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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook May 2 – May 8, 2019

Little in the way of rainfall was observed in the region during the past week.

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Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

After a few weeks of rainy conditions, a dry weather pattern has returned to the region.

During the past week, very little rainfall was observed in Central America. Only a few light showers (<10mm) were picked up by satellite rainfall estimates, with some greater amounts in parts of Costa Rica and Panama. This was a substantial change from the wetter conditions many areas observed during early April. Despite the improvement to moisture conditions in early April, rainfall deficits since early March are notable across Guatemala and El Salvador.

Some of the largest negative rainfall anomalies of 50-100mm are found in central and southwestern Guatemala. While there are rainfall surpluses visible in northern Honduras most of the rest of Central America is running near or below average since March 1st. The onset of rains earlier in the month was favorable for fire weather and early Primera season cropping activities. However, abnormally warm temperatures throughout the region have been accelerating soil moisture depletion as rainfall has recently become more erratic. Analysis of remotely sensed vegetation health indices shows unfavorable ground conditions in many regions of Central America. Analysis of trends reveals improving vegetation health in Honduras and Belize stemming from rains earlier in the month and degrading vegetation health in Southern Guatemala.

The GFS model forecasts rainy weather to return to the region during the outlook period. Widespread moderate rain is expected with heavier amounts likely in southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras, Costa Rica, and along the eastern coast of Nicaragua. 7-day totals could exceed 100mm in these areas. This could be the first substantial rainfall of the year for a few parts of Honduras and many parts of Nicaragua.

Week 1 Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH climatology (mm) May 2 – May 8, 2019

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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