A short history of risk

Are we facing a riskier world?

1960s &

1970s

1980s &

1990s

2000s &

2010s

Future

Financial

& economic

n/a

n/a

Natural Ecological Man-made Epidemics War Geopolitical Terrorism Technology Cybercrime

A short history of risk

Conflict, natural disasters, epidemics, banking crises, government debt, terrorism, and cybercrime increasingly make the headlines. Is this a reflection of the current abundance and speed of information and the pursuit of clickbait, or is it an accurate depiction of reality?

It depends. The answer is contingent upon the risk types, their location, and their historical evolution.

PwC has identified four global risk categories, namely financial & economic, ecological, geopolitical, and technology risks. We look at the past, present, and future.

First, we shed light on the evolution of these risks and the main events that shaped them. Second, we assess whether recent risk levels are more or less elevated than historical risk levels. We conclude with the main sources of risk for the future.

To the right, the vertical progression of the magnitude of the mountains reflects the progression of risk through time. As an example, financial risks were more prominent in the 1980s and 1990s compared to the 21st century, while natural disaster risks are at an all-time high.

While these global risks affect all entities across industries and geographies, this report focuses on financial sector (FS) entities. We strongly recommend that FS entities base their strategic decision-making on a holistic approach to risk management that includes an explicit consideration of each of these four global risk categories, in addition to FS-specific risks.

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© 2019 PricewaterhouseCoopers B.V. (KvK 34180289) All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or

more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

For a detailed view of the individual graphs, please hover over them with your mouse pointer.

Financial and economic risks:

Financial and economic risks were at their highest in the 1980s and 1990s, when most of the crises hit all-time highs. Within this category, we include banking crises, systemic crises, currency crises, inflation crises, sovereign debt crises and domestic debt in default crises.

Future considerations

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Sum of banking crises Sum of systemic crises Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Sum of currency crises Sum of inflation crises Great Depression 1929

2000 Dot.com bubble

Russian rouble devaluation and government debt default 1998 Golden Age of capitalism

1945-1973 Glass-Steagall Act 1933

The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act 1999

Asian financial crisis 1997 because of bursting asset bubbles Financial deregulation, starting with US and UK in 1979 and 1980 and spreading to continental Europe after 1990

Mexican financial crisis 1995

1st oil crisis 1973 bcs of P collusion of OPEC

Russian rouble devaluation 1998 Collapse of Soviet Union

Asian financial crisis 1997 The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath German hyperfinflation

1921 - 1923

Second oil shock 1979

Suspension of USD-gold convertibility 1971 Stagflation in the 70s showed limits of the Keynesian consensus of the 50s and 60s

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of domestic debt in default crises

European Single Market Project 1993

European sovereign debt crisis IMF and World Bank

were established in 1944 The unravelling of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin wall 1989

The developing world debt crisis started with Mexico in 1982, partly as a result of the high interest rate policy in the US in the 1970s and early 1980s The Great Develeraging of 1945 - 1980, when the national debt/ GDP ratios of many developed countries fell by more than 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of inflation crises Sum of currency crises Sum of banking crises

0 5 10 15 20 25

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of currency crises

Sum of inflation crises Sum of banking crises

Global incidences of banking and systemic crises

Global incidences of currency and inflation crises

Global incidences of sovereign external debt crises and domestic debt in default crises

A cumulative global overview of different types of financial crises*

A cumulative overview of different types of financial crises in Europe*

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart 0

5 10 15 20 25 30

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Sum of banking crises Sum of systemic crises Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Sum of currency crises Sum of inflation crises Great Depression 1929

2000 Dot.com bubble

Russian rouble devaluation and government debt default 1998 Golden Age of capitalism

1945-1973 Glass-Steagall Act 1933

The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act 1999

Asian financial crisis 1997 because of bursting asset bubbles Financial deregulation, starting with US and UK in 1979 and 1980 and spreading to continental Europe after 1990

Mexican financial crisis 1995

1st oil crisis 1973 bcs of P collusion of OPEC

Russian rouble devaluation 1998 Collapse of Soviet Union

Asian financial crisis 1997 The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath German hyperfinflation

1921 - 1923

Second oil shock 1979

Suspension of USD-gold convertibility 1971 Stagflation in the 70s showed limits of the Keynesian consensus of the 50s and 60s

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of domestic debt in default crises

European Single Market Project 1993

European sovereign debt crisis IMF and World Bank

were established in 1944

The unravelling of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin wall 1989

The developing world debt crisis started with Mexico in 1982, partly as a result of the high interest rate policy in the US in the 1970s and early 1980s The Great Develeraging of 1945 - 1980, when the national debt/ GDP ratios of many developed countries fell by more than 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of inflation crises Sum of currency crises Sum of banking crises

0 5 10 15 20 25

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of currency crises

Sum of inflation crises Sum of banking crises

Global incidences of banking and systemic crises

Global incidences of currency and inflation crises

Global incidences of sovereign external debt crises and domestic debt in default crises

A cumulative global overview of different types of financial crises*

A cumulative overview of different types of financial crises in Europe*

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart 0

5 10 15 20 25 30

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Sum of banking crises Sum of systemic crises Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Sum of currency crises Sum of inflation crises Great Depression 1929

2000 Dot.com bubble

Russian rouble devaluation and government debt default 1998 Golden Age of capitalism

1945-1973 Glass-Steagall Act 1933

The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act 1999

Asian financial crisis 1997 because of bursting asset bubbles Financial deregulation, starting with US and UK in 1979 and 1980 and spreading to continental Europe after 1990

Mexican financial crisis 1995

1st oil crisis 1973 bcs of P collusion of OPEC

Russian rouble devaluation 1998 Collapse of Soviet Union

Asian financial crisis 1997 The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath German hyperfinflation

1921 - 1923

Second oil shock 1979

Suspension of USD-gold convertibility 1971 Stagflation in the 70s showed limits of the Keynesian consensus of the 50s and 60s

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of domestic debt in default crises

European Single Market Project 1993

European sovereign debt crisis IMF and World Bank

were established in 1944

The unravelling of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin wall 1989

The developing world debt crisis started with Mexico in 1982, partly as a result of the high interest rate policy in the US in the 1970s and early 1980s The Great Develeraging of 1945 - 1980, when the national debt/ GDP ratios of many developed countries fell by more than 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of inflation crises Sum of currency crises Sum of banking crises

0 5 10 15 20 25

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of currency crises

Sum of inflation crises Sum of banking crises

Global incidences of banking and systemic crises

Global incidences of currency and inflation crises

Global incidences of sovereign external debt crises and domestic debt in default crises

A cumulative global overview of different types of financial crises*

A cumulative overview of different types of financial crises in Europe*

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart 0

5 10 15 20 25 30

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Sum of banking crises Sum of systemic crises Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Sum of currency crises Sum of inflation crises Great Depression 1929

2000 Dot.com bubble

Russian rouble devaluation and government debt default 1998 Golden Age of capitalism

1945-1973 Glass-Steagall Act 1933

The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act 1999

Asian financial crisis 1997 because of bursting asset bubbles Financial deregulation, starting with US and UK in 1979 and 1980 and spreading to continental Europe after 1990

Mexican financial crisis 1995

1st oil crisis 1973 bcs of P collusion of OPEC

Russian rouble devaluation 1998 Collapse of Soviet Union

Asian financial crisis 1997 The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath German hyperfinflation

1921 - 1923

Second oil shock 1979

Suspension of USD-gold convertibility 1971 Stagflation in the 70s showed limits of the Keynesian consensus of the 50s and 60s

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of domestic debt in default crises

European Single Market Project 1993

European sovereign debt crisis IMF and World Bank

were established in 1944

The unravelling of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin wall 1989

The developing world debt crisis started with Mexico in 1982, partly as a result of the high interest rate policy in the US in the 1970s and early 1980s The Great Develeraging of 1945 - 1980, when the national debt/ GDP ratios of many developed countries fell by more than 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of inflation crises Sum of currency crises Sum of banking crises

0 5 10 15 20 25

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of currency crises

Sum of inflation crises Sum of banking crises

Global incidences of banking and systemic crises

Global incidences of currency and inflation crises

Global incidences of sovereign external debt crises and domestic debt in default crises

A cumulative global overview of different types of financial crises*

A cumulative overview of different types of financial crises in Europe*

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart 0

5 10 15 20 25 30

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Sum of banking crises Sum of systemic crises Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016

Source: Harvard - Global Risk Crises Data 1900-2016 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Sum of currency crises Sum of inflation crises Great Depression 1929

2000 Dot.com bubble

Russian rouble devaluation and government debt default 1998 Golden Age of capitalism

1945-1973 Glass-Steagall Act 1933

The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act 1999

Asian financial crisis 1997 because of bursting asset bubbles Financial deregulation, starting with US and UK in 1979 and 1980 and spreading to continental Europe after 1990

Mexican financial crisis 1995

1st oil crisis 1973 bcs of P collusion of OPEC

Russian rouble devaluation 1998 Collapse of Soviet Union

Asian financial crisis 1997 The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath German hyperfinflation

1921 - 1923

Second oil shock 1979

Suspension of USD-gold convertibility 1971 Stagflation in the 70s showed limits of the Keynesian consensus of the 50s and 60s

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of domestic debt in default crises

European Single Market Project 1993

European sovereign debt crisis IMF and World Bank

were established in 1944

The unravelling of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin wall 1989

The developing world debt crisis started with Mexico in 1982, partly as a result of the high interest rate policy in the US in the 1970s and early 1980s The Great Develeraging of 1945 - 1980, when the national debt/ GDP ratios of many developed countries fell by more than 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of inflation crises Sum of currency crises Sum of banking crises

0 5 10 15 20 25

Sum of sovereign external debt crises Sum of currency crises

Sum of inflation crises Sum of banking crises

Global incidences of banking and systemic crises

Global incidences of currency and inflation crises

Global incidences of sovereign external debt crises and domestic debt in default crises

A cumulative global overview of different types of financial crises*

A cumulative overview of different types of financial crises in Europe*

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

For a detailed view of the individual graphs, please hover over them with your mouse pointer.

Ecological risks:

Within this category, we include man-made disasters, natural disasters and epidemics. Considering the varied nature of risks under this category, their historical development has been different.

FS specific considerations Future considerations

1946

14.000

10.000

6.000 12.000

8.000

4.000 2.000      0 700.000.000

500.000.000

400.000.000

300.000.000

200.000.000

100.000.000 0

19491952

19401943 1955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Sum of Total affected (left)

Sum of Total deaths (right)

Severity of man-made disasters as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

1940

12.000 14.000

10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0

194219441946194819501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018 Water Gas leak

Chemical spill

Road Fire

Air

Rail Explosion

Oil spill Collapse Number of deaths caused by each type of man-made disaster*

1940194219441946194819501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018

Global occurrences of man-made disasters 400

300

200 350

250

150 100 50 0

Total

*Stacked chart

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Man-made disasters

1946

14.000

10.000

6.000 12.000

8.000

4.000 2.000      0 700.000.000

500.000.000

400.000.000

300.000.000

200.000.000

100.000.000 0

19491952

19401943 1955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018

Sum of Total affected (left) Sum of Total deaths (right)

Severity of man-made disasters as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

1940

12.000 14.000

10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0

194219441946194819501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018

Water Gas leak

Chemical spill

Road Fire

Air

Rail Explosion

Oil spill Collapse

Number of deaths caused by each type of man-made disaster*

1940194219441946194819501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018

Global occurrences of man-made disasters

400

300

200 350

250

150 100 50 0

Total

*Stacked chart

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Man-made disasters

1946

14.000

10.000

6.000 12.000

8.000

4.000 2.000      0 700.000.000

500.000.000

400.000.000

300.000.000

200.000.000

100.000.000 0

19491952

19401943 1955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018

Sum of Total affected (left) Sum of Total deaths (right)

Severity of man-made disasters as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

1940

12.000 14.000

10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0

194219441946194819501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018

Water Gas leak

Chemical spill

Road Fire

Air

Rail Explosion

Oil spill Collapse

Number of deaths caused by each type of man-made disaster*

1940194219441946194819501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018

Global occurrences of man-made disasters

400

300

200 350

250

150 100 50 0

Total

*Stacked chart

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Man-made disasters

1946

2.500.000

2.000.000

1.500.000

1.000.000

500.000

0 600.000.000

700.000.000

500.000.000 400.000.000 300.000.000 200.000.000 100.000.000 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Sum of Total affected (left)

Sum of Total deaths (right)

Severity of natural disasters as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

1946

600.000.000 700.000.000

500.000.000 400.000.000 300.000.000 200.000.000 100.000.000 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Wildfire Landslide Extreme temperature Volcanic activity Impact Earthquake

Storm Fog Drought

Mass movement (dry) Flood

Number of people affected by each type of natural disaster*

1946

450 500

400

300

200 350

250

150 100 50 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Total

Global occurences of natural disasters

*Stacked chart Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Natural disasters

1946

2.500.000

2.000.000

1.500.000

1.000.000

500.000

0 600.000.000

700.000.000

500.000.000 400.000.000 300.000.000 200.000.000 100.000.000 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Sum of Total affected (left)

Sum of Total deaths (right)

Severity of natural disasters as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

1946

600.000.000 700.000.000

500.000.000 400.000.000 300.000.000 200.000.000 100.000.000 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Wildfire Landslide Extreme temperature Volcanic activity Impact Earthquake

Storm Fog Drought

Mass movement (dry) Flood

Number of people affected by each type of natural disaster*

1946

450 500

400

300

200 350

250

150 100 50 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Total

Global occurences of natural disasters

*Stacked chart Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Natural disasters

1946

2.500.000

2.000.000

1.500.000

1.000.000

500.000

0 600.000.000

700.000.000

500.000.000 400.000.000 300.000.000 200.000.000 100.000.000 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Sum of Total affected (left)

Sum of Total deaths (right)

Severity of natural disasters as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

1946

600.000.000 700.000.000

500.000.000 400.000.000 300.000.000 200.000.000 100.000.000 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Wildfire Landslide Extreme temperature Volcanic activity Impact Earthquake

Storm Fog Drought

Mass movement (dry) Flood

Number of people affected by each type of natural disaster*

1946

450 500

400

300

200 350

250

150 100 50 0

194919521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009201220152018 Total

Global occurences of natural disasters

*Stacked chart Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Natural disasters

1940

35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 6.000.000

7.000.000

5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 0

19471953196419661968197019721975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017

194019471953196419661968197019721975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017 Sum of affected (left)

Sum of Total deaths (right)

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database Severity of epidemics as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Global occurences of epidemics*

Viral disease Parasitic desease Bacterial desease Other

New pathogens discovered, of which 70% have animal origins

SARS H1N1

Ebola Zika

New vaccines and antibiotics

*Stacked chart

Epidemics

1940

35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 6.000.000

7.000.000

5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 0

19471953196419661968197019721975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017

194019471953196419661968197019721975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017 Sum of affected (left)

Sum of Total deaths (right)

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Source: EM-DAT The International Disaster Database

Severity of epidemics as measured by the number of deaths and the number of people affected

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Global occurences of epidemics*

Viral disease Parasitic desease Bacterial desease Other

New pathogens discovered, of which 70% have animal origins

SARS H1N1

Ebola Zika

New vaccines and antibiotics

*Stacked chart

Epidemics

For a detailed view of the individual graphs, please hover over them with your mouse pointer.

Geopolitical risks:

Within this category we include armed conflicts and terrorism. The data highlights the dependence of geopolitical risks on geographic areas, thereby making global conclusions less meaningful.

Armed conflicts

Terrorism

Future considerations

1946

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Global incidences of armed conflict*

1946

18

14

10

6 4 2 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 16

12

8

Global incidences of armed conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths per year*

1946

25

20

15

10

5

0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Top 10 countries with the most incidences of armed conflict*

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict 9

8

6

4

2

0 7

5

3

1

Armed conflict incidences in Europe*

Sudan Iraq Colombia

Philipines Indonesia Angola

Myanmar (Burma) India

Israel Ethiopia

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states *Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

1946

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Global incidences of armed conflict*

1946

18

14

10

6 4 2 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 16

12

8

Global incidences of armed conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths per year*

1946

25

20

15

10

5

0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Top 10 countries with the most incidences of armed conflict*

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict 9

8

6

4

2

0 7

5

3

1

Armed conflict incidences in Europe*

Sudan Iraq Colombia

Philipines Indonesia Angola

Myanmar (Burma) India

Israel Ethiopia

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states *Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

1946

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Global incidences of armed conflict*

1946

18

14

10

6 4 2 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 16

12

8

Global incidences of armed conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths per year*

1946

25

20

15

10

5

0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Top 10 countries with the most incidences of armed conflict*

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict 9

8

6

4

2

0 7

5

3

1

Armed conflict incidences in Europe*

Sudan Iraq Colombia

Philipines Indonesia Angola

Myanmar (Burma) India

Israel Ethiopia

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states *Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

1946

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Global incidences of armed conflict*

1946

18

14

10

6 4 2 0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 16

12

8

Global incidences of armed conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths per year*

1946

25

20

15

10

5

0

1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Top 10 countries with the most incidences of armed conflict*

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict 9

8

6

4

2

0 7

5

3

1

Armed conflict incidences in Europe*

Sudan Iraq Colombia

Philipines Indonesia Angola

Myanmar (Burma) India

Israel Ethiopia

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict type 1 = extrasystemic armed conflict

Conflict type 3 = internal armed conflict

Conflict type 2 = interstate armed conflict

Conflict type 4 = internationalised internal armed conflict Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states

Conflict between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states on one or both sides

Conflict between a state and a non-state group

outside its own territory Conflict between two or more states *Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program Source: Uppsala University Conflict Data Program

90.000 80.000

50.000

30.000 20.000 10.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Terrorism fatalities (GTD, 2018) (deaths)

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart Source: Oxford University Our World in Data

Source: Oxford University Our World in Data Source: Oxford University Our World in Data

*Stacked chart Number injured from terrorist attacks (GDT, 2018 (injured (non-fatal))

Number of terrorist incidents (GDT, 2018) (incidents) 70.000

60.000

40.000

Global incidences of terrorism*

18.000 16.000

10.000

6.000 4.000 2.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Western Sahara Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia

South America North America Middle East & North Africa Eastern Europe

East Asia Central Asia Central America & Carribean Australasia & Oceania South Asia

14.000 12.000

8.000

Global terrorism incidences per geographical area*

50.000 45.000

25.000

15.000 10.000 5.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Western Sahara Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia

South America North America Middle East & North Africa Eastern Europe

East Asia Central Asia Central America & Carribean Australasia & Oceania South Asia

40.000 35.000 30.000

20.000

Global terrorism fatalities per geographical area*

90.000 80.000

50.000

30.000 20.000 10.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Terrorism fatalities (GTD, 2018) (deaths)

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart Source: Oxford University Our World in Data

Source: Oxford University Our World in Data Source: Oxford University Our World in Data

*Stacked chart Number injured from terrorist attacks (GDT, 2018 (injured (non-fatal))

Number of terrorist incidents (GDT, 2018) (incidents) 70.000

60.000

40.000

Global incidences of terrorism*

18.000 16.000

10.000

6.000 4.000 2.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Western Sahara Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia

South America North America Middle East & North Africa Eastern Europe

East Asia Central Asia Central America & Carribean Australasia & Oceania South Asia

14.000 12.000

8.000

Global terrorism incidences per geographical area*

50.000 45.000

25.000

15.000 10.000 5.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Western Sahara Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia

South America North America Middle East & North Africa Eastern Europe

East Asia Central Asia Central America & Carribean Australasia & Oceania South Asia

40.000 35.000 30.000 20.000

Global terrorism fatalities per geographical area*

90.000 80.000

50.000

30.000 20.000 10.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Terrorism fatalities (GTD, 2018) (deaths)

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart Source: Oxford University Our World in Data

Source: Oxford University Our World in Data Source: Oxford University Our World in Data

*Stacked chart Number injured from terrorist attacks (GDT, 2018 (injured (non-fatal))

Number of terrorist incidents (GDT, 2018) (incidents) 70.000

60.000

40.000

Global incidences of terrorism*

18.000 16.000

10.000

6.000 4.000 2.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Western Sahara Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia

South America North America Middle East & North Africa Eastern Europe

East Asia Central Asia Central America & Carribean Australasia & Oceania South Asia

14.000 12.000

8.000

Global terrorism incidences per geographical area*

50.000 45.000

25.000

15.000 10.000 5.000 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Western Sahara Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia

South America North America Middle East & North Africa Eastern Europe

East Asia Central Asia Central America & Carribean Australasia & Oceania South Asia

40.000 35.000 30.000 20.000

Global terrorism fatalities per geographical area*

For a detailed view of the individual graphs, please hover over them with your mouse pointer.

Technology risks:

Technology risk is a broad category made up of different components, which relate to technology itself or to the way technology is deployed, architected and used. In this analysis we focus on one of the main components of technology risk, namely cyber risk and cyber criminal activity.

This is a comparatively new risk category, with a dataset that comprises less than two decades. Even so, cybercrime makes headlines as a top-of-the-agenda risk for CEOs across different industries.

Future considerations

45 40

25

15 10 5 0 2004 35 30

20

Global number of cyber security incidences per method*

Poor security Accident Lost device Inside job Hacked

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Poor security Accident Lost device Inside job Hacked

4.5 4.0

2.5

Billions

1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2004 3.5 3.0

2.0

Global number of records affected by cybercrime per method*

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

45 40

25

15 10 5 0 2004 35 30

20

Global number of cyber security incidences per sector affected*

Web, tech Web, gaming Transport Tech, web Tech, app

Retail Military Legal Government, military Government

Financial App Tracking data Web, military Web

Telecoms Tech, retail Tech Military, healthcare Media

Healthcare Government, healthcare Gaming Energy Academic 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Information is beautiful Source: Information is beautiful

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart Source: Information is beautiful 45

40

25

15 10 5 0 2004 35 30

20

Global number of cyber security incidences per method*

Poor security Accident Lost device Inside job Hacked

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Poor security Accident Lost device Inside job Hacked

4.5 4.0

2.5

Billions

1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2004 3.5 3.0

2.0

Global number of records affected by cybercrime per method*

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

45 40

25

15 10 5 0 2004 35 30

20

Global number of cyber security incidences per sector affected*

Web, tech Web, gaming Transport Tech, web Tech, app

Retail Military Legal Government, military Government

Financial App Tracking data Web, military Web

Telecoms Tech, retail Tech Military, healthcare Media

Healthcare Government, healthcare Gaming Energy Academic 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Information is beautiful Source: Information is beautiful

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart Source: Information is beautiful 45

40

25

15 10 5 0 2004 35 30

20

Global number of cyber security incidences per method*

Poor security Accident Lost device Inside job Hacked

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Poor security Accident Lost device Inside job Hacked

4.5 4.0

2.5

Billions

1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2004 3.5 3.0

2.0

Global number of records affected by cybercrime per method*

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

45 40

25

15 10 5 0 2004 35 30

20

Global number of cyber security incidences per sector affected*

Web, tech Web, gaming Transport Tech, web Tech, app

Retail Military Legal Government, military Government

Financial App Tracking data Web, military Web

Telecoms Tech, retail Tech Military, healthcare Media

Healthcare Government, healthcare Gaming Energy Academic 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Information is beautiful Source: Information is beautiful

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

*Stacked chart

Source: Information is beautiful

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