Peter Raap
!" # " $$%
& ' (
)
&!**!$+,
-
) .
/ 0)
1 # 2( 3& "
4 - ,
5 6$$
78$$
9 5 9 &
/ # & - :
;
9 !8
78 8 <9
& =
- - - - >
' -
( & # $$%
Summary
4 ; ?4 @ ## 0 ( A #
/ 4 # ## 0
/ 4 # # /
A # ## # # # -
( -
?9 2 # @ 4 ## 0 ## 0 A #
4 - # ## 0
: 4 ## 0 # ( 0
## ## 0 # # 4 #
# ## /
( # 2 0 #
/ - - ? B @ 4 /
45 # C # / ##
4 A # 0 ( - C 0 $!$ : #
# 0 # # # ?4 5@(
/ 0 - - # / 0( "
4 5 - D 0
- E 0 - 4
0 / ;
/ - # # # 0 / # (
0 . -
; # ?
## # # @ # 0 0F/
; 0 - ( 0 # #
/ 0 - 0 0 #
2# - / 0 - - # 0(
-
/ - # # 0 # #
/ $$* /
# :0 # $$* (
$!$ 4 $$* 4 / - 4
$$* - 4 # / -
4 # 0 $$* / 0 0
# 2 4 #
- # / 2#
( # 4
# / 2 $!$ 4 0 #
0 0
# / 0
/ 0 4 - A # ( 0
2 0 A # 4 # 0 4 #
& C / 0 4 # .
@ # # 0 @
- # / 0 2# - (
4 # - A #
4 # 2 0 / 2# - -
# / 0 4 - #
#0 0 # / - " 4 5
# # 4 # - 0
/ 0 # -
- 0 0 / 0 - #
- 0 0 4 # / 0 - 0
0 ; # # # 4
# # F/ ;
4 # 0 # - #
# / # - 0
0 # - # /
# G/ # H / #
- 2# -
4 # # #
/ # 0 0
( # # 4 # :
( 4 /
2# - - 0
/ 0 - - 9 # #
$$* # /
;
/
( -
- 0 # 4 0# A # # 0
- 9 # C - /
" 4 5 # 0
#
# I # ( 0
Preface
( & # $$%
( # /
# 0 /
# # 3 (
) 0 # # - ( #
< # 0 ( - 0
/ - D ; / # #
- # - / ;
# #
# # ## # (
0 ? @ - ## -
0 ? ' @ / 0 0 0
- 0 ( # 0 -
0 0 0
/ 0 0 = & : < # (
0 0 0 / 5 -E 3 ( # (
0 # 0 # / 0 = 9 #
0 # 0 0 0 0 ##
2
/ # # / # & - # 0
/ : 2 # 2#
&# &0 = # - (
0 - : ( 0 # 0 0
0 : ' - ( J 0) ( = 3 9 ( = ( 5
: : ( 0 0#
- ( 2# 0 ## ' 3 (
/& ' 0#
0 )0 # 9 5 ( 0
0 - # # # 9 & 0 0
( 0 2# 0
# " 4 5 - 4
/ 0 ( ( 0 # K
0
5 #(
& -
-
ABBREVIATION LIST... VII
1 INTRODUCTION... 1
1.1 STRUCTURE, READING THE REPORT [OUTLINE]... 2
1.2 THE COMPANY... 5
1.3 LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG) ... 6
1.4 THE LNG SUPPLY CHAIN... 7
1.5 THE “WORLD LNG” MODEL... 9
2 DESIGN AND OBJECTIVE FOR THIS STUDY... 10
2.1 PROBLEM INTRODUCTION... 11
2.2 REASON FOR THIS STUDY... 12
2.3 PREVIOUS WORK... 13
2.3.1 TUD_study, Development of “the world LNG model 2010” ... 13
2.3.2 Further research done on the model... 14
2.4 THEORETICAL POINT OF VIEW ON THE RESEARCH... 16
2.4.1 What determines a good model: according to de Leeuw ... 16
2.4.2 How to test a model: different types of analysis ... 16
2.4.3 How to test a model: verification and validation... 16
2.5 RESEARCH GOAL, QUESTION AND SCOPE... 20
2.5.1 Goal... 20
2.5.2 Main research question:... 20
2.5.3 Sub questions... 20
2.5.4 Scope ... 21
3 THE “REAL” WORLD (2004) ... 23
3.1 INTRODUCTION... 23
3.1.1 “Real” world reflected in the 2004 model... 24
3.1.2 LNG Costs and cost variance ... 25
3.2 LIQUEFACTION PLANTS... 26
3.2.1 Algerian Liquefaction factory... 26
3.3 LNG TRANSPORT... 29
3.3.1 Transport costs function, a calculation example ... 29
3.4 WORLD TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOUR... 32
3.4.1 World demanding gas market are on the northern hemisphere... 32
3.4.2 Market demand depends on temperature alone?... 33
4 VALIDATION OF THE WORLD LNG MODEL ... 34
4.1 STEPS TAKEN IN THE VALIDATION PROCESS... 34
4.2 SARGENT’S VALIDATION AND VERIFICATION THEORY... 37
4.3 COLLECTING DATA 2004... 38
4.3.1 Input data ... 38
4.3.2 Calculating missing data (local production) ... 39
4.3.3 Output data... 40
4.4 MARKETS CONSUMING THE WRONG VOLUME... 42
4.4.4 The load factor (BT: Dutch bedrijfstijd)... 44
4.5 IMPLEMENTATION ERROR... 46
4.5.1 Cause... 46
4.5.2 Conclusion... 47
4.5.3 New model liquefaction factory ... 47
4.5.4 New Refcase 2004... 47
4.6 THREE DIFFERENT TESTS... 49
4.6.1 The first test: LNG producers and European LNG inflow ... 49
4.6.2 The second test, part 1: Effect of changing the minimum European LNG import ... 52
-
4.6.3 The second test, part 2: European market flexible import as a function of high peak costs ... 54
4.6.4 Reason for the minimum LNG import level to Europe... 55
4.6.5 The third test: The Suez channel... 56
4.7 FURTHER RESEARCH ON SPAIN AND THE SUEZ CHANNEL... 59
4.8 CONCLUSIONS... 61
5 SENSITIVETY ANALYSIS ... 63
5.1 REASON FOR THIS ANALYSIS... 63
5.2 COST CONTRIBUTION OF A LIQUEFACTION FACTORY... 63
5.2.1 Liquefaction facility costs... 64
5.2.2 A country’s risk influences the IRR... 64
5.2.3 Expensive and cheap liquefaction costs... 65
5.3 LNG PRODUCTION SENSITIVITY AS A FUNCTION OF PRODUCTION COSTS... 66
5.3.1 Method “oat” ... 66
5.3.2 The outcome ... 67
5.3.3 Effect of changing the costs function of the liquefaction areas... 68
5.4 “THE CHAIN OF WINDSHIELD WIPERS” ... 71
5.4.1 A windscreen wiper ... 71
5.4.2 Difference in transport costs in the world model... 73
5.5 CONCLUSION... 74
6 CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION... 75
6.1 CONCLUSIONS... 75
6.2 DISCUSSION... 76
6.2.1 The spot market ... 77
6.2.2 The windshield wiper function... 78
6.2.3 LNG is not only an additional supply source... 78
6.2.5 Model characteristics ... 79
6.2.6 Advice concerning the 2010 model... 80
7 ABOUT THIS STUDY... 81
7.1 A CRITICAL VIEW ON THIS STUDY... 81
7.2 FURTHER RESEARCH SUGGESTIONS... 82
REFERENCE LIST ... 83
DATA SOURCES... 84
LIST OF FIGURES ... 85
LIST OF TABLES ... 86 APPENDIX 1 DIFFERENT COST FUNCTIONS ... A APPENDIX 2 VALUE CHAIN ...B APPENDIX 3 CONVERSION TABLE... C APPENDIX 4 LNG TERMINALS IN EUROPE 2005... D APPENDIX 5 ALGERIAN PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND OBSERVED OUTPUT 2003/2004 ...E APPENDIX 6 THEORETICAL BUFFER SIZE ALGERIA 2004 EQUALS 1,2 BCM ...F APPENDIX 7 GLOBAL SEASONS NORTHERN / SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ... G APPENDIX 8 LIQUEFACTION / GASIFICATION CAPACITIES, SOURCE CERA... H APPENDIX 9 MARKET DEMAND 2004, SOURCE CEDIGAZ...I APPENDIX 10 CEDIGAZ TABLE 4 – LNG TRADE 2004 ... J APPENDIX 11 POINTS A-B-C-D, THEIR GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION... K
-
APPENDIX 12 LNG FLOW THROUGH THE POINTS ABCD IN 2004 ...L APPENDIX 14 LIQUEFACTION ASIA DECREASE COMPENSATES MIDDLE EAST INCREASE ... N APPENDIX 15 MODEL OUTPUT FLEXIBILITY LNG FLOW POINTS ABCD AND TOTAL TO EUROPE... O APPENDIX 16 READING MCA GRAPHS, VOLUME CALCULATION EXAMPLE...P APPENDIX 19 THE IMPORTANT LNG TRANSPORT ROUTES / WINDSHIELD WIPERS ... S APPENDIX 20 CALCULATION “CHAIN OF WINDSHIELD WIPERS” ...T
-
ABBREVIATION LIST
:/ :
:9) : 9 )
: : &;
/& / # & -
<
4 4 ;
4 5 / 5 B # #
)/5 ) / #
)9 ) 9 ##
L L 0
M -
/M / M -
/; / ; N* )=E O
/ / #
M& M &
! #
! "
" #
1 INTRODUCTION
/ # - # #
0 - (
## - 0 # -
' A ?':.@ A A
0 )0 - -
# - 0 # 0 0 / 0
/ 0 ) ?/) @> 0 )
. /) A A /)
- - -
# # / 0) # - (
- # ( - #
/ 0 0 2 # 0 # /
0 # / # & - /
# - ( # # #
# # /
" # # ( # # /
0 # 0 #
$$* / 0( /
# A #
# - ( # - #
0 2 # 0 - #
/ 0 /& - - - 0
( 4 ; ?4 @ 4
# ( # - 2 0 / #
( # # 4 2# ! + / #
4 # - - - 0 # / 4
# # # &
! * # # # 4 / # # (
! , /
# 1.1 Structure, Reading the report [outline]
/ # / # - 0
) # 0 / 0
0 . 2 #
0 # ( 2# #
/ # # 0 0D
" 4 5 0( "
/ # & - /
/ # G H 0
/ # / # - /&(
# # # 4 5 4 5
# 0 2 ;
?4 @ ( - - /
# # - /
# 4 ## 0 # - ! * # -
## 0 # 0
( # (
/ # # 0
/ # & - E 4
/ # - 0 / #
# 0 # 4
4 & # 0(
# # 0 0 #
4 5 & + # - ( 0
0 # 0 0
0 $!$ 0 # # ## 0
- # 0
/ - #
/ 2 ? *@ # - - 0 0
; 0 / 0
# - ( 0# 0
0 ## / * 0 -
- # / 0- - (
# - - - ;
- # # ? ,@
( ; ; # /
# - 0 ; 0 /
# 0 # #
0 0 #
# - 0 / #
0 ' 0 0 0
0
/ # G H $$*( G H
2 # - 4 / #
4 $$* # - 0 4 # ( #
# - - 4 $$*
# # 0 / #
4 # # 0
# # ##
+ #
# / #
# # " 4 5 / #
4
/ # - # 4
/ # # #
- # / # H (
# ( 4 - ( #
- 4 # ( A # 4 #
- ( /
# 0 - / 0
; - # - ; (
- 0 / 0
- / # - # (
0# # #
/
- # : ( #
2 #
/ # - /
( 4 # A # 4 ( A A # 4
# # & C / 2 # -
/ # # /
# # #
/ # - 0 0 - #
0 / # # 0 0 #
/ # - # / 0 #
4 ; / 0 4
; / - 0 0
# - / #
; # - 0 0
/ 0 G H( - /
0 ( -
- 0 # / #
" 4 5 # - # -
/ 2 # # 0 #
/ # ;
- # 2
# - 4 5 #
- # - 0
0 / # 2 ; 0
/ # # 2
# - # # 5
- 4 # #
# # ( 0
; 4 ## 0
# 0 ## 0 D 0
#
/ # - - 0 5
0 0 0( 4 -
0 0 # # /
* #
# 4 5 #
- 0 0 ( 0 4 # 0 # 0
4 #
, # 1.2 The Company
? @ /
- 0 !7 * *$ 0
( !7%$( - # -
( 2# 0 !7%+
# 0
- ; #
- 0 - / # & - : ? /&
@ # / &0 .# = 0 $$* N /& $$*O /& 0
0 = 0 $$, ;
# & - 0 - $$*
( - C - ( A22 ) & (
# ( # 0 # ?
/ B & ## 0@ # - ?
@ / # " # C = 0 $$,
/& - # ( - #
0 # - # # - (
/ /& # - 0
# 0 # ( /& # - - 0( 0 # 0
; ( /&
? @ /& # - # # 0(
/& # 0 $$ " / 0 # - - # ( - C
& ?4 @( / # ?4 @( / # & - ?4/@ ) ?4 @ /
) # # ( - #
# / # 4 - # (
!
• 4 ) #
• 4 # - # #
• 4 5 # 0 2 # 2 #
/ 2 B # # ?4 5@
# 0
! "# $
4 5 # - /
A # # # 4 5
- # - 2# " 4 5
4 4 5 C 0 0 A # /
0 ## C - 4 5
# 2 # 0
% # 1.3 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
0 0 # #
2 # - # #
00 (
0 4 ( - ## (
## # ( ( ## 0
0 # D
( 2 2 - - # D
# # ## 0
## - # - # - 0 -
- - 0 / #
# ( # # ## .
# ;
4 ; ( ?4 @ #
; ?"!%+ P9 !!! <@ 3 4 ( -
!E%$$ / # # # 0 ;
0 # ( # C
; # - . ( 0 0
# $(, E4( - 4 - #
!? - @ / - # #
4 ; ( # 0 4
/ # # 4 # ' (
4 # - - # C ? # @
# # 4 # - / - # 4
- - # 0(
0 / 0# " 4
( # 4 ( # - 0 -
# 4 0
# 0# # : # 0
( 4 0 - &# 2
-
!' # - 0 - 4 E ' 0
4 ' -
8 # 1.4 The LNG supply chain
/ - 0 ) A 5 !76$ ## 0 ## 0 5 D
- 0 ## 2 - # # - - (
- # 0 ) A 5 ( 9 # -
- ?!76$@ / - - / 0
- - 0 / # I# 0
- I I ## - I # 0 - ( ##
- ? ' )@ 0 0
/ # 0 - 5 D - 4 ( .# ( .
4 ( ) B& & -
• 4 ' - # 0I ## / 0
0 # E 0
• .# /
• . 4 / ( 0 ## 0
(
• ) & (
# #
• & - / - ( " - (
# (
/ 4 ## 0 - # # : # -
4 ## 0 - # 0
- A2 # -
# 0 4 - ? ## 2 @ / ## 05 -
0 2# ; # / # G H -
## / ## # 2
/ G# H 0 ; # (
; ?4 @ / ?4 @ ( 0
## 0 / ; ## 2 / 4 - #
4 ( 4
/ ? @ - # ( # 4
- 0 / 4 # # .
4 ( /
( 0 ## 0 (
4
; # ? @
% & ' ( (
/ # 0 - 0 ( - - 0
- 0 / - - 0 0 - / - 0
; # 4 ## 0 ( - 0 #
& - 0 ; 0 #
0( - 0 #
: # ## 0 (
6 #
( # 0 # 0
; 0
4 ## 0 # 4 4 - "
4 - ( - 0 4
9 # - 0 2
- ( # 0 E #
/ # 0 > # ;
# - ( # /
- ; # ( # - / 4
## - 0 / 4 #
# / # 0 ( 0 0
. # 0# ? 0@ /
( 0 # 0
-
4 ?4 @ # 0 2 #
4 A # ( 0 # 0
## 0 / A # ; ## /
0 ( 0
? E4 @ # # ( 0 4 #
7 # 1.5 The “World LNG” Model
/ 4 ? @ 0 ( #
# - 4
A # : # 4 ? A # @
# / 0 0
4 : -
# ( # &
# 2 0 / #
( # ( 4 # ( 4 - (
4 # / # /
C ( C ?
@ / C
4
+ # / # A #
# # / A # # (
# - / A #
# # ( # ? #
@ 0 4 0
A # # :0 4 # ( 4 #
## 0 A # 0
) *( +
/ - A #
- A # / -
# A2 # 2
- A ## 0 - 04 # ?4 # @ /
# #
/ # - # 0( 4
4 2 # (
- 0 2#
/ 2
!$ #
2 DESIGN AND OBJECTIVE FOR THIS STUDY
/ # # 4 ?
!@ 4 ## 0 ( A # /
# # 0
# 4 /& ' 2# 0
# /& & + 0 - #
0 / / ( 0
M - 0 / 0 ?/M @( - # 3 4 (
( 0 M - 0 (
? @ / 2 ? *@ #
- / # - 0
( 0# 0 0 0
- - 2# ( * - -
# 0( ;
; # # ( # -
- 0
!! # 2.1 Problem introduction
/ 4 # ## 0 /
4 # # /
Q D A # ## # # # -
( -
?9 2 # @ 4 #0 ## 0 A #
N $$%O
4 - # ## 0
: 4 ## 0 # ( 0
## ## 0 # # 4 #
# ## /
( # 2 0 #
4 ?4 ; @ # -
# # ( # 0 # / 4 2#
# # ( # 4
# - # # ; (
4 A # 2 ( ;
/ # & - 0 A # # 0
4 - A #
& N $$%O # A # #
( / #
## 0 4 / # 0 - A # (
M& ( - # 9 / #
( 4 0 (
<R ? $$+@ 0 0
4 ( 0
! # 2.2 Reason for this study
) 0C
# # # # - ? # 4 5@ /
# 0 # .
0 ( # / #
- 4 5 # # 0#
/ 2# 4 5 # - #
( # # : # 0
# 4 5 A #
G H 0 # # #
A #
/ 0 # # 4 - ( 3 4
# 4 A # # / #
/& - / -
2 - ( # #
0 / - ( # 2 0 ,$$ !$$$
/ ( # 4 #
-
( ; #
/ # 0 # ( 4 5
4 -
4 /
# ? $!$@ 4 A # / #
( # 4 5( A # #
; 0 # ( #
( # 2
!+ # 2.3 Previous work
/ 0 # / ( 0
M - 0 / 0?/M @( - # 3 4 (
( 0 M - 0 ( 3
4 ?2 # @ #
0
2.3.1 TUD_study, Development of “the world LNG model 2010”
/ /M ( # $$, /M S 0( -
# # Q4 D ## Q D $!$ / 0 -
+ * 4 / $!$(
# 0 /& 0C A # /
/ ;
0 # $!$ ? 0 # # # 0
# $!$@ / - 2 0 $$ (
0 D - $!$ - / 0 0
? # @ # A ! & # #
- ? 0 $$,@
/ # )9 /
- # ##
# # ( # # # ? @ # # (
## ( " ? @ A #
2 # ( # # ( (
2# - # # # / (
( # # D A #
A # ( A # #
# # / - (
0 # # . #
( - ## 0 C /
# ( # ? 2# - @
/ /M # # ,
A ( 3 ( A # ( / 0
# - - '
# ( /
# " # ?, @( # " #
) # " # -
2 # D 0 # # ?
0 @ ( ? @
-
) - ## 0 0
2# 0 ? @ / /M S 0 # " # ? -
@ A 3 ? *@
?# @ 0 $!$(
$$* 0
!3 9 # 0 ( 9 ( !77$" $ ,
)9 - ?$+" $$% E$6" $$%@ 0! !+ $ ? !$+@
!* #
/ >
# ?= # ( & < 9 @
> 9 -
0 # 0 ( 9 -
#
, & (
- - 0 /M S 0
4 / A #
0
A # / A # #
/ /M A #
/ - - (
- 0 0A #
/ /M - - - !
/ /M
2 # 4 E " #
# ? 0 0 - @ 0 $!$ 4
# # 0 $!$ & ## -
/ # # - #
# /M S 0 # & C
& # 0 / 2
- # / /M - # -
4 0 $!$ / 0 -
2.3.2 Further research done on the model
/ 0 ( 9 & -
- # 0 /M '
!) - -
- ?# @ 0 $!$
A #
A #
A#!
A# =#&<9
&
5#
90 ' 5#
90 '
3 A
&
!, #
& # 3 A # :0 (
4
A # / A # # A #
( 4 A # - * 0# / # ?# :9 @
# 4 A # * 5 A # 4
0 5 : 4 M& ?/ / @ /
# ?# 9@ # 4 4 0 EA 0# ( #
# A # 4 & C & #
## ' #
; " # 0 0 $!$( -
/ 0( # - D 0 ( 3
' #
# ? # @ / 0 # - -
# & - 2# (
/ - 0 / 2
# # # - 0 2
- & * 0# 0 (
0 # & * + 0
- - # - - #
0 - - #
0
!% # 2.4 Theoretical point of view on the research
/ - - D D /
( 4 2
0 # / 2#
- - # <
2.4.1 What determines a good model: according to de Leeuw
/ 0 - - 4 N 4 $$ O
0 ? # @ # - ## #
0 / # - / 4
## 4 A # 0 / ; 0
0 4 0 # ( ; 0 0 -
( 2 -
# # / # # 4 5
# A # /
# / - :0
4 ( - ( # 0
( # 0 $T G H
- * + #
/ - # # -
3 ( 4 5D
- - # /
0 - 4 5D 2# -
2.4.2 How to test a model: different types of analysis
= 5 9 < # N< !77,O 0# 0 #
' - 0# 0 /
( & ( & - 0 0 ( M 0 0 .# C ?
- @ < # 0 '
- 0 #
- - # / 2
# - 0 0 & # -
- - 0 0 #
# # 2 # ? ; 0@
- ## -
# - -
# # / 2 0 0
# C 0 - ?@
2.4.3 How to test a model: verification and validation
< # # # N< !77+O 0 0
- - ? B @ < !77, ?
# - @ - ( 0
B 2 / 0 B #
# # E # N< !77+O
$
% &
N< !77+O #
# 0 0 & ( -
!8 #
#
# ( # 0 (
? 4 $$ @ / G H( #
/ 0 # A # /
> - # 0 0
4 5D # 0 0#
$ % &
< 0 B G 2
H / #
# B / # /
# < D ; ( 00 # ( - (
; - ; 0 / - - 0 B
;
/ ; 2 . # (
0 E# # 0 #
?G H@ & - ; ## ( # < !@
# # # ( @
# # ( +@ # #
0 ( *@ # # ( # -
; 0< N< !77+O(
4 ## 0 ; - 0 #
! / ; 0< ( G # # H
- - # # #
# - 0 0
( 0 2 - 0 /
/
( ## # 0
; ( G # H( 0 0
0( #
# # & * , ; ( #
- 4 # :0
# 2#
4 # -
+ / ; G # # 0 H 3
; 0 0- 0 # 0 # -
# 0 ; 0
; 0(
- #
* / ; G H 3 0 # 0
? - # @ 0 &
# 0 ( 0 # ? #
( - @ / ; ## (
- # )0 #
0
!6 #
. 0 - # 0(
2 ; # ? ## # # @
# 0 0F / ; 0
- < - # !@ (
@ ; # ( +@ & #
( *@ - 0 0 0 ,@ 3 2 - 2
! / - ( 0 # #
0 # - ; ( - 0 -
" 2 ( -
- - (
# #
#
0 # # & #
; ## # /
- # C 2 / 0
0 -
# / 0# :
- 0 # #
0 # 2# #
0 0 / & "/
+ - 0 # ( 0
; - ; 0
# / # 0 ( 0
# 0 ? @ - - -
& ; 0 - # / 0 -
0 - 0 # ( ;
; 0 / 0 #
D 0
* ) # - (
- ( #
/ 0 ## 0 - 0 0 (
D - 2# ?
0 @ - # / - 0
0 ## 0 & - 0 0
0< 0 -
# # ? ##
@ 0 0 0 0 - # 0
# - 2 ) 9 ! #
# - / 0 - 0 #
0 0 0 <
0 # - 0( (
0 / - 0 0 # 0 #
0 #
!) 9 ## 2 2# 0 #
-
!7 #
, / # ? 0 @(
" ' ? @ 0 2
0 '? @ # 0 < ?!77+@
# 2 # 0 ?
2 @( # ? 0 2@( - 0 ? 2@ /
0 2 ( 2 2
2 #
- 0 9 - - 0# 0
# ? 0
- @ - 0 2
2 - # (
0 #
2 # # ( 2# ' - (
# - ; ( - 0 0
##
/ D # # - - (
- 0 - #
/ 0 # - # # - ?
0 @ # ( 0 # # ( 0
0 0
/ ( B # # #
0 . N !77$O
- # 0 # ( -
( D
$ # 2.5 Research goal, question and scope
2.5.1 Goal
/ - #
( # ) # "
& *
+
/ 4 5 # # 4 A # /
( # # # 4 0 /
- 0 9 0 -
# # /
## 2# 4 5 # / 2#
# # / 0
( - 4 # #
2.5.2 Main research question:
; 0 # - # ( # (
0( # - - ; 0 # 0
N ( /.)O / ;
/ 3 4 # 0 / 3
- # /M S 0 # 9 & ?- !
$$,@ / ( 0 0 - /
- 4 A # /
# 4 A # 0 $T( 0
/ 0 0 0- 4 - 4
2.5.3 Sub questions
( ( - # /
; - - 0 4 /
0 - # # #
/ ;
' 4 - F
/ 3 4 - 0
- F
0 - 0 - 0 0
/ 2 4 5 4 F
/ # - ; # ;
! #
/ D # - (
# - - : - 0 0 (
- # - / 0 -
# - - # - #
? $T@( - 0-
# 0 3
0 ( 2 4 5
2.5.4 Scope
/ < D ## N<
!77,O( - ( ( - 0 0 / < D
0 ?!77,( * @ /
M 0 0 .# C (
- ( 2 - /
- # ( - 0
/ - # 0 - ;
45 ; # 0# #
( ## # ; - / #
# / #
; - $$*
/ - $!$ - $$*
- & . (
/ # # - - 0 , #
0 / # - .
0 0( # 3 0
0 4 ( 4 A # -
# # 4 5 # ; #
/
+' ( 0
4 5 #
: 0
+
#
# # 0( 0
# / # # 4
A # ? # A # 0# @ / #
A # ( 0 # 0 / # 0
" 4 5 0 # 0 /
# - / - # #
# 0> 4 A #
? @ 4 5D # 2
# 4
+ #
3 THE “REAL” WORLD (2004)
/ # # 4 $$* # - 0 4
# ( # 4 - - /
# 4 / G H # -
- 4 - ( # -
0 / - #
4 $$* 2 ( # 0 /M
/ # 2 0 # ; 0? + @ /
# ## 4 ? + +@ / 0
# G H
0 # - / # ;
0 + / #
# -
3 0 -
# # - # -
0
3.1 Introduction
4 0 - /
( ( : ( ( 4 0 ( ) 0 ( ( . ( L ( /
/ / - ) A 0
$$* - 2# 4 N9 C $$,O /
- ?M& @ " ?)
A @ / # # 4 #
# $$% 0 A 0# -
2# # $$* # 4 &
# # 4 - 0 - / *8
# $$* / - A # ( 7
? ( = # ( & < / @( -
& % 3 4
# / 4 # #
## ( 4 $$*
* #
1 & / 0 2%33, #' $
/ 4 # # $$* ; !6$ (
# # 6$$
? 6$$ :9)@ A # %$$ :9) > +,
:9) 6$$ :9) $$ :9)
& - M ?&M@ %$$ :9)
( D 4 # $$* = #
# 4 # > #
# # # - 04
( 4 # 0 # # # #
/ # 4 $$* # 0 !%7 # 4 -
/ - - # +$$ 4 ! / - #
- 0 04 - !(6 4 - # !*,$$$
4 # & ( - ## 2 0!
0 # 0
3.1.1 “Real” world reflected in the 2004 model
( 0 4 # $$* 4
# 2# # $$% $!$ (
0 # 4 A # $$* - ( 4
2 / $$* - 4 # (
?40 EA 0# @ " ( 8
!+$$ 4 ; !6$ ( # %$$
A 0# 0 $$*( # 0 4 ##
& A ( A 0) A M
, #
4 & %33,
$!$ ? # 0 @
- 4 0 $$*( 4 0#
/ A 3
8 4 $$* 4
( " # ? $!$@ #
? $$*@
3.1.2 LNG Costs and cost variance
/ 4 C / # -
- A # N
$$+O 4 ( 0 0 - 6 /
- (
5 & 0 ( 2 #6 %33)$
( G2# B # H G; H
; 0 :0
- ( # - ;
' - ; /
## - / - -
# ( 0 4 /
-
9 0 # ( # -
# - 3 # (
# - #
0 / $$+ 0
# # ; ## #
-
!!)): UV 6
&
% # 3.2 Liquefaction plants
4 ; # ; /
2 # ; 0(
4 / ; 0 ;
- # !E%$$ - / # 0 #
## 4 0 ( %$$ # -
! 4 & ## - 0 0 ## 4 #
# # #
/M S 0 ; - ? @
4 / # 0 /
( ; 0 #
? @ # 0 / 0 # 0 4
# / 0( ; #
4 / 0 - ! -
- ( 4 D # 0 0- ( #
( # 2 # / 0 #
4 - # # - A
; 0 # 4 # 0 / 2
- 0 / 2 -
0 # " # - ' 0 ( N' 0 $$%O(
# 0 0 0 # ,)/5 0
? # # 0@ ( # %( )/5 0 ' 0 (
0 # #
3 ; # ; 0 # 0? #
# 0@( # - 4 0 #
0 0 0 0 # ( - 2 4 /
# 4 # ?
# @ # - 0 0- (
/ ( # 4 # #
-
3.2.1 Algerian Liquefaction factory
/ A # 4 ## 0 2 0 4 #
/ ## - A # 4 # $$*
# 0 A # / # 4
## # ( 0 A # ? ( : (
&# ( / 0@( - 4 M &
4 2# $$ NA O ( ## A #
0 # # ; # 0# $$6
- # 2# 4 #
$$* 2# # ; 0 & ? @ / -
0 ?9A9& $$*@
# # # 0( $$*
# 0 / 0 $$* 2 (
! ; 0
# # 0 # - 0?
9 C 9 @( 0 # 0 # 0
8 #
# - 0 $$+ A2 0 # - D
? @ # 0 2 4 #
## 2 , # - # C /
0 - - 0 04 # 0 # ?0 0@ # 0
C $$+ $$* - 78T / 78T #
# 0 0# - 0# : 0 0
# 4 2 # 0( (
4 # - 2 0 4 (
/M D # ; )0 0#
# ? @ 4 # ?7,"!$$T # 2
# 0@ - 4 2 0
/ 0# 4 0 3
0# 0 2 4 ## 0( ## 0
2 0? ,T@ 0#
/ # - ! 4 0 ?
7@
7 & 8 %33)9%33,
0 ; 2 0 4 # - / &
$$* 0 2# # ( G H0 4 #
2 / ! # - 7(
2 0 # # 0# ? $$+@ /
0# # # - 4 2 0
2 04 # ( 0
- ?- @ ) ) 2 2 0W
V ? 2" - @E-
2 0"
V ? " - @E-
:9) :9)X! 0 0 :9) :9) 5 - 5 -
/ $$+ (* 7(! !(%, (6 W!8T "+ T
/ $$* ( , 8($ !(6% (,, W!+T "!8T
* 8
!/ # 04 # ?A $$%@ A # 04
# ?3 $$, @
Algeria production LNG [BCM/month]
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec
algeria totaal 2003 algeria totaal 2004
6 #
/ 0 # 2 4 0 0
- - # 0? # @
# 2 4 4 2
; 0
## 2 % C 4 2 0
/ - !( :9) 3 4 /
C 0 # 0 7$$ $$$ +N 4 $$+O
!( :9) ?! $$ $$$ $$$ +@ / ; 0
2 4 # D ; 0 ;
/ ;
# 2 4 # / 2 # # - C 4
; 0
/ ( G4 # # # # 4 #
$T 2 0H? / !@ / 0 0 # ; #
# 0( 4 # 2 0 - $$* #
& ; # - 2 4
#
7 # 3.3 LNG Transport
/ # 4 ; ?4 @ 0 0 # 2 # 4
# 0 # # 0 0(
0 # 4 4 - C !+,
$$ 4 0( 0# C 4 # # 0 !*, $$$ 4
# !$ # 0 ,% $$$ (
4 - , 4 #
4
- C 4 -
3& ( -1333
/ 4 $$* ? $$,@ # # / 4
- - - # # 0? !$$ @ #
# !8T 4 # # ( - # (
C # / - - # 0 !*$ 6$ #
4 C !$$ !!*$ # 0
/M S& 0 # # / # -
## # ( ?2 @ /
# 2 0 0 4 #
# 4 / 4
! ( # # C # 0 #
4 - - ( ? # @
; 0 0 - 0 - /
# # ( #
4 #
& ?9 $$*@( # 0
3 - # (
# 0 4
( 4 - - # # (
2 # 0 ( # #
# # - #
/ # # - # 2 # 0 - C
4 -
3.3.1 Transport costs function, a calculation example
4 ## - 2 2 ? !!@
2 ( 4 - / (
#( 2 / 2
!4 # 0!$$ $$$ " !+$ $$$ V 7T ( !+$ $$$ Y !*$ $$$ V *7T
&
& 99 "" 22
+$ #
( # - 2 # (
$T ( !6T # # G H
( 2 6$T( %6T ( ( # (
2
. ( #.( %33,$
# # - 4 -
0# 4 - # ! !( 7$$ E 0 4
4 0 ? @ !,T
/ # 0 !,T -
# !! - # 0#
4 - M&Z!,, NA $$*O/ $(!, X!,, E+%,
V %* $$$ M& E 0 / ; !!( %6T 04 -
; %* $$$ M& 0# 4 - # 0 !*, /
2 # # - 2 0 !*, 4 - ( 4 -
# # 4
/ - 4 - / #
# #
. ( ( :+8 6
/ 4 # #
4 - / 0 2 - ?6$T @
9 %* $$$ M& # 0 ; %6T ?
@
/ 0 ?!$$T@
%* $$$ NM& E 0OE%6T V 7* $$$ NM& E 0O
/ 0 2 ?6$T@
7* $$$ NM& E 0OX6$T V 8, $$$ NM& E 0O
4 - 0
/ ( 0 #
8, $$$ NM& E 0OX N 0OV !,$ $$$ NM& O
/ - 0!*, $$$ 4 ; 68 $$$ $$$
! ! ?! V ! E V ! 6, E@ ? ! X!(6, EX * @ 7$$
0
9 - # 4 0 0 # 0
# 0 %$$
+! #
/ ! +
!,$ !$+NM& E0 OE68 !$%N + OUV$($$ NM& E + O
/ UV $( M& E +
. :
:0 2 ( - 0 4 - - &
0 - ( 0 # 4
# 7$$ 0 A 0 - - 2 ? @
2 ? @ # (
# - #
/ 0 ?!$$T@ ( # - V 7* $$$ NM& E 0O
4 # - 7$$ 0( # 68 $$$ $$$
?!*,$$$N +4 OX%$$N + E +4 O@ ( ? E4 -
## 2 +@ A # 0> 2
!! - # (
0 & ( # 0 0? 0@
#
9 # + # # / # NE+ E OV
? 0 W 0@ E ?# N E 0O@ E
# -
?7* !$+NM& E 0OW 7* !$+NM& E 0O@ E7$$N E 0OE?!*,$$$N +4 OX%$$N+ E +4 O@
V $($$$ * M& E + E UV $($$$ M& E + E !
# V $($$$ M& E + E
Transport costs USDcent / cum natural gas / km
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8
900 1800 2700 3600 4500 5400
km
USDcent / cum natural gas
LNG Transport costs
% ( # ,-333 0
$
! M& E+ E!$ $$$
+ #
$!$ # ( 0 -
> 9 ?9 $$*@ -
# ? # # @ .- ? @
# !$ $$$ ( !$T ## -
$$ 4 !*, 4 - ) - ( ,$ 4
- # - - 8T
& ( /M # # /
?
- @ ? # ,( - 0 0 @
3.4 World temperature behaviour
/ 0 # # /
( # - - / #
- 0 0 ## 2 8
; ? # @(
# # 3 - #
# # # 0 ? - - @
( 0 # - / A I
- # 0$ , [ $ \9 $ 0?A5 $$%@ ) (
0 - ( # - # #
# ?< ) $$+@ J 0 # - # 0
3.4.1 World demanding gas market are on the northern hemisphere
/ 4 #
? !+@ / 0D # : - #
9 # . 0 (
# # / #
/
? @ # ?= 0E 0@
) & ( ( ; (
/ # # /M S 0 0 2# -
; #
; -
# # / ; ( #
( - - / - #
0 4 ( 0 #
# 0 2 (
&
++ #
/ # # # 0
? - - # # @ 0 ?
- # # @ - 0 0?
@ 2# 0 ( - 0 -
- 0 0 # -
- ( 2 0 #
2 0 # 0
- # > # -
#
3.4.2 Market demand depends on temperature alone?
) - # # >
- &# 0 # 0#
0 - 0 0 # # &# D
0 ## # 0 # # - 2
0 # 2 A 0 0
? # # @ #
2 -
/ 2
+* # -
. " /
4 VALIDATION OF THE WORLD LNG MODEL
- ( 0 -
0 # - # (
- #
0 & 0
- # / 0 2# *
- - 0 * + # & #
# - #
!* # - # (
# # # #
- # - /
# - - - #
4.1 Steps taken in the validation process
/ # #
!
#
+ ) 4 -
* 9 # - 4 #
, A # 4 #
# # #
# #
# # #
# 0 2 #
# / #
- / # 4 #
# - ? - @ 4 - $$* / # - #
# 4 - # # / -
# - # - $$* / # - # ( #
- ( A # 4 # # - A # 4 #
# - - A # 4 # / - #
0 0 # - / #
0 # - 3 (
- 2
# # - -
2 # # - # 0# # / 0#
$!$ 0# # $!$ : 0#
- # - # 0 $!, /
# - #
+, #
, & ( 0
&
&*+&**&*,&*%!&*%"*%+
+% #
/ # ( # 2# * + /
# # # ( # - 5 0
# - 2 $!$ / - #
- C # 0 # /
; E # ( ( 4 #
# & 9 C 9
/ # # # #
2# 0 0
- # - )
0 0 $!$ $$* # / #
# $$*" $!$" #
0 -
# - # -
$$* 4 # - 4 #
$$* ? 0 0 @ # 4 # #
4 0 4 /
# / 4 # - / #
$$* 3 #
- 4 0 $$* (
# 4 - 0 ) 4
$!$
# - ( # - $$* #
4 # - & # #
4 # 4 - $$* /
* % ! 0 1
+ +/ 4
# > 0 # #
# 4 ? ) @( 2# -
? @ . ( # 0( ; -
# 2 # 2 2#
-
#( # - ( A # 4 2 0! # - 4
# $$* / 2 0 C &#
# # 4 A # ( &# 4
# ?&# 4 # #
- @ (
' 2 34 $05!
+/ & C ?# @
C 3 # $$*
# ## ( 2 0 & C
# -
! 2 0 2 4 # -
/ 2
+8 # 4.2 Sargent’s validation and verification theory
& ?& !77%@ - -
/ ## - 0 #
- - - # #
- - ; # & C
) - - - #
M 0( # 0 ##
Q H ( 2 ;
# A- 0 # # ;
/ - # # # - - ? B @
# / # # 0 - &
# B # # 0 - - - #
B # # 0 0 0 - -
0# 0 - # B # # 0
# 0 : # - # (
0 # - / 0
( & B # -
- # ; / ; - 0
; 2# D # ( E -
' - #
- # - ? C @ # / 0
2 - ## 0 - # 0
# ; # D # #
/ - - # 0 / (
- # # # #
- ( #
D # # 0 - A2#
; # - 2# # (
- 0 - 0 0 (
; 0 3 ( -
- #
& ?& !77%@ - /
( # ( # - - (
- 0 0 0 # #
- ( - 0 # ; # 0 -
# # - - ( 0 #
0 D # ? #
@ / - # /
- # # #
( - 3 # ( 0#
# 0 / # " # # #
- 0
/ 0 - ( # #
( - ( # 2#
- - ( 0 0#
? 0( 0 # E # @ - (
/ - 0 ## # ( (
+6 #
( ( 0
# 0
4.3 Collecting data 2004
/ 0 $$* - 3 4 / 0 $$*
- 0 ( $$,E $$% 0#
# # / - # /
# # ( 0
/ # - # #
/ # - - # / - C
0 $$*( # - - 0 0 0 M - 0
$!$ A2 # ; E
# 0 0 0 4 2#
; E # 2# # 0 5
# / 0 0 ( # -
$!$ $$* 2 #
(
$!$ $$* 0
4.3.1 Input data
/ # 3
4 A # # - ( # - 0( -
# / # 0 ( - # 0 $!$
- - $$*
5
• /
• / ##
• /
• #
/ 0 $$,(
$!$ / $$*
0 $!$ / ##
/ 0 0 & C
4 - -
/ #
# 0
• 4 ; # 0
• # 0
• )
• 4 #
/ 2
/ 2
+7 #
/ ; # #
## 2 6 / # - 09 A 0
N9 $$, $$%O / #
/ 4 # (
4 # 9 C
N9 $$%O( $$* ?
## 2 7@( # " # 0 & ( 2
-
4 # 0 (
/ ( 2
4.3.2 Calculating missing data (local production)
/ # ( 4 (
4 ## 0 / # # (
- # " # ( # #
!, # # # - 2
A A #
( 2 A # - #
4 # 4
# A2#
5 # 5 #
4 4
- #
- &
& 9 C 9A # / 0 # - # 2#
( # - -
0 4 / ( 0 -
/ # ; 0 / -
#
1 &
# 0 2 # / 4 #
4 # - N9 $$%O /
4 # # (
4 # ## 2
# 9 C# - 4 # 0 3
# 4
4 0 0# 4
# 4
4 #
4
#
)
*$ #
& # 2# - /
- /
- # # 3 #
0 - #
/ 0 ## 0
* % %33,
0 # D # $$* - / /
# (
( 4 # # /
? @ ## 2 7( 4 # ?+ @
0 9 CN9 $$%O ## 2 7 # -
4 # : 4
? 0@( A
# 0 4 - # A # # ? 0
@( 4 # ? @
4.3.3 Output data
/ 4 # :9 ? !8
## 2 !!@ / 4 # 0 /
4 # :9 - 0 0
# - 0 9 C A # 3 4 # ?9 & - 9 # 0
$$,@ 04 ## ( 0-
4 - 0 0 :0 4
# :9 0 /
- # $$* / # 0 0- 9 C
N9 $$%O ## 2 ! # ] # ? :9 @(
0 0 # - ## 2
4 # $$*
) 4 #
A # 628 BCM +7( + :9) -57 '.!
M& ? @ 769,6 BCM !7( 6 :9) 4-3'.!
E. 182,4 BCM !!8(8" (%+V
!!,(* :9)
1423'.!
+$(6 :9) (%+ :9) %52% '.!
*! #
4 ! < ( ( ( '.=
/ C 4 A # (
- / 4 # ; #
0 / # # $$* # $$*
2
4 A # # : 0 ? @ # 0
/ / ? @ $$*( - A # 4 #
/ 4 - A # # : / 4
( $$*( # ? ## 2 ! ( 4 # :@ /
4 #
#
/ A # 4 # # 9
4 0 A 0# ( $$* 4 0 0 #
4 0 - 0 4 # ( ## A # $$*
A # 4 # #
? ## 2 ! ( 4 # 9@
5 # 4 & C / 4 # 0
) A ? " ( . L @ #
) 0 ( ". / ## ( $$*( A # #
L # ; 4 / 4 #
# # / 4
# ? ## 2 ! ( 4 # @
/ C ( $$* A # 4 # # :9 ? ## 2 ! @
5 # 0
5 : - # #
5 9 ) 0 #
5 ) 0L #
&
* # 4.4 Markets consuming the wrong volume
/ 4 2# - 2#
# - / 2# - 0
/ 2
*+ # 4.4.1
4.4.2 4.4.3
/ 2
** # 4.4.4 The load factor (BT: Dutch bedrijfstijd)
& ( 0 # 0 L 2(
?0 0 - @ 3 ## #
L 2F/ #
- - 0? !@
5 6 ( > 8
/ L 2 ( 0 /
# # L 2 # 0
! 0 L 2 ( ; 0
0 2 0 - 0 >
L 2EL L 2EL - ( # 0 -
L 2
2 - 0 G:/H( -
G: H / ? @(
# - G$H G68%$H / - 2
0 / :/ 0 - L - 0L 2 # 0
0 ?68%$@ 3 L 2 !$$ L - ,$ # :/
^ X68%$ V *+6$ :/ *+6$( -
*+6$ / :/ #
# # / #
0 0 -
4.4.5 . / 2
*, #
/ 2
*% # 4.5 Implementation error
4.5.1 Cause
3 /M S 0( - (
( 4 # # 4 0
/ # - $$* - 2 $!$ K
/ # # (
# -
/ # + - # # #
- # 0 0 - 0 $$* 3
# ( 0 0 A # 4 # ; ?0
@ - 4 # ?0 0- @
- $$* ? * * ,@ / 4 A #
2 0 # # :9
/ 2 # 0 ; 0 $$*
- # $!$ / 4 #
# 4 ( 2
# 0?; @ - / 2 $!$
( ; 0 $!$ ?/M S 0@ #
2 # 0 # ; 0 #
# 0 !$$ :9) ; 0 # 6+(% :9)
7 & ? @ ( %3 3
/ - 2 0 0 # /
/ 4 # # 7,T # 0 0
- / - ; # / /M S 0
- :/ 4 # 88,$ ? $!$@( ;
$(66 # # # 0 M
# ## 0 - $$*
4 # 0 4
0 ? @ 4 # #
$!$ / # $!$
# ! - ( 4 # -
# # 0 0 0 0
0 0 # 0,T # !$$:9) 2 0 0 #
!9 # ? & $$,@ G 4 " ## A # H
*8 #
2 7,:9) / # 0 #
0 0 # 0
%3& ? @ (
4.5.2 Conclusion
/ ( # ! $!$ 4
# : # 4 #
0 4 0 $$*E $!$ / #
$$* 3 # - 4
0 $$* 2 # ; 0 #
$!$ ( 0 # $$* 2#
4.5.3 New model liquefaction factory
/ ; 0 ? $$*@ #0 # -
0? $!$@ / ; 0 $!$ #
8$ # 6* # + # # 0 0 # ! $T
2 0 0 # ? 0 @ / ; !$$ # * # # 0
/ ; 0 ) 0 0 # 6$#
# # 0 / 2 0 0 # !$$ # # # 0> ,
# / # ; 0
- !$$T # # 0 / - # 0 #
0 - ( ;
0 # # - # # # 0 N9 ( 9 CO /
2 0 # # $!$ / 2 0 # !$$
# # 0 0 # - 068%$ E0
4.5.4 New Refcase 2004
? @ /
0 - #
- 0 )0 $$* ## $!$
. 0 - (
$!$
/ * # ;
- # - # .
!9 # ? & $$,@ G 4 " ## A # H
) 0 0 # ?6$T X$(66@ V 8$T # # 0?!$$T@
+) 2 0 0 # ?7,T X$(66@ V 6*T # # 0
*) 2 0 # ?! $T X6*T@ 2 0 0 # E68%$
V !$$T # # 0E68%$
*6 #
# # $!$ / #
/ # + + - /
# # 0 /M # / 0 0 #
## 2 7 J 0 # C
* + 4 # - 2 0 0 $!$
# $!$ / -
# $!$ ( 2
/ $!$ # # -
- $$* / 4 0 0 # -
9 # 4 # $$*
/ 4 - ; 4 #
> 4 # # # A # # 0
# - 4 # - 4
# - - - 2 0 E4
# / 4 # ( #
E
/ 0 # $!$ ;
M&> # $$*
4 # ? @
*7 # 4.6 Three different tests
/ # # - $!$
- 4 5 # / #
-
# $$* C : $!$
( $$* # $!$ ( -
# ( - # 0 :0
- # # # (
- / #
0 # - - $$* # (
0 / 4 0 A # /
0# A # 0# 0# 0
# A ( 4 A # (
4 # 4 -
/ ! 4 - A #
5 4 ; # -
/ 2 0 A # 4 #
5 4 # -
/ + 4 # & C
5 # A # # 2# -
4.6.1 The first test: LNG producers and European LNG inflow
# # - 4 #
# # / # 4 & C
9 ? A E @ C $$* / # 4
3 9 # C , !$ :9)
? ,@ # 3 !$ :9) - $$*( #
& C9 , :9)
/ # 0 04 / 4 0
( # #
; # - # - $$* -
4 A # ?# :9 @ # C $$* ? ## 2 ! @ /
# 0 09 CN9 $$%( ,O / #
# / # # - 0
0 # - 0
# - # / - - #
; 0 & ; #
4 C # - $$* . # :0
! # 0 0
__ M'<5 !*_5 S _4 5_ 4: / .&&S/B&_4 2 ? @_ _ $$% 5 _
- 67 8 1 39 :
# 0 0
__ M'<5 !*_5 S _4 5_ 4: / .&&S/B&_4 2 ? @_ _ $$% 5 _
- 67 8 , 9 :
+ # 0 0
__ M'<5 !*_5 S _4 5_ 4: / .&&S/B&_4 2 ? @_ _ $$% 5 _
- 67 ; 2" <9 = 0 - # /
0 # 0 * % ,
,$ #
# ; 0 - ( #
# 4 / ## 0 # 0 #
( 4 # :0 (
-
LNG produced volume as percentage of nameplate capacity
0 20 40 60 80 100
Algeria Asia Libya &
Egypt Middle
America Middle
East Norway West
Africa West America
realized 2004 liq 75%
liq 80%
liq 85%
liq 90%
% & 0 0
/ ; # - - - 4
A # / # # ;
# 0 # 09 C / ; #
- ? @ 6$T ? @ # # 0
- 8,T 7$T - #
- # - ?7 T@ / - ; #
# * + #
- # ) # # # 0?!$ T@
?!$$T@( # - 4 0
# 6$T( - ?
6$T@ 4 0 # $(%+:9) $$*( - 0 # # ?A #
+7( + :9)@ -
4 # A # / # - C * /
# - ; # 0 ( -
# - ?8,T( 6$T( 6,T 7$T@
9 # # # -
# # ( 2 # ( # -
- - 4 # ( # #
- / # 4 # (
# # ( ?8,T " 7$T@ )
; # 8,T 6$T / ? *@
# - # # # 0 ( -
; 0 # 4 - ## 2 !* 4 -
/ ) A # :9)
# 8,T 7$T ) A
8:9)
,! #
4 # ! 6$ # # # 0
/ , # # ( 4 -
0# A # 0 4 - ? 9 C@
0# A #
# - ; # ( 4
- 0 4 - (
, # / 4
A # 3 ? @ ( 4 # : 9
? ,@ 4 # #
- 4 # - :0 # - ( #
# - # - / # 0 E
4 # A # 3 4 #
$$* # 7$T 7,T # # 0 )
4 0 2 # - ;
$!$ # # -
%% A + @
/ 4 A # # ? @:9 C , -
2# - 2" 2 ?8,(6$(6,(7$T@ # /
0 # # 0" 2 - /
# - 4 # -
# - A # ( 0
- ? # - @ ?# 9 :@
# 4 # - 6$ # 7$T /
5 9( # # 4
A # # 4 4 & C9 # : 9 0 -
C - / - 4 # ? :9 @
4 # - / # 0
- - #
/ 4 # #
- # - 4 # - (
# :9 - # - & (
# # 0 - # 0 # > -
!4 ;6$T ,
5 ? 0@ 4 $$*
, #
2# # - # -
- #
3 # # 0(
- 0 - # 3 4 #
> 0 # # #
4 ? ) @( 2# - ?
@ / - 0 # 2 - 0
0 9 # , / 9 # -
4 #
4.6.2 The second test, part 1:
Effect of changing the minimum European LNG import
/ 0 - A # 4 # #
4 # 2 0! 2 4 # :9 /
2 0 4 # # $$* C ?
%@ / 2 4 # 2 4 #
:9 / 4 A # 2 0 / 0
- /
- 4 0 # /
- L % A # 4 #
4 # - / - ; !$T # # 0
A # #
9 L 4 A # /
/ A # 4 4
- / -
A # 4 # / 0 04 # -
? @( 4 # /
4 # / 4
#
/ A # 4 # C
$$*
months
LNG
%) + : B 0
0 L ( #
# ' # 2 0 9
L - - # 4
L ( A # 4 # # - A #
4 # / 0C 2 C
! 2 0 - 4 ( 2 0 ; -
L - 4 #
/ A # 4 # E
days
LNG
! +%,
,+ #
A # 4 # ! ## 2 !, 4
A # - # :9 / ## 2
- ( ; ,$T # # 0 # -
- 4 # $$* ? # %@
/ - -
4 # # :9 ( 0 4 #
2 0 / - - ( ( 2
- ? @ / - -
( 2 / ( #
2 0 4 4
& ( # 0 # - 4 #
3 - # / A #
# 0 4 4 0 ?# 9@
4 0 # # A #
3 # 9 2 ( 2 4 # # : ? @ ?
## 2 !,( # :@ 3
# # : # & ( A #
# # : / # # :
# - # M
( 4 # # 4 # 2 4 # ? @
# # 4 0
# 5 # #
# 9 0 # : 0 ? ## 2 !, @
A # # 4 0 # A #
( # - # -
5 : ## 0 # ( ) ?/ / @
3 ? @ ( 4 # - (
# - L # 6$T
# # 0( # - 4
# / ?- C / / @ # - ( /
/ A # 4 # # :
# - ( #
# - 4 A #
# - > 4 A # / (
4 A # 4 # 4 #
- # 4 0
# 4 # # 9 / #
0 : 4 # # #
A # : #
A # 5 # 4
# # ) A ( ( 2# -
- 4 # # - A # 2 0
/ ) A 0# 6$T -
# 0 # # -
3 4 ?# @( 0
/ ) A # # :( )
A # 4 A # / (
! # 0 # ## (
L
,* #
- # A # 4 # #
- # -
4.6.3 The second test, part 2:
European market flexible import as a function of high peak costs
! - 4 # A #
- ( - $$* 4 # - / 4
A # # 0 L ?
* % @ / :
L # # # # 0 /
# #
# # 3 - (
; 0 0 & ( 0
- # / # - 0
# - ( # ,$T A # :
- L &
4 # 0 A # ? - 0@ -
- A # 4 # - ?
, + +( 8@ & - - # 0 4
A # > #
4 A #
; - 0 2# 0 4
# $$* -
# # - 0
%, & +
2# A # & #
4 A # 0
/ # #
/ 4 # - A #
- - # A # 4 #
2 0 # - - 2 0
4 A # - - # /
/ ?) @ - A # #
) A
! /
LNG flow to Europe
as a function of peak capacity costs [model output]
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
1 19 37 55 73 91 109 127 145 163 181 199 217 235 253 271 289 307 325 343 361
normal dubble triple quadruple quintuple
,, # 4.6.4 Reason for the minimum LNG import level to Europe
& 4 # - ( 4
A # 2 # / 0
0 0 (
#
%- & +
&# 0 A # # # # # &#
A # 50 ( # 0 0 0 # #
A # &# # # &# (
4 # 2 &# &# A # (
&# ( #
A # # # G H(
6 -
&# &# D # - 4
# &# 4 $$*
4 # &# # 4 # A # ?
## 2 *@ 4 # &#
# ) 0 # &#
# ? &# - #
A # @ &# ? @ -
& # 0
4 # - ( 4 # &# $$* &#
4 ? 7@
Spain BCF/month (total roughtly 18bcm/year) [realisation 2004]
0 20 40 60 80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
%1 %33,
/
#
#
A #
&#
C
&
,% #
& ( # - A # 4
# $$* &# / ( L #
# - 0 A # 4 # 0
- / # $!$ # &# D
# - &# #
# A # 4 A #
#( &# #
&# 2 / 2
2 &# 4 # 0 ? $$+E $$,@ 3
- &# 4 # / 2
&# # A # 4 # 0 ? ## 2 *@
E4 - # -
&# D # 0 0 # # ( 00 &# D 4
( &# # A # (
# ## 0 L 3 - L ##
0 # - 0 0 L -
?!$T@ - L 0 ;
0 $$* L ,$T ; $!$ $ $ -
4 # - # A # ?
## 2 *@ 3 4 ( &# D # #
# / 0 &#
A # 4 #
) # 4 2 0 A # # -
? # ( ( # &# 4 # @ $$* A # (
&# ( 4 2 0 / 4 #
2 A # 4 : # (
( 4 # 2
/ A # 4 # 2 0
0 # - C $$*( 4
# :9 # 0 / & C ?# @
C ? +$@ 3 # $$*
# ## / 2 0
& C4 ( & C -
- & C
4.6.5 The third test: The Suez channel
/ # & C /
# ( 4 # -
- ? # +$@ 9 0(
- - ( # +$
%4 B ( 0 D
,8 #
/ - 0 - 4 & C &
0 # 0 0 - # # 3
# - 0 / - & C
? $$*@ - 0 5 A # 4
? # @ # 4 # & C
( A # # 0 #
A # #
/ # # 0
- # /
A # / 0
- / D 0
- # - 0 - - 0
# 3 0
( / #
/ - A # ( & C /
4 # ? & C @ / #
0 & C9 4 # 0 - 4
- / # 0 4 # - (
# # -
/ / # - 0 - -
# A # 4 # 2 0 -
$$* / # / 0
A # 4 # 2 0 -
A # # -
%5 * + : ( +
/ 0( - 0 4 (
A # - 0 # & A #
4 0 # & C
A # +! 4 ## 0 A #
/ - 4 A # ? #
% * % @
9 D C # A # 4 /
& C 4 # # - $$* /
# & C Q D #
( 0 0 # & C
) A # 4 # (
#E A #
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
1 20 39 58 77 96 115 134 153 172 191 210 229 248 267 286 305 324 343 362
L : REG-EU Flow t.q. dam3/uur
,6 #
/ - C + ? # @ / -
/ -
2# / 4 C 0
# ?
@
%7 B ( : 0 D .(
+
/ 4 & C 0 -
A # - 0 ( 0 C (
4 . 0 C -
3 - D# C - A # & C
4 / # & C # 0
C A # C
- 0 ? 2 @( A #
- 0 2# / /
4 0 # ? 0 0
( 4 - @ 0 4
# 0 (
# (
/ # 0 ? @
C A # - ( 0
9 C / #
5 & C 2
,7 # 4.7 Further research on Spain and the Suez channel
3 0 C $$* # (
/ G H - 4
& C
/ 4 /
# ( # # !
# 0= # # 0 # 4
0 ## 0 0 - - 0 -
3 D 4 #
? @ #
#
& 0( # &# # 4 #
A # - - &# #
A # 4 # # - &# - 4
# 0 $$* )0 2# &#
# / 0 4
# ( 0 # &# 4
A # 4 # & 0 0 # "
/ " # - 0 0 0
# # # : # 4
&# # &# 4
0 2# 00 ? $$* 00 @( 0 # #
- / - 0 # 4 # (
# - A # )
&# ,T # &# 4 # # 0 -
# N ) $$%O . - # 0 - #
)3& = 2 ( ( ( B ( : %33) %33,
& # &# # 4
## 0 A # 4 & C &# #
4 # ( 4 /
# 4 & C
# > 4 & C
$$+ 4 & C
$$* / # # & C
!&# / # ( #
#
# - 4 $$+E $$*
4
/
%$ #
$$+E $$* > # = = 0 / #
# ? 0( # - 0 @
- # $$+ /
$$ # #
# # $$* 2
4 A # / & C 0
# ++ / #
- 0
%! # 4.8 Conclusions
/ ; ( ; -
4 / - # # # - -
# (
/ - 0 # # #
# # #
# - # - - /
- / ( # (
# - 4 /
2 ; # 0 -
# ( # # ( 0 # -
# 0 $!$ # 0 0
# 4 - / # 4
# - / ( # # A # 4 -
$!$ - 0 & ( $!$ # 0
# A # 4 # -
# - - ( # # -
$$* # - # 4 #
- / # # 4 #
# 4 - $$* #
# 0 # ; / #
- # 0 4 0 # A # (
0 ? @ # 4 - #
# 0 4 #
( # 0> ; -
/ 0 # 2 4 A # 9 2 0
0 - 2# - /
2 A # 4 # ( # 2# # /
# 4 # -
# 3 2# 4 #
2 0 2 0 / 2# -
0 # ( - - 0 0 /
A # 2 4 # 0 A # / 0 &# (
G H4 # # &# 4 #
3 # &# A #
&# - $$* :
0# # - ( 2
/ 0 - - 4 & C / ## >
( # # $$* # # 0
# C A # # ##
0 / & C 4 2
2 / -
- 4
# 0 4
% #
# # $$*
0 $T / -
- - - #
- / # 0 $$* $T 0 #
# / # - - 4
# 2 #
4 # - -
# 0 $$* / # # 4
- - 0# 0 - $$* # 4
# - # / ;
( - 0
2 / - 0 0 # 2 #
- # - - ( 0
%+ #
5 SENSITIVETY ANALYSIS
/ - 0 0 #
# # N # !777O & #
# - - ( - 0
5.1 Reason for this analysis
# - #
- / 0 0 # (
? * % !@ 4 # #
- 4 # $$* & ( 4
# A # 4 # - ? * % @
) # /
4 # 2 ? + +@ /
# ? @ - 0 0 4 # -
# ( 0 ; ? @ ? , + @
: # - 0 0 ( 4 # :04 #
4 # 0 3
# F # # 0F/
; -
0 2 ( 0 - ? #
# 0 0 $!$ 0 @
; # - 0 0 # -
9 - 0
0 / # - # 0 -
5.2 Cost contribution of a liquefaction factory
/ 4 C 4 - ? ## 2 @
#
- # 0 . ; 0 4 ;
- 0 0 0 # 6$T !$$T # # 0 /
; # 4 ( # 0
3 ( 4
# # / # # -
# Q - 0H? 0@ D
# # - ( # 4
0 # ; # D - ;
4 - # # (
4 # :9
/ ; /M S 0 # 2!? # 2# @ / /M
# 0 ;
; 0 / ; # 0 C
!9 # 2 # ; "
# ( ;
0 ; A # # 0 2#
0 0 - - ; / # 0 0 0
# 0
%* #
# 4 / # # 0
# # ? # @ / # /M S 0
2 # ; 0
/ ? @ ! !^
5.2.1 Liquefaction facility costs
; # 2 0# ( 0
4 # # / # ! ;
# - 4 # / : # ?:
#( ) $$,@ # - ;
: # : ( # # 0( 0
/ / A 0# #
# 0( - ( # 2 ## / # 2
A 0# 0 ?$(,, M&Z A 0# 0- ! M&Z
0@ 0 2
- 0 / 2 - 0( 0
4 - 4 -
# 4 ( -
# / # 2 - 0
# # 0 0 0 0
# ? # $$,@
; / # 0 > - - ;
## 0 ( # ,$T 0 / # 4
- - 0 ; ( - ?
# # C ( ## 0 D @
# - - ; 0 / # - -
( 0 ( 0 # /
2 - # # ; 0 / : "
# # - 0 - ;
/ ? @ # - - ; #
0 / # 0
0 - / (
( # - C
2# 0 - ( # I
# # - # 0 N # O 3 0 0
( # ; 0 4 ( 0 -
0 0 0 0 0 # ; 0 3 0 0
# ( 0 0 - # 0 0 (
; 0 # > - ;
5.2.2 A country’s risk influences the IRR
/ # - -
0 # -
!5 # - 0 ; 0
: " # ? # $$%@ 4 4 ( # !$
%, #
# 0 / # ;
# 0 3 # 0 #
0 ; # / #
( # 0( / 0 -
# # 0 ;
C # - ?/ +@ ? C $$+@
/ - - 2# ( -
Iternal Rate off Return (IRR) as a function of a countries risk rating
200 4060 10080
U S C hi na om an M al ay si a E gy pt In di a In do ne si a R us si a
Rating
Target return
* ) & 6 #6 $
/ M& ?M & @ >7$ !$$ / 0
# - M& !$T .
- # - ; 0
+$T & # ; 0 ;
0 # 0#
/ C ( - ; 0 ,T - ; 0
/ - # 0 !$ +$ # ?M&( 9 (
. ( ) 0 ( A 0# ( @ ' 4 #
/ + ? ( @ # ( # / +
5.2.3 Expensive and cheap liquefaction costs
# ( 2# - ; 0 #
# ; 0 / 0# - 0 0 (
; # / 0( 2# - (
0 - >
# ; 0 0
- > # ; #
/ # # ; 0 /
- # ; 0 ; - 0 # 0
! - 0 0 ( 0 $ % #
# G 2# D 0 $ ++ # G# H
- 4 # 0 - 0 # - 4
- # ,T # - -
,T # -
9 - ; Z8,$ $$$ $$$ X!,T V Z!! ,$$ $$$ +(+ # 0
; (, E `+
%% #
!,T - 0 0 0 # :0 2# - #
; # ( - ##
+$T !,T ; 0 -
0 # !( , - 0 / # ; 0
4 2# - ; # +$E!,X!( ,V (,
- ( # !$T !,T 0
; 0 # 0 # $(8,
- 0 / # ; 0 4 # ; #
!$E!,X$(8,V$(+ -
/ - 2 0 ?$(+ - (,@ #
0 2# ; / #
- # 0 - ;
0- 0 # 0
0 # 0 #
0 - 0 - 0 (
0
5.3 LNG Production sensitivity as a function of production costs
5.3.1 Method “oat”
/ - 0 0 - 0 #
; 9 - # #
# ; / # ;
# ; 0 F ( # - F
/ ; # -
; 0 # 0 / 0 - 0
0 - ? @
# ; / 0( # ? ; 0@
# 0 # ? +*@ / #
- ; # # - / 0
# 4 # ? $!$
$$*@( # :/ # 0 0 -
( :/ 4 ; 0
) & ? @ (
+* 2 # 2# - ; 0(
; # 2# - # ##
( # 0 . 2" 2
# # ( J" 2 # #
; 0
5
. # -
L 2
L
%8 # 5.3.2 The outcome
/ # - ; -
# ## 2 !8 # - # 0
/ * 0 - 4 #
$!$ # / GT 9 H #
4 # # 0 /
2 # # # 0 0#
- / 0 # 4 # /
G: # 0?! @H ; # 0 #
4 #
5 0 E
(
5
?T @
: # 0?! @
/
"% 6$ 7*(,
) A " % 6$ 7%(7 a
) ", 6$ 7%(
4 0 A 0# 6 7,(* 6$(
+$ 76(+ 6 (, ) E
!! 7,(, 6$($
+ 6$ 7%(8
* , & ? ( @ ( ( 0
A 4 # # 0 #
, + # G) H
0( , # # ( - 6$ # (
( !$$T( +, / #
- - # # # < > #
/ 0 # - # # # -
# 3 0 - # (
- # # 0 # - 0 3 ## 0
2 , +( ; # 0
# 0
/! 2
%6 #
LNG Production Middle America
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0 2 4 6 8 10
% decrease in production cost change
% max production level
)% & .( F! F
/ - - ;
# # 6$T ? @ 2
3 ; # - ( E ## 0 -
# - ; # $$* - # 0 C
# 0 7!T : 4
0 C / (
0 # # 0 0 ( #
4 # 4 0 - 0
# - 0 2
5.3.3 Effect of changing the costs function of the liquefaction areas
/ ? ## 2 !@
- 0 ; # - #
0
/ 2
%7 #
/ - 0 0
# ( - 0 ) # 0(
# # 0 # #
/ 0# ( # 4 # 0
!$T
"Joker" production Asia
refcase vs USA 10 percent increase in production costs
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 361
Asian production refcase
Asian production; USA plus 10 percent Production Algeria Refcase
Production Algeria; USA plus 10 percent
)) & 6 3
/ # 0 0 #
# # / 2# - (
4 # 0(
0 4 #
/ 2
8$ #
4 # / #
# !> # +8
# # /
# # / C -
# 2#
# 2 0 # G/
# H
! +8 0 4 # / # 0 # 0
- -
8! # 5.4 “The chain of windshield wipers”
/ # # # .
4 - #
## / # #
? 2 @( # /
A # - / - ) A ?&
+6@
), 6
& # - # #
? @ 0 M & 3
## ? +6@ 4 # -
4 - : 4 - ) A
- 4 / - # & C
A # / ## / 2 A # 4 #
) A A # 4 # / -
A # - M & ( ) 4
# - / # ( !
- 4 G H
2 # 2 # # 2# / 2 #
# , *
5.4.1 A windscreen wiper
(
:9) 4 / * :9) 4 # ## 0
( # 9 # !:9) 4
# : # :9) / # - 4 *:9) 5
## 0 ( # 9 ## 0 : 5 : ## 0
A #
+7
# !:9) # !
!/ 0 #
#
#
) #
&
8 #
/ # ? +7@ * # !:9) -
( ; *
)- &
4 ## +:9) !:9)(
## 0 ## 0F/ # ( 0 0
## ## 04 #
/ # # !:9) 2 #
! # :( 0 / # -
!:9) # 3 5 9
# 2 4 # F/ >
# 9 ) # :
)1 & *( (
C - ( ?& *$@
5 # - #
: # ( # - ?
@ 0 # - 5 9 #
# - : / # ,
# E : #
3 # - -
# C 3
0 # # 0 #
# # #
# : ( # -
/ # 2# # (
# #
) ) :
5 5 : 5 9
!:9) :9) !:9)
:9) :9)
!:9)
!:9)
!:9)
!:9)
) ) :
5 5 : 5 9
!:9) :9) !:9) W !
:9) :9) G
:9) :9)
!:9) $:9)
8+ #
0 :9)>
G H ; +:9) # # 9
2 - ?!:9)@ # 0# 9 #
# # ?# :@ #
- # #
2 # - 0 # : & (
# - # # (
# 3 # ? 0 @
# E : #
3 # # +7 *$ 0 (
( # - ! /
4 # 2( # -
2 # # 0 # -
! ( 3 -
# - E # /
2 # 2 #
/ # ? # @( 0
# /
5 ) ?5 ) !@ # !:9) ( ; C
/ # ( / % C
! & #
5 ) ! ! $
5 ) ! !
5 ) ! $ "!
5 ) ! !
) ) $ $ $
/ ? @ # !
* - & *
- - (
0 - /
2 / %
- - 5 ) / # -
( -
5.4.2 Difference in transport costs in the world model
/ # #
# - 0 0 #
# - # ( 0
/ 2 # # ) #
!$ # 3 $(8 :9) ) 4 #
- 4 # /
# M # - ?, * !@
#
!/ 0 # / 5
) - 5 )
) ) ) ) :
8* #
## 2 !6 # - # - 0 0 /
## 2 G H( # G # !$
# H / ## 2 ? @
# # /
# - #
# # /
0 / % 3 - - -
# ( 0# # ( #
# -
# ( 0
## 2 !7 # - ## # ## 2
# #
# ( # ? ## 2 $@ <
# # #
## 2 ## 2
- # # -
# / # #
# ## 2 $ ## 2 !6 ## 2 !7(
# ; # - 3
G # H# 0
/ # 4 ( #
( ? 0 0@
4 # 0( * #
4 # 5 0 0 #
? 6$$$ # 0 ( E!$$$$ @ %( 3
# # !(+ /
# - # # #
?!(8 @
5.5 Conclusion
/ - 0 0 # # -
"; # / "; #
; - F/ - 0 0
# - 4 #
/ # # / - 2# 0
# # - -
# ( A # ) A / #
0 (
# # -
/ # G # H / #
# ?, * !@ 0 -
/ # M& - #
# - M& / #
# # #
# / # ? # @ 0 -
# # / #
2# - - 0 # # *
' # # (
- 2 A # 4 #
8, #
6 CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
/ # # # - #
/ #
; # ( (
- # - 0 0 / #
# # - #
/ # - 4 #
# ( ; 4
## 0 # 0 ## 0 D 0(
#
6.1 Conclusions
/ # - ;
; / ; 0
/
# - ; ( # # ;
/ ; (
4 - F& ( - F ( 2
4 5 4 F/ ;
# - ; ( 2 4 5 F/ 2
- - #
# ; 2
; - 0 0
# - 0
/ # 0
# $!$ # E#
- # 0 " 4 5 # /
0 /
# D # - 4 0 $$*
- ; 4 $$*( (
0 - - ## 2 #
/
" +(
3
+/ - # - /
4 ; ##
- # - 4 5 # /
- 0 2 #
( # 4 A # (
4 # # A # # /
; 4 # -
2 #
- # # /
# ; 4
# / # 4 ## 0 #
4 # - / #
# 4 # 4 - $$*
# 0 # ;
8% #
/ # - # 0 4
0 # A # ) 0 ? @ # 4
/ - # - - #
/ 2 A # 4 # ( #
4 # - # 3
2# 4 # 2 0 2 0
/ # # C
( - C / -
A # 2 4 # 0 A # / 0 &# ( 4
# # &# 4
# 3 # &#
A # / - # - - 4 #
0 ( - C & C / -
$$* 4 # & C #
/ 0 # ; 0 # " # # 0
" # 0 ( # 0
# " # 0 ;
- - ( ;
/ 0 ; - 0
/ - 0 0 / -
; ( 4 #
- / # - 4 #
A # / # # 0 # # -
; - $$* /
; ( # ;
# - 0 0 #
> # # # - #
/ C C - / -
# ? # @ 0 -
# - G/
# H( # #
. 4 - #
## / #
# ( # / A # -
/ - ) A
( 0 #
- # ; / 4 #
# # 4 # $T 2 0( 0 0 #
; # # 0 / 0 4
0( 0 ( # # 2 0
6.2 Discussion
# # # -
/ # - # 4 5 /
# - 4 # ( 2# 0 #
4 5D # - 2 ( # 0
G # H / - (
; # / # ; 4
88 #
## 0 ( 4 # 0 ## 0 /
# ( # 4 0
0 0
( # C
/ 2 # - ( # # 0
- 0 # 0 (
6.2.1 The spot market
0 4 # / 4 #
4 ( # # 4
# / # # 4 # (
# $$*( / # # 4 #
/ # 0 # - -
# / - # 4 ;
- 4 ? # 0 4 0@
4 / 4 - 0 -
# / # # 4 4
# ( # 0 - # 0
- # 4 #
- ( 0
# 4 / 4 -
- > # 0 0 -
# 0 - ; # E
- 0#
/ # ( - # #
# # (
0- 9 ! & - - # #
5 ' " + << "
' + & +;
1 9
+? @ .+A 0
& 1
9
+$ &
:9 : +
& # G 0H # 4
# / # #
4 / # - 4
# # 3 #
) A - & C
# 0 # # # 0 0
4 - (
# # / 0 (
# A # !$ # *$ :9)( ; *:9) 4 # -
) A # ( - 4
!4 9 ( A2 - B5 0 & # ? $$%@ # 4
# EE -
86 #
& C 0 # #
# &# D # # - 2 C #
# # #
# / 0 # # #
6.2.2 The windshield wiper function
/ # 0 -
# ? , * !@ / #
# # / # #
0 # 4 # / # # 0
4 4 - 0# A #
$T # # 0 $T 3
$T 4 2# ? $TX $:9)V*:9)@ & C
- 0,$TK/ 4 # :
!$$TK / 4 5 # 0 0
A # # ( 0 # A # / 0
# # / #
; 0 0 ## 0
6.2.3 LNG is not only an additional supply source
/ ; 4 0 ## 0 :0
## 0 4 #
# # - 4 ## 0 (
# 0 ## 0 ' - 0 -
4 # 0 # 0 ## 0 A # 0&# 4
/ - # 4 3 4 # 0
## 0 4 # A # -
- ) 0 &# 2 # A # #
4 ( 4 # / 0# &#
# 4 / # # 0 $!$
4 0 ## 0
6.2.4 .. / 2
87 # 6.2.5 Model characteristics
) - : N $$%O 0 (
( # - ( #
0 3
# - ( # ?# C
- @ 3 # - ? - # @
# ? - # @
0 # ? - - @
# C -
0 # ; ## ( 0 #
- ( 0 4 - 0
0( # - ) 0 #
0 ; 0
& ( - # -
- 0 / ;
## 0 ## # 0
' - 5
/ ' ( - #
/ - #
## 0 0# 2 #
2 / 0 # #
: 2 0 0 0
( 0
# - ( ?
- : $$%@ - -
4 4
/ 4 # - 4 #
- -
A # #
0 / # C # ##
0 :0 # C
# - # C
# ( # / # # 0
A # 4 ;
# # ' #
- 0 0 # # A #
# # 0 / #
# - # /
2 # # # /
# 4 A # # 0# )0 #
0 # ?* #
0 @
3 # ( # 0
/ # 0
4 # - G H # 0
- # -
0 / 4 - - #
# 4 - #
