Perceived uncertainty and reactions toward
change: the role of hope and fear, joy and
excitement, and anger and sadness.
Perceived uncertainty: a context for positivity ?
University of Groningen, the Netherlands
Faculty of Economics and Business
MSc Business Administration
Change Management
Master thesis
30-08-2013
Michel Kloeze
S1534920
Nieuwe Boteringestraat 39a
9712 PH Groningen
Tel: +31 (0) 649 314 151
E-mail: michelkloeze@gmail.com
Supervisor University: Dr. B. Emans
Co-assessor University: Dr. C. Reezigt
Supervisor The Netherlands Police Agency: Mr. R. Bronswijk
2 Abstract
Employees’ reactions toward change are critical in the success of change. In that respect, it was studied whether feelings about change (emotional reaction) mediate the relation between beliefs about the change outcome (cognitive reaction) and intentions toward change (intentional reaction). In addition, it was studied how the perceived usefulness of information and perceived uncertainty were reflected in reactions toward change.
In the context of the restructuring of the Dutch policing system, the results of regression analysis of data from questionnaires (n=94) collected at the Netherlands Police Agency, showed interesting findings. It was found that the intentional reaction to support change was predicted by the belief that the change would advance organizational goals and feelings of hope, and the intentional reaction to resist change was predicted by the perceived uncertainty. Furthermore, it was found that that perceived uncertainty predicted negative beliefs about the change outcome for those employees who had little hope or were fearful.
3 Contents
Introduction ... 4
Theory ... 8
Attitude toward change ... 8
The intentional reaction ... 8
The emotional reaction... 9
The cognitive reaction ... 11
Antecedents of attitude toward change ... 14
Perceived uncertainty ... 15
Perceived usefulness of information ... 16
Elaborated model ... 18
Research methods ... 19
National Police ... 19
The Netherlands Police Agency ... 20
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Introduction
Since the nineties there is a growing attention for employees’ reactions toward change (Peet et al., 2012). This growing attention coincides with the realization that employees’ reactions toward change are a main determinant of the extent to which any change can succeed (Oreg et al., 2010). This is based on the idea that organizations only act and therewith only change through their members (Choi, 2011 and George & Jones, 2001). Change must be implemented by those who are affected by it, the employees, (Armenakis & Harris, 2009). This makes the employees’ reactions toward change critical in the success of change.
It is therefore that the employees’ reactions toward change are a commonly stated reason for the success or failure of change. Moreover, when the change leaders of an organization try to implement change, they rely on, or expect, if not hope for, the support of their employees – i.e. positive reactions toward change (Smollan, 2006). However, in everyday practice there is not only support for change, there is also resistance to change – i.e. negative reactions toward change.
Therefore, a key challenge for change leaders is the ability to predict and handle different reactions toward change (Stensaker & Meyer, 2012). The ability to predict different reactions toward change provides practical insight in how to best lead change (Armenakis & Harris, 2009).
Studies on change related behavior are commonly based on an attitude approach, in which the attitude is of predictive value for the behavior (Peet et al, 2012). The attitude consists of three dimensions, namely; the cognitive reaction, the emotional reaction and the intentional reaction. These three reactions are part of the decision making process of the employee that result in change related behavior and are therefore so called precursors (Armenakis et al., 2007). According to Peet et al. (2012) the two most common attitude approaches are: the tripartite conception of attitude toward change and the Theory of Planned Behavior.
First, the tripartite conception of attitude toward change, considers cognitive, emotional and intentional reactions toward change as separate dimensions of the attitude (Bouckenooghe, 2011, Oreg et al., 2010, Peet et al., 2012, Piderit, 2000). The cognitive dimension refers to an employee’s beliefs about the change outcome, the emotional dimension refers to an employee’s feelings in reaction toward change, and the intentional dimension refers to how an employee intends to react toward change (Oreg et al, 2010, Piderit, 2000). Only the three dimensions together fully comprises the attitude toward change; “Each of
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The second approach finds its origin in the work of Ajzen (1985), the Theory of Planned Behavior, an extension of the Reasoned Action Theory from Fishbein and Ajzen (1975). The Theory of Planned Behavior is a theory designed to predict and explain human behavior in specific contexts (Ajzen, 1991). A central factor in the theory is an individual’s intention, which is assumed to capture the motivational aspects that influence a behavior (Ajzen, 1991). In this approach, the attitude is assumed to reasonably develop from the individual’s, positively or negatively valued, reactions toward the object of the attitude (Ajzen, 1991), and the attitude as such brings about the intention (Peet et al., 2012).
The aim of this study is to contribute to the field of change related behavior based on an attitude approach which perhaps can be best described as a fusion of the tripartite conception and the Theory of Planned Behavior. I.e. the attitude approach adopted in this study is derived from, by maintaining to specific features of, both approaches.
Building on this attitude approach, the main purpose of this study is to examine associations between reactions toward change. With regard to this purpose, the key assumption is that the emotional reaction toward change is expected to mediate the association between the cognitive and intentional reaction toward change.
In short, the line of reasoning underlying this key assumption is as follows: according to the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), intentions reasonably develop from cognitive and emotional reactions toward change. According to the cognitive perspective on change, the change becomes meaningful through an employee’s sense-making and emotional reactions are elicited by the ‘meaning of situations’. Subsequently, according to the theory of cognitive appraisal, each feeling about change or emotional reaction implies a specific action tendency – i.e. affects the intentional reaction.
In order to test this key assumption, the attitude approach adopted in this study maintains to three associated and equivalent dimensions that make up the attitude toward change. Therewith, an important feature of the tripartite conception is sustained, namely the rich conceptualization of reactions toward change – i.e. predicting change related behavior captured by the three dimensions together. This is in contrast with the general tendency to capture supportive behavior by cognitive dimension of attitude toward change and resistance behavior by intentional dimension of attitude toward change (Bouckenooghe, 2010), which doesn’t seem to reflect these behaviors properly and entirely.
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which brings about the intention. In that sense, Ajzen (1991) as well, although implicitly, holds on to three dimensions toward change.
Furthermore, the feature of association between the reactions, partially similar to the theory of planned behavior, is maintained. Whereas the Theory of Planned Behavior argues that the intentional reaction reasonably develops from cognitive and emotional reactions, in this study it is argued that these reactions are associated because of a mediating effect of the emotional reaction between cognitive and intentional reactions toward change.
Since change involves going from the known to the unknown (Bovey & Hede, Resistance to organizational change: the role of cognitive and affective processes, 2001a), it is of no surprise that the employees, to a greater or lesser extent, perceive uncertainty. Therefore, the secondary purpose of this study is to examine how perceived uncertainty is associated to the reactions toward change. This gives a better understanding of how perceived uncertainty affects reaction toward change or is reflected in the attitude toward change. With regard to this secondary purpose, the assumption is that perceived uncertainty is expected to be reflected in, and thereby associated to, the cognitive and emotional reaction toward change, while upholding the key assumption that the emotional reaction toward change has a mediating effect. As a consequence, the emotional reaction toward change not only mediates with respect to the cognitive reaction toward change but also with respect to perceived uncertainty.
This assumption is based on the following: perceived uncertainty is primarily a self-perception about one’s own cognitions (Brashers, 2001) and that whether feeling certain or uncertain about a situation differentiates between various emotional reactions toward change (Baumgartner et al., 2008).
In addition, concerning the secondary purpose, the inclusion of the perceived usefulness of information is considered an appropriate addition. Given that, based on literature on perceived uncertainty, it appears that change related communication enables employees to make predictions about the change outcome and as such the available information reduces perceived uncertainty. The inclusion of the perceived usefulness of information has one additional advantage: the perceived usefulness of information shapes the cognitive reaction toward change (Wanberg and Banas, 2000).
It is therefore assumed that the perceived usefulness of information is associated to perceived uncertainty and the cognitive reaction toward change and therewith the secondary purpose is further extended.
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inclusion of additional variables is acceptable when they show to capture a significant part of the proportion of variance after the other variables are taken into account (Ajzen, 1991).
Figure 1 visualizes the features of the adopted approach in a basic conceptual model.
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Theory
This chapter presents the theoretical foundation on which the assumptions from the introduction are based. Furthermore, it provides the relevant information to draw up hypothesizes which are required to test these assumptions. As such, this chapter consists of two main sections. The first section provides information about the attitude toward change and concerns the main purpose and the following assumption:
- The emotional reaction is expected to mediate the association between the cognitive and intentional reaction toward change.
The second section provides information about the two antecedents of attitude toward change and concerns the secondary purpose and the following assumptions:
- Perceived uncertainty is expected to be reflected in, and therewith associated to, the cognitive and emotional reaction toward change.
- The perceived usefulness of information is associated to perceived uncertainty and the cognitive reaction toward change.
Attitude toward change
Attitude toward change is an overarching construct capturing employees’ reactions toward change along three dimensions – the cognitive, emotional and intentional dimension. As overarching construct, the attitude refers to “a person’s overall evaluation of change (Petty and Wegener, 1998) and is
a psychological tendency that is expressed by evaluating the change with some degree of favor or disfavor (Eagly and Chaiken, 1998)” (From: Lines, 2005, p.10). The dimensions each reflect different
manifestations of an individual’s evaluation of a change and only together fully reflect the attitude toward change. In this regard, each employee reacts to change in a unique way (Bouckenooghe, 2010). However, each employee reacts to change in terms of a cognitive, emotional and intentional reaction toward change. These reactions directly relate to how employees think and feel about change and intend to do so accordingly (Oreg et al., 2010). The intentional, emotional and cognitive reaction are discussed below in more detail.
The intentional reaction
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According to Ajzen (1991, p. 181) intentions capture the motivational factors that influence a behavior. Intentions are assumed to indicate how hard an employee is willing to try, of how much of an effort he or she is planning to exert, in order to perform the behavior (Ajzen, 1991). Thereby, intentions express what employees say they do, plan to do or would do under given circumstances (Metselaar, 1997).
The supportive intentions produce “behaviors that are focused, persistent, and effortful in their
attempts to support and facilitate the implementation of change” (Lines, 2005, p. 19). I.e. supportive
intentions are conducive to behaviors that are associated to implementation speed and success that cannot be enforced and therefore are voluntary, within the context of a job, work unit or the organization.
And the resistance intentions produce behaviors including the following: “strong voicing of
opposing points of view; ridicule of change, the process, and its premises, boycotts of arenas where change is discussed, blocking behaviors, and sabotage” (Lines, 2005, p. 21).
The emotional reaction
The emotional reaction toward change is one of the dimensions of the construct attitude toward change. It refers to an employee’s emotions (feelings) in reaction to change. This section elaborates on the emotional reaction in itself and in association to the intentional reaction toward change.
According to Mossholder et al. (2000) it may well be that when it comes to organizational phenomena, perhaps nowhere is a greater potential for emotion-eliciting events than in conjunction with large scale organizational change. Therefore, organizational change is often associated with strong emotional reactions.
In general, emotional reactions are defined by four specific components related to the focal object of the attitude – change (Frijda, 1993). The four components are (Giaever, 2009):
1. An immediate subjective experience (sensing the emotional state) 2. A physiological dimension (recognizable bodily changes)
3. A cognitive dimension or evaluation of the situation 4. A tendency to react or behave in relation to the emotion
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The emotional reaction associated to the intentional reaction: Action tendency
“All emotions in essence are the impulses to act, … The very root of the word emotion is motere the Latin word which means ‘to move’, plus the prefix ‘e’ to connote ‘move away’ suggesting that a tendency to act exists in every emotion”.
- Chaturvedi M. and Chandler R. 2010
Lazarus (1991, p. 352) states that: “Without some version of a motivational principle, emotion
makes little sense, inasmuch as what is important to us determines what we define as harmful or beneficial, hence emotional”. Frijda et al. (1989) refer to this motivational principle of emotions with the
term state of action readiness. A state of action readiness “is defined as the individual’s readiness or
un-readiness to engage in interaction with the environment. Readiness may consist of action tendency, that is, readiness to engage in or disengage from interaction with some goal object in some particular fashion” (Frijda et al., 1989, p. 213). Therewith, the emotional reaction seemingly harmonizes with the
intentional reaction.
According to Frijda et al. (1989) emotions can be unambiguously associated to a particular form of action readiness. I.e. all emotions can be defined in in terms of some form of action tendency (Frijda et al., 1989). In the following, the emotions relevant to this study, hope and fear, joy and excitement, anger and sadness, are elaborated in association to the intentional reaction by this action tendency.
Hope: In terms of action tendency, hope is associated to the tendency to approach a situation and staying committed to a situation (Frijda et al., 1989 and Lazarus, 1991). Hope is a tendency based on the expectation and wish that the future work situation will be better after the change.
Fear: In terms of action tendency, fear is associated to the tendency to escape from or to avoid a situation (Frijda et al., 1989 and Lazarus, 1991). Fear is based on the idea of protecting oneself (Frijda et al., 1989).
Joy and excitement: In terms of action tendency, joy and excitement are associated to the tendency to approach a situation (Frijda, 1989 and Lazarus, 1991). Joy and excitement are a tendency based on the idea of accomplishment of, and progression toward goals.
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antagonistic tendency of opposition (Frijda et al., 1989). Anger is a tendency based on the idea of unfairness (Frijda et al., 1989) or a demeaning offence against me and mine (Lazarus, 1991).
Sadness: In terms of action tendency, sadness is associated to, not so much a tendency but, a state of helplessness (Frijda et al., 1989). “In sadness there seems to be no clear action tendency, except
inaction or withdrawal into oneself” (Lazarus, 1991). Sadness is a tendency based on the idea of an
irrevocable loss, a sense of helplessness about restoration of loss (Lazarus, 1991).
Summarizing the above, the positive emotions are all defined in terms of approaching a situation and the negative emotions are defined in terms of to escape from, to avoid, to move against, withdrawal from or even to attack a situation.
Therefore it is hypothesized that the positive emotional reactions:
H1a: are positively associated to supportive intentions.
And the negative emotional reactions:
H1b: are positively associated to resistance intentions.
The cognitive reaction
The cognitive reaction toward change is one the dimensions of the construct attitude toward change. It refers to an employee’s beliefs about the change outcome. This section elaborates on the cognitive reaction in itself and in association to the intentional and emotional reaction toward change.
In all instances of pending organizational change employees make sense of the change. Employees make sense of change in terms of what they believe that the change means (Oreg et al., 2010). The meaning employees give to change is represented by their beliefs about the change outcome – the cognitive reaction toward change. In order to understand how employees make sense of change the cognitive perspective on change is discussed in more detail.
Cognitive perspective
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knowledge of change attributes” (Lau & Woodman, 1995). The change schema enables an employee to
make sense of the antecedents, consequences, and meaning and significance of change.
A change schema consists of three dimensions with each a specific feature (Lau & Woodman, 1995). The causality dimension provides an employee with “a frame of reference about event sequences
and connections between event and people. It provides a framework for causality in the attribution process…” (Lau & Woodman, 1995, p. 539). Causal attributions are considered a particular type of
knowledge and concern change related matters, such as: who, what, where, when, how and why (Smith et al., 1993). The causality dimension provides the knowledge framework representing these change related matters. The knowledge framework consists of information about change related matters provided through communication about change. In the second section of this chapter the relevance of the causality dimension with respect to the perceived usefulness of information is discussed in more detail.
The inference dimension enables an employee “to make predictions about the future, or make
inferences, by specifying the likelihood of the occurrence of events (Lau and Woodman, 1995, p. 539)”.
To the extent that the inference dimension enables an employee to make such predictions he or she knows what to expect of change. Put differently, is certain about change through inferences. In the second section of this chapter the relevance of the inference dimension with respect to perceived uncertainty is discussed in more detail.
In addition, in making predictions about change employees base themselves on their knowledge framework – causal attributions (Lau and Woodman, 1995). Therefore, communicating about change related matters makes that employees know what to expect of change.
The last dimension is the goal congruence1 dimension which allows an employee to evaluate the meaning and significance of change (Lau & Woodman, 2005). The goal congruence refers to an employees’ evaluation as to whether his or her goals are congruent with the outcome of the change (Liu & Perrewé, 2005). These goals include both personal goals and goals the employee holds for the organization (Liu & Perrewé, 2005). Therefore, employees evaluate the change’s outcome for the organization and for themselves (Oreg at al., 2010); i.e. evaluate the change outcome with respect to both organizational and personal goals. In the following the relevance of the goal congruence dimension with respect to the cognitive reaction is discussed in more detail.
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The cognitive reaction associated to the intentional reaction: Beliefs about the change outcome.
The goal congruence dimension is reflected in the employee’s cognitive reaction toward change – beliefs about the change outcome. A distinction is made between two change beliefs, namely; appropriateness and valence. Appropriateness refers to the extent an employee perceives the change outcome as organizationally beneficial. Whereas valence refers to the extent an employee perceives the change outcome as personally beneficial. The key point about these beliefs is that it entails definition of causal attributions, which includes meaning and significance (Lau & Woodman, 1995).
According to Dibella (2007) these beliefs refer to a certain favor or disfavor regarding the change outcome and are the key in deciding whether to support or resist change. An employee is more apt to support change when having positive change beliefs and vice versa.
Therefore it is hypothesized that the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence are:
H2a: positively associated to supportive intentions. H2b: negatively associated to resistance intentions.
Before, elaborating on the association between the cognitive and emotional reaction, firstly the association between the cognitive perspective and the emotional reaction, with reference to the theory of cognitive appraisal, is elaborated.
The cognitive perspective associated to the emotional reaction: The theory of cognitive appraisal. The core of the theory of cognitive appraisal is the recognition that cognitions are important antecedents of emotions (Smith et al., 1993). In this regard, it is important to note that all three dimensions of a change schema are considered cognitions.
Emotional reactions are elicited by appraisal: “a universal processes in which people constantly
evaluate the (meaning and) significance of what is happening for their personal wellbeing” (Lazarus,
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Given that the goal congruence is reflected in the cognitive reaction toward change, it is the definition of causal attributions, which includes meaning and significance, that make employees react emotionally toward change. Furthermore, causal attributions are relevant to emotional reaction because it contributes to the knowledge employees evaluate in order to make sense of change, however doesn’t elicit emotion as long it remains non-evaluative and fact oriented (Smith et al., 1993). Similarly, the inference dimension, indicative for perceived uncertainty, in this respect best understood as ‘not knowing’ or a lack of knowledge, is considered to be non-evaluative and fact oriented as well, and therewith doesn’t elicit emotion (Lazarus, 1991).
The cognitive reaction associated to the emotional reaction: Beliefs about the change outcome
Beliefs about the change appropriateness and valence differentiate the hedonic tone of the emotional reaction of the employees (Gretsch, 2011, p. 11). What determines whether an emotion is positive or negative, is the belief whether a change will be organizationally and or personally beneficial – i.e. consistent with organizational and or personal goals. Or, as argued by Roseman et al. (1990), evaluating an event as goal congruent elicits positive emotions and evaluating an event as goal incongruent elicits negative emotions. Moreover, what best accounts for the differentiation between pleasant (positive) and unpleasant (negative) emotions is the belief, whether an event improved things or made them worse (Roseman et al., 1996).
Therefore it is hypothesized that beliefs about change appropriateness and valence are:
H2c: positively associated to positive emotional reactions. H2d: negatively associated to negative emotional reactions.
Antecedents of attitude toward change
15 Perceived uncertainty
Perceived uncertainty is distinguished as antecedent of the cognitive and emotional reaction toward change and refers to the employees’ perceived inability to predict the outcome of the change for him or herself. This section elaborates on perceived uncertainty in itself and in association to the cognitive and emotional reaction toward change.
“Change involves going from the known to the unknown” (Bovey & Hede, Resistance to organizational change: the role of cognitive and affective processes, 2001a, p. 372). Therefore, it is of no surprise that those who are affected by organizational change, the employees, to a greater or lesser extent, experience uncertainty. Employees might experience uncertainty “when details of situations are
ambiguous, complex, unpredictable, or probabilistic; when information is unavailable or inconsistent”
(Brashers, 2001, p. 478). Employees perceive to be uncertain about change when they aren’t ‘knowledgeable’ about what has happened, what is going on and what will happen next.
Perceived uncertainty associated to the emotional reaction
Perceived uncertainty is associated to different emotional reactions. Hope and fear are emotions consistently found to be associated to a sense of uncertainty about situations (Tiedens & Linton, 2001).
Most argued in this regard is that uncertainty is associated to fear (anxiety). This is because uncertainty is considered to be an ‘aversive state’ which is detrimental for personal well-being (Bordia et al., 2004). In which the aversive state is indicative for the prospect of unfavorable change. However, it is has also been argued that uncertainty may provide a sense of hope (Brashers, 2001). Therefore, perceived uncertainty might not be solely an aversive state, but instead employees may perceive uncertainty positively in a certain context (Brashers, 2001). Put differently, at times perceived uncertainty can be reassuring since it leaves room for hope (Lazarus, 1991). Therefore, uncertainty can be an aversive state, but it can also be an ‘attractive state’ indicative for the prospect of favorable change.
Therefore it is hypothesized that perceived uncertainty is:
H3a: positively associated to hope and fear.
Perceived uncertainty associated to the cognitive reaction
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Given that beliefs about the change appropriateness and valence differentiate the hedonic tone of the emotional reaction, with respect to perceived uncertainty differentiates hope and fear, it is therefore hypothesized that perceived uncertainty is:
H3b: positively associated to appropriateness and valence when feeling hopeful about change.
H3c: negatively associated to appropriateness and valence when feeling fearful about change.
Perceived usefulness of information
The perceived usefulness of information is distinguished as an antecedent of perceived uncertainty and the cognitive reaction toward change. It refers to the extent an employee perceives the official information about a change event as useful. This section elaborates on the perceived usefulness of information in itself and in association to perceived uncertainty and the cognitive reaction toward change.
Providing information through communicating about change is fundamental for its success (Schweiger & DeNisi, 1991). This is especially true when considering that organizations only change through their employees. Through communication employees become knowledgeable about change, they are informed about organizational matters like the reasons for change, the implementation process, the expected outcomes, and about personal matters regarding their position and future role in and after the change (Bordia et al., 2004 and Miller et al., 1994).
Perceived usefulness of information associated to the cognitive reaction
The information provided about these change related matters helps employees to develop a representation of, or understanding of, the change (Bordia et al., 2004). Furthermore, to the extent employees perceive the information as useful (e.g. timely, accurate and informative) they evaluate change more positively (Wanberg & Banas, 2000). I.e. information perceived to be useful may provide the rationales and incentives to support change (Miller et al., 1994). In general, information about change is framed positively, given that change is designed to be beneficial for both the organization and its employees (Gretsch, 2011). To the extent that employees consider information useful, or acceptable, they form (more) positive beliefs about change.
Therefore it is hypothesized that the perceived usefulness of information is:
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Perceived usefulness of information associated to perceived uncertainty
When organizational members don’t become knowledgeable about change, change may be surrounded by uncertainty. I.e. information can decrease the perceived uncertainty when it allows an employee to form a well-developed representation or understanding of the change (Brashers, 2001). Moreover, not so much the mere provision of information but the perceived usefulness of information reduces uncertainty about change (Allen et al., 2007). Useful information communicates to the employees about the expected outcome of change, by predicting the change outcome for the organization and the employee, and thus may be helpful in reducing perceived uncertainty (Miller at al., 1994). In other words, to the extent that there is a lack of perceived usefulness of information, employees could feel unable to foresee the change outcome and therefore feel uncertain about change.
Therefore it is hypothesized that the perceived usefulness of information is:
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Elaborated model
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Research methods
The organization under study is the Netherlands Police Agency. In order to fully comprehend the changes at the Netherlands Police Agency a description of the context in which the Agency is undergoing its change is required. Moreover, the changes at the Agency take place in the context of a revision of the national police system – the enactment of the Police Act 2012.
National Police
The Police Act 2012 replaces the Police Act 1993while ensuring that the authority over the police and the core police task, as defined by the Police Act 1993, will remain unchanged (Kwartiermaker, Realisatieplan Nationale Politie, 2012).
Art. 2, Police Act 1993:
‘The police have the task, subordinate to the competent authority and in accordance with the applicable rules of law, of ensuring effective law enforcement and rendering assistance to those who need it’.
Moreover, the Police Act 2012 is designed to establish one public corporation, i.e. one national police organization – the so-called National Police (De Nationale Politie) (Cachet & Marks, 2009). The aim of the National police is better performance of its core task; i.e. it aims to, better than at present, contribute to a safer Netherlands. In addition, as such, the establishment of the National Police is not an end by itself but a means to more efficient, effective and better quality of policing (Opstelten, 2012).
The new public corporation, the National Police, exists of 10 regional police forces, the Netherlands Police Agency (De Landelijkeenheid) and the Police Service Center (Politiedienstencentrum) headed by one Chief of Police. This is a substantial restructuring considering the pre-change situation, in which the national police system was organized in 26 autonomous forces each headed by one force manager; 25 regional police forces and the National Police Services Agency (KLPD).
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Politie, 2012). This phase mainly involves realizing change in the current practices and behavior, the culture and the form and content of leadership (Kwartiermaker, Realisatieplan Nationale Politie, 2012).
At the time of the study the implementation of the Landelijk Functiehuis Nationale Politie (LFNP) was the main change activity under the attention of the organization and its employees. The implementation of the LFNP is basically a personal restructuring. The LFNP consists of the description of 92 functions and each employee of the National Police has to be formally assigned to one of these functions. Moreover, in the pre-change situation the Dutch Police knew as much as approximately 16000 functions because each corps described their own functions. Thus, each employee of the National Police that is assigned to one of the 16000 functions must be placed in the new national function structure. As such, at the time of this study the employees of the National Police were awaiting the matching decision (het matchingsbesluit). That is, they were awaiting to which of the 92 functions of the LFNP their current function will be matched. This matching procedure precedes the final placing or the actual personal restructuring.
The Netherlands Police Agency
The Netherlands Police Agency, the former National Police Services Agency (KLPD), is the national operational unit of the Dutch Police (Kwartiermaker, Realisatieplan Nationale Politie, 2012). With a total strength of 4890 fulltime-equivalents (fte), of which 4634 fte operational strength and 256 fte non-operational strength, the agency has about 6700 employees. The core task of the agency is the execution of national and specialist policing, and in addition the agency works with regional units in providing high quality operational support. The agency operates from locations in the Netherlands and abroad and has access to specialist people (manpower), resources and expertise (Kwartiermaker, Realisatieplan Nationale Politie, 2012).
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in which the Chief of Police has the final responsibility. In the pre-change situation the National Police Service Agency consisted of nine operational services, five management services and two staff services each headed by one chief. The responsibility for the overall policing delivered by the agency was in hands of the management; consisting of a chief constable, three assistant chief constables and the heads of the in total 16 services.
With regard to the core task of the agency a distinction is made between autonomous and supportive tasks (Kwartiermaker, Inrichtingsplan Nationale Politie , 2012). The autonomous tasks mainly concern severe crime, terrorism, safety and security, and infrastructure. In addition, the agency acts as single point of contact for international partners with respect to joint operations, exchange of information and legal assistance. The autonomous tasks are performed by the following services: DLR, DB&B and Dienst Infrastructure. The supportive tasks mainly concern specialized recherché support, specialized forensic support, intelligence and information, international cooperation, intervention, air support, operational support and national operational coordination. The supportive tasks are performed by the following services: DLOS, DLIO, DSI, and DLOC. The four services provide support for or work in line with operations initiated by autonomous services of the national or regional agencies. For the sake of efficiency, coherence and the conflicting desire for both interdependence en dependence the supportive tasks are integral organized.
Data collection
The variables distinguished in the hypothesizes were measured via a questionnaire built up with questions and statements to be answered on a predetermined scale. As such, the questionnaire was prepared by making use of or modifying existing measures.
Measures
The perceived usefulness of information was measured by the quality of change communication scale. The scale combined the measures of Miller at al. (1994) and Bordia et al. (2004) and consisted of a total of 11 items. One item was dropped from the scale because it showed low (>0.40) inter-item correlation. The remaining 10 items appeared internal consistent (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.908).
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The perceived uncertainty was measured by an uncertainty scale. The total of 29 items were, firstly, modified items from change related uncertainty measures (18 items) – i.e. the work of Ashford et al (1989), Bordia et al (2004), Schweiger and Denisi (1991) and Hellgren at al. (1999), and secondly, were items based on the Inrichtingsplan Nationale Politie (Kwartiermaker, 2012) (11 items). The total 29 items appeared internal consistent (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.961). It was believed necessary to modify and develop the uncertainty scale in this way in order to relate to the specific context of the National Police and in particular the implementation of the LFNP.
Participants were asked to indicate how uncertain they were regarding to items on the personal effects of change on a 7-point scale (1 = to a very small extent to 7 = to a very great extent). A typical item used was: to what extent are you uncertain about whether there is a change in your current position (function) in the organization.
The employee’s cognitive reaction toward change is his or her beliefs about the change outcome, namely: appropriateness and valence. Appropriateness was measured by 5 items from the Organizational Change Recipients’ Beliefs Scale from Armenakis et al. (2007). Participants were asked to respond to statements on the extent to which they perceive the change event as organizationally beneficial on a 5-point scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree). Typical items used were: I believe the change will have a favorable effect on our operations and the change will prove to be best for our situation. The 5 items appeared internal consistent (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.891).
Valence was measured by items from the Organizational Change Recipients’ Beliefs Scale from Armenakis et al. (2007) and 6 items from the Readiness for Organizational Change Scale from Holt et al. (2007). One item was dropped because it showed low (>0.40) inter-item correlation. Participants were asked to respond to statements on the extent to which they perceive the change event as personally beneficial on a 5-point scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree). Typical items used were: I will benefit from the change and the proposed change will give me new career opportunities. The remaining 10 items appeared internal consistent (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.880).
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The participants were asked to indicate to what extent they experienced each of the 6 emotions on a 7-point scale (1 = to a very small extent to 7 = to a very great extent). The emotions were referred to by specific adjectives and as such each emotional reaction was measured by a number or items. The emotional reaction hope (4 items, Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.891) was measured by the items optimistic, encouraged, hopeful and confident, fear (4 items, Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.907) was measured by the items scared, afraid, panicky and anxious, joy and excitement (9 items, Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.933) were measured by the items happy, pleased, joyful, relieved, satisfied and proud, and excited, thrilled and enthusiastic, anger (5 items, Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.902) was measured by the items frustrated, angry, irritated, disappointed and annoyed, and finally sadness (7 items, Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.927) was measured by the items depressed, sad, miserable, regretful, stupid, guilty, and angry at self. From the Cronbach’s alpha scores it appears that the emotional reaction measures is internal consistent.
The employee’s intentional reaction toward change was measured by the behavioral intention scale of Bovey and Hede (2001a, 2001b). The scale measures an employee’s intention to engage in supportive and resistance behavior toward the change (Bovey and Hede, 2001). Support was measured by 8 items, of which the items to support, and to agree with the organizational change are typical. Resistance was measured by 12 items, of which the items to oppose, and to ignore the organizational change are typical.
Participants were asked to indicate to what extent they experienced these and similar intentions on a 7-point scale (1 = a very small extent to 7 = a very great extent). Respectively 2 items for support and 3 items for resistance were dropped because these showed low (>0.40) inter-item correlation. The remaining 6 items for support and 9 items for resistance appeared internal consistent (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.909 and 0.915).
Before the questionnaire was distributed to the participants it was subjected to a pre-test. Firstly, the translation of the items was tested by having the into Dutch translated items, which were presented in random order, matched with the English items. This matching procedure was carried out by two fellow, both excelling, students. In addition, both students provided feedback on the actual translations. Secondly, a paper version of the questionnaire was completed by six employees of the Netherlands Police Agency and they were asked to provide feedback on both content and practical aspects of the questionnaire. The pre-test didn’t result in any changes in the design of the questionnaire.
Participants
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employees on the list still worked at the Agency. This ensured that the selected participants are working two years or more at the agency. The participants received the questionnaire by mail on the work related email address. In this way, the participants were given the opportunity to complete the questionnaire at their own convenience. Moreover, the participants were approached in the name of the researcher specifying that both the management and the works council of the Agency endorsed the purpose of the research and as such provided their facilitative support. Participation was voluntary and under the condition of anonymity and confidentiality. Following the first request to participate, on 10-04-2013, 45 participants completed the questionnaire; a repeated request, on 29-04-2013, resulted in another 53 participants completing the questionnaire. As a result 98 completed questionnaires were collected of which 94 were included in the analysis. Four completed questionnaires were dropped from the analysis because they didn’t show any dispersion and of those four, two included comments that suggested the questionnaires were not effortful and seriously completed.
Analysis
In order to test for the associations as assumed in the theory section within the set of measured variables several analyses were conducted – i.e. several regression analyses. Moreover, regression is a prediction statistic: by means of regression it is tested whether the criterion (dependent variable) can be predicted on the basis of one or multiple predictor(s) (independent variable(s)) (Harlow, 2005).
Firstly, hypothesize 4a, 4b and 3b, 3c were tested by linear regression. With respect to hypothesize 3b and 3c there was tested for a moderating effect of hope and fear on the association between perceived uncertainty, and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence. Therefore, the quantitative variables hope and fear were simplified to qualitative variables. Both moderators hope and fear were categorized in three levels, namely: low, moderate and high. This was done by taking the 31 lowest and highest scores for hope (fear) in the low and high group and by taking the remaining 32 scores for the moderate group.
Secondly, hypothesize 2c, 2d and 3a were tested simultaneously by multiple regression, and thirdly, hypothesize 1a, 1b and 2a, 2b were tested simultaneously by multiple regression. With respect to these hypothesizes there was tested for a mediating effect of the emotional reaction on the association between on the one hand perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, and on the other the intentional reaction.
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data should meet these assumptions (Harlow, 2005). Moreover, “when these assumptions are not met the
results may not be trustworthy, resulting in a Type 1 or Type 2 error, or over- or under-estimation of significance or effect size(s)” (Osborne and Waters, 2002, p. 1).
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Results
In table 1 the mean score, the standard deviation and the correlations per variable are presented. As noted variables 1, 3 and 4 were measured on a 1-5 Likert-scale and variables 2, 5-12 were measured on a 1-7 Likert-scale.
The mean scores show values around the middle of the minimum and maximum score, the variables fear, sadness and resistance deviate from such a finding. These variables show a mean score of a full point or more below the middle of the minimum and maximum score. From the mean score of the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, it shows that the participants evaluate the change as more beneficial for the organization than for themselves. Lastly, from the mean scores of support and resistance it seems that the participants are more tending to support the change than to resist it.
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relation between perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, and the intentional reactions. Furthermore, three additional conditions must hold. In the context of this study, these conditions are as follows, a) perceived uncertainty is positively associated to the emotional reaction hope and fear, the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence are positively associated to the emotional reaction hope and joy/excitement, and negatively associated to the emotional reaction fear, anger and sadness, b) the positive (negative) emotional reaction are positive associated to the intentional reaction support (resistance), and c) the association between perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, and the intentional reaction is not significant when controlling for the emotional reaction.
Perceived usefulness of information – Results of regression analysis for hypothesizes 4a and 4b. Hypothesis 4a and 4b posited that the perceived usefulness of information would be negatively associated to perceived uncertainty and positively associated to the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence. The results of regression analysis testing these hypothesizes are presented in table 2 below.
In association to uncertainty, the perceived usefulness of information accounted for 6% (p<0.05) of the variance with a Beta value of -.240 (p<0.05). Therefore hypothesize 4a is supported. In addition, in association to the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, communication accounted for 30% (p<0.01) and 38% (p<0.01) of the variance for respectively appropriateness and valence with Beta values of 0.543 (p<0.01) and 0.616 (p<0.01). Therefore, hypothesize 4b is supported.
Perceived uncertainty – Results of regression analysis for hypothesizes 2c and 2d.
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In association to the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence under the condition of low hope, perceived uncertainty accounted for 22.5 % (p<0.01) and 19.3% (p<0.01) of the variance for respectively appropriateness and valence with Beta values of -.474 (p<0.01) and -.439 (p<0.05). In addition, under the condition of moderate and high hope, the perceived uncertainty accounted for an insignificant amount of variance. Therefore hypothesize 3b is rejected.
Hypothesize 3c posited that perceived uncertainty would be negatively associated to beliefs about change appropriateness and valence when feeling fearful about change. The result of regression analysis testing this hypothesizes is presented in table 4.
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Perceived uncertainty and beliefs about change appropriateness and valence – Results of regression analysis for hypothesizes 3a and 2c, 2d.
Hypothesize 3a posited that perceived uncertainty would positively be associated to the emotional reaction hope and fear. Concurrently, hypothesis 2c and 2d posited that the change beliefs appropriateness and valence would be positively associated to the emotional reaction hope and joy/excitement and would be negatively associated to the emotional reaction fear, anger and sadness.
In association to hope, perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence accounted for 64% (p<0.01) of the variance along with a Beta of -.109 (p>0.05, n.s.) for perceived uncertainty, and a Beta of 0.260 (p<0.05) and 0.538 (p<0.01) for respectively appropriateness and valence. Therefore, hypothesis 3a is rejected and hypothesis 2c is supported.
In association to fear, perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence accounted for 42% (p<0.01) of the variance along with a Beta of 0.667 (p<0.01) for perceived uncertainty, and a Beta of -.216 (p>0.05, n.s.) and -.321 (p<0.05) for respectively appropriateness and valence. Therefore, hypothesis 3a is supported and hypothesis 2d is partially supported – i.e. hypothesize 2d solely holds for the change belief valence.
In association to joy/excitement, perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence accounted for 58% (p<0.01) of the variance along with a Beta of 0.046 (p>0.05, n.s.) for perceived uncertainty, and a Beta of 0.226 (p<0.05) and 0.585 (p<0.01) for respectively appropriateness and valence. Therefore, hypothesis 2c is supported.
In association to anger, perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence accounted for 49% (p<0.01) of the variance along with a Beta of 0.177 (p<0.05) for perceived uncertainty, and a Beta of -.084 (p>0.05, n.s.) and -.551 (p<0.01) for respectively appropriateness and valence. Therefore, hypothesis 2d is partially supported – i.e. hypothesize 2d solely holds for the change belief valence.
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Perceived usefulness of information, perceived uncertainty, beliefs about change appropriateness and valence and emotional reaction – Results of regression analysis for hypothesizes 1a and 1b, and 2a and 2b.
Hypothesize 1a and 1b posited that the positive emotional reactions would be positively associated to the intentional reaction to support and the negative emotional reactions to the intentional reaction to resist. Concurrently it is assumed that the emotional reactions, both positive and negative, would be mediating beliefs about change appropriateness and valance, and of the emotional reactions hope and fear would be mediating perceived uncertainty.
Intentional reaction: Support
With regard to the first condition of mediation it shows that perceived uncertainty is directly associated to the intentional reaction to support. This shows from table 6; model 1 with a Beta value of -.238 (p>0.01) for perceived uncertainty. In order to be able to determine whether there is a mediating effect of the emotional reaction hope on perceived uncertainty the three additional conditions under which mediations holds are analyzed.
First, condition a) is not satisfied according the Beta value in table 3 (see hope), although table 1 shows a significant negative correlation. Second, condition b) is partially satisfied according the significant positive correlations in table 1 and the Beta values in table 6 model 2. The condition only holds for hope, given the Beta value in table 6 model 3 only hope is associated to the intentional reaction to support. And third, condition c) is satisfied according the Beta value in table 6 model 4, the association between perceived uncertainty and the intentional reaction to support isn’t significant as shows from the Beta value -.029 (p>0.05).
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model 2 with a Beta value of 0.349 (p<0.01) and 0.490 (p<0.01) for respectively appropriateness and valence. In order to be able to determine whether there is a mediating effect of the emotional reaction hope and joy/excitement on the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence the three additional conditions under which mediations holds are analyzed.
32 Intentional reaction: Resistance
With regard to the first condition of mediation it shows that the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence aren’t directly associated to the intentional reaction to resist. This shows from table 7; model 2 with a Beta of -.258 (p>0.05, n.s.) and -.182 (p>0.05, n.s.) for both change beliefs appropriateness and valence. Therefore, negative emotions can’t be assumed to mediate the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence.
In addition, perceived uncertainty is directly associated to the intentional reaction to resist; see table 7 model 1 with a Beta of 0.325 (p<0.01) for perceived uncertainty. In order to be able to determine whether there is a mediating effect of the negative emotional reaction fear on perceived uncertainty, three additional conditions under which mediations holds are analyzed.
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Discussion
In the context of the restructuring of the Dutch policing system, studied at the Netherlands Police Agency, the results show some interesting findings and provide (partial) support for the hypothesizes drafted in the theory section. This as a result of an attitude approach that can be best described as a fusion of the two attitude approaches: the tripartite conception of attitude toward change and the theory of planned behavior while including perceived usefulness of information and perceived uncertainty.
However, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution, especially with regard to drawing conclusions in terms of causal relations. Especially when considering this study to be a cross-sectional study. Nevertheless the results show distinctive patterns and therefore it is believed that the results can be discussed and interpreted.
Perceived usefulness of information –Perceived uncertainty and beliefs about change appropriateness and valence
In association to perceived uncertainty, the perceived usefulness of information predicted 6.8% of the variance and showed to be a significant predictor (Beta= -.240, p<0.05). This finding confirms previously found results by Schweiger and Denisi (1991) who found that communication could reduce perceived uncertainty and helps employees to handle or deal with perceived uncertainty. Therefore, informing employees about change related matters, in a way that they that they perceive to be useful, reduces perceived uncertainty. Otherwise, communication should be relevant to the employees, that is, address those things that concern the employees.
In association to the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, the perceived usefulness of information predicted 29.5 % and 37.9% of the variance for respectively appropriateness and valance and is a significant predictor of both these change beliefs with Beta values of 0.543 (p<0.01) and 0.616 (p<0.01). This finding confirms previously found results by Schweiger and DeNisi (1991) and Wanberg and Banas (2000) who found that useful information about change made employees more open to change and increases change acceptance. Therefore, information perceived as useful seems to make employees form (more) positive beliefs about change. In other words, may provide the rational for change and make the employees realize that the change advances organizational and or personal goals.
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Perceived uncertainty – Beliefs about change appropriateness and valence
In association to the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, under the condition of low hope, perceived uncertainty accounted for 22.5 % (p<0.01) and 19.3% (p<0.01) of the variance for respectively appropriateness and valence, with Beta values of -.474 (p<0.01) and -.439 (p<0.01). In addition, under the condition of high fear, perceived uncertainty accounted for 27.1 % (p<0.01) and 30.1% (p<0.01) of the variance for respectively appropriateness and valence, with Beta values of -.520 (p<0.01) and -.549 (p<0.01).
It does not appear that uncertainty can be perceived as both a threat and opportunity. That is, perceived uncertainty only significantly predicts more negative change beliefs under the condition of high fear and low hope. Therefore, uncertainty is only perceived as a threat.
Perceived uncertainty and beliefs about change appropriateness and valence – The emotional reaction In association to the emotional reaction, perceived uncertainty and the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence, explained variance ranging from 33% to 64.2%. It is interesting to note that not only per emotional reaction but also between positive and negative emotional reactions there is a noticeable difference in explained variance.
The difference in explained variance per emotional reaction to some extend was expected. I.e. it was expected that perceived uncertainty and the both change beliefs appropriateness and valence would explain a considerable amount of variance of the emotional reactions but not for all in to same extent.
Furthermore, the difference in explained variance between positive and negative emotional reactions was surprising; it was not expected that perceived uncertainty and the change beliefs appropriateness and valence would expose this difference. Some clarification on this finding follows from an argument of Barsade and Gibson (2001): conclusions about the meaning of negative emotions in organizational life are a complex matter, assumingly more complex than conclusions about the meaning of positive emotions.
Moreover, illustrative for the ‘complexity’ of the meaning of emotions, in a related study of Gretsch (2011), it was found that the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence were more significantly related to positive emotional reactions in comparison to negative emotional reactions. Which makes clear that the meaning of positive emotional reactions is better understood than the meaning of negative emotional reactions, in terms of these change beliefs.
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emotional reactions, of which valence is the most strong predictor considering the Beta values and only the change belief valence predicts negative emotional reactions.
With respect to positive emotional reactions this finding is as expected and confirms previously found results. Change that advances organizational and personal goals is associated to positive emotional reactions. Or, as Roseman (1990) puts it, situations that are goal congruent elicit positive emotions. With respect to negative emotional reactions this finding only partially as expected. That is, it was expected that not only the change belief valence nut the change belief appropriateness as well, would predict negative emotional reactions.
This suggests that in employees their positive and negative emotional reaction personal goals overshadow organizational goals. Put differently, employees become more emotional from personal concerns than of organizational issues.
Furthermore, it was found that the perceived uncertainty predicts negative emotional reactions and doesn’t predict positive emotional reactions. With respect to the latter, it was expected that perceived uncertainty in a certain context may be perceived positively – provides a sense of hope. However the findings show that perceived uncertainty doesn’t significantly predict hope. Therefore, it can be argued that the employees did not remain hopeful in the face of uncertain conditions. This, while hope especially in face of despairing conditions, may be a major coping resource (Lazarus, 1991). With respect to the former, it was expected that perceived uncertainty is associated to the emotional reaction of fear and not to the emotional reactions of anger and sadness. This doesn’t show from the results; perceived uncertainty predicts the emotional reactions fear, anger and sadness. In light of the argument by Barsade and Gibson (2001) interpretation of this finding may be a precarious matter or at best it would be the better ‘guesswork’.
Returning to the inclusion of perceived uncertainty in the attitude approach, the inclusion seems acceptable. Perceived uncertainty captures a significant amount of variance in negative emotional reactions. So, therewith perceived uncertainty provides a broader perspective for understanding reactions toward change.
Perceived usefulness of information, perceived uncertainty, beliefs about change appropriateness and valence and positive emotional reactions – Intentional reactions
Intentional reaction: Support
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and of the positive emotional reactions, only hope (Beta= 0.614, p<0.01) are significant independent predictors of the intentional reaction to support.
It is interesting to note that of the change beliefs appropriateness is and valence is not, an independent significant predictor of supportive intentions. This, while according to Dibella (2007) both change beliefs are believed to be key in deciding whether to support change. An explanation for this might be found in the mean scores of beliefs about change appropriateness and valence. The means show that employees are more positive about, less negative about, the change outcome on the organizational level than on the personal level. Such a particular reaction is not unusual; according to Piderit (2000) ambivalence within a dimension of attitude toward change is conceivable. Somewhat similar, Lines (2005) asserts that the attitude toward change can be positive when evaluated from an organization-wide perspective and negative when evaluated from a personal perspective and vice versa. This may suggest that employees intend to support change given that the change is likely to advance organizational goals.
Furthermore, the positive emotional reaction hope, shows to mediate the association between the change belief valence and supportive intentions. It seems that, employees retain hopeful regarding a personal beneficial change outcome. In addition, the positive emotional reactions joy and excitement are found not be associated to the intentional reaction to support.
Hence, of the cognitive reaction, only the change belief appropriateness, and, of the positive emotional reactions, only hope contributes to the understanding of the intentional reaction to support change.
Intentional reaction: Resistance
In association to resistance intentions, the variables all together explained 40.5% of the variance and perceived uncertainty appeared to be the only significant predictor (Beta= 0.206, p<0.05).
What stands out is the amount of variance explained which is considerably lower than for the intentional reaction to support. The adopted approach accounts for considerably less variation in resistance intentions. This may suggest that when it comes to intending to resist change, employees, so to speak, were ‘moved’ less or by other things besides perceived usefulness of information, perceived uncertainty and their beliefs about change appropriateness and emotional reactions.
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Moreover, at time of this study employees of the Netherlands Police Agency were awaiting the
matching decision, which perhaps can be best understood as the transition into the unknown
(Realisatieplan, 2012). Therefore, this finding is considered to be characteristic for the change situation at the Netherlands Police Agency.
Furthermore, expanding on this finding, it is interesting to note that the beliefs about change appropriateness and valence and the negative emotional reactions are not associated to the intentional reaction to resist. This suggests that employees don’t decide to resist change because of how they think and feel about change.
A possible explanation for this might be found in the following: the evaluation of organizational and or personal goal congruence of change requires considerable information processing (Ford et al., 2008) and this seems particularly difficult when change is surrounded by uncertainty. Given that one of the reasons why employees are uncertain about change is because information is simply unavailable. However, employees can make decision despite perceived uncertainty, either from incomplete reasoning or evidence (Brashers, 2001).
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