Products and Services for Disaster Mitigation and Economic
Enhancement
Edward O’Lenic, Chief Climate Operations Branch
NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center Camp Springs, Maryland
ed.olenic@noaa.gov
301-763-8000, ext 7528
O p e r a t i o n a l l y p r e d i c t , m o n i t o r , a n d a s s e s s s h o r t - t e r m c l i m a t e v a r i a b i l i t y , f r o m b e l o w t h e s e a s u r f a c e t o t h e l a n d , l o w e r a t m o s p h e r e , a n d s t r a t o s p h e r e W o r k w i t h u s e r s t o m i t i g a t e l o s s e s a n d r e a l i z e g a i n s t h r o u g h i n c r e a s e d u n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d p r e d i c t i o n o f t h e g l o b a l c l i m a t e s y s t e m , e m p h a s i z i n g e n h a n c e d r i s k s o f e x t r e m e e v e n t s
E m p l o y a n d / o r a d v a n c e r e s e a r c h t o i m p r o v e t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f s h o r t - t e r m c l i m a t e v a r i a t i o n s
C l i m a t e P r e d i c t i o n C e n t e r
N a t i o n a l C e n t e r s f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r e d i c t i o n N a t i o n a l W e a t h e r S e r v i c e
N a t i o n a l O c e a n i c a n d A t m o s p h e r i c A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
h t t p : //w w w . c p c . n c e p . n o a a . g o v
M i s s i o n :
Nation al Ce n ters fo r E n v ir o n m e n ta l Pred iction
tio Na
na l W e a th e r S ice erv
Mission
Summary
• Climate forecasting, for any location, requires:
– A global ocean-land-atmosphere approach which begins with monitoring.
– Monitoring, coupled with long time series of ocean and atmospheric data permit us to diagnose climate system behavior and develop prediction schemes.
– Science and user input drive product development.
– Prediction techniques use physical/dynamical models and statistical prediction techniques to predict the
future behavior of the climate system.
WEATHER vs. CLIMATE
Weather/climate links - ENSO
- Teleconnections - Extreme events - Tropical storms - Drought/Floods - Climate/Weather Monitoring
Applied Research, Diagnostics and Forecast Tools Collaborators: EMC, CDC, GFDL, IRI
Dynamical/statistical models - Tools Evaluation
- Real-Time Diagnostics - Model Simulations - Ensembles
- Verification Decadal Variability
- PDO - AO/NAO
- Global Warming
Intra-seasonal Variability - Tropical MJO
- Blocking
- AO/NAO/NPO/PNA
Seasonal Extended Range
Climate Prediction Center Forecast System Schematic
Frequency: High Interannual Low-
Frequency:
Trend
Threats Assessment U.S.
6-10 Day Week Two
Monthly
International Threats
Forecast Process Schematic
Dynamical Model Forecasts
Recent observations
Historical observations
Verifications / Statistical Tools
Downscaling, Analogs, Composites
•Non-public web pages, automated databases
•Forecaster-created or automated products
•Dissemination to public
Forecast tools web page
Operations Concept for Ocean/Atmosphere Model
• NCEP currently uses dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere models in combination with statistical models to produce
seasonal outlooks with ½ to 5 ½ month leads and, to a lesser extent, monthly outlooks with ½ month lead. Enhanced model operations which include increased numbers of ensemble
members, more frequent model runs and enhanced capability to include the influence of within-season variations in SST and OLR will be used to:
- Produce more highly resolved distributions of predicted variables,
- Produce forecasts which increasingly and more appropriately reflect the influence of intra-seasonal variability on middle latitude climate,
- Produce improved week 2 and monthly outlooks and develop and implement new outlook products for the week 3-4 period.
- Develop and implement new products to predict seasonal
variations in frequency of extreme events, primarily during
ENSO.
Detailed operations concept for ocean-atmosphere model
Currently, coupled dynamical model forecasts are one of several tools used in preparing long-range outlooks. NCEP’s model is run to produce one set of
ensemble forecasts per month during the first week of the month. This is done in a two-tiered system, in which first, an ensemble of 16 ocean forecasts are created using a coupled GCM. The average of these is used as the official SST forecast.
This SST forecast is then used as the lower boundary for an AGCM to create a set of 20 atmosphere ensemble members. The forecasts are run out to 9 months. A 20-year run of the AGCM is created each month. The seasonal means from this run are used as the climatology to create anomaly maps from each of the
ensemble members. The means of these anomaly maps are used as the forecast tools which are presented to the forecasters.
The forecasters use the NCEP model tools, together with other model tools to
subjectively create outlook maps of the probability of monthly and seasonal mean
temperature and total precipitation category.
1 . C r o p / S t o c k D a m a g e 2 . E n e r g y S a v i n g s
3 . F a m i n e 4 . F i r e s
5 . F i s h e r i e s D i s r u p t i o n 6 . H e a l t h R i s k s
7 . H u m a n F a t a l i t i e s
8 . P e s t s I n c r e a s e d 9 . P r o p e r t y D a m a g e 1 0 . T o u r i s m D e c r e a s e d
1 1 . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P r o b l e m s 1 2 . S o c i a l D i s r u p t i o n s
1 3 . W i l d l i f e F a t a l i t i e s 1 4 . W a t e r R a t i o n i n g
I m p a c t s f r o m 1 9 9 7 /9 8 E l N i n o
1
1 8
1 0 1 1 1 3
64
1
4
6
1 0 1 1
1 4 3
4 7
1 1 1 2
1
5
1
4 1 41 1 1
1 4 4 3 6 8 9
9 9
1 0 1 3 1 2
5 1
1
4
6 9
9
1 1
7 8 9 1 9
4 7
8 9 1 3 1 1
5 2
~
El Nino Global Impacts
M a j o r N a t u r a l D i s a s t e r s R e l a t e d t o 1 9 9 8 / 9 9 L a N i a
6 0 N 5 0 N 4 0 N 3 0 N 2 0 N 1 0 N E Q 1 0 S 2 0 S 3 0 S 4 0 S 5 0 S 6 0 S
0 6 0 E 1 2 0 E 1 8 0 1 2 0 W 6 0 W 0
S S
S S S
S S
F F F F F F
F
F F F
F F F F
F F
F F F F F F
F
F F
F F
F
H
HH H
D D
S S t o r m s , H a i l , T o r n a d o e s
F F l o o d s , L a n d s l i d e s
H H u r r i c a n e s , T y p h o o n s
D D r o u g h t
F l o o d 5 5 , 3 6 0 $ 1 . 3 B
S t o r m s 1 6 , 8 6 3 $ 1 7 . 0 B
D r o u g h t s 4 0 4 - . -
C o l d W a v e s 4 0 9 $ 1 . 3 B V i c t i m s I n s u r e d
L o s s e s
La Nina Global Impacts
Monthly and Multi-Seasonal Outlooks
Temperature
Monthly and Multi-Seasonal Outlooks
Precipitation
Probability of Exceedance:
June – August 2001 Cooling Degree Days in
U. S. Climate Region 45 (western Kansas)
Extended Range Outlooks
Outlooks for average temperature and precipitation for 6-10-, 8-14-days
Degree Day Assessment
The CPC weekly Degree Day Assessment discusses the Heating Degree Day (HDD) or Cooling Degree Day (CDD) outlook for the coming week, and reviews temperature and degree day statistics for the past week and the heating season (November - March) or cooling season (May - September) to date. This Assessment can assist energy managers in anticipating and analyzing fuel demand, because degree days quantitatively reflect the public need for energy to heat and cool businesses and dwellings.
The Last 2000/01 heating season discussion, issued March 19, 2001, indicated that the slow seasonal decline in HDD’s should generally continue March 19 – 25, with increases in 7-day totals (relative to last week) restricted to the Southeast, northern Gulf Coast, and middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures should average below normal from central and southern Texas eastward and northeastward through the south Atlantic, central Appalachian, and southern mid-Atlantic regions. In contrast, above-normal temperatures should prevail for most areas from the High Plains to the West Coast, except for most of Washington and Oregon. However, HDD totals should generally be within 60 of normal nationally, except in the northwestern Great Basin, where totals are expected to be 60 to 90 below normal.
Climate Forecast Use -- 1997/98 El Nino
Mitigation:
Six month advanced warning resulted in $0.5 billion to $1.0 billion savings in California
Flood insurance sales increased in California and the Southeast
Drought impacts anticipated in Hawaii and other U. S. Pacific Islands
Survey of 87 managers in agribusiness, water resources, utilities, emergency response, etc.**:
47% used the forecasts; another 34% seriously considered usage
o Only 32% used forecasts during 1996/97
o Forecasts used for both planning and operational decisions
o 66% of those using the forecasts reported beneficial outcomes
Power utilities were biggest users
o 64% used the forecasts; 70% will consider climate forecasts in future decisions
o Forecast usage saved Michigan and Iowa utility companies $250 million
**
Uses of Climate Outlooks
Linking Climate and Weather
Provides weekly status of ongoing drought conditions
Consolidates information from numerous federal and state agencies
Combines several key drought indices (Palmer, soil moisture, precipitation on several time scales, etc.) with subjective input from local and regional experts
Serves as a universal starting point for
information access, from which users can delve into more detail
Gives the outlook for
drought conditions based upon most recent long-lead precipitation outlook.
Drought Status and Prediction
•PROBABILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
Heat Wave / Heat Index Outlooks
ENSO Diagnostics
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by:CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP August 3, 2001
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase in the central equatorial Pacific during July 2001. Since February 2001 SSTs and SST anomalies have steadily increased in the central equatorial Pacific Niño 4 region (Fig. 1) rising to their highest levels since the 1997-98 warm (El Niño) episode. By late July equatorial SST anomalies between 0.5°C and 1°C were observed between 165°E and 135°W (Fig. 2). Over the past two years there has been a gradual expansion of the area of positive equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies into the central Pacific and a gradual decrease in the strength and areal extent of the negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. This evolution is consistent with the decay of the subsurface thermal structure that characterizes the mature phase of cold episodes and the development of conditions usually found just prior to warm episodes. Accompanying this evolution has been a gradual transition from negative to positive SST anomalies between 160°E and 130°W.
Positive SST anomalies are likely to continue in the equatorial Pacific during the remainder of 2001 and into the first half of 2002. This assessment is consistent with most coupled model and statistical model predictions that indicate warmer than normal oceanic conditions through early 2002. The impacts that this warming will have on global temperature and
precipitation patterns depend to a large degree on its intensity. At the moment, there is considerable spread in the predicted SST anomalies, with most predictions indicating a weak or moderate warm episode (El Niño) by the end of 2001 and the beginning of 2002.
Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and the equatorial subsurface temperature structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts fo the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Forecast Forum.
