Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook August 14 – August 20, 2014
Some increase in rainfall expected across West Africa during the next outlook period.
Many areas of Sudan have reported flooding, house damages, and displaced people due to continued heavy rains.
1) Since early June, seasonal rainfall has been both suppressed and infrequent across northeastern Nigeria leading to a strengthening of moisture deficits. While there is a chance for some relief with increased rainfall forecast during the upcoming outlook period, anomalously dry ground conditions are expected to persist, which still may negatively impact developing crops later into the season.
2) Although much of western Ethiopia has experienced favorable amounts of rainfall during the last two months and recent rains have improved in quantity in eastern Ethiopia, poorly distributed rains in parts of eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and northern Oromia have been consistently below-average since June.
3) A continued sluggish start to seasonal rainfall across much of Senegal has led to deteriorating ground conditions and growing early season rainfall deficits dating back to June. With little rain forecast for the upcoming period, rainfall deficits are expected to grow, potentially impacting cropping activities.
4) A delayed start of the seasonal rains has negatively impacted cropping activities along the Mauritania-Mali border. Light to moderate rains are forecast in southern Mauritania next week, which could maintain moisture deficits over local areas.
5) Heavy rains during the past few weeks have destroyed shelters, flooded producing areas, and affected several people over many parts of the Darfur and Kordofan areas of Sudan. With moderate to heavy rains forecast to continue next week, additional flooding is likely.
6) Heavy rains during the past two weeks have resulted in flooding and displaced people across the Unity state of South Sudan. Forecasts call for moderate rains, which can exacerbate conditions on the ground.
7) Heavy downpours during the past two weeks caused flooding, infrastructure damages, injuries, and displaced people across the Khartoum, River Nile, and Al Gazeira states. Potential for flooding remains high as heavy rains are forecast to continue over upstream Ethiopian highland.
Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
Increase in rainfall expected to continue in West Africa.
An increase in rainfall was observed in West Africa as moderate to heavy rains spread throughout the Sahel and many parts of the region during the past week (Figure 1). The heaviest (> 50 mm) rains were recorded over localized areas of Guinea Bissau, Guinea- Conakry, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad. Moderate to heavy rains were also recorded over northern Senegal and southern Mauritania, which helped to erode accumulated deficits associated with delayed onset of seasonal rains. Enhanced rains also fell over Nigeria, including the northeastern region, which had received poor rains during early period of the season. In contrast, typical little to suppressed rains were registered along the Gulf of Guinea region.
Rainfall anomalies over the past thirty days have indicated above- average rains, with positive anomalies exceeding 50 mm over the central parts of the Sahel. This included Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and western Chad (Figure 2). Enhanced southerly flow and associated low-level moisture convergence have brought moisture surpluses as far north as northeastern Mali. In contrast, below- average rains were observed over the westernmost portions of West Africa, including western Senegal, localized areas of southern Mauritania, and the Gulf of Guinea countries. In northern Senegal and southern Mauritania, crop conditions and moisture availability have been negatively impacted and may further degrade if good rains fail to return.
For next week, an increase in rainfall is expected to continue across much of West Africa. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast from central Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea Conakry, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, to northern Nigeria and Chad. This is likely to help maintain adequate soil moisture over many local areas for the current season. However, light (<20 mm) rains are forecast over far western West Africa, including northern Senegal, western Mali, and along the coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea.
Heavy rains caused flooding over many areas of Sudan.
During the past week, heavy rains resulted in flooding over many parts of the Darfur region of western Sudan, causing infrastructure damages, washed out cultivation land, and affected people. Farther east, heavy rains also left fatalities, destroyed houses, and affected residents in South Kordofan. To the northeast, downpours resulted in destroyed houses and displaced people over the Khartoum and Gazeira regions. Meanwhile, seasonal, heavy rains fell over western Ethiopia and western South Sudan, whereas moderate rains were observed elsewhere (Figure 3). The continuation of enhanced rains over western Ethiopia increases the risks for the overflowing of rivers along downstream areas of eastern Sudan. During the next week, heavy rains are forecast to continue in western Ethiopia, the Darfur region, and southern Sudan. Moderate to heavy rains are also expected over the western two-thirds of South Sudan. As a result, there is a high chance for new flooding and exacerbation of ground conditions across many flood-prone areas. Light (< 20 mm) rains are expected elsewhere.
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Valid: August 5 – August 11, 2014
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Valid: July 13 – August 11, 2014
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Valid: August 5 – August 11, 2014
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
