• No results found

Moral  Hazard  Effects  of   Deposit  Insurance  Policies  on   Bank  Solvency  in  the  EU-­‐28

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Moral  Hazard  Effects  of   Deposit  Insurance  Policies  on   Bank  Solvency  in  the  EU-­‐28"

Copied!
16
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)

 

Deposit  Insurance  Policies  on  

Bank  Solvency  in  the  EU-­‐28

 

 

 

Author:   Leonard  A.J.  Terwisscha  van  Scheltingaa,  §    

Supervisor:     Dr.  Lammertjan  Damb  

 

a  MSc  Economics,  MSc  Finance,  University  of  Groningen,  the  Netherlands    

b  University  of  Groningen  and  CIBIF,  the  Netherlands  

   

T  H  E  S  I  S      I  N  F  O        A  B  S  T  R  A  C  T  

  Date:   26th  of  June  2014     JEL  classification:   F36   G21   G28     Keywords:   Deposit  insurance   Bank  solvency   Coverage            

Deposit  insurance  is  a  strong  medicine  to  prevent  bank  runs   with  moral  hazard  as  a  side  effect.  This  paper  identifies  this   moral   hazard   effect   for   EU-­‐28   countries   by   estimating   the   relation   between   different   policies   of   deposit   insurance   coverage   on   solvency   of   banks.   A   panel   data   model   with   data   between   1998   and   2013   shows   that,   on   average,   a   1   unit   increase   in   deposit   insurance   coverage   to   GDP   per   capita   ratio   leads   to   a   reduction   in   bank   solvency   of   1.8%.   This   effect   is   stronger   for   deposit   insurance   systems   with   full  coverage.    

 

   

Course  code  MSc  Economics:  EBM877A20.  Course  code  MSc  Finance:  EBM866B20  

(2)

1.  Introduction    

This   paper   estimates   the   impact   of   deposit   insurance   on   bank   solvency   in   the   EU.   Deposit   insurance   is   a   guarantee   to   reimburse   deposits   of   depositors   whose   bank   is   unable  to  meet  its  debt  obligations.  It  is  either  explicit  or  implicit.  A  country  has  explicit   deposit   insurance   if   a   contractual   obligation   is   present   in   which   depositors   are   (fully)   reimbursed   when   a   bank   is   unable   to   meet   its   debt   obligations.   With   implicit   deposit   insurance   a   contractual   obligation   is   not   present.   However,   when   a   considerable   banking  crisis  occurs,  governments  will  ultimately  bail  out  banks  to  save  their  financial   system.  In  this  paper  the  focus  is  on  explicit  deposit  insurance;  therefore  I  further  refer   to  this  as  ‘deposit  insurance’.    

 

Deposit  insurance  is  a  popular  financial  safety  net  that  many  countries  introduce.  The   main   reason   is   that   deposit   insurance   can   prevent   bank   runs   (Diamond   and   Dybvig,   1983).   Furthermore,   it   is   also   appealing   for   politicians   because   it   protects   small   depositors   without   directly   affecting   the   government   budget.   Furthermore,   external   pressure  from  multiple  institutions  increases  the  chance  of  adopting  deposit  insurance   (Demirguc-­‐Kunt,   Kane   and   Leaven,   2006):   the   World   Bank   endorses   it,   IMF’s   crisis   management  recommends  it  since  the  1990s  (Garcia,  1999)  and  the  EU  obliges  it  to  its   member  states  as  of  1994  (European  Commission,  1994).    Moreover,  during  or  just  after   a   financial   crisis,   countries   might   introduce   a   deposit   insurance   system   as   part   of   a   rescue  plan  to  save  their  financial  system  (Demirguc-­‐Kunt,  Kane  and  Leaven,  2006).    

During   the   last   decades,   the   abundance   of   motives   for   introducing   deposit   insurance   translated  into  a  considerable  increase  in  the  amount  of  deposit  insurance  systems.  For   example,   between   1980   and   2003   the   number   of   countries   with   a   deposit   insurance   system   increased   from   20   to   87   (Demirgüç-­‐Kunt   et   al,   2005).   This   increase   is   also   present  in  the  28  countries  that  nowadays  form  the  EU:  from  14  countries  at  the  start  of   the   EU   in   1992,   to   all   28   countries   as   of   2003,   when   Malta   introduced   their   deposit   insurance  system.    

 

(3)

financial   crisis   between   2007   and   2009.   The   EU   2009   directive   set   new   goals   with   respect  to  the  coverage,  raising  the  previous  coverage  of  20,000  euros  of  the  (outdated)   EU  1994  directive  to  50,000  euros  for  the  end  of  2009  and  100,000  euros  for  the  end  of   2010.  This  led  to  a  recovery  of  confidence  in  banks  among  depositors.  Apparently  the   initial  amount  was  too  low.  

 

Despite  its  positive  features,  deposit  insurance  comes  with  moral  hazard  as  a  side  effect.   An   unintended   consequence   of   increasing   coverage   is   that   it   reduces   the   incentive   of   depositors   to   monitor   banks.   For   the   pre-­‐crisis   coverage   of   20,000   euros   in   the   EU,   a   rational   depositor   who   intends   to   stall   80,000   euros   at   a   bank   will   internalize   the   riskiness  off  a  bank  into  the  decision  on  which  bank  to  choose.  However,  after  the  raise   in  coverage  to  100,000  euros,  the  depositor  will  not  internalize  the  riskiness  of  a  bank   anymore,  but  shifts  focus  more  towards  the  interest  rate  that  a  bank  offers.  This  leads   the   depositor   to   choose   for   a   higher   interest-­‐paying   bank   engaged   in   riskier   investments,  rather  than  a  lower  interest-­‐paying  bank  engaged  in  safer  investments.  To   stay  competitive,  the  low  interest-­‐paying  bank  needs  to  increase  interest  rates  resulting   in  a  new  equilibrium  in  which  interest  rates  are  higher.  To  repay  the  increased  interest   rates,   banks   need   to   allocate   more   funds   towards   higher   yielding   but   riskier   investments.   This   has   a   decreasing   effect   on   bank   solvency:   return   on   assets   becomes   less   stable,   leading   to   a   decrease   in   the   degree   to   which   a   bank   is   able   to   meet   its   obligations.   Therefore,   the   resulting   new   equilibrium   with   higher   coverage   is   more   fragile  and  riskier  compared  to  the  former  equilibrium  with  lower  coverage.  

 

I  use  a  panel  data  model  to  identify  the  effects  of  deposit  insurance  on  bank  solvency  in   the  EU-­‐28.  I  regress  the  z-­‐score,  which  is  a  solvency  measure  for  banks,  with  different   forms  of  deposit  insurance  coverage.  This  includes  no  coverage  at  all,  limited  coverage   and  full  coverage.  A  dummy  variable  captures  both  the  effect  of  the  presence  of  a  deposit   insurance  system  as  well  as  the  effect  of  full  coverage  on  bank  solvency.  I  further  dissect   the   full   coverage   dummy   into   two   other   dummies:   a   full   legal   coverage   dummy   and   a   dummy  for  full  coverage  provided  by  a  political  statement.  

 

(4)

coverage  results  in  lower  solvency  of  individual  banks.  Furthermore,  adopting  a  deposit   insurance  system  results  in  lower  solvency  of  individual  banks.  The  negative  relation  is   even   stronger   for   deposit   insurance   systems   with   full   coverage.     Within   full   coverage   systems,  full  legal  coverage  leads  to  the  highest  decrease  in  bank  solvency.  Full  coverage   by  means  of  a  political  statement  has  a  weaker  decreasing  effect  on  bank  solvency.  

 

This   paper   contributes   to   the   literature   because   it   uses   a   data   continuous   measure   of   deposit  insurance  rather  than  a  dummy  variable  for  the  presence  of  it.  Because  deposit   insurance  is  either  absent  or  present,  capturing  the  effect  of  deposit  insurance  by  means   of   a   dummy   variable   is   a   common   procedure   in   the   deposit   insurance   literature.   It   is   easy  to  implement  and  does  not  require  data  on  the  amount  of  coverage  to  capture  the   effect   of   a   deposit   insurance   system.   However,   all   EU-­‐28   countries   nowadays   run   a   deposit  insurance  system  as  of  2003.  Capturing  the  effect  of  deposit  insurance  in  the  EU   from  2003  onwards  with  a  dummy  variable  becomes  impossible.  The  advantage  of  using   a  data  continuous  measure  is  that  it  captures  the  marginal  effect  of  a  change  in  coverage,   rather  than  capturing  the  effect  of  a  presence  of  a  deposit  insurance  system.  

 

Another  contribution  to  the  literature  is  that  I  supplement  the  database  by  Demirgüç-­‐ Kunt   et   al   (2005)   with   respect   to   coverage   data.     To   use   a   continuous   measure   of   coverage,  I  update  the  database  with  10  years  of  coverage  of  the  EU-­‐28  member  states.  I   use   sources   of   the   EU,   World   Bank,   IMF,   national   deposit   insurance   institutions   and   national  legislation.    

 

This   paper   continues   as   follows.   The   next   section   reviews   the   literature   on   deposit   insurance   as   well   as   methods   to   assess   its   moral   hazard   effect.   Section   3   provides   an   explanation  of  the  methodology.    Section  4  describes  the  data  and  sources  and  section  5   presents  the  results.  Section  6  contains  robustness  checks  and  section  7  concludes.  

 

2.  Literature  review  

(5)

the   central   bank’s   function   of   being   the   lender   of   last   resort.   Gropp,   Hakenes   and   Schnabel   (2011)   show   that   government   bailouts   lead   to   excessive   risk   taking   in   the   banking  industry,  especially  among  competitors.  Even  an  increase  in  expectations  of  a   bailout   results   in   an   increase   in   probability   of   financial   distress   (Dam   and   Koetter,   2012).   Therefore,   when   a   country   introduces   a   deposit   insurance   system,   it   should   carefully  weigh  the  pros  and  cons  of  it.    

 

2.1  Pros  and  cons  of  deposit  insurance    

The  main  benefit  of  deposit  insurance  is  to  prevent  wasteful  liquidations  of  bank  assets   caused   by   bank   runs   (Demirgüç-­‐Kunt,   Kane   and   Leaven,   2003).   The   theoretical   literature   seems   to   confirm   this.   The   benefits   of   deposit   insurance   can   outweigh   the   costs   (Bryant,   1980).   It   can   prevent   bank   runs   (Diamond   and   Dybvig,   1983)   and   promote   financial   stability   (Demirgüç-­‐Kunt   and   Detragiache,   2002).   Furthermore,   deposit  insurance  protects  small  and  uninformed  depositors  against  bank  failures  (Lé,   2013).  

 

The  disadvantage  of  deposit  insurance  is  that  it  comes  at  the  cost  of  moral  hazard.  Since   introducing  deposit  insurance  moves  part  of  the  costs  of  bankruptcy  from  the  depositors   and  banks  to  the  government,  moral  hazard  occurs  among  depositors  as  well  as  banks.   From  the  depositor’s  perspective,  depositors  are  disentangled  form  the  consequences  of   their   actions   (Calomiris,   1990;   Gennote   and   Pyle,   1991;   MacDonald,   1996):   in   their   choice  on  where  to  stall  deposits,  depositors  are  less  incentivized  to  base  their  decision   on  the  financial  health  of  a  bank,  and  more  incentivized  to  base  it  on  the  attractiveness   of  the  offered  interest  rate.  This  lowers  the  market  discipline  through  deposit  interest   rates  (Demirgüç-­‐Kunt  and  Huizinga,  2004).    

 

(6)

insurance   increases.   Hence,   if   the   deposit   insurance   premium   has   no   relation   to   the   expected   cost   of   bankruptcy,   it   is   optimal   for   banks   to   increase   risk   taking   if   deposit   insurance  coverage  is  increased  (Kareken  and  Wallace,  1978).    

 

2.2  Full  coverage  

Bank   runs   can   be   fully   eliminated   in   a   deposit   insurance   system   with   fully   covered   deposits.  However,  a  disadvantage  of  this  is  that  depositors  lose  the  incentive  to  monitor   their   banks’   activities,   leading   to   a   loss   in   bank   monitoring   information   provided   by   depositors.  Battacharya,  Boot  and  Thakor  (1998)  compare  a  deposit  insurance  system   characterized  by  full  coverage  and  limited  coverage  in  a  theoretical  model.    They  show   that  a  limited  coverage  system  encourages  market  discipline,  caused  by  increased  bank   monitoring   of   informed   depositors.   In   the   Diamond-­‐Dybvig   banking   model,   Hazlett   (1997)  finds  that  coinsurance  and  deductible  schemes  reduce  the  moral  hazard  problem   relative   to   full   insurance   schemes.   However,   the   cost   of   these   alternatives   is   that   they   are  less  effective  in  preventing  bank  runs.    

 

A  number  of  studies  confirm  the  theory  that  moral  hazard  problems  are  less  present  in   limited   coverage   schemes   relative   to   full   coverage   schemes.   Using   a   sample   of   4,109   publicly   traded   banks   in   96   countries,   Anginer,   Demirgüç-­‐Kunt   and   Zhu   (2013)   (ADZ   (2013)   from   here   on)   find   that   full   coverage   has   a   magnifying   effect   on   bank   risk   compared  to  limited  coverage.  This  is  consistent  with  Demirgüç-­‐Kunt  and  Detragiache   (2002),   who   find   that   full   coverage   might   further   intensify   the   moral   hazard   problem.   Imai   (2006)   compares   the   change   from   full   coverage   to   limited   coverage   in   Japan   in   2002.   He   finds   that   market   discipline   has   increased   after   the   transition   to   limited   coverage.  

 

2.3  Coverage  of  deposit  insurance    

(7)

EU.   To   join   the   EU,   the   (low   income)   accession   countries   are   obliged   to   adapt   the   EU   1994   directive   on   deposit   insurance   schemes   and   impose   20,000   euros   coverage.   His   findings   suggest   that   if   accession   countries   as   a   group   had   not   joined   the   EU,   the   probability   of   adopting   deposit   insurance   is   low,   as   well   as   imposing   a   20,000   euros   coverage  limit.  He  concludes  that  the  obliged  adoption  of  deposit  insurance  therefore  is   a  cost  for  EU  accession  countries:  the  relatively  high  coverage  of  20,000  euros  may  lead   to  reduced  financial  stability  because  of  increased  risk  taking  by  banks.  Dimitrova  and   Nenovsky   (2008)   find   evidence   of   over-­‐insurance   of   the   accession   countries   as   well.   They  argue  that  the  compliance  of  accession  countries  to  the  EU  1994  directive  has  led   to  a  coverage  that  is  excessive  relative  to  GDP  per  capita  and  bank  capital.  The  excessive   coverage  increases  moral  hazard  by  distorting  incentives  of  the  poorly  capitalized  banks   in  the  accession  countries.      

 

2.4  Empirical  findings  on  the  effect  of  deposit  insurance  on  bank  risk  

In   a   recent   study,   ADZ   (2013)   investigate   the   specific   link   between   deposit   insurance   and   bank   risk   before   and   during   the   global   financial   crisis.   They   find   that   deposit   insurance  increases  bank  risk  as  well  as  systemic  fragility  in  the  years  before  the  global   financial  crisis.  During  crisis  time,  however,  deposit  insurance  has  a  decreasing  effect  on   bank  risk,  and  systemic  fragility  is  lower  in  countries  with  a  deposit  insurance  system.   The   overall   effect   remains   negative,   because   their   sample   consists   of   a   larger   period   without  a  crisis  than  with  a  crisis.  In  addition,  good  bank  supervision  can  alleviate  the   unintended  consequences  of  deposit  insurance  on  bank  systemic  risk  during  good  times,   suggesting   that   imposing   the   right   incentives   is   important   for   ensuring   systemic   stability.      

 

(8)

capitalized   compared   to   uninsured   banks.   Also,   capitalization   and   liquidity   are   important  factors  that  could  determine  bank  failure.        

 

2.5  Empirical  methods  to  identify  the  effect  of  deposit  insurance  on  bank  risk  

The   banking   literature   contains   various   methods   to   examine   the   effect   of   deposit   insurance   on   a   bank’s   insolvency   risk.   An   important   aspect   is   the   methodology   to   estimate   the   risk   of   the   value   of   a   bank’s   assets.   Many   studies   use   the   option   pricing   model  by  Merton  (1977)  in  which  deposit  insurance  is  modeled  as  a  put  option  on  the   bank’s  assets.  For  example,  Leaven  (2002b)  uses  the  model  to  calculate  implicit  deposit   insurance  premiums  for  each  bank,  which  then  serve  as  a  proxy  for  a  bank’s  riskiness.     Merton’s  (1977)  model  is  attractive  to  use  because  it  establishes  a  direct  link  between   the   value   of   the   bank’s   assets   and   the   value   of   the   deposit   insurance   contract.   Furthermore,   it   uses   market   values   of   the   bank’s   assets   and   equity   rather   than   accounting   values.   However,   this   study   takes   into   account   both   listed   and   non-­‐listed   banks   and   therefore   does   not   use   Merton’s   (1977)   model.   Another   commonly   used   approach  to  estimate  risk  of  a  bank’s  assets  is  to  measure  the  volatility  of  a  bank’s  stock   return.   It   is   employed   in   ADZ   (2013).   Similar   to   the   model   of   Merton   (1977),   its   advantage   is   that   due   to   its   market   based   nature,   highly   frequent   data   can   be   used   as   input.   A   third   model   to   assess   bank   risk   is   the  z-­‐score1.  It  is  an   ‘expected  loss  pricing’  

model   (Leaven   2002a)   that   estimates   the   expected   default   probability   of   a   bank.   The   advantage  of  using  the  z-­‐score  is  that  it  is  based  on  simple  accounting  values  rather  than   market  values.  It  is  therefore  applicable  to  every  bank.    

 

The   variable   deposit   insurance   is   differently   treated   in   the   literature.   A   commonly   employed  method  is  using  a  dataset  with  many  counties  that  do  or  do  not  have  deposit   insurance,  and  then  filter  out  the  effect  of  deposit  insurance  by  comparing  the  difference   between  them.  An  example  is  the  study  of  Anginer,  Demirgüç-­‐Kunt  and  Zhu  (2013).  In  a   dataset   of   96   countries,   they   use   a   dummy   variable   for   both   the   existence   of   deposit   insurance   and   the   existence   of   full   coverage.   Subsequently,   they   regress   these   dummy   variables   on   z-­‐scores   of   banks.   Huizinga   (2005)   uses   data   on   deposit   insurance   of   countries   outside   the   EU   to   estimate   the   coverage   that   EU   accession   countries   would                                                                                                                  

1  See  for  example:  de  Nicolo  (2001),  Dam  and  Koetter  (2012),    Anginer,  Demirgüç-­‐Kunt  

(9)

have  had  (if  any)  if  they  were  not  forced  by  the  EU  to  oblige  to  the  EU  1994  directive  on   deposit  insurance  schemes.    

 

Based   on   theory   and   empirical   findings,   I   expect   a   negative   relation   between   deposit   insurance  and  bank  solvency  in  the  EU  because  of  the  moral  hazard  effect.  Offering  full   coverage  should  magnify  this  effect  even  more.  Most  empirical  studies  have  in  common   that  they  compare  deposit  insurance  systems  with  different  characteristics:  periods  of   full  coverage  are  compared  with  periods  of  limited  coverage  by  using  a  dummy  variable.   In   this   paper   I   capture   the   effect   of   full   coverage   on   bank   insolvency   with   a   dummy   variable,  but  the  variable  for  limited  coverage  is  a  data  continuous  variable.    

 

3.  Methodology    

To   identify   the   effect   of   deposit   insurance   on   bank   solvency   in   the   EU-­‐28,   I   regress   deposit   insurance   coverage   on   a   bank   solvency   measure   in   a   multivariate   panel   data   model.  This  section  discusses  the  rationale  behind  the  dependent,  independent,  control   variables  and  the  error  term,  followed  by  the  econometric  specification.  

 

3.1  Dependent  variable  

The  model  contains  the  z-­‐score  as  a  dependent  variable  to  reduce  a  potential  selection   bias.   Z-­‐score   is   a   measure   for   bank   solvency   and   is   accounting   based.   This   allows   an   assessment   of   bank   solvency   for   every   bank   in   the   dataset,   rather   than   only   market   based  ones.  I  define  the  z-­‐score  as:    

where   z-­‐score   equals   the   amount   of   standard   deviations   returns   may   decrease   before   they  exhaust  a  bank’s  capital.  𝑅𝑂𝐴𝐴  is  the  return  on  average  assets  (π/AA)  with  π  as  net   income.  Specifically,  𝑅𝑂𝐴𝐴  is  a  bank’s  net  income  in  year  t  over  average  assets,  defined   as   the   average   amount   of   assets   on   a   2   year   rolling   window:   t   and   t-­‐1.   To   overcome   losing  the  starting  year  for  which  t-­‐1  is  not  available,  I  create  the  𝑅𝑂𝐴𝐴  for  starting  years   by  using  only  assets  in  t.    𝐸/𝑇𝐴  represents  equity  (E)  over  total  assets  (TA)  and  𝜎!"##  is  

the  standard  deviation  of  the  return  on  a  bank’s  average  assets  of  all  available  years.      

z    − score =𝑅𝑂𝐴𝐴 + 𝐸/𝑇𝐴 𝜎!"##

(10)

Assuming   that   a   insolvency   occurs   when   a   bank’s   losses   exceed   its   equity,   the   probability   of   an   insolvent   bank   equals:   P(ROAA<E/TA).   I   furthermore   assume   that  

ROAA  follows  a  normal  distribution,  the  z-­‐score  then  relates  inversely  to  the  probability  

of   bank   insolvency   (Roy,   1952).   The   z-­‐score   can   be   interpreted   as   the   distance   to   insolvency:   the   higher   the   z-­‐score,   the   more   solvent   the   bank.   Because   of   the   moral   hazard  mechanism,  I  expect  a  negative  relation  between  deposit  insurance  and  z-­‐scores   of   banks.   The   model   contains   the   natural   logarithm   of   the   z-­‐score   because   the   distribution  of  the  z-­‐score  is  highly  skewed.  

 

3.2  Independent  variables  

Different   forms   of   deposit   insurance   coverage   enter   as   independent   variable   in   the   regression  model.  Starting  with  deposit  insurance  coverage,  I  scale  coverage  by  GDP  per   capita.   This   transformation   provides   two   main   advantages   compared   with   using   unscaled  coverage.  First,  it  better  reflects  relative  differences  in  the  amount  of  coverage   within  a  country  and  between  countries.  As  a  consequence,  it  better  reflects  the  degree   to  which  depositors  are  incentivized  to  monitor  their  bank.  For  example,  in  line  with  the   former  EU-­‐1994  directive  on  deposit  guarantee  schemes,  Austria  has  offered  coverage  of   20,000  euros  between  1999  and  2008.  During  that  time,  due  to  real  economic  growth   and   inflation   Austrian   GDP   per   capita   increased   from   24,900   to   34,000   euros   respectively.     Austrian   depositors   in   2008   are   therefore   more   likely   to   reach   the   coverage  limit  compared  to  Austrian  depositors  in  1999,  implying  that  the  former  are   more  incentivized  to  monitor  their  bank  than  the  latter.  The  same  argument  applies  for   differences   in   income   between   countries.   Second,   scaling   coverage   to   GDP   per   capita   results  in  a  variable  with  more  variance.  Although  coverage  increased  during  the  recent   financial   crisis,   especially   the   decade   before   the   financial   crisis   seems   to   have   been   a   period   in   which   governments   lost   attention   on   the   topic   of   deposit   insurance:   many   countries   left   their   coverage   unchanged.   To   obtain   the   most   information   out   of   the   coverage  values,  scaling  them  to  GDP  per  capita  leads  to  more  variance  in  the  deposit   insurance  variable.    

 

(11)

and   ‘0’   otherwise.   Subsequently,   I   split   this   dummy   into   full   legal   coverage   and   full   political  coverage.    

 

The  expectation  is  that  a  negative  relation  exists  between  of  all  dummies  with  respect  to   the   z-­‐score   and   that   the   effect   of   full   legal   coverage   is   larger   in   magnitude   than   full   political   coverage.   First,   in   case   of   absence   of   deposit   insurance,   the   bill   in   case   of   bankruptcy   is   implicitly   for   governments,   because   they   will   in   the   end   save   their   financial  system  by  saving  a  bank,  and  depositors  who  lose  their  money.  Depositors  and   government   therefore   have   an   incentive   to   monitor   banks.   There   is   no   moral   hazard,   and   therefore   no   disruptions   in   market   for   deposits.   Adopting   a   deposit   insurance   system   transfers   the   bill   in   part   from   depositors   to   the   government.   The   monitoring   incentive  partly  shifts  from  depositor  to  government.  Depositor’s  incentive  to  monitor   their  bank  decreases,  resulting  in  an  increased  demand  for  riskier  and  higher  yielding   deposit  accounts.  Safe  banks  are  forced  to  increase  their  interest  rates  to  keep  attracting   deposits.  The  implication  of  this  is  that  banks  need  to  be  involved  in  riskier  investments   to  be  able  to  repay  their  increased  cost  of  money.  The  market  becomes  disrupted,  higher   interest  rates.  Banks  become  less  solvent  because  of  excessive  risk  taking.    

 

In  case  of  deposit  insurance  with  full  legal  coverage,  the  bill  in  case  of  a  bankruptcy  is  for   the   government   in   full.   Therefore,   the   incentive   to   monitor   is   for   governments   in   full.   However,  depositors  might  still  have  an  incentive  to  monitor  banks,  depending  on  the   credibility   of   the   government.   If   a   government   is   not   credible   and   not   able   to   repay   deposits,   it   is   likely   that   it   raises   taxes   to   repay,   which   indirectly   shifts   the   bill   to   depositors.   Therefore,   in   line   with   the   Ricardian   equivalence   theorem   (Ricardo,   1888)   depositors   could   adjust   their   behavior   depending   on   the   method   of   financing   by   the   government.  I  therefore  expect  that  banks  are  less  solvent  in  a  deposit  market  with  full   coverage   and   a   credible   government,   compared   to   the   same   situation   but   without   a   credible  government.  Nevertheless,  a  deposit  insurance  system  with  full  legal  coverage   should  have  a  decreasing  effect  on  solvency  of  banks.  This  effect  should  be  even  stronger   compared   to   limited   coverage   systems   because   the   disruptive   effect   in   the   market   of   deposits  is  stronger.  

(12)

Lastly,   deposit   insurance   with   full   coverage   by   a   political   statement.   The   same   arguments  of  full  legal  coverage  count  for  full  political  coverage,  except  that  depositor’s   incentive  to  monitor  banks  now  depends  on  the  credibility  of  the  political  statement.  As   political  statements  are  less  binding  compared  to  the  law,  the  hypothesis  is  that  a  full   political  coverage  system  has  a  decreasing  effect  on  solvency  of  banks,  but  the  effect  is   less  strong  compared  to  full  legal  coverage.    After  all,  it  is  not  illegal  for  a  politician  not  to   keep  your  word,  but  it  is  illegal  not  to  obey  the  law.    

 

3.3  Control  variables  

To   improve   identification   of   the   effect   of   deposit   insurance   on   bank   solvency,   I   follow   ADZ  (2013)  and  add  bank  specific  and  macroeconomic  control  variables  to  the  model.   Macroeconomic  conditions  influence  the  performance  of  all  banks  and  the  value  of  their   pledged  collateral,  which  affects  a  bank’s  return  on  average  assets  and  equity  over  total   assets  ratio  and  so  solvency.  Bank  specific  conditions  correct  for  different  characteristics   of  a  bank  that  influence  solvency.  The  model  contains  4  bank  specific  control  variables   and   2   macroeconomic   control   variables.   I   transform   these   control   variables   by   taking   their  natural  logarithms  if  this  leads  towards  a  less-­‐skewed  distribution.  

 

3.3.1  Bank  specific  control  variables  

First,  the  model  contains  the  natural  logarithm  of  total  assets  to  correct  for  bank  size.   Ceteris   paribus,   larger   banks   are   sooner   systemically   important   than   smaller   banks.   Therefore   larger   banks   are   subject   to   stricter   supervision,   which   limits   excessive   risk   taking.  Furthermore,  large  banks  that  are  too  big  to  fail  are  able  to  finance  themselves  in   a   cheaper   way   because   the   market   allows   a   smaller   risk   premium   for   them   to   pay.   (Bijlsma,   Lukkezen   and   Marinova,   2014)   This   positively   influences   return   on   assets,   leading   to   a   higher   z-­‐score.   Because   of   stricter   supervision   and   cheaper   financing   I   expect  a  positive  relation  between  the  natural  logarithm  of  total  assets  and  z-­‐score.      

(13)

bank,  I  expect  an  increase  in  solvency  if  the  share  of  deposits  increases.  Therefore,  the   expectation  is  that  the  variable  is  positively  related  to  the  z-­‐score.  The  last  bank  specific   control  variable  is  loan  loss  provisions  over  net  interest  revenue,  to  correct  for  the  share   of  provisions  of  a  bank.  Banks  with  non-­‐performing  loans  handle  this  by  setting  funds   aside   in   case   the   debitor   is   not   able   to   pay   back   their   loan.   A   high   share   of   loan   loss   provisions   therefore   indicates   a   less   solvent   bank,   leading   to   the   hypothesis   that   it   relates  negatively  to  the  z-­‐score.    

 

3.3.2  Macroeconomic  control  variables    

First,  I  include  the  natural  logarithm  of  variance  of  GDP  growth  as  a  proxy  for  economic   stability.   On   average,   firms   in   stable   economies   should   have   an   easier   time   in   paying   back  their  loans  on  a  continuous  base  than  firms  in  unstable  economies.  Hence,  banks  in   stable   economies   should   have   a   lower   standard   deviation   of   return   on   average   assets   than   banks   in   unstable   economies.   Variance   of   GDP   growth   should   therefore   relate   negatively   to   the   z-­‐score.     Second,   I   add   the   natural   logarithm   of   GDP   per   capita   to   measure  the  economic  development  of  a  country.  Well-­‐developed  countries  often  have  a   financial  system  that  is  more  stable  than  less  developed  countries.  The  quality  of  bank   supervision   is   higher   as   well.   For   this   reason,   the   natural   logarithm   of   GDP   per   capita   should  have  a  positive  relation  with  the  z-­‐scores.      

 

3.4  Error  term  

Possible  omitted  variables  will  end  up  in  the  error  term.  An  example  is  the  shareholder   structure   of   a   bank,   which   could   be   of   influence   on   the   amount   of   risk   a   bank   takes   (Leaven  and  Levine,  2009).  However,  due  the  scarceness  of  information  with  respect  to   shareholder   structure   of   the   the   banks   in   the   sample   I   do   not   include   it   in   the   model.   Including  it  would  greatly  reduce  the  amount  of  observations,  and  possibly  significance.          

3.5  Econometric  specification  

(14)

non-­‐crisis  years.  I  use  random  bank  effects  because  the  focus  of  this  paper  lies  on  the   total   population   of   banks   in   the   EU-­‐28.   Assuming   a   normal   distribution   of   bank   characteristic  effects,  random  bank  effects  allow  inference  with  respect  to  the  solvency   of  all  banks  in  the  EU-­‐28,  whereas  results  of  fixed  bank  effects  only  allow  inference  with   respect  to  the  solvency  of  banks  in  the  sample.  Furthermore,  the  assumption  is  that  the   sample  of  banks  is  a  random  draw  of  the  bank  population  as  a  whole.  This  implies  that   the  sample  is  indeed  representative  for  the  total  bank  population  in  the  EU-­‐28.  

 

 The  econometric  specification  is  as  follows:    

𝑧 − 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒!,! =   𝛽!+ 𝛽! 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡  𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒  𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 !,!+ 𝛽!𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙!,!

+ 𝛼! + 𝛾!+ 𝑢!,!

(2)

where  𝑧𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒!,!  is  the  z-­‐score  of  bank  i  in  at  time  t.  It  depends  on  a  constant  𝛽!,  and  on  

𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡  𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒  𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠!,!,  representing  the  type  of  deposit  insurance  policy.  The  

types  of  deposit  insurance  policies  are:  presence  of  deposit  insurance  Deposit  Insurance  

Presence,   limited   coverage   Coverage/GDP  per  Capita,   a   full   coverage   system   in   form   of   Full   Coverage   and   full   legal   and   full   political   coverage   Full   Legal   Coverage   and   Full  

Political  Coverage  respectively.  Furthermore,  𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙!,!  contains  variables  that  influence  

a   bank’s   solvency   on   both   bank   specific   and   macroeconomic   level.  𝛼!  is   the   random   effect  component  for  banks  and  𝛾!  the  fixed  time  effect.    

 

The   coefficient   of   interest   is  𝛽!.   Its   value   quantifies   the   relation   between   the   different  

(15)

compared   to   deposit   insurance   that   is   rooted   in   the   law.   Therefore,   the   hypothesis   is   that   the   coefficient   of   Full   Legal   Coverage   is   larger   in   magnitude   compared   to   the   coefficient  of  Full  Political  Coverage.    

 

4.  Data  and  descriptive  statistics     4.1  Selection  procedure  and  sources  

The   dataset   comprises   macroeconomic   variables,   bank   specific   variables   and   deposit   insurance  variables  of  all  28  EU  countries.  Macroeconomic  variables  are  from  Eurostat.   The   availability   of   bank   specific   variables   in   Bankscope   forms   a   bottleneck   for   the   timespan   of   the   dataset.   Bankscope   offers   bank   specific   data   starting   in   1998   with   a   yearly  frequency;  therefore  the  time  span  equals  16  years  (from  1998  till  2013).  Deposit   insurance   coverage   data   for   the   years   1998   till   2003   stem   from   the   deposit   insurance   database  by  Demirgüç-­‐Kunt  et  al  (2005).  I  further  update  this  database  with  respect  to   the  coverage  amounts  for  the  years  2004  till  2013  by  using  sources  of  multiple  financial   institutions.  They  include  country  reports  of  the  IMF,  EU  directives  on  deposit  insurance   schemes   of   1994   and   2009,   national   legislation,   documents   of   the   Financial   Stability   Board,  financial  sector  assessments  by  the  World  Bank  and  IMF  and  data  from  national   deposit   insurance   institutions.   Table   A.1   in   the   appendix   shows   for   all   three   types   of   variables  their  data  source  and  appropriate  year.  The  unbalanced  panel  forms  another   bottleneck  for  the  number  of  observations.  With  respect  to  deposit  insurance,  years  are   missing,   especially   the   period   between   2004   and   2005   for   accession   countries.   With   respect   to   bank   specific   data,   gaps   in   the   dataset   exist   because   banks   go   bankrupt,   or   simply  do  not  report  their  data  to  Bankscope.  

 

4.2  Descriptive  statistics  

Table   1   provides   descriptive   statistics   for   the   variables.   The   maximum   number   of   observations  equals  69888.  This  is  the  case  for  the  Deposit  Insurance  Presence  dummy   variable   and   the   three   types   of   full   coverage   dummy   variables.   However,   the   variable   Deposits   and   Short   Term   Funding/Total   Assets   restrict   the   maximum   number   of   observations  to  15,219.    

(16)

4.2.1  Dependent  variable  

The  mean  of  the  natural  logarithm  of  z-­‐score  equals  3.39,  and  is  lower  to  the  mean  of   3.50   of   ADZ   (2013).   An   explanation   for   this   could   be   that   they   include   banks   of   96   countries,   of   which   many   are   developing   countries   that   have   a   less   stable   economic   environment  or  a  lower  quality  of  supervision.  However,  the  standard  deviation  is  1.15,   which   is   slightly   higher   than   the   1.08   of   ADZ   (2013).     The   minimum   value   of   -­‐6.58   indicates  that  a  bank  has  a  z-­‐score  between  0  and  1.  In  other  words,  the  probability  of   bank  insolvency  is  than  1  standard  deviation.  

 

4.2.2  Independent  variables  

The   Coverage/GDP   per   Capita   ratio   has   a   mean   of   2.19,   indicating   that   on   average,   a   country  in  the  dataset  offers  a  deposit  insurance  coverage  of  2.19  times  the  average  per   capita  income.  To  get  a  better  sense  of  this,  the  average  GDP  per  Capita  in  the  EU-­‐28  for   the  years  between  1998  and  2013  is  27  thousand  euros.  Multiplying  this  by  2.19  yields   59   thousand   euros   of   deposit   insurance   coverage   for   an   average   country   with   the   average   coverage   to   GDP   per   Capita   ratio.     The   maximum   coverage/GDP   per   Capita   is   21.74  and  its  minimum  value  is  0  euros  for  countries  that  do  not  have  deposit  insurance   in  one  or  more  of  the  years  between  1998  and  2013.  This  is  the  case  for  Cyprus,  Malta,   and  Slovenia,  which  have  deposit  insurance  as  of  2000,  2003,  and  2001  respectively.      

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

Editors Joost-Pieter Katoen RWTH Aachen University Aachen Germany and University of Twente Enschede The Netherlands Rom Langerak University of Twente Enschede The Netherlands

Specifically, it is unclear which preventive health care behaviors are sensitive to ex ante moral hazard; the demand elasticity for health care is surely positive, but estimates

Keywords: Solvency II, asset portfolio, regulation, ex ante preparation, investment risk, property casualty insurance company, life insurance company, funding ratio..

Despite the larger sample size, the voluntary deductible has no significant effect on an individual probability to be categorized as an excessive smoker, drinker or

relationship between the insurance coverage and healthcare utilisation for both dental care and physiotherapy, which provides evidence for the presence of moral hazard and/or

The influence of a moral appeal on the response rate of students to course evaluations will depend on a student’s fill out history in such a way that moral appeals

In order to test whether government bailouts induce moral hazard effects in terms of excessive risk taking by banks, this study uses a two-step model to

In deze formule is W de nettowinst per 100 meter gras-kruidenrand, S is het subsidiebedrag per strekkende meter gras-kruidenrand en D is het bedrag aan winstderving per hectare..