Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook April 11 – 17, 2019
Seasonal rainfall deficits strengthen over many parts of the Greater Horn of Africa during early April.
Enhanced rainfall fell over Namibia for the second consecutive week, but long-term drought conditions remain.
1) Prolonged seasonal rainfall deficits since the beginning of the southern African monsoon have negatively impacted the grounds of many countries in the region, including southern Angola, northern Namibia, southern Zambia, and northern Zimbabwe. Wilting conditions and dried up dams were reported over some areas.
2) Below-average rainfall since early to mid- February has strengthened moisture deficits over southwestern Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and northern Tanzania. The combined effects of poor rainfall and high temperatures are likely to adversely impact pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions over many areas.
Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
Rainfall continues throughout northern Ethiopia, with worsening conditions further south.
During early April, a decrease in seasonal precipitation over Kenya was observed following a brief period of more favorable rainfall during late March. According to gauge and satellite estimates rainfall, the highest weekly rainfall accumulations (50- 100mm) were received over eastern Tanzania and throughout Ethiopia in both the higher elevations and the Afar region, with more limited amounts (<25mm) registered throughout the Oromia, and Somali regions of the country (Figure 1). Further south, a widespread distribution of little to no rainfall activity was observed throughout much of Kenya, Somalia, northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, and parts of northern Tanzania.
The return to unfavorably drier conditions across many parts of southern Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and northern Tanzania has been untimely, as the highest rainfall activity climatologically occurs during this time of the year. With many areas experiencing both a delayed of poor start of season last month, the recently suppressed precipitation has resulted in a significant strengthening of seasonal moisture deficits during the last seven days. Analysis of satellite estimated rainfall anomalies depict a large area of below-average conditions, with many local areas experiencing less than a quarter of their normal precipitation since early March (Figure 2). Analyses of rainfall frequencies also suggest much of the anomalous dryness has also been associated with a low number of days of rain. Below average conditions have also begun to strengthen throughout southern Somalia, suggesting a delayed start of rainfall across the Jubba and Shabelle river basin.
During the next outlook period, models suggest little potential for moisture relief over the Horn, as the highest weekly rainfall accumulations are forecast over Ethiopia, with light to locally moderate amounts expected over Kenya, Uganda and northeastern Tanzania. The continuation of suppressed rainfall is likely to exacerbate moisture stress and negatively impact ongoing cropping activities for many areas.
Late seasonal rainfall received across southwestern Africa, and South Africa.
Following several months of significantly poor precipitation across southern Angola, northern Namibia and Botswana, late season shower activity continued for the second consecutive week, with well distributed amounts ranging between 5-25mm registered over the region. While the increase in moisture has helped to neutralized moisture deficits, particularly over central Namibia on the short term (Figure 2), the remainder of southwestern Africa remains adversely impacted long term dryness and drought conditions. Favorably late season increases in rainfall have also been observed throughout Lesotho and the Maize Triangle region of South Africa during the last seven days.
For the next seven days, models suggest a continuation enhanced rainfall over many southern Africa nations where precipitation is climatologically drier during the middle of April. A widespread distribution of light to moderate weekly amounts (10- 50mm) is forecast from southern Angola southwestward to South Africa.
7-Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Total (mm) Valid: April 3 – April 9, 2019
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
30-Day Satellite-Estimated Percent of Normal Rainfall (%) Valid: March 9 – April 7, 2019
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
