Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook December 31, 2015 – January 6, 2016
Drought has led to delayed planting and livestock deaths over Southern Africa.
Reduced rain is expected over Eastern Africa during the next outlook period.
1) Drought conditions have affected many countries of Southern Africa, including Angola, South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Mozambique due to a delayed start and erratic distribution of rainfall since the start of the season. Exacerbated by a poor performance during the previous season, the deficient rain has already significantly reduced water availability, leading to livestock deaths and poor ground conditions over many areas.
2) Abundant rain during the past three weeks has led to localized flooding and rising river levels over areas of Antananarivo, central Madagascar. Heavy rain is expected to continue during the upcoming week, maintaining elevated risks for flooding and landslides over flood-prone and low-lying areas.
Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
Poor rains have negatively impacted Southern Africa.
Figure 1 indicates the departure of accumulated rainfall since October to present over Southern Africa from the long-term average. Insufficient rain, with large negative anomalies between 100-200 mm were observed over Angola, northeastern Namibia and northern Botswana, eastern and central South Africa, and localized areas of central Zimbabwe, and central Mozambique. The onset to the rainfall season was delayed, pushing planting further back over many areas.
Rainfall was also erratic as it was unevenly-distributed both in space and time. Exacerbated by an already-poor rainfall performance during the previous season, inconsistent rain has substantially reduced water availability and negatively impacted agricultural and pastoral activities over several areas of Southern Africa. Reports have indicated that South Africa has already declared drought status for five provinces. Livestock deaths were also reported in Masvingo Province of Zimbabwe due to drought. The continuation of drier than average conditions may lead to further reduction in planting areas and livestock deaths over many areas of the sub-region. During the past observation period, while heavy rain was observed in southwestern Angola, eastern Zambia, southern Tanzania, and northern Mozambique, light to locally moderate and below- average rain was recorded elsewhere. This has further increased thirty-day moisture deficits over eastern South Africa, Zimbabwe, and central Mozambique.
During the next outlook period, suppressed rain is forecast over a wide area of southern Africa, which will likely increase rainfall deficits and worsen dryness over the dry portions of South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique (Figure 2). In contrast, copious amounts of rain are expected to continue over central Madagascar. This increases the risks for flooding, landslides, and overflowing of rivers over many flood- prone and low-lying areas.
Above-average October-December rainfall season was observed in Eastern Africa.
An analysis of the cumulative rain since October has indicated above-average seasonal rain across much of Eastern Africa.
Moisture surpluses exceeding 100 mm were observed over many areas of the sub-region, including near the Lake Victoria, southern and east-central Kenya, and central Somalia (Figure 3). Heavy and above-average rain resulted in flooding and fatalities over many areas of Kenya during the past few weeks.
During the past week, reduced rain was mostly observed across the region. While locally moderate rain fell near the Lake Victoria and central Kenya, little to no rainfall was recorded elsewhere. This has helped relieve oversaturation over some local areas. For next week, as the October- December season is coming to an end, suppressed rain is forecast to continue, with little to no rainfall over the bimodal regions of northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Locally moderate rain is, however, possible in east-central Kenya.
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Valid: October 01 – December 29, 2015
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Valid: December 30, 2015 – January 06, 2016
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Valid: October 01 – December 29, 2015
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
