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Transition in the Dutch energy industry: steps towards a

low-carbon economy

MSc. International Business and Management

Cristina Popescu

S1941380

First supervisor

Dr. E.P. Jansen

Second supervisor

Prof. Dr. Ir. J. C. Wortmann

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SUMMARY

This research evaluates the transition process in the Dutch energy industry. The purpose is to find the most appropriate strategy the country can follow, so that environmental targets can be met while at the same time keeping its economic competitiveness and ensuring security of supply. The analysis is made at two levels: national and sector level, the second part focusing on the Built Environment sector. On the national level, The Netherlands, an important producer of gas, faces the challenge of valuing this economic resource and at the same time meeting its commitments of sustainable development made to the European Union. The most difficult task is reducing CO2 emissions by 30% before 2020. The findings indicate that the most appropriate strategy is investing in CCGT plants while following the plans for wind energy. This will achieve a positive balance between the three main pillars of sustainability in the energy sector: affordability, cleanliness and security of supply. As the Built Environment sector is one of the most important themes of the Energy Transition Plan, the second part of this paper focuses on how the targets can be met through the use of innovative technology. Results show that micro-generation, and in particular electricity-led micro CHP units operated by supply companies can be an efficient and affordable tool in meeting policy goals. The reason behind this is that a large scale development of such technology enables the use of

Netherlands’ gas resources as a transition fuel, increases efficiency of energy consumption and has a positive effect on the balancing market. In line with the previous analysis, conditions of affordability, cleanliness and security of supply are most favourably balanced.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Summary ... 2

List of abbreviations ... 4

List of tables and figures ... 5

Acknowledgements ... 6

1. Introduction ... 8

Initial research question ... 8

New research question ... 9

Structure of thesis ...10

2. Methodology ... 12

Use of literature ...13

3. Energy Transition in the Netherlands ... 16

3.1. The importance of gas ...16

3.2. Problems in transition...16

3.3. Options for low-carbon energy supply ...17

3.4. Dutch energy market structure ...19

4. Energy in the Built Environment ... 21

4.1. Transition in the Built Environment sector ...21

4.2. The imbalance market ...23

Programme responsibility ...23

The single-buyer market for RRP ...23

Imbalance settlement ...24

Current performance of the Dutch balancing market ...25

4.3. Microgeneration ...26

Smart-grids ...26

Micro CHP ...26

Scenarios for microgeneration ...27

5. Policy plans and instruments ... 29

6. Conclusions ... 31

References ... 33

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

BCM – Billion Cubic Meters

CCGT – Combined Cycle Gas Turbine CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage CHP – Combined Heat and Power ETS – Emission Trading Scheme FIT – Feed-In Tarrif

IEA – International Energy Agency LFC – Load Frequency Control LNG – Liquefied Natural Gas

MCHP – Micro Combined Heat and Power PRP – Programme Responsible Party PTU – Programme Time Unit

PV – Photovoltaic

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LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Table 1: Gas Reserves, Netherlands ... 31

Table 2: Economic evaluation of microgeneration ... 31

Table 3: Energy transition plans and instruments for the housing stock ... 39

Figure 1: Gas Production, Netherlands ... 36

Figure 2: Gas Production Forecast, Netherlands ... 37

Figure 3: Greenhouse gas emission targets, Netherlands ... 37

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This project was conducted with the support of the following three institutions: the University of Groningen, Energy Delta Institute and GasTerra.

University of Groningen

One of the oldest universities in the Netherlands, the University of Groningen has an international reputation for being among the leading research universities in Europe. This academic body has a special connection with the energy sector: not only is it situated on top of the Groningen gas field - the largest gas field in Europe and tenth largest in the world, but it also has close ties with the parties developing this field. Currently, the University of Groningen and companies like Gasunie and

GasTerra are cooperating in several energy related organizations like the Energy Delta Institute and the Energy Valley. Moreover, the Board of the University of Groningen has chosen “energy” as one of the key areas for its research and education.

The university has the role of a supervisor for the project, by providing feedback and guidance. At the same time, support is given by allowing access to relevant information through a large collection of books, academic journals and databases.

Energy Delta Institute

Energy Delta Institute (EDI) is an international energy business school, with a primary focus on natural gas as the fuel of choice towards sustainable energy business. The aim of this institution is to support organisations around the world in developing the knowledge and skills of their current and future management staff in the energy business with a primary focus on the role of gas. Founded in 2003 by, among others, N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie, GasTerra B.V., and the University of Groningen, EDI coordinates research projects and collects information related to the economic, management, legal and geopolitical aspects of the energy business.

The idea for the initial project was developed in collaboration with EDI, following the institute’s interest in the development of the Smart Grids and Micro CHP technologies. The EDI acted as a supervisor for the project by providing guidance and access to relevant information, such as academic research in the field.

GasTerra

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1. INTRODUCTION

The need for a transition to a low carbon economy is already becoming part of conventional wisdom. The topic stood at the forefront of the public and political agenda for many years, but significant improvement is yet to be seen. The question of what stands in the way of a clean energy supply and a faster transition process has captured my interest.

Initial research question

This research started as part of a project related to this topic: the energy transition process in the Netherlands. The project had the purpose of identifying the role gas will play in the future energy mix, given the government’s commitments to reducing fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions and increasing energy efficiency. The idea for the project was developed in collaboration with the EDI, and focused on transition in the Dutch built environment sector. The goal was to see how much technology can help in achieving objectives of energy efficiency and decarbonisation. The most appropriate technologies in this case, as suggested by the EDI, would be Smart Grids and Micro CHP units. Their properties are described in a later chapter.

The research question was if, in the future, investment in gas (as a fossil fuel) would still be an attractive option in the Netherlands. Focus was on investment in gas pipelines in the built environment sector. Two master theses were combined in this project, one concerned with the economic aspects (this one) and the other with the technical areas (written by a student in MSc. Industrial Engineering and Management).

The economic analysis regarded, first of all, the evaluation of investment costs. New technology usually requires high initial investments. We wanted to see how much more expensive it is to have an all-electric housing district (with no gas connection, only electricity) than a regular one. In the Netherlands an example of such all-electric district is Hoogkerk, where 25 interconnected houses are supplied with energy from sources such as wind turbines, PV panels, Micro CHP units and hybrid heat pumps.

The second step was to see how energy supply is affected. Supply from renewable energy sources is difficult to predict (it depends on weather conditions) and can increase imbalance in electricity. This subject is presented in a later chapter, where the negative technical and financial consequences of imbalance are explained. By using Smart Grids, imbalance can be potentially reduced. For the economics part we looked at the current volumes of imbalance and calculate corresponding costs. Then in the engineering part we further planned to evaluate, by using a computer simulation, how these volumes and costs would change by using Smart Grids and Micro CHPs. To answer the research question we developed scenarios to compare districts with no-gas infrastructure to those with gas and micro CHP. Based on the simulation results, a financial analysis would reveal the best option, and provide an answer for the research question regarding investment in gas infrastructure.

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question was answered, but by using instead non-quantitative results from another article, which also evaluates the effect Micro CHP and solar energy have on costs of imbalance.

New research question

The character of the thesis was modified, from an empirical analysis to that of a literature review. Following a discussion with Geert Greving, the Head of Public Affairs department at GasTerra, a new problem was identified that challenges the energy market in the Netherlands: that of a split

positioning between the industrial sector and the policy makers. A quick transition would help the government in meeting commitments made to the international community in terms of reducing fossil fuel use and lowering carbon emissions. A slower transition process would allow the industrial sector sufficient time to adjust. I decided to further investigate this topic and include it in the research. The structure of the paper changed, and a new research question emerged: what is the best strategy for the energy sector in the transition process? Such a strategy needs to be effective on all levels, so the previous results for the built environment are taken into consideration. If the same direction can be followed both at sector and national level then the strategy can be considered efficient. The analysis will look first at the high-level situation, the possibilities and constraints, then at those of the lower level, and seek to identify a possible common direction, that can serve as an answer for the research question. The main characteristics of these levels are briefly presented in the following paragraphs.

Deriving much of its revenue from producing and trading natural gas, the Netherlands is largely dependent on utilizing this resource to maintain its economic competitiveness. Given the international pressures for decarbonisation, however, the gas market had to adjust itself. The pressures come in the form of EU policies or as self-imposed national targets for sustainability in the energy area: increasing energy efficiency (and decreasing energy demand), reducing greenhouse gases emissions and including more renewable energy sources in the energy mix.

The negative effects of climate change and the need for a low-carbon economy are increasingly becoming conventional wisdom. However, the process of implementing emission reduction measures is complicated, and is often a cause for uncertainty and conflict between economic and political interest. The first most important set of measures was adopted in 1997 through the Kyoto Protocol, when a set binding targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction for the period towards 2020. In Copenhagen 2009 those policies were revised and a new set of measures emerged. At the EU level, the policy package included a new renewable energy directive, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) after 2025, effort sharing among EU countries to achieve 20% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020 and subsidies and legislation for carbon capture and storage (CCS).

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The Dutch energy policy is closely linked to natural gas, as for many decades gas has been the main segment of its energy system and represents an important income source for the state. Currently, gas dominates the Dutch electricity mix with a share of 60% [Energy White Paper, 2008], followed at a high distance by coal, with only 23%. Plans for increasing this capacity with 4GW of gas and 5GW of coal-fired generation show that the continuation of fossil-fuel dominance is a realistic scenario [Fuel mix in motion, 2008]. On the other hand, there has been serious public and political opposition against construction of conventional coal plants, which became an important obstacle to new coal capacity. Another controversial option, nuclear fired generation, has started to gain support among politicians given its low-carbon impact, the slow development of renewable sources and the recent gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine in January 2009. A breakthrough in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) linked to coal-fired generation could improve the case for coal from an environmental point of view. The Dutch government has also announced clear ambitions related to the

development of large scale wind, especially offshore (6GW). This will also have impact on the future configuration of electricity generation in the Netherlands and the role of fossil fuels in this respect, given the discontinuities in wind energy supply. Large investments are required in the coming years to make a significant step in bringing down CO2 emissions and to accommodate increasing electricity demand and decommissioning of old generation capacity. The next two to five years will be critical as large scale generation capacity projects have long lead times [Van Foreest, 2010].

On a lower level, the main sectors targeted for lowering CO2 emissions are: the build environment, industry/electricity, transport and agriculture. As mentioned above, the main policies set at national level targeted the Built Environment for energy saving and increasing the share of renewable sources of electricity. Therefore, this research will focus on Energy Transition in the Built Environment sector, and more specifically at the role micro-generation and smart metering plays in this process. These technologies were chosen as they seemed the best fit for the Netherlands, allowing the use of gas on the road to lowering carbon emissions and meeting national targets.

Structure of thesis

In the methodology chapter the initial project is presented, describing the initial research question, the steps planned in order to provide an answer, the division of tasks between the economic and technical parts and how they combined in the initial plan. It briefly explains which parts are kept from that plan, and reasons for switching to a new format (that of a literature review), the new research question and the consequent changes in the structure of the thesis. In the second part of this chapter the literature used is briefly analysed and it presents the way data was used (and the steps followed) in order to answer the research question.

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of the energy industry sector is provided that shows which would be the players most affected by changes in energy supply.

Chapter four focuses on the built environment sector, first by looking at what role this sector plays in transition process, what are the government plans set for it, what are the main expectations and what instruments (in terms of innovative technologies) are available for meeting those expectations. Next, one of the most important aspects in this area – security of supply – is evaluated, by presenting the implications of electricity imbalance, the parties involved in the process of imbalance settlement and the associated costs. Next the technologies selected (Smart Grids and Micro CHP) used are presented in more detail, followed by an analysis of their effect on security of supply (imbalance) and associated costs (imbalance costs and costs of allocation).

The following chapter looks at current policy plans for innovation in the housing sector, evaluating their potential for obtaining positive results in the transition process, and comparing them to similar programmes in other European countries that proved effective.

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2. METHODOLOGY

This thesis started as part of a project on the future role of gas in the Netherlands. The project was based on collaboration with a Master student at Industrial Engineering and Management, and the idea for the research question was developed in collaboration with Energy Delta Institute of Groningen.

The research goal for the project was to determine if, in the future, it will still be economically viable to connect new urban districts to gas grids. It started from considering the availability of Smart Grids and Micro CHP technologies. Because the concepts are still under development, and their influence is expected to increase in the coming decade, the determination of the above mentioned viability was set for the year 2020.

The project started from the following research question: Will it in 2020 still be viable to draw a natural gas pipeline to representative new urban districts in The Netherlands?

To answer this question a few stages were proposed, each of them providing an answer to a sub-question. There were the following sub-questions:

1. What is the difference between the investment costs of a new urban district with both an electric as a gas connection and a new all-electric urban district?

2. Focusing on electricity, what are the costs of imbalance?

3. Focusing on electricity, what is the effect of smart-grids on the costs of imbalance? 4. How much flexibility does mCHP offer?

5. Adding mCHP to smart-grids, what is the effect of smart-grids on the costs of imbalance? 6. Are smart-grids with mCHP economically viable?

The project was divided as follows: questions 1, 2 and 6 were part of the economic thesis, questions 3, 4 and 5 were part of the engineering thesis.

The purpose of the first sub-question was to determine if it is more expensive, and if so with how much, to draw electricity lines to an all electric district, compared to a traditional district which has both gas and electricity connections.

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project (the all-electric district) would not be made available, however, before the end of this year. Because of time constraints, we decided to consider the (official) information provided by Alliander as input data for the first step.

The second question was about imbalance. The process and its relation to the research question are described in a following chapter. To answer this question we turned to TenneT, the National Grid Operator. They provided us with the official data for volumes and prices for imbalance, available online on tennet.com. This information was the input data needed for the second step.

The purpose of sub-question 3 was to determine how much a smart grid would reduce this

imbalance, and consequently reduce costs. Sub-question 5 would also evaluate effects of smart grids, but this time with Micro CHPs in it, on imbalance, and see if this imbalance is further reduced. Both these sub-questions were supposed to be part of a computer simulation. This simulation had as an input the data provided in previous stages (first and second steps).

The results of the simulation would provide the necessary quantitative data for a financial analysis. This analysis would show if it is more expensive or not to have all electric districts, in terms of initial investment costs and expected returns. The method planned to be used was the Net Present Value, calculating the returns for the next 10 years to provide relevant results. These results would be then used to answer the research question. Because of delays in the research process, however, the simulation could not be conducted in time. As a consequence, no data was available for the economic analysis.

Instead of using the simulation results as planned, we tried to at least get them from KEMA, the institution behind the Hoogkerk project, an all-electric district in the Netherlands. The interview yielded some conclusions in terms of improved environmental effects and increased energy

efficiency. Unfortunately, figures referring to actual costs and prices cannot be released before next year.

A problem related to the scope of our research was identified through a discussion with the director of Public Affairs department at GasTerra. He explained about the current debate on the topic of Energy Transition in the Netherlands, and the existence of conflicting positions between policy makers and industry in the Netherlands. This stems from the need to meet political commitments of significant and quick CO2 reduction measures, so on one hand the government is in favour of a quick transition process; on the other hand, the large gas industry of the Netherlands would be negatively affected by such a quick transition, so the industry sector is in favour of a slower process, where gas still plays a significant role. A new research question emerged, concerned with finding the most adequate strategy to follow during the transition process, so that the interests of both sides can be balanced. The project converted from a quantitative to a more qualitative analysis.

Use of literature

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First of all, as Netherlands is a big gas producer and a large part of the economy is based on the gas industry, this paper analyzes the importance of gas in the energy mix, now but also in the future. For this, documents from public authorities are used, such as those published by the Dutch government: EBN, Energy White Paper, or international institutions: IEA, to understand the position of gas in the present, for information on consumption, production rates, reserve capacity and reliable future predictions. Press interviews and releases, such as those of the Minister of Economic Affairs (Maria van der Hoeven), Lankhorst (important figure in the gas trading industry) are also analyzed, as people with experience in the business have a better understanding of its situation and can provide a good insight into its dynamics.

Sources such as European Energy Review, independent press hub that analyzes movements on the european energy market and is formed by academics and others with a good insight into the business, but also articles from national research institutes such as Clingendael, CBS and ECN are evaluated that give a better picture of what happens inside the Dutch energy market, and the role gas has on this market.

To evaluate the choices for energy transition, publications such as IEA analyses (for a global picture) and Energy White Paper (for government plans), as well as releases by SenterNovem (a Dutch public research institute) are used. Together with reports from the research institutes mentioned in the previous paragraph (Clingendael, CBS and ECN) these documents are used for their information referring to emissions, costs, advantages and disadvantages of each option (be it gas with CHP, wind, nuclear or coal with CCS). For additional insight on alternative sources of energy supply, articles from peer-reviewed journals of independent researchers such as Van Foreest and Scheepers et. al. are used.

The project follows with an analysis of the industry sector, and for this purpose public documents from national sources (TenneT, government’s Electricity Act) and published researchers (Van Eck) are used, as well as outside sources (international reports IEA).

For a description of the plans for the Built Environment sector, public released from the Dutch Government (Energy Transition Plan), as well as analyses by national research institutes

(SenterNovem, CBS) were used. Critical evaluation of these measures is based on reviewed articles published by independent researchers (Beerepoot, Elsberger). An analysis of the sector is provided by Tambach, and information regarding energy efficiciency and emissions is extracted from

Elsberger, Sunnika and Beerepoot.

The analysis of the imbalance market is based on public documents from national institutions (TenneT, DTe, Electricity Act). Articles from Wenting, Van der Veen and De Vries provide insight into the imbalance settlement process.

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3. ENERGY TRANSITION IN THE NETHERLANDS

3.1. The importance of gas

First of all, we need to see what role gas plays in the transition process, why it is so important for the Netherlands, how it can speed up or slow down the transition process, and what are the arguments in favour or against using it in the future energy mix.

The need for energy transition in the Netherlands is closely linked to the role of gas in this process. This creates a split in positioning between the industry and the government. On one hand, the industry is in favour of a slow transition process, in which gas still plays a significant role. On the other hand, while being acknowledged as the cleanest of the fossil fuels, gas is nevertheless a source of CO2 emission, and as the government needs to meet its proposed policy goals of increased renewables and decreased carbon emissions in a very short period of time, they are presumably inclined towards a faster process of energy transition.

Significant consideration goes to the fact that gas is a big part of Dutch economy (Lankhorst, 2010). It currently constitutes about 60% of the electricity mix (Van Foreest, 2010). With a total production of about 70bcm, out of which only about half is used in national consumption (EBN, 2010), the

Netherlands is a net exporting country, deriving more than 10 billion EUR form this activity (Van Foreest, 2010). It also accounts for 35% of the total gas production in the EU (Van Foreest, 2010, BP, 2010).

Out of all this, the government gets half: gas is an important source of income for the Dutch

government, who owns 50% shares in gas fields assets (Van Foreest, 2010). On this note, it is obvious that the government would want to preserve the gas industry at a high state. This was even declared by Maria van der Hoeven, the Dutch minister of Economic Affairs, who says that in the future, there will be a strong focus on gas: “to make the Netherlands the great gas hub of North Western Europe”. Along with frequent international visits to countries renowned for their gas reserves such as Russia, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia made with the purpose to strengthen supply relations with these countries, one other major ambition is to create a competitive gas and electricity market, through full ownership unbundling (European Energy Review, 2009).

This shows that a quick transition to alternative energy sources is not necessarily the priority. For a fact, the Netherlands is already part of a few large future projects that focus on gas, such as the cooperation with the Russian giant Gazprom on the Nord Stream pipeline, which enable imports of Russian gas, and the BBL pipeline, through which gas is exported to the United Kingdom (European Energy Review, 2009).

3.2. Problems in transition

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investment to keep production levels up, security of supply and a decrease of long term contracts on gas.

The Netherlands’ own reserves of gas are running out, and production is expected to decline (EBN, 2010) (see Table 1 and Figure 1, appendix). If the current rate of production is kept, these reserves, estimated at about 1400bcm (EBN, 2010, Van Foreest, 2010) are expected to be depleted in less than 20 years (b10). Following this trend, by 2025 the Netherlands will no longer be a net exporter of gas (European Energy Review, 2009).

Therefore, a lot of focus is put on LNG projects (GTS, 2009, Van Foreest, 2010, Lankhorst, 2010, European Energy Review, 2009). This comes to prevent also a series of other anticipated problems, such as a less secure supply (decreasing from 92% in 2010 to only 70% in 2020 – GTS, 2009), an increase in short term contracts and decrease of long term ones (GTS, 2009).

Security of supply constitutes a serious concern for two reasons: increasing renewables will also increase imbalance, and in the future there will be a higher electricity demand. Although in the built environment demand is expected to decrease, because of efforts made for better insulation (Van Foreest, 2010, GTS, 2009), it is expected to increase in the industry sector, thus leading to an overall 15% higher demand in 2030 (GTS, 2009). Before the crisis, estimations were that electricity demand will reach 143 TWh in 2020, compared to 116 TWh in 2007, and according to b10, the crisis did not have a significant impact on this outlook.

Even if the focus is kept on gas, significant investments still need to be made. To benefit fully from this resource, a 1.8 billion euro per year investment is needed for a 30bcm level in 2030. This amounts to a total investment of 35 billion euro by 2030. With the current plans, production will be of only 10bcm in 2030, and if all investments are halted it will reach a level as low as 1bcm (EBN, 2010) (see Figure 2, appendix). For comparison purposes, current level of production is of 70bcm. So one can ask himself, should you invest in gas, or use that money better for renewable sources? The next chapter looks more into what each option has to offer.

3.3. Options for low-carbon energy supply

In this section, possible choices for the future energy mix are analyzed, looking specifically at advantages and disadvantages in terms of affordability and cleanliness.

The main challenges for the future of the energy sector consist of "securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and

environmentally benign system of energy supply” (IEA, 2008a). In other words, there are three main pillars: affordability, cleanliness and security of supply. Sustainability for the European energy sector is reflected in the European Commission’s policies for 2020 (also known as the 20-20-20 policies): reducing greenhouse gases emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels; 20% of EU energy supply coming from renewable resources; and 20% reduction in primary energy use, by improving energy efficiency (IEA, 2008a) (see Figure 3, appendix).

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emissions, to 30% from the 1990 level (compared to the 20% target of the European Union) (IEA, 2008b).

At the highest level, Dutch energy transition plans follow three main directions: increasing wind generated electricity, increasing decentralized CHP units in the industry and agriculture sector and embracing coal with CCS as a low-carbon technology.

Renewable energy plans for 2020 are mainly concerned with increasing wind energy to 10 GW, 6 GW offshore and 4 GW onshore. In case of onshore, this could lead to an annual reduction of 7.1 Mton CO2 if it replaces conventional coal and 3.6 Mton CO2 if it replaces CCGT capacity; for onshore, potential reductions are of 14.5 Mton and 7.3 Mton CO2 respectively [Van Foreest, 2010]. Other renewable sources are also taken into consideration, the most important ones being biomass and solar PV. Because of the economic, technological and regulatory constraints, however, they are less attractive than wind. Plans for biomass are of only 800 MW, and for solar 100 MW by 2020 [Energy White Paper, 2008].

Decentralized CHP units run on gas, and can produce electricity at high efficiency levels. Operation is mainly heat or steam driven, with electricity as by-product. Larger units are also used for district heating. Through the use of heat buffers and boilers, electricity can be used more efficiently and delivered back to the grid during peak hours at attractive market prices. In 2006, 45% of electricity demand was produced by decentralized units and this share is expected to increase.

Coal with CCS is the third main pillar of current Dutch low-carbon emission policies. The Netherlands is well-positioned for large-scale coal-fired generation with CCS, as it has an extensive gas

infrastructure, substantial potential storage capacity [Clingendael IEP, 2008], almost depleted gas fields and the presence of attractive production locations in coastal area. Despite its environmental controversies, coal is still recognized as a transition fuel in the Dutch generation mix. The

geographically spread reserves and cost advantages over gas make it an attractive source from the security and economic points of view. Application of CCS would significantly reduce its carbon footprint [Van Foreest, 2010].

Although a risky option, nuclear energy was put back on the table in 2008, when a debate among politicians began after publications from leading advisory bodies presented conclusive findings. In Finland and France, construction of a new generation of nuclear plants has already started. Today, the Netherlands has one 450MW nuclear plant in Borssele which will be phased-out in 2033. Nuclear energy scores reasonably well in terms of CO2 emissions. For European plants, emissions are

calculated at 8-32 g CO2/kWh; a little higher than wind at 6-23 g CO2/kWh [Scheepers et. al., 2007]. Uranium reserves are geographically spread and are estimated to cover current demand levels for the coming 70 years [ECN, 2007]. Investment costs are high, but marginal costs are very competitive. The main problems are indefinite storage of spent fuel, perceptions of safety and exposure to terrorist attacks. The current Dutch government stated that it will not decide on a nuclear option in this cabinet period (2007-2011). Considering the lengthy lead times, a decision in favour of nuclear will not materialize in new capacity before 2020. However, such a decision and subsequent

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The question arises, how should this be done? Energy transition, and more specifically a decision regarding the configuration of the future generation mix, is surrounded by many uncertainties and challenges, which can also affect the position of gas. To bridge the gap between 2.3% and 30% CO2 reduction seems very challenging in a timeframe of ten years. Clear and maybe controversial choices have to be made to make a step forward in the transition.

3.4. Dutch energy market structure

This section provides a brief description of the main players in the Dutch energy sector. First, a distinction can be made between public and private interests. The public interest criteria that

dominated debates in the Netherlands in recent years, and lie at the heart of current national and EU policy documents, are 'clean' (in particular reducing CO2 emissions), 'affordable' and 'secure' (Van Eck, 2007). These are in line with the three main themes of this research: environment, economics and security of supply.

The environment is obviously a case of public interest. The cleanness of various energy alternatives depends on their effect on the quality of air, water and eco-systems and the implications for human health, safety and welfare (Van Eck, 2007). In this project, the adjective 'clean' will be applied in relation to the environment, which will be quantified in terms of CO2 emissions and the volume of consumed fossil fuel (or percentage of energy generated from renewable sources).

As a disruption in electricity services would dislocate the whole of society, security of supply is a matter of public interest as well. Reports of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, which are based on TenneT reports (TenneT, 2005) focus strongly on generation capacity in relation to peak demand. The buyer needs to know what risk - per unit of time - he runs of not receiving the energy which he has requested. This risk is being influenced by: costs, possibilities and risks across the whole chain, from e.g. the extraction of fuel, in case of fossils, to the delivery to the buyer; the total generation and transport/distribution capacity in relation to demand; the foreseen and unforeseen prospects of failure of the various technical components of the system that are needed for conversion and delivery (Van Eck, 2007).

The energy market in the Netherlands began the process of liberalisation in 1998, once the Electricity Act came into effect. Before the Electricity Act, production and supply were coordinated by SEP, a joint-stock company composed of four large electricity companies: EPZ, EPON, UNA and EZH (Van Damme, 2003, IEA, 2008b), who also managed the transmission grid. At present, transmission is done independently from generation and supply (Electricity Act, 1998), and the whole process is supervised by the Office of Energy Regulation (Energiekamer). The relation between supply and demand can be evaluated on two levels, physical level and business level. On a physical level, there are producers, grid operators and consumers, while on the business level we can identify four more players: traders, distributors, Programme Responsible Parties and the trade market.

Producers

In the Netherlands, electricity comes mainly from non-renewable sources such as oil, coal and gas, out of which gas has the highest generation share of 60% (IEA, 2008b). Other sources are

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There are five large producers of electricity, which together manage over 70% of the installed capacity: Essent (21% market share during peak hours); Electrabel (22%); Nuon(16%); E.ON Benelux (9%) and Delta (4%). The rest of 30% is produced by a large number of small companies active in the market.

Grid operators

The national grid is managed by TenneT, appointed Transmission System Operator (TSO) by the Office of Energy Regulation. TenneT manages the 110kV, 150kV, 220kV and 380kV grids.

Transmission of electricity at voltage levels of 150kV or less is conducted by Regional Grid Operators (RGOs) (tennet.org). The grid operators are in charge of the electricity lines, and their tasks include installing, maintaining and managing the transmission and distribution grids.

Program-responsible parties (PRPs)

The PRPs are parties that have one or more connecting points to a grid. They are in charge of the Energy Programmes: predicting next-day electricity supply and consumption levels, which are presented to TenneT. When there are differences between the volume agreed on, and the actual measured volume imbalance occurs. This has financial consequences for the PRPs (imbalance settlement) (tennet.org). They stand between traders and grid operators.

Traders

Traders buy electricity directly from producers, or from energy suppliers or the APX. They seek to buy and sell electricity at prices that are as competitive as possible.

Suppliers

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4. ENERGY IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Transition in the Built Environment sector

The strategy chosen for the national level needs also be reflected at lower levels. In this section we will therefore look at the built environment sector, and see what role it plays in the whole transition process, and how it can be set in line with the plans at the national level.

The most optimistic expectations regarding of meeting sustainability targets are for the built environment sector [Van Foreest, 2010, GTS, 2009]. However, because stationary sources account for more than three quarters of Dutch CO2 emissions [CBS, 2009], the built environment represents an important theme in the Energy Transition Plan (see Figure 4). Approximately 12% of these

emissions come from Dutch households [Elsberger, 2008]. Even though it offers a large energy saving potential [Sunikka, 2006], the existing Dutch housing stock still exhibits a low energy performance level [SenterNovem, 2008c]. Because there is little structural cooperation between different actors in the mainly project-based building sector, a broad scale adoption of energy efficiency measures fails to occur in the existing Dutch housing stock [Beerepoot, 2007].

It is clear that investments need to be done to meet the targets, but the question is: by whom? Dutch municipal governments (governments and municipalities) depend on the cooperation with private investors, because they do not usually own buildings [Tambach, 2009]. In January 2007, about 53% of the Dutch housing stock was owner-occupied [CBS, 2009]. As a reference, we can take the case of other countries. About 35% is owned by housing associations, which own a large share of social rented dwellings. A similar situation can be found in Sweden, Finland, France, Austria and the United Kingdom, where housing associations own 22%, 17%, 14%, 11% and respectively 8% of the housing stock [Itard and Meijer, 2008]. In these countries, unlike in the case of Netherlands, municipal governments own between 17% and 1% of the housing stock. In general, housing associations and municipal governments are seen as important players in the transition process towards a more energy efficient housing stock. Housing associations play an important role as investors in the housing stock and they are well-organized compared to owner- occupiers. We can see that most responsibility is in the hands of housing associations. But besides economic and financial aspects, they have to pay attention to another aspect, very important for the buildings sector. This is small scale security of supply, reflected in electricity balance.

In the Netherlands, all new residential and commercial buildings constructed after 2020 must be, according to government plans, climate-neutral. A lot of hard work is required over the next 12 years to ensure that this objective comes within reach. This also primarily requires major process

innovation in the construction sector. In 2020 the energy consumption by existing buildings should be reduced by at least 100 PJ.

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These goals, as well as those set at the national level of increasing the share of electricity generated from renewable sources, can be achieved by using micro-generation (micro CHP) and including wind and solar energy into the electricity mix. The main problem, however, is caused by the

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4.2. The imbalance market

The importance of paying attention to imbalance was described in the previous chapters; this section expands on the topic and provides insight into the relationship between imbalance, electricity supply and the built environment.

The Dutch imbalance market has three main elements: Programme responsibility, the single-buyer market for regulating and reserve power (RRP), and the imbalance settlement process [Van der Veen and De Vries, 2009]. Programme responsibility is defined by the Dutch Electricity Act (2007), while the bidding and dispatching rules for RRP and the settlement of imbalances are set forth in the Grid Code and the System Code, which are part of the secondary energy regulation in the Netherlands (DTe,2005,2006).

Programme responsibility

Programme responsibility requires connected parties (electricity producers and consumers with a connection to the electricity network) to inform TenneT about the electricity volumes they will buy and sell for each Programme Time Unit (PTU), so that TenneT is able to maintain the system balance and settle imbalances justly. A PTU is fifteen minutes long, which means that there are 96 PTUs per day. In order to be allowed to make use of the transmission network, a connected party must be recognized as a Programme Responsible Party (PRP). PRPs submit Energy Programmes (E

Programmes) and Transport Prognoses (T Prognoses) for each PTU to TenneT in a prescribed electronic format. In an E Programme, a PRP specifies the planned net volume that he intends to inject into the grid or withdraw from it through ‘his’ grid connections, per PTU. In a T Prognosis, the absolute transport volumes and relevant Grid Supply Points are specified. They are not needed for balancing, though, but for transport planning and congestion management.

PRPs are charged for any deviation from the planned net volumes that were specified in the E Programme (see imbalance settlement), while T Prognoses inform TenneT about expected system load in different parts of the network. Final versions of E Programmes must be submitted to TenneT at least one hour before the PTU of operation (TenneT, 2006; Wenting, 2002). It is attractive for PRPs to have responsibility for many grid connections, both production and consumption, because this improves their ability to predict actual net volumes and to balance internally. That way, they can minimize their deviations from their E Programmes. Currently, there are 30 PRPs with full rights, and 26 PRPs with trade-only rights.

The single-buyer market for RRP

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time for regulating power no more than 30 s (TenneT, 2003, 2006). In practice, PRPs perform this task as well.

The difference between regulating power and reserve power is that regulating power is

automatically deployed through the Load Frequency Control (LFC) system, while reserve power is deployed by the supplier after an instruction by TenneT. The LFC system involves an automatic electronic signal (a so-called ‘delta signal’) from TenneT to RRP suppliers for activating the necessary volume of regulating power. In contrast to reserve power, regulating power should have a response time smaller than 30 s. RRP suppliers are free to choose their bid prices, but bidding is competitive. The RRP bids with a dispatch time of fifteen minutes or less are ranked on a bid ladder, per direction (positive or negative) and in order of increasing bid price. To resolve a system imbalance, bids of positive power are deployed by TenneT in order of increasing bid price, and bids of negative power in order of decreasing bid price. RRP suppliers of positive power that is deployed receive the dispatch price for positive power, while RRP suppliers of negative power that is deployed pay the dispatch price for negative power. The dispatch price per direction is the bid price of the marginal bid in that direction that is needed to resolve the system imbalance in that direction (TenneT, 2005). If the volume of RRP is insufficient for resolving system imbalance, TenneT can deploy emergency power, which is contracted separately. Its price is higher, in exchange for continuous availability.

Imbalance settlement

The process of imbalance settlement consists of two parts. The first part is the settlement of the individual imbalances of Programme Responsible Parties. For this process, the net imbalance volume of each PRP must be known, along with the imbalance prices. The imbalance costs for each PRP are his imbalance in MWh multiplied by the imbalance price in euro/MWh. For each PTU, new imbalance prices and imbalance volumes are determined. The imbalance prices follow from the dispatch prices in the market for RRP; the imbalance volumes are the differences between the planned net volumes in the E Programmes and the allocated net volumes.

The second part of the imbalance settlement process is the allocation process, by which actual production and consumption are allocated to each of the Programme Responsible Parties. The electricity consumption of many consumers, especially small consumers, is not measured

continuously. Based on their consumption patterns, these consumers are assigned one of several consumption profiles. These profiles provide an approximation of their moment-by-moment consumption and are used for allocating their share of imbalances. Because these profiles are not fully accurate, a process has been established for allocating the actual consumption of profiled consumers. The volume that is withdrawn by these profiled consumers is derived by subtracting total metered consumption from the metered total feed-in. In combination with a Standard Yearly

Consumption (SYC) that is known from annual metering, an assumed consumption volume can be determined for each profiled consumer per PTU. In the allocation process, the total consumption of profiled consumers is allocated to the relevant PRPs based on the relative proportions of the total assumed consumption of the group of profiled consumers under responsibility of each PRP (PVE, 2003).

For electricity producers and consumers with a telemetry facility, the actual net volume injected into or withdrawn from the grid is metered per PRP. This way, all production and consumption is

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balancing power is used when the system imbalance is positive, and vice versa. When both positive and negative RRP has been deployed, the price for positive power is the imbalance price for PRPs which have a negative net volume difference and the price for negative power is the imbalance price for PRPs which have a positive net volume difference. When no RRP has been deployed, the

imbalance price is based on the ‘middle price’: the average of the lowest bid price for positive power and the highest bid price for negative power (Wenting, 2002). PRPs that have a positive net volume difference (PRP surplus) are expected to have sold this to TenneT, and therefore receive the imbalance price. PRPs that have a negative net volume difference (PRP shortage) are expected to have bought this from TenneT, and therefore pay the imbalance price (TenneT, 2005). This stimulates market parties to have a surplus rather than a shortage, which contributes to the system balance.

Current performance of the Dutch balancing market

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4.3. Microgeneration Smart-grids

That Smart-grids can offer solutions to balancing issues and that Smart-grids fit European energy policies is presented in the European Technology Platform SmartGrids by the EC Community

research. This followed Towards Smart Power Networks, where different smart-grid research projects where evaluated. [Amin, 2005] support these findings, but in the context of the United States. A smart-grid is an electricity grid on household level where: the connected users can both consume (buy from the grid) as well as produce (sell back to the grid) and become a so-called prosumer; the price of the electricity can differ over time; the connected users can have smart appliances in their household that automatically change their usage behaviour corresponding to the price of the electricity.

A fourth property could be that the prosumers can cluster to become more powerful, but this will depend on how the system will be constructed, which in turn depends on the role of the electricity distributor. The role of the electricity distributor in the smart-grid can be very prominent, letting all the electricity trade go under their governance or it can be fairly diminished, enabling prosumers to trade mutually.

Because of the mentioned properties of a smart-grid, the imbalance can decrease. This is because if there is imbalance, the distributor will alter its prices to the small prosumers, connected to the smart-grid, who can change their consumption or production behaviour accordingly.

It should be noted that not only an advanced electricity grid can be called a smart-grid, but also an advanced gas grid or a heating grid or even the combination of an electricity, gas and heating grid. In this research the term smart-grid only applies to the electricity grid.

As stated, an important problem with solar and wind energy is that it cannot guarantee a continuous and predictable supply. When used in a smart-grid for small prosumers, it will not enable the

prosumer to answer to the changing prices, because they cannot influence the level of wind or sun intensity. Solar and wind energy will thus probably only increase imbalance, rather than decrease it. As presented in [SenterNovem, 2008b] a number of innovated appliances are currently being

presented which can use the smart-grids architecture to decrease imbalance, as they follow the third property of the smart-grid: they change their behaviour according to the changing electricity prices. One of them is the Micro CHP.

Micro CHP

Micro CHP (micro-Combined Heat and Power) is a concept or technology derived from CHP. Micro CHP in households are most likely interesting because households consume both heat and electricity. The different technologies for the engine, such as a Stirling-engine, a gas-motor or a fuel cell are evaluated, currently in favour of the Stirling-engine for the Dutch Micro CHP market.

This enables Micro CHP to support the development of smart-grids that are based for an important part on renewable sources, while it can support balancing at the same time.

The question that arises is to what extent applying a Micro CHP in a smart-grid changes the

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answer, because currently most of the economics of smart-grids on household level are unknown. The lack of knowledge is even larger on the account of smart-grids combined with Micro CHP. So to enable rational decision making, concerning whether a new urban district should be connected to the gas grid, this need for knowledge should be answered. The result should be based on realistic estimations of the development of the Dutch energy market.

Scenarios for microgeneration

This section is linked to the initial project plan, in terms of scenarios, effects on imbalance and cost effects.

One of the sub questions of the research was to indicate in which way the imbalance would be affected by using smart grids and micro CHP. Because this could not result from our simulation due to time constraints, results will be based on an analysis of the same type made by [F3]. Their research consists of a qualitative scenario analysis on large scale development of micro-generation in the Netherlands. Micro-generation was defined as ‘power generation at the level of households and small businesses’. Four scenarios are derived: Scenario A, where micro-generation consists of PV cells, Scenario B with micro CHP units operated to meet the demand of heat, Scenario C with micro CHP units operated to meet the demand for electricity, and Scenario D, with micro CHP units operated by the supply company, instead of the consumer-generator, operated to meet demand for electricity.

PV and micro CHP are considered the two micro-generation technologies with the highest residential application [Choudhury and Andrews, 2002]. A set of performance criteria is established, according to relevant policy and market evaluation documents [DTe, 2005, PVE, 2003, TenneT, 2005, 2006, Wenting, 2002]. These are scaled from 1 to 3. Out of these, relevant for this research are the criteria which reflect economic aspects of operational performance: imbalance costs and costs of allocation (imbalance settlement criteria). The imbalance cost is given a weight of 2, as these costs are the main financial outcome of the balancing market, providing the incentive to prevent imbalances and offer regulating and reserve power. The allocation cost criterion is considered least important for the operational performance of the balancing market and is giver a weight of ‘1’.

The analysis assumes every Dutch household has a smart metering facility, as the Dutch government decided to have smart meters installed in every household [Energie Nederland, 2007], and because the roll-out can be expected to be completed before the large-scale penetration of micro-generation in the Netherlands.

The operational performance of the balancing market is valued for each scenario. The performance with respect to the above criteria is rated on a scale from -2 to 2. The sign and magnitude reflect the estimated direction (positive or negative) and the size of the effect, as compared to the current situation. The results of this analysis are shown in table 2 (see appendix).

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In scenario B, households control their micro CHP units in order to meet their heat demand.

Imbalance costs decrease because of lower volume of system imbalances. Costs of allocation are high because of the expensive nature of data collection and processing from households every fifteen minutes.

In scenario C, consumers let their micro CHP units follow their electricity demand. Differences between the heat production of the CHP unit and consumers’ heat demand are met with

supplementary boilers and heat storage tanks. Due to the lower volume of imbalances and the extra competition in the market for regulating and reserve power, imbalance costs are low. The rationale for costs of allocation is the same as in the other scenarios.

In Scenario D suppliers control the micro CHP units to maximize the economic value of their electricity production and supply. This removes uncertainty regarding the way in which households would react to price signals. Therefore the role of micro CHP in the electricity market is expected to be the largest in this scenario, leading to maximal predictability and RRP provision by the micro-generation units. Total imbalance costs are low because of a much smaller number and volume of system imbalances. Costs of allocation are the same as in the other scenarios.

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5. POLICY PLANS AND INSTRUMENTS

In their research, Van den Heuvel et al. 2010 draw attention to the need of a good correlation between international, national and industry level strategies and policies. In order to be efficient, policies set at the international level (in this case at the EU level) should provide member states with tools to manage national strategic environments for market participants that help them in their strategic approaches to the EU market. In the process of creating an international level playing field for the energy industry, companies are faced with a series of national and EU market designs in which they shape their strategies for certain member state markets and decide on their overall EU approach. This shows that major policy decisions and changes in the energy environment need to be in line with the different stages of market development.

At the European level, member states had already adopted the Kyoto targets (1998), implemented a directive that included non-binding targets of energy production from renewable energy and introduced the emission trading scheme (ETS). After 2007 more ambitious and longer-term targets were proposed. These would require a fundamental change in Europe’s energy system. Recently, not the environmental concerns but more those related to security of supply had been the drivers behind tighter environmental requirements on the energy sector [Van den Heuvel et al. 2010]. Reducing import dependency by promoting alternative energy resources such as wind and sun are the main pillars of the new energy strategy. However, in the short run, a shift towards renewable energy could have negative impacts on energy security by causing instability in the electricity grid, requiring significant changes to the energy infrastructure which could take a long time to realise.

The main current plans for energy transition in the housing sector are: Clean and Efficient (2007), Energy Transition Plan PeGo (2007), More with Less, National Energy Saving Plan (2007), Energy Saving Existing Building (2008) and Energy Saving Covenant Housing Association Sector (2008). These are briefly described in table 3 (see appendix).

Comparing these policies to those of other countries (in the same domain), Tambach et al (2010) tried to see how well these can fulfil the needs of local actors and consequently lead to the adoption of energy efficiency measures by these actors. Results show that Dutch energy policy instruments focus more on communication and innovation, and they need to be supported by more traditional and long term policies. According to municipalities, there is a need for stable and long-term oriented rewarding systems: one for RET deployment and RES-E production, and another for the recovery of energy efficiency investments in housing renovation projects. The complimentary policies will therefore stimulate the creation of a structural market for energy saving and deployment of renewables. There is also a significant lack of specialist knowledge in this sector, which also contributes to the slow progress in this direction. Apart from this knowledge problem, however, there are four main points regarding the need for change in the state policies.

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created a system of permanent and fixed allowance rated for RES-E producers, e.g. for 20 years of PV-generated electricity. As a consequence, the adoption of PV panels, and the development of integrated and standardized building components will increase.

There is also a need for a stable and long term oriented financial rewarding system for energy efficiency investments in housing renovation projects. Together with banks, the government could establish a fund and offer low-interest loans to investors in energy efficiency measures in existing buildings. To increase their trust, these subsidy schemes will need a longer application period and a shorter granting procedure.

Thirdly, in order to stimulate renovation measures, the French model can be adopted, of lowering the VAT rate specifically for this type of projects.

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6. CONCLUSIONS

The research covered two levels of energy transition, in search for a common strategy that can effectively balance the need for a clean environment with those of security of supply and economic competitiveness. It started with an analysis of opportunities and constraints at the national level, followed by an evaluation of the built environment sector.

The targets for year 2020 set by the European Commission called for CO2 reduction, an increased level of renewable energy supply and more efficient consumption. There are four main choices for a cleaner energy supply suitable for the Netherlands, all of which imply investments: coal with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), nuclear energy, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) and wind parks. Out of all these, taking into consideration the need to value its own gas resources, the Netherlands could follow the path of replacing old coal plants, which are high carbon emitters, with gas fired units, which also run partly base-load, and focus on wind energy by building large offshore wind parks. Because gas is a relatively clean and efficient source for power generation and a CCGT plant emits 50% less CO2 than a coal fired plant and runs at higher efficiency levels, investment in CCGT plants appears to be the best option. Gas will also provide sufficient back-up to manage intermittency of wind energy, so the third condition of secure supply is also met. For the 2020 targets to be met, the government will need to implement a clear regulatory and financial framework in the close future, to allow the realization of its offshore wind plans.

To keep a strong position of gas in the transition process, a longer term policy needs to be evaluated. Although gas can have an important role in power generation in the transition phase, the fact that national resources are depleting puts current production and export policy in a different perspective. An increasing demand in the power sector will be partly offset by a correspondent decrease in household and commercial demand, but the importance of an energy transition which includes CO2 reduction and energy security will probably require a different allocation of national gas resources: if gas is considered as an important transition fuel and the Netherlands does not want to depend too much on imports after 2020, production and exports will have to be reduced to decrease the depletion rate of indigenous resources.

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REFERENCES

Amin, M. (2005), 'Toward a smart grid: power delivery for the 21 st century', IEEE Power & Energy Magazine 3(5), 34--41.

Beerepoot, M., 2007. Energy policy instruments and technical change in the residential building sector. PhD Thesis Delft University of Technology

BP, 2010. Statistical Review of World Energy

CBS (Statistics Netherlands), 2009. More owner than tenant-occupied houses in the Netherlands. Webmagazine 29 January 2009

Choudhury, W., Andrews, S., 2002. Payment mechanisms for micro-generation Ilex Energy Consulting, Report Number K/EL/00282/REP.

Clingendael International Energy Programme, 2008. Carbon Capture and Storage: A reality check for the Netherlands

DTe, 2005. Systeemcode–Voorwaarden als bedoeld in artikel 31, lid 1, sub c van de Elektriciteitswet 1998

DTe, 2006. Netcode–Voorwaarden als bedoeld in artikel 31, lid 1, sub a van de Elektriciteitswet 1998 Dutch Electricity Act, 2007. Wet van 2 juli 1998, houdende regels met betrekking tot de productie, het transport en de levering van elektriciteit (Elektriciteitswet 1998. Version of June 3, 2007 EBN, 2010. Focus on Dutch Gas

ECN, 2007. Fact-finding nuclear energy

ECN, 2009. Monitor Clean and Efficient Program

Elsberger, M., 2008. Presentation ‘EU Energy Policy for Buildings – Recast Directive proposed’ Energie Nederland, 2007. Landelijke uitrol slimme meter kan eind 2014 rond zijn Newspaper article, Energie Nederland.10 (7) 3.

Energy Council, Fuel mix in motion: looking for the right balance, January 2008

European Comission, 2005. Towards Smart Power Networks: Lessons learned from European research FP5 projects

European Comission, 2006. European Technology Platform SmartGrids: Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of the Future

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IEA, 2008a. World energy outlook

IEA, 2008b. Energy Policies of IEA Countries: The Netherlands 2008 Review

Itard, L., Meijer, F., 2008. In: Towards a sustainable Northern European housing stock. Figures, facts and future. Sustainable Urban Areas 22. IOS Press, Amsterdam

Lankhorst, G., The role of natural gas in the energy mix of the future, speech Huis Clingendael, The Hague, August 2010

Ministry of Economic Affairs, Energy White Paper, 2008, June 2008

MVROM (Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment), 2001. Nationaal milieubeleidsplan 4; Een wereld en een wil: werken aan duurzaam- heid. The Hague

MVROM (Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment), 2007. New Energy for Climate Policy: The ‘Clean and Efficient’ Programme. The Hague

MVROM (Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment), 2009a. Voortgang van de 13 acties voor de gebouwde omgeving uit het werkpro- gramma Schoon en Zuinig

MVROM (Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment), VROM- Inspectie, 2009b. Rapportage Gebruik en betrouwbaarheid energielabels bij woningen.

PeGO, 2007. Energy Transition Plan

PVE, 2003. Profielenmethodiek Elektriciteit–Versie 3.04

Scheepers, M.J.J., Seebregts, A.J., Lako, P., Blom, F.J., Gemert, F 2007. Fact-finding nuclear energy SenterNovem, 2008a. Energy Innovation Agenda

SenterNovem, 2008b. Actieplan Decentrale Infrastructuur: Actiepunten en initiatieven vanuit de netbeheerders om decentrale toepassingen in te passen in de energievoorziening

SenterNovem, 2008c. Majority of houses still eats up energy

Sunikka, M. 2006. Policies for improving energy efficiency in the European housing stock. PhD. Thesis, Delft University of Technology

Tambach, M., 2009. High-ambitious local climate policies to reduce CO2 emissions: municipal strategies to approach homeowners in the Netherlands, OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies, TU Delft

Tambach, M., Hasselaar, E., Itard, L., 2010. Assessment of current Dutch energy transition policy instruments for the existing housing stock, Energy Policy

TenneT, 2005. De onbalansprijssystematiek per 01-01-2001, herzien per 26-10- 2005

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Van den Heuvel, S., De Jong, J., Van der Linde, C., 2010. Energy company strategies in the dynamic EU energy market (1995-2007), Clingendael Energy Paper, May 2010

Van der Veen, R.A.C., De Vries, L. J., 2009. The impact of microgeneration upon the Dutch balancing market, Energy Policy

Van Eck, T., 2007. A new balance for the energy sector, Industrielinqs Pers en Platform

Van Foreest, F, 2010. The role of natural gas in Dutch energy transition, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

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APPENDIX

Table 1: Gas Reserves, Netherlands

Source: EBN, 2010. Focus on Dutch Gas

Figure 1: Gas Production, Netherlands

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Figure 2: Gas Production Forecast, Nehterlands

Source: EBN, 2010. Focus on Dutch Gas

Figure 3: Greenhouse gas emission targets, Netherlands

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Figure 4: Anticipated GHG emissions by sector, Netherlands

Source: MVROM, 2007. New Energy for Climate Policy: The ‘Clean and Efficient’ Programme

Table 2. Economic evaluation of microgeneration

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D

Imbalance costs -2 2 4 4

Costs of allocation (imbalance settlement criteria) -2 -2 -2 -2

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Table 3: Energy transition plans and instruments for the existing housing stock

Policy Actors Targets Quantity

Clean and Efficient: new energy for

climate policy Public CO2 reduction in 6–11 Mton/year

2007–2020 Central government built environment

Improvement of 2%/year in course of

energy efficiency time

Reduction ofgreenhouse 30% reduction

gas emissions compared to 1990-

level, preferably

on European level

Increased share of From 2% to 20%

renewable energy (RE) in

overall energy use

Energy transition Public–private Reduction of fossil fuel consumption 80% reduction by

Plan PeGO PeGO by buildings 2050, compared to

(followed from PeGO 1990-level

Clean and Efficient)

2007–2050

More with less Public–private

(followed from PeGO)

Plan (2007) National Energy Saving Plan (more with Additional reduction of 100 PJ/year by

2008–2020 less) energy consumption 2020 on top of 2007 policy

initiated by: target* through

PeGO, Dutch federations of: national approach,

housing associations (Aedes), aimed at a 30%

energy companies (EnergieNed), average reduction in

construction sector (BouwendNederland), 200 000–300000

installation sector (UNETO-VNI) existing dwellings and

other buildings/year.

(* energy consumption

built environment of

1140 PJ/year in 2020)

Covenant (2008) Covenant ‘Energy Saving Existing Building’ Additional building-and installation- At least 100PJ by 2020 with regard 2008–2020 (More with Less) signed by: related reduction of energy to ‘Referentieramingen energie en

Minister of the Environment and Spatial consumption emissies 2005–2020’ by ECN

Planning, Minister of Housing, Communities

and Integration, Improvement energy performance By 2011 at least

Minister of Economic Affairs, Dutch dwellings and other buildings* 500 000 existing

federations of energy companies dwellings and other

(EnergieNed andVME), Bouwend * By removing barriers for home and buildings upgraded to

Nederland, UNETO-VNI building owners to invest in energy Dutch B-label or by at least 2steps

saving & ‘sustainable energy’ in label, 100 000 dwellings supplied

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(Covenant, p.5)

Energy Saving Public–private Additional building-and installation At least 24 PJ by 2020 with regard to

Covenant Housing related energy-saving social rental ‘Referentieramingen energie en

Association Sector Minister of the Environment and Spatial dwellings emissies 2005–2020’ by ECN

(followed from Planning, Minister of Housing, Communities

more with less) and Integration,Woonbond (Dutch Upgrade major renovation dwellings 2008–2020 federation for tenants and tenant to Dutch B-label (energy certificate)

organizations), and Aedes* or take at least 2 steps in label

* By signing this covenant, Aedes joined the ‘Housing costs guarantee’: realized More with less Covenant. In their 2007 saving on energy costs on housing statement ‘Answer to Society’ Aedes had complex level higher than rent

promised to save 20% on the use of gas in increase by measures

the existing social rental housing stock

between 2008 and 2018

Source: Tambach et al., 2010

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