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Water as an

Instrument of Power

in Foreign Policy?

Turkey’s water supply disruptions

towards Syria and Iraq.

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Master Thesis International Relations

DECLARATION BY CANDIDATE

I hereby declare that this thesis, “Water as an Instrument of Power in Foreign Policy? Turkey’s water

supply disruptions towards Syria and Iraq “, is my own work and my own effort and that it has not

been accepted anywhere else for the award of any other degree or diploma. Where sources of information have been used, they have been acknowledged.

Name: Maaike Slotema

Signature

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Master Thesis International Relations

[ACKNOWLEGDEMENT]

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Master Thesis International Relations

[ABSTRACT]

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Master Thesis International Relations

Table of Contents

Introduction ... 6

Chapter 1: Literature Review: Water and Energy in the Existing

Literature….………...…..……….. 10

1.1. Water and foreign policy……….. 10

1.1.1 Water and conflict ………...11

1.1.2 Water and cooperation………. ...11

1.1.3 Water and political issue linkage………....………. 11

1.1.4 Water as a ‘positive tool’ in foreign policy tool in negotiations ...12

1.1 Energy and foreign policy ... 13

1.2.1 The focus on energy relations; economic commodity vs. security threat... 13

1.2.2 Energy as tool in foreign policy; different perceptions………13

1.2.3 Energy as economic coercion; carrot and sticks... 14

1.2.4 Energy as a tool in foreign policy; constraints by domestic interests seen from

neoclassical realist approach ... 14

1.2.5 Precondition for using a natural resource as power tool……….……… 15

1.2.6. Energy supply disruptions: political issue linkage and economic interests .. 17

1.2.7 Sub conclusion on energy supply disruptions as tool in foreign policy ... 18

1.3 Conclusion chapter 1 ... 19

Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework and Methodology………21

2.1 Theoretical Framework ... 21

2.1.1 Asymmetrical dependency relations: Shaffer…….……….. 22

2.1.2 Sub conclusion on asymmetrical dependency relation and power……...……….….. 23

2.1.3 Energy as power tool from Neoclassical Realist approach: Kropatcheva…………..…... 24

2.1.4 Neoclassical Realism and natural resources……… 26

2.1.5 Kropachteva’s approach on energy and external independent variables. …….………….. 27

2.1.6 Kropatcheva’s approach on energy and internal independent variables: ……...………...30

2.1.7 Sub conclusion on theoretical framework ...31

2.2 Methodology and methods ... 33

2.3Data Collection and the Choice of Methods………...…….… 33

2.4 Measurement of Variables Step 1; preconditions and restrictions………...……... 34

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2.4.2 External Independent Variable, systemic factor...35

2.4.3 Internal independent variable, domestic-decision making………...………. 36

2.5 Measurement of variables of step 2: Water as a resource power in foreign po licy…….... 36

2.6 Time frame to analyze these foreign policies………. 36

2.7 Conclusion chapter 2………...37

Chapter 3: Empirical Indicators: Turkey and its Foreign Policy on Water……. 38

3.1 Justification for selecting specific case study………...… 38

3.2 Background information on the two rivers and the GAP project……...……… 39

3.2.1 Water arrangements between Turkey, Syria and Iraq

…….………..

40

3.2.2 Turkey and the Kurdish Question in relation to Syria and Iraq………..…. 41

3.3 Step 1: asymmetrical dependency relation

... 41

3.3.1 Water Scarcity in Turkey, Syria and Iraq ...41

3.3.2 Economic Value of Water for Turkey, Syria and Iraq ...43

3.1.3 Infrastructure...38

3.1.4. Effects on natural resource relations. ...43

3.4 Step 1: relative power of Turkey vis-à-vis Syria and Iraq

... 44

3.5 Step 1: domestic decision-making process on water

... 45

3.6 Sub conclusion step 1

……….. 46

3.7 Step 2: empirical indicators of using water as a resource power in foreign policy……… 47

3.7.1 The results……..………. 48

3.8 Conclusion chapter 3……...………50

Chapter 4: Theoretical Predictions in Relation to Empirical Indicators

... 51

4.1 Conclusions on preconditions of step 1: possibility to use water as a resource power…... 52

4.2 Conclusions on the results of step 2: water used as a resource power by political issue

linkage………... 52

4.3 Answer to the hypothesis... 53

4.4 Analysis of differences between energy as resource power and water in foreign policy;

cost element ... 53

4.5 Outcomes in relation to a broader debate on water in foreign policy………. 55

4.6 Implications for further research……….56

4.7 Sub conclusion chapter 4 ... 57

Conclusion ...58

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Introduction

Last May Turkey decided to cut off the water supply for 6 days from the Tigris-Euphrates river basin towards Syria and Iraq, leaving Syria and Iraq with a water crisis in the dry summer months (The Guardian/environment/2014/May/26). This is one of the incidents that Turkey decided to cut off the water flow towards Syria and Iraq. After these actions various questions popped up; why would Turkey cut off these rivers towards its neighboring countries? Does Turkey use water as a power tool in foreign policy to put pressure on Syria and Iraq in negotiations, or are there other interests at stake? In the media, there were several claims that Turkey used water as a power tool in foreign polic y towards Syria and Iraq. For example an article in the Guardian in July 2014 claimed that the control over water dams has become a ‘tactical weapon’ towards Syria and Iraq for Turkey’s foreign policy goals (The Guardian: 2014). BBC News reported after the water cut off from Turkey in 2000 in their article ‘Thirsting for War’ how the water cut offs leaded to heavy water scarcity in Syria and Iraq. They advocate that ‘the Turkish dams have become new tools in foreign policy towards Syria and Iraq’ (BBC News: 2000). In the academic field so far there are no theories on the use of water supply disruptions as a power tool in foreign policy. There is extensive literature on water in relation to conflict and cooperation in IR theory. These articles focus mainly on the prediction of the probability on the outbreak of conflict because of water. Within the literature on water and security in relation to (foreign) politics, many theories try to predict conflict and cooperation because of water. Water in relation to foreign policy is only discussed as a tool for cooperation during negotiations. An example here is how Turkey made commitments on the supply of water towards Syria and Iraq in return for security garantuees over Kurdish insurgency from the PKK (Daoudy 2009: 368). In other words, water has been used as a ‘positive tool’ in foreign policy during negotiations on coopereation. On water supply disruptions in relation to power in foreign policy there is no theory avalaible yet.

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policy goals.

This research questions whether the theories on the use of a natural resource as a power instrument in foreign policy explain the strategy for Turkey to cut off these water supplies, which leads to the main question: To what extent does the theory on energy as a resource power explain Turkey’s

foreign policy on water, based on its supply disruptions towards Syria and Iraq?

The reason for choosing to apply this specific theory of energy as a resource power in foreign policy to water is because this theory advocates that supply and disruptions of natural resources are linked to power tools in foreign policy. In the academic literature no theory is available yet on the motivations to cut off water supplies for foreign policy goals. Therefore, this research will add to the litera ture on the use of water in foreign policy, whether water supply disruptions by Turkey can be seen as acts of power in foreign policy towards Syria and Iraq.

There the theory of a resource power is applied to this specific situation of Turkey and its foreign policy on water for several reasons. The first reason mentioned earlier in the introduction, is that there are signs that Turkey used water as a power tool in the media, however there are no theoretical explanations on this behavior in the academic field so far. Secondly, the scarcity of water in the region makes Syria and Iraq highly depended on the water supply from Turkey and therefore vulnerable to the supply disuptions of Turkey. Thirdly, the political unstable situation due to the Kurdish Question in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin makes it that there are several additional foreign policy goals for the countries Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Lastly, the GAP project, the building of several dams in the Tigris - Euphrates river basin made it easy for Turkey to cut off the water supplies towards Syria and Iraq.

These several reasons make the case study of Turkey’s water supply towards Syria and Iraq an exceptional situation to study. The building of several dams in the rivers the Tigris and Euphrates is considered as controversial and there are possibly other international political interests at stake, which will be explained below. Further, Turkey has cut off the water supply towards Syria and Iraq several times in the last 20 years.

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(Jongerden 2010: 138). The situation in Turkey shows that there are possibly ‘other foreign policy interests’ at stake when cutting off the rivers the Tigris and Euphrates towards Syria and Iraq. With ‘other foreign policy goals’ this research refers to additional policy goals which have nothing to do with hydroelectric power, drinking water, or agricultural water needs. So far there is no academic prove that water is used by Turkey as a power tool towards Syria and Iraq. Therefore, this research decided to test if the theory on energy as a resource power is also applicable on Turkey’s water policy to analyze if Turkey’s motivation to cut off water is related to other foreign policy interests towards Syria and Iraq. In other words, the expectation is that based on Turkey’s power position with the building of the dams in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin and political unstable situation in the region, the water cut offs can be explained as usage of water as a resource power similar to the way in which energy is used as a foreign policy tool and therefore the theory of energy is expected to be applicable to water. This will lead to the following hypothesis: The theory on energy as a resource power explains Turkey’s foreign

policy strategy on water towards Syria and Iraq .

Answering the research question is relevant since there is a gap in the literature on the use of water as a power tool in foreign policy by supply disruptions. First, the focus on supply disruptions of natural resources in foreign policy is mainly on energy. Second, articles on water as a tool in foreign policy are focused on water as a ‘positive tool’ in cooperation and not on water as a ‘coercive tool’ in foreign policy by supply disruptions.

The theoretical framework is created around the neoclassical realist approach within International Relations (IR) theory. Reason for choosing this theory is that the neoclassical realist approach is not only focused on the systemic level of relative power but also on the internal independent variable of domestic decision-making, which is also an important element in studying the foreign policy on natural resources and mainly energy. The method which will be used to answer this question is a theoretical framework created out of the existing literature on energy as a coercive tool in foreign policy. This framework will be applied on water, and in particular Turkey’s foreign policy on water concerning Syria and Iraq.

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answering the question ‘how does the case study of Turkey’s foreign policy on water towards Syria and Iraq fit into the created research model?’ This chapter is divided into two steps: the first step measures if Turkey meets the preconditions to use water as a power tool in foreign policy, the second part will analyze Turkey’s supply disruptions in relation to foreign policy as a resource tool. ‘Towards what extent do the theoretical predictions from the research model, match with empirical indicators on Turkey’s foreign policy on water towards Syria and Iraq?

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Chapter 1: Literature Review: Water and Energy in the Existing

Literature

This first chapter will answer the subquestion: what is written in the existing literature on water and energy in relation to foreign policy? The reason to answer this question is because it will show the gap in the existing literature on water supply disruptions and power in foreign policy. It will also help to place the research into a broader debate on water as a foreign policy tool. The chapter is divided in two parts; The first part of the research elaborates on the use of water in relation to foreign policy in the existing literature. It shows that water is mainly focused on conflict and cooperation. As a tool in foreign policy water is used in cooperation during negotiations. However, supply disruptions have not been researched in the light of foreign policy tools.

The second part will elaborate on energy in relation to foreign policy, with the special focus on supply disruptions. It will also select a framework to determine the preconditions for countires to use energy as a power tool. In addition, this part will justify why specific theories are selected from the theories on energy to study the situation in Turkey.

1.1. Water and foreign policy

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1.1.1 Water and conflict

Water has been extensively discussed in the academic field in relation to the outbreak of conflict. For Instance Gleick one of the leading researchers on water and conflict, argues that water and even water-supply systems, to an increasing extent are getting more likely to be both objectives of military action and instruments of war. According to Gleick, this is the case because improving standards of living, human population growth and global climatic changes make water supply and demand more uncertain and problematic (1993: 80). Jongerden does focus in his article on the relation between dams and politics in Turkey towards Syria and Iraq. However, he analyses the building of these dams in the perspective of potential conflict between the countries.

1.1.2 Water and cooperation

Other articles focused on water as a reason for cooperation, which possibly gives it the potential to be used in foreign policies. An example of this is the article from Kraska who focused on hydro diplomacy in South Asia. He proclaims that shared interest in rivers can contribute to regional stability and conflict avoidance (Kraska 2009: 517). This article suggests the international trans-boundary river agreement between India and Pakistan to manage water sharing on the Indus River reduces tension and prevents war between both nuclear-armed rivals. He elaborates on this that during a crisis in 2001 between both countries the trans-boundary river management regime was the most functional bilateral relationship between the India and Pakistan (Kraska 2009: 517). Kibaroglu and Scheuman describe in their article how the institutionalization of water cooperation and with it growing networks of water dialogues can potentially ease tensions between Turkey, Syria and Iraq (Kibaroglu, Scheumann 2013: 285). They conclude that cooperation on water between Turkey Syria and Iraq can potentially lead to cooperation on other issues such as the security situations towards the Kurdish Question.

1.1.3 Water and political issue linkage

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Turkey as a bargaining position in water negotiations. An example of this is the treaty in 1987 between Turkey and Syria on the amount of water Turkey will supply to Syria. According to Daoudy,

issue-linkage was effectively used in negotiations on water supply from Turkey towards Syria on the

Euphrates river basin. Daoudy proclaims, issue-linkage made between water sharing and the upstream country’s security concerns over Kurdish insurgency from the PKK was the most important driver towards the conclusion of a minimal agreement on water allocation by Turkey in 1987 (Daoudy 2009: 368).

1.1.4 Water as a ‘positive tool’ in foreign policy tool in negotiations

There are arguments that Turkey linked water issues to foreign policy goals during negotiations with Syria and Iraq. The negotiations in 1987 showed that Turkey has made concessions on water issues, namely in one part of the agreement Turkey guarantees the 500 cubic meters water per second from the Tigris-Euphrates water basin. In the other, Syria guaranteed to put an end to the activities within its borders of the PKK and radical leftist organizations considered by Turkey as terrorists (Jongerden 2010: 137). In 2008 Turkey used water in negotiations with Syria according to the Israeli Foreign Ministry. More specifically, Turkey used water as a negotiation tool for Syria in return for peace with Israel. The former director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry Alon Li’el claimed in a report of the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv that”in the event of a comprehensive peace settlement, Syria would be prepared to allow Israel to continue to use water from the Golan Heights in return for Turkish water‘cited from the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv in an article of Gareth Jenkins, published in the Eurasia Daily Monitor. Alon Li’el also adds in the newspaper: “Only recently, the Syrians officially told the Turks that they are prepared to let Israel continue to use the water sources on the Golan Heights after a withdrawal on condition that the Turks compensate them with water supplies and assistance in setting up desalination plants,” (Jenkins 2008). From the year 2000 there have been several treaties signed between Turkey, Syria and Iraq based on cooperation on shared waters. Kibaroglu and Scheumann argue in their article on the evolution on transboundary politics in the Euphrates basin, that while the negotiations where only focused on water, other political disagreements between Turkey, Syria and Iraq where solved (Kiborglu. Scheumann 2013: 289). However, so far nothing is written yet on the supply disruptions as a foreign policy tool.

1.1.5 Sub conclusion water supply disruptions in relation to power in foreign policy

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a bargaining position in foreign policy for cooperation on water. Furthermore, water is used as a ‘positive tool’ in foreign policy during negotiations on water cooperation to link other security issues with the negotiations. In other words, water is used in foreign policy as a tool to cooperate. However, this does not prove that water is used as a power tool in foreign policy to reach other foreign policy goals. Kiborglu and Scheumann researched water as a negotiation tool with Syria and Iraq. They argued in their article on the evolution on transboundary politics in the Euphrates basin, that while the negotiations where only focused on water, other political disagreements between Turkey, Syria and Iraq where solved. So far, in the academic literature there is no clear theory on the several supply disruptions of water from Turkey towards Syria and Iraq. There are many speculations in the media and accusations by Syria and Iraq that Turkey is using its power position to reach other foreign policy goals. However, in the academic field so far there is no elaboration on the motivations for Turkey to cut off the water supply towards the other countries.

Therefore, this research will have a closer look to other natural resources and their relations to foreign policy. By analyzing other national resources as a power tool, it is researched whether these theories on supply disruptions can be applied to the situation of Turkey towards Syria and Iraq.

1.2 Energy and foreign policy

When it comes to power and natural resources the academic field is focused on energy relations. With energy this research means the commodities oil and gas. First there will be a short elaboration why this research decided to apply the theory of energy to water. After that there will be a discussion on how energy is perceived as a power tool and how it is approached in different types of research. First it will describe the different perceptions of energy in the academic field. The reason to discuss these different perceptions is to explain why the specific theories are selected to study water supply disruptions.

1.2.1 The focus on energy relations; economic commodity vs. security threat

The focus in this research is on the theories based on energy as a power tool in foreign relations compared to the use of water in foreign policy. This research is searching for explanations why Turkey cuts of the water supply towards Syria and Iraq. The reason to focus on energy is because energy is not just perceived as an economic commodity, which will be explained below.

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profit (Casier 2000: 495). According to Casier there has been a predominantly economic logic before the 1990s. A report on energy from the research institute in Clingendeal in 2004 stated as well that the energy world has changed: It has moved away from a market logic to a geopolitical ‘logic of empires’. The report recommends in the conclusion even to the European Union (EU) to adapt to this logic and to make energy as an integral part of its Common Foreign and Security Policy (Clingendeael institute 2004: 141).

In general, energy relations are understood as a crucial element in the struggle of power between states. The possession of energy resources is seen as an essential source of power, increasing the relative capabilities of states vis-à-vis others. Analysts explain energy relations as a zero-sum game: according to Paillard energy can be seen as what one party gains, is the loss of the other party (Paillard 2010: 65). Keith Smith wrote a book in which he analysed energy relations in terms of ‘national security risks’. He argues that European dependency on Russian energy is a a serious ‘threat to the sovereignty’ of the EU’s member states. He proclaims that : ‘the interruption of energy supplies is as much a security threat towards countries as military action is.’ (Smith 2008; 23).

1.2.2 Energy as tool in foreign policy; different perceptions

Energy is thus in general seen mainly after the 90s in the academic field as a security threat for countries that do not possess energy themselves. From the starting point where energy is perceived as a source of power, academic articles have been developed on energy in relation to foreign policy tools. The main focus here is on Russia’s policy on oil and gas towards its neighboring countries and the EU.

1.2.3 Energy as economic coercion; carrot and sticks

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came up with an idea of an alternative North European Gas Pipeline that would bypass both of these states (Zaitzeva 2005: 34). However, in her research Zaitzeva does not give a comprehe nsive theory on how to ‘measure’ whether energy is really used as a foreign policy goal; she only talks about ‘some tangible results’, nevertheless she also concludes that the leverage of Russia so far has not followed a transparent and predictable format (Zaitzeva 2005: 43).

Another research from Newnham focused on Russia’s energy leverage as a source of power to reward its friends and punish its enemies. This research tries to discover a pattern in Russia’s energy policy. Newnham first focused on how countries can use economic influence of energy into politics. To do so he argues that two basic circumstances should be met. First of all, it is important that the initiating country has a larger economy than the target country. Second, it useful if the initiating country has a lower percentage of its trade with the target than the target does with the initiating country (Newnham 2010; 135). Another interesting precondition Newnham mentions is that there should not be a direct substitute for countries. Therefore, he considers oil as leverage in foreign policy as not useful. He argues that oil can to some extent be brought in for example by ships from other states (Newnham 2010; 136). On the other hand gas, can generally only be shipped by pipelines, and therefore, once there is a pipeline from on country to another, it turns out that those consumer countries simply have no other source. Newnham concludes that all these three preconditions are met by Russia towards its neighboring countries. Therefore, such a monopoly position gives Russia huge market power over its customer states such as Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia, and therefore Newnham calls Russia the ‘Petro-Power’ (Newnham 2010: 136). How does Newnham explain that Russia is exploiting this energy weapon towards its neighboring countries?

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1.2.4. Energy as a tool in foreign policy; constraints by domestic interests seen from neoclassical realist approach

Kropatcheva adds to the discussion on energy as a leverage tool to explain the inconsistent policy of Russia that domestic interests of the dominant country should be taken into consideration. Kropatcheva argues that using energy as leverage has constraints because of domestic implications, therefore she analyzes energy as a foreign policy tool in the light of the neoclassical realist approach to international relations. In her article ‘He who has the pipe line calls the tune?’ Kropatcheva tries to explain the motives of countries by her theory on energy as a resource power seen from the neoclassical realist theory.

Kropatcheva argues that for realists although their focus on material power capabilities, they also agree that power next to ‘control over resources’ also entails ‘control over actor and outcomes’. Therefore, the ability of a state to use energy as a foreign policy has constraints (Kropatcheva 2014: 2). Kropatcheva describers that energy as a foreign policy tool should be seen in the light of neoclassical realism. First of all, the country’s foreign policy will be determined by its international position and relative power capabilities. However, Kropatcheva also proclaims that these systemic factors are influenced by the so called intervening domestic variables. In other words, the focus is on the state in the international system; however domestic factors also influence this foreign policy.

She uses Russia’s energy policy towards the EU and its neighboring countries as a case study. Kropatcheva introduces here the definition of energy as a resource power in foreign policy by political

issue linkage. She gives a very clear definition on energy as a resource power. Here the strategic use of

a resource power is defined as the ability of one nation to influence the behavior of another nation based on power, through the actual manipulation of international resource supplies (Kropatcheva 2014: 2). Put differently, a resource power has to make possible more than merely the accumulation of wealth. It has to enable the user to influence the behavior of other states. The analysis is not based on maximizing the countries’ resources, which can potentially lead to conflict, but the way in which energy is used as a tool to reach other foreign political goals (Kropatcheva 2014: 2). Therefore, to cut off the supply or threat to stop delivering the natural resource has to be linked to other foreign policy interests. To clarify, if country A cuts off the gas supply towards country B, it has to demand for other foreign policy goals. The announcement should be done by public statemens from politicians.

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countries, such as Belarus and Latvia. During the supply cut offs Russia made public statements towards these countries with additional foreign policy demands, which showed the political issue linkage and therefore that energy is used as a resource power.

It seems that Russia’s is following different tactics based on different power relations between countries, which explains the neoclassical realist approach (Kropatcheva 2014: 5). The definition of Kropatcheva to research energy as a resource power by political issue linkage is used to study the supply disruptions from water. The reason to choose this definition is that Kropatcheva is the only one who gives a clear description on how to ‘measure’ supply disruptions in relation to power in foreign policy.

1.2.5 Precondition for using a natural resource as power tool: asymmetrical dependency relations

Shaffer argues that before it is possible to draw general conclusions on energy used as a power tool, one should determine whether there are asymmetrical dependency relations based on the characteristics of the natural resource. In other words, nothing is said yet about what kind of foreign policy a specific country persuades towards other countries, first one should determine whether it is possible that a specific natural resource is used as a power tool towards other countries. In the articles from Newnham, Zaitzeiva and Kropatcheva there is no extensive explanation on the preconditions for asymmetrical dependency relations based on the characteristics of the natural resource, since they all focus on Russia’s power relations and Russia is already perceived in the geopolitical perspective compared to its neighboring countries (the former Soviet countries) as the most powerful state. In her article ‘natural gas supply stability and foreign policy’ Schaffer examines the relative influence of political relations between 35 gas trading countries and the stability of supply. Her article is focused on the preconditions of asymmetrical dependency and to what kind of different foreign policies on energy this possibly can lead. Shaffer distinguishes in her article three different types of relations between countries for natural resources. Her article is focused on energy as a natural resource. The article claims that natural resource supply relations generally take several forms: countries are not dependent on trade in natural resources, one side is dependent on the trade in natural resources, or both sides are interdependent in the gas trade. Shaffer proclaims that in cases of significant asymmetry in the degree of dependence in the natural resource trade, it is most likely that a country will be exploited by the less dependent party for foreign policy gain (Shaffer 2014: 114).

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on a general framework from Westling on the political characteristics of natural resources in relation to dependency for countries. These several different dependency relations possibly lead to three different types of foreign policy relations. These foreign policy relations all have different outcomes in probability of using energy as a power tool in foreign policy.

This research will apply these preconditions for assymetrical dependency relations towards the case study of Turkey. The reason to choose this specific framework is that the other articles focused only on Russia and its use of energy as a power tool. Russia is already perceived in the geopolitical perspective compared to its neighboring countries (the former Soviet countries) as the most powerful state. Because Shaffer researched 35 different power relations between countries she created an extensive framework for the preconditions to use energy as a resource power.

1.2.6. Energy supply disruptions: political issue linkage and economic interest

After Shaffer concluded on the preconditions for energy to be used as a resource power, she focused on the actual supply disruptions and linked other foreign policy goals to this, based on the decription from Kropatcheva to use energy as a resource power based on political issue linkage. Her conclusion here was that countries that did had a position of asymmetrical dependency link the shortage of their energy supplies with other foreign policy goals. She analyzed the foreign policies of countries a Kropatcheva did from the neo-classical realist perspective, with a focus on the systemic level but also on domestic decision-making on the national level.

The reason she gave that countries applied supply disruptions on other countries was based on the purpose to fulfill domestic economic interests. In other words, when they have shortages at home in their energy supply, they link political rhetoric, as a way to avoid commercial penalties. Since most of the time, when there are political issues at stake, states are free from their commercial obligations. Shaffer proclaims that natural gas most of the time is ‘wrongly perceived as a political tool, when it is actually the economic basis of a supply agreement, which is the motivation for the relative hegemon to disrupt the trade’ (Shaffer 2014: 124).

1.2.7 Sub conclusion on energy supply disruptions as tool in foreign policy

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the EU. Therefore, Kropatcheva argued that the focus should be on domestic interests of countries as well and analyzed energy disruptions from a neoclassical realist perspective. In addition, Kropatcheva describes how she measured energy as a resource power by linking supply disruptions with other political goals for Russia. The definition of Kropatcheva to research energy as a resource power by political issue linkage is used to study the supply disruptions from water. The reason to choose this definition is that Kropatcheva is gives a clear description on how to ‘measure’ supply disruptions in relation to power in foreign policy.The other theoris where more focused on financial strategies to use energy as a resource power.

Shaffer also did a research on political issue linkage in relations to energy as a power tool in foreign policies and researched 35 supply relations between countries. Since she analyzed so many case studies, she first made a description what the preconditions are for asymmetrical dependency between countries and when it is most likely that energy is used as a power tool. Shaffer took domestic interests of countries into consideration. She had an interesting conclusion on energy in relation to foreign policy. Her research concludes that natural gas is most of the time ‘wrongly perceived as a political tool, when it is actually the economic basis of a supply agreement, which is the motivation for the relative hegemon to disrupt the trade for domestic interests.

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1.3 Conclusion chapter 1

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Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework and Methodology

The first chapter elaborated on the gap in the existing literature on the use of water as a foreign policy tool. It concluded that so far in the academic field nothing is written on supply disruptions in relation to foreign policy. The second part of chapter 1 focused on several theories on energy, since there is extensive literature available on energy in relation to power in foreign policy. Chapter 2 elaborates on two of these theories and combines them into a research model by answering the question: ‘how will water supply disruptions be researched methodological as a coercive tool in foreign policy based on the existing literature on energy in foreign relations? The research model consists of two parts. The first part is focused on preconditions for a natural resource to be used as a power tool, based on the theory of Shaffer. The second part consists of how to measure if a natural resource is used as a power tool in foreign policy and the restrictions for using it as a power tool in foreign policy based on the theory of Kropatcheva. This research analysed from a neoclassical realists perspective and will elaborate in this chapter on how the theoretical elements are integrated into the specific framework. This chapter consists of two parts. The first part is focused on the theories of energy which will be used to be applied on water. The second part is focused on the methodology and methods of this research. In other words, how the knowledge will be acquired in this research, and the variables will measured.

2.1 Theoretical Framework

The theoretical framework consists of two parts. The first part elaborates on the preconditions for asymmetrical dependency relations on natural resources between countries. Asymmetrical dependency relations based on the natural resource are a precondition which according to Shaffer might lead to the use of a natural resource as a power tool in foreign policy. In other words, it is not self-evident that an asymmetrical dependency relation on a specific natural resource always leads to the use of a natural resource as a power tool; however when a natural resource is used as a power tool in foreign policy, there is an asymmetrical dependency relation. Therefore, as a starting point, to test whether it is possible for Turkey to use water as a power tool in foreign policy towards Syria and Iraq, this research elaborates on the preconditions of asymmetrical dependency. These preconditions are based on several political characteristics of natural resources selected by Shaffer. The preconditions from Kropatcheva mentioned in the first chaper, will also be used discussed in the theoretical framework, based on a neoclassical realist approach.

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2.1.1 Asymmetrical dependency relations: Shaffer

As described in the literature review, Shaffer distinguishes in her article three different types of relations between countries for natural resources; countries are not dependent on trade in natural resources, one side is dependent on the trade in natural resources, or both sides are interdependent in the gas trade. Accordingly to Shaffer, the three different models of supply relations produced very different conditions for politics to come into play. The degree of dependency depends on the political characteristics of energy based on the scarcity, economic pricing and infrastructure (Shaffer 2014: 117). She has based this selection of political characteristics on a general framework from Westling on the political characteristics of natural resources in relation to dependency for countries, which will shortly be dissucces below.

Characteristics of Natural Resources for the use of power

Natural resources many different characteristics, from liquid to solid, from hard to require to easily accessible. Nevertheless, this research focusses on the characteristics of natural resources in relation to power. Reason for this is that according to the theory on resources by Westling, who wrote the book ‘Global Resources and Environmental factors in Strategic Policy and Action’ only resources that are in short supply can be linked to power (Westling 1986: 3). Natural resources are in short supply or scarce for any country when demand exceeds availability. Natural resources can also be of short supply for countries and for the world as a whole. This short supply caused by excessive population growth and to misuse of natural resources. Excessive population growth can be described as a phenomenon when growth rate is more rapidly than the ability to: (1) extract or harvest this essential resource; (2) obtain this resource from beyond its border; (3) substitute for it (Westling 1986: 4).

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the political dynamics associated with natural gas trade are different from those other natural resources: few traded goods are supplied by the way of permanent infrastructure and long-term supply arrangements, infrastructure in fixed locations, states must approve the installations and route, and often provide security of the infrastructure and facilities (Shaffer 2013: 117). In most cases, states are formal sides to the agreements. Natural gas trade is a highly regulated sphere. Most natural gas trade does not take place in competitive gas-on-gas markets. On the other hand, there are natural resources which are traded on the spot market, for example oil. The price is set by the market and easily shipped from one country to another. There are no pipelines or long term interdependency. According the research of Shaffer, politics come more easily into play when long-term infrastructure has to be arranged, instead of ad-hoc pricing. Reason for this is that with ad hoc pricing it is easy to start trading with other countries or partners when there are disruptions in the supply. When there is a fixed infrastructure, there is more interdependency between the countries and it is easier to use the natural resource as a power tool.

Types of Relations in Natural Resources

The reason why this research will elaborate on these relations is because they all are based on relative power relations, which is also the focus of the neoclassical realists and as shown later is this chapter useful for the strategic use of natural resources in foreign policy. Shaffer distinguishes in her article three different types of relations between countries for natural resources. Her article is focused on energy as a natural resource. The article claims that natural resource supply relations generally take several forms: countries are not dependent on trade in natural resources, one side is dependent on the trade in natural resources, or both sides are interdependent in the gas trade. Cases of significant asymmetry of the degree of dependence in the natural resource trade are most likely to be exploited by the less dependent party for foreign policy gain. Accordingly, the three different models of supply relations produced very different conditions for politics to come into play. The degree of dependency depends on the political characteristics of natural resources mentioned earlier; scarcity, economic pricing and infrastructure (Shaffer 2013: 117).

2.1.2 Sub conclusion on asymmetrical dependency relations and power

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the situation in Turkey to ‘check’ whether there is an asymmetrical dependency relation between Turkey, Syria and Iraq. The preconditions of Shaffer lead to the creation of the following model 1. This model shows how the different political characteristics of the natural resources lead to different relations between countries. When there is assymetrical dependency it is possible to use a natural resource as a power tool.

Model 1: precondition for a natural resource to lead to an asymmetrical dependency relation, based on the theory of Shaffer

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2.1.3 Energy as power tool from Neoclassical Realist approach: Kropatcheva

The first part of the theoretical framework focused on the preconditions for an asymmetrical power relation, which gives the possibility to use energy as a power tool, regardless the political relations between countries. The second part of the theoretical framework does focus on the political preconditions of countries, which are explained by Kropatcheva. According to Kropatcheva the use of energy as a resource power should be explained by a neoclassical realist aproach by analyzing whether the country is the relative hegemon and by taking domestic decision-making into consideration. Kropatcheva argues that Russia is using energy as a resource power towards its neighboring countries and the EU based on a neoclassical realist approach. due to the position of a relative hegemon from Russia towards other countries, Russia has the potential to use water as a resource power. However, she also argues that there are some restrictions on using energy as a resource power based on domestic decision-making. This research will also use this neoclassical realist approach to study water supply disruptions, and therefore first there will be a short elaboration on neoclassical realism. After that, there will be an elaboration on how this neoclassical realism is integrated into the theoretical framework. Before focusing on the neoclassical realist approach this research will give the definition of energy as a resource power by Kropatcheva.

Definition of energy as resource power by Kropatcheva: political issue linkage

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She concludes that Russia did use this political issue linkage towards its neighboring countries, acting from the position of the relative hegemon, towards its neighboring countries Belarus, Ukraine and Latvia. However, Russia did not use energy as a foreign policy tool towards the EU. Kropatcheva explained this outcome in the light of the neoclassical realist approach, which will be discussed below.

2.1.4 Neoclassical Realism

Before the strategic use of natural resources in foreign policy will be discussed, this subchapter will first elaborate on the theory of realism itself with the focus on natural resources. After that, the research elaborates one a specific approach of the realistic theory: the neoclassical realistic theory. Since Kropatcheva explains the use of energy as a resource power from the perspective of neoclassical realism.

Realism

A realist perspective is often used when referring to a state dealing with natural resources in relation to power. Energy in particular is considered as a foreign policy tool to reach other political goals (Dannreuther 2010: 2–5). The core assumptions of realism; anarchy, state-centrism, power, self-help, rationality and state-centrism will shortly be discussed in relation to natural resources (Donelly 2001: 31-32) According to realism, the international system is perceived as anarchy, since the absence of an international government. Therefore, states want to survive and they use self-help methods to defend themselves and increase power (Donnelly 2001: 31).

The main focus of the realist analysis is on states and state actors, who are considered to be rational actors, interested in increasing their natural resource capabilities and security. Natural resource capabilities are considered to be a pivotal component of the balance of power games (Klare 2001: 33), and a key tool of national power and national interests (Dannreuther 2010: 3)

Power is an important concept within realism, since it defines a countries’ status in the anarchic system. The national interest must be defined in terms of power. (Klare 2001: 33) Here, the emphasis lies on relative power. Relative power is the function of the distribution of power for states (Keukeleire 2008: 5). The core realists advocate that power includes control over resources, and domestic politics should be treated as a ‘black box’. With ‘black box’ realists argue that all domestic developments are subordinated to national interest and foreign policies (Keukeleire 2008: 5).

Neoclassical Realism

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selection of a grand strategy and, therefore, in the prospects of international conflict and cooperation,” systemic realist explanations are “radically incomplete’’ and do not account for what nations actually do (Rose: 1998, 168). To put it in other words, analyzing foreign policy in relation to natural resources in the light of neoclassical is done for several reasons. First of all at the systemic level material power is the most important concept to look at. Second, neoclassical realism aims at explaining the foreign policies of states in certain contexts, while taking into consideration the internal differences between states (Costalli: 2009, 326).

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Master Thesis International Relations Table 1: neoclassical Realism

The neoclassical realist view on international relations has several implications for foreign policies of countries. However before taking the influence of natural resources on foreign policy into consideration, first an elaboration on the level of analyses and the external and internal variables will be given.

The level of analyses

To understand the way neoclassical realists perceive the concept of foreign policy, this research shortly elaborates on the concept of the level of analyses first mentioned by Waltz in 1959 in his book Man,

State and War. The level of analyses helps to consider how to analyze state behavior. Within IR theory

there are in general three different levels of analysis (Waltz 1959: 11). The first one is the individual level, which focuses on people. People make decisions within nation states and therefore people make foreign policy. Scholars might look at the roles of different leaders. These are theories that explain the

Neoclassical

Realism

Variables

Factors

Level of

Analyses

Applied by

Kropatcheva

for natural

resources

Foreign policy

on using a

natural

resource as

resource

power is

shaped by:

External

Independent

Variable

relative power Systemic level States have to act in the position of power, have to be the relative hegemon unit level intervening internal variables Decision-making process

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behavior of states by looking at the way leaders act in a certain way, so for example to look at the end of the Cold War by studying Gorbachov (Newmann 2001). The second level of analysis is on the state level. State level analysis examines the foreign policy behavior of states in terms of state characteristics. For example, some scholars say that all democracies behave a certain way; they don’t fight with other democracies. The first one who mentioned this approach was Emanuel Kant in his book Perpetual Peace in 1795 (Junou, Schmidt: 2009 12). The third level of analyses is based on the systemic level or international system. Here the international system can be perceived as the cause, while the state behavior is seen as the effect. In the international system the key variable is the power of a state within the system.

Neoclassical realism takes both the state level and the systemic level in consideration in their approach on which will elaborated below. Here also Kropatcheva her view on energy will be incorporated in the research.

Systemic level, relative power and neoclassical realism

As seen in the introduction on neoclassical realism, the systemic factor of relative power is first the most important level of analyses, which shapes foreign policy. Here comes up the question; what does neoclassical realism means with the concept of power.

To understand how neoclassical realists view the concept of power, this subchapter will give a short elaboration on the concept of power within the different fields of realism. Neoclassical realists share the view of all realists that international politics can be described as a continuous struggle for power. They also agree with structural realists that international anarchy is an important factor contributing to the relentless search for power (Junou, Schmidt: 2009 13). As Rose specifies, they believe that “the scope and ambition of a country’s foreign policy is driven first and foremost by its place in the international system and specifically by its relative material capabilities.’ (Rose: 1999, 165). In other words, power is the central focus point. Relative material capabilities can be measured by military power, natural resources and gross domestic product (Junou, Schmidt: 2009 13). However, other than structural realists, neoclassical realists argue that you need to look within societies as well as between them,.An example of such a neoclassical way of thinking is Kitchen who looks in his research first to systemic pressures and after to domestic ideas (Kitchen: 2010, 141).

State level, domestic decision making and neoclassical realism

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(capacities/foreign policy instruments), for what kind of purpose (objectives/interests) and by what means (decision-making procedures) are foreign policy decisions made (Harnisch 2002: 23).

2.1.5 Kropatcheva’s approach on energy and external independent variables, systemic level

Kropatcheva her article is based on strategic use of energy as a resource power of Russia vis-à-vis the EU. However, the first part of her article is a general theory on natural resources as a resource power seen from the neoclassical realist approach. She argues that the action plan of a country on natural resources is based on a two-level game for the implementation of their strategy. On the one hand, they must respond to the external environment (systemic factor, independent variable) and on the other hand they must extract resources and mobilize resources from the domestic society (Kropatcheva 2014: 12). The systemic factor is based on the basic circumstance of relative power of the neoclassical realist theory. To clarify, here is an example; the country that has the potential to strategically use natural resources is country ‘A’. The country which will be affected by this policy is country ‘B’. The first basic circumstance is based on the systemic factor which states that country ‘A’ has to be the regional hegemon in the region where both countries operate. This is the independent variable mentioned at the neo-classical level. Here the argument states that the international system is based on relative power capabilities and states have a goal to increase this relative power. When studying the strategic use of natural resources, the concept of relative power capabilities should be the starting point, next to the already determined asymmetrical dependency relation to look at the concept. In other words, states have to act in a position of power, feeling strong enough to influence other actors by natural resources (Kropatcheva 2014: 12).

2.1.6 Kropatcheva’s approach on energy and internal independent variables, domestic decisions

Kropatcheva mentions decision-making as the important unit level intervening domestic variable. She states that the ability of a government to influence stake holders of a particular resource plays a vital role in the countries possibilities to ‘turn the tap.’ Furthermore, even more important are the domestic interests of the decision-makers, in this case the ruling parties concerning the domestic policy towards the natural resource (Kropatcheva 2014: 12). The influence from domestic decision-making can lead to other foreign policy outcomes than expected. In other words, when it is desirable to cut off the energy supply for domestic interests, energy is not used as a foreign policy tool as expected but just for saving the energy for the domestic market. According to Kropatcheva in this case energy is not used as a foreign policy goal, but solely to fulfill domestic interests.

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stability of supply of energy as a natural resource in two cases, namely the supply of Egypt’s energy to Israel and Jordan and Russia’s energy to Azerbaijan. Shaffer concluded that this stability of supply was affected by several developments: First of course, as discussed before it is affected by the relative dependency from country A to B. However, Shaffer adds to the discussion an internal independent variable which should be taken into consideration based on the neoclassical realist theory. This is the decision making process and domestic interests on energy in the involved states. She concludes that most of the supply disruptions served the purpose to fulfill domestic economic interests. In other words, when they have shortages at home in their energy supply, they link political rhetoric, as a way to avoid commercial penalties. Since most of the time, when there are political issues at stake, states are free from their commercial obligations. Shaffer proclaims that natural gas most of the time is ‘wrongly perceived as a political tool, when it is actually the economic basis of a supply agreement, which is the motivation for the relative hegemon to disrupt the trade’ (Shaffer 2014: 124). In other words, the domestic goals of decision-makers should also be taken into consideration, since they can use energy supply disruptions for their own domestic agenda and therefore it is misleading to draw to quickly conclusions on the use of energy as a resource power, while keeping the energy for the domestic market is the actual reason.

2.1.7 Sub conclusions on theoretical framework

This theoretical framework advocates that it is possible for a country to use energy as a natural resource power when the preconditions of asymmetrical dependency and being the relative hegemon are met in relations towards other countries. Furthermore, on the domestic level there are restrictions in using energy as a resource power by domestic decision-makers. These limitations should also be taken into consideration when studying energy as a resource power in foreign policy. In other words, this research will first check the capacities of a country to use a natural resource as a resource power. Why does this research first want to ‘check’ the capacities of a country (in this case Turkey) to use a natural resource as a power tool in foreign policy? The reason is that this research investigates whether the supply disruptions from Turkey can be explained from the motive of using power in foreign policy. Therefore, before determining whether this is the case, it is important to elaborate on the power relations of turkey towards Syria and Iraq and check whether this is possible.

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Model 2: The theory of Kropatcheva and Shaffer combined: This research will analyse the situation in Turkey by 2 steps:

1. the first step is to analyse whether it is possible for Turkey to use water as a resource power based on preconditions and restrictions.

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2.2 Methodology and methods

The first chapter elaborated on the existing gap in the literature on water as a power tool in foreign policy and the way energy is perceived as a power tool in foreign policy. The theoretical framework of the first part in chapter 2 elaborated on which theories on energy are selected to be applied to the situation in Turkey based on water. This part of the research will discuss on how these theories will be applied to the situation of Turkey and how the different variables will be tested. This research analyses from a naturalist methodology. This methodological perspective, expects to find general patterns. In other words, the collection of empirical evidence is used to predict certain patterns (Mozes, Knutson 2012: 7).

As described in the theoretical framework, the first part will check whether Turkey has the capacities to use water as a resource power based on the characteristics of energy as a resource power, the second part will check whether Turkey indeed used political issue linkage described by Kropatcheva to use water as a resource power in foreign policy. By applying these theories based on energy as a foreign policy tool, this research will draw conclusions whether the theory on energy as a resource power in foreign policy explains Turkey’s energy supply disruptions.

2.3 Data Collection and the Choice of Methods

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documents, the third source which will be consulted is based on existing secondary literature on Turkey and its water policy.

2.4 Measurement of Variables Step 1; preconditions and restrictions

The first part of this chapter discussed which kind of material this research uses to collect information. This part will discuss how to operationalize the different variables in the model by discussing about ‘what’ this research looks for in these different kind of data to use as a kind of ‘proof’ for supporting the theory.

2.4.1. Characteristics of natural resources, independent variables

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country, combined by scarcity a high form of dependency relation is created.

The second political character of water which will be analyzed deals with economic pricing. Here, this research will determine if there is an economic price for water. Does the Turkish government ask a price for the water which flows into the countries Syria and Iraq? And does Turkey ‘earn money’ if they keep the water inside their country. In other words, economic pricing is twofold internationally and domestically. Shaffer argues that when there is no economic value, the interaction of this natural resource changes from trade to rather sharing which leads to a dependent relationship for the consumer state, since there is no intention for the country who owns the resource to deliver it to the other countries (Shaffer 2013: 117).

The last political character is the infrastructure of the supply of the natural resource. This can be measured by looking at the supply possibilities of the natural resources. Is it easy for the dependent countries to turn to other countries for the supply of the natural resource when the most powerful country will stop delivering the natural resource? These political characteristics lead to different types of dependency as shown in the model 1 from chapter 2. These different political characteristics lead to different dependency relations.

2.4.2 External independent variable, systemic factor

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2.4.3 Internal independent variable, domestic-decision making

As mentioned in chapter 1 the internal independent variable is focused on domestic-decision-making. This is measured by looking at the stakeholders of water projects in the Tigris and the Euphrates. When this is also owned by governments there could be a possibility that it is an auxiliary goal for Turkish decision makers to block the water for domestic purposes. Therefore, it is important to look at the domestic goals of the GAP project for the domestic decision-makers. In other words, what are the interests for the (ruling) political parties concerning the domestic policy towards the rivers the Tigris and Euphrates?

2.5 Measurement of variables of step 2: Water as a resource power in foreign

policy

After the first step of the theoretical framework has been analyzed, this research will focus on the empirical evidence if water is used as a resource power in foreign policy. Here conclusions will be drawn if the theoretical predictions based on the research model are applicable to water based on the information about water as a resource power. Here the strategic use of a resource power is defined as the ability of one nation to influence the behavior of another nation based on power, through the actual manipulation of international resource transfers to cut off the energy supplies (Kropatcheva 2014: 2). Put differently, a resource power has to make possible more than merely the accumulation of wealth. How did Kropatcheva measured if Russia used energy as a resource power in foreign policy? When there was a supply disruption of energy from Russia, Kropatcheva checked whether there was at the same time a political crisis between Russia and the country who suffered from the supply disruption. So Kropatcheva checked whether Russian policy makers linked other foreign policy goals by making public statements on the reason why the energy supply disruption has been there. Kropatcheva calls this

political issue linkage by Russia. Here the focus is on communication; did Russia demand certain

behavior from its neighboring countries when cutting of the energy supply?

2.6 Time frame to analyze these foreign policies

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agreement about the supply. At this moment it is clear how much the supplier country should deliver the consumer countries (Shaffer 2013: 121).

To analyze if Turkey uses water as a resource power in foreign policy towards Syria and Iraq, first will be an analysis of the Turkish-Syrian and Turkish-Iraqi relations. When there are tensions between the countries, most likely because of the Kurdish Question as explained before, this research will investigate whether Turkey has cut off the water supply to Syria and Iraq, or threaten to do so, while there were other political issues between the countries at the same time. The investigation starts at the year 1987. Reason to do so is since this moment there has been a treaty between Turkey and Syria and Iraq on the amount of water that should flow to Syria and Iraq from the Tigris and Euphrates. As mentioned earlier this chapter, Turkey agreed with Syria and Iraq to ‘deliver’ a water flow of up to 500 cubic meters per second from the Euphrates-Tigris Basin for Syria and Iraq. This treaty is called the ‘Protocol on Economic Cooperation 1987’. The book ‘Water Law and Cooperation in the Euphrates-Tigris Region’ gives an extensive elaboration on this treaty. Here it comes clear that one of the biggest shortcomings of this treaty is the lack of punishment for Turkey if it does not fulfill its duties. There is no financial punishment or whatsoever if Turkey does not deliver these amounts of water to Syria or Iraq (Kibaroğlu, Kirschner 2013, 122).

2.7 Conclucion chapter 2

The second chapter discussesed the theoretical framework and methodological part by answering the question: ‘how will water be researched methodological as a coercive tool in foreign politics based on the existing literature on energy in foreign relations? The theoretical framework is divided in two steps. The theoretical framework of energy is applied on the case study on water in two steps: first there will be determined whether Turkey has the capacities to use water as a resource power based on the characteristics on the use of energy as a power tool in foreign policy, by analyzing asymmetrical dependency, relative hegemon and domestic decision-making from Turkey. The second step will analyze Turkish political issue linkage by using water as a resource power.

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Chapter 3: Emperical Indicators: Turkey’s foreign policy on water

This chapter will focus on Turkey and its policy on the Tigris and Euphrates, by answering the question: What are the empirical outcomes when analyzing Turkey’s foreign policy on water towards Syria and Iraq, guided by the research model on energy? Before applying the case study to the theoretical framework, this chapter first elaborates on the justification for choosing the specific situation in Turkey to analyze in this research. After the justification of the case study, there will be some background information on the case study. This chapter will apply the created model of chapter 2 on page 32 to the case study of Turkey and its policy towards the Tigris and Euphrates. It will first test whether it is possible to use water as a resource power in foreign policy. Secondly, this chapter will elaborate on empirical indicators if Turkey used water a resource power towards Syria and Iraq by analyzing the supply disruptions in relation to statements in the media made by Turkish politicians.

3.1 Justification for selecting specific case study

This research has chosen to apply the theoretical framework of energy on Turkish policy on the Tigris and Euphrates for several reasons:

The first reason to choose to analyze this specific case study is because there are signs that Turkey is using water as a power tool, however there is no systematic research done yet in the academic field. To be more precise, Turkey has cut off the water supply several times towards Syria and Iraq by its dams from the GAP project. The GAP project consists of a large amount of dams which enables Turkey to cut off the water supplies, which will be further explained below. The media have accused Turkey from using water as a power tool in foreign policy. For example an article in the Guardian in July 2014 claimed that the control over water dams has become a ‘tactical weapon’ towards Syria and Iraq for Turkey’s foreign policy goals (The Guardian/environment/2014/Jul). In the academic field however, there is no comprehensive theory on the use of water as a foreign policy tool.

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