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Disclosure interests NHG speaker

(Potential) conflict of interests None

Relations with companies possibly relevant to this gathering

None

Funding or research fundings Fee or other (financial) compensation Shareholder

Other relation, namely….

None

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The complexity

beyond guidelines

17 January 2006

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There’s always a BUT

and we need to look

for it.

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•A single correct answer

•Guideline initiated by diagnosis

•How-to versus whether- to

•The urge to simplify

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Doctors and patients as

widgets

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- one should not take it for granted that the patient longs for what others consider

perfect health.

Sarah Moss.

Signs for Lost Children, 2015.

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This misrepresentation of

medical science as the solid,

simple, Newtonian certainty of engineering, rather than the

fluid, complex, Einsteinian doubt of biology, has misled not only the public, but the profession itself.

Julian Tudor Hart A New Kind of Doctor, 1988.

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To be blunt, if one has a very thick skin, the

problems one confronts

become technical, and not the complex ones of

human relations.

Antonovsky A. Complexity, conflict, chaos, coherence, coercion and civility. Soc Sci Med 1993; 37: 969-981.

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•A single correct answer

•Guideline initiated by diagnosis

•How-to versus whether- to

•The urge to simplify

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…that complex,

fragmentary, doubt- provoking

knowledge which we call truth.

George Eliot The Mill on the Floss, 1860

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At such moments

[diagnosis] doubt is smothered and

certainty is being manufactured.

Annemarie Mol The Body Multiple, 2002

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… how to live with doubt? It isn't easy. But somehow we must

come to terms with the fact that we live in an undetermined

world, where doubt can always be raised. Somehow we must learn

to understand how it is that, given this possibility, we can still act.

Annemarie Mol The Body Multiple, 2002

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To act with confidence while simultaneously

remaining uncertain is a paradox that epitomizes expert practice.

JS Ilgen et al. Comfort with uncertainty Advances in Health Sciences Education https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-018-9859-5

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Our definition of confidence is likely to change if we move

away from a goal of ‘getting a

diagnosis right’ towards ‘taking a reasonable next step while

attending to and anticipating

varied responses to management plans.’ JS Ilgen et al. Comfort with uncertainty

Advances in Health Sciences Education https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-018-9859-5

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… the need for clinicians to continuously

reconstruct and redefine their understanding of

the problem, even as

they are trying to solve it

JS Ilgen et al. Comfort with uncertainty Advances in Health Sciences Education https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-018-9859-5

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Doing good does not follow on finding out

about it, but is a matter of, indeed, doing. Of

trying, tinkering,

struggling, failing, and

trying again.

Annemarie Mol The Body Multiple, 2002

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•A simple correct answer

•Guideline initiated by diagnosis

•How-to versus whether- to

•The urge to simplify

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how-to guidelines

whether-to guidelines

Robert McNutt and Nortin M. Hadler How Clinical Guidelines Can Fail Both Doctors and Patients Guest Blog, Scientific American Blog Network, November 22, 2013

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•A single correct answer

•Guideline initiated by diagnosis

•How-to versus whether- to

•The urge to simplify

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mess

versus

difficulty

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Repairing a car that has broken down, deciding the next move in a game of chess and finding the error in a set of accounts are difficulties.

They may be difficult; but as problems they are bounded, and individuals will know when

they have found a solution. But devising policies to reduce crime or to increase the performance of the NHS is a mess; there is rarely agreement about where the problem actually lies or where improvements can best be made, and it is subject to high levels of

uncertainty. Jake Chapman

System failure. Why governments must learn to think differently.

Demos, 2002.

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The existence of significantly different perspectives on a

problem is a key characteristic of a mess, one that is difficult to

incorporate in a linear, rational model of decision or policy

making.

Jake Chapman System failure. Why governments must learn to think differently.

Demos, 2002.

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This misrepresentation of

medical science as the solid,

simple, Newtonian certainty of engineering, rather than the

fluid, complex, Einsteinian doubt of biology, has misled not only the public, but the profession itself.

Julian Tudor Hart A New Kind of Doctor, 1988.

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Uncertainty and doubt make us

safer

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We all recognize certain injuries that almost invariably cause suffering: the death or suffering of loved ones,

powerlessness, helplessness,

hopelessness, torture, the loss of a life’s work, deep betrayal, physical agony,

isolation, homelessness, memory failure, and unremitting fear. Each touches

features common to us all, yet each

contains features that must be defined in terms of a specific person at a specific

time. Eric Cassell

The Nature of Suffering and the goals of medicine, 1991

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