CHAPTER 10
A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FLICHTS
10.1 INTRODUCTION
The main objective of this chapter will be to conduct a statistical analysis. To be able to reach specific conclusions regarding the contribution of the SAAF crews, seen within the broad context of the involvement of the other allied crews who participated, it will be necessary to adjudicate and evaluate by means of statistical calculations. The following matters will be evaluated to achieve this goal: the number of containers which were dropped will be used to reach certain conclusions; the aircraft that participated and succeeded in reaching warsaw will help to evaluate the success achieved; statistical tables will indicate the percentage success obtained by every squadron which participated. In short, these statistical calculations will show the rate of success achieved by the crews who participated.
This chapter will also give a synopsis of the flights to warsaw, the crews who participated, and the success achieved by the different squadrons. This will place the role of the SAAF in the warsaw Airlift in a broader perspective.
10.2 THE INITIAL FLICHTS
on 3 August and again on 8 and 9 August 1944, aircraft of Polish Special Duties Flight 1586 were dispatched to warsaw and succeeded in dropping much needed supplies to the partisans.1 The success achieved by these sorties left Churchill with no option but to agree to even further Allied participation.
1 Daily Express, 15 August 1944: Allies drop arms in warsaw, p.4; The Times, 11 August 1944: Help for warsaw, p.3.
196 STATISTICAL INFORMATION RECARDINC THE ALLIED SQUADRONS THAT PARTICIPATED IN THE WARSAW AIRLIFT Number Aircraft Those Aircraft of Aircraft that did success that did that containers containers A i rcraft Total number Date of rype of aircraft that not achieved in not had to that were dropped Aircraft that got containe flight aircraft partici-reached reach delivering del i ver turn brought somewhere that Aircraft home dropped 1944 squadron used pating warsaw warsaw of supplies suppl i es back back home else crashed lost safely successfully 3/08 1586 PF liberator 3 3 3 3 8/08 1586 PF liberato r 3 3 3 3 9/08 1586 PF liberator 4 4 4 4 12-13/08 148 RAF Halifax 6 6 3 3 1 5 27 1 3 -14/08 31 SAAF liberator 10 7 3 2 2 8 6 13 -14/08 178 RAF liberator 10 8 6 2 24 24 1 9 72 13-14/08 148 RAF Halifax 4 2 1 2 1 18 12 4 18 14-15/08 31 SAAF liberator 7 7 7 12 3 4 60 14-15/08 178 RAF liberator 8 5 2 1 12 24 3 5 24 14-15/08 148 RAF Halifax 6 3 3 3 2 18 12 1 5 26 15-16/08 178 RAF liberator 3 2 2 1 12 3 24 15-16/08 148 RAF Halifax 3 1 1 2 24 3 12 16-17/08 31 SAAF liberator 6 6 5 1 12 3 3 60 16-17/08 178 RAF liberator 3 1 1 12 1 2 1 2 16-17/08 1586PF liberator 9 2 4 5 12 10-11/09 31 SAAF liberator 3 3 2 12 3 24 10-11/09 34 SAAF Liberator 3 2 1 2 24 10-11/09 148 RAF Halifax 4 2 1 12 1 3 12 10-11/09 1586PF liberator 5 3 2 18/09 Bth
us
Air 817 110 110 110 0 0 0 1 109 640 P51 64 64 64 0 0 64 They did Fighters carry containers 18-19/09 148 RAF Halifax 5 1 4 1 5 12 21-22/09 31 SAAF Liberator 2 2 2 2 24 21-22/09 34 SAAF liberator 3 3 27 3 9 21-22/09 148 RAF Halifax 5 2 3 2 36 12 12---It was indicated in chapter 4 of this thesis that the Allied forces commenced on 12 August with sorties to warsaw.2 Other squadrons that participated were 178 Squadron and 148 Squadron RAF, 31 Squadron and 34 Squadron SAAF, and aircraft from Polish special Duties Flight.3 Later, in september 1944, the us 8th Air Force also took part.
on the night of 12-13 August, six aircraft of 148 Squadron RAF also undertook flights to warsaw.4 Three aircraft, a Halifax 8 Mk5 and two Halifax 8 Mklls succeeded in dropping supplies on the target area in Warsaw.s Three other Halifaxes did reach warsaw but were not able to find the target area, and had to return without delivering supplies.s
10.3 THE FLICHTS OF 13-14 AUCUST
on the night of 13-14 August, a total of 24 aircraft participated in sorties to warsaw. As will be indicated in table 1, this represents the only sortie to warsaw where the RAF succeeded in dropping more containers than the south Africans.
The SAAF succeeded in dropping 40% of the total containers dropped on warsaw on this occasion. Although ten Liberators of 31 Squadron SAAF took off, only seven aircraft succeeded in reaching warsaw.7<Table 2> The other three aircraft returned after a flight of several hours. one of them, captain I.J.M. Odendaal's aircraft, reached cracow, then turned back because of navigational problems and poor weather conditions. Another, Captain F.C. serfontein's aircraft, returned for the same reasons after they had already succeeded in reaching the carpathian Mountains, on the Polish border. Major s.s. urrv, the pilot of the third Liberator that had to turn back, experienced
2 British Ministry of Defence, CLondonl, Air Historical Branch, File 13: Air supply for warsaw,
n.d.
3 British Ministry of Defence, CLondonl, Air Historical Branch, File 13: Air supply for warsaw, n.d.
4 Details of these flights are discussed in chapter 4 of this thesis.
5 British Ministry of Defence, CLondonl, Air Historical Branch, File 13: Air supply for warsaw, n.d.
6 Public Record Office, CLondonl, Air 27, Piece 996, pp.2-4.
technical problems which developed in number three engine, shortly after take off.
Two of the Liberators that succeeded in reaching Warsaw did not return to their home base. Lieutenant R.R. Klette, the pilot of Liberator EW105 G, made a forced landing on the warsaw airfield, which was not in use at the time. The other, Liberator EW138 K, with Lieutenant R.C.W. Burgess as pilot, made a forced landing at Kiev in the Ukraine.s
During these sorties, 60 containers were dropped on the target area. <Table 1> The aircraft flew a total of 76 hours 48 minutes.9
Ten Liberators of 178 Squadron RAF also participated in the operations to warsaw on 13-14 August 1944_10 <Table 2> They all started their flights from Brindisi in Italy. Although eight Liberators reached warsaw, only six aircraft dropped their containers successfully. Two Liberators were unable to identify the target area and they brought their containers back to base.
Three Liberators did not reach warsaw. The one, Liberator EW264, experienced navigational difficulties and the other, Liberator KG942, had to turn back because of extremely bad weather. After it was decided to jettison the supplies, they returned to base. The third Liberator, EV961, failed to return to base altogether. Another two aircraft were severely damaged by anti-aircraft fire by the time they got home. one of the aircraft did not land at Amendola like the rest, but returned to its home base at Brindisi.11
178 squadron dropped a total of 72 containers on the target areas in warsaw during these flights. <Table 1> Twenty-four containers were dropped off the target area and 24 containers were brought back home. A total of 94 hours and 33 minutes was flown.
Reports received later indicated that 106 of the 132 containers dropped by these two squadrons on 13-14 August, were received by the Partisans.12 148
8 D DOCs, Pretoria, SAAF, war Diary, container 44, File 1, pp.54233-54242. 9 Details of these flights are discussed in chapter 5 of this thesis.
10 Details of these flights are discussed in chapter 5 of this thesis.
11 Public Record Office, <London!, Air 27, Piece 996, p.9. 12 Public Record Office, <London!, Air 27, Piece 996, p.4.
squadron RAF provided seven Halifaxes to drop supplies to the partisan groups during these first flights to warsaw13 <Table 2L
Because three of these aircraft were so severely damaged, they could not participate. Only two of the remaining four, Halifri»< JP295 P and Halifax JN926 o, reached warsaw and dropped their supplies successfully on the target area. one aircraft had to return to base due to technical problems and the other one could not locate the target area and returned to its home base and brought back all its containers. Nevertheless, the squadron succeeded in dropping a total of 18 containers successfully on the target areas during this flight. Twelve containers were dropped off the target areas, and 24 containers were brought back to base. These aircraft flew a total of 33 hours 59.minutes. A grand total of 150 containers was dropped on the target area in warsaw on the night of 13-14 August 1944 <Table 1L 178 Squadron RAF succeeded in dropping 12 more containers than 31 Squadron SAAF. They dropped 72 containers and 31 Squadron dropped 60 containers. 148 Squadron RAF dropped only 18 containers. The three squadrons flew a total of 205 hours 23 minutes.
Table 1: NUMBER OF CONTAINERS DROPPED DURINC THE FIRST OPERATION
Squadron Number of Percentage of
containers dropped containers dropped
178 72 48% 31 60 40% 148 18 12% Total 150 100% 13-14 AUGUST 1944 A TOTAL OF 150 CONTAINERS 31 Squadron 60 (40%) 148 Squadron 18 (12%)
13 Details of these flights are discussed in chapters of this thesis.
178 Squadron 72 (48%)
A total of 24 aircraft participated in the flights to warsaw, but only 17 reached their target <Table 2>. This represents a success rate of 71%.
Table 2: NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW DURINC THE FIRST OPERATION
squadron Number of aircraft Number of aircraft that participated that reached warsaw
178 10 8 31 10 7 148 4 2 Total 24 17 ~~~~~~~~~~~~==~~~~====~---, 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 o~-__._ 13-14 AUGUST 1944
AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW
I
I ,-CI-1i-ota-l - -. I • Successful 148 squadron_j
L _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ 178 squadron 31 squadron10.4 THE FLIGHTS OF 14·15 AUCUST
on 14-15 August 21 aircraft, seven Liberators of 31 squadron SAAF, eight Liberators of 178 Squadron RAF, and six Halifax aircraft of 148 Squadron RAF, were made available by the Allied forces, to participate in the sorties to warsaw <Table 4).
The flights commenced from Foggia, in Italy, at approximately 19:30 on 14 August. some of the Liberators of 31 Squadron SAAF were severely damaged when they returned from Warsaw. The last Liberator14 that returned to its home base at Celene at approximately 07:00 on the morning of 15 August, was
so severely damaged that it had to make a forced landing without a rudder control and flaps.1s
During this operation, SAAF crews succeeded in dropping 54,5% of the total containers. <Table 3>
Although all seven Liberators of 31 squadron succeeded in reaching warsaw, only four Liberators returned to Italy. Three Liberators and their crews did not return.
Liberator KG858 H delivered its supplies successfully on the target area and then returned home safely. Liberator KG941
a
delivered its supplies in the vicinity of zone B and flew home safely. When Liberator KG875 D dropped its supplies on warsaw, 11 parachutes opened and landed safely. one parachute, however, stuck in the side doors of the aircraft and the supplies tumbled down. This aircraft also arrived home safely. Liberator KG872v
and its crew had a narrow escape. After delivering its supplies between the defence positions, the aircraft was hit by artillery fire and severely damaged. The Pilot, captain W.E. Senn, was wounded in the thigh. In spite of the pain he suffered during the journey back home, the aircraft returned safely, although a forced landing had to be made.The three other Liberators and their crews were less fortunate and did not return to their home base. Liberator KG939 A was hit by anti-aircraft fire and crashed approximately 24 kilometres south of warsaw. Three of the crew members- Lieutenant R.G. Hamilton, sergeant H. Hudson and sergeant L. Maves were killed. Liberator KG871 F was engaged by anti-aircraft fire from the burning city and the entire crew was killed when the aircraft crashed near Golidzinow. All the crew members of Liberator KG836 c also died when their aircraft crashed in the city centre, near the square, after one of its wings had struck a roof.
31 Squadron dropped a total of 60 containers on the target areas. <Table 3> Twelve containers were dropped elsewhere. No containers were brought back home. The aircrews flew a total of approximately 57 hours.
Eight Liberators of 178 Squadron RAF participated in the flights to warsaw on 14-15 August <Table 4> and succeeded in delivering 21,8% of the total supplies delivered.16 <Table 3> The flights commenced at approximately 19:45 on the 14th and the last aircraft returned at approximately 08:04 the next morning. Two Liberators, KG942 and KG933, dropped their containers successfully on the demarcated dropping zones. One other, Liberator EV839, dropped its containers on the outskirts of the town. The crew of Liberator KG938 was not sure of the exact area where the containers landed. one aircraft, Liberator EW233, could not identify the dropping zones and brought back its supplies. Three aircraft of 178 Squadron, Liberators EW264, KG873 and KG929, crashed. Three members of the SAAF were crew members in two of the three Liberators of 178 squadron RAF shot down that night. They were Lieutenant R.L. Lawson, the pilot, and his navigator, Lieutenant A.D. D'Equille Scott, both from cape Town. They were crew members of Liberator KG828. The other south African, Lieutenant K. Fairweather, was a crew member of Liberator KG873 and died when this Liberator crashed.
178 Squadron supplied a considerable quantity of supplies to the partisans. Twenty-four containers were dropped on the target area, 24 were dropped off the target area, and 12 containers were brought back to base. The aircrews
flew a total of 53 hours 55 minutes.
Six aircraft of 148 Squadron RAF participated in the flights to warsaw on 14-15 August.17 They contributed 23,6% to the total effort. Three Halifaxes, JN897 T, JD319 G and JP254 D, reached Warsaw and dropped 26 containers on the target area. Halifax JN926 was presumed lost because it did not reach warsaw and did not return home either. Halifax EB179 0 reached the coast of Yugoslavia but had to turn back to base because of technical problems, such as excessive petrol consumption and the aircraft's inability to increase height. Halifax JN859 B had already reached the mountains at Yugoslavia when it also had to turn back because of technical problems. The crews of 148 Squadron flew approximately 34 hours.
16 Details of these flights are discussed in chapter 6 of this thesis. 17 Details of these flights are discussed in chapter 6 of this thesis.
During the sorties on 14-15 August a total of 110 containers was dropped <Table 3>. The total flying time was approximately 145 hours. 31 Squadron supplied 60 containers of the 110 dropped. 178 Squadron supplied 24 containers and 148 Squadron supplied 26 containers (Table 3>. 31 Squadron supplied 54,5% of the containers, 178 squadron supplied 21,8% and 148 Squadron 23,6%. The south Africans succeeded in dropping 32,7% more than 178 Squadron and 30,9% more than 148 Squadron.
Table 3: squadron 178 31 148 Total
NUMBER OF CONTAINERS DROPPED DURINC THE FLICHTS ON
14-15 AUCUST Number of containers dropped 24 60 26 110 Percentage of containers dropped 21,8% 54,5% 23,6% 100% 14-15 AUGUST 1944 A TOTAL OF 110 CONTAINERS 148 Squadron 26 (23,6%) 31 Squadron 60 (54,5%) 178 Squadron 24 (21,8%)
A total of 21 aircraft participated in this operation but only 15 aircraft
succeeded in reaching warsaw <Table 4>. This represented a success rate of 75%.
Table 4: squadron 178 31 148 Total
NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW DURINC THE FLIGHTS ON 14-15 AUCUST Number of aircraft that participated 8 7 6 21 Number of aircraft that reached warsaw
5
7 3
15
14-15 AUGUST 1944
AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW
178 squadron 31 squadron 148 squadron
CJTotal • Successful
The fact that 31 Squadron dropped 32,7% more than 178 Squadron and 30,9%
more than 148 Squadron proved once more that the SAAF played a major role
in the supply flights. Results received a few days later indicated that seven
complete drops were received by the partisans on the night of 14-15 August.1a
During the first two large-scale operations to warsaw the Allied forces lost a
total of 10 aircraft. <Table 5) Eight aircraft crashed and two aircraft were so
severely damaged they had to land somewhere, away from their home base.
31 Squadron SAAF lost five Liberators. Four Liberators of 178 Squadron crashed
and one Halifax of 148 Squadron was lost. <Table 5) This represented an enormous loss to these relatively small squadrons.
Table 5: AIRCRAFT LOST DURINC THE FIRST TWO OPERATIONS FROM 13-15 AUCUST 1944
squadron Total number of aircraft Aircraft lost
178 21 4
31 17 5
148 13 1
Total 51 10
10.5 THE FLIGHTS OF 15-16 AUCUST
on the morning of 15 August, the crews of the squadrons were informed that from now on 31 Squadron would operate on alternate nights, and therefore it was decided that only aircraft from 148 Squadron and 178 Squadron RAF would
Three Liberators of 178 Squadron RAF flew sorties from Brindisi to warsaw19 <Table 7>. Two of them, Liberators KG838 and KG933, succeeded in dropping all
their containers successfully to the partisans in warsaw. one aircraft had to turn back because its number three engine became unserviceable. 178
squadron dropped 24 containers (Table 6>. They flew a total of 23 hours 35
minutes.
Three crews of 148 Squadron (Table 7> flew from Brindisi but only one aircraft,
Halifax JP295, succeeded in reaching warsaw and in dropping the containers over the target area2o (Table 6>. Two aircraft, Halifax JP254 D and Halifax JD319
G, had to return to base due to technical problems. Altogether 12 containers were dropped. Time flown was 20 hours 49 minutes.
A total of 36 containers was dropped <Table 6>. 178 Squadron dropped 66,7%
and 148 Squadron dropped 33,3%.
Table 6: TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTAINERS DROPPED DURINC THE FLICHTS ON
15·16 AUCUST squadron 178 148 Total Number of containers dropped 24 12 36 Percentage of containers dropped 66,7% 33,3% 100% 15-16 AUGUST 1944 A TOTAL OF 36 CONTAINERS 148 Squadron 12 (33,3%)
19 Details of these flights are discussed in chapter 6 of this thesis.
20 Details of these flights are discussed in chapter 6 of this thesis.
178 Squadron 24 (66,7%)
only three of the six Liberators that participated in sorties on 15-16 August, succeeded in reaching warsaw <Table 7>. This represented a success rate of 50%. Table 7: TOTAL NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW DURINC
THE FLICHTS ON 1 5-16 AUCUST ~
squadron Number of aircraft that participated 178 3 148 3 Total 6 Number of aircraft that reached warsaw 2 1 3 15-16 AUGUST 1944
AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW
178 squadron 148 squadron
10.6 THE FLICHTS OF 16-17 AUGUST
a
Total • SuccessfulOn 16-17 August, 18 aircraft of the Allied forces took part in the warsaw Airlift <Table 9>. Although it was decided on the 15th August to use the squadrons of
the SAAF and RAF only on alternative nights to fly sorties to warsaw, they were,
nevertheless, used simultaneously again. Six Liberators of 31 Squadron SAAF
flew from Celene and they all succeeded in reaching Warsaw.21 Liberator KG938
reached warsaw and dropped the 12 metal containers just north of the target
area. Liberators KG974 J and KG958 R also reached Warsaw, dropped their
supplies on target and returned home safely.
Three of the aircraft that reached Warsaw did not return to their home base. Liberator EW248 P exploded in the air after being hit by anti-aircraft fire. All the crew members were killed, except for Lieutenant Groenewald, who miraculously survived. Liberator KG941 0 was shot down near Kalvaria, in the vicinity of Cracow, after successfully delivering its supplies. The crew were all killed. Liberator KG161 w was shot down in the vicinity of Lysagora in the south of Poland. The crew were all killed. 31 Squadron dropped 60 containers on the target area during these sorties <Table 8>. Twelve containers were dropped off the target area. Time flown was approximately 47 hours.
Table 8: squadron 178 31 1586 PF Total
TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTAINERS DROPPED DURINC THE FLICHTS ON 16-17 AUCUST Number of containers dropped 12 60 12 84 Percentage of containers dropped 14,3% 71,4% 14,3% 100% 16-17 AUGUST 1944 A TOTAL OF 84 CONTAINERS 1586 Polish Right 12 (14,3%) 31 Squadron 60 (71,4%) 178 Squadron 12 (14,3%)
Three Liberators of 178 Squadron RAF were detailed to participate in the flights to warsaw on 16-17 August22 (Table 9). The first flight left from Brindisi at 19:33. only one Liberator, EW233, succeeded in dropping all the containers over the target area. Liberator KG938 had to return to home base because of electrical trouble and Liberator KG933 did not return. It was presumed that Liberator
KG933 was shot down. Twelve containers were dropped on the target area and
·12 were brought back to base <Table 8). Time flown was approximately 20
hours.
a.) on 16-17 August, nine Liberators of Polish Special Duties Flight 1586 took part in
the warsaw Airlift <Table 9L Two aircraft succeeded in reaching warsaw and
dropped all their containers. seven aircraft could not reach warsaw and four
crashed. Only 12 containers were dropped over the target area <Table 8>.
Although 18 aircraft participated in the flights of 16-17 August, the south
Africans were the only ones who achieved a 100% success rate. All six aircraft
of 31 Squadron reached warsaw <Table 9>. Only one of the three Liberators of
178 squadron reached warsaw and only two of the nine aircraft of Polish
Special Duties Flight 1586 succeeded in reaching Warsaw <Table 9>. In total, nine
aircraft succeeded in reaching warsaw, which represents a success rate of SO%.
Table 9: squadron 178 31 1586 PF Total 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
TOTAL NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW DURINC THE FLICHTS ON 16-17 AUCUST
Number of aircraft that participated 3 6 9 18 Number of aircraft that reached warsaw
1 6 2
9
16-17 AUGUST 1944
AIRCRAFT THAT REACHED WARSAW
oTotal
• Successful
1
0-l- -
