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Update

13Dec2018

Forecast SW (LSR3) with the linear regression model o Using 5

o

×5

o

box-averaged anomaly

o Using GEFS predicted SCP as a predictor o Forecasts for MAM

o Forecast skill assessed based on cross-validation

• Anomaly correlation

o Comparison between the skills with 5

o

×5

o

box-averaged anomaly vs.

2.5

o

×2.5

o

grid and 1

o

×1

o

Seasonal cycle from 1999-2010 CFSv2-45day

• Monthly mean

• Forecast Week 1-2-3-4

• 12Z-12Z

• 4 members

(2)

Forecast Skill LSR3 MAM 1999-2010 1°x1°

CFSv2 GEFS

(3)

Forecast Skill LSR3 MAM 1999-2010 5°x5°

CFSv2 GEFS

(4)

Forecast Skill LSR3 MAM 1999-2010 2.5°x2.5°

CFSv2

(5)

Week 1

CFSv2 SCP Monthly Climatology 1999-2010

(6)

Week 2

CFSv2 SCP Monthly Climatology 1999-2010

(7)

Week 3

CFSv2 SCP Monthly Climatology 1999-2010

(8)

Week 3

CFSv2 SCP Monthly Climatology 1999-2010

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