Climate Services: Next Steps
Ants Leetmaa
Climate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Washington D. C. 20233
Presentation to Federal Committee for
Meteorological Services and Supporting Research
November 14, 2000
Climate Services: Successes to Build On
Outreach: Enhanced public awareness of climate, its natural modes and of change
Forecasting: Demonstrated skill in seasonal forecasts:
NWS starts integration of weather and climate forecasts
Benefits: Climate information starting to be used for
mitigation and deriving economic benefits.
C o m b i n e d W i n t e r
1 9 9 8 - 9 9 a n d 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 0 0
A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e a n d P r e c i p i t a t i o n
F o r e c a s t O b s e r v e d
D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 7 - F e b r u a r y 1 9 9 8
D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 9 - F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 0
P r e c i p i t a t i o n T e m p e r a t u r e
F o r e c a s t O b s e r v e d
D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 8 - F e b r u a r y 1 9 9 9
D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 7 - F e b r u a r y 1 9 9 8
C l i m a t e P r e d i c t i o n C e n t e r ’s R e c e n t W i n t e r F o r e c a s t s
D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 8 - F e b r u a r y 1 9 9 9
D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 9 - F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 0
Climate Services: Next Steps
Outreach: Improve real-time attribution establishing links between extremes, variability, and change.
Forecasts: Develop a credible climate variability and change model based on community standards for
weather and climate models.
Benefits:
Develop a local climate services infrastructure utilizing partnerships between the private sector, Universities and diverse Agencies
Develop needed products at national and local scales utilizing multi-Agency and local experts e. g. drought, excessive heat, health and energy.
Merge the above elements into a coordinated
national climate service activity
Climate Services: Needed Enhancements to Infrastructure
Maintain international momentum towards implementation of global climate ocean observing systems needed to go beyond ENSO based forecasts and attribution studies (Argo, satellite altimetry and wind observations).
Provide adequate computational capabilities for community model developmental activities and routine running of assessments and forecasts.
Adequate funding for research.
O b s e r v e d S u r f a c e T e m p e r a t u r e T r e n d ( 1 9 5 0 - 1 9 9 9 ( C P e r 5 0 Y e a r s )
0T r e n d D u e t o C l i m a t e V a r i a b i l i t y
( R e s u l t i n g F r o m P a c i fic D e c a d a l a n d A r c t i c O s c i l l a t i o n s )
R e s i d u a l T r e n d ( a - b ) a )
b )
T R E N D I N W I N T E R T I M E S U R F A C E T E M P E R A T U R E S
• c h a n g e s i n d a i l y e x t r e m e t e m p e r a t u r e s a c c o u n t f o r m u c h o f t h e t r e n d a n d t h e i n t e r a n n u a l v a r i a b i l i t y
• t h e e x t r e m e s u s e d a r e t h e w a r m e s t a n d c o l d e s t 1 0 % o f t h e d a y s f o r 1 9 5 0 - 1 9 9 9
• t h e s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e t r e n d i s r e l a t e d t o t h a t i n t h e e x t r e m e s
• t h e c o l d e x t r e m e s a c c o u n t f o r m u c h o f t h e o b s e r v e d t r e n d
T R E N D I N W I N T E R T I M E P R E C I P I T A T I O N
• c h a n g e s i n h e a v y r a i n e v e n t s a c c o u n t f o r m u c h o f t h e t r e n d a n d i n t e r a n n u a l v a r i a b i l i t y
• t h e e x t r e m e s u s e d a r e t h e t o p 5 % a n d t o p 1 % o f t h e d a y s f o r 1 9 5 0 - 9 9
• o n a n a t i o n a l b a s i s , t h e t o p 5 % ( 1 % ) o f t h e e v e n t s a c c o u n t f o r 2 0 % ( 5 % ) o f t h e t o t a l
