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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook January 22– January 28, 2014

Heavy rain was recorded across southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Honduras.

1. A lackluster start to Apante season rainfall across the Atlantic zone of Nicaragua extending north into the Gracias a Dios department of Honduras has led to growing rainfall deficits and could negatively impact Apante season cropping activities.

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Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

Heavy rain fell across southern Nicaragua during the last week.

During the last seven days, heavy rains (>50mm) were observed across southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and along the Gulf of Honduras coastline in Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The heaviest rains (>70mm) fell in the Izabal department of Guatemala. This marked the third consecutive week where heavy rains developed along the Caribbean coastline of northern Central America. Moderate rains (10-30mm) extended inland as well, including into the Huehuetenango department of Guatemala and western Honduras. Elsewhere, light rains (<10mm) fell across Central America.

Over the past thirty-days, Apante season rains have been below-average across Central America. This dryness has led farmers in the Matagalpa region of Nicaragua to delay planting in December due to poor rains. Meanwhile in the Atlantic zone of Nicaragua, dry conditions continue to persist even though crops are developing normally.

For the next seven days, heavy coastal showers (>50mm) are forecast along the southern Caribbean coastlines of Central America, including Costa Rica and Panama; although, the heaviest rains should occur offshore. Farther north, light to moderate rains (5-30mm) are expected in northern Central America, which is a reduction in rains compared to previous weeks. Meanwhile, below-average temperatures are forecast for northern Central America, but temperatures should remain above freezing.

Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) January 21 – January 28, 2014

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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