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CPC Operations Branch An Overview

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CPC Operations Branch An Overview

Edward O’Lenic, Chief

January 26, 2010

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Operations Branch Projects

Operations Branch Projects

20.4%

4.1%

6.1%

13.3%

4.1%

15.3%

10.2%

8.2%

10.2%

8.2%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Prediction

JAWF Portal

IT

GIS

Tools Research/

Development

Outreach

Tools Maintenance

Database Management

- Upgr ades t o HDD/ CDD - For ecast t ools upgr ades - blend, ...

- Tools Document at ion - Real- t ime t r ouble- shoot ing - LR f or ecast suppor t gr aphics

- CVS - Bug Tr acking - Telephone and email

- Webinar s - Visit or s - Tr ips t o user conf er ences - Ongoing impr ovement s t o CON

- Ongoing impr ovement s t o ECCA - Ongoing impr ovement s t o NAEFS - Int er act ive Ver if icat ion Web Tool - Resposible f or IT f or all of CPC

- Lead NBS conver sion f or CPC - PC, wor kst at ion maint enance - Lead CPC home page upgr ade

- Tr aining - Secur it y

- Lead CPC- wide ef f or t on por t al - Repr esent NWS on Por t al Team

- Design Team - Over see Pr edict ion - Over see Monit or ing - Lead met adat a f or all CPC pr oduct s

- Daily 6- 10, 8- 14- day f or ecast s - U.S. Hazar ds, weekdays - Dr ought Monit or , weekly - Dr ought Out look, bi- weekly - 1- mont h out looks, bi- weekly - 3- mont h out looks mont hly

- Maint ain CPC- CADB dat abase - CADB maint enance/ r e- wr it e - For ecast oper at ions dat abases

- MYSQL dat abase - Lead CPC GIS ef f or t

- Tr aining - Demonst r at ion pr oject s

- Implement ing int o CPC

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MAPS: Consolidation skill score (lines), and fractional coverage (colors).

Lower Right Corner of each map shows the seasonal mean skill score change from Official (top) to CON (bottom). Large % number is the

change in fractional coverage, CON – minus – OFF, 1995-2004.

Consolidation (CON) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Precipitation Outlook, 1995-2004

FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) +8% MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) +18% ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) +16% NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) +20%

Objective Consolidation Improves upon Official forecast skill and coverage.

2 13

4 17

4 9

19 12

Consolidation (CON) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Temperature Outlook, 1995-2004

FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts)

+11% +31% +40% +55%

NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts)

37 33 16

23 23

33 22

25

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A Culture Change in Operations Branch

• Consolidation implemented late 2005.

• Official 3-mo forecast T, P, Skill, coverage show steady upward trends >2005

• We have embraced collaborative code development

• Implemented code version control (Subversion) and bug-tracking (Bugzilla).

• Introduced Java language into our software development process.

• Implemented rigorous, effective project management principles.

• Rapidly developed a prototype interactive verification web tool.

• Implementation scheduled for late 2010.

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