Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook January 28 – February 03, 2016
An increase in rains was observed in many parts of the region during the past week
NO HAZARDS
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Seasonable pattern of light rains remains in place.
During the past week, many areas saw in increase in rainfall. Upwards of 100mm was observed in the region near the Gulf of Belize. These totals are anomalously high for this time of year. Many other neighboring areas, and those across much of Guatemala, observed between 10 and 25mm of rain. Moderate rains also spread into central and southern Nicaragua and neighboring Costa Rica, with many locations receiving 10-25mm. Over the previous 30-day period, dating to December 28th, the pattern remains generally unchanged. Positive anomalies can now be observed over some local areas of northwestern Honduras, while minor negative anomalies remain throughout many other parts of the region. Dating to the beginning of December and the Apante season, the greatest deficits are found in the Petén Department of Guatemala and in southeastern Nicaragua. Vegetation indices remain quite good in most areas, especially in Pacific facing portions of the region. The region along the western border of Petén Department in Guatemala is the primary place where vegetation indices indicate any chance for concern about moisture deficits.
For the upcoming outlook period, near-average conditions are expected again across the Central America region. Light to moderate rains should be contained to the Caribbean coastal facing departments. The greatest possibility for more substantial rainfall totals (>25mm) resides in parts of Northern Honduras. Light rains are likely for eastern portions of Nicaragua as well as central and northern portions of Guatemala, while little rain can be expected elsewhere. Minimum temperatures are likely to remain below normal across northern parts of the region, but are not expected to dip below freezing anywhere this week.
Week 1 Rainfall Total and Anomaly Forecast (mm) January 28 – February 03, 2016
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
