• No results found

– December 5, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET November 29

N/A
N/A
Info
Downloaden
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Share "– December 5, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET November 29"

Copied!
2
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Download het nu ( 2 pagina )

Hele tekst

(1)

Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET

November 29 – December 5, 2012

Little to no rainfall observed throughout the Greater Horn during the last week has strengthened mid- season moisture deficits in portions of Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.

1) The return of below-average rainfall during the last week has re-strengthened moisture deficits following a mid-season dry spell that occurred in early November. With a shortened recovery period in the next several weeks, this could result in a deterioration of pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions, and possible crop yield reductions by the end of season throughout parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and eastern Tanzania.

2) Combined with a poor rainfall performance from last year, low and poorly distributed rainfall in November has resulted in early season dryness throughout parts of Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, and the Free State, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, and North West States of South Africa. The prolonged absence of moisture stemming from the last rainy season may lead to a significant reduction in water availability, livestock losses, and may negatively affect crop production.

(2)

Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards outlook process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424. Questions about the USAID FEWSNET activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for FEWSNET, 1-202-219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.

Anomalous dryness returns in East Africa.

During the last observation period, there was a considerable reduction in precipitation over many local areas in the Greater Horn. The heaviest precipitation accumulations in the last seven days were localized, as portions of the western SNNP and Gambella region of Ethiopia, and the coast province of southeastern Kenya received rainfall amounts in excess of 50mm. In many other pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of Kenya and Somalia, precipitation was virtually absent during the last week with rainfall amounts less than 10mm (Figure 1).

Further south, a more seasonable distribution of heavy precipitation was observed across portions of western Tanzania, however light to moderate rainfall amounts were received in the eastern and coastal provinces of the country.

Following a partial recovery of seasonal (Oct-Dec) rainfall across many parts of Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya in mid- November, below-average rainfall during the last week has re- strengthened seasonal moisture deficits in the region. Analysis of satellite rainfall anomaly estimates over the last 30 days depicts the mid-season cessation of rainfall, with the greatest negative rainfall anomalies (>50mm) for many pastoral parts of southern Somalia, as well as northern and eastern Kenya (Figure 2). Both the timing and persistence of poor November rainfall is likely to lead to deteriorating ground conditions, and possible livestock losses and crop reductions by the end of season.

For the upcoming outlook period, an increase in rainfall is expected in the region; however it is becoming less likely that moisture deficits will be completely mitigated before the end of the season.

Dryness worsens in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

Low and poorly distributed rainfall during the last month has led to the development of early season moisture deficits throughout many areas in southern Africa. With more areas now beginning to experience less than half of their normal rainfall accumulation since October, this has exacerbated ground conditions in areas where rainfall was also below average during last year’s monsoon season. The latest NDVI anomaly analysis suggest deteriorating vegetation conditions are not limited to South Africa, but are also occurring throughout many parts of Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique (Figure 3). A prolonged absence of moisture stemming from last season may lead to a significant reduction in water availability, livestock losses, and negatively affect crop production.

For the next seven days, much of South Africa, Zimbabwe and portions of Mozambique are expecting to receive below-average amounts of rainfall.

Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Valid: November 18th – November 24th, 2012

Figure 1: NOAA/CPC

Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Valid: October 26th – November 24th, 2012

Figure 2: NOAA/CPC

NDVI Anomaly

Valid: As of the 2nd dekad of November, 2012

Figure 3: USGS/EROS

Referenties

Download het nu ( PDF - 2 pagina - 344.74 KB )

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

– January 4, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET December 29, 2011

 Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue over southern Africa and is expected to help relieve dryness over the dry portions of the region; but it also increases the risk for

– February 29, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET February 23

 Tropical Cyclone Giovanna brushed past southern Madagascar causing heavy rains in the region. 1) Below-average rains since the beginning of 2012 has led to growing

– Apr 4, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET March 29

 Reduced rainfall amounts have been observed in central southern Africa during the past week.  A short-term dryness has settled in eastern Africa due to a delay in the onset

– April 11, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET April 5

 Below average rainfall continues over much of the Greater Horn of Africa.  Enhanced rains bring some short-term relief for many drought affected areas of southern Africa. 1) The

– July 11, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET July 5

 Widespread, above-average weekly rains were observed across West Africa. 1) The five-week delay in the onset of the March-May seasonal rainfall had significantly

– August 29, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET August 23

 Wet conditions prevail across West Africa and eastern Africa.  Hatching eggs and low-density locusts increase the potential for locust outbreak over many regions. 1) Heavy rains

– September 5, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET August 30

 Torrential rains persist, potentially exacerbating Cholera outbreak across West Africa.  Heavy rains worsen flooding conditions in eastern Africa.  Hatching eggs and

– November 7, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET November 1

 Tropical Storm Murjan brings heavy rains and flash flooding to northern Somalia.  Flooding continues across portions of Nigeria and Ghana as heavy rains impact the region. 1)