University of Groningen The fertility of migrants and their descendants from a life course perspective Wolf, Katharina

University of Groningen

The fertility of migrants and their descendants from a life course perspective

Wolf, Katharina

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The fertility of migrants and their descendants

from a life course perspective

ISBN

978-94-034-0614-5

E-book publication: 978-94-034-0616-9

Dutch translation

Translation and Correction Service, University of Groningen Language Centre

Language editing Miriam Hils

Cover design

Schmiddl in the middle, www.schmiddlinthemiddle.com

Print

Adiant Druck, Rostock

c

_{Katharina Wolf, 2018}

All rights reserved. Save exceptions stated by the law, no part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, by print, photocopying, or otherwise, without the prior written permission from the author.

The fertility of migrants and their

descendants from a life course

perspective

PhD thesis

to obtain the degree of PhD at the University of Groningen

on the authority of the Rector Magnicus Prof. E. Sterken

and in accordance with the decision by the College of Deans. This thesis will be defended in public on

Thursday 31 May 2018 at 14:30 hours

by

Katharina Wolf

born on 2 December 1987 in Staaken, Germany

Supervisors Prof. C. H. Mulder Prof. M. Kreyenfeld Assessment committee Prof. G. Andersson Prof. H. A. G. de Valk Prof. V. Mazzucato

Contents

Acknowledgements 9

Overview of the empirical chapters 11

1 Introduction 13

1.1 Motivation . . . 14

1.2 Geographical focus . . . 15

1.3 Research questions, data, and methods . . . 17

1.3.1 The fertility of migrants and non-migrants . . . 19

1.3.2 Marriage migration versus family reunication . . . 20

1.3.3 Migrant fertility and the Eastern enlargement of the EU . . . 21

1.3.4 Fertility of the 1.5 and second generation . . . 22

1.4 References . . . 24

2 The fertility of migrants and non-migrants 27 2.1 Introduction . . . 29

2.2 Ghanaian context . . . 29

2.3 Theory . . . 31

2.4 Data and methods . . . 32

2.5 Results . . . 36

2.5.1 First childbirth . . . 36

2.5.2 Completed fertility . . . 38

2.6 Discussion . . . 39

2.7 References . . . 52

3 Marriage migration vs. family reunication 57 3.1 Introduction . . . 59

3.2 Theory . . . 60

3.2.1 Turkish migration . . . 60

3.2.2 Theory . . . 61

3.3 Data and methods . . . 65

3.3.1 Data . . . 65 3.3.2 Methods . . . 67 3.3.3 Covariates . . . 67 3.4 Results . . . 69 3.4.1 Descriptives . . . 69 3.4.2 Multivariates . . . 71 3.5 Discussion . . . 76

3.6 References . . . 80

3.7 Appendix . . . 85

4 Migrant fertility & EU Eastern enlargement 91 4.1 Introduction . . . 93

4.2 Context & hypotheses . . . 94

4.2.1 Context . . . 94

4.2.2 Hypotheses . . . 96

4.3 Data and methods . . . 98

4.3.1 Data and analytical sample . . . 98

4.3.2 Variables . . . 99

4.3.3 Method and analytical strategy . . . 100

4.4 Descriptive ndings . . . 100

4.5 Multivariate ndings . . . 101

4.5.1 First birth . . . 101

4.5.2 Higher order births . . . 105

4.5.3 Migration policies and fertility of CEE migrants . . . 107

4.6 Conclusions . . . 107

4.7 References . . . 110

4.8 Appendix . . . 114

5 Fertility of the 1.5 and second generation 119 5.1 Introduction . . . 121 5.2 Theory . . . 122 5.2.1 Socialization . . . 123 5.2.2 Adaptation . . . 124 5.2.3 Composition . . . 125 5.3 Turkish migrants . . . 126

5.4 Data and methods . . . 128

5.4.1 Data . . . 128 5.4.2 Methods . . . 129 5.4.3 Explanatory variables . . . 130 5.5 Results . . . 131 5.5.1 Descriptives . . . 131 5.5.2 Multivariates . . . 133 5.6 Discussion . . . 140 5.7 References . . . 143 5.8 Appendix . . . 151

6 Discussion 157

6.1 Summary of research ndings . . . 158

6.1.1 The fertility of migrants and non-migrants . . . 158

6.1.2 Marriage migration versus family reunication . . . 159

6.1.3 Migrant fertility and the Eastern enlargement of the EU . . . 160

6.1.4 Fertility of the 1.5 and second generation . . . 161

6.2 Discussion of the ndings . . . 162

6.3 Contribution to the literature . . . 164

6.4 Reections on data . . . 166

6.5 Reections on methods . . . 170

6.6 Suggestions for future research . . . 174

6.7 Policy relevance . . . 175

6.8 References . . . 177

List of Tables

2.1 Occurrences and exposures of rst birth for female and male Ghanaian non-migrants and non-migrants. Percentage of person-years at risk and number of rst birth events . . . 35 2.2 Occurrences and exposures of rst birth for female and male Ghanaian migrants.

Percentage of person-years at risk and number of rst birth events . . . 36 2.3 Number of female and male respondents aged 40+ at interview and their number

of births by covariates . . . 42 2.4 Determinants of rst birth for women. Discrete-time hazard model. Relative risks

and statistical signicance . . . 45 2.5 Determinants of rst birth for men. Discrete-time hazard model. Relative risks

and statistical signicance . . . 46 2.6 Determinants of rst birth for female and male migrants. Discrete-time hazard

model. Relative risks and statistical signicance . . . 49 2.7 Incidence Rate Ratios of the number of children ever born for Ghanaian migrants

and return migrants compared with non-migrants . . . 50 3.1 Number of occurrences and exposures of rst birth . . . 66 3.2 Total fertility rates and mean ages at rst childbirth (and 95 % condence

inter-vals) by age at migration . . . 71 3.3 Average marginal eects (AME) on rst birth among female and male Turkish

migrants . . . 73 3.4 Average marginal eects on second birth among female and male Turkish migrants 75 3.5 Number of occurrences and exposures for second birth . . . 87 3.6 Predicted probabilities of having a rst birth, interaction eect of the duration of

stay and the couple's marriage and migration history, female Turkish migrants . . 88 3.7 Predicted probabilities of having a rst birth, interaction eect of the duration of

stay and the couple's marriage and migration history, male Turkish migrants . . . 89 4.1 Socio-demographic characteristics of analytical sample, column % . . . 102 4.2 Results from a discrete event-history model with log-log specication. Hazard

ratios of rst birth . . . 104 4.3 Results from a discrete event-history model with log-log specication. Hazard

ratios of second and third birth . . . 106 4.4 Results from a discrete event-history model with log-log specication, CEE

mi-grants only. Hazard ratios of rst, second and third birth among mimi-grants from Central and Eastern Europe . . . 108 4.5 Classication of countries by region . . . 114

4.6 Classication of European countries by EU membership (including free movement of labour) . . . 115 4.7 Share of person-years and number of birth events by covariates . . . 116 4.8 Share of person-years and number of birth among CEE migrants by legal status . 117 5.1 Determinants of the transition to rst births. Discrete-time hazard model. Average

marginal eects . . . 133 5.2 Determinants of the transition to second births. Discrete-time hazard model.

Average marginal eects . . . 134 5.3 Number of rst birth events. Non-migrant Germans, 1.5 and second generation

migrants . . . 151 5.4 Number of second birth events. Non-migrant Germans, 1.5 and second generation

migrants . . . 152 5.5 Number of third birth events. Non-migrant Germans, 1.5 and second generation

migrants . . . 152 5.6 Descriptive statistics. Number of rst birth events by migration status, education

and age . . . 153 5.7 Interaction migration background and education. Transition to rst birth.

Discrete-time hazard model (Model 2). Average marginal eects. Reference group: Second generation Turkish migrants . . . 153 5.8 Three-way interaction of migration status, education and age. Transition to rst

birth. Discrete-time hazard model. Average marginal eects. Reference group: Second generation Turkish migrants . . . 154 5.9 Interaction migration background and education. Transition to second birth.

Discrete-time hazard model (Model 5). Average marginal eects. Reference group: 2nd generation Turkish migrants . . . 154

List of Figures

1.1 Total fertility rates in post-Soviet countries, West Balkans, Turkey, and Germany 16

1.2 Total fertility rates in EU countries and Germany . . . 17

1.3 Total fertility rates in Ghana, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom . . . 17

2.1 Hazard rates of rst childbirth by time-varying migrant status . . . 43

2.2 Hazard rates of rst childbirth by level of education . . . 44

2.3 Interaction of migrant status and age. Predicted probabilities and 95% condence intervals . . . 47

2.4 Interaction of level of education and age. Predicted probabilities and 95% con-dence intervals . . . 48

2.5 Incidence Rate Ratios of the number of children for Ghanaian migrants and return migrants in comparison with non-migrants in Ghana and 95% condence intervals 51 3.1 Age-specic fertility rates by age at migration, three year moving averages . . . . 70

3.2 Predicted probabilities of having a rst child by duration of stay and marital/migration history . . . 74

3.3 Event plot, occurrences of rst births by age at migration among migrants who arrived after age 14, separated by marriage and migration history of the couple . 86 4.1 Migration to Germany by region of origin, in 1000 . . . 95

4.2 Migration from EU countries to Germany by calendar year and region of Europe, in 1000 . . . 95

4.3 Predicted rst birth probabilities (average margins) . . . 103

4.4 Survival functions to rst, second, and third birth . . . 118

5.1 Survival curves. Non-migrant Germans, 1.5 and second generation migrants. Fe-male respondents of birth cohorts 1965-1991 . . . 132

5.2 Interaction migration background and education. Transition to rst birth. Discrete-time hazard model (Model 2). Average marginal eects . . . 135

5.3 Three-way interaction of migration status, education and age. Transition to rst birth. Discrete-time hazard model. Predicted probabilities . . . 137

5.4 Interaction model of migration background and education. Transition to second birth. Average marginal eects (Model 5) . . . 139

Acknowledgements

Finishing this thesis would not have been possible without the support of many people. Spe-cial thanks go to my supervisors. Thanks, Michaela Kreyenfeld, for your generous support for so many years. You are a wonderful supervisor, who always advised me not only regarding research-related questions, but also about future career prospects and strategies. Thanks, Clara Mulder, for being a great supervisor who was always encouraging. Despite the geographical distance, you were available at all times and willing to discuss research results and future directions. I really enjoyed our enthusiastic discussions, which taught me a lot about how to conduct good research. Thank you, Frans Willekens, for making this sandwich PhD in collaboration with the University of Groningen and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) possible, for taking me into your Migration Lab at the MPIDR, and for your support during the early years of my PhD studies.

Thanks to all my colleagues and teachers of the European Doctoral School of Demography. We spent an amazing year in Barcelona, which provided me with a great start to my PhD journey. Meeting all those wonderful people helped me better understand the importance of having good networks and great friends to accompany me on this journey. I also want to thank all my col-leagues and the secretaries of the Population Research Centre at the University of Groningen. Another big thank you goes to all the current and previous colleagues of the MPIDR, especially to the IT stu and all the secretaries who support our work so generously. Thanks, dear oce mates, and particularly Anja Vatterrott, Anne-Kristin Kuhnt, Jo Hale, and Angelo Lorenti, for always creating such a great working atmosphere, for being willing to answer all sorts of stupid questions, for being open to discussing every tiny little issue, and for sharing your chocolate with me. Thank you, Sandra Krapf, for being my rst co-author, and showing me how easy it can be to write a nice research paper by forming a good team. Thanks, Elisabeth Kraus, for your many helpful comments and discussions, and for supporting and pushing the idea of creating our own research network. Ute Papenhagen, thank you for your encouraging support and all the wonderful discussions about feminism and its implications that took my mind o the thesis pressure. Thanks to all members of the MPIDR Lab on Gender Gaps in Health and Survival for adopting me socially. Thank you, Miriam Hils, for doing such a great job in edit-ing all my texts. Thanks to the University of Gronedit-ingen Language Centre for the help with the Dutch summary. And thanks to my paranymphs Nikoletta Vidra and Sergi Trias Llimós, for your emotional support throughout my stays in Groningen, and for your help in preparing the defence.

my parents: by raising me in the belief that I can achieve everything, you lay the groundwork for my success. Thanks to my friends, in particular to Pony and Ste, for many evenings of mutual words of encouragement, and for sharing the ups and downs of life in general and of academic life in particular. To my dearest twin, Lotti, thanks for always being by my side during all our important life course transitions. The biggest thanks of all goes to Jan, who taught me that so many things are more important than work and success. You did a great job in distracting my mind every now and then from the thesis struggles by teaching me fun stu such as wakeboarding, kite surng, or how to build a camper van. And, nally, I would like to thank my yet unborn son for an easy-going pregnancy. The announcement of your birth and my desire to focus only on you in the months to come helped me nd some last energy reserves to nish this thesis on time.

Overview of the empirical chapters

The four main chapters of this PhD thesis are slightly modied versions of these publications and manuscripts:

Chapter 2 Wolf, Katharina and Mulder, Clara H.: Comparing the fertility of Ghanaian mi-grants in Europe with non-mimi-grants in Ghana. (A slightly dierent version of this manuscript has been accepted for publication in Population, Space and Place)

Chapter 3

Wolf, Katharina (2016): Marriage migration versus family reunication: How does the marriage and migration history aect the timing of rst and second childbirth among Turkish immigrants in Germany? European Journal of Population 32(5): 731-759. doi:10.1007/s10680-016-9402-4.

Chapter 4

Wolf, Katharina and Kreyenfeld, Michaela: Migrant fertility in Germany and the Eastern en-largement of the EU. (Under review at an international peer-reviewed journal)

Chapter 5

Krapf, Sandra and Wolf, Katharina (2015). Persisting dierences or adaptation to German fertil-ity patterns? First and second birth behaviour of the 1.5 and second generation Turkish migrants in Germany. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 67(Supplement 1), 137-164. doi:10.1007/s11577-015-0331-8.