Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook July 18 - 24, 2019
Dry conditions along the southern Senegal, southeastern Cote d’Ivoire, Central Nigeria and coastal Nigeria-Cameroon
Heavy rainfall triggered flash flood in the southern South Sudan
1) Below-normal rainfall since June has elevated the risk of abnormal dryness. The past couple weeks, an increase of precipitation has been observed over southern Senegal. Some deficit of rain compared to the climatology is forecast for the coming week.
2) Despite a slight increase of rain over central Nigeria, the suppression of precipitation is still active in the region. Moderate to heavy rain is expected for the coming week.
3) Above-normal precipitation since June has elevated the risk for flooding in southeastern Sudan. Heavy rainfall is forecast for the coming week in the region.
4) Moderate to heavy rain has been registered in the south-east Nigeria across border with Cameroon and continuing through its coastline which helped to reduce the growing abnormal dryness installed in the region. The coming week forecasts heavy rain over 200 mm which could help attenuate significantly the drought occurring for the past two months.
5) According to RFE, the most of southern part of Cote d’Ivoire bear to the coast has almost inexistent record of rain this part week. This continuation of deficit of rain could induce a longer dryness in the area. The coming week forecasts near climatology which could possibly help the soil wetness.
Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
This past week’s moderate rainfall helped reduce dryness in the far western West Africa.
During the past seven days, an increase of precipitation and spatial distribution of seasonal precipitation was received over the coastal entrance of western Guinea and Sierra with over 300mm in some local area spreading decreasingly through southern Mali and Burkina Faso. This area was sandwich between two suppressed rainfall area of Senegal and Liberia through southern Cote d’Ivoire(Figure 1). In the eastern Africa, the coastal entrance of southeast Nigeria in border with Cameroon received moderate to heavy rain in local area through southern Chad and Central Republic of Africa. In contrast, negative anomalies has reduced in southeast Senegal but remained in the southwest. The southern Cote d’Ivoire and coastal area if the frontier between Nigeria and Cameroon show a slight enhancement of precipitation this past week which could reduce the suppression observed last two month.
During the coming week, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast along Guinea and Sierra Leon, but also from the coastline and along the border of Nigeria and Cameroon.
Nigeria forecasts above average almost all over the country including southern Niger. The Darfur is showing above- average rain expected this coming week.
Eastern Uganda is expecting less than average for the coming week.
The significantly anomalous position of the ITF during the decade June has resulted in heavy rains and considerable seasonal moisture from central to south Chad and south Sudan, Uganda through western Kenya (Figure 2) despite some decreased rainfall in central and southeastern Nigeria through Cameroon to Gabon including southern Cote d’Ivoire. The below-normal position over Senegal could explained the suppressed of rain observed in the central part of the region since the beginning of the month.
Although the continuation of rain in the eastern part of Uganda and portion of western Kenya, any flooding report has been issued since late June, the coming week predicts near seasonal precipitation. Therefore, the flooding polygon is removed over the Uganda this week. According to the soil moisture index and WRSI for the first decade of July, the soil moisture is in correlation with the cropping health index over southern Sudan, South Soudan, western Ethiopia, Uganda and some portion of northeastern Republic Democratic of Congo.
During the coming week, the western Ethiopia is expected to receive moderate rainfall. Above seasonal average is forecast over the frontier of Uganda with Democratic of Congo and South Sudan, some portion of southeast Uganda spreading to west Kenya also forecasts seasonal to moderate rainfall next week.
7-Day Satellite-Total Rainfall (mm) Valid: July 08 – 14, 2019
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
30-Day Total Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Valid: June 15 – July 14, 2019
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
