Economic module

The total expenses of tourists and locals on activities related to corals and forest contribute to the definition of the tourism and recreational value. The state of the reef, the state of the forest and the change in world GDP determine a growth in tourism and the average amount of money that tourists spend once they arrive on the island. As seen in Figure 5.4 cruise tourists show an increase in the first 10 years reaching a maximum of 268,000. After 10 years the amount of annual visiting cruise tourists shows a drastic decline. Stay over tourists decline from the onset. Eventually the degrading qualitative state of the forest and the reef exacts its toll. Tourists are not as likely to visit or return to Bonaire if the nature it has to offer is in a degraded state.

Such declines in the tourist populations entering Bonaire has a negative influence on the total revenue produced by the tourism sector.

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Figure 5.4 Change in the number of tourists for the baseline scenario

The biodiversity value is determined by summing the research, medicinal and bio-prospecting value. Figure 5.5 illustrates the variation of these values over the studied time period. There are different factors that contribute to the variation in the

biodiversity value. First, due to a decrease in coral cover and mature forest, the chances of finding medicinal plants declines. However, since the population size of Bonaire is expected to increase so will the number of people benefiting from the biodiversity services. Therefore, the medicinal value of the forests increases as the population increases. This value is calculated by the amount of money is saved by not visiting a doctor and instead using medicinal plants found in the forest.

Figure 5.5 Change of the Biodiversity Value for the baseline scenario

The existence of a high diversity of flora and fauna in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems also generates economic benefits by means of non use values. The aesthetic values of the ecosystems are part of non use benefits people obtain through spiritual enrichment, cognitive development, reflection and aesthetic experiences.

Many people find beauty or aesthetic value in various aspects of ecosystems, as reflected in the support for parks, scenic drives, and the selection of housing locations and enjoyment of scenery. The WTP of Dutch households to preserve nature declines as the state of the reef and forest declines. In a report by van Beukering et al. (2012) the willingness to pay for the preservation of Bonaire’s nature is presented. During the next 30 years as a result of coral reef and forest degradation it is assumed that the WTP of Dutch citizens to improve Bonaire’s nature quality will decrease. After 30 years

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the WTP of Dutch households for nature conservation in the Caribbean Netherlands will have decreased from $61 million to $26 million per year (Figure 5.6). The WTP for locals decreases as this value also depends on the state of the reef and forest.

Figure 5.6 Change of the Non-use Value for the baseline scenario

To determine the fisheries value it is necessary to know the amount of fish caught for sale. The total amount of fish catch in the commercial industry varies between 26 tons to 64 tons. The negative influence in the Baseline Scenario is the presence of Lion fish, which decrease the capacity of fish populations to replenish their stocks. The total fisheries value thus decreases accordingly. The initial value of $0.93 million eventually declines to a value of $0.28 million (Figure 5.7). After 25 years the fish caught in the commercial fisheries will be too low for commercial catch (i.e. costs exceed the benefits). The only reason why the fisheries value as a whole does not become

negative is because the recreational fisheries still has a large value. The initial value of recreational fisheries is $0.67 million and declines to $0.28 million after 30 years.

Figure 5.7 Variation of the Fisheries value for the baseline scenario

The value of the agriculture and livestock is not influenced by the state of either the forest or the reef. It is simply a question how much of the land cover on the island is allocated to agricultural use or to the development of mature forest. It is for this reason that the total value remains constant at $0.3 million.

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According to Cesar et al., (2002), it is the state of the reef that influences the variation in the average house price by ± 1.3%. Beside this, the global GDP is the major

contributor that defines the price of a house and thus the amenity value. Currently, the average price of a house was calculated to be $0.15 million, and will decrease slightly to a value of $0.14 million. The decline can be ascribed to the fact that the value of real estate close to the beaches will drop as these locations become less favourable due to a decline in coral cover and overall aesthetics.

The ability of Bonaire’s coral reef to protect the coast is monetized by calculating the avoided damage of properties close to the coast in case of a hurricane in the absence of coral reef. The value is calculated by assessing the damage costs avoided during the event of a hurricane by the presence of corals. With a once in every 30 years hurricane frequency and a damage of 16.6% to the total house value, the coastal protection value of coral reefs will decline from $2.93 million to $2.85 million in 30 years. The reason for this decrease is the decline in the general state of the reef. Since the overall

capacity for corals in Bonaire to mitigate damage on coastal infrastructure and housing small, the coastal protection value declines very little. Furthermore, it is also the dead coral that buffer incoming waves and thus help mitigate damage to coastal

infrastructure.