1 The USAID FEWS-NET Weather
Hazards Impacts Assessment for Africa March 15 – 21, 2007
• Hot, dry conditions have resulted in crop stress and crop failure across RSA’s Maize Triangle, as well as southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana and Lesotho. Recent dryness may have resulted in crops stress across Swaziland as well.
• Flood waters have begun to recede on the Zambezi and the Shire. Good rains this season have resulted in favorable conditions across Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and northern Mozambique.
1) Hot, dry conditions have resulted in crop stress and failure across RSA’s Maize Triangle, Lesotho and southwestern Zimbabwe
2) Recent dryness has resulted in crop stress across Swaziland and southeastern parts of the Maize Triangle.
3) Erratic rains have stressed crops in southern Mozambique and southeastern Zimbabwe.
4) After severe floods inundated the Zambezi, flood waters have begun to recede. Abundant moisture may be favorable for flood recession agriculture.
5) Abundant, well distributed rains have resulted in good to excellent conditions for crops and pastures in northern Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia.
6) Tropical Cyclone Invlala will bring torrential rains and strong winds to eastern Madagascar early in the period.
7) Early Belg rains favored land preparation and emergence of Belg and Long Cycle crops.
However, rainfall over the past few weeks has been scant.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID. The FEWS NET weather hazards assessment process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Chet.Schmitt@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7519
2
Drought continues to worsen over RSA, southern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique and the surrounding region. Hot, dry conditions since the beginning of the New Year have resulted in crop stress across northern and western portions of RSA’s Maize Triangle, southwestern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique and Lesotho. Crop failure has been reported in the western parts of the Maize Triangle and across Lesotho. To the east, dry conditions during February and early March have resulted in have reduced prospects for a good crop across southeastern portions of the Maize Triangle, as well as Swaziland. Across southeastern Zimbabwe, dry weather from early January through mid February has resulted in crop stress and moisture deficits. Rain from Tropical Cyclone Favio reduced increased moisture and favored pastures across eastern Zimbabwe and central Mozambique. However, conditions have been hot and dry since late February in southeastern Zimbabwe. The erratic nature of the 2006-07 seasonal rains has likely resulted in poor crop conditions and possible crop failures. Dry conditions extend into central Zimbabwe as well.
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for Maize as of March 10, 2007
Source: FEWS NET/USGS
Abundant, well distributed rains have favored crops, pastures and water supplies north of the Zambezi. While drought and poor growing conditions persist across and south of the Limpopo Basin, good seasonal rains have resulted in nearly ideal growing conditions for crops across Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and northern Mozambique. According to the 21-28 February 2007 issue of the Rainfall and Agromet Bulletin from Malawi, a bumper crop is expected once again this year. Favorable conditions have been observed across the northern third of Zimbabwe as well, including the major corn producing areas in the northeast. The good rains have favored pastures and water supplies in the region. According to the latest Dakadal Weather Review put out by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency, pasture conditions and water availability for livestock were very good across the country. According to a recent field report, the good rains have resulted in the early filling of the reservoir behind the Mtera dam in Rufiji basin this year.
After severe flooding along the lower Zambezi and Shire rivers, flood waters have begun to recede. Persistent heavy rains across the Zambezi Basin triggered the most severe flooding since 2001.
However, rainfall has begun to taper off across the basin as the rainy season nears its climatological end. Water levels along the river have begun to recede. Although the floods have washed away bridges, displaced people and inundated some crops, there are some positive aspects to be recognized in the flood’s wake. The abundance of moisture across the flood plain should result in favorable conditions for a good flood recession crop this year.
Early Belg rains favored land preparation efforts and emergence of Belg and Long Cycle crops. The Belg rains started early this year across the southern and eastern highlands of Ethiopia. Light to moderate showers during January-February have resulted in favorable conditions for the onset of the Belg and Long Cycle cropping season.
However, rainfall has been rather scant since the last week of February in eastern Tigray and Ahmara. Belg rains have been spotty so far this month across the southern highlands of Ethiopia as well.
This has reduced top soil moisture across the region. Scattered showers are possible during the period across the Belg areas of the highlands. This would help to boost top soil moisture and continue to favor Belg and Long Cycle cultivation efforts.
March 14 Joint Typhoon Warning Center Bulletin for TC 19S
Tropical Cyclone bears down on eastern Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Indlala (TC 19S) has developed in the southwestern Indian Ocean and has begun to lash northeastern Madagascar with heavy rain and strong wind. The system is expected to make landfall on the 15th in northeastern Madagascar near the coastal city of Antalaha.
Indlala is expected to batter eastern Madagascar with torrential rains and powerful winds resulting in floods, landslides, as well as damage to infrastructure and crops. The 2006-07 cyclone season has been an active one for Madagascar, as Indlala will be the sixth tropical cyclone to either directly strike the island, or pass very close.
7 Day Rainfall Forecast (in mm) from March 14 – 20, 2007 Maize Growing
Conditions
