University of Groningen
Systems analysis of the bioeconomy as a path towards low carbon development in Colombia Younis, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed; Benders, Reinerus; Lap, Tjerk; Delgado, Ricardo; Miguel Gonzalez-Salazar, Miguel ; Cadena, Angela; Faaij, André
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10.13140/RG.2.2.27467.21287
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Younis, A. I. M., Benders, R., Lap, T., Delgado, R., Miguel Gonzalez-Salazar, M., Cadena, A., & Faaij, A. (2020). Systems analysis of the bioeconomy as a path towards low carbon development in Colombia. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27467.21287
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Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society
Systems analysis of the bioeconomy as a path towards low carbon development in Colombia
Ahmed Younis
1, René Benders
1, Ricardo Delgado
2, Tjerk Lap
1, Miguel Gonzalez-Salazar
3, Angela Cadena
2, André Faaij
1,41) Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands; 2) Modeling and analysis group: Energy-Environment-Economy, School of Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Bogota, Colombia; 3) Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; 4) TNO Energy Transition, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Introduction
Regional climate assessments have reported a variable contribu-tion of biomass to the low carbon development of the Colombian economy (Calderón et al. 2016). National bioenergy roadmaps have been mostly qualitative, with few exceptions (e.g. Gonzalez -Salazar et al. (2016)). Neither of these approaches could thor-oughly address the complexity of the bio-based economy (BBE); in the wider context of energy and chemicals supply and emis-sion mitigation. Recent systems analyses of the BBE (e.g. Lap et al. (2019)) lack a representation of palm oil value chains; which are relevant for Colombia.
Contact:
Ahmed Younis, PhD student, a.i.m.younis@rug.nl
Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), University of Groningen
This research is part of the bilateral program BBE Colombia – NL (Full name: “Towards a long-term science and innovation collaboration between Colombia and the Netherlands in Biomass Valorisation”). The research is funded by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO). Reference number TF13COPP7B.
Research Objective
Explore the potential role biomass can play in the
supply of energy and chemicals and emission mitigation in Colombia to 2050
Assess the competitiveness of advanced value chains;
including Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), renewable jet fuels (RJF) and bio-chemicals.
Methodology
We use TIMES techno-economic optimization model. We ob-serve the deployment of biomass in different sectors in compe-tition with other value chains (fossil, other renewables, CCS; Figures 1 and 2). We use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario analysis framework to analyze technology devel-opment and mitigation policy scenarios (SSP1 vs. SSP3) and land availability scenarios for biomass (BioHi vs. BioLo).
Main findings
Biomass can play an important yet variable role in Colombia (Figure 3). Novel transport biofuels and biochemicals can be competitive, even without mitigation policy. High technological learning can shift biomass from industrial heat to electricity.
Figure 1: Overview of the reference energy system (Younis et al. under review)
Insights into deep decarbonization (SSP1 ~1.7 Gt-CO2-eq. cumulative avoided emissions 2015-2050):
•
The availability of (land for) biomass (~2.6 Mha) can reduce the annual energy system cost by up to 11 billion $/y . Alter-natively, substantial investments in power infrastructure and electric mobility will be required (Figure 4).•
BECCS technologies can contribute up to 24-29% of the cumulative avoid ed emissions (Younis et al. under review).Figure 4: Annual energy system cost by 2050
Future research
•
Implications of land use for the biomass potential: Regional distribution of energy crops and residues and supply costs.•
Implications of the high penetration of intermittent renewa-ble energy sources for the power system stability.References:
Calderón et al. (2016). Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement
targets. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.05.010.
Gonzalez-Salazar et al. (2016). A general modeling framework to evaluate energy, economy, land-use and GHG emissions nexus for bioenergy exploitation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.039.
Lap et al. (2019). Pathways for a Brazilian biobased economy: towards optimal utilization of biomass. https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1978
Younis, A., Benders, R., Delgado, D., Lap, T., Gonzalez-Salazar, M., Cadena, A., & Faaij, A. (under review). System analysis of the bio-based economy in Colombia: A bottom-up energy system model and scenario analysis.
Figure 2: Overview of bio-based conversion technologies (Younis et al. under review)
Figure 3: An overview of biomass sources (a) and applications (b) in 2015 & 2050 scenarios
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