Manuscript in preparation
6HQVLWLYLW\DQGVSHFLILFLW\
FRQVLGHUDQH[LVWLQJUHOHYDQWSRSXODWLRQGDWDEDVHZLWKWKHFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRID WKRXVDQGILUHDUPV,IWKHFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVREVHUYHGLQWKHFXUUHQWFDVHGRQRW RFFXULQWKDWGDWDEDVHWKLVZLOOUHVXOWLQDKLJKEXWXQGHWHUPLQHGHYLGHQWLDOVWUHQJWK LIWKHFXUUHQWFDVHLVQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKHUHOHYDQWSRSXODWLRQ,IZHLQFOXGHWKHFXUUHQW FDVH ZH FDQ SURYLGH DQ HVWLPDWH RI WKH HYLGHQWLDO VWUHQJWK ZKLFK ZLOO EH DQ /5
DURXQG ܮܴ ൌ ଵ
ଵȀଵଵ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
RQWKHDFWXDOREVHUYDWLRQVDQGPHDVXUHPHQWV(YHQWKRXJKZHUHFRJQL]HWKDWWKHVH FODVVLILFDWLRQV FDQ LQWURGXFH HUURUV ZH ZLOO GLVFXVV DQ DSSURDFK WR DVVHVV WKH HYLGHQWLDOVWUHQJWKRIFRUUHVSRQGLQJFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVEDVHGRQFODVVLILFDWLRQVDV DQ LQWHUPHGLDWH VWHS WRZDUGV D IXOO\ SUREDELOLVWLF DSSURDFK ,Q OLQH ZLWK FXUUHQW SUDFWLFH WKLV DSSURDFK UHVXOWV LQ UDQGRP PDWFK HTXLYDOHQWV >@ VLPLODU WR WKH UDQGRPPDWFKSUREDELOLW\LQ'1$DQDO\VLV
)ROORZLQJ WKLV DSSURDFK ZH ZLOO ORRN DW WKH HUURUV LQYROYHG LQ WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQLQWHUPVRIVHQVLWLYLW\WUXHSRVLWLYHUDWHDQGVSHFLILFLW\WUXHQHJDWLYH UDWHDQGDWWKHLUHIIHFWRQWKHDVVHVVHGHYLGHQWLDOVWUHQJWK:HFRQVLGHUZKHWKHUWKH REVHUYHGFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVZHUHFRUUHFWO\RULQFRUUHFWO\FODVVLILHGWREHORQJWRD VSHFLILF FODVV HJ WKH RQH EHLQJ UHOHYDQW IRU WKH FXUUHQW FDVH 7KH VHQVLWLYLW\ (TXDWLRQ LV GHILQHG DV WKH QXPEHU RI ILUHDUPV RI WKH VSHFLILF FODVV WKDW DUH FRUUHFWO\ FODVVLILHG LQ WKDW FODVV ܨௌ௦௦ GLYLGHG E\ WKH VDPH QXPEHU RI ILUHDUPVܨௌ௦௦SOXVWKHQXPEHURIILUHDUPVRIWKHVSHFLILFFODVVWKDWDUH LQFRUUHFWO\FODVVLILHGLQDQRWKHUFODVVܨതௌ௦௦7KHVSHFLILFLW\(TXDWLRQLV GHILQHGE\WKHQXPEHURIILUHDUPVRIDQRWKHUFODVVWKDWDUHFRUUHFWO\FODVVLILHGLQ DQRWKHUFODVVWKDQWKHVSHFLILFFODVVܨ௧௦௦GLYLGHGE\WKHVDPHQXPEHURI ILUHDUPV ܨ௧௦௦ SOXV WKH QXPEHU RI ILUHDUPV RI DQRWKHU FODVV WKDW DUH LQFRUUHFWO\FODVVLILHGLQWKHVSHFLILFFODVVܨത௧௦௦ ܵ݁݊ݏ݅ݐ݅ݒ݅ݐݕ ൌி ிೄೌೞೞ ೄೌೞೞାிതೄೌೞೞ ݂ܵ݁ܿ݅݅ܿ݅ݐݕ ൌ ிೌೝೌೞೞ ிೌೝೌೞೞାிതೌೝೌೞೞ ,QSUDFWLFHLWPD\EHWHPSWLQJWRWU\DQGLQFOXGHWKHUHVXOWVRIOHVVFHUWDLQ FODVVLILFDWLRQV LQ RXU VHDUFK SDUDPHWHUV WR DVVHVV WKH QXPEHU RI ILUHDUPV WKDW ZH LQFRUSRUDWHGLQRXUGDWDEDVHZLWKWKHVDPHFODVVLILFDWLRQDQGZKLFKFRXOGWKXVKDYH ILUHG WKH EXOOHW DQGRU FDUWULGJH FDVH ,QFOXGLQJ PRUH GHWDLOV LQ WKRVH VHDUFK SDUDPHWHUVZLOO UHVXOW LQ ORZHU UHODWLYH IUHTXHQFLHVRI RFFXUUHQFH DQG WKXVKLJKHU HYLGHQWLDOVWUHQJWKV+RZHYHUWKHHUURUVWKDWRFFXULQWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQZLOOFDXVH GHYLDWLRQVLQWKHHYLGHQWLDOVWUHQJWKUHSRUWHG
,QWKHIROORZLQJVXEVHFWLRQVZHZLOOLOOXVWUDWHWKHHIIHFWVRIFODVVLILFDWLRQVZLWK RUZLWKRXWXQFHUWDLQW\DVVHDUFKSDUDPHWHUVWRFRXQWWKHQXPEHURIILUHDUPVZLWK WKRVHFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRXWRIWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIILUHDUPVLQWKHGDWDEDVH:H ZLOOGRVRE\GLVFXVVLQJFDOLEHUGHWHUPLQDWLRQVJHQHUDOULIOLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFV*5& PHDVXUHPHQWVDQGWKHSRVVLEO\LQIHUUHGILUHDUP·VW\SHPDQXIDFWXUHUDQGRUPRGHO )RUWKHVHDVSHFWVZHZLOOH[SODLQWKHQHJDWLYHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIKLJKHUGHJUHHVRI LQIHUHQFHDQGSURYLGHJHQHUDOJXLGHOLQHVDERXWKRZWRGHDOZLWKWKRVHFRQVHTXHQFHV LQFDVHZRUN &DOLEHUFODVVLILFDWLRQ
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
7R H[SODLQ WKH SRWHQWLDO GLIILFXOW\ ZKHQ DVVHVVLQJ WKH UDULW\ RI FODVV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZKHQ XVLQJ FDOLEHU FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI EXOOHWV ZHFRQVLGHU D VKRRWLQJ LQFLGHQW DIWHU ZKLFK D UHYROYHU ZLWK ILYH FDUWULGJHV DQG RQH FDUWULGJH FDVH LQ WKH F\OLQGHU DQG RQH ILUHG EXOOHW ZHUH UHFRYHUHG %DVHG RQ WKH LQVFULSWLRQV RI WKH UHYROYHULWFDQHDVLO\EHGHGXFHGWKDWLWLVDFDOLEHU0DJQXPUHYROYHU%DVHGRQ WKH FDUWULGJHV· DQG FDUWULGJH FDVH·V KHDGVWDPSV DQG GLPHQVLRQV WKHVH DUH DOVR FODVVLILHGWREHFDOLEHU0DJQXP7KHPDVVGLPHQVLRQVDQGYLVXDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH EXOOHW DUH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKRVH RI D EXOOHW IURP D FDOLEHU 0DJQXP FDUWULGJHEXWDOVRZLWKWKRVHIURPD6SHFLDOFDUWULGJH:LWKRXWFRQVLGHULQJWKH LQIRUPDWLRQGHGXFHGIURPWKHILUHDUPDQGWKHFDUWULGJHFDVHIURPWKHVDPHVKRRWLQJ LQFLGHQWLWPD\EHKDUGWRGHFLVLYHO\FODVVLI\WKLVEXOOHWWRRQHRIWKHWZRFDOLEHUV
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
7KRXJKPXFKOHVVFRPPRQDVLPLODUVLWXDWLRQDOVRDSSOLHVLQFDVHVZKHUHWKH FDOLEHU RI D FDUWULGJH FDVH FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG EXW ZKHQ WKH FDUWULGJH FDVH VKRZV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZKLFK LPSO\ WKDW LW PD\ KDYH EHHQ ILUHGZLWK D ILUHDUPRI DQRWKHU FDOLEHU6XFKFDOLEHUPL[XSVKDYHEHHQVKRZQWRRFFXULQFDVHZRUN>@$VDQ H[DPSOHDEXOJHG$XWRFDUWULGJHFDVHFRXOGKDYHEHHQILUHGZLWKHLWKHUDPP 0DNDURYRUDPP/XJHUFDOLEHUILUHDUP:KHQVXFKDPELJXRXVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDUH REVHUYHG WKH FRPELQHG IUHTXHQF\ RI RFFXUUHQFH RI DOO FDOLEHUV WKDW DUH GHHPHG SRVVLEOHVKRXOGEHHVWLPDWHGLQWKHUHOHYDQWSRSXODWLRQ7KLVZLOOOLNHZLVHORZHUWKH HYLGHQWLDOVWUHQJWKUHIOHFWLQJWKHLQFUHDVHGXQFHUWDLQW\RIWKHFDOLEHUFODVVLILFDWLRQRI WKHXVHGILUHDUP *5&PHDVXUHPHQW /HWXVQRZFRQVLGHUWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHJHQHUDOULIOLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFV*5& 7KHVHFRQFHUQWKHQXPEHUGLUHFWLRQRIWZLVWDQGZLGWKRIWKHODQGVLQDULIOHGEDUUHO DQGWKXVRIWKHODQGHQJUDYHGDUHDV/($VLQILUHGEXOOHWV:KLOHWKHQXPEHURI ODQGVDQGWKHGLUHFWLRQRIWZLVWFDQXVXDOO\EHHDVLO\GHULYHGIURPWKH/($VLQWKH EXOOHWWKHZLGWKFDQEHPRUHWURXEOHVRPH7KHWUDQVIHURIWKHZLGWKRIWKHODQGVLQ WKHEDUUHOWRWKHEXOOHWPD\YDU\EHWZHHQGLIIHUHQWEXOOHWVHVSHFLDOO\EHWZHHQEXOOHWV RIGLIIHUHQWPDWHULDOVDQGVKDSHV)RUH[DPSOHWKHZLGWKRIWKH/($VRIWKHVDPH EDUUHOPLJKWEHEURDGHULQVRIWHUOHDGEXOOHWVWKDQLQMDFNHWHGEXOOHWV)XUWKHUPRUH
2
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·V RU LQVWLWXWLRQ·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·V W\SH PDQXIDFWXUHU DQGRUPRGHOFDQEHREVHUYHGDQGFODVVLILHGZLWKRXWDORWRIXQFHUWDLQW\HJFDOLEHU
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
7KHFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI*ORFNSLVWROVDUHYHU\GLVWLQFWIURPPRVWRWKHU ILUHDUPV (VSHFLDOO\ WKH TXDVLUHFWDQJXODU VKDSH RI WKH ILULQJ SLQ DSHUWXUH LQ FRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHHOOLSWLFDOVKDSHGILULQJSLQDUHTXLWHVSHFLILFIRU*ORFNSLVWROV *HQHUDWLRQ WKURXJK %HFDXVH WKHVH FODVV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DUH VR GLVWLQFW DQG WUDQVIHUZHOOIURPWKHILUHDUPWRWKHFDUWULGJHFDVHLWFDQEHH[SHFWHGWKDWDOPRVW RI WKH FDUWULGJH FDVHV ILUHG ZLWK *ORFN SLVWROV ZLOO VKRZ WKHVH FODVV FKDUDFWHULVWLFVUHVXOWLQJLQDYHU\KLJKVHQVLWLYLW\:KLOHIDUOHVVFRPPRQZRUOGZLGH FDOLEHU PP /XJHU 6PLWK DQG :HVVRQ PRGHO 6:) DQG FDOLEHU PP /XJHU 6SULQJILHOG PRGHO ;'6 SLVWROV KDYH VLPLODU FODVV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DV WKH *ORFN SLVWROV >@6HYHUDOSXEOLFDWLRQV>@ GLVFXVVKRZ LWLVSRVVLEOH WRGLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQWKHVHILUHDUPPDQXIDFWXUHUVEXWDVWKHFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDUHYHU\VLPLODU WKLV PLJKW QRW DOZD\V EH SRVVLEOH RU GRQH FRUUHFWO\ $V D UHVXOW VRPH UHFRYHUHG FDUWULGJH FDVHV ZLWKRXW D UHFRYHUHG ILUHDUP PD\ LQFRUUHFWO\ EH FODVVLILHG DV EHORQJLQJWRD*ORFNSLVWROORZHULQJWKHVSHFLILFLW\$VDUHVXOW*ORFNSLVWROVZLOO VHHPPRUHFRPPRQLQWKHSRSXODWLRQGDWDEDVHWKDQWKH\DFWXDOO\DUHPDNLQJWKH UHSRUWHGHYLGHQWLDOVWUHQJWKORZHUWKDQLWVKRXOGEH
7KHFODVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIFDOLEHU$XWR&UYHQD=DVWDYDPRGHOSLVWROV DUH OHVV GLVWLQFW WKDQ WKRVH RI *ORFN SLVWROV 6RPH RI WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ WKH FDUWULGJH FDVHV LQFOXGH D YHU\ VWUDLJKW KRUL]RQWDO LPSUHVVLRQ RI WKH HMHFWRU DQG D
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·VPDQXIDFWXUHUDQGPRGHOIURPWKHFDUWULGJHFDVHV7KHHIIHFWRIWKLVLVWKDW LIQRILUHDUPLVUHFRYHUHGIURPDVKRRWLQJLQFLGHQWWKHFDUWULGJHFDVHVZLOOQRWEH UHFRJQL]HG DV KDYLQJEHHQ ILUHG IURPD &UYHQD =DVWDYD PRGHO SLVWRO EXW ZLOO SUREDEO\EHMXGJHGWRKDYHEHHQILUHGE\DQXQNQRZQRWKHUFDOLEHU$XWRILUHDUP 7KLVLQFRUUHFWFODVVLILFDWLRQZLOOORZHUWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHILUHDUP·VPDQXIDFWXUHU DQGPRGHOFODVVLILFDWLRQZLWKDQXQNQRZQPDJQLWXGHDVFDUWULGJHFDVHVWKDWZHUH LQGHHG ILUHG ZLWK D &UYHQD =DVWDYD PRGHO SLVWROV DUH LQFRUUHFWO\ DWWULEXWHG WR DQRWKHUXQNQRZQFODVV$VDUHVXOW&UYHQD=DVWDYDPRGHOSLVWROVVHHPUDUHU WKDQWKH\DUHLQWKHLQIHUUHGILUHDUPGDWDEDVHZKLOHWKHDFWXDOO\UHFRYHUHGILUHDUPV ZLOOSURYLGHDEHWWHUHVWLPDWHRIWKHLUIUHTXHQF\RIRFFXUUHQFH
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´&DOLEHUPP/XJHU*ORFN6PLWK :HVVRQPRGHO6:)RU6SULQJILHOGPRGHO;'6µSLVWROVLQVWHDGRIWKHLQIHUUHG
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