‘Are we ready?’

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‘Are we ready?’

Managing Supply Chain Preparedness in Slow onset disasters

Georgia Achamnou S3195562

Master Thesis for MSc Supply Chain Management (2017) University of Groningen

Supervisors: Kirstin Scholten & Carolien de Blok

ABSTRACT

Supply Chain Preparedness, the first phase of a disaster, is found to be very important, as it affects all the other phases of a disaster. However, Preparedness in slow onset disasters is not studied thoroughly by researchers. The purpose of this research is to identify the influencing factors that affect Preparedness of an organization in a slow onset disaster from a supply chain view. Twelve semi-structured interviews were conducted at a diverse range of NGOs that were active in the refugee crisis in Greece. The findings revealed the influencing factors of Preparedness in a slow onset disaster. Additionally, due to some specific factors that are known in a slow onset disaster in advance, the way these factors influence Preparedness in slow onset disasters was identified. To theory, this research contributes in bridging the gap that existed in the slow onset disasters and how their first phase is differentiated among the other Types of disasters. To practice, the insights help the organizations to be prepared for a slow onset disaster, by knowing in which factors their strategies can be based on, in order to decrease their costs and improve their services in helping the affected population.

Keywords: Preparedness, Slow onset disasters, Influencing Factors

Word count (excluding tables and figures): 11.637 words

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Disaster Preparedness can be recognized as the central element in reducing the negative impact of disasters worldwide (Kunz, Reiner and Gold, 2014): the better the preparation the more effective the response (van Wassenhove, 2006). Supply chain Preparedness is the first phase of disaster management, and can be defined as the development of systems, structures, and processes before a disaster strikes, through planning, designing, and training (Jahre, Pazirandeh and van Wassenhove , 2016) to supply and service the affected people in disasters (Van Wassenhove, 2006), with speed and efficiency (Day, Melnyk, Larson, Davis and Whybark, 2012). At the same time, the type and nature of the disaster can play a crucial role in the preparation strategy and change the activities that have to be made beforehand (Holguin-Veras, Jaller, van Wassenhove, Pérez and Wachtendorf, 2012). Slow onset disasters, which are a specific type of disaster, ‘tend to be forgotten and under-financed’ (van Wassenhove, 2006, p.480), though they account for about 97 percent of relief operations globally (Overstreet, Hall, Hanna and Kelly Rainer 2011, Kunz, 2012). As a result, the influencing factors of supply chain preparation strategies, in slow onset disasters have not been discovered or researched yet.

It is generally postulated that, due to high uncertainties in time, location or type, it is difficult to be prepared for a disaster in terms of assessing and forecasting the demand, being prepositioned, as well as by planning a pre-procurement and a transportation strategy (Afshar and Haghani, 2012; Jahre et al., 2016; Kovacs and Spens, 2007;

Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009). However, in slow onset disasters the majority of these uncertainties are known and a warning period before the disasters strike exists (Duran et al., 2011 and Rawls & Turnquist, 2010 in Kunz 2012; Kovacs and Spens, 2009). Though, in practice the exact opposite is revealed about slow onset disasters. A real life example is the drought in the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia &

Somalia) in 2011, where there was time to be prepared, as the disaster was forecasted 11 months before. After the drought, a food crisis took place, where people did not have food to cover their basic needs; which would not have happened if the supply chain of the organizations was prepared and ready. According to literature, there are several influencing factors for successfully implementing a preparation strategy, some of which being human and financial resources, as well as collaboration and coordination between the key players that exist in the network (Kovacs and Tatham, 2009; Kovacs & Spens, 2007; van Wassenhove, 2006; Hale and Moberg, 2005; Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009; Kaneberg, Hertz and Jensen, 2016; Jahre et al., 2016). For example, in the drought in the Horn of Africa, if the organizations were prepared for this disaster and have acquired the resources they would need in advance, in order to cover the needs of the people, the food crisis would not happen. An interesting fact is that the influencing

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5 factors can both enable and hurdle supply chain Preparedness, according to the type of the disaster researched. For example, time is a barrier in all disasters, except from slow onset disasters, where it can offer a longer warning time to be prepared and prepositioned (Holguin-Veras et. al, 2012).

This study aims to reveal the pre-disaster planning and management of the supply chain that can be made in slow onset disasters by the organizations, as it has not been studied yet. As a result, the following research question arose:

RQ: How do organizations prepare their supply chain for slow onset disasters?

In order to answer to the research question, in-depth qualitative interviews will be conducted in an anticipated disaster, where Preparedness was possible. The results of this research can help to identify the influencing factors that affect a Preparedness strategy in slow onset disasters, providing new knowledge and new insights in this field. In doing so, this study makes three important contributions. Firstly, this paper is taking into account Supply Chain Preparedness in the specific type of slow onset disasters, which has not been studied yet; as well as by which influencing factors is affected. Secondly, the results of this paper can contribute with new insights about the general preparation strategies of an organization in a crisis. Finally, the findings can be also used practically as a guideline for organizations, which want to prepare their supply chain for a slow onset disaster, so that they will know where their strategies should be based on.

The structure of this paper is as follows. It includes a theoretical background, where the main ideas are analyzed and presented as found in literature; a methodology section, where the method used to answer the research question is described; an analysis and discussion section, where data collection and their analysis is conducted and finally, the conclusion, where the main conclusions are presented, as well as limitations and further research on the field.

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2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

2.1. Humanitarian Logistics and Disasters

The core role of humanitarian Logistics is the process of planning and implementing an efficient use of resources, by matching a cost-effective management of goods, services and information in the shortest possible time, for alleviating the suffering of vulnerable people (Kunz, 2012; van Wassenhove, 2006; Thomas and Kopczak, 2005 in Kunz, 2012).

The function of humanitarian Logistics consists of a range of activities, such as Preparedness and planning, management of procurement, warehousing and transportation, as well as tracking and tracing and customs clearance (Thomas and Kopczak, 2005 in Kunz, 2012); all of which are encompassed in the supply chain management. Under the umbrella of humanitarian Logistics, all groups of organizations are included, which are assembled for encountering any disaster occurred (Day et al., 2012) and have as a primary goal to deliver humanitarian aid in a cost effective and appropriate way (Abidi, Leeuw and Klumpp, 2013).

A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of society, caused by accident, nature or human activity, developing suddenly or as a result of long-term processes, that physically affects a system as a whole and threatens its priorities and goals (van Wassenhove, 2006; Day et al., 2012). As found in literature, there are four phases of every disaster; Preparedness, Mitigation, Response and Rehabilitation (van Wassenhove, 2006; Brown, 1979 in Swanson and Smith, 2013; Ludema and Roos, 2000). The first two phases, which sometimes are used synonymously (Holguin-Veras et al. 2012), are said to reduce the impact of the disaster, as they happen before the incident takes place (van Wassenhove, 2006). The third phase, the Response, is taking place after the occurrence of the disaster and its effectiveness is also impacted by the first two phases (van Wassenhove, 2006). Lastly, the fourth and final phase encompasses the reconstruction of any destroyed infrastructure (van Wassenhove, 2006), as well as a return to normality for the affected population (Holguin-Veras et al. 2012).

In literature the importance of the first phase, Preparedness, is recognized by all of the researchers, except for one. Afshar and Haghani (2012) stated that, greater preparation and better warnings can reduce vulnerability or even prevent disasters during the next repetition of the cycle. Likewise, Jahre et al. (2016) stated that the response to all disasters is the activation of the preparation stage, by using the processes that have been developed. Kunz et al. (2014) studied a case, with no pre-disaster Preparedness activities, which resulted in disappointing results as the delivery of the relief items was delayed for weeks, highlighting how different the result would be with a preparation strategy.

However, Beamon and Balcik (2008) stated, that preparation cannot be applied in every case, as sudden disasters, like the tsunami after the earthquake in Japan in 2011, are

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assessing available infrastructure (ports, roads, etc.) Jahre et al. (2016)

estimate / forecast the amount of supplies/ requirements Wang et al. (2016);Holguin-Veras et al.

(2012)

assess and determine the location of beneficiaries as well as their needs

Starr & van Wassenhove (2014); Haavisto &

Goentzel (2015); Kovacs & Tatham (2009) acquisition of goods and/or services before the disaster De Leeuw (2012); Tatham & Pettit (2010)

pre-procurement of relief goods and equipment from local / global suppliers

Jahre & Heigh (2008); Kovacs and Spens (2007); Beamon & Balcik (2008) Agreements & Contracts long-term/stand-by agreements with suppliers and contracting

decisions before

De Leeuw (2012);Charles (1995); Jahre &

Heigh (2008)

Sourcing Decisions decisions concerned with outsourcing and insourcing Jahre et al. (2016); De Leeuw (2012) maintaining fully stocked warehouses in key locations and pre-

planned stock Pettit & Beresford (2009)

develop an efficient, quick-response warehouse inventory policy Beamon & Kotleba (2006)

Pre-positioning of relief, critical supplies near the affected area/avoid lead times

Jahre & Heigh (2008); van Wassenhove (2006); Beamon & Kotleba (2006); Jahre et

al. (2016); Holguin-Veras et al. (2012) planning adaptive/integral capacity Cutter et al. (2008); Jahre et al. (2016); Kunz

et al. (2014)

plan to transport & distribute personnel and supplies rapidly Pettit & Beresford (2009); Jahre et al. (2016) having modes of transport and trade lanes in place van Wassenhove (2006) Transportation &

Distribution Pre-establishment of

Inventory, Capacity

Preparedness

Logistics

Demand Assessment Assessment

Procurement

Pre-purchasing Supplies

unanticipated and unpredictable in terms of timing, location and type, so the required set of supplies cannot be known beforehand. Based on these views, the importance of Preparedness can be highlighted as well as the level it affects all the other phases of a disaster. In order to acquire better results, crisis management is based on Preparedness, on which this paper will focus, as it is highlighted as the most important phase.

2.2 Supply Chain Preparedness in Disasters

Supply Chain Preparedness has various and different definitions, as found in literature, regarding the focus and the perspective of each researcher. Generally, it can be said that Preparedness encompasses a broad range of activities; however in this paper, two definitions of the literature review were found suitable to meet the purposes of this research. Firstly, as Heigh (2006) in Jahre and Heigh (2008) defined, Preparedness helps the coordination of supply chain activities, such as procurement, sourcing, transport and warehousing of relief goods and equipment to satisfy the needs at least cost. Then, Jahre et al. (2016) defined Preparedness in a general scope as successfully managing ‘needs assessment, procurement, warehousing, transporting and distributing, for the purpose of alleviating the suffering of vulnerable people’, which this paper will follow. This paper categorizes Preparedness in three subcategories, as can be seen from Table 1, Assessment, Procurement and Logistics, as they can be considered the three most important elements to be studied in order to be successfully prepared.

Table 1: Preparedness Categorization

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8 Assessment

The first thing that an organization has to take into account, when preparing its supply chain for a disaster is Assessment. Assessment can be defined as the identification and estimation of the number and kind of resources required, to meet the upcoming needs of the beneficiaries, in terms of forecasting and collecting data of the needs and the available resources and infrastructure (Haavisto & Goentzel, 2015; Kovacs & Tatham, 2009; Jahre et al., 2016; Wang, Wu, Liang and Huang, 2016; Holguin-Veras et al., 2012; Starr and van Wassenhove, 2014). Firstly, it is essential to have information about the demographics of the affected population, before the disaster strikes (Afshar and Haghani, 2012), as different people have different needs and need different handling. The number of victims, as well as the age, culture and gender of these victims, are all important information an organization should know beforehand, in order to prepare their strategies (de Leeuw, Vis and Jonkman, 2012). By forecasting the demographics and the possible demand, an organization can translate the Assessment into resources requirements (Jahre et al., 2016; Tomasini and Van Wassenhove, 2009); its availability of capacity, personnel, financial or other resources, as well as to assess the available infrastructure. In this way, they can pre-acquire and preposition resources in the most suitable location and avoid stock-out possibilities.

Additionally, estimation in the location of the disaster or the season that will strike can be very important, as they can also differentiate the upcoming needs (Kovacs and Spens, 2009);

for instance blankets for the winter or more water in the summer. As a result of the above, a strategic Assessment plan is proposed to be developed before a disaster, that will help the organizations to encounter the forecasted demand (Kovacs and Spens, 2007; Jahre et al., 2016; Glenn Richey Jr., 2009; Hale and Moberg, 2005).

Procurement

After having knowledge on how many victims and their demographics, as well as potential places and time that the disaster will strike, the organization can plan further activities. The second stage of a preparation strategy involves Procurement processes. Encompassed in this category are the pre-purchasing of supplies, the beforehand negotiated contracts with suppliers, either locally or globally and the sourcing strategies that should be decided in advance (Kovacs and Spens, 2007; Jahre et al., 2016; de Leeuw et al., 2012; Beamon and Balcik, 2008; Charles, 1995; Abidi et al., 2013; Jahre and Heigh, 2008; Tatham and Pettit, 2010). Having knowledge about the resources that will be needed, the organization can start acquiring them according to their forecasts, in order to be available in advance for the time they will be needed. By acquiring the supplies beforehand, costs are reduced and time is saved, because during a disaster, there is a dramatic increase in demand and prices of supplies (Beamon and Balcik, 2008) and some resources are difficult to be found, such as the fast-moving emergency supply items (bottled water) (de Leeuw et al., 2012). Additionally, the contracts with their suppliers or important decisions, such as which activities they will

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9 outsource or do in-house or whether they will buy globally or locally, can now be made. For example, stand-by long-term agreements with suppliers might decrease the inventory investment (Beamon and Balcik, 2008; Charles, 1995; Hale and Moberg, 2005) or outsourcing their non-core competences, such as transportation for organizations that provide medical aid, can be beneficial for their core services (Abidi et al., 2013; de Leeuw et al., 2012).

Logistics

The third important stage, after assessing the demand and having made important decisions of the Procurement strategy, is the Logistics aspect. This perspective includes the prepositioning, decisions for managing inventories and capacity, as well as the transportation and distribution plans (Jahre et al., 2016; Pettit and Beresford, 2009; Holguin-Veras et al., 2012; Beamon and Kotleba, 2006; Jahre and Heigh, 2008; van Wassenhove, 2006; Cutter, Barnes, Berry, Burton, Evans, Tate and Webb, 2008; Kunz et al., 2014). The organizations have to make important decisions at this point whether, for example, a centralized or decentralized warehouse will be pre-positioned, about inventory levels of stock as well as potential locations combined with small lead times, as they are critical for humanitarian aid (Long and Wood, 1995 in Pettit and Beresford, 2009). By pre-positioning commodities on dynamic facility locations, as found by Tomasini and van Wassenhove (2009) and Fahimnia, Jabbarzadeh, Ghavamifar and Bell (2015), the costs of standardized high-demand goods can be reduced along with the time to acquire them. Additionally, the planning of transportation and distribution channels is yet to be decided, as personnel and commodities have to be transported and distributed to different destinations, quickly and efficiently. For example, the organization can decide beforehand whether they will use a route planning (Kovacs and Spens, 2007) or a ‘last mile’ delivery method by using various transportation modes, such as trucks or trains (Beamon and Balcik, 2008). Lastly, during a crisis, significant problems arise for the transportation and distribution of large amounts of commodities, as stated by Afshar and Haghani (2012), so by being strategically prepared for the method that will be used, it can result in a competitive advantage for the organization.

2.3. Influencing Factors of Preparedness

Preparedness, though, is not only affected by the elements mentioned above; there are some influencing factors that have impact on its performance; some key elements that affect the variables that characterize Preparedness. Preparedness is often neglected by some organizations, and it is believed that this is a result of the influencing factors that either support or block this phase (Majewski et al., 2010 in Kunz, 2012). These factors identified are divided in three main categories in this paper, as seen in Table 2, according to what is involved in them; the Resources, the Stakeholders and the Context. The first category contains the Resources, Human, Financial and Other Resources that affect

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10 Preparedness; followed by the Stakeholders’ category, where all the key players that exist are grouped, including all the Organizations, NGOs and private, the Donors, the Government, the Military and the Media. Lastly, the Context category includes the Coordination and Collaboration between all the Stakeholders involved, the Location and Type of the disaster, as well as whether Preparedness is viewed as a competitive strategy by the organizations. The influencing factors were found in literature to affect Preparedness in general and not to the specific subcategories presented in the previous section. It is important to state here that through the literature review, it was observed that these influencing factors also affect each other, and as aresult they affect Preparedness indirectly.

Table 2: Categorization of Influencing Factors of Preparedness

sufficient number of personnel Kaneberg et al. (2016); Tomasini et al. (2009); Charles (1995)

skilled / trained personnel / experienced logisticians

Overstreet et al. (2011); Tatham & Pettit (2010);

Kovacs & Tatham (2009); Jahre et al. (2016); Charles (1995)

Funding level of available funding / funding issues /

prepardness funding

Kovacs & Spens (2011); van Wassenhove (2006);

Fahimnia et al. (2015); Jahre et al. (2016), Kunz et al.

(2014); Pettit & Beresford (2005) types / emergency equipment required / technology /

information technology / information on procedures / knowledge gained

Pettit & Beresford (2005); Jahre et al. (2016); Hale &

Moberg (2005); Overstreet et al. (2011); Kaneberg et al. (2016); Kovacs & Spens (2011); Charles (1995)

warning time / time horizon to set up SC / unpredictability of timing

Kovacs & Spens (2009); Pettit & Beresford (2005);

Beamon & kotleba (2006); Kunz et al. (2014)

kind and quality of supplies / critical emergency supplies

Kovacs & Spens (2007); Pettit & Beresford (2005);

Kovacs & Spens (2011); Hale & Moberg (2005)

laws & regulations / local government / government situational factors / governmental resources & help

Kaneberg et al. (2016); van Wassenhove (2006); Jahre et al. (2016); Hale & Moberg (2005); Tomasini et al.

(2009); Overstreet et al. (2011); Kunz (2012) military operation / involvement / resources/

capabilities

Kaneberg et al. (2016); van Wassenhove (2006);

Tomasini et al. (2009); Ludema & Roos (2000)

existence of other NGOs / resources of NGOs / donor accountability and transparency / persuade donors

van Wassenhove (2006); Tomasini et al. (2009);

Kaneberg et al. (2016); Kovacs & Spens (2007)

publicity / coverage of pre-disasters efforts Holguín-Veras et al. ; Overstreet et al.

(2011);Abidi et al. (2013); Day et al. (2012)

ways of collaboration with stakeholders / glue that holds the stakeholders together

van Wassenhove (2006); Glenn Richey Jr. (2009);

Jahre et al. (2016); Stewart et al. (2009); Kovacs &

Spens (2007); Tomasini et al. (2009); Kovacs &

Tatham (2009) preparedness seen as not important / not seen as

strategic component

Beamon and Kotleba (2006); Maon et al. (2009) in Jahre 2016; Abidi et al.(2013)

unpredictability of location, type, and size Kovacs and Spens (2009)

Influencing Factors of Preparedness

Resources

Stakeholders

Government

Military Time Human

Coordination &

Collaboration of Stakeholders Personnel & Training

Financial resources

Location, Type

Context

Strategic View of Preparedness

Media Other

Equipment, Technology, Knowledge, Information

Organizations & Donors Supplies (Food, supplies)

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The first level, the resource level, as identified in literature, includes all the Human Resources, Funding and Other Resources, which are the Equipment, Technology, Information, Knowledge, Time and Supplies. Human Resources, which are all the Personnel, qualified or not, are the first influencing factor, as presented in literature. The preparation strategies of an organization are affected by Human Resources, in terms of their quantity and quality (Tatham and Pettit, 2010; Charles, 1995; Overstreet et al., 2011; Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009; Kaneberg et al., 2016; Kovacs and Tatham, 2009; Jahre et al., 2016). An organization needs a sufficient number of Personnel, as well as qualified and experienced logisticians and managers to prepare for the crisis. For example, when a manager is unqualified, the demand Assessment will not be correctly measured, which will lead to insufficient Procurement planning and Logistics prepositioning. Additionally, by training personnel, the effectiveness of the performance of this phase can be improved, as well as the personnel acquires adaptive capabilities, which are useful for preparation strategies (Kaneberg et al., 2016).

The next influencing factor that affects Preparedness is the Funding in terms of sufficiency or insufficiency of Financial Resources (Kovacs and Spens, 2011; van Wassenhove, 2006; Fahimnia et al., 2015; Jahre et al., 2016, Kunz et al., 2014; Pettit and Beresford, 2005; Beamon and Balcik, 2008). For example, an organization needs Financial Resources, in order to cover its investments for acquiring and warehousing the supplies, as well as to maintain its supply chain structures (Kunz et al., 2014). Most researchers refer to insufficiency of Funding, which can result in great challenge for the organizations, in order to prepare. For example, Jahre et al. (2016) referred to ‘a lack of Preparedness Funding’ (p. 385) and Starr and van Wassenhove (2014) to the tendency of funds to be uncertain and erratic.

Last factor in this categorization, are all the Other Resources that influence Preparedness: Technology, Information, Knowledge, Equipment, Time and Supplies (Pettit and Beresford, 2005; Jahre et al., 2016; Hale and Moberg, 2005; Overstreet et al., 2011; Kaneberg et al., 2016; Kovacs and Spens, 2007, 2009 and 2011; Charles, 1995;

Beamon and Kotleba, 2006; Kunz et al., 2014). A lack of such Resources can be an obstacle to the organizations that try to prepare for a disaster. This lack of resources can be a result of wrong assessment by unqualified staff or insufficient funding to acquire these resources, leading to inability to preposition and pre-purchase by the organizations.

For example, Knowledge from previous emergencies or about the way the system is meant to function can enable preparation strategies, as well as their performance. Lastly, limited Time is a potential problem for Preparedness, as, for example, there is not sufficient time to acquire Financial Resources and Supplies to preposition.

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12 Stakeholders

In the humanitarian sector a variety of Stakeholders exist: the Government, the Military, the Organizations, the Donors and the Media that affect Preparedness. Firstly, the Government can influence the preparation strategies of the organizations, in terms of some Governmental situational factors, such as laws and regulations (Kaneberg et al.

2016; Kunz, 2012), which might challenge the prepositioning or the agreements and contracts of the organizations. However, it was found that the Government can also enable Preparedness indirectly, by affecting other influencing factors (van Wassenhove, 2006; Jahre et al., 2016; Hale and Moberg, 2005; Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009;

Overstreet et al., 2011). For example, they can provide Funding or share resources, such as Human Resources and Supplies with the organizations, as well as help them prepositioning by offering warehouses and centers. Similarly, the Military influences Preparedness indirectly, by sharing Resources and capabilities, as well as by volunteering (Kaneberg et al., 2016; van Wassenhove, 2006; Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009;

Ludema and Roos, 2000). For example, the Military can assist the organizations in the transportation of resources. Some may consider the Military a part of the Government, though because of the specific characteristics of each and every country, it was decided in this paper to be a separate category.

Next, all the Organizations, private and NGOs, as well as the Donors exist as Stakeholders, affecting Preparedness mainly indirectly. The Other Organizations can affect Preparedness in two ways; either by the consequences of their decisions and their level of involvement, or as the previous Stakeholders, by funding them or sharing Resources (Kaneberg et al., 2016; van Wassenhove, 2006; Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009). The Donors are normally the consumer in supply chains and the chain follows their preferences; though in disaster management, the Donors have to act according to the organizations, which leads to problems in Preparedness. Moreover, the Donors have the tendency to fund only the Response phase (Kovacs and Spens, 2007), so the organizations have to persuade the Donors for funding them also in Preparedness.

Lastly, the Media influence Preparedness indirectly, as it influences other factors, such as Funding and Donors, by using positive or negative publicity for/against those organizations or by coverage of their pre-disaster efforts (Overstreet et al., 2011;

Holguín-Veras et al, 2012).

Context

In this category, Coordination and Collaboration of the Stakeholders, a Strategic view of Preparedness, as well as Location and Type of the disaster are included. The first factor to discuss is Coordination and Collaboration of the Stakeholders. In disaster

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13 management, there is a broad range of Stakeholders that have to collaborate in order to be prepared for the upcoming disaster (Jahre et al., 2016; Stewart, Kolluru and Smith, 2009;

Kovacs and Spens, 2007; Glenn Richey Jr., 2009; Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009;

Kovacs and Tatham, 2009). It is essential to find ‘effective ways to collaborate with other key players’ (p.482, van Wassenhove, 2006), as it is the ‘glue that holds the Stakeholders together’ (p. 623, Glenn Richey Jr., 2009). For example, when there is Collaboration between the Stakeholders, pooling of resources can happen, such as food and clothing, as a better preparation strategy.

Next factor, is that people see Preparedness as a necessary expense, rather than a strategic component (Beamon and Kotleba, 2006; Maon et al. 2009 in Jahre 2016); so, there is lack in identifying its importance (Abidi et al., 2013). By using preparation methods and planning, which is found to reduce the costs of the operations (Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009; Fahimnia et al., 2015), an organization can ensure its future survival, as some organizations may collapse after the disaster, due to the high amount of resources spent during the disaster.

Last factors of this category, are the Location and the Type of the disaster, whose high degree of unpredictability can be a challenge for the organizations willing to prepare for a disaster (Kovacs and Spens, 2009). For example, the Type can affect the level of capacity or inventories in prepositioning; the smaller the disaster, the less supplies will be needed as the level of influence will be small. The Location, for instance can affect the demand assessment, as different locations that the disaster will affect results in different needs; or the transportation and distribution of commodities as different locations have different available infrastructures. So, when these factors remain unknown for the organizations, Preparedness can become a challenge.

2.4. Slow Onset Disasters

The literature review of influencing factors presented above, accounts for disasters in general. As van Wassenhove (2006) presented, disasters are divided into sudden onset and slow onset. The primary characteristics among this distinction of the disasters is the degree of uncertainty, in terms of their predictability, their forewarning period and speed, as these can play a major role in preparing and responding to them and decrease the negative impacts (Chang,Tseng and Chen, 2007; Holguin-Veras et al., 2012; Fahimnia et al., 2015). As a result, these different types of disasters might differentiate the Preparedness phase or the influencing factors, as different situations might need different handling. For example, when a disaster is anticipated, the chain can be ready to encounter every challenge that might appear, in comparison to a disaster that strikes suddenly.

The intriguing fact in slow onset disasters is that, some very important elements are known beforehand. The Location, Type, Time or severity of the disaster are known

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14 beforehand and there is a warning period available (Duran et al., 2011 and Rawls &

Turnquist, 2010 in Kunz 2012; Kovacs and Spens, 2009), which can change radically a lot of the influencing factors. The warning period that is available allows for the predictability of the slow onset disaster (Fahimnia et al., 2015; Beamon and Balcik, 2008), which offers the organization more time to prepare their strategy. The influencing factors Location and Type can enable the organization, for example, to perform precise and accurate forecasts and demand assessments for the upcoming demand, while sufficiency of Time enables the adequate pre-purchasing of resources and their prepositioning. For instance, in supply chains the inventory is positioned near the customers in anticipation of demand and after the actual demand, further adjusted (Swanson and Smith, 2013). In slow onset disasters, where Location is known beforehand, the inventory can be prepositioned by the humanitarian supply chain managers near the affected population, without need of further adjustments, while reducing the costs. While Tomasini and van Wassenhove (2009) stated that the way to respond to disasters remains relatively similar in all cases, all of the above reveal that Preparedness, specifically in slow onset disasters, can be different.

Overall, while slow onset disasters allow for more time to react, their large scale may result in worse consequences for the affected population, than in other disasters (Long and Wood, 1995 and Majewski et al. 2010 in Kunz, 2012). As a result, Preparedness in slow onset disasters is of paramount importance, as it can reduce the effects of the disaster.

2.5. Conceptual Model

In the literature review the importance of Preparedness, as well as the influencing factors that affect it have been identified for all disasters. The influencing factors have been divided in three subcategories, Resources, Stakeholders and Context, where different factors are included. Preparedness has been divided also in three subcategories, Assessment, Procurement and Logistics. However, in slow onset disasters some factors are known beforehand, such as Location and Type, while there is a warning period and more Time available. As a result, Preparedness in slow onset disasters might be different than in all the other types of disasters. The aim of this research is to bridge the gap that exists in the slow onset disasters and Preparedness, as well as identify the influencing factors that apply to slow onset disasters. The conceptual model is presented in Figure 1.

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Human Funding Other Government

Military Organizations &

Donors

Agreements &

Contracts

Media Sourcing

Decisions Coordination &

Collaboration Strategic view of

Preparedness

Location & Type Transportation

& Distribution Logistics

Needs Assessment

Pre-purchasing supplies

Pre- establishment

of Inventory, Capacity Influencing Factors Preparedness in Slow Onset Disasters

Assessment

Procurement Resources

Stakeholders

Context

Figure 1: Conceptual Model

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3.METHODOLOGY

3.1. Defining the Method

After a thorough literature review, it was found that slow onset disasters have some specific characteristics that are known in advance, such as Type of disaster and Location that will be affected, which might differentiate the factors that influence Preparedness strategies. With the aim of gaining insight about the factors that influence Preparedness in slow onset disasters, as little research has been done; this research uses in-depth qualitative interviews. The use of qualitative research is explicitly suitable to allow the in-depth acquisition of knowledge and information (Johnson, 2002), which this research is aiming for. In this paper, the unit of analysis is organizations, which are involved and active in slow onset disasters. Furthermore, qualitative research allows the understanding of context-specific setting, (Golafshani, 2003), in this case, Preparedness in slow onset disasters. By selecting multiple organizations for this research, the external validity is reinforced by comparing results and the researcher avoids misinterpretation of single events (Voss et al. in Karlsson 2016). The different characteristics of the involved organizations, enabled the comparison of the different influencing factors they used, identifying how these factors affected the Preparedness in slow onset disasters.

3.2. Setting

As this study aiming for researching Preparedness in slow onset disasters, the refugee crisis in Greece was selected. This crisis is one of the most recent and biggest humanitarian crises, as it is still happening and involves approximately 2 million refugees (Statistical data on migration, Hellenic Police, 2017; Greek crisis briefing, IRC, 2017).

The refugee crisis belongs to the general field of slow onset disasters, as it was a disaster that was predicted and anticipated. The civil war in Syria started in 2011, and resulted in a rising number of immigrants arriving in the European Union, especially in Greece, seeking for asylum and safety. This immigration flow started approximately in the summer of 2015, where thousands of people arrived in Greek islands, such as Lesbos, Kos and Rhodes, by travelling either overland or overseas (Greek crisis briefing, IRC, 2017).

This disaster was a disaster that was anticipated, since the war started in 2011, so the organizations had enough time to be prepared and respond to this disaster. According to the Hellenic Police, the number of the total refugees that arrived in Greece in 2014 was 45,400 people, while in 2015 the number was 876,200 people (Statistical data on migration, Hellenic Police, 2017). As seen from figure 2, the entrance of refugees in Greece in 2015, and the increased number of refugees from 2014 to 2015, the disaster was developing slowly and steadily in the beginning, while in July 2015 a burst of people entering Greece can be observed. This reveals that the organizations had more than one

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17 year to be prepared to help those people. The number of the refugees that were arriving everyday regarded a high level of Preparedness, as these people had different needs and required a lot of supplies, such as food, clothes, medical help or legal support as they would not stay in Greece. For example, the organizations should have experienced personnel ready to help the refugees when they would arrive, for example doctors or psychologists, which are Resources that need some time to be acquired. From the above example, the need of a good preparation strategy is revealed, in order to be able to respond to the needs.

Figure 2 Monthly arrivals 2015 in Greece

3.3. Interview Protocol and Data Collection

The sources of the data for this research were semi-structured interviews with members of the organizations, who were contacted and asked to respond. Grounded in the literature review of this paper, an interview protocol and a questionnaire (found in Appendix 1 and 2 respectively) were developed, in order to improve the reliability of the study and the comparability of the answers (Yin, 2009 in Scholten and Schilder, 2015). The interview protocol and the questionnaire were created by the researchers and two professors in the department of Supply Chain Management at the University of Groningen. The questionnaire consisted of open questions to encourage detailed descriptions, which derived after carefully studying the variables presented in the literature review, their connection and the fact that they would be understandable to all respondents. In order to increase confidence and objectiveness in results, all the interviews will be conducted by

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18 two different researchers, one asking questions and one writing down the answers, while checking that the correct structure of the interview will be followed. Additionally, a pilot interview was scheduled beforehand with a volunteer of an organization, to ensure the correct conduct of the interviews, as well as to identify potential mistakes that would not lead to the desirable results. The pilot interview was recorder and was conducted by both researchers. The results of the pilot interview showed that some questions were not clear for the interviewee, so a further clarification of them was decided. This research had two potential problems. Firstly, the fact that the exact time of the organizations’ arrival in Greece was not clarified before the interviews or whether they had implemented a preparation strategy; and the particular interest of this study to identify the specific actions that are made before a disaster, which were thought to be acquired only by qualified personnel or high level employees. However, the results of the pilot interview showed that even when an organization was created during the Response phase and the respondent was volunteer, useful information and insights can be derived about the procedures followed or potential successful or unsuccessful actions, which affected Preparedness. An example of a question that was used to investigate how an organization can be prepared in a slow onset disaster is the following: ‘When and how did you become aware of the upcoming crisis and what steps did you take to prepare?’

In collecting data for this study, 12 semi-structured interviews (of approximately 60 minutes) were conducted between March and May in 2017, including the pilot interview, which was decided to be used. The organizations involved were covering either general needs (food, clothes or blankets) or context specific needs (medical, legal or psychological support). Additionally, the organizations differentiated in their size and their origin; there were small and big, as well as local and international organizations.

The categorization of their size was made according to their capacity of personnel they had. For example, Organization (7) has a capacity of more than 500 employees, thus they are considered a big organization. Finally, the organizations were also positioned in different camps, either small or big camps in Greece. The categorization of the camps was also made according to their capacity (the number of refugees they can host). An overview of the organizations can be seen in Table 3.

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19 Table 3: Overview of Organizations

The interviewees had different roles inside the organizations, from volunteers to project managers or coordinators that were members of the organizations or were present in a camp during the crisis. For each interview an individual Skype meeting or telephone call was scheduled, as it was impossible to meet them in person. After confirmation received, the interview protocol and the questions for the interview were sent to the respondents via e-mail, 24-48 hours before the interviews. Before the start of the interviews the research topic was clarified to them, along with a short introduction. Permission to record the interviews was requested, as well as details and guarantees about the confidentiality and privacy for the interviews. The transcripts of the interviews were sent to the participants to acquire their consent, after they were worked out.

3.4. Coding Method

In order to analyze the data, Excel was used as the tool for the process. The quotes of the interviews, that were found relevant to this study, were placed in Excel and they were coded according to a deductive coding procedure. The procedure was based on the variables of influencing factors and of Preparedness. Firstly, the quotes were summarized in a descriptive code for the convenience of the researcher. Then, the codes regarding each variable of the three categories of Preparedness, the codes regarding each variable of the three categories of the Influencing Factors and their relevance were placed. An example can be seen in Table 4.

Organizations Size Origin Service Offered Locations Size of Camp Intervieew

Organization 1 Small International General Needs Single Big Camp Volunteer Organization 2 Small International General Needs Single Big Camp Team Captain Organization 3 Small International Specific Needs Single Not in a Camp PR Officer

Organization 4 Big Local Specific Needs Multiple Big Camp PR Manager

Organization 5 Big Local Specific &

General Needs Multiple Big Camp PR Officer

Organization 6 Small Local General Needs Single Small Camp Volunteer

Organization 7 Big Local Specific Needs Multiple Big Camp Lawyer

Organization 8 Small Local General Needs Single Small Camp Founding Member

Organization 9 Small Local General Needs Single Big Camp Volunteer

Organization 10 Big Local Medical Single Big Camp Founding Member &

Coordinator Organization 11 Big Local Specific &

General Needs Multiple Big Camp PR Manager Organization 12 Small International General Needs Multiple Big Camp Founding Member

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Quote Descriptive Quote Category Preparedness Factor How Why

Depending on how many people would arrive every day, then the

most important thing was information

They need information for

the number of refugees

Demand

Assessment Assessment Information (Resources)

Quantity of Refugees

Number of refugees will show number of resources

Table 4: Example of Quote Coding

After the coding procedure for all the quotes of every organizations ended, patterns were created within each case, by using 1^st order codes. The 1^st order codes were based on the how and why the variables of influencing factors affect the variables of Preparedness, as seen by Table 5.

Table 5: Example of 1st order coding

Then, a cross case analysis was conducted, by combining all the quotes of the organizations to one separate Excel. This allowed for the identification of specific contingencies, which might differentiate the variables between them. The contingencies, which compose the 2^nd order codes, were based on the similarities between the different characteristics of each organization (Table 3). An example of 2^nd order coding is presented in Table 6. Finally, the combination of 1^st and 2^nd order codes led to the creation of the coding tree (Appendix 3).

Table 6: Example of 2nd order coding

Quote Descriptive Quote Category Preparedness Factor How Why 1st Order

Depending on how many people would arrive every day, then the

most important thing was information

They need information for

the number of refugees

Demand

Assessment Assessment Information (Resources)

Quantity of Refugees

Number of refugees will show number of resources

Information enables assessment, because they need numbers

to pre-purchase

Quote Descriptive Quote Category Preparedness Factor How Why 1st Order 2nd Order

we started already to prepare, knowing that people were coming, we had done a campaign

via the municipality, in all the villages, in order to gather food,

clothes, blankets, everything relevant, in order to be prepared

to cover those needs

They asked for funding in supplies to help

the refugees

Pre-

purchasing Procurement Funding (Resources)

supplies (food, clothes)

need funding in supplies to pre-acquire

them

Funding enables Procurement cause they need money or supplies to pre-

acquire

Funding affects Procurement when organization is small,

local, general needs, big camp

but of course until we had the capability, which is the support

of people and donations being given to our organization we

were not able to act on it

They could not prepare because they did not have

money

Pre-

purchasing Procurement Funding

(Resources) Money

Need funding, money to pre- purchase, they could not

Lack of Funding barrier to Procurement, they

could not pre- purchase

Funding affects Procurement when organization is small, international, specific needs,

big camp

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21 3.5. Data Analysis

To ensure data validity and reliability, both in the data collection and analysis, different measures were taken, as described in the above section and depicted in Table 7. The table was based on Voss et al. in Karlsson (2016) and Riege and McKinnon (2003).

Table 7: Validity and Reliability of Research

Validity & Reliability Measures

Procedure of data colllection: Clear Pilot-test of the interview (Sources of Evidence)

Use of academic papers,websites (Sources of Evidence)

Semi-Structured Interviews (Sources of Evidence)

Transcript reviewed from Intervieew (Informants reviews reports)

Professors reviewed the study (Informants reviews reports) Cross-case analysis

Clear Explanation of Results

Replication Logic : multiple cases Generalizability Theoretical ground of research

Interview protocol created by two researchers & professors Two researchers in interviews

Audio record of data & transcripts of interviews

Construct Validity

Reliability Internal Validity

External Validity

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4. FINDINGS

The results of this research are presented into the three different categories of Preparedness: Assessment, Procurement and Logistics. In the three different categories of Preparedness, the influencing factors that were identified to affect each category of Preparedness will be presented and their connection with the specific type of slow onset disasters. Additionally, the connections between the differentiated influencing factors for each category and the contingencies the organizations apply to, will be presented. An overview of the findings is first presented and then the findings will be presented in depth.

4.1. Overview of Findings

The influencing factors that were identified were differentiated for each category of Preparedness in slow onset disasters. The first category, Assessment is affected by Trained Personnel, Technology and Information from the category of Resources and Type from the category of Context, all of which act as enablers. The next category, Procurement is impacted by Funding and Time from the category of Resources, as well as the specific Type and known Location of the category Context. All the factors act as enablers. Last category, Logistics is influenced by Technology, Time and Supplies from the category of Resources, the Military from Stakeholders, as well as Coordination and Collaboration and known Location from the Context category. All the factors mentioned, act as enablers. Government from the category of Stakeholders was found as a barrier for Preparedness strategies in general. The influencing factors are summarized and presented in Table 8 below, as well as the way the organizations interpreted them.

‘Are we ready?’

‘Are we ready?’

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