The importance of universal legal recognition of environmentally forced migrants from a crisis management perspective

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Master Crisis and Security Management

THE IMPORTANCE OF UNIVERSAL LEGAL RECOGNITION OF

ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANTS FROM A CRISIS

MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE

A crisis management model to assist states to provide appropriate assistance, protection and support in a timely coordinated manner, which is included in a new protocol within the UNFCCC

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“This is a highly complex issue, with global organizations already overwhelmed by the demands of conventionally-recognized refugees, as originally defined in 1951. We should prepare now, however, to define, accept and accommodate this new breed of [environmental]

‘refugee’ within international frameworks” (United Nations University, 2005, p. 2)

Submitted by: Submitted to:

A.C.M. Teuben Supervisor: Drs. K. Nagtegaal

MSc. Student Crisis and Security Management Second reader: J. van Buuren

Student number: S1910116 Leiden University Master Thesis

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Acknowledgements

A special thank you, to my supervisor K. Nagtegaal,

to my parents, sister and best friend Eva for always supporting me, and to everyone else who supported me,

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Abbreviations

1951 Geneva Convention the Convention relating the Status of Refugees CMOF Crisis Migration Operation Framework

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

EJF Environmental Justice Foundation

EU the European Union

GEG Global Environmental Governance

GIS Geographical Information System

IDMC the International Displacement Monitoring Centre IOM International Organisation for Migration

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MDVA Migration and Displacement Vulnerability Assessments

NGO Non-governmental organisation

NNSA Non-Nation State Actor

OAU Convention Organization of African Unity Convention

PPS Permanent Protection Status

RSD Refugee Status Determination TPD Temporary Protection Directive

TPS Temporary Protected Status

TRS Temporary Relocation Scheme

UDHR Universal Declaration of Human Rights

UN the United Nations

UNEP the United Nations Educational Programme

UNFCCC the United Nations Framework for Climate Change Convention UNHCR the United Nations Higher Commissioner for Refugees

UNISDR the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNU-EHS the United Nations University for Environment and Human

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Chapter I Introduction

In 2008, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres, stated “the twenty-first century will be categorised by the mass movements of people being pushed and pulled within and beyond their border, by conflict, calamity, or opportunity” (Guterres, 2008, p. 90). At present, civil wars and violations of human rights are affecting millions of individuals worldwide that are in “search of safety” (Guterres, 2008, p. 90). In addition, globalisation plays an important role in the migration movement of people to have a better life, because it has led to unresolved poverty, continuing insecurity and unequal economic growth (Guterres, 2008). Nevertheless, climate change will have an increasing influence on “environmental degradation and environmentally dependent socio-economic systems”, which will eventually result in mass migration flows and displacements of people, alias environmental migrants (Warner, Hamza, Oliver-Smith, & Renaud, 2010, p. 689). Research by Myers (2002) indicates that 200 million people will be displaced in 2050 as a result of the effects of global warming/climate change, such as “sea-level rise and coastal ﬂooding, by disruptions of monsoon” and by protracted duration of drought or rainfalls (Myers, 2001, p. 609). According to the latest research of Cornwell University “one-fifth of the world’s population”, which is two billion individuals, may become environmental forced migrants in the year 2100. The main cause is the rising sea level that will have distressing effects on human security in the Pacific and Asia (Hadlock, 2017). According to the Environmental Justice Foundation (hereafter EJF) each year 21.5 million people were displaced between 2008 and 2016 as a result of extreme weather events, which is “41 people every single minute” (EJF, 2017). However, the current universal legal frameworks (human rights law, environmental law, refugee law and statelessness law) are far away from recognising this group. Nevertheless, “environmental migration is not a new phenomenon” (McAdam, 2010, p. 1). In the past, environmental changes have always threatened populations and led to them being internally or cross-border displaced (McAdam, 2010). This is partly due to the fact that “human mobility today is blurring the traditional distinction between refugees, internally displaced people, and international immigrants” (Guterres, 2008, p. 90). On the other hand, the efforts from the international community to develop policies that are focused on the pre-empting, governing or directing these mass migration flows in a balanced way have been inconsistent (Guterres, 2008, p. 90). Therefore, the UNHCR has stated there is a “need to provide international protection to persons outside the current international legal definition of refugee”, which are people that are forced to leave

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their household because of environmental change or disasters (Schwartz, 1993, p. 379). Moreover, a new legal framework could “break out of the traditional state-to-state” decision making and could include civil society and other non-state actors to develop an international treaty with the appropriate humanitarian responses and “could push states to expedite the negotiating process” (Docherty & Giannini, 2009, p. 350). In these responses vulnerability should be included as a factor within the preparation of responses (Ahmed, 2018), because “it can help determine what types of assistance or interventions are required” (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011, p. e17). Therefore, in a new legal framework, a migration crisis management model should be included wherein “an innovative, international and interdisciplinary approach can be implemented before the situation reaches the crisis” (Docherty & Giannini, 2009, pp. 349-350). A migration crisis management model should include financial or other resources that are distributed in the pre-phase or during a crisis (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011) and provide protection after the crisis (Ahmed, 2018). Currently, no such crisis management model exists (Docherty & Giannini, 2009).

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1.1 Research objective

To date, there is no universal legal basis within conventions that recognises environmentally forced migrants that have migrated cross-border. In addition, there is no obligation under international law for states to assist these cross-border displaced people as a result of the effects of climate change. However, “climate displacement, if not properly planned for and managed, may give rise to tensions and instability within States” and in host states (Displacement Solutions, 2013, p. 8). Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an Environmental Crisis Migration Operational Model that could be placed within a new universal legal framework. This model provides an organisational structure where requests from host or home states can be carried out to obtain or provide the appropriate and adequate assistance and protection. This model is partly based on the model of “Climate Change Displacement Organisation” from Hodgkinson, Burton, Anderson and Young (2010, p. 120) 1_{. Furthermore,}

three timelines will be made to provide a coordinated response from home and host states to implement strategies within the three phases of a crisis (pre, during, post).

The term ‘environmentally forced migrants’ will be used throughout this research, because there is no accepted universal legal terminology. The term will be further explained in subparagraph 3.1.4.

1_{More info: see page 120, of the journal article “The hour when the ship comes in: a convention for persons}

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1.2 Research questions and sub questions

Central research question: What kind of crisis management model could be developed within a

new universal legal framework to assist states in providing the appropriate assistance and protection to environmentally forced migrants?

Sub questions:

1. Wat are environmentally forced migrants? Why does this group exists?

2. How are environmentally forced migrants framed by academics, scholars or politicians? 3. To what extent do international conventions related to climate change and refugees protect or recognise environmentally forced migrants? Are they recognised in other (regional) conventions?

4. What has been recommended by academics and scholars for the universal legal recognition of this group of migrants?

5. Which strategies exist to cope with the effects of environmental changes on populations?

6. Is it possible to develop a migration crisis management model within a new legal framework?

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1.3 Academic and societal relevance

The academic relevance of this study is to demonstrate that there are legal protection gaps in contemporary UN Conventions, in relation to e.g. refugee law, environmental law, human rights and stateless persons’ law. At the moment, none of these conventions have explicitly recognised or mentioned cross-border forced migration as a consequence of climate change. However, without legally recognising this group, this group will stay in the “grey area” and as will be explained later on, climate change will have a major impact on “environmental degradation”, which will eventually result in mass cross-border migration flows and displacement of people, also from non-conflict countries (Warner, Hamza, Oliver-Smith, & Renaud, 2010, p. 689). Therefore, this explorative research aims to explain how these people are affected by environmental changes and why they are still not legally recognised. It addresses the legal gap by analysing the UNFCCC and the Convention relating the Status of Refugees (hereafter UN 1951 Geneva Convention). More importantly, this research aims to develop an environmental crisis migration operational model (within a new Protocol added to the UNFCCC), which includes an organisational model and a timeline wherein tasks and strategies for home and host states are coordinated in a timely manner. This Environmental Crisis Migration Operational Model can be seen as a potential solution to a growing issue in the future.

The societal relevance of this research is that environmental factors, such as climate change, have significant influence on vulnerable communities around the world. As a result, millions of people have to relocate or flee their country (Boas, 2011). This research can assist in understanding that migration flows not only develop in conflict or poverty areas. In addition, climate change can influence other societal factors (social, political, economic etcetera.) and therefore have a direct or indirect effect of mass migration flows that cross international borders (Black, et al., 2011). In addition, the research can also assist in the understanding that environmentally forced migration can develop into civil conflicts, ethnic clashes and political instability.

Furthermore, it can be argued that the subject is related to the master Crisis and Security Management, because it will use a crisis management approach in a new model related to environmentally forced migration.

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Chapter II Theoretical framework

This chapter describes the chosen framework and theories to assist the author to understand the complex issue of environmentally forced migrants.

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2.1 Theory

The objective of this subparagraph is to explain the chosen frameworks (drivers of migration and crisis migration operational framework) and the regime theory in order to answer the main research question. The framework of Black et al. (2011) explains the five drivers of migration, in order to understand the decision-making process of environmentally forced migrants (see next page 13, Figure 1, Conceptual framework ‘drivers of migration’). The regime theory, including the global governance concept, is needed to understand how the 1951 Geneva Convention, along with the 1967 Protocol and the UNFCCC are established and how they operate (e.g. decision-making procedures, norms, principles, rules, parties involved etc.) Furthermore, the Crisis Migration Operational Framework from the International Organisation of Migration (hereafter IOM, 2012) will be used to develop a crisis management model that gives insight in the suitable way of providing protection and assistance by states to populations that are affected by environmental changes and internally or cross-border displaced. This framework can be included in a new protocol that legally recognises environmentally forced migrants in relation to the UNFCCC. This new crisis management model could be seen as a proposal that provides an organisational structure and includes strategies that are coordinated in a timeline.

The framework of drivers of migration, the regime theory including the global environmental governance concept, and the crisis migration operational framework will be further explained in the following subparagraphs: 2.1.1, 2.1.2 and 2.1.3.

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2.1.1 Framework ‘drivers of migration’

This thesis will use Black’s et al. (2011) framework on ‘drivers of migration’ to assess the “indirect effect of environmental change on the other four drivers” which eventually leads to migration or has a direct effect on migration (see below in Figure 1. Conceptual framework ‘drivers of migration’). This framework contains four elements (from left to right). The first element is the influence of the environmental change as a direct influence on migration or through the environmental drivers, “and also as an indirect influence through changes to the other four drivers” (Black, et al., 2011, p. S5). The second element is the pentagon that identifies the five drivers of migration. In addition, the pentagon includes the different forms of recognition (actual and perceived) that have a crucial effect on the in the decision-making process to migrate. The first and second element can be viewed as push factors (e.g. “political instability”, conflict, increase of population growth and “lack of economic opportunities and access to resources”) (Black, Kniveton, & Schmidt-Verkerk, 2013, p. 34) The third element gives an overview of the decision-making process, which is influenced by changes in the five drivers, but also formed by the personal characteristics to migrate. The fourth element displays the different obstacles and facilitators that influence their decision to migrate. The third and fourth element include pull factors (e.g. “the availability of employment and demand for workers […] political stability or access to resources […]) and intervening factors, [which] facilitate or restrict migration” (e.g. emigration policies, family members, work connections). (Black, Kniveton, & Schmidt-Verkerk, 2013, p. 34)

Figure 1. Conceptual framework ‘drivers of migration’

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According to Black et al. (2011), this framework can be used in three different ways. Firstly, the framework can be applied “for developing hypotheses and framing empirical studies of the effects of environmental change on migration” (Black, et al., 2011, p. S9). They have argued that only a small number of studies have researched and/or tried to understand the impacts of environmental change on other drivers of decision-making and migration. In addition, research has been conducted “into the extent to which the interaction between economic, political, social and demographic factors affects who is displaced by an extreme environmental event” (Black, et al., 2011, p. S9). For example: how long are they displaced and where do they go to? This has created a knowledge gap in the contemporary literature on environmental migration (Black, et al., 2011).2

Secondly, the framework can be applied “to inform the development of policy options and to assist in their evaluation” (Black, et al., 2011, p. S9). The framework highlights that migration can be seen as response strategy as a result of gradual or sudden changes in environmental drivers. Moreover, the framework displays that migration and displacement consist of “complex function of range of drivers”, which can be caused by environmental change (Black, et al., 2011, p. S9). Therefore, Black et al. (2011) states that governments should take these two arguments into account when making new policies. This is due to the fact that, as the authors point out, policies to decrease migration likely to have the unwanted effect of rising vulnerability of their inhabitants to eventually leads to displacement in future environmental events/disasters. Thirdly, the framework can be applied to develop future situations where ‘most likely’ new migration flows and patterns will arise. This can assist in “planning purposes or for the evaluation of policy interventions” (Black, et al., 2011, p. S9). In addition, it is important to note that future migration flows/patterns will not rely only on effects of environmental change, but also on how the other four drivers change and affects migration (Black, et al., 2011).

2_{For more information see: page S9 of Black et al (2011) journal article: the effect of environmental change on} human security

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2.1.2 Regime theory and the global environmental governance concept

Regime theory, which is developed within international relations, describes how “nation-states are central actors in global negotiations, with civil society playing only a minor or supportive role in shaping outcomes” (Khan, 2016, p. 16). According to Krasner (1982) these regimes operate in a variety of areas and consist of four elements that assist in overcoming shared problems and develop collective action among states (Krasner, 2012). These four elements are: “principles (beliefs of facts, causation” and morality), norms (“standards of behaviour”

regarding “rights and obligations”), rules (prescriptions or proscriptions for action) [and]

decision-making procedures”, which are fundamental practices for developing and

implementing “collective choice” (Krasner, 2012, p. 3). In this view, Bernstein and Cashore (2012) state hat “the environmental regime […] was notably and increasingly focused on attempts to influence domestic practices, policies and policy-making processes rather than simply to constrain or modify the external behaviour of states” (Bernstein & Cashore, 2012, p. 585).

However, Okereke & Bulkeley (2007) argue that the regime theory is primarily and traditionally state-centric and little attention is paid to the influence and involvement of Non-Nation State Actors (hereafter NNSAs), such as corporations, non-governmental organisations (hereafter NGOs), sub-national actors and local governments (Okereke & Bulkeley, 2007). Moreover, “power is not always monopolised by state actors, but is often rather shared between nation state and non-nation-state actors”, especially in the environmental governance regime, as argued by Okereke & Bulkeley (2007, p. 40). Therefore, the concept of ‘global environmental

governance’ (hereafter GEG) has been placed under the regime theory, “to manage the global

environment for the collective interest of all” (Okereke & Bulkeley, 2007, p. 9). Moreover, GEG refers to “world politics that are no longer confined to nation states, but are characterized by an increasing participation of actors that have so far been largely active at the subnational level, [which] include private actors, such as networks of experts, environmentalists, and multinational corporations […], new agencies […], intergovernmental organisations and international courts” (Biermann & Pattberg, 2008, p. 280).

The GEG consist of three new characteristics, compared to environmental policy and law making before the establishing of UNFCCC. The first characteristics is that “the number of actors and the degree of their participation in global environmental governance have increased substantially” (Biermann & Pattberg, 2008, p. 280). The second characteristic is that the

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diversity of categories of organisation have increased and have become more involved (e.g. public-private partnership) (Biermann & Pattberg, 2008, p. 280). The third characteristic is that “established organizations have adapted new roles and responsibilities, [such as] engage in agenda setting, policy formulation, and the establishment of rules and regulations” (Biermann & Pattberg, 2008, p. 281). In addition, NGOs with the focus on lobbying have obtained an important role within environmental politics. Furthermore, policy research institutes, business associations and activist groups also have an increasing role in “provide research and policy advice, monitoring the commitments of states, informing governments and the public about the actions of their own diplomats and […] negotiation partners, and giving diplomats at international meetings direct feedback” (Biermann & Pattberg, 2008, p. 281). Especially the network of scientists, which is predominantly prevalent in the environmental regime, has therefore obtained an important role in providing “complex technical information” that is vital for the policy making on problems that have certain degree of uncertainty (Biermann & Pattberg, 2008, p. 281).

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2.1.3 Crisis Migration Operational Framework

In 2012, the IOM established the Crisis Migration Operation Framework (hereafter CMOF), because of the growing interest of IOM Member States relating to their protection actions linked to the internal and international crisis migration situations. The CMOF “is based on the understanding” that nation-states have the main responsibility to provide assistance and protection towards displaced persons within their borders (IOM, 2012, p. 1). Furthermore, the CMOF can be seen as an operational and analytical instrument to provide an overview of the variety of actors involved in providing protection and assistance (IOM, n.d.). CMOFs are developed by the IOM, which are all different depending on the cause of the crisis (e.g. man-made or natural) (IOM, 2012). This is due to the fact that the IOM tries to “provide a holistic response to the complex nature of crisis-generated populations flows (internal and international) (IOM, n.d.).

The CMOF has two characteristics.

1. “The phases of the crisis”, refer to the three different stages, namely before, during and after an environmental event has happened, that develop the direct type of the response by other actors involved (IOM, 2012, p. 3). In the ‘before’-stage “pre-crisis prevention of forced migration and preparedness” are needed (IOM, 2012, p. 3). During a crisis disaster response to migration is needed and post-crisis recovery strategies that address the temporary and permanent “effects of a migration crisis” (IOM, 2012, p. 3).

2. The involvement of variety of actors from diverse sectors “that have a specific function in an operational response, depending on the type and phase of the crisis” (IOM, 2012, p. 3). Some of these non-state actors can request assistance from the particular affected state or host state. According to the IOM (2012), the interdependence of the actors involved will reinforce the internal consistency when a crisis migration occurs (IOM, 2012).

For, this study the general figure of the IOM is displayed in Figure 2. Example of a CMOF on the following page. The examples are of the sudden and slow-onset disasters are displayed in appendix 1.

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The IOM states that the fundamental component of the CMOF is to organise and improve responses “by bringing together different sectors of assistance […] help crisis-affected populations, including displaced persons and international migrants stranded in crisis situations” in their home or host country (IOM, 2012, p. 1).. To improve their access to fundamental human rights of having assistance and protection, they need to act on “unaddressed migration dimensions of a crisis” and develop cooperation with other actors (IOM, 2012, p. 1).

However, the CMOF is more focused on the involvement and collaboration between international organisations than the obligations of states by for example implementing temporary protection status (hereafter TPS). Therefore the new Environmental Crisis Migration Organisational and

Operational Model will be focused on the cooperation between hosts state and the affected state and the implementation of the various strategies within the three phases of a crisis. Because, eventually, the states have the primary authority to decide what kind of strategies must be implemented and which NNSA can assist them in helping/preparing for environmental change or disaster. This framework will also include the incremental environmental change that focuses on the anticipated (crisis) migration flows (e.g. from the Pacific Islands). Eventually, as previously mentioned, this framework will be included in a Protocol that legally recognises environmentally forced migrants, which is added to the UNFCCC.

Figure 2. Example of a CMOF

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2.2 Funnel of thought

The funnel of thought outlines the thoughts of this study to eventually answer the research question, as displayed below in Figure 3, Visualised funnel of thought. In order to develop a new Environmental Migration Crisis Organisational and Operational Model, several steps must be taken on beforehand. Firstly the drivers of migration framework of Black et al. (2011) will assist the author to understand how this group is shaped and has become cross-border displaced. Secondly, the UN Conventions are analysed with regard to their organisational structure, the legal recognition status of environmentally forced migrants and the recommendations for legal recognition. Thirdly, various strategies based on reduction of vulnerability among populations that will be affected or are affected by environmental change will be examined. These three steps will assist in the development of a new Crisis Environmental Migration Organisational and Operational Model. In addition, a small holistic case study of the Pacific Islands is included to make clear how urgent the issue of environmentally forced migration is.

Environmentally forced migrants &

Environmentally forced migration (causes and consequences)

UN Conventions related to refugees and climate change

Strategies & recommendations

Drivers of migration framework

Regime theory & the global environmental governance concept Crisis Migration Operational Framework New Crisis Environmental Migration Organisational and Operational Model

Figure 3. Visualised funnel of thought

Small holistic case

study Pacific Islands

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2.3 Conceptualisation

This paragraph will give an overview of concepts that will be used throughout this research, as shown in Table 1. Conceptualisation below. This table is developed to correctly understand the concepts by providing applicable definitions (according to the author’s preference).

Table 1. Conceptualisation

Concepts Definition

National interest “the meaning of national interest is survival, the protection of physical, political and cultural identity against encroachments by other nation-states” (Morgenthau, 1951).

National security “refers to security of the national interests of the state. States define their national interests in different ways. In most states, these include one or more of the following: protection of territory, protection of citizens, legal order, economic interests, geopolitical interests based on how they view and relate to other countries, ideological values such as democracy, human rights, peace, religious values protection of civilians in other countries, or ideas such as racial segregation” (Schirch, 2016, p. 142)

Human security “protecting fundamental freedoms- freedoms that are the essence of life. It means protecting people form critical (severe) and pervasive (widespread) threats and situations. It means using processes that build on people’s strengths and aspirations. It means creating political, social, environmental, economic, military and cultural systems that together give people the building blocks of survival, livelihood and dignity” (UNCHS, 2004, p. 4).

International law-making “the "nation-state" as the primary lawmaker; (2) the treaty as the preeminent form of international law; and (3) international law-making as an "off-the-shelf" process that political elites deliberately orchestrate” (Levit, 2007, p. 395).

Law – making treaties “stipulate ‘integral obligations’(that is, they have to be performed as such and in their entirety), and they establish a regime towards all the world rather than towards particular parties” (Brolmann, 2005, p. 384). Bottom-up law making “is a soft, unpredictably organic process that generates hard, legal results. Private parties, nongovernmental

organizations (NGOs), and/or mid-level technocrats coalesce around shared, on-the-ground experiences and perceived self-interests, "codifying" norms that at once reflect and condition group practices. Over time, these informal rules embed, often unintentionally, in a more formal legal system and thereby become ‘law’” (Levit, 2007, p. 395).

Top- down international law making

“state actors making international law and imposing it on others who may have been quite removed, geographically and politically, from the entire law-making process” (Levit, 2005, p. 126).

Environmental refugees “are those people wo have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardizes their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life” (Cardy, 1994, p. 2)

Environmental migrants “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (Laczko & Aghazarm, 2009, p. 19).

Environmentally or climate induced migration

“environmentally induced migration and human security concerns associated with individuals displaced as a result of climatic variability” (Assan & Rosenfeld, 2012, p. 1046).

Environmental governance

“the system of values, policies and institutions by which a society manages its economic, political and social affairs through interactions within and among the state, civil society and private sector. It is the way a society organizes itself to make and implement decisions – achieving mutual understanding, agreements and action” (EURoAsiaMUN, 2014, p. 6)

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Climate change “climate change will cause population movement by making certain parts of the world much less viable places to live; by causing food and water supplies to become more unreliable and increasing the frequency and severity of floods and storms” (Brown O. , 2007, p. 9)

Migration crisis “the complex and often large-scale mobility patterns caused by a crisis which typically involve significant vulnerabilities for individuals and affected communities and generate acute and longer-term migration management challenges. A migration crisis may be sudden or slow in onset, can have natural or man-made causes, and can take place internally or across borders” (IOM, 2012, pp. 2-3)

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Chapter III Methodology

This chapter explains the methodological choices of this thesis. The author will first elaborate on the chosen research design, by focusing on the unit of analysis and observation, the holistic case study and the justification of research. Thereafter, the operationalisation of the concepts will be explained. Subsequently, the data collection method, data exploitation and finally the research limitation will be elaborated.

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3.1 Research Design

As previously mentioned, currently environmentally forced migrants are still unrecognised by international law and therefore without support from the universal community. Nevertheless the magnitude of effects of environmental change will increase and develop a “new and increasingly prevalent” migration flow, which will potentially become a new humanitarian crisis (Williams, 2008, p. 506). Therefore an explorative central research question has been developed that creates a new crisis management approach (focused on the actions of the home and host states) within a new legal Protocol. To answer the central research question, an inductive qualitative research design is needed to eventually gain “a rich and complex understanding” about the environmentally forced migrants (different terminologies, causes and consequences), the suitable conventions (refugee and climate) and applicable (pre, during and post –event) strategies (Tripathy & Tripathy, 2017 , p. 104). This inductive direction can be seen as an approach to develop a model “that begins with concrete empirical evidence and works towards more abstract concepts and theoretical relationships” (Neuman, 2014 , p. 70).

The Research design outline is presented in Figure 4 on the next page and will be briefly explained. Firstly (see box number 1 in the figure), the different terminologies of environmentally forced migrants have been analysed and eventually a new terminology has been developed and used throughout this study. Secondly (box number 2), the causes and the consequences have been analysed (light blue arrows). In the analysis the framework of Black et al. ‘drivers of migration’ will be used to analyse these data (green arrows). Thirdly (boxes number 3), regime characteristics of the 1951 Geneva Convention and the UNFCCC have been studied (dark blue arrows). In addition, the definition of refugees in the 1951 Geneva Convention and the regional conventions have been examined (yellow dashed line). However, the regime theory is only applied to the two universal Conventions as previously mentioned (green arrows). Therefore, the frame of the regional conventions has a dashed outline. Fourthly box number 4), recommendations for legal recognition have been examined (yellow line). Fifthly (box number 5), the various strategies with regard to acting on climate change (light blue line). Lastly (box number 6), a small holistic case study on the Pacific Islands has been made, because these islands/states “are in serious danger from the ongoing threat of global warming and rising sea levels” and will be affected in the near future (Williams, 2008, p. 515). Finally, the environmental crisis migration operational model has been developed. The orange arrows and the frame of the UNFCCC are therefore in bold. The arrow from the 1951 Geneva

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Convention to the model is a dashed line, because certain elements that are important to this crisis model (e.g. non-refoulement) have been used.

1. Environmentally forced migrants and migration 2. Causes 2. Consequences 3. The 1951 Geneva Convention on Refugees incl. 1967 Protocol 3. The UN Framework for Climate Change Convention 3. Continental treaties: Kampala Convention, Cartagena Declaration & EU directives**

Environmental Crisis Migration Operational Model

to assist states to provide appropriate assistance, protection

developed in a timely coordinated manner This model could be included in a

new protocol (legally recognise this group) 4. Academics and experts advise from literature 6. Case study: Pacific Islands

Figure 4. Research design outline

Framework drivers of migration Regime theory Crisis Management Operational Framework

** Focused on the broader definition of refugees or cross-border displaced persons

5. The variety of strategies

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3.1.1 Unit of analysis and unit of observation

This study consists of three separate units of analysis and observation, as shown in Table 2 below. The first unit of analysis is environmentally forced migrants, which is focused on the different terminologies and definitions, the complexity of environmental change and migration, the causes, the consequences and lastly, a small holistic case study will be applied. The second unit of analysis will focus on both UN Conventions and regional conventions with attention for regime characteristics and refugee or displaced persons definitions. Thirdly, the unit of analysis is focused on the variety of strategies, with a special focus on cross-border migration, which can be included in a new crisis management model.

Table 2. Unit of analysis and unit of observation

Unit of analysis 1

Environmentally forced migrants

Unit of analysis 2 Regimes

Unit of analysis 3 Crisis management Different terminologies The UN 1951 Geneva Regime Adaptation strategies

Environmental and migration nexus The UNFCCC Disaster risk reduction strategies The causes The regional conventions on the broader

definition of refugees and displaced persons, and providing TPS (EU directive)

Legal strategies

The consequences Community and international relocation

and resettlement A small holistic case study on the Pacific

Islands

cross-border migration

Black et al. Framework Regime theory including GEG Crisis Management Operational Framework

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3.1.2 Small holistic case study on the Pacific Islands

In the course of the methodological considerations for this study, an exploratory small holistic case study on the climate change effects on the Pacific Islands has been applied. The aim of the case study was to obtain a “representative sample” and to display “a causal process within the […] case will illustrate some causal factor that is applicable to other (deviant) cases (Seawright & Gerring, 2008, pp. 296-302) The causal process in this case study is that environmental change affects populations and their decision to migrate and become cross-border displaced. The following criteria have been included, namely:

1. environmental change affects populations directly 2. environmental change affects other drivers of migration 3. environmental changes will lead to cross-border migration

4. environmentally forced migrants are in need of international (community) relocation and resettlement

5. those migrants are now without international assistance or (legal) protection 6. this can result in other legal problems regarding, for example, statehood

3.1.3 Justification of research design

Therefore, the chosen research design (inductive, explorative and qualitative) has been used to understand the problem of environmentally forced migrations, the correlation and casualization between environmental change and cross-border displacement, their exclusion in international law, the need for protection and the variety of strategies that could be used before, during and after a phase. In addition, the exploratory case study has assisted the author to “directly observing a social phenomenon in its raw form”, which helped the author to examine the data from literature review in a specific context (Yin, 2003, p. 6). The case study also exemplifies the urgency of legal recognition / protection to this people.

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3.1.4 Operationalisation

The operationalisation presented in Table 3 below provides insight in how concepts are connected to indicators that are used in this research.

Table 3. Operationalisation of the concepts

Concepts Definition Indicators

National interest “the meaning of national interest is survival, the protection of physical, political and cultural identity against encroachments by other nation-states” (Morgenthau, 1951).

The argumentations/ motives of nation states to exclude this group from legal recognition

National security “refers to security of the national interests of the state. States define their national interests in different ways. In most states, these include one or more of the following: protection of territory, protection of citizens, legal order, economic interests, geopolitical interests based on how they view and relate to other countries, ideological values such as democracy, human rights, peace, religious values protection of civilians in other countries, or ideas such as racial segregation” (Schirch, 2016, p. 142)

National governments see this people as a national security threat

Human Security “protecting fundamental freedoms- freedoms that are the essence of life. It means protecting people form critical (severe) and pervasive (widespread) threats and situations. It means using processes that build on people’s strengths and aspirations. It means creating political, social, environmental, economic, military and cultural systems that together give people the building blocks of survival, livelihood and dignity” (UNCHS, 2004, p. 4).

Does the strategies include the seven following principles: People-centred, Comprehensive elements (e.g. include elements such as freedom from fear […] freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity”), Multi-sectoral (state actors, but also NNSAs involved), Context-specific and Prevention-oriented (Schirch, 2016, p. 144). In addition, “universal concern [and] the human security components are independent”(an event is no longer isolated within the borders (e.g. can result in conflict, migration flows) (UNEP, 1994, p. 22).

International law-making

“the "nation-state" as the primary lawmaker; (2) the treaty as the preeminent form of international law; and (3) international law-making as an "off-the-shelf" process that political elites deliberately orchestrate” (Levit, 2007, p. 395).

The establishment of protocols, international treaties

Law – making treaties “stipulate ‘integral obligations’(that is, they have to be performed as such and in their entirety), and they establish a regime towards all the world rather than towards particular parties” (Brolmann, 2005, p. 384).

Conventions with principles, norms and obligations

Bottom-up international law making

“is a soft, unpredictably organic process that generates hard, legal results. Private parties, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and/or mid-level technocrats coalesce around shared, on-the-ground experiences and perceived self-interests, "codifying" norms that at once reflect and condition group practices. Over time, these informal rules embed, often unintentionally, in a more

Decision-making procedure within the UNFCCC or the 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention

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formal legal system and thereby become ‘law’” (Levit, 2007, p. 395).

Top down international law making

“state actors making international law and imposing it on others who may have been quite removed, geographically and politically, from the entire law-making process” (Levit, 2005, p. 126).

Decision-making procedure within the UNFCCC or the 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention

Environmental refugees “are those people wo have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardizes their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life” (Cardy, 1994, p. 2)

How can it be defined?

How many individuals are cross border displaced by effects of climate change?

Environmental migrants “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (Laczko & Aghazarm, 2009, p. 19).

How can it be defined?

How many individuals are cross border displaced by effects of climate change?

Environmentally or climate induced migration

“environmentally induced migration and human security concerns associated with individuals displaced as a result of climatic variability” (Assan & Rosenfeld, 2012, p. 1046).

How many people are displaced by climate change compared to conflict?

Environmental governance

“the system of values, policies and institutions by which a society manages its economic, political and social affairs through interactions within and among the state, civil society and private sector. It is the way a society organizes itself to make and implement decisions – achieving mutual understanding, agreements and action” (EURoAsiaMUN, 2014, p. 6)

Decision-making procedure within the UN Conventions

Climate change “climate change will cause population movement by making certain parts of the world much less viable places to live; by causing food and water supplies to become more unreliable and increasing the frequency and severity of floods and storms” (Brown O. , 2007, p. 9)

Increasing occurrences of climate change disasters

Migration crisis “the complex and often large-scale mobility patterns caused by a crisis which typically involve significant vulnerabilities for individuals and affected communities and generate acute and longer-term migration management challenges. A migration crisis may be sudden or slow in onset, can have natural or man-made causes, and can take place internally or across borders” (IOM, 2012, pp. 2-3)

Temporary or permanent displacement Causes of migration

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3.2 Methods

3.2.1 Data gathering

The qualitative methods techniques (individual case study, desk top and document analysis) are chosen “to map simple and complex relationships, assess correlations and/or make descriptive and causal inferences by analysing large sets of data” (O'Neill, et al., 2013, p. 448). These techniques have been used to obtain comprehensive primary and secondary data. My primary sources consist of speeches of UN officials, UN Conventions, the continental conventions and policy documents. My secondary sources rely on books, journal articles and official UN reports and other reports from institutional actors, such as the IOM Crisis Migration Operational Framework that has been used to develop my own model.

3.2.2 Data exploitation

To address the phenomena of environmentally forced migrants non-legal sources are used. In this view, the thesis research is primarily based on literature review and therefore mainly in research for relevant sources from different scientific fields, such as geography, environmental change, refugee studies, migration studies, natural hazard research, international law studies and studies of internal displacement. For the legal aspects, primarily legal documents from different UN departments have been used. The argumentations why existing UN conventions are insufficient originates from non-legal sources.

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3.3 Research limitation

This study addresses solely environmentally forced migrants that have crossed or intend to cross state borders as a result of climate change and environmental events. People who are displaced internally will not be included in this study, because they are ‘protected’ by the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (OCHA, 2004).

The author has no legal expertise and therefore the legal side of the environmentally crisis migration organisational and operational model, presented in this thesis, is briefly explained. A legal academic could study in future research whether it is legally possible to implement this model within a legal framework.

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Chapter IV Literature review

This literature review summarizes and integrates the theories on the concepts of environmentally forced migrants, environmentally forced migration (e.g. causes and consequences) and the legal recognition gap in international conventions relating to persons that have crossed international borders, climate change. In addition, regional frameworks, various strategies and recommendations for legal recognition by several academics have been described. This literature review must be viewed as a body of knowledge.

This chapter begins with the analysis of the different concepts, terminologies and categories which relate to the effects of climate change on humans and migration, as described in paragraph 4.1. This paragraph also discusses the difficulty of establishing a universal terminology and providing a terminology that will be used throughout this research. In paragraph 4.2. the complexity of environmental effects on migration will be analysed and an overview of the different causes and consequences will be provided. More importantly, the variety of strategies (adaptation, risk assessments etc.) will be described. In paragraph 4.3 the various strategies that states could implement to assist environmentally forced migrants will be analysed and explained. Thereafter, paragraph 4.4 will address the legal aspect of this issue, namely the international conventions relating to the status of refugees, asylum seekers and stateless persons. In addition, the climate change convention will be elaborated on in detail. Furthermore, a brief analysis will be made on the broader definition of refugees and internal displaced persons and their protection status of regional conventions and frameworks. As a result a summary of recommendations of academics will elaborated on. In the last paragraph (4.5) a small holistic case study on the Pacific Islands has been given as an example.

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4.1 Environmental migrants or environmental refugees?

This paragraph will clarify the concept of environmentally forced migrants, which is known as an unsolved problem in the international community today. The main objective of this paragraph is to develop a new concept: environmentally forced migrant. This concept will be used throughout this research. Therefore, an overview of the various concepts and definitions made by experts, academics and international organisations will be provided in subparagraph 4.1.1. This subparagraph also gives a brief conclusion to address the difficulties with the different terminologies. Subparagraph 4.1.2 describes the different kinds of forced displacement and migration related to disaster terminologies. In addition, this subparagraph provides a brief conclusion to address the difficulties with the different terminologies. The subparagraph 4.1.3 provides arguments supporting the idea that this group is still not recognised in international law. The final subparagraph 4.1.4 provides the thesis terminology, which is environmentally-induced migrant, with an applicable and suitable definition.

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4.1.1 Terminologies and definitions of persons affected by environmental change

In 1970s, the issue of environmental change triggering human migration and the term environmental refugees was used for the first time in several speeches of Lester Brown from the World Watch Institute (Assan & Rosenfeld, 2012). However, made a reference Cardy (1994) from the United Nations Environmental Programme (hereafter UNEP) made a reference to his colleague El-Hinnawi, therefore being the first person proposing a definition on environmental refugees in 1985. Nevertheless, many other scholars have developed new terminologies and definitions, which is displayed in Table 4 below. This tabledisplays that each definition refers to certain characteristics that shape this group.

Table 4. Characteristics of definitions of environmental refugees or environmental migrants

Terminology Movement Origin Time period Causes Internal/ cross-border Author and source Environmental refugees Forced to leave Traditional habitat Temporary or permanently Environmental disruptions (man-made and natural) x El-Hinnawi (Cardy, 1994, p. 2) Environmental refugees To seek sanctuary elsewhere No longer gain a secure livelihood in their homeland Semi-permanent or permanent basis

Drought, soil, erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems, together with the associated problems of populations pressures and profound poverty

Many being internally displaced , some may fled their countries Myers (Myers, 2001, p. 609). Environmental migrants Obliged to leave Their lives or living conditions Temporarily or permanently Compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment Move either within their country or broad The IOM (Laczko & Aghazarm, 2009, p. 19) Environmentally displaced people Obliged to leave their usual place of residence Their lives, livelihoods and welfare

x Serious risk as a result of adverse

environmental, ecological or climate processes and events

Displaced UNHCR (Boano, Zetter, & Morris, 2008, p. 8) Internal Displaced Persons Forced or obliged to flee or to leave Their homes or places of habitual residence

x To avoid the effects of human-made disasters Not crossed an international border Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (ECOSOC, 1998, p. 5) Climate Change Migrants Movement is triggered x x In part inclusively, by the effects of climate change

x (Nishimura, 2015, p. 114).

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According to Boano (2008), El-Hinnawi defines three different types of environmental refugees; those as “temporarily dislocated” as a result of man-made or environmental disasters, those that are “permanently displaced” caused by severe environmental changes and those that migrate due to “gradual deterioration of environmental conditions” (Boano, 2008, p. 6). However, the IOM (2009) views this particular group as ‘environmental migrants’ because, as they argue, the term refugee relating to environmental change or climate change is “misleading and could potentially undermine the international legal regime for the protection of refugees” (IOM, 2009, p. 23).

In addition, Jacobson (1988) stresses the importance of categorization rather than defining environmental refugees. He divides these group into three different types: “1) those displaced temporarily because of a local disruption such as an earthquake or avalanche, 2) those who migrate because of environmental degradation that undermines their livelihood or threatens their health [and] 3) those who resettle because land degradation has resulted desertification or because other permanent and untenable changes in their habitat” (Jacobson, 1988, pp. 37-38).

In 2007, Renaud et al. developed a decision making framework in order to understand the migration flows caused by environmental change and to classify individuals who leave or are forced to leave their homes as a result of environmental reasons (see Table 5. “Identifying Categories of Environmental Migrants” below) (Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, & Warner, 2007, p. 31). They have also identified three types of types of environmental migrants; environmentally motivated migrants, environmental refugees and environmentally forced migrants (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011). The division between these three categories was made “by thinking about the situation of a person or group of persons at the point in time when they actually depart their usual place of residence i.e. at the time the flight or migration commences” (Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, & Warner, 2007, p. 31). The first type is environmental refugees “who flee the worst of an environmental impact on a temporary basis” (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011, p. e14). The second type is environmental forced migrants; individuals who migrate, “because of the consequences of loss of ecosystems services” (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011, p. e22). The third type is environmental motivated migrants “who may leave a steadily deteriorating environment in order to pre-empt the worst, [because] there is no emergency nor is it a last resort action to move, but rather it is a situation in which individuals or communities who foresee a continuously deteriorating environment may decide to move in order to avoid further deterioration of their livelihoods” (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi,

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2011, p. e15). They have argued that this group migrates because of socio-economic aspects, which is the dominant factor in their decision making (e.g. every year farmers are confronted with extreme droughts that result in a constant deterioration of their land productivity caused by “land desertification” and will put them more in danger of growing poverty) (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011, p. e15).

Table 5. Identifying the Categories of Environmental Migrants

The Nature of Environmental Degradation

Inherent vulnerability of affected communities/ persons Direct gradual (e.g. land degradation, pollution) Indirect gradual (e.g. sea level rise)

Direct sudden (e.g. flood, typhoon, earthquake) Indirect sudden (e.g. volcanic ash fallout, drought) Type of assistance or help available/ Self-help (skills financial)

Low III III II II

needed expected to cope with the

State assistance Medium III III I-II II

environmental degradation at point

International assistance

High II-III III I-II II

of origin No assistance expected

Very High II II I I-II

I= Environmental refugee II = Environmental Forced migrant III = Environmental Motivated Migrant Source: (Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, & Warner, 2007, p. 31)

However, in 2011, Renaud et al. discussed that the third group must be seen as “environmental emergency migrants” hereby opposed to the table that has been established in 2007. The reason is that the environment becomes the dominant factor in their decision making rather than the economic-socio aspects. Therefore, they describe this group as “people who have to flee because of the swiftness of an environmental event and who to take refuge to save their lives” (e.g. hurricanes) (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011, p. e14). In addition, they further claim that this type of ‘environmental emergency migrants’ also includes individuals who have crossed an international border, but are still unprotected by any international UN Convention. The third type is environmentally forced migrants, which are “people who have to leave in order to avoid the worst of environmental deterioration [and] have may not have a choice to return to their former place of residence due to the physical loss of their land” (e.g. sea level rise) (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011, p. e14). The pressure to migrate or flee their homes or country is less compared to the second type, because the impact of the environmental change is slow-onset. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the environment is the dominant and main factor that triggers this group of people to migrate (Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011). Table 5 displays that the decision to migrate within or to a neighbourhood country is based on the nature of environmental degradation, whether it is sudden or gradual, and “the type of support available […] to the person departing” (e.g. self-help, state assistance,

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international assistance and no assistance expected) (Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, & Warner, 2007, p. 31).

Subparagraph conclusion

The main problem is that the terms as displaced person, migrant and refugee “are often used synonymously and interchangeably, not only in common parlance but also in academic literature and government policy documents” (Gogarty, 2011, p. 169). According to Cardy (1994) one organisation viewsthem as environmental refugees while others view them as environmental migrants or other change the term environmental into climate, as shown above (Cardy, 1994). This also applies for the terms obliged, forced and induced within this subparagraph, which are used indiscriminately and therefore also have effect on the terms environmental and climate. In addition, another problem with the development of these terminologies and definitions is the different perceptions on whether these people have migrated voluntarily or forced (Dun & Gemenne, 2008). This study will be focused on the three different types of environmentally forced migrants, but all will fall under this terminology.

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4.1.2 The different terminologies of climate change related to movement and displacement

As previously described, the different definitions have linked the concepts of environmentally forced migrants with forced migration and displacement to address that these persons are forced to leave their home or country. It is therefore important to address the different forced migration and displacement terminologies related to disasters, which are caused by climate change, because they will become one of the “biggest humanitarian challenges facing States and the international community in the 21st century” (The Nansen Initiative, 2015, p. 6). In addition, the forced displacement will destabilise development, violate human rights and will have impact on security issues (The Nansen Initiative, 2015). However, according to Warner (2010), here is a “lack of definitions for migration caused in part by environmental change and degradations” (Warner K. , 2010, p. 403). This is due to the fact that scholars have observed that environmental change is not the only factor that drives migration, which makes it difficult to identify the causes and consequences of environmentally forced migration and to define the different kinds of “environmental related migration” (Warner K. , 2010, p. 403)

According to the International Association for the Study of Forced Migration defined forced migration in general as:

“the movement of refugees and internally displaced people (those displaced by conflicts) as well as people displaced by natural or environmental disasters, chemic al or nuclear disasters, famine, or development projects” (Hansen, n.d.).

Nevertheless, Baldwin has drawn the attention to the fact that, what he calls ‘climate-induced migration’, describes how “climate refugees [migrate] into areas [which are] already inhabited by people with different cultures, religions and traditions, increasing the potential for conflict”, which will be further explained in paragraph 3.2.3 (Baldwin, 2014, pp. 122-123).

Furthermore, the International Displacement Monitoring Centre (hereafter IDMC) states that displacement can be seen as “a more reactive measure of last resort or a survival response to severe and immediate threats [while] migration is a longer-term strategic decision to move” to an area with improved livelihood conditions (Yonetani, 2015, p. 14). Figure 5 displays displacement (climate change impacts develop weather-related hazards) and migration (climate change impacts increase vulnerability that leads to the decision to migrate) (Yonetani, 2015).

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Figure 5. Climate change, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have impact on (forced) displacement of populations

Reiffers (2017) observes that forced migration and displacement exist of three types:

1. “conflict-induced migration”, which includes individuals that were forced to leave and have fled their homes (by the cause of conflict or “prosecution on the grounds of nationality” for example).

2. “development-induced displacement” includes individuals that are obliged to leave their homes and displace themselves somewhere else as a result of national or international projects and policies that are focused to improve the development in that particular region.

3. “disaster-induced displacement” includes individuals that are displaced as a consequence of environmental change, man-made disasters or national disasters (e.g. earthquakes) (Reiffers, 2017, p. 372). The Platform of Disaster Displacement points out that these individuals end up in situations where they are often unprotected to the natural disaster and that “they are too vulnerable and lack the resilience to withstand the impact” of the disaster (Platform on Disaster Displacement, 2017). However, the IOM (2013) has described the third group as “environmentally induced migration” as

“[individuals] who predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (Warner, et al., 2013, p. 10).

The importance of universal legal recognition of environmentally forced migrants from a crisis management perspective