people from Nigeria are fleeing to Niger. Furthermore, the areas that people are migrating to (often forced), have harsh living conditions. Needs for clean water, food, clean shelter for example are insufficiently met.

Conflict is being described by MSF as a clash between military forces and non-state armed groups in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad Republic and Niger. MSF doesn’t go into detail as to who these groups are and what thrives them to act this way. A significant increase in the number of incidents and attacks, as well as military operations against armed groups, have taken place during the last couple of years. These incidents and attacks are often between terrorist groups like Boko Haram and military forces. Also, Boko Haram is attacking the local population. Boko Haram is mainly operating in Nigeria, but the last few years the influence of Boko Haram has increased towards the other countries bordering the Lake Chad Basin as well. Again, the reason for the uprising violence is not being described. Climate change and the shrinking of the Lake are consequently not being named as possible conflict-inducers.

Development and livelihood insecurities are described by MSF mainly through the conclusion that people are in need of food, safe drinking water and healthcare. In this rapport, nothing is being said about how the shrinking of the Lake in combination with climate change might have an influence on the livelihood of the people living in the Lake Chad Basin. According to MSF, the living conditions for internally displaced persons in the Lake Chad area have

significantly improved which has led to the withdrawing of the MSF-team from the Lake Chad Basin.

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4.1.4. Oxfam Novib

Migration Conflict Livelihood & Development Oxfam

Novib, 2016 This report of Oxfam Novib show that migration is a result of conflict in the Lake Chad Basin-area. Oxfam Novib is describing the current situation in the Lake Chad Basin as worsening, stating that the number of displaced people has tripled in the worst-affected areas over the last two years.

Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin area is being described as a clash between Boko Haram and the resulting counter-insurgency operations. It is notable to see that Oxfam Novib states that there has been an upsurge in violence in some areas in the Lake Chad Basin, whereas MSF stated that the living conditions for internally displaced persons has significantly improved. On this point, both NGO’s don’t agree with each other.

Oxfam Novib states that violence and displacement are taking a toll on people’s livelihoods. The insecurity regarding livelihood

practices existing in the area is preventing people from fishing and farming. Again, in the reports almost nothing is said about the theory that root causes of the problem such as climate change and the resulting shrinking of the Lake are the main factors that influence livelihood. Poor water management and ways to improve this are not named as well. The main focus of the reports is laid on the food crisis and the malnutrition of people.

4.1.5. Norwegian Refugee Council

Migration Conflict Livelihood & Development Norwegian

Refugee Council (Skretteberg, 2018)

It is said in the article that the conflict between Boko Haram and Nigerian security forces have forced millions to flee their homes and as a result caused massive civilian suffering.

The NRC states that the Lake Chad region, together with other countries in the Sahel, topped their list of neglected displacement crises.

Conflict in the Lake Chad area is described by NRC as a conflict between Boko Haram and Nigeria security forces. The shrinking of the Lake is caused by a lack of rain, but also the development of modern irrigation systems.

The article states that millions of people are in need of both food and protection. Violence and fighting have destroyed food crops, infrastructure and economies, with has resulted in food insecurity for five million people. Furthermore, it is stated that a new protracted and deadlocked conflict in Africa is being risked by the current situation. The emergence of several terrorist groups and organized crime are two of the possible instigators for this deadlocked conflict.

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4.1.6. Researchers: Okpara et al.

Migration Conflict Livelihood & Development Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: Unravelling the mechanics, contexts and responses (Okpara, Stringer & Dougill, 2016).

The article doesn’t really focus on migration, but an interesting quote from the article is that: ‘Two kinds of people exist around the Small Lake Chad, those who take advantage of the dried Lake by seeking permission to cultivate the ‘new’ land areas and those who follow the Lake to new territories as it contracts.’ This quote shows that there are people who are actually profiting from the shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin as well as people who are suffering from it, which is an interesting insight.

A new approach to development of conflict in the Lake Chad Basin is being brought forward in this article, namely that the increase of population has an influence on conflict as well.

As can be seen in figure 2, which can be found in the article, the number of conflict-situations within the Lake Chad Basin has risen a lot during the last couple of years. In the article it is described that most of these conflicts are a result of environmental degradation, clashes amongst different ethnic groups and between locals and security officials. It is interesting to see that in the article conflict is not being described only as a clash between terrorist groups and military forces, but names other causes as well.

The main concern regarding livelihood according to the article is that people are not receiving enough income to be able to cover important household expenditures, such as water, food, housing and clothing. The shrinking of the Lake is the main reason for this, according to

informants being interviewed for this article.

People try to cope with this negative change of livelihood by incorporating different strategies, such as

intensification/extensification in order to be able to control the water of the shrinking Lake in a better way. In order to handle these changes in livelihood practices, the article states that developmental assistance for the people living in the Lake Chad Basin is necessary. An example of this is assistance that targets the low infrastructure profile of the region.

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4.1.7. Researchers: Mahmood & Ani

Migration Conflict Livelihood & Development Mahmood &

Ani, (2018). An interesting insight from this article is that research has

discovered that migration patterns show that barely any people are fleeing towards Libya and Europe. This means that most people who are fleeing areas within the Lake Chad Basin are moving towards other locations close-by.

According to this article, some civilians living in the Lake Chad Basin state that they were caught between supporting the government and

allegiance to the militants such as Boko Haram. Also, there is cooperation going on between Boko Haram and ISIS. Within these terrorist groups, there are disagreements which breaks these groups up into even more smaller groups.

Also, militant groups offer money to young people in return for joining them. Militant groups make use of the conflict between the government and these militant groups in order to gather more people, by reversing fines and arbitrary arrests by government

commanders.

It is also said in this article that militant groups such as Boko Haram seize food items under the threat of force. Furthermore, it is said that Boko Haram does not kill people in villages anymore, but when you meet them in the bush, they will kill you because they think you are

informants disguised to get information for the

government. This is not a direct quote from a villager, but is described in the document. As a result of this, people are unable to farm because for that they need to get into the bush. This way livelihood practices are being disturbed by terrorist groups.

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4.1.8. Nigerian Newspaper: Today.ng

Migration Conflict Livelihood &

Development Umoren, B.,

Adeoye, O., (Today.ng), 2019

It is striking to see that this newspaper doesn’t write a lot about displacement and migration in the Lake Chad Basin area. There are some news-articles that write about financial help in order to be able to tackle new cases of displacement in the area. Displacement and migration do not however get a lot of attention in the newspaper.

The newspaper reports quite often that Boko Haram fighters have been killed by troops of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MJFT). Attacks by Boko Haram on the local population living in the surrounding areas of the Lake Chad Basin are not being mentioned. The newspaper even mentioned a quote from a Brigadier General in the area: ‘Like we continue to say, it is the last kick of the dying horse for the few of them that are marauding but the good thing is we are following the, smoking them in their enclaves telling them there’s no hiding place’ (Brigadier General Biu, today.ng, 2019). This seems to be a sort of propaganda, because other newspapers write that Boko Haram has performed multiple deadly attacks during the last couple of months. The newspaper itself does however write quite a lot about Boko Haram attacks as well, with people dying from these attacks.

The newspaper has reported a few times during the last couple of months that the United Nations has given

attention to the shrinking of Lake Chad, raising 50 billion American Dollars in order to recharge the Lake. The plan is to create an inter-basin water transfer from Central Africa towards Lake Chad. Furthermore, articles state that the President of Nigeria wants to diversify the economy together with making it more inclusive. Articles state that the focus will be laid on the

development of the ICT-sector in the region for example.

Information in this framework is gathered from two specific news-articles on Today.ng:

- Umoren, B., (31-03-2019). Troops kill five Boko Haram terrorists in Borno. Retrieved on 13-05-2019, from: https://www.today.ng/news/nigeria/troops-kill-boko-haram-terrorists-borno-208621

- Adeoye, O., (20-04-2019). President Buhari, UN scribe to raise $50 billion to recharge Lake Chad. Retrieved on 13-05-2019, from: https://www.today.ng/news/nigeria/president-buhari-scribe-raise-50-billion-recharge-Lake-chad-2

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4.2. Findings from document-analysis

In the upcoming part of the thesis, the documents that will be analyzed and compared to each other. This analysis will be conducted using three different points of thematic areas: migration, conflict and livelihood dynamics. The analyzed documents were produced by different organizations, such as governmental entities from ‘the Global North’- such as US Aid and the Swedish and Dutch

governments, but also from local newspapers active in Nigeria and humanitarian aid organizations active within the Lake Chad Basin. It will be interesting to see how these different organizations look towards different aspects that are current topics in the Lake Chad area: Migration, conflict and livelihood mechanics.

4.2.1. Findings document-analysis on migration

Almost all documents that have been analyzed describe migration in the Lake Chad Basin as a phenomenon that resulted from the violence that is occurring in the area. This violence is mainly powered by the presence of Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region. The analyzed documents during that are written by academic experts on the Lake Chad area (Okpara, 2016, Mahmood & Ani, 2018) on the Lake Chad Basin do not focus on migration, but more on the livelihood mechanics in the area. However, some types of migration can be seen as livelihood practice in the region since decades, as people need to migrate in order to be able to use fertile land for example. The reason that the academic experts do not really focus on migration might be because it is a phenomenon that has taken place for a long time in the Lake Chad Basin, even before conflict and changing livelihood mechanics occurred. These experts do however focus more on the effects of the shrinking of Lake Chad, such that it might not only be negative for the population, but also offers chances to cultivate new land areas which occur due to the shrinking of the Lake (Okpara, 2016). People make use of these new land areas which are often fertile but in order to do so they need to move to these areas. This is also a form of migration. This form of migration is however not mentioned a lot in those articles.

The reason for migration to be linked mostly to conflict in this area instead of environmental factors might possibly be because conflict is easier to measure and see whilst environmental factors are processes that emerge over longer time, and are often less visible. Furthermore, conflict could be the result of environmental change in the area. The shrinking of the Lake might have led to fewer

possibilities for people in the Lake Chad area which caused a worsening livelihood situation, resulting in rebellion and conflict (Swedish Government, 2018). Conflict is easier to spot as a trigger for

migration than environmental change, and this way institutions and organizations could frame the problem as the result of conflict instead of environmental change. This is because conflict situations often contain violence and destruction and this is easier visible than the results of climate change as migration triggers, which have more effects on the long run.

In contrast to those experts that have been mentioned before, humanitarian aid organizations focus a lot more on migration in their articles (see MSF 2019 & Oxfam Novib 2016). This is understandable in a way, because the focus of these humanitarian aid organizations such as Oxfam Novib and MSF is on helping people that are being displaced in the area. These organizations focus on the big numbers of displaced people living in the area many times in their articles. Quoting MSF: “Across Nigeria,

Cameroon, Chad and Niger, violence has uprooted more than 2.3 million people from their homes. Some 1.7 million people are internally displaced within Nigeria, while hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees can be found in Cameroon, Niger and Chad” (MSF,

2019). This focus may be the case because these organizations are partly dependent on donations in order to be able to perform their work, and mentioning the big number of people that are in need of

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help might help find these donations. These humanitarian aid organizations describe the large amount of displaced people as a result of conflict in the area. Quoting Oxfam Novib (2019): “The conflict has caused widespread destruction of vital infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, roads, markets and farmland. Across the region, people are on the move trying to escape threats to their lives, liberty and other human rights in search of safety and protection” (Oxfam Novib, 2019, p.3) The shrinking of the Lake Chad is not being mentioned directly as a cause of migration by these

organizations. Quoting Dr. de Vries (2019), a social anthropologist working on local dynamics of (in)security, state-society relations in (post)conflict settings and transnational security governance in peripheral areas states: “There are organizations that are dependent on government agencies. Other

organizations have interest in emphasizing the seriousness of the situation in order to be able to keep on receiving money from donations. It is cruel how it works, but that is how it is” (Dr. de Vries,

06-05-2019). This is a weighty statement, but it implicates that humanitarian aid organizations are dependent on money to be able to maintain their work in these areas. All in all, it is still the population that profits from the presence of humanitarian aid organizations, because they have easier access to food and water because of this for example.

The statements in the US-AID document resemble a lot of statements made by the humanitarian aid organizations regarding displacement in the Lake Chad area. Both US-AID (2019) and Oxfam Novib (2016) state that displacement is a serious issue and name the high number of people who suffer from this displacement. US-AID is more of a governmental organization than purely a humanitarian aid organization, because the organization is supported by the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Agency for International Development (US AID, 2019). In their report, US-AID (2019) is however a lot more specific in bringing forward concrete figures of displaced people, such as the example of the displacement of 35,000 people which fled from Nigeria to Cameroon after an attack by armed opposition. In line with the humanitarian aid organizations, US-AID does not mention the possible worsening livelihood situation as a result of the shrinking Lake as a reason for people to migrate and get displaced.

There is a significant difference to spot in the articles of US-AID, Oxfam Novib and MSF in comparison with those of the Dutch- and Swedish governments. In these latter documents, migration is not being mentioned once. These documents focus more on conflict and the negative change on livelihood and development these conflicts have on the population. It is however striking that migration and

displacement is not being named once at all, because of the big amount of refugee camps and humanitarian aid within the Lake Chad area. To give an example: UNHCR (2019) shows statistics that in total, more than 2.5 million people are being displaced in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger. These statistics only apply to IDP’s in the Lake Chad Basin area, so all the IPD’s mentioned in this figure are being displaced as a result of problems in the Lake Chad area.

Figure 3: Internally Displaced Persons by country. (UNHCR, 2019)

The local newspaper (today.ng) only mentions statements from organizations like UNHCR that send money towards the Lake Chad area in order to help displaced people, but does not mention for example where streams of refugees and displaced people are going to. It is important to mention

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that this Nigerian newspaper (today.ng) is not located in the Lake Chad Basin area itself. This is important to note this because the newspaper not being situated in the Lake Chad Basin area itself might mean that the sources of this newspaper are not as reliable as when this would have been the case.

According to all of the documents mentioned above, it could be stated that the shrinking of the Lake Chad has not had a direct influence on migration in the area, as those documents state that conflict is the main instigator of this migration. However, it could be the case that indirectly environmental change has led to these conflicts, and this way environmental change is indirectly leading to

migration and displacement in the Lake Chad area. Also, a combination between those two factors is a possibility. During our interview, De Vries states that people who flee the area mostly flee to surrounding areas where family is living. Thus, they do not necessarily escape the whole conflict, as there might be conflict in the areas these people are fleeing to. However, people choose to still flee to these areas as the know the area, speak the language and have personal connections.

Furthermore, people often do not have a lot of money and as a consequence are not able to flee to places further away. There are lots of refugee camps funded by humanitarian aid organizations close-by to the Lake Chad area, and moving further away might mean that these kind of refugee camps where food, water and shelter is distributed are not available anymore. (De Vries, personal communication, 06-05-2019).

4.2.2. Findings document-analysis on conflict

There are different types of conflicts going on in the Lake Chad region, mainly differing from violent conflict between terrorist groups and the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) and conflict about agriculture following the discussion of who owns what property. The conflict described in the

documents that have been analyzed is very much focused on the violent conflict that terrorist groups have caused in the Lake Chad region. It is interesting to see that the conflict as a result of land-ownership are not being described in those documents. This could possibly because for example humanitarian aid organizations focus more on conflict emerged by terrorist groups as it might catch their attention more.

Most of the documents that have been analyzed describe conflict in the area as a clash between terrorist groups and military forces. These military forces are being brought together by the governments of the surrounding countries of Lake Chad. Figures in these documents show that the number of conflict-situation in the area has risen a lot during the last couple of years, as can be seen in Figure 1 for example. This can be explained due to the fact that the terrorist group Boko Haram has become more radical since 2011 and this has caused the organization to become more aggressive in the Lake Chad area (Mahmood & Ani, 2018). Next to this radicalization, Dr. Dembele states that Boko Haram has also increased in size, more people have joined the organization. “The

educational system is not developed, so it is not like people living in the area have the required level to pursue their studies all the way… The majority of the youth has nothing to do. You grow up there, it is not like every man and woman wants to do fishing, maybe they have other aspirations. What you have is, Boko Haram infiltrates the community, they say: ‘‘You can go to Nigeria, you can have a gun, you can have resources’, and so on. People sometimes join them without thinking so much about the effects of their actions, they just want to do something”. (Dembele, personal communication,

10-05-2019).

Furthermore, it is interesting to see that only a few of these organizations state that climate change has been a trigger for conflict to emerge in the area. From the documents that have been analyzed in this research, only the Swedish (2018) and Dutch (2018) governments state this. The Swedish

The influence of the shrinking of lake chad on livelihood, conflict and migration

THE INFLUENCE OF THE

SHRINKING OF LAKE CHAD ON

LIVELIHOOD, CONFLICT AND

THE INFLUENCE OF THE

SHRINKING OF LAKE CHAD ON

LIVELIHOOD, CONFLICT AND

MIGRATION

Preface

Summary

Table of Contents

1.1.1.

Shrinking of the Lake Chad Basin

1.1.2. Environment and migration

1.2. Research objectives

1.3. Research area

1.4. Research model

1.5. Research questions

2.1. Theoretical framework

2.1.1. Environmentally induced migration

2.1.2.

Environmental change and its relation with conflict

2.1.3. Livelihood and its relation with the shrinking of Lake Chad

2.1.4.

State and non-state institutions

2.2. Conceptual model

3.1. Research-strategy

3.1.1. Societal and scientific relevance

Shrinking of the Lake

Chad Basin

3.2. Research-material

3.3. Performed interviews

4.1. Document-analysis

4.1.1. US AID

4.1.2. Dutch & Swedish Governments

4.1.3. MSF

4.1.4. Oxfam Novib

4.1.5. Norwegian Refugee Council

4.1.6. Researchers: Okpara et al.

4.1.7. Researchers: Mahmood & Ani

4.1.8. Nigerian Newspaper: Today.ng

4.2. Findings from document-analysis

4.2.1. Findings document-analysis on migration

4.2.2. Findings document-analysis on conflict