Development aid : a structural change or simply delaying the process?

University*of*Amsterdam!

Graduate(School(of(Social(Sciences!

!

!

!

Development!Aid:$a$structural!change'

or#simply'delaying'the'process?""!

!

! ! ! ! ! Jonas!Hoving! 5974828! ! Master!Thesis!Political!Science!! International!Relations!2013@2014! Research!Project:!The!Political!Economy!of!Conflict! ! Supervisor:!dhr.!prof.!dr.!Geoffrey!R.D.!Underhill! Second!reader:!dhr.!prof.!dr.!Brian!M.!Burgoon! !

Contents'

1.! INTRODUCTION+...+2! 2.! LITERATURE+REVIEW+...+8! 2.1! AID!EFFECTIVENESS!...!8! 2.2! WHY!IS!AID!GIVEN?!...!9! 2.3! DIFFERENT!AID!STRATEGIES!...!12!

2.4! DIFFERENT!AID!METHODS:!BILATERAL!VS.!MULTILATERAL!AND!PROJECT!VS.!PROGRAMME!...!16!

2.5! CIVIL!CONFLICT:!ONSET!DEBATE!...!19!

2.6! RELATION!AID!&!CONFLICT!...!22!

3.! THEORETICAL+FRAMEWORK+&+HYPOTHESES+...+27! 4.! METHODOLOGY+...+31! 4.1! DATASET!AND!CASE!SELECTION!...!31! 4.2! DEPENDENT!VARIABLE!...!32! 4.3! INDEPENDENT!VARIABLE!...!33! 4.4! MEDIATING!VARIABLE!...!36! 4.5! CONTROL!VARIABLES!...!37! 4.6! RESEARCH!METHOD!...!39! 5.! RESULTS+...+41! Dataset&analysis&...&41! Logistic&regression&...&45! Opposing&cases&...&49! 6.! CONCLUSION+...+52! 7.! REFERENCES+...+56! APPENDIX+A.+...+59! ! ! !

! ! “Development!is!about!transforming!the!lives!of!people,!not!just!transforming!economies”! Joseph!E.!Stiglitz!@!Making!Globalization!Work! ! !

1. Introduction+

+

+

Different!studies!suggest!a!causal!relation!between!low!GDP!per!capita!and!a!high!risk!of! civil! conflict! (Collier! and! Hoeffler! 2004)! (Fearon! and! Laitin! 2003)! (Collier! &! Hoeffler! and! Rohner!2006).!In!other!words,!countries!that!face!a!high!poverty!level!also!have!a!higher!risk! of!experiencing!civil!conflict.!Furthermore!these!countries!will!also!be!more!likely!to!receive! some! form! of! development! aid! in! order! to! help! them! fight! the! poverty! they! experience.! Given! these! findings! a)! the! relation! between! poverty! and! chances! on! civil! conflict! b)! the! likelihood! of! receiving! developing! aid! if! facing! poverty! and! c)! knowing! the! impact! civil! conflict!has!on!the!lives!of!people!we!should!be!thinking!about!the!dynamics!between!these! events!and!see!if!they!are!best.!If!development!aid!is!already!being!allocated!it!will!make! sense!to!optimize!its!effects!and!try!to!actively!prevent!civil!conflict.!Is!development!aid!able! to!make!a!real!difference!within!developing!countries!facing!a!conflict!situation?!Therefore! within! this! thesis! the! goal! is! to! find! an! answer! for! the! following! research! question! concerning!the!relation!between!development!aid!and!civil!conflict!recurrence:!!

Is! there! a! relationship! between! contrasting! aid! strategies! in! post@conflict! developing! countries! and! the! potential! for! a! recurrence! of! conflict?! In! short,! do! variations! in! aid! effectiveness! affect! the! chances! of! conflict! recurrence?! In! turn,! these! questions! raise! important! issues! related! to! the! original! causes! of! the! conflict.! Is! there! a! relationship! between! the! ‘grievance’! and/or! ‘opportunity’! origins! of! conflict! and! the! type! of! aid! that! proves!most!effective!in!preventing!recurrence!in!the!aftermath!of!conflict?!In!other!words,! should!post@conflict!aid!programs!be!tailored!to!the!pre@conflict!context?!!

Within! the! literature! review,! this! thesis! will! address! important! concepts! relating! to! the! research!question.!First!we!will!elaborate!on!aid!effectiveness!when!it!comes!to!different! development!strategies,!what!is!the!best!way!to!measure!if!an!aid!strategy!is!effective!and! obtains! its! goals?! Esther! Duflo! et! al.! (2013)! argue! the! importance! for! social! sciences! to! conduct!randomized!evaluations!of!different!aid!projects!and!programs!in!order!to!deal!with! the! obstruction! felt! by! finding! possible! negative! outcomes! on! an! initial! positive! action.! Another! important! issue! to! keep! in! mind,! when! we! focus! on! the! measurement! of! aid! effectiveness,!is!brought!up!by!Dani!Rodrik!(2009).!He!argues!that!in!the!case!of!economic! development! every! country! had! a! different! path! towards! success,! there! is! not! one! successful! method! towards! economic! prosperity.! Therefore! when! focusing! on! a! possible! relation!between!different!aid!strategies!and!conflict!recurrence!we!need!to!keep!in!mind! that!possible!effects!could!be!country!specific.!! Since!development!aid!strategies!form!an!important!concept!in!the!research!of!this!thesis!it! will!be!important!to!elaborate!on!several!aspects!concerning!aid.!Development!aid!could!be! seen!as!a!three@stage!process.!First!there!needs!to!be!an!incentive!to!provide!aid,!second! the!donor!will!develop!a!strategy!in!order!to!obtain!the!goals!following!the!incentive!and! finally!there!will!be!a!‘vehicle’!to!allocate!the!aid.!In!general,!the!overall!goal!of!development! aid! could! be! best! described! as! creating! a! stable! world! by! preventing! future! conflict! and! stimulating!economic!growth!in!order!to!guarantee!a!basic!level!of!human!living!conditions! for!all.!! Balla!and!Reinhardt!(2008)!argue!that!the!motivation!to!provide!aid!is!formed!by!a!complex! calculus!based!on!three!incentives.!These!incentives!are!described!as!strategic,!altruistic!and! former!colonial!ties!between!donor!and!recipient.!Important!difference!between!the!diverse! incentives!is!their!focus!towards!a!society.!Strategic!incentives!have!a!top!down!focus!since! there!is!always!an!emphasis!on!possible!benefits!for!the!donor,!these!could!be!for!example! on!a!security!or!economic!level.!By!focusing!on!the!economy!or!government!of!a!recipient’s! country,! the! donor! is! trying! to! create! stability! and! stimulate! economic! development.! Altruism! and! former! colonial! ties! fit! better! within! a! feeling! of! responsibility! towards! the! recipient’s! countries! inhabitants! and! their! wellbeing.! (Balla! and! Reinhardt! 2008)! (Riddell!

2007)!These!differences!in!motivation!lead!to!diverse!development!aid!strategies.!Based!on! this!sense!of!responsibility!towards!the!recipient,!a!donor!is!more!likely!to!focus!on!direct! poverty!relief!instead!of!economic!stimulation!or!government!restructuring.!During!the!late! 70s! this! strategy! became! popular,! and! the! bottom! poor! were! assisted! by! project@based! development!aid.!In!the!90s!this!focus!on!poverty!relief!finds!a!continuation!in!a!more!broad! governance!focused!aid!strategy!stimulating!both!the!economy!as!improving!a!basic!level!of! human!capital!(de!Haan!2009).!Compared!to!other!strategies!this!governance!focused!aid! strategy!is!working!on!different!levels!within!a!recipient’s!society!in!order!to!create!both!a! structural!change!as!some!direct!effects,!it!is!more!program@based!then!project@based.!! Although! different! aid! strategies! are! designed! around! diverse! motivations,! in! general! we! could!argue!there!has!always!been!a!strategic!element!in!the!allocation!of!development!aid! by! Western! donors.! Directly! after! the! Second! World! War! the! focus! was! on! rebuilding! damaged!states!and!stimulate!economic!growth!based!on!a!liberal!economic!theory!in!order! to!prevent!the!USSR!to!extend!their!influence!in!Europe.!Afterwards!during!the!Cold!War! the! incentive! to! provide! aid! had! not! changed,! main! focus! was! still! on! stimulating! liberal! democracies!with!open!markets!in!order!to!restrict!the!power!of!the!USSR.!And!still,!in!the! contemporary!era,!there!are!strategic!motivations!to!provide!aid.!These!could!be!focused!on! preventing!terrorist!breeding!grounds!or!simple!stimulating!economies!in!order!to!prepare! them!to!actively!become!part!of!a!global!world!market.!Although!there!has!always!been!a! strategic!element!when!the!allocation!of!aid!is!concerned,!the!other!incentives!mentioned! by! Balla! and! Reinhardt! (2008)! have! played! an! important! role! in! the! creation! of! diverse! development!aid!strategies.!!

As!stated!before,!main!goal!for!the!allocation!of!development!aid!is!the!creation!of!a!stable! world.! A! focus! on! the! relation! between! development! aid! and! civil! conflict! is! therefore! essential!since!there!is!a)!a!relation!between!poverty!and!a!higher!risk!on!civil!conflict!and!b)! an!enormous!amount!of!Official!Development!Aid!flowing!from!donors!to!recipients!every!

year.1_{!The!overall!idea!is!that!development!aid!has!a!negative!effect!on!conflict!duration!and!}

the!possible!outbreak!of!civil!conflict.!(Savun!and!Tirone!2011)!(de!Ree!and!Nillesen!2009)! Since! there! are! several! different! aid! strategies! and! diverse! civil! conflict! onsets! is! will! be! interesting!to!specify!the!negative!effect!development!aid!has!on!civil!conflict.!Is!it!possible! to! find! if! the! effect! of! certain! aid! strategies! is! stronger! within! particular! civil! conflict! situations!then!others?!When!relating!towards!the!diverse!civil!conflict!situations!we!focus! on!the!onset!debate!within!the!literature!making!a!difference!between!opportunity@based! civil!conflict!and!grievance@based!civil!conflict.!The!first!sees!a!conflict!start!as!a!convergence! of!different!elements!which!create!an!opportunity!for!conflict!(Fearon!&!Laitin!2003)!(Collier! et!al.!2006)!and!the!second!argues!that!the!start!of!a!civil!conflict!is!the!result!of!an!eruption! of! grievances! caused! by! horizontal! inequalities! between! diverse! ethnical! groups! within! a! society!(Cederman!et!al.!2013).!The!assumption!within!this!thesis!is!that!development!aid! with!a!focus!on!improving!human!capital,!by!both!focussing!on!short@term!poverty!relief!and! long@term!structural!change,!will!be!better!in!addressing!the!deeper!horizontal!inequalities! within!a!society.!Implicating!that,!if!development!aid!is!focused!on!improving!human!capital,! the! negative! effect! on! the! outbreak! or! duration! of! civil! conflict! will! be! stronger! when! allocated! in! a! civil! conflict! situation! with! a! grievance@based! onset.! Likewise,! if! a! development!aid!strategy!is!focussed!on!stimulating!the!economy!or!the!government!of!a! recipient’s! country,! the! assumption! is! that! the! negative! effect! on! conflict! outbreak! and! duration!will!be!stronger!when!applied!in!an!opportunity@based!conflict!situation!since!it!will! provide!the!government!with!funds!to!control!for!the!different!elements!that!could!lead!to! conflict.!

These!assumptions!are!further!conceptualised!in!four!different!hypotheses!focussing!on!the! dynamics! between! different! development! aid! strategies! and! civil! conflict! recurrence.! The! overall!argument!is!that!development!aid!will!have!a!negative!effect!on!conflict!recurrence! since! it! will! give! a! government! the! opportunity! to! a)! improve! government! institutions! in! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

order! control! for! potential! rebels! and! b)! try! to! reduce! some! of! the! most! demanding! inequalities!that!are!being!faced!by!a!society.!Also,!when!focussed!on!the!broader!society,!it! could! have! a! more! structural! effect! on! reducing! inequalities! between! diverse! (ethnical)! groups!within!a!society.!Either!way!the!assumption!is!that!development!aid!has!a!negative! effect!on!civil!conflict,!both!on!the!duration!and!the!possible!start!of!conflict.!This!effect!will! be! stronger! when! the! amount! of! development! aid! entering! a! country! is! stable! and! also! when!it!experiences!more!non@conflict!time!to!get!settled!and!make!a!difference.!Therefore! hypothesis!1!argues!that!stable!levels!of!development!aid!will!have!a!negative!effect!on!civil! conflict! recurrence! and! hypothesis! 4! argues! that! more! non@conflict! years! will! lead! to! less! recurrence.!The!remaining!two!hypotheses!take!into!account!the!mediating!effect!of!initial! conflict!onset.!Based!on!the!findings!that!there!are!diverse!civil!conflict!onsets,!related!to! different!elements!within!a!society,!the!general!assumption!is!that!not!all!strategies!will!be! equally!effective!in!reducing!all!types!of!conflict.!Hence!hypotheses!2!argues!that!within!an! opportunity@based! post@conflict! situation! the! chances! on! civil! conflict! are! reduced! when! government!focused!development!aid!is!provided.!This!type!of!aid!will!offer!the!government! with!the!tools!to!control!for!elements!that!will!lead!to!this!type!of!civil!war.!Consequently! the! focus! of! hypothesis! 3! is! on! the! other! type! of! civil! conflict! onset,! an! inequality@based! onset,!and!argues!that!within!this!type!of!onset!the!negative!effect!of!development!aid!on! conflict!recurrence!will!be!stronger!when!focused!on!human!capital.!.!!!

In! order! find! an! answer! to! the! research! question! within! this! thesis! and! test! the! diverse! hypotheses,! a! dataset! has! been! constructed! in! order! to! examine! the! possible! relation! between! development! aid! and! civil! conflict! recurrence.! In! order! to! do! so,! the! dataset! contains!a!list!of!civil!conflicts!based!on!the!UCDP/PRIO!Armed!Conflict!Dataset!version!4@ 2013.! Diverse! statistical! analysis! will! be! used! in! order! to! determine! if! there! is! a! relation! between! the! dependent! variable! ‘conflict_recurrence’! and! diverse! independent! variables! concerning!different!aid!strategies.!In!order!to!come!to!these!analyses!the!structure!of!this! thesis! is! as! follows.! First,! within! the! literature! review,! we! will! examine! the! different! concepts!relating!to!the!possible!relation!between!development!aid!and!conflict!recurrence.! In!the!second!part!the!theoretical!argument!is!made!based!on!the!literature!review!followed! by! the! presentation! of! the! four! mentioned! hypotheses.! The! third! part! of! this! thesis! will!

elaborate!on!the!methodology!used!in!order!to!find!an!answer!to!research!question!and!to! control! for! the! hypotheses.! In! the! final! part! the! results! are! presented! followed! by! a! few! concluding!remarks.!

2. Literature+review+ +

2.1 !Aid!effectiveness!

What!is!the!effect!of!aid!and!how!could!we!measure!the!possible!effectiveness!of!aid?!Do! we!look!at!short@term!effects!or!should!one!focus!on!a!long@term!structural!change?!This! thesis! on! aid! effectiveness! poses! the! following! simple! question:! “Does& development& aid& make& a& real,& lasting& and& overall& difference& to& poor& people& in& poor& countries,& and& to& poor& economies?& (Riddell! 2007,! p.! 213)! This! question! is! then! applied! directly! to! post@conflict! situations! to! determine! the! relationship! of! degrees! of! aid! effectiveness! to! possible! recurrence.!!

According!to!Doucouliagos!and!Paldam!(2009),!the!literature!tells!us!that!after!forty!years!of! development!assistance,!“Development&aid&is&an&activity&that&has&proved&difficult&to&do&right! (Doucouliagos!and!Paldam!2009,!p.!457).”!They!argue!part!of!the!problem!is!not!only!the! fact! that! it! is! hard! to! be! effective! but! also! that! most! researchers! might! feel! disturbed! by! concluding! something! negative! on! an! initially! positive! action.! So! in! retrospect! they! argue! that!we!do!not!know!if!development!aid!has!been!effective!because!scholars!are!obstructed! by!the!thought!of!finding!undesirable!results.!!

Esther!Duflo!et!al.!(2013)!acknowledges!this!problem!and!suggests!that!we!must!focus!more! on! randomized! evaluation! when! it! comes! to! development! studies! and! social! sciences! in! general.!Her!article!“The&miracle&of&microfinance?&Evidence&from&a&randomized&evaluation”! (Duflo!et!al.!2013)!is!a!leading!example!of!these!thoughts.!Within!this!research!Duflo!et!al.! (2013)!conduct!a!randomized!evaluation!on!the!effectiveness!of!micro@finance!projects!in! India.!They!set!up!an!experiment!in!order!to!test!the!effectiveness!of!different!projects.!By! doing!this!they!are!able!to!conduct!a!randomized!evaluation!on!the!effectiveness!of!micro@ finance,!instead!of!falling!into!the!debate!between!different!theoretical!frameworks!on!how! aid!should!be!given!(Duflo!et.!al.!2013).!Within!this!thesis!we!will!try!to!work!along!this!line! of!reasoning,!focus!on!the!facts!in!order!to!be!as!objective!as!possible.!! The!argument!of!Duflo!et!al.!(2013)!is!especially!important!when!we!compare!it!to!the!work! of!Dani!Rodrik!(2007)!on!pathways!to!development.!He!argues!there!is!no!one!set!of!tools!

for!a!government!to!develop!its!society;!we!need!to!look!for!the!country!specific!solution!in! order!to!come!to!the!most!effective!development.!(Rodrik!2007)!Within!this!thesis!the!goal! is! to! find! out! more! on! the! effectiveness! of! different! aid! forms! in! diverse! post@conflict! situations.!To!measure!aid!effectiveness!we!will!focus!on!a!straightforward!variable!–!do!we! find!conflict!recurrence!within!the!post@conflict!situation?!Conflict!recurrence!is!seen!here! as! a! continuation! of! the! original! conflict! based! on! the! original! causes.! Research! will! be! conducted! in! order! to! see! if! certain! forms! of! aid! are! more! effective! than! others! in! preventing! civil! conflict! recurrence.! Before! focusing! on! the! effectiveness! of! aid! in! a! post@ conflict! situation! we! first! examine! why! development! aid! is! given! in! the! first! place.! What! motivates! donors! to! commit! 0,7%! of! the! richest! countries! GNP! to! Official! Development! Assistance?2!In!the!following!paragraph!the!focus!is!on!this!why!question!and!it!will!try!to! clarify! different! motivations! for! donors! to! provide! aid.! Afterwards! the! focus! will! be! on! different! aid! strategies! and! how! these! are! related! to! the! diverse! motivations! and! more! importantly!to!different!conflict!onsets.!!

2.2 !Why!is!aid!given?!!

The! precise! reason! for! donors! to! spend! a! substantial! amount! of! government! funds! on! development! aid! in! other! countries! is! unclear.! Altruism! would! perhaps! be! the! most! desirable!explanation!but!in!general!the!motives!to!provide!aid!are!less!idealistic!and!more! complex.!Since!the!motivation!to!allocate!aid!will!form!an!important!steering!element!in!the! final! aid! strategy,! we! need! to! distinguish! different! motivations! for! donors.! These! motivations!provide!a!better!insight!in!the!context!of!an!aid!strategy,!when!understanding! more!of!the!context!we!will!be!better!able!to!argue!which!variables!are!best!used!in!order!to! measure!the!effectiveness!of!different!aid!strategies.!!

Although! altruism! would! form! the! most! appealing! incentive,! Balla! and! Reinhardt! (2009)! point!out!there!is!often!a!complex!calculus!behind!the!motivation!for!a!donor!to!provide! development! aid! (Balla! and! Reinhardt! 2009).!They! consider! a! donor’s! incentive! to! be! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

stimulated!by!a!mixture!of!three!different!elements!that!together!form!a!donor’s!motivation.! The! distinction! they! make! is! between! altruism,! strategic! considerations! and! potentially! former!colonial!ties.!Different!aid!strategies!are!based!on!different!combinations!of!these! incentives,! we! will! elaborate! on! these! aid! strategies! in! the! following! paragraph! but! first! focus!on!the!three!elements!described!by!Balla!and!Reinhardt!(2009).!!

To!start!with!the!strategic!considerations,!Balla!and!Reinhardt!(2009)!stipulate!nine!strategic! motivations!for!giving!aid,!which!could!be!divided!over!three!different!categories.!First!there! are! conflict! related! motivations,! main! emphasise! here! is! to! control! armed! conflict! in! countries! that! are! important! for! the! donor.! This! might! be! because! it! concerns! a! neighbouring! country! or! due! to! commercial! interests! of! the! donor! in! a! recipient! country.! Second!there!are!economic!reasons!for!a!donor!to!provide!aid,!possible!economic!benefits! for!the!donor!being!the!main!incentive!here.!These!benefits!for!example!consist!out!of!the! access!to!natural!resources!or!potential!benefits!that!national!companies!might!have!in!the! recipient!countries.!Political!motivations!are!the!third!group!and!could!involve!getting!the! recipients! support! within! the! UN! council! or! for! example! to! empower! sympathizing! governments.!(Balla!and!Reinhardt!2009)!!

Roger!Riddell!(2007)!also!focuses!on!different!motives!for!donors!to!allocate!aid.!Most!of! them! fit! within! the! three! incentives! mentioned! by! Balla! and! Reinhardt! but! Riddell! elaborates!further!on!the!concept!of!altruism.!First!he!argues!there!is!something!that!is!best! described! as! a! ‘solidarity& based& motivation’;! the! donor! is! willing! to! help! the! recipient! to! achieve!their!development!goals!or!to!address!their!emergency!needs.!(Riddell!2007,!p.!91)! Second,!and!here!altruism!partially!combines!with!the!prior!mentioned!political!motivation;! he!argues!that!a!donation!is!based!on!‘policy&performance’.!For!example,!preceding!research! stipulates! that! democratic! recipients! receive! more! aid! from! democratic! donors! then! non@ democratic!recipients!(de!Haan!2009,!p.!58).!And!even!more!specific;!donors!tend!to!“base& aidHgiving&decisions&on&the&human&rights&records&of&recipient&governments,&in&particular&by& reducing& or& halting& completely& the& flow& of& aid& to& countries& whose& record& on& basic& human& rights&they&assess&as&seriously&deficient.”!(Riddell!2007,!p.!92)!&!

The!last!element!described!by!Balla!and!Reinhardt!(2009),!concerning!a!donor’s!motivation,! is!the!existence!of!former!colonial!ties!between!a!donor!and!recipient.!Since!the!end!of!the! Second!World!War!there!had!been!a!wave!of!decolonization,!most!of!the!former!empires! kept! close! ties! with! their! colonies.! This! stimulated! the! former! to! contribute! to! the! development!in!these!colonies,!partially!out!of!self@interest!to!preserve!existing!economic! ties! and! partially! because! they! felt! an! obligation! towards! these! countries! to! help! them! become!independent.!So!both!the!altruistic!as!the!colonial!incentive!could!be!described!as! based!on!a!feeling!of!‘responsibility’!towards!the!recipient’s!country!inhabitants!and!their! wellbeing,!but!as!mentioned,!in!these!incentives!there!is!also!always!a!strategic!element.!! A! final! point! concerning! these! different! incentives! is! their! various! ways! in! which! these! different! aid! strategies! conceptualise! a! developing! society.! Strategic! incentives! are! best! described!as!having!a!top!down!perception!of!a!society.!A!donor’s!incentive!is!with!overall! stability! within! the! recipient’s! country! in! order! to! create! a! benefit! on! an! economic! or! security!level!for!themselves.!On!the!other!hand,!altruism!and!former!colonial!ties!could!be! best! described! as! a! bottom! up! approach! of! society! since! it! relates! more! to! a! feeling! of! ‘responsibility’!for!the!countries!inhabitants.!Therefore!the!motivation!to!provide!aid!will!be! more!focused!around!the!needs!and!humanitarian!concerns!of!individuals!within!a!society.! To! conclude! it! will! be! hard! to! determine! the! exact! combination! out! of! which! a! donor’s! motivation!exits,!even!if!we!know!the!different!incentives.!There!is!always!a!strategic!part!to! preserve!one!of!the!interests!of!the!donor!but!also,!part!of!the!motivation!will!be!out!of!a! feeling!of!responsibility!towards!the!recipient’s!country.!Based!on!logical!reasoning!we!are! able!to!argue!that!some!incentives!are!more!likely!to!stimulate!certain!aid!strategies!then! others,!especially!when!we!focus!on!strategic!motivations.!It!is!not!the!aim!of!this!thesis!to! validate!these!links,!but!we!can!use!them!to!understand!more!of!the!context!of!different!aid! strategies.!For!example,!development!aid!focused!primarily!on!stimulating!an!economy!or! strengthening! government! institutions! will! be! predominantly! motivated! out! of! strategic! considerations.! By! stimulating! the! development! of! a! recipient! country! there! will! be! economic!or!security!related!benefits!for!the!donor.!Alternatively!development!aid!with!a! more!specific!focus!on!humanitarian!concerns!will!be!most!likely!motivated!out!of!a!feeling!

of! responsibility.! However! it! is! important! to! keep! in! mind! that! different! motivations! for! providing!development!aid!can!well!fit!together!in!the!same!aid!strategy.!For!example!both! from!a!humanitarian!as!from!a!strategic!point!of!view!we!could!argue!it!will!be!beneficial!to! provide! a! government! with! more! funds! in! order! to! prevent! rebels! within! that! country! to! (re)@start!a!conflict.!In!the!following!paragraph!this!thesis!elaborates!further!on!different!aid! strategies!and!explains!their!objectives!in!a!broader!context!in!order!to!gain!more!insight! and! consequently! will! be! better! able! to! determine! objective! variables! to! measure! aid! effectiveness.!

2.3 !Different!aid!strategies!

Over! time! there! has! been! a! wide! range! of! different! aid! strategies! varying! in! tactics,! motivation!and!methods.!In!the!aftermath!of!the!Second!World!War!we!saw!large!amounts! of!development!aid!flowing!from!the!United!States!towards!different!countries!in!Europe! with!the!purpose!to!boost!their!economies!and!keep!them!from!the!becoming!communist.! Contemporary!development!strategies!are!much!more!focused!on!creating!a!minimal!level! of!living!conditions!for!all,!something!that!for!example!becomes!clear!when!we!look!at!the! Millennium! Development! Goals! (MDGs).! The! main! emphasis! of! these! goals! is! to! reduce! extreme! poverty,! achieve! universal! primary! education! and! create! better! overall! public! health! by! combating! HIV/AIDS! and! other! diseases,! improve! maternal! health! and! reduce! child!mortality3.!In!sum!these!goals!have!the!purpose!of!achieving!a!minimal!level!of!living! conditions!for!the!poor!and!vulnerable!within!this!world.!Additionally!the!focus!on!minimal! living!conditions!comes!forward!in!the!attention!for!spill!over!effects!of!civil!conflict,!effects! experienced! by! countries! neighbouring! a! civil! conflict.! These! effects! lower! the! level! of! economic!growth!in!neighbouring!countries!and!potentially!increase!the!risk!on!conflict!in! these!countries.!(Collier!et!al.!2003,!p.!33@35)!Between!the!idea!of!‘kick!starting’!an!economy! on!the!one!hand!and!the!more!specific!focus!on!different!aspects!of!human!living!conditions! on!the!other,!we!notice!some!similarities!but!also!certain!significant!differences.!When!we! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !

focus!on!the!history!of!aid!strategies,!the!origins!of!these!differences!become!clear!when!we! examine!them!from!a!broader!perspective.!Also!it!becomes!clear!that!aid!strategies!do!not! disappear!over!time;!some!of!the!discussed!aid!strategies!are!already!being!used!since!mid@ 20th_{!century.!The!underlying!motivations!for!aid!strategies,!being!strategic!or!more!focused!}

on! a! feeling! of! responsibility,! do! not! necessarily! exclude! another! and! stay! the! same! over! time! but! we! notice! that! strategies! have! been! evolving! in! order! to! deal! with! new! developments.!!

Directly! after! the! Second! World! War,! under! the! influence! of! the! Marshall@plan,! the! emphasis!of!development!aid!was!on!rebuilding!countries!and!stimulating!economic!growth.! The! idea! that! economic! prosperity,! brought! by! the! Marshall! Plan,! would! strengthen! the! internal!stability!of!countries!and!thus!contribute!to!security!objectives!of!both!recipients!as! the!donor!country!fits!the!earlier!mentioned!strategic!incentive.!There!was!a!strong!believe! in! liberal! economic! theory! and! the! general! idea! was! to! ‘kick! start’! an! economy! by! authorizing!large!aid!flows!into!a!recipients!country!economy.!(de!Haan!2009,!p.!69)!In!the! 60s!and!70s,!under!influence!of!the!success!of!the!Marshall@plan,!this!strategy!was!taken! outside!Europe!to!other!developing!countries,!most!of!them!being!previously!decolonised.! The! motivation! for! the! allocation! of! aid! would! be! partly! strategic,! in! order! to! preserve! donor’s! economic! interests! and! to! steer! a! newly! independent! country! towards! a! liberal! democracy.!But!also!former!colonial!ties!must!have!played!a!major!role!in!the!popularity!of! this!aid!strategy.!However!dominant!strategy!was!still!focused!on!‘kick!starting’!economies! in! order! to! stimulate! growth,! which! eventually! would! benefit! all! within! a! country! and! prepare!their!economies!for!a!role!within!the!global!liberal!economy.!Unfortunately,!under! the!influence!of!different!economic!crises!in!the!70s!and!a!diverse!spectrum!of!government! structures!within!recipient!countries,!results!stay!out!for!the!bottom!poor.!Their!situation!is! becoming! worse! and! the! focus! of! development! aid! strategies! is! shifting! towards! direct! poverty! reduction! instead! of! stimulating! growth.! Development! is! provided! more! on! a! project@based!ground!in!which!you!could!directly!target!the!bottom!poor.!(de!Haan!2009,!p.! 72).!!

Nevertheless,! since! the! Cold! War! was! still! on! going,! main! motivation! for! Western! donors! providing!aid!in!those!decades!has!always!been!strategic.!However!the!strategy!being!used! in!order!to!allocate!aid!had!changed!under!the!influence!of!prior!experience!and!a!changed! setting.!Under!the!threat!of!communism,!Western!donors!kept!focusing!on!promoting!neo@ liberal!democracy!and!an!open!international!market!in!order!to!create!a!more!stable!world.! The! Structural! Adjustment! Program! (SAP),! which! became! popular! with! donors! in! the! 80s,! forms!a!good!example!of!this!evolved,!strategic!motivated,!strategy!with!both!political!and! economic! implications.! Instead! of! a! direct! focus! on! stimulating! the! economy! or! targeting! smaller! projects,! recipients! needed! to! stimulate! growth! by! structurally! adopting! policies! that!the!donor!agreed!upon!and!that!would!change!government!structures!and!make!aid! more!effective!in!stimulating!growth.!Main!donors,!within!Western!influence,!like!the!World! Bank! and! IMF! were! all! stimulating! a! neo@liberal! thought! including! a! strong! emphasize! on! democracy!promotion.!This!resulted!for!recipient!countries!in!a!need!for!opening!up!their! markets! in! order! to! stimulate! growth! and! closer! relations! with! the! Western! developed! world.!(Riddell!2007,!p.!35@36)!!!

With!the!end!of!the!Cold!War!there!are!some!key!events!that!have!a!significant!influence!on! leading! aid! strategies.! Francis! Fukuyama! argues! the! world! had! come! to! an! end! in! which! Western!liberal!democracy!has!proven!to!be!the!endpoint,!no!longer!would!we!deal!with! competing!ideologies.!(Fukuyama!1992)!This!meant!there!was!no!longer!a!strong!incentive! for!the!West!to!promote!economic!liberalism!and!consequently!it!created!space!to!become! critical! on! this! specific! form! of! aid! strategy.! From! different! positions! people! started! to! question!if!the!large!amounts!of!aid!in!previous!decades!had!not!made!developing!countries! too!dependent.!Instead!of!creating!space!for!them!to!develop,!it!made!them!dependent!on! aid!money!and!stopped!them!from!developing!revenues!on!their!own.!(de!Haan!2009,!p.!78@ 79)!The!end!of!the!Cold!War!also!stimulated!various!independence!conflicts!and!on!top!of! that! the! international! community! consecutively! failed! to! intervene! in! the! conflicts! in! Somalia,! Rwanda! and! Yugoslavia.! So! with! the! need! to! provide! aid! in! order! to! support! a! sympathizing!government!overboard!and!a!wave!of!out!breaking!conflicts,!focus!returned!at! the!reduction!of!poverty!for!the!bottom!poor.!They!were!the!main!victims!of!the!different! wars!during!the!90s!and!in!need!of!development!aid,!therefore!motivation!was!mostly!part!

of!a!feeling!of!responsibility.!And!although!overall!strategies!had!a!main!focus!on!improving! a!basic!level!of!human!capital,!there!was!still!a!need!for!strategic!focused!aid!strategies!in! order!to!achieve!these!goals.!Different!wars!during!this!decade!made!the!concept!of!spill! over!effects!concrete!for!regions!surrounding!failed!states.!Those!regions!required!a!more! systematic!and!structural!approach!in!development!strategies!in!order!for!donors!to!ensure! the! basic! human! capital! level! for! the! inhabitants! of! those! regions! by! preventing! the! spill! over!effects!to!turn!into!actually!conflict.!!

So! development! strategies! had! learned! from! their! past! and! instead! of! ‘kick! starting’! the! economy,! trying! to! reduce! poverty! on! a! project! based! scale! or! as! in! the! 80s! try! to! restructure! government! policies! with! the! SAPs,! development! aid! close! to! the! new! millennium! tried! to! combine! these! elements! in! one! strategy.! Arjan! de! Haan! argues! the! following:!“the&major&change&in&development&thinking&during&the&1990s&was&the&increasing& attention&to&the&role&of&institutions,&or&governance,&in&development&thinking”&(de!Haan!2009,! p.!80)!This!new!governance!approach!had!both!a!focus!on!the!economic!growth!as!a!tool!for! poverty! reduction! but! also! recognizes! important! aspects! of! basic! needs! in! human! living! conditions!as!health,!education!and!poverty!reduction!in!order!to!establish!this!economic! growth.!(de!Haan!2009,!p.!81)!!

Since!the!start!of!the!new!millennium,!this!governance!focus!in!development!aid!strategy!is! still!predominant.!A!broad!approach!in!which!there!is!both!a!focus!on!economic!growth!as! on! basic! living! conditions! motivated! mainly! by! a! feeling! of! responsibility! and! strategic! incentives.! During! this! period! one! of! the! main! threats! for! economic! growth! and! human! living!conditions!has!been!conflict!and!the!spill!over!effects!of!conflict!in!the!region.!This!has! led!to!some!structural!changes!in!the!strategies!used!in!order!to!create!development!within! recipient! countries.! One! of! those! changes! is! a! shift! in! initiative! for! the! allocation! of! aid.! Previously! the! donor! was! in! charge! of! the! process! of! allocation! but! in! the! contemporary! world,! aid! ownership! often! lies! with! the! recipient! government! due! to! their! extending! knowledge! on! local! needs.! They! decide! where! aid! needs! to! go! and! what! goals! it! should! accomplish.! Another! trend! is! the! focus! on! ‘good! governance’! in! recent! years! in! order! to! make!sure!aid!provided!to!a!country!is!ending!up!at!the!correct!places.!(de!Haan!2009,!p.!82@

84)!A!final!trend!is!a!broader!focus!on!universal!partnerships!when!it!comes!to!development! as! for! example! becomes! clear! when! we! look! the! prior! mentioned! MDGs.! Although! the! motivation!has!not!changed!much!over!years,!the!main!emphasise!is!still!with!preventing! conflict!start!or!recurrence!since!those!two!have!most!impact!on!developing!countries,!we! see!there!has!been!an!evolution!of!aid!strategies!over!time.!!

So! we! have! seen! a! range! of! different! development! aid! strategies,! all! with! a! different! approach! on! helping! the! poor! and! preventing! future! conflict.! It! started! with! a! focus! on! rebuilding!Europe!in!order!to!prevent!communism!to!take!over!and!afterwards,!under!the! influence! of! decolonization! and! the! on@going! Cold! War,! this! was! still! the! main! strategic! motivation!for!Western!donors.!The!strategy!being!used!has!changed!over!time;!first!there! was!the!idea!to!‘kick!start’!an!economy!in!order!to!let!the!market!create!growth!that!would! benefit! all! from! potential! revenues.! Afterwards,! when! it! turned! out! to! be! complicated! to! change! entire! economies,! focus! went! to! direct! poverty! reduction! and! a! more! structural! adjustment!of!government!organizations.!Nowadays!we!see!an!interdisciplinary!approach!in! which!development!aid!has!both!attention!for!stimulating!the!economy!in!order!to!create! growth,!as!there!is!focus!for!improving!human!living!conditions!in!order!to!stimulate!growth.! Although!the!differences!between!the!diverse!aid!strategies,!it!is!important!to!note!there! has!always!been!a!similar!focus!on!preventing!future!conflict!and!creating!economic!growth! in!order!to!develop!the!situation!for!the!bottom!poor!and!create!a!more!stable!world!for! both!recipient!as!donor.!In!the!following!paragraph!the!different!forms!used!over!time!to! allocate!aid!are!discussed!and!the!link!between!diverse!motivations!and!aid!instruments!is! further!developed.!!

2.4 !Different!aid!methods:!bilateral!vs.!multilateral!and!project!vs.!programme!

Aid!has!flown!from!donor!to!recipient!in!several!different!forms!and!directions!over!time! under!the!influence!of!different!aid!strategies.!Within!this!thesis!we!will!focus!on!the!two! most!important!methods!in!order!to!get!a!better!view!on!the!impact!of!development!aid! and!how!it!enters!a!recipient’s!country.!First!we!discuss!the!differences!between!bilateral! and!multilateral!aid!and!afterwards!I!will!shortly!elaborate!on!the!programme!versus!project! approach!of!development!aid.!!

Roger! Riddell! (2007)! presents! one! of! the! most! straightforward! explanations! on! the! difference!between!bilateral!and!multilateral!aid:!“At&its&simplest,&official&aid&is&made&up&of& two&elements,&bilateral&and&multilateral&aid.&Bilateral&aid&is&provided&directly&by&governments,& through&their&official&aid&agencies,&to&an&aid&recipient&country.&Multilateral&aid&is&provided&to& the&recipient&by&an&international&organization&active&in&development.”&(Riddell!2007,!p.!51)! The! balance! between! bilateral! aid! and! multilateral! aid! is! around! 70%! versus! 30%,! so! the! amount!of!allocated!bilateral!aid!is!two!times!bigger!than!the!amount!of!multilateral!aid!(de! Haan!2009,!p.!23).!Another!point,!on!the!structure!of!both!forms!of!aid,!is!brought!up!by! Rogerson:!“There&are&more&than&twice&as&many&major&multilateral&agencies&which&provide& aid& as& there& are& major& bilateral& donors”! (Rogerson! et! al.! 2004,! p.! 29@31).! So! multilateral! organizations!are!more!diverse!in!numbers!but!have!fewer!budgets!when!compared!to!their! bilateral!‘rivals’.!

Perhaps! more! interesting! is! the! difference! between! the! two! methods! of! aid! when! motivation!is!concerned.!In!general!both!follow!the!dominant!aid!strategies!but!there!has! been!a!historical!distinction!between!the!two!when!it!comes!to!the!incentive!to!provide!aid.! Multilateral! aid! has! always! been! seen! as! less! politically! driven! than! bilateral! aid! and! therefore! had! a! slight! preference! over! the! other! (Riddell! 2007,! p.! 77).! In! contemporary! development!aid!it!could!still!be!said!that!bilateral!aid!is!more!likely!to!be!political!motivated! but!since!the!end!of!the!Cold!War!this!might!be!less!relevant!than!before.!We!might!even! argue! the! opposite! when! we! look! at! the! findings! of! Burnside! and! Dollar:! ! “We& found& no& significant&tendency&for&total&aid&or&bilateral&aid&to&favour&good&policy.&On&the&other&hand,& aid& that& is& managed& multilaterally& […]& is& allocated& in& favour& of& good& policy.”& (Burnside&! Dollar! 2000,! p.! 864)! Multilateral! agencies! are! more! likely! to! allocate! aid! to! recipients! of! whom!they!think!perform!well!on!certain!criteria,!so!yet!again!this!shows!all!forms!of!aid! have!some!strategic!motivation.!In!the!case!of!bilateral!versus!multilateral!aid!it!concerns! the!promotion!of!a!specific!political!system!or!the!performance!of!the!recipient.!

The! second! division! in! aid! forms! is! made! between! programme! aid! and! project! aid.! The! simplest!form!to!describe!the!differences!between!the!two!is!on!a!historical!basis,!in!line! with!different!aid!strategies.!Development!projects!used!to!be,!and!still!are,!the!main!form!

of!Official!Development!Aid!(ODA)!allocated!by!donors.!The!purpose!is!to!achieve!concrete! and! specific! outputs! in! the! recipient’s! country! in! order! to! fill! the! gaps! they! encounter.! (Riddell!2007,!p.180)!Possible!examples!of!development!projects!could!be!building!schools,! hospitals! or! providing! assistance! during! an! election.! Programme! aid! in! contrast! focuses! more!on!an!entire!sector!in!order!to!improve!the!total!level!of!outcome!by!this!sector.!So!for! example! a! donor’s! focus! on! the! healthcare! within! the! recipient’s! country.! Therefore! programme! aid! fits! better! within! the! contemporary! development! strategies! as! discussed! above!where!there!is!more!focus!on!a!broader!approach!towards!developing!a!country.!This! is!also!emphasized!by!Riddell:!“Programme&aid&is&set&to&expand&significantly&in&the&future,& both&in&absolute&terms&and&as&a&share&of&total&aid&provided.”(Riddell!2007,!p.!195)!Compared! to!project!aid!this!broader!programme!approach!is!in!need!of!more!time!in!order!to!bring!a! structural! change! in! creating! stability! and! growth! within! a! recipient’s! country.! Since! a! programme!is!focusing!on!the!change!of!several!aspects!within!a!country!the!effects!over! time!are!potentially!more!significant!in!comparison!to!project!aid.!Consequently!popularity! of! programme! aid! must! be! placed! in! the! perspective! of! the! contemporary! governance! focused!development!aid!strategy.!

In! conclusion! there! are! two! main! divisions! in! aid! forms! bilateral! versus! multilateral! and! project!versus!programme!aid.!Bilateral!aid!is!still!the!most!prominent!form!of!aid!with!over! 70%! of! the! total! amount! of! ODA.! And! although! previously! bilateral! aid! has! been! seen! as! more! political! motivated! there! are! recent! indications! that! multilateral! aid! is! also! partly! strategically!motivated!when!it!comes!to!contemporary!development!aid.!Also!we!witness!a! shift! from! a! project! based! development! aid! period! to! a! more! programme! based! development!strategy!in!which!there!is!more!focus!on!the!broader!perspective!instead!of!a! focus! on! specific! gaps! within! the! recipient’s! country.! This! shift! also! fits! well! within! the! contemporary! aid! strategy! for! developing! stability! and! economic! growth.! In! the! following! paragraph!this!thesis!continues!with!an!examination!of!different!onsets!of!civil!conflict!in! order!to!create!a!better!understanding!of!the!possible!link!between!conflict!onset,!allocated! aid!and!potential!recurrence!of!civil!conflict.!Reason!why!there!is!a!focus!on!conflict!onset!is! because!it!provides!an!important!insight!in!what!elements!within!a!society!need!attention! from!development!aid!in!order!to!prevent!future!conflict!and!create!a!more!stable!world.!!

2.5 !Civil!conflict:!onset!debate!!

When!we!examine!civil!conflict!there!are!two!main!lines!of!argument!on!the!possible!onset! of!these!events,!the!first!is!focused!on!opportunity!while!the!second!argues!the!source!for! civil! conflict! must! be! found! in! underlying! grievances,! in! particularly! those! caused! by! horizontal!inequalities!within!a!society.!Both!theories!are!focused!on!a!certain!aspect!within! a!society!that!will!cause!a!conflict!to!start!and!they!are!not!at!all!incompatible,!there!always! needs!to!be!an!opportunity!and!organisation!for!grievances!to!start!a!conflict!for!example.! The! focus! within! the! opportunity! argument! is! on! temporary! events! that! occur! within! a! society!while!the!grievance@based!argument!is!focused!on!structural!developments!between! groups!in!a!society.!Although!both!sets!of!onset!factors!might!have!a!different!impact!on!the! character!of!civil!conflicts!they!cause,!when!intensity!or!duration!of!conflict!is!concerned,! the!focus!within!this!thesis!will!be!on!how!these!different!onsets!are!being!formed.!What! are! the! underlying! elements! within! a! society! that! cause! a! conflict! to! start! and! therefore! what! should! be! the! focus! of! development! aid! in! order! to! prevent! future! conflict.! Hence,! within! this! paragraph,! the! thesis! will! elaborate! briefly! on! both! onsets! and! stipulate! the! differences!between!the!two!and!how!different!development!aid!strategies!should!address! them.!!

First!we!will!focus!on!the!inequality@based!argument!as!a!reason!for!civil!conflict!to!occur.! Most!recent!contribution!to!this!view!comes!from!Cederman,!Gledtisch!and!Buhaug!(2013)! in! their! study! ‘Inequality,! Grievances! and! Civil! War’.! In! short! they! argue! that! horizontal! inequalities! form! a! breeding! ground! for! grievances! between! different! groups! within! a! society!and!these!grievances!will!possible!lead!to!the!eruption!of!civil!conflict.!They!describe! horizontal! inequalities! as! differences! between! entire! groups! instead! of! the! vertical! inequalities!between!individuals!and!households.!(Cederman!et!al.!2013,!p.!32)!Important! notion! on! the! core! of! these! horizontal! inequalities! is! the! fact! they! are! centred! on! ethnic! differences! between! groups.! In! the! beginning! of! their! book! they! explain! why! it! is! so! important! to! take! ethnicity! into! consideration! when! it! comes! to! civil! conflict.! They! argue! that!it!adds!an!extra!‘spark’!to!the!intensity!and!duration!of!civil!conflict!compared!to!for! example!the!effect!of!‘simple’!political!exclusion.!(Cederman!et!al.!2013,!p.!3)!!!

When!elaborating!further!on!these!horizontal!inequalities!Cederman!et!al.!(2013)!find!they! promote! ethnic! separatist! conflict! (Cederman! et! al.! 2013,! p.! 166)! and! also! that! political! exclusion! for! ethnic! groups! increase! the! chances! on! an! ethnic! governmental! conflict! (Cederman! et! al.! 2013,! p.! 165).! In! comparison! to! the! opportunity@based! argument,! Cederman!et!al.!(2013)!are!more!focused!on!structural!elements!within!a!society!that!might! form!the!reason!for!a!potential!civil!conflict!to!start.!The!onset!of!a!civil!conflict!must!not!be! seen!as!a!coincidence!but!as!a!result!of!a!structural!element!within!a!society.!Cederman!et!al.! (2013)! conclude! the! following:! “[…]& the& risk& of& seeing& civil& war& in& a& country& should& be& considered& a& function& for& collective& grievances& arising& from& political& and& economic& inequalities&across&groups.&By&contrast,&interpersonal&differences&seem&largely&unrelated&to& civil&war.”!(Cederman!et!al.!2013,!p.!165)!Hence!when!we!focus!on!the!relation!between! grievances! and! development! aid! strategies! the! latter! should! focus! on! these! inequalities! across!groups.!If!development!aid!strategies!want!to!be!successful!in!preventing!grievances! from!starting!a!conflict,!they!should!focus!on!structural!and!broad!tactics!in!order!to!address! these!inequalities.!The!assumption!within!this!thesis!is!that!a!more!human!capital!focused! aid! strategy! will! be! more! effective! in! addressing! these! inequalities! since! the! focus! of! this! form! of! aid! is! often! more! structural.! Hence! the! assumption! is! that! the! negative! effect! of! human!capital!focused!development!strategies!on!conflict!recurrence!will!be!stronger!when! situated!in!a!conflict!with!an!inequality@based!onset.!!!

Second! we! focus! on! the! opportunity! argument,! which! is! maybe! best! described! in! the! ‘feasibility& hypotheses’& by! Collier! &! Hoeffler! and! Rohner! (2009).! They! argue! that:! “where& rebellion& is& feasible& it& will& occur:& motivation& is& indeterminate,& being& supplied& by& whatever& agenda&happens&to&be&adopted&by&the&first&social&entrepreneur&to&occupy&the&viable&niche.”& (Collier! et! al.! 2009,! p.! 20)! So! if! an! opportunity! presents! itself,! for! example! a! temporary! diminishing! of! government! power! or! some! form! of! economic! opportunity,! it! will! form! a! trigger! for! potential! rebels! to! start! a! conflict.! Fearon! and! Laitin! (2003)! argue! that! “What& matters& is& whether& active& rebels& can& hide& from& government& forces& and& whether& economic& conditions&are&so&poor&that&life&as&a&rebel&is&attractive&to&500&or&2,000&young&men.”&(Fearon! &!Laitin!2003,!p.!88)!If!these!conditions!are!met!it!creates!an!opportunity!for!a!civil!conflict! to!start!according!to!them.!Important!notion!is!the!fact!that!the!onset!presents!itself!as!an!

opportunity! and! therefore! the! context! is! time@specific,! however! there! can! be! multiple! opportunities!so!it!will!not!necessarily!be!momentary.!Also,!when!it!comes!to!the!relation! with!development!aid,!since!this!type!of!onset!is!a!convergence!of!different!elements,!the! objective!of!development!aid!is!to!prevent!these!elements!from!coming!together!and!thus! prevent!conflict!from!happening.!Since!there!are!diverse!elements!leading!to!the!start!of!a! civil!conflict,!this!implies!there!is!no!direct!need!for!a!very!specific!form!of!development!aid! strategy! in! order! to! reduce! the! chances! of! conflict! based! on! an! opportunity! onset.! This! especially! becomes! clear! when! we! consider! the! argument! of! Fearon! and! Laitin! (2003)! concerning! minor! effects,! like! the! possibility! to! hide! from! government! forces! or! the! opportunity!to!slightly!increase!your!economic!position,!that!could!already!lead!to!the!start! of!civil!conflict.!If!development!aid!is!able!to!address!one!or!more!of!these!effects!it!might! be! already! successful! in! preventing! a! conflict! to! start,! for! this! type! of! onset! the! type! of! development! aid! strategies! is! not! that! important! since! these! will! all! affect! one! of! the! different!effects!that!could!lead!to!civil!war.!Even!though!multiple!forms!of!aid!are!assumed! to!have!a!negative!effect!on!civil!conflict!duration!or!start,!the!assumption!within!this!thesis! is!that!within!an!opportunity@based!conflict!the!government!focused!development!aid!will! be! most! effective! in! preventing! recurrence.! Main! argument! for! this! assumption! is! the! finding! that! development! aid! focused! on! a! government! can! be! effective! both! by! strengthening! government! institutions! in! order! to! control! for! potential! conflict! as! it! will! provide! the! change! for! a! government! to! deal! with! the! most! prominent! economic! inequalities!within!a!country.!!

So! when! focusing! on! the! onset! debate! we! have! seen! two! different! arguments,! one! is! focused! around! opportunities! and! the! other! is! focused! on! horizontal! inequalities.! Both! arguments!try!to!offer!an!explanation!for!the!onset!of!civil!conflict;!main!difference!between! the!two!might!be!their!position!in!time.!The!opportunity@based!argument!has!a!temporal! character,! and! requires! a! particular! coincidence! of! events! while! the! inequality@based! argument!is!more!structurally!embedded!within!a!society.!It!sees!the!onset!of!a!civil!conflict! more!as!a!structural!element!within!a!society!that!could!erupt!under!certain!circumstances.! Together!with!the!differences!in!conflict!character!formed!by!the!both!set!of!onset!factors,!

concerning! certain! aid! strategies! being! more! effective! in! preventing! diverse! civil! conflict! recurrence! over! others.! Before! advancing! to! this! theoretical! argument! the! following! paragraph!will!first!focus!on!the!prevailing!literature!concerning!the!relation!between!aid! and! conflict! in! order! to! see! how! both! interact! with! the! different! characteristics! of! the! diverse! onset.! Expectation! is! that! we! will! see! an! interaction! in! which! the! different! aid! strategies!will!all!have!a!form!of!interaction!with!the!different!onset!factors,!the!will!both! address! the! shorter! term! opportunity! factors! as! the! longer! term! inequality! factors.! The! challenge!within!this!thesis!is!to!find!if!one!of!the!different!aid!strategies!will!be!better!in! addressing!the!factors!causing!a!specific!civil!conflict!onset!over!the!other.!!

2.6 !Relation!aid!&!conflict!

There!exists!a!wide!range!of!studies!concerning!the!relation!between!development!aid!and! (civil)! conflict;! for! a! long! period! of! time! the! predominant! conclusion! was! that! aid! had! a! negative!effect!on!the!duration!and!likely!outbreak!of!a!conflict!(Savun!and!Tirone!2011)!(de! Ree!and!Nillesen!2009).!In!recent!years!the!literature!has!paid!more!attention!to!the!specific! role!of!development!aid!concerning!different!aspects!of!conflict!situations.!One!important! argument! is! made! by! Nielsen! et! al.! (2011),! it! fits! within! the! predominant! conclusion! but! focuses!more!on!the!specific!dynamics!behind!the!relation!between!aid!and!conflict.!What! they! found! is! that! the! sudden! absence! of! aid! has! a! reversed! effect! on! conflict;! these! so@ called! ‘aid! shocks’! will! increase! the! risk! of! armed! conflict.! (Nielsen! et! al.! 2011)! Another! argument,! focusing! more! on! the! specific! dynamics,! is! made! by! Berman! et! al.! (2013)! who! argue!that!the!way!in!which!aid!is!allocated!makes!a!difference!for!the!effect!it!has!on!the! conflict!situation.!They!find!that!small!projects!executed!by!professionals!prove!to!be!more! effective!in!the!case!of!Iraq!(Berman!et!al.!2013,!p.!516).!Crost,!Felter!and!Johnston!(2014)! build!a!similar!case!when!they!look!at!the!relation!between!development!aid!and!conflict!in! the! Philippines.! They! argue! there! is! a! causal! relation! between! the! preparedness! of! municipalities! for! receiving! development! aid! and! the! potential! increase! of! conflict! within! these!societies.!When!a!municipality!is!not!prepared!for!the!allocation!of!development!aid! there!will!be!an!opportunity!for!rebels!to!take!advantage!of!the!aid!and!use!it!to!their!own! advantage.!(Crost!et!al.!2014,!p.!1840)!Hence,!since!current!literature!indicates!that!aid!can! have!effects!on!conflict!dynamics,!the!argument!made!in!this!thesis!on!the!possible!causal!

relation!between!development!aid!and!civil!conflict!recurrence!adds!to!the!current!debate.! Therefore!this!thesis!will!elaborate!further!on!the!relation!between!development!aid!and! civil!conflict!in!order!to!better!understand!the!research!setting!in!which!this!thesis!must!be! placed.!!

In! certain! cases,! development! aid! can! have! a! negative! effect! on! the! start! of! a! conflict! according! to! Savun! and! Tirone! (2011).! In! their! article! “Foreign! Aid,! Democratization,! and! Civil!Conflict:!How!Does!Democracy!Aid!Affect!Civil!Conflict?”!they!argue!the!following:!“[…]& external&democracy&aid&can&strengthen&newly&established&political&institutions,&bolster&state& legitimacy,& and& act& as& a& ‘validation’& of& promises& that& the& new& government& makes,& and& thereby&decrease&the&risk&of&domestic&violence.”(Savun!and!Tirone!2011,!p.!237)!Within!their! article! they! find! that! democratizing! states! that! receive! significant! amounts! of! democracy! focused!development!aid!are!less!likely!to!experience!civil!conflict.!Even!when!controlled!for! in!relation!to!other!forms!of!Official!Development!Aid!this!specific!type!of!aid,!focused!on! strengthen!democratic!government!structures,!will!help!a!recipients!country!government!in! the! conduct! of! their! policies.! (Savun! and! Tirone! 2011,! p.! 234)! Another! important! factor,! which!reduces!the!chances!of!civil!conflict,!is!the!support!of!civil!society!through!electoral! assistance.!This!will!improves!both!the!responsiveness!of!citizen!concerns!and!the!legitimacy! of! the! central! government! and! contributes! to! the! level! of! public! trust! in! a! government! (Savun!&!Tirone!2011,!p.!236).!Crost!et!al.!(2014)!add!an!interesting!feature!to!this!dynamic! by!arguing!there!is!a!relation!between!the!preparedness!of!a!community!and!the!success! rate!of!the!allocated!development!aid.!When!a!community!is!not!fully!prepared!to!allocate! aid!it!will!be!easier!for!insurgent!groups!to!disturb!the!process!of!development!and!use!the! aid!for!their!own!benefit!and!thereby!keep!government!power!low.!Insurgent!groups!seize! the!opportunity!and!create!a!benefit!for!their!own!by!distressing!the!development!process! in!order!to!stay!in!control!of!power.!(Crost!et!al.!2014)!The!arguments!above!all!form!an! indication!for!a!relation!between!development!aid!and!civil!conflict,!both!with!a!positive!and! negative! effect.! We! need! to! examine! this! relation! further! in! order! to! construct! the! argument!on!a!possible!relation!between!development!aid!strategies!and!the!prevention!of! conflict! recurrence.! The! findings! above! could! already! be! used! in! order! to! adapt! a!

But!the!literature!on!conflict!and!development!aid!has!produced!more!arguments!on!the! possible! relation! between! the! two! that! should! be! mentioned! before! focussing! on! the! theoretical!argument!of!this!thesis.!

Additional!de!Ree!and!Nillesen!(2009)!have!published!an!interesting!article,!concerning!the! relation!between!aid!and!the!actual!dynamics!of!conflict.!They!have!studied!the!impact!of! foreign! aid! in! the! sub@Saharan! region! and! argue,! “that& increasing& aid& flows& decreases& the& duration& of& conflict”! (de! Ree! and! Nillesen! 2009,! p.! 312).! Two! of! their! fundamental! hypotheses,!on!which!their!argument!is!constructed,!both!relate!too!elements!out!of!the! different!conflict!onsets.!The!first!argues!that!with!the!availability!of!foreign!aid!money!the! government! is! better! able! to! create! a! stable! financial! situation! and! control! rent@seeking! rebels.! The! second! focuses! on! the! growing! capabilities! of! a! government! when! they! have! access!to!bigger!funds.!Consequently!they!will!be!able!to!organize!a!better!functioning!army! and! decrease! some! of! the! economic! inequalities,! both! will! strengthen! the! government’s! ability!to!keep!peace!within!a!country.!(de!Ree!and!Nillesen!2009,!p.!302)!This!claims!that! the!effect!of!development!aid!is!not!restricted!by!one!type!of!civil!conflict!it!has!multiple! dimensions.!Both!opportunities!and!inequalities!are!being!addressed!by!increasing!aid!flows,! it! both! strengthens! a! government! in! order! to! control! for! the! convergence! of! different! elements! that! will! create! an! opportunities! and! it! provides! them! the! tool! to! structurally! reduce! economic! inequalities! that! might! form! a! base! for! grievances.! These! findings! strengthen! the! assumption! there! might! be! a! relation! between! the! total! amount! of! aid! entering!a!post@conflict!situation!and!the!chances!on!recurrence!of!civil!conflict.!Aid!is!being! used! as! a! tool! by! increasing! the! power! of! a! government! in! providing! them! with! more! spending!power.!Consequently!they!will!be!able!to!reduce!most!pressing!poverty!issues!that! could! lead! to! inequality! based! grievances! and! secondly! they! can! use! the! extra! money! to! strengthen! government! institutions! like! the! army! in! order! to! repress! potential! rebel! movement.! Important! to! note! is! that! although! development! aid! might! have! an! effect! on! both!reducing!inequality!and!opportunity!factors!leading!to!a!potentially!civil!conflict,!the! effectiveness! of! development! aid! will! be! measured! by! how! successful! it! is! in! actually! preventing!recurrence.!!

However!the!negative!effect!of!aid!on!conflict!is!probably!best!shown!in!the!study!of!Nielsen! et!al.!(2011).!!They!argue,!in!the!article!“Foreign!Aid!Shocks!as!a!Cause!of!Violent!Armed! Conflict”,!that!the!possible!decline!of!aid!within!a!developing!country!will!increase!the!risk!of! armed! conflict.! In! line! with! the! previously! mentioned! relation! between! aid! and! (civil)! conflict,! which! is! mostly! centred! around! the! idea! that! if! a! government! has! access! to! development!money!they!will!be!a)!able!to!reduce!part!of!the!most!demanding!economic! inequalities!that!lead!to!grievances!and!b)!will!be!better!able!to!reduce!the!‘opportunity’!for! rebels! to! start! a! conflict.! Nielsen! et! al.! argue! that! when! a! developing! country! is! facing! a! sudden!‘aid!shock’,!its!government!will!no!longer!be!able!to!meet!up!to!their!responsibilities! and! the! chances! of! civil! conflict! increase.! (Nielsen! et! al.! 2011,! p.! 220@222)! Although! the! argument! of! Nielsen! et! al.! (2011)! does! not! indicate! why! aid! is! effective! in! reducing! the! chances!on!civil!war!or!which!aid!strategy!is!being!used,!it!does!indicate!that!the!absence!of! aid!will!increase!the!chances.!This!forms!an!important!indication!for!further!research!on!the! relation!between!development!aid!and!conflict!in!order!to!increase!the!effectiveness!of!aid! in! conflict! prevention.! Since! we! know! that! the! absence! of! aid! will! lead! to! an! increasing! chance! on! civil! conflict! (Nielsen! et! al.! 2011)! and! an! increasing! amount! of! aid! flows! will! decrease!the!duration!of!conflict!(de!Ree!and!Nillesen!2009),!it!is!interesting!to!research!the! precise! relation! between! development! aid! and! conflict! more! specific! in! order! to! increase! the!effectiveness!of!development!aid!in!reducing!conflict!and!preventing!conflict!recurrence.!! When!we!examine!the!line!of!arguments!used!in!the!above,!we!find!they!are!all!related!to! the! temporary! character! of! the! opportunity@based! conflict.! The! presence! or! absence! of! development!aid!is!essential!for!the!chances!on!civil!conflict.!The!arguments!above!discuss! development!aid!as!being!a!tool!for!a!recipient’s!country!government!to!decrease!the!risk! on! a! potential! civil! war! by! reducing! poverty! or! by! strengthening! government! institutions.! Also! the! arguments! being! made! by! de! Ree! and! Nillesen! (2009)! and! Nielsen! et! al.! (2011)! indicate!that!development!aid!is!important!in!addressing!some!of!the!inequalities!present! within!a!society!in!order!to!prevent!them!from!becoming!grievances!that!could!possible!lead! to!civil!conflict.!Consequently,!based!on!these!arguments,!we!could!argue!that!government! focused!aid!will!decrease!the!opportunity!to!start!a!conflict!by!both!focussing!on!reducing!

lead! to! grievances.! ! This! creates! an! incentive! to! further! research! the! relation! between! development!aid!and!(civil)!conflict.!Are!there!certain!development!aid!strategies!that!are! more! focused! on! addressing! horizontal! inequalities! within! a! society! that! lead! to! possible! civil!conflict?!Based!on!the!arguments!above,!within!this!thesis,!the!hypothesis!is!that!there! is!a!causal!relation!between!conflict!recurrence!and!development!aid.!Development!aid!with! a! broad! focus! on! human! capital! is! presumed! to! have! a! negative! effect! on! horizontal! inequalities!and!therefore!to!have!a!negative!effect!on!the!outbreak!or!recurrence!of!this! type! of! civil! war.! Subsequently! the! assumption! is! also! that! development! aid! strategies! focused! on! economic! growth! or! the! stimulation! of! economic! growth! within! a! recipient’s! country!will!have!a!negative!effect!on!opportunities.!Since!the!presence!of!more!funds!will! reduce!the!opportunity!for!civil!conflict!in!several!ways!(de!Ree!and!Nielsen!2009)!we!would! expect! that! economic! focused! development! aid! will! especially! have! an! effect! in! reducing! opportunity@based! civil! war.! Within! the! subsequent! part! of! this! thesis! the! theoretical! argument!will!be!constructed!based!on!different!elements!out!of!the!literature!review!and! the! different! hypotheses! will! be! elaborated! on.! Subsequent! we! will! test! the! diverse! hypotheses!in!order!to!find!an!answer!to!the!overall!research!question!within!this!thesis.!!!!!

3. Theoretical+framework+&+hypotheses++

Within!their!work!Duflo!and!Rodrik!show!two!important!concepts!when!it!comes!to!social! science! research.! First! Duflo! refers! to! the! importance! of! ‘randomized! evaluation’! and! emphasizes! the! need! for! being! as! objective! as! possible! when! it! comes! to! conducting! research!within!social!sciences!(Duflo!et!al.!2013).!Dani!Rodrik!showed!that!when!it!comes! to!economic!development!there!is!not!one!set!of!rules!that!should!be!followed,!each!case!is! unique!and!benefits!most!when!following!their!own!strategy!(Rodrik!2007).!Based!on!both! arguments,! this! thesis! will! try! to! test! objectively! whether! there! is! a! possible! relation! between!development!aid!and!civil!conflict!recurrence.!Also!there!will!be!a!clear!focus!on! different!aid!strategies,!mentioned!in!the!literature!review,!in!order!to!test!if!diverse!civil! conflict!situations!will!benefit!more!or!less!when!different!strategies!are!applied.!!!

As!mentioned!in!the!literature!review,!the!focus!within!this!thesis!is!on!a!possible!relation! between! development! aid! and! recurrence! within! civil! conflict.! There! will! be! additional! attention! for! the! possible! mediating! influence! of! original! conflict! onset! in! order! to! determine! whether! certain! forms! of! development! aid! will! be! more! effective! in! different! (post)! conflict! situations.! In! order! to! build! a! theoretical! framework! for! the! hypotheses! concerning!these!relations,!it!will!be!essential!to!keep!the!work!of!Ester!Duflo!et!al.!and!Dani! Rodrik! in! mind! in! order! to! understand! the! research! perspective! within! this! thesis.! Afterwards! this! chapter! will! elaborate! on! the! theoretical! framework! and! the! hypotheses! that!will!be!tested!in!order!to!find!an!answer!on!the!main!research!question!posed!within! this!thesis.!!

In!general!it!is!assumed!that!development!aid!has!a!predominantly!negative!effect!on!civil! conflict,! both! Savun! and! Tirone! (2011)! and! de! Ree! and! Nillesen! (2009)! argue! that! development!aid!affects!the!duration!and!start!of!a!potential!civil!conflict.!More!interesting! though!is!the!argument!made!by!Nielsen!(2011),!he!argues!that!a!decline!in!development! aid!will!increase!the!risk!of!the!start!of!a!civil!conflict.!When!a!country!is!facing!an!aid!shock! the! government! of! that! country! is! no! longer! able! to! meet! up! to! their! responsibilities.! Therefore! we! could! argue! that! constant! flows! of! development! aid! provide! a! government! with!a!certain!form!of!power!in!order!to!keep!potential!rebels!from!starting!a!conflict.!The!

capabilities!of!a!government!in!order!to!control!rent!seeking!rebels!by!both!strengthening! its!own!institutions!as!with!reducing!some!of!the!economic!inequality!within!a!country!will! reduce! the! risk! of! a! potential! conflict! (de! Ree! and! Nillesen! 2009).! When! a! country! is! receiving!stable!amounts!of!developing!aid!in!a!post@conflict!situation!we!would!expect!this! to!have!a!negative!effect!on!possible!recurrence!of!the!conflict,!this!leads!to!the!following! hypothesis:!!

H1.+ Stable+ or+ increasing+ levels+ of+ development+ aid+ in+ nonYconflict+ years+ will+ have+ a+ negative+effect+on+civil+conflict+recurrence++++

If!we!elaborate!further!on!the!concept!of!development!aid,!the!literature!review!has!shown! there! are! three! main! aid! strategies,! all! with! a! different! focus! and! approach! towards! development.!The!first!is!mainly!concentrated!on!stimulating!economic!growth!and!has!a! top@down! perspective! in! which! economic! development! is! thought! to! benefit! an! entire! society!in!the!long!run.!The!second!strategy!focuses!on!government!structures!and!argues! you!need!to!restructure!government!institutions!in!order!to!stimulate!development!within!a! country.! Finally! there! is! a! bottom@up! view,! which! argues! you! should! improve! basic! living! conditions!within!a!society!by!allocating!development!aid!focused!on!human!capital!projects.! Main!assumption!with!this!last!strategy!is!that!a!focus!on!the!bottom!poor!within!a!society! will!eventually!benefit!the!overall!development!in!a!society.!Within!this!thesis!the!focus!will! be! on! these! different! aid! strategies.! Since! all! three! strategies! have! a! different! approach! towards! the! development! of! a! society,! prediction! would! be! that! different! strategies! have! different!effects!on!a!society!when!allocated!in!a!post@civil!conflict!situation.!Especially!since! both! main! theories! on! the! onset! of! civil! conflict,! a! ‘grievances’! based! onset! and! a! more! ‘opportunity’! based! onset,! have! a! different! approach! towards! the! structures! that! lead! to! initial!onset.!!!

As! stated! in! the! literature! review! we! could! distinguish! between! an! opportunity@based! conflict! onset! and! a! grievances! or! inequality! based! onset.! Concerning! the! post@conflict! situation!in!which!possible!recurrence!might!occur!there!are!some!important!differences!to! be!mentioned!between!the!two.!First!there!is!a!difference!in!the!position!where!the!conflict! originates!from!within!a!society!and!second!we!notice!a!different!position!when!placed!in!a!

time!perspective.!We!will!start!with!an!emphasis!on!the!position!where!a!conflict!finds!it! origins,!the!focus!will!be!first!on!the!opportunity@based!onset.!!

This! thesis! is! interested! if! different! aid! strategies! have! different! effects! in! a! post@conflict! situation! concerning! possible! conflict! recurrence.! Since! the! government! can! play! an! important!role!in!reducing!an!initial!opportunity!we!would!expect!that!when!an!aid!strategy! is!more!focused!on!a!government!this!will!decrease!the!chance!on!civil!conflict!recurrence! even!more!when!allocated!in!an!opportunity!based!civil!conflict!situation.!So!therefore!the! following!hypothesis!is:!!

H2.+ In+ a+ postYconflict+ situation,+ with+ an+ opportunityYbased+ onset,+ higher+ levels+ of+ government+focused+development+aid+will+decrease+the+effect+on+civil+conflict+recurrence+ even+more.++++

If! we! further! elaborate! on! the! different! positions! from! which! a! conflict! originates! from! within!a!society,!it!is!interesting!to!look!at!the!grievances!based!civil!conflict!situation.!When! compared!to!the!opportunity@based!conflict,!the!former!type!of!onset!is!less!temporary!and! forms! a! more! structural! disruption! within! a! society.! One! of! the! reasons! for! the! more! structural!character!must!be!found!in!the!reason!why!there!are!grievances!in!the!first!place.! Cederman!et!al.!(2013)!explain!that!grievances,!which!eventually!could!lead!to!the!eruption! of!civil!violence,!are!a!consequence!of!the!horizontal!inequalities!that!exist!within!a!society.! These!inequalities!are!mainly!based!on!existing!differences!between!ethnic!groups!and!do! not!suddenly!appear.!(Cederman!et!al.!2013)!They!often!already!exist!for!a!long!time,!and! form!the!base!of!a!society!that!marks!the!more!structural!character!of!this!type!of!onset.!! So!in!a!grievance!based!post@conflict!situation!the!assumption!is!that!it!will!be!necessary!to! reduce!the!inequalities!within!a!society!in!order!to!prevent!possible!conflict!recurrence.!In! order!to!do!so!the!presumption!is!that!a!bottom!up!aid!strategy!will!be!more!effective!in! reducing!inequalities!between!different!groups!compared!to!a!strategy!that!follows!a!more! top!down!approach.!Main!reason!for!this!line!of!argumentation!is!the!fact!that!inequalities! seem! to! be! focused! in! the! base! of! a! society! and! therefore! a! broader! focus! on! improving! human!living!conditions!would!reduce!the!changes!on!grievances!between!groups!leading!to!

H3.+In+postYcivil+conflict+situations+with+an+inequalityYbased+onset+the+negative+effect+of+ development+ aid+ on+ conflict+ recurrence+ will+ be+ stronger+ when+ the+ main+ emphasis+ is+ on+ human+capital+focused+development+aid.+

When!placed!in!a!time!perspective!the!opportunity!based!onset!has!a!temporary!character,! it!presents!an!opportunity!for!a!conflict!to!start!in!line!with!the!feasibility!hypothesis!(Collier! et! al.! 2009).! In! theory! this! would! mean! that! recurrence! could! be! avoided! when! you! take! away!the!opportunity,!this!is!shown!for!example!by!the!argument!of!de!Ree!and!Nillesen! (2009)!who!argue!that!aid!flows!influence!conflict!onset!and!duration.!Since!the!temporary! character! of! this! type! of! onset! you! would! presume! that,! if! a! government! is! successful! in! reducing!the!initial!opportunity,!in!the!long!run!the!opportunity!will!fade!away!and!there! will!be!less!civil!conflict!recurrence.!On!the!other!hand,!when!we!place!the!inequality!based@ onset! in! a! time! perspective! we! will! notice! it! has! a! more! structural! character.! Recurrence! within!this!type!of!onset!could!be!avoided!by!structurally!addressing!the!inequalities!within! a!society!in!order!to!try!to!take!them!away.!Consequently!this!means!that!development!aid! needs!time!in!order!to!be!effective!in!preventing!conflict!recurrence.!!

Hence!the!assumption!is!that!development!aid!will!benefit!from!a!higher!amount!of!non@ conflict!years!in!order!to!become!effective!in!obtaining!its!goal!to!create!a!stable!world!and! prevent! conflict! recurrence.! However! since! the! opportunity@based! onset! has! a! more! temporary! character,! the! assumption! within! this! thesis! is! that! the! negative! effect! of! an! increasing! amount! of! non@conflict! years! will! be! stronger! within! an! opportunity@based! conflict!since!the!factors!causing!conflict!are!easier!to!address.!Therefor!the!final!hypothesis! is!the!following:!!

H4.+In+a+postYconflict+situation,+with+an+opportunityYbased+onset,+more+nonYconflict+years+ will+lead+to+less+recurrence.++