Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook June 20 - 26, 2019
Heavy rainfall predicted in the western part of Guatemala.
1. Heavy rainfall since this past four weeks has result in flooding in western and southern areas of Guatemala.
2. Starting to the south-west of Guatemala through El Salvador, a torrential rainfall is forecast to continue during next week, increasing risk of overflowing river levels, landslides and increase risk for flash flooding.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
A cool air mass is forecast to move into northern parts of the region.
Over the past week, the western part of Guatemala has registered more than 150mm of rainfall according to CMORPH. The southern coastline of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua also registered and increase of precipitation compared to the previous week.
However, according to local report, the wind stress associated with the warm temperature over the east of El Salvador near the Gulf of Fonseca has accelerated the evaporation. In addition, the storage of water by the dried soil has reduced considerably the chance of flooding over south-east Honduras, south Honduras and north-west Nicaragua. In contrast, the eastern part of Honduras is still experiencing a suppression of rainfall which is monitored closely. No storm activity in the coming week, however, heavy rain is forecast to hit the western part of Guatemala with over 300mm decreasing toward El Salvador.
During the outlook period, models suggest rainfall will be above average with risk of flooding starting over southwest Guatemala, across the southern part of Guatemala decreasing through west El Salvador. A near climatology is forecast for El Salvador, west Honduras, except east coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica showing above 100mm. In contrast the forecast shows a deficit of rain over the major part of Honduras through Nicaragua. We are monitoring closely the rainfall deficit since this past three weeks over the eastern part of Honduras including the northern part of Nicaragua.
Week 1 Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH climatology (mm) January 30 – February 5, 2019
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
