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The faces of environmental

change

STUDYING ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRATION AMONG

ASYLUM SEEKERS IN FINLAND

T.M.C. Lahnalahti

s2031191

Master thesis | MSc Crisis and Security Management

Leiden University | Spring 2019 | Word count: 22 568

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Abstract

Environmental migration is an emergent field of research, which has gained ground in international policy debates and security imperatives. It combines the fields of migration, (human) security, international law, geography, and environmental studies, tracing the migration decision to be a conscious choice, yet influenced subconsciously by environmental events.

This work discusses environmental migration with the Black et al. (2011) established theoretical framework of environmental events as an influencer to other migration motivations. It contextualises the phenomenon to the contemporary Finnish setting, where primary data was gathered with the use of a questionnaire among asylum seekers during spring 2019. The exceptionality of environment as a factor influencing migration and its interconnected nature to many other drivers is demonstrated in the context of present asylum seekers who are seeking protection in Finland under other grounds. Considering the theory and the data, 62% of the respondents’ migration decision was affected by environmental variables. As the case is with migrants at large, predominantly people with resources and networks are able to migrate, renouncing the most vulnerable. In light of worsening environmental conditions globally, number of environmental migrants and vulnerable people left stranded by environmental events is likely to rise. Despite widespread knowledge of environmental changes and their effects on migration, international protection mechanisms are lacking to safeguard people impacted by environmental events.

Keywords: migration, environmental change, security studies, asylum seekers, international protection, human agency, climate change adaptation, mitigation.

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Acknowledgements

Despite having truly enjoyed the writing process and getting to explore the captivating topic, I could not have done it alone.

I would like to thank the Finnish Red Cross for allowing me to access the asylum centre facilities, and the centre staff for insights into daily life in the centres. Abdillahi, Ahmed, Marie, Mahmoud, and Masoud; thank you for acting as the gatekeepers to your beautiful languages outside my own reach. Mahadsanid, shukran, merci, and mamnoon!

Additionally, I am grateful for the support of Dr. van Buuren in his role as the Crisis and Security Management Programme Director, and my internship supervisor for his unwavering positive insights and inclusive mindset throughout my time in Leiden University. Moreover, I am much obliged to Dr. Aloyo as my thesis supervisor for his reflections and contributions to the piece in the last months.

Thank you meisjes for your daily presence, laughter and coffees. I am tremendously happy having gotten such a true balance between support and distraction from you during the process and beyond. Thank you Heljä, Helmer and Marie for your graduate observations on the final draft. Yannik, thank you. Theresa, thank you.

Appreciative to my family’s endurance with my relentless energy, and the many mishaps on the way, four years of university is coming to its end. Thank you for your love, support and unyielding understanding. Kiitos.

I would like to dedicate this piece to everyone, who seek change towards a more just, inclusive, peaceful, and sustainable world.

I hope you find it an interesting read,

Charlotta

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Table of contents

Abstract ... 1 Acknowledgements ... 2 Abbreviations ... 5 Chapter I - Introduction ... 6 1.1 Introduction... 6 1.2 Problem ... 10 1.3 Research question ... 13 1.4 Relevance ...14 1.5 Chapter summary ... 17 Chapter II - Theory... 18

2.1 Key concepts, conceptualisation ... 18

2.1.1 Refugees, the displaced and migrants ...18

2.1.2 Climate change, environmental change ... 20

2.2 Theorising environmental migration ... 21

2.3 The theoretical framework ... 24

2.4 Chapter summary ... 26

Chapter III – Body of knowledge ... 27

3.1 Environmental change ... 27

3.2 Migration studies ... 29

3.3 Environmental migration ... 31

3.4 Adjacent topics... 34

3.4.1 Human and environmental security ... 34

3.4.2 Climate-conflict linkages ... 35

3.4.3 Protection mechanisms ... 36

3.4.4 Humanitarian practices ... 39

3.5 Chapter summary ... 40

Chapter IV – Research Design ...41

4.1 Research focus and the survey method ...41

4.2 Variables ... 43

4.2.1 Demographic variables ... 43

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4.3 Instruments and statistical treatment ... 47

4.4 Sampling ... 47

4.5 Procedure ... 49

4.6 Ethical considerations, limitations ... 50

4.7 Chapter summary ... 52

Chapter V – Analysis ... 53

5.1 Survey responses ... 53

5.1.1 Demographic variables ... 53

5.1.2 Environmental variables ... 57

5.2 The theoretical approach ... 59

5.2.1 Political drivers ... 59 5.2.2 Economic drivers ... 60 5.2.3 Social drivers ... 61 5.2.4 Demographic drivers ... 62 5.2.5 Environmental drivers ... 62 5.3 Chapter summary ... 67 Chapter VI - Discussion ... 68 6.1 Contextualising responses ...69

6.1.1 Environmental variables and human induced environmental hazards ...69

6.1.2 Environmental variables and lack of resources... 72

6.1.3 Environmental variables and health ... 73

6.1.4 Environmental variables and disasters ... 75

6.2 Chapter summary ... 76

Chapter VII - Conclusion ... 77

Bibliography ... 81

Appendix ...90

Appendix 1 – January 2019 survey ...90

Appendix 2 - April 2019 survey ... 95

Appendix 3 – Translator confidentiality form ... 100

Appendix 4 - Variable dictionary ... 103

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Abbreviations

FAO - The Food and Agriculture Organisation

IDMC - The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IOM - The International Organisation for Migration

IPCC - The UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change MENA – Middle East and North Africa

Migri – Finnish Immigration Services R2P – Responsibility to Protect

The Refugee Convention - 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees UNEP – The United Nations Environment Programme

UNFCCC - The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

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Chapter I - Introduction

“Old barriers to human mobility have fallen and new patterns of movement have emerged ... These new challenges make it all the more important that we find ways to address the increasingly complex root causes of displacement.”

-Message by UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres to mark World Refugee Day, 20 June, 2008.1

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Currently, the world is experiencing unprecedented effects of environmental change and extraordinary levels of human mobility. Countries across the world risk hazardous environmental events that compromise habitability, agricultural viability, infrastructure, services and even stability of governance.2 Migration result from a multitude of interrelated factors of poverty, disparities between North and South, conflicts, labour needs, demographic explosions, and many others, all influenced by environmental factors, namely natural disasters3 and climate change.4 In light of the interconnected nature of migration and environment, migration that may initially be considered to be of other reasons, environmental stresses might be the causal factor underlying migration decision-making.5 In the meanwhile, the global population is expected to rise from the current seven billion to ten billion by the end of the century, much of which in environmentally hazardous areas.6

1 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, ‘Message by UN High Commissioner for Refugees António

Guterres to Mark World Refugee Day, 2008’, UNHCR, 20 June 2008,

https://www.unhcr.org/news/latest/2008/6/485b86532/message-un-high-commissioner-refugees-antonio-guterres-mark-world-refugee.html.

2 Jane McAdam and Ben Saul, ‘An Insecure Climate for Human Security? Climate-Induced Displacement and

International Law’, in Human Security and Non-Citizens, ed. Alice Edwards and Carla Ferstman (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), 357, 362, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808371.011.

3 Natural disaster are defined “as a process/event involving the combination of a potentially destructive

agent(s) from the natural and/or technological environment and a population in a socially and technologically produced condition of vulnerability.” Martin, Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 34.

4 Dina Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, 1st ed. (Routledge, 2016), VI,

https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315777313. See definition of climate change in 2.1.2

5 Ionesco, 36.

6 Sarah Harper, ‘Population–Environment Interactions: European Migration, Population Composition and

Climate Change’, Environmental and Resource Economics 55, no. 4 (August 2013): 525,

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-013-9677-4; Joanna Apap, ‘The Concept of “Climate Refugee” - Towards a Possible Definition’, Briefing, EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service (European Commission, January 2019), 2.

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Climate change and environmental change introduce challenges that transcend national borders.7 The environment is a globally shared interconnected system, which reacts to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses with environmental events that have become higher in frequency and strength.8 People and societies impacted by environmental events have different means of adaptation to their new reality; some decide to rebuild, some have no alternative than to stay, and some choose to migrate.9 Nevertheless, defining this large group of people is not only methodologically important but also politically challenging.10 Political awareness of the phenomenon is recent, although the environment has always influenced human migration.11 All too often, environmental migration is only mentioned in contexts of natural disasters, yet climate change and its ensuing environmental changes are already causing slow-onset environmental events, generating mobility linked to slower environmental degradation.12 Eventually, traditional coping mechanisms to environmental changes will be overwhelmed, if they are not already. 13

Mobility allows seeking safer and more prosperous lives in other resilient communities.14 Environmental migration is most often localised, but considering the rise in the number and hazard of environmental events, migration that crosses state borders can be expected to occur more.15 Environmental migrants already exist, but the extent of the phenomenon is uncharted if not impossible to measure, given the many interrelated variables driving migration. Regrettably, the rights of migrants fleeing environmental events are not covered in international legislation, forcing some to stay, others to migrate without an existing protection scheme, or to apply for asylum under other premises.16 Bearing in mind the emergent phenomenon, its international linkages, and interdisciplinary reach, the study aims to map environmental motivators among the present asylum-seeking

7 Frances Nicholson, ‘Protection and Empowerment: Strategies to Strengthen Refugees’ Human Security’, in

Human Security and Non-Citizens, ed. Alice Edwards and Carla Ferstman (Cambridge: Cambridge University

Press, 2010), 82, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808371.004.

8 Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, 35.

9 Ionesco, 18; Martin, Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 32.

10 Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, 3.

11 Ionesco, VI.

12 Ionesco, VI.

13 J. Mcadam, ‘Swimming against the Tide: Why a Climate Change Displacement Treaty Is Not the Answer’,

International Journal of Refugee Law 23, no. 1 (1 March 2011): 3, https://doi.org/10.1093/ijrl/eeq045.

14 Martin, Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 135.

15 Apap, ‘The Concept of “Climate Refugee” - Towards a Possible Definition’, 1.

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population in Finland. The Nordic nation receives the 14th most asylum seekers in the EU.17 Finland previously had a legislative clause that could have functioned as a framework for addressing the unprotected status of environmental migrants.

From 2007 to 2016, the Finnish Alien’s Act included a clause on ‘humanitarian protection’ that would have provided protection for environmental migrants. Such humanitarian protection could be given to a foreign citizen that is unable to return to their native country due to detrimental circumstances that are not recognised components in the asylum regime. Deliberating that the clause had never been enacted on the premise of an environmental event, and that an existing subsidiary protection mechanism could be purposed in the future, it was removed. To this day another possible tool, the national temporary protection mechanism remains unused likewise the humanitarian protection clause did.18 Yet, expert declarations regret the removal of the humanitarian protection clause, arguing it weakens the Finnish humanitarian oversight mechanism;19 the eradication of the clause is not anti-constitutional per se, the principles remain in line with international human rights decisions, but impairs the previous national standard and even risks the non-refoulement principle.20 At the verge of the ‘refugee crisis’ emergent from the rise of the Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East, the Finnish parliament removed

17 Eurostat, ‘Asylum Statistics - Statistics Explained’, 2019,

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_statistics#Main_countries_of_destination:_Germany.2C_France_and_Greece.

18 Timo Makkonen, ‘Oikeusministeriön Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain

Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Ministry of Justice on the Parliamentary Cabinet

Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’, 18 February 2016, EDK-2016-AK-45217; Kristiina Kumpula, ‘Suomen Punaisen Ristin Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Finnish Red Cross on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’, 2 March 2016, EDK-2016-AK-45218.;

Veli-Pekka Viljanen, ‘Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’, 19 February 2016, EDK-2016-AK-42908.

19 Elina Castren, ‘Pakolaisneuvonta Ry:N Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi

Ulkomaalaislain Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Refugee Advice Centre on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’, 2 March 2016, EDK-2016-AK-45216.

Makkonen, ‘Oikeusministeriön Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Ministry of Justice on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’.

20 Castren, ‘Pakolaisneuvonta Ry:N Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain

Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Refugee Advice Centre on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’; Viljanen, ‘Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’.

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the legislative clause.21 Legal expert Juha Raitio deliberates that the removal of the clause is purely political;22 the decision was made arguing the humanitarian protection scheme was beyond required EU standards and as such unnecessary.23 Also, the clause could ‘expose Finland to an unconscionable, excessive amount of applications compared to other EU member states’,24 a statement that has later been proven wrong.25 Notably, the EU directives are meant to provide minimum standards to its member states that may exceed them as more favourable in their national legislation, which used to be the Finnish humanitarian protection norm.26 Nonetheless, the EU lacks data on levels of environmental drivers even among its current migrants although the Union recognises migration’s interrelated drivers to include the environment.27 The EU has funded projects and reports to investigate the phenomenon, but plausibly due to the readily defined and established refugee regime, there is no information about the phenomenon’s true, current extent in the Union.28 Hence, the piece uncovers the extent and profile of environmentally induced migrants among the asylum-seekers in Finland, whose rights and humaneness have become questioned in the humanitarian protection clause debate.29

All in all, environmental migration is a highly complex phenomenon and an emergent field of research.30 The research is guided by a theory on environmental migration that asserts that not only is environment a migratory push-factor, but it augments other drivers. In light of the absence of such data, the author gathered material on migration motivations with the use of a survey.

21 The Parliamentary Cabinet, Finland, ‘HE 2/2016 Vp’ (2016).

22 Makkonen, ‘Oikeusministeriön Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain

Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Ministry of Justice on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’.

23 The Parliamentary Cabinet, Finland, HE 2/2016 vp.

24 The Parliamentary Cabinet, Finland.

25 Castren, ‘Pakolaisneuvonta Ry:N Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain

Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Refugee Advice Centre on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’.

26 Castren.

27 Eurostat, ‘Migration and Migrant Population Statistics - Statistics Explained’, 22 March 2019.

28 Michael D. Cooper, ‘Migration and Disaster-Induced Displacement: European Policy, Practice, and

Perspective - Working Paper 308’, October 2012, 49, https://www.cgdev.org/publication/migration-and-disaster-induced-displacement-european-policy-practice-and-perspective; Margit Ammer et al., ‘Time to Act - How the EU Can Lead on Climate Change and Migration’ (Brussels, Belgium: Heinrich Böll Stiftung, EU, 2014), 21.

29 Kumpula, ‘Suomen Punaisen Ristin Lausunto Hallituksen Esityksestä Eduskunnalle Laiksi Ulkomaalaislain

Muuttamisesta (HE 2/2016 vp) - Verdict from the Finnish Red Cross on the Parliamentary Cabinet Presentation to the Parliament on Changing the Alien’s Act (HE 2/2016 Vp)’.

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1.2 PROBLEM

Environmental change is recognised by international organisations and academia as a cause for migration that augments other drivers for migration.31 Estimates on environmental migrants vary a great deal between 20 million to 200 million32 that complicates studying the phenomenon and including it in policy. Although the phenomenon of ‘climate refugees’ has been in the public discourse since 1985 when the group of people was introduced in a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report,33 there is no international mechanism to protect these masses.34

The causal link of proving a connection between climate change and migration has been discussed by the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with four key environmental findings that influence migration motivations:35

• Reduced availability of water in some parts of the world and increased water availability in others with subsequent water stress for hundreds of millions;

• A decrease in crop yields putting tens of millions at risk of hunger;

• Territories at an increased risk of floods, storms, coastal flooding and eventual submersion due to rising sea-levels with the potential impact on tens of millions; • Negative overall impacts on health, especially for the poor, elderly, young and

marginalised sectors of society.

The rising intensity and impact of climate change and extreme weather events have been recognised as a potential trigger for large-scale migration, yet its exact magnitude remains unknown due to the unforeseen phenomenon.36 Despite the vast number of academic studies on the topic, the largely uncertain nature of events means that there is little

31 Richard Black et al., ‘The Effect of Environmental Change on Human Migration’, Global Environmental

Change, Elsevier, 21, no. 1 (2011): 3–11.

32 Apap, ‘The Concept of “Climate Refugee” - Towards a Possible Definition’, 1.

33 Apap, 3.

34 Apap, 3.

35 Walter Kälin and Nina Schrepfer, ‘Protecting People Crossing Borders in the Context of Climate Change

Normative Gaps and Possible Approaches’, Legal and Protection Policy Research Series (University of Bern, Switzerland: Divison of International Protection, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2012), 4.

36 Kälin and Schrepfer; Kraler, Cernei, and Noack, ‘“Climate Refugees” - Legal and Policy Responses to

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consensus and existing policy on how to manage such risk.37 International protection mechanisms are seen as a core factor to best ensure human rights of these vulnerable people, whose plight is largely caused by the 20th century emissions from the industrialised North.38 State responsibility in mitigating climate-induced migration movements ought to be taken seriously while lacking knowledge of the phenomenon’s extent hampers national policymaking.39 That is why the piece is concerned with national level data, actors and primary material.

Similarly, there is currently no distinct instrument on the supra-national EU level applicable to manage environmentally induced migrants.40 A plausible mechanism on the EU level would be to employ the ‘Temporary Protection Directive’ although its activation is dependent on European Commission decision, of which political threshold to apply it is low.41 The insecurity of future environmental changes brings new variables to the equation. The Commission's Directorate-General for Environment has pointed out that in the future these individuals could also be EU citizens, where the issue has so far been mainly spoken in terms of international mobility, beyond the EU, not within.42 Nevertheless, with modern projections, climate change is expected to influence the member states and as such ought to be tackled on a pan-European level. Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty provides necessary grounds for revising Union-wide asylum and immigration policy, but in effect, the EU member states are at the forefront to enact good practices, ideally influencing each-others’ policy towards more inclusive protection mechanisms.43 Overall, policy development in the field of legal migration in the EU is largely a national matter44 and is

37 Kälin and Schrepfer, ‘Protecting People Crossing Borders in the Context of Climate Change Normative Gaps

and Possible Approaches’; Kraler, Cernei, and Noack, ‘“Climate Refugees” - Legal and Policy Responses to Environmentally Induced Migration’, 24.

38 Kälin and Schrepfer, ‘Protecting People Crossing Borders in the Context of Climate Change Normative Gaps

and Possible Approaches’, 7, 10.

39 Kälin and Schrepfer, 8.

40 Kälin and Schrepfer, 47.

41 Kälin and Schrepfer, 26.

42 Apap, ‘The Concept of “Climate Refugee” - Towards a Possible Definition’, 9.

43 Kälin and Schrepfer, ‘Protecting People Crossing Borders in the Context of Climate Change Normative Gaps

and Possible Approaches’, 47.

44 Excluding specific policy fields of highly skilled migrants, family reunification, long-term residence. Kälin

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likely to stay as such, and development towards providing legal migration opportunities to individuals fleeing environmental developments is unlikely to be achieved on a Union-wide level.45

Consequently, the importance of national level action is significant. National policy builds its legal standards from established human rights conventions and applicable human rights case law.46 Nevertheless, only a few member states have specifically addressed the protection needs of environmentally displaced individuals; Cyprus, Greece, Italy, and Sweden explicitly mention protection in case of environmental or natural disasters, but remain unused.47 In 2016 Finland abolished its so-called ‘humanitarian protection’-mechanism included in its Aliens Act during the large influx of refugees from IS-affected regions, contemplating that such mechanism is ‘attractive’ and unnecessary as it is beyond minimum regulations on international and EU level.48 Yet, taking into account the plausible increase of environmentally displaced people lacking international protection, and the rising academic consciousness of the topic, the issue needs to be addressed. Hereafter, the study investigates driving factors for migration, with the aim of mapping possible environmentally induced motivations among people currently seeking asylum in Finland. Case studies are imperative to better understand the variety of pull- and push-factors, and thus suitable to explicate the impact of environmental change on migration. This was endorsed by Black et al. (2011) theory on the drivers of migration, where migration is believed to be an augmenting factor for other non-environmental causes, in addition to being a driving force in itself.49 As such, in spring 2019 the author approached the study by surveying asylum seekers in Finland on their migration motivations.

45 Kälin and Schrepfer, 26.

46 Kälin and Schrepfer, 19.

47 Cooper, ‘Migration and Disaster-Induced Displacement’, 54, 63, 63, 73, 82.

48 Jenny Matikainen, ‘Maahanmuuttovirasto Tiukensi Linjaansa: Suomi Ei Voi Olla Houkuttelevampi Kuin

Ruotsi - The Migration Institute Tightened Its Policy: Finland Cannot Be More Attractive than Sweden’,

Yleisradio, 17 May 2016.

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1.3 RESEARCH QUESTION

The analysis in this piece proceeds on two premises: first, that climate change is real and caused primarily by humans, inducing further environmental changes.50 The second premise is that the effects of environmental change are likely to induce some level of human mobility in various parts of the world.51

To best mitigate the effects of environmental change and their negative impacts on human and environmental security, a better understanding of the connection between migration and environment needs to be established.52 As fleeing environmental events does not qualify as a reason to seek refugee status, there is no exact data on the environment as a motivation to seek asylum. Moreover, the phenomenon is obscured by the impact of environmental events on other migration factors. Exemplified by the Finnish Immigration Service (Migri) data, there is no data on the national level of such motivation. Therefore, the study reviews the possible environmental motivations for migration by surveying the asylum-seeking population. Overall, the aim was to study the phenomenon’s prevalence among asylum seekers in Finland, and to connect the analysis to scientific reports on global environmental events.

The study is guided by a research question:

To what extent does environmental change drive asylum seekers to Finland?

Considering the wording of the research question, the piece is concerned with the possible environmental motivations in the migration decision of individuals who have sought asylum in Finland. Per se, the interest does not lie in Finland as to why people have selected Finland as their final destination. Instead, it provides a feasible case study, a plausible context to explore the phenomenon in.

Moreover, the research question allows to investigate an uncharted topic with the use of qualitative and quantitative primary research methods. It can be linked to wider issues, variety of study fields and further advanced on with later research. By mapping whether the respondents’ migration decisions have been influenced by environmental factors as

50 Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, 35.

51 McAdam and Saul, ‘An Insecure Climate for Human Security?’, 363.

52 James Morrissey, ‘Environmental Change and Forced Migration - A State of the Art Review’, Background

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outlined in the theoretical framework, the piece can uncover the possible existence and inclination of the phenomenon among asylum seekers in Finland.

1.4 RELEVANCE

The expected harmful outcomes of environmental change, issues in state and human security, drive for good governance, and lack of protection mechanisms make the study relevant. In addition to the author’s field of crisis and security management, the research is interdisciplinary in nature, touching upon international law and governance, environmental studies, (human) geography, migration, and social studies. This chapter aims to highlight the importance of the topic at hand in respect to the field of crisis and security management by describing its plausible security implications and larger societal relevance.

Climate change and its ensuing environmental abnormalities threaten livelihoods, dangerous hydro-meteorological hazard events jeopardise lives, shrink national resources, all of which can in their extremes induce armed conflict, destabilise nations and create socio-economically defenceless masses, impoverishing the already vulnerable. 53 Consequently, climate change and its connection to security have become prominent in public discourse54 and is approached as a threat multiplier.55 Insecurities in already vulnerable nations are destabilised by environmental change that fuels other risks.56 Emergently, climate change has been mainstreamed in security studies under the concept of environmental security that analyses the impacts of environmental problems in respect to national and global security.57

What is more, migration and mobility have become a predominantly securitised threat to global security that pressures Western governments to act, arguing for restorative

53 Kälin and Schrepfer, ‘Protecting People Crossing Borders in the Context of Climate Change Normative Gaps

and Possible Approaches’, 77.

54 Mcadam, ‘Swimming against the Tide’, 175.

55 Mcadam, 179.

56 Roger Zetter, ‘The Role of Legal and Normative Frameworks for the Protection of Environmentally Displaced

People’, Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence (Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2009), 399.

57 Maria J. Trombetta, ‘Environmental Security and Climate Change: Analysing the Discourse’, Cambridge

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measures from past emissions.58 In theory, this entails claims by authoritative actors that a problem constitutes a threat to a significant referent object; state apparatus in the realist terms.59 This insecurity surrounding mobility is governed through varying means of modern technologies, where the threat is framed in respect to its plausible risk to national security, spreading instability, and even crime. 60 Nevertheless, discussing the environmental change in the security arena risks militarising the issue, drawing attention away from its root causes, preventative action, and opportunities for building resilience.61 Remarkably, if migration is deemed such a threat, policies on mitigation62 and adaptation63 could prevent the realisation of the phenomenon.64

Independent of the investigated threat, good governance plays a critical role in managing orderly migration, and those that remain behind.65 States are the main implementing actors of policy and legislation that are currently lacking principles to guide the governance of environmentally induced migration.66 Seemingly, policymakers favour responding to sudden-onset events such as natural disasters with the possibility for targeted relief efforts, instead of acting on slow-onset environmental pressures.67 Humanitarian practices have been adjusted and become established over decades, albeit slow-onset events are increasingly likely and require mainstreaming new adaptation mechanisms.68 Humanitarian organisations often run relief efforts, while governments need to consider new adaptation practices in policy to address assistance and protection

58 Richard Black et al., ‘The Effect of Environmental Change on Human Migration’, Global Environmental

Change, Elsevier, 21, no. 1 (2011): 6; Zetter, ‘The Role of Legal and Normative Frameworks for the Protection of

Environmentally Displaced People’, 400.

59 Mcadam, ‘Swimming against the Tide’, 175.

60 Louise Amoore, ‘Biometric Borders: Governing Mobilities in the War on Terror’, Political Geography,

Elsevier, 25, no. 1 (2006): 336–51; Katja Franko Aas, ‘Analysing a World in Motion - Global Flows Meet “Criminology of the Other”’, Sage, Theoretical Criminology, 11, no. 2 (2007): 283–303.

61 Mcadam, ‘Swimming against the Tide’, 181.

62 Climate Change Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. UN

Environment, ‘Mitigation’, UN Environment, accessed 30 May 2019, http://www.unenvironment.org/explore-topics/climate-change/what-we-do/mitigation.

63 Climate change adaptation is defined as “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or

expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”. Martin,

Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 33.

64 Martin, 10.

65 Koko Warner, ‘Global Environmental Change and Migration: Governance Challenges’, Global Environmental

Change 20, no. 3 (August 2010): 409, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.12.001.

66 Warner, 411.

67 Lori M. Hunter, Jessie K. Luna, and Rachel M. Norton, ‘Environmental Dimensions of Migration’, Annual

Review of Sociology 41, no. 1 (14 August 2015): 392, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112223.

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of people made mobile because of environmental changes.69 Paradoxically, in countries affected by the phenomenon, there is a tendency to disregard it as a policy and social issue, which further impairs rights-based response on a national level.70

Unlike people refuging conflict, (state-sponsored) persecution, or similar insecurity that are included in the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (the Refugee Convention), people migrating due to environmental reasons are not protected under any binding international legal mechanisms.71 Taking into account the millions of people that are affected by environmental change and its myriad of impacts on livelihoods, international rights-based protection mechanisms need to be constructed.72

Intrinsically, the migration-environment nexus is an emergent area of research.73 In the midst of contemporary climate change debates, migration theory should increasingly scrutinise environmental considerations in its inquiries.74 Analytical research strategies attempting to disentangle environmental impacts among other migration motivations appears scientifically relevant and should be pursued.75 To achieve this, there is a need for more substantial evidence base of cases to support migration policymaking to become more inclusive,76 particularly in light of growing scientific interest in the topic.77 As to the need to translate research into policy, academic research ought to increasingly focus on policy relevance.78 Particularly, as the EU is in the position to take up a leadership position in ensuring human rights of environmental migrants, it can aid policy development to reduce insecurities, environmental vulnerabilities, and human rights negligence.79 In addition, the EU itself covers territory vulnerable to environmental changes, and as the

69 Nicholson, ‘Protection and Empowerment’, 89; Warner, ‘Global Environmental Change and Migration’, 412.

70 Susan Forbes Martin, Sanjula S. Weerasinghe, and Abbie Taylor, eds., Humanitarian Crises and Migration:

Causes, Consequences and Responses (Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY: Routledge, 2014), 194.

71 Zetter, ‘The Role of Legal and Normative Frameworks for the Protection of Environmentally Displaced

People’, 387.

72 Zetter, 388.

73 Etienne Piguet, ‘Linking Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, and Migration: A Methodological

Overview: Linking Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, and Migration’, Wiley Interdisciplinary

Reviews: Climate Change 1, no. 4 (July 2010): 517, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.54.

74 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, ‘Environmental Dimensions of Migration’, 387.

75 Piguet, ‘Linking Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, and Migration’, 517.

76 Warner, ‘Global Environmental Change and Migration’, 411.

77 Piguet, ‘Linking Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, and Migration’, 517.

78 Silvia Brugger and Diane Le Naour, ‘How the EU Can Lead on Climate Change and Migration – Time to

Translate Research Findings into Policies’, Heinrich Böll Stiftung European Union, 15 July 2015,

https://eu.boell.org/en/2015/07/15/how-eu-can-lead-climate-change-and-migration-time-translate-research-findings-policies.

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migrant flows through the Mediterranean Sea have shown, the EU can expect uncalculated mobility.80

The issue is timely with international and supranational organisations openly expressing concerns about the environment-migration nexus. Already in 1992, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) recognised the possible substantial role of climate change in increasing number of migrants as environmental degradation became uncovered as a factor driving migration.81 Although in 2015 the European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker addressed ‘climate refugees’ as a future challenge with a possibility of affecting other clashes, the EU has not initiated its Temporary Protection Directive to manage the phenomenon.82 Seeing reluctance among the member states to reframe their asylum and migration policies, the European Parliament and the Commission are expected to take up leading roles in creating a more inclusive migration framework.83 With reference to international, national, regional and human security and human rights, the phenomenon is critical to address.

1.5 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The phenomenon of environmental migration is an emergent, interdisciplinary topic in migration, environmental and crisis management research. The premises underlying the research at hand draw from the reality of environmental change induced by climate change, which is likely to prompt existing levels of migration. Considering these, the author surveyed asylum seekers in Finland with the aim of assessing environmental motivations within the present target population that has migrated under other grounds. The research is guided by a research question, and a theory on environmental migration that is outlined in the following chapter.

80 Ammer et al., ‘Time to Act - How the EU Can Lead on Climate Change and Migration’, 37.

81 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, ‘Environmental Dimensions of Migration’, 378.

82 Brugger and Le Naour, ‘How the EU Can Lead on Climate Change and Migration – Time to Translate

Research Findings into Policies’; Jean-Claude Juncker, ‘European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press Release - State of the Union 2015: Time for Honesty, Unity and Solidarity’, 9 September 2015,

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-15-5614_en.htm.

83 Brugger and Le Naour, ‘How the EU Can Lead on Climate Change and Migration – Time to Translate

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Chapter II - Theory

This chapter conceptualises migrants and environmental change as understood in the research. Moreover, the history of theorising environmental change and its key debates are presented. Lastly, the theoretical framework that guides the analysis is outlined. 2.1 KEY CONCEPTS, CONCEPTUALISATION

Concepts are socially constructed and built from the user’s life experiences, perspectives, and academic discipline.84 At its best, a concept can unite a phenomenon under a single term and summarise specific traits.85 Therefore, it is valuable to discuss core concepts and how they are understood in the piece at hand.

2.1.1 Refugees, the displaced and migrants

Large numbers of people encounter a rational risk of displacement due to environmental change.86 In 1990, the IPCC alerted that the gravest of effects of climate change would likely be on human migration.87 Nearly three decades later, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) stated that in response to disasters between 2008-2016, about 227.6 million people were displaced internally,88 where projections of international environmental migrants in vary greatly.89 Climate change is declared the ultimate injustice, making the vulnerable more vulnerable as a result of the past way of life of environmental disregard.90 Moreover, it is framed a matter of fact rather than as a social problem, without acknowledging the many existing prospects to solve it and its ensuing issues.91 Nevertheless, environmental migrants should not be seen as victims of environmental

84 Lesley Andres, Designing & Doing Survey Research (1 Oliver’s Yard, 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP: SAGE

Publications, Ltd, 2012), 33, https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526402202.

85 Andres, 33.

86 McAdam and Saul, ‘An Insecure Climate for Human Security?’, 357.

87 McAdam and Saul, 361.

88 Migration Data Portal, ‘Environmental Migration’, Migration data portal, 7 March 2019,

https://migrationdataportal.org/themes/environmental_migration.

89 Martin, Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 28.

90 Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, VII.

91 Chris Methmann and Angela Oels, ‘From “Fearing” to “Empowering” Climate Refugees: Governing

Climate-Induced Migration in the Name of Resilience’, ed. Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Mareile Kaufmann, and Kristian Søby Kristensen, Security Dialogue 46, no. 1 (February 2015): 51, https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010614552548.

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change only, where it is a commonly recognised adaptation strategy with individuals holding agency of their decision-making.92

Discussing the phenomenon at hand is difficult without a unified definition describing the mass of people that flee due to environmental change.93 Laying environmentally induced human displacement vis-à-vis the traditional notion of refugees is recent.94 In light of the Refugee Convention, people who have a well-founded fear of being persecuted, unable or unwilling to avail themselves of the protection of their native country or to return to it for reasons of well-founded fear are refugees.95 Moreover, the refugee definition includes a discriminative persecutory (state) agent for a well-founded fear that motivates people to flee, which is inappropriate considering environmental change.96 With no fear of possible persecution, people fleeing environmental events are not refugees in the term’s legal sense.97 Those facing an imminent threat from environmental destruction are similarly left out of the protective schemes.98

The 1998 UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement persons applies to the displaced only within state borders. Generally, people tend to migrate in their immediate region in search for better conditions close to home. Considering border regions and larger-scale environmental events, international migration takes place.99 Regrettably, these Guiding Principles are not legally binding and are rarely implemented despite their existence.100

The IOM instituted a comprehensive definition of an environmental migrant in 2007.101 As such, persons or groups of persons that decide to migrate “for reasons of sudden or

92 François Gemenne and Julia Blocher, ‘How Can Migration Serve Adaptation to Climate Change? Challenges

to Fleshing out a Policy Ideal’, The Geographical Journal 183, no. 4 (December 2017): 1, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12205.

93 Apap, ‘The Concept of “Climate Refugee” - Towards a Possible Definition’, 9.

94 Angela Williams, ‘Turning the Tide: Recognizing Climate Change Refugees in International Law’, Law &

Policy 30, no. 4 (2008): 504.

95 UNHCR, ‘Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees’ (1954), paras A1; a2.

96 McAdam and Saul, ‘An Insecure Climate for Human Security?’, 372; Roger Zetter, ‘Migration in Response to

Environmental Change’ (University of Oxford: European Commission, September 2015), 397.

97 Apap, ‘The Concept of “Climate Refugee” - Towards a Possible Definition’, 1.

98 McAdam and Saul, ‘An Insecure Climate for Human Security?’, 371.

99 European Commission et al., Migration in Response to Environmental Change. (Luxembourg: Publications

Office, 2015), 10, http://bookshop.europa.eu/uri?target=EUB:NOTICE:KHBA14006:EN:HTML.

100 Apap, ‘The Concept of “Climate Refugee” - Towards a Possible Definition’, 6.

101 Zetter, ‘The Role of Legal and Normative Frameworks for the Protection of Environmentally Displaced

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progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” are considered environmental migrants.102 Its important distinction between sudden- and slow-onset changes and therefore the inclusion of environmental changes beyond climate change compelled the author to follow the definition and call the people in question environmental migrants.

2.1.2 Climate change, environmental change

In its simplest sense, the environment includes the climate, which is one of the systems in the geosphere-biosphere that together make up the environment.103 Climate is the ‘atmospheric conditions characteristic of a specific locale’104 that has evidently been altered by greenhouse gasses accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere because of human activity.105 One of its main characteristics is the increase in average global temperatures that result in melting ice caps and its consequent sea-level rise among others.106 These changes affect temperature, rainfall, and biodiversity that are among the most reported types of environmental change.107 Climate change will bring more severe and abrupt forms of environmental change than what has been experienced in the past.108

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of 1992 (UNFCCC) has defined climate change as ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to other natural climate variability that has been observed over comparable time periods’.109 Expanding on this, the IPCC has added ‘any change of climate over time as a

102 Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, 3.

103 B.L. Turner et al., ‘Two Types of Global Environmental Change’, Global Environmental Change 1, no. 1

(December 1990): 15, https://doi.org/10.1016/0959-3780(90)90004-S.

104 C. C. Northrup, Encyclopedia of World Trade: From Ancient Times to the Present. (Boston, Massachusetts,

2015), 183.

105 Climate Change Secretariat, ‘Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation In Developing

Countries’ (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 9 September 2010), 10.

106 Climate Change Secretariat, 10.

107 Aili Pyhälä et al., ‘Global Environmental Change: Local Perceptions, Understandings, and Explanations’,

Ecology and Society 21, no. 3 (2016): 19, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08482-210325.

108 Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal, ‘Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict’,

Political Geography 26, no. 6 (August 2007): 675, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005.

109 Kälin and Schrepfer, ‘Protecting People Crossing Borders in the Context of Climate Change Normative Gaps

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result of human activity or due to natural variability’.110 There is extensive agreement that such change is the reality and even now affects African, Asian delta regions and island nations, where the effects are unevenly distributed across the globe and influence many already vulnerable societies and developing countries.111

2.2 THEORISING ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION

In academia, social and economic reasons are dominant factors in migration theories. In contemporary debates on migration, migration is framed a problem whilst environmental change is unrepresented in the field’s standard theories.112 Exemplifying, Kumpikaite and Zickute analysed 18 common migration theories, finding that one theory discussed instances of deprivation, yet none of their analysed theories included aspects of the environment per se.113

Early attempts linking migration and environmental considerations were based on agricultural analysis on land-use (Boserup 1965), a stress-threshold model of environmental hazards as a stressor (Wolpert 1966) and hypothesis of environmental dimensions of migration based on Malthusian arguments of population growth outpacing agriculture production (Bilsborrow 1992).114 Yet, these models bore simple locational characteristics and cannot tackle the nuance of multiple environmental factors.115 Following the 1980s that was characterised by asylum crises and major natural disasters, the nexus became more scrutinised.116 Hugo (1996) presented environmental factors on a continuum from slow-onset stresses to rapid-onset disasters, that he linked with migration as a household coping mechanism to diversify livelihoods.117 Hugo also emphasised on the prerequisite for resources in cross-border migration.118 This theory demonstrated the need to effectively integrating the interlinked dynamics of

110 Kälin and Schrepfer, 4.

111 Kälin and Schrepfer, 15.

112 Black et al., ‘The Effect of Environmental Change on Human Migration’, 3.

113 Vilmante Kumpikaite and Ineta Zickute, ‘Synergy of Migration Theories: Theoretical Insights’, Inzinerine

Ekonomika-Engineering Economics 23, no. 4 (2012): 387–94.

114 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, ‘Environmental Dimensions of Migration’, 378.

115 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, 379.

116 François Gemenne, ‘How They Became the Human Face of Climate Change. Research and Policy

Interactions in the Birth of the “Environmental Migration” Concept.’, Cambridge University Press, 2011, 1, https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/141894.

117 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, ‘Environmental Dimensions of Migration’, 379.

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environmental factors and other motivations for migration across time and space.119 Adding, Homer-Dixon (1994) discusses environmental migration in the context of group-identity conflicts, declaring importance to unique socio-ecological systems.120Analysing past studies on environment and migration, Hunter, Luna & Norton (2015) outlined that studies of environmental migration have a growing collection of case studies that take into account a larger multitude of variables.121

Fundamentally, there has been a shift within the environmental migration studies back and forth in viewing climate change and environmental effects together and separate.122 Beginning as a study of disaster-driven displacement, research emergent from recent climate change mainstreaming has caused a distinct move towards neglecting people migrating due to environmental disruptions not related to climate change.123 Nevertheless, there is an implicit assumption in academia that conclusions from either strand of research hold true for the other due to their inherently shared foundations.124

Tremendous advancements in scholarly understanding of the environmental dimensions of migration have been made in the past 20 years.125 There is a divide between seeing environmental migration as a distinct driving force and a contributing force.126 Academics isolating environmental factors are called alarmists and those stressing the phenomenon’s complexity, sceptics.127 Environmental scholars and NGOs foreseeing a humanitarian catastrophe often represent the alarmist viewpoint.128 Such worldview goes hand-in-hand with climate change advocacy group rhetoric, pushing for policy change.129 Simultaneously, migration scholars adopt a more sceptical point of view, insisting on a more interrelated array of drivers.130 These perspectives demonstrate the multi-disciplinary nature of the

119 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, 379.

120 Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, ‘Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases’,

International Security 19, no. 1 (1994): 20, https://doi.org/10.2307/2539147.

121 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, ‘Environmental Dimensions of Migration’, 386.

122 Gemenne and Blocher, ‘How Can Migration Serve Adaptation to Climate Change?’, 1.

123 Gemenne and Blocher, 1.

124 Gemenne and Blocher, 1.

125 Hunter, Luna, and Norton, ‘Environmental Dimensions of Migration’, 386.

126 Martin, Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 29.

127 Martin, 29.

128 Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, 6.

129 Ionesco, 6.

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phenomenon and the distinct divide between natural and social sciences.131 Together, they shape the contemporary policy debate on environmental and migration policies that are value-laden by the fields’ intrinsic normative assumptions.132 In light of these deliberations, the author tests the hypothesised interrelated nature of migration drivers.

In a 2008 publication, Stojanov classified environmentally induced migrations according to the nature of their causes. The scheme outlines five categories; 1) Natural disasters, 2) Cumulative (slow-onset) changes, 3) Involuntarily-caused and industrial accidents, 4) Development projects, 5) Conflicts and workforce. 133 Climate change enhanced environmental events are concerned with the first two, whereas the three latter ones are more directly and rapidly influenced by human behaviour. A key distinction on migration motivations needs to be made on the type of environmental event, between more sudden events and gradual deterioration, two of which manifest differently but influence each other.134 Mobility responses to the former are often larger in scale but mostly temporary, whereas the latter induces more permanent out-migration.135

Developing on this, Black, Adger, Arnell, Dercon, Geddes, and Thomas (Black et al.) made an important step toward conceptualising the migration-environment nexus to a more comprehensive framework in 2011. Assessing the environment’s influence on (non-)migration, Black et al. developed a framework concentrating on push-factors for migrating and included the environment as an individual factor and as a feature augmenting others. Emergent case studies on the environment’s impacts on migration functioned as the base for Black et al. in their attempt to create a framework to support varying claims and test hypotheses on the nexus of environmental change and migration. Extracting from case studies that describe local changes in migration patterns, it became apparent that a new framework ought to support different migration outcomes and diversity of time and space scales, including environment as an underlying a factor.136

131 Gemenne and Blocher, ‘How Can Migration Serve Adaptation to Climate Change?’, 2.

132 Gemenne and Blocher, 2, 14.

133 Jane McAdam, ed., Climate Change and Displacement: Multidisciplinary Perspectives (Oxford ; Portland, Or:

Hart Pub, 2010), 11.

134 McAdam, 15.

135 McAdam, 15.

136 Barbara Neumann et al., ‘Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal

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Attempting to gather varying features that affect the volume, direction, and frequency of migration, the framework is used to explicate possible environmental push-factors among the current asylum seekers in Finland.

2.3 THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Migration is approached as a socially acceptable behaviour that people engage in in the context of their experiences of the local climate, the environment, personal resources and risk perception.137 It is a strategy influenced by personal behavioural components and is considered an adaptive activity.138 The presented framework was developed in 2011 and later applied by the IOM in its Foresight report, chaired by Richard Black;139 It is based on the premise environmental change has the potential to affect the hazardousness of places and impact migration indirectly through other drivers.140

Figure 1 - Black et al. conceptual framework141

The framework is four-fold, i) incorporates environmental change as a direct and indirect influence; ii) conceptualises five families of drivers of migration (economic, political, demographic, social, environmental); iii) presents barriers and facilitators to migration,

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571; Black et al., ‘The Effect of Environmental Change on Human Migration’, 3.

137 Martin, Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 123.

138 Martin, 123, 127.

139 Ionesco, The Atlas of Environmental Migration, 37.

140 Harper, ‘Population–Environment Interactions’, 528.

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emphasising individual’s agency on decision-making; iv) distinguishes types of migration (Migrate/Stay).

The actual or perceived changes in the five possible drivers influence migration, where the nature of their interaction affects the mobility’s scale. Factors such as sudden hazards or more slow-onset crises add up to the equation on the macro-level, leading to decision-making. The decision is considered keeping in mind the meso-level obstacles and facilitators of networks, costs, and other opportunity factors. Similarly, micro-level resources and characteristics are considered, (dis)approving the decision. All combined, the final verdict of staying or moving is formed.

Employment opportunities, income and economic growth influence migration as

economic drivers. Similarly, with well transferrable skills and acceptable standard of living,

economic drivers can motivate people to migrate but cannot alone explain mobility. Increased income and wage differentials can also lead to greater vulnerability to environmental hazards, and in the end, it is the personal characteristics that differentiate who migrates. Political dimension entails government or conflict breakdowns that trigger mobility. Mostly such mobility is over short distances, dependent on the scale of the breakdown, along with personal resources. Conflicts can interact with other drivers contributing to mobility, including the demographic dimension that includes population density, disease prevalence, and the demographics of the region. Demographic dimensions interact with other drivers, pushing the more resourceful to migrate further, leaving the more vulnerable behind. Social features of education and culture are often combined with economic drivers that enable inter-communal networks across spaces, to the point where past migration is a good predictor for future migration. Social drivers can particularly explicate how and why opportunities to migrate are not evenly distributed. Lastly, the

environmental characteristics affect the population’s possible exposure to hazards and the

availability of sustainable ecosystems. Environmental disasters are well-known displacement triggers, although generating mainly short-distance migration. Nevertheless, environmental and demographic drivers affect whether people return, a decision that can furthermore be constrained by political stability. Exemplifying, the scope of the damage,

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resources to relocate back, age and even fear of similar disaster were considered as influential factors among the initially displaced people from Hurricane Katrina.142

Distinguishing between displacement and mobility as the ends of the same continuum, displacement is seen as an involuntary or even forced movement and mobility as proactive and more planned movement.143 Both are applicable to the framework with different enablers and barriers. Above all, patterns of vulnerability and socio-economic community contexts are determinants for mobility according to the framework. Taking into account the range and multitude of future potential environmental hazards, the number of communities and vulnerable populations at risk is on the rise.

Only in rare cases can migrants be classified as environmental migrants alone as to the complexity of identifying migration drivers. This does not mean that environmental causes as substantial drivers should not be mainstreamed, quite the opposite; with large-scale agreement on the rising effects of environmental change, there are significant reasons to disseminate knowledge on the phenomenon and have it included in debate. 2.4 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter described the research’s core concepts and theories that have influenced the theoretical framework used in the ensuing analysis. The piece uses an IOM instituted definition of a migrant, and environmental change is understood as climate change augmented changes and other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. In short, environmental migration theories and theorists vary between so-called alarmists that isolate environment as a superior driving force that needs to be addressed urgently, and the sceptics who stand for the interconnected nature of different migration drivers. The selected theoretical framework was established in 2011 and has since been adopted in IOM and UK Government Office for Science and Foresight reports. Before setting out further, a short literature review on the phenomenon of environmental migration and its adjacent topics will be provided.

142 Black et al., 7.

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Chapter III – Body of knowledge

“It is for the people to determine the destiny of the territory and not the territory the destiny of the people.”

–Judge Dillard, Separate opinion on the Western Sahara Case (Advisory Opinion) 1975, ICJ Rep 12, 122.144

While environmental migration is a relatively new concept and an emergent field of research, the notions of environmental change and migration are more established. To be able to understand the phenomenon, this chapter outlines the larger context of environmental change and the history of migration studies, before mapping out current research on the field of environmental migration. Moreover, adjacent concepts of human- and environmental security, climate-conflict linkages, protection mechanisms, and humanitarian practices are presented to provide for a solid analytical base.

3.1 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

The Earth has transformed during its human history in an altering manner.145 The most recent outbreak is global in scope; it progresses in unprecedented speed and changes the life-sustaining biogeochemical flows.146 The change is occurring so rapidly that natural systems are unable to adapt to them.147 Much of these changes are caused by global human activities of which consequences are regionalised, effecting certain areas more than others.148 Additionally, there is increased pressure on the environment caused by population growth, urbanisation and consumeristic lifestyles. 149 A multitude of environmental changes can be expected to influence existing lifestyles, directly and indirectly, most significant being global climate change, degradation of land and coastal marine ecosystems.150

144 Hardy C. Dillard, ‘Separate Opinion of Judge Dillard to Western Sahara Case 1975 ICJ Rep p 12’, Separate

opinion, 1975, https://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-related/61/061-19751016-ADV-01-07-EN.pdf.

145 Turner et al., ‘Two Types of Global Environmental Change’, 14.

146 Turner et al., 14.

147 Martin, Climate, Environmental Hazards and Migration in Bangladesh, 4.

148 Turner et al., ‘Two Types of Global Environmental Change’, 14.

149 Harper, ‘Population–Environment Interactions’, 254.

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