“A Path To The Autonomous Driving, Begins
with Chinese Consumers”
Combining Conjoint analysis and
Bass model to investigate the
future of autonomous vehicles in
China.
Student: Tiantian Wang
1st Supervisor：Dr. Keyvan Dehmamy
2nd Supervisor: Dr. Felix Eggers
3
Background
• China might become the biggest autopilot market by 2030
Literature Review
Innovation
Methodology
：Part I
Conjoint Analysis
Choice-Based conjoint analysis, without historical data
Bass Model
Fractional factorial, orthogonal design is used, three attributes with three levels.
How new technologies are adopted through the diffusion process.
Innovator (p): driven by innovativeness.
!
Imitator (q): driven by imitativeness
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Modeling
&Simulation
Multinomial logit model to
estimate preference estimates.
Methodology
：Part II
Chinese
Survey contains three parts: demographics + imitativeness/innovativeness questions + 9 choice sets, distributed in Chinese language.
Results: Part I
Brand nationality is widely recognized among Chinese consumers, over the price.
Female consumers are more price sensitive and brand-oriented.
Geographical differences: car brand is the most dominant factor in first-tier city. Price is most important in remote cities.
Product 3 represents the ideal product: BMW with price of 250,000 CNY in size of SUV. Product 1 will be available in
2020. 7
Price (exclude price)
Brands Car types
Foreign brands are more preferred over domestic brand, especially BMW. Bigger size of car is most preferred, hedonic needs.
Results: Part II
Males are more innovative than female consumers.
Product 1 (Baidu Apollo)’s potential market size is 3,090,000 units
whereas product 3 (BMW) is 16,800,000 units
Implications
Adapt to population distribution and emphasize on WOM
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Intense brand marketing in first/second -tier cities, especially foreign brands
Rural places are suitable for price promotion, domestic brand.
Limitations
Hypothetical Bias
No real product is displayed, textual description
01
Analogy Estimates
No historical sales data of p and q 02
Basic Bass Model
No marketing dynamic is included, e.g. actual price.
References
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Bass, F. M. (1969). A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management science, 15(5), 215-227.
Eggers, F., & Eggers, F. (2011). Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(1), 51-62.
Eggers, F., Sattler, H., Teichert, T., & Völckner, F. (2018). Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis. In C. Homburg, M. Klarmann, & A. Vomberg (Eds.), Handbook of Market Research Springer.
Louviere, J. J., Hensher, D. A., & Swait, J. D. (2000). Stated choice methods: analysis and applications. Cambridge university press.
